 The following is a presentation of TFNN the morning market kickoff With your host Tommy O'Brien Everyone this is Teddy Keckstedt and I'm filling in for Tommy O'Brien today. Welcome to the show on September 11th Of course, we all know what anniversary this is. I was somebody who was in the S&P 500 pit in Chicago at the time when the When the planes hit the World Trade Center so that we definitely on the floor were impacted by that When it happened right off the bat because people were on the phones and stuff like that So definitely sympathies to the families and survivors from that event from that day So anyhow, we have a very busy week to talk about for the markets We have some interesting numbers coming out that should impact the S&P 500 in the NASDAQ We also have yields that are going to be probably in play. We have a Fed meeting that's approaching We have a lot of economic data that's coming out on Thursday and Friday that we have to be aware of And also we have the Bank of Japan that had some Information and talk that came out today that's very interesting and we'll get into that later because it's definitely shaking up the US dollar yen relationship So outside of that We do have Once again the numbers on Thursday very critical Economic numbers also for some of the other currencies like the British pound also are coming out that are going to be very impactful And also for the Australian dollar So Wednesday night into Thursday Friday morning I think you're gonna have a lot of activity in both the dollar index and also the yields So the Treasury bond market the ten-year market I would also expect for them to have a lot of action and then obviously once again the S&P's I think especially is going to have a lot of swings now Is it going to be a trend move anything's possible? But I would definitely expect a lot of volatility Especially in your stock indexes come Thursday and Friday So for you those of you that are equity traders and options traders especially I think you're gonna have a lot of opportunities coming once you get through After the economic releases on Thursday morning, especially and once the stock market opens on Thursday morning as well as on Friday as well I think for a Friday you're gonna have a lot of opportunity remember we are coming into quarter-end as well So I mean we still have a few weeks away, but we do have option in our futures expiration also that's coming up in the next couple of weeks So between that all those different variables. I think you can expect to see a lot of volatility Especially and also a lot of opportunity as well. So and I think those are things that you want to take advantage of Over the next guy that definitely towards the end of the trading week today and tomorrow I think the expectations should be a little bit lower But once we hit Wednesday especially and I think after tomorrow on once we have a little digestion of what happened with the bank at Japan today as well I think that's gonna have maybe start to see some trickle down into the markets on Tuesday I'm getting ready for Wednesday and Thursday and Friday's numbers. So so those are the key things to Take a look at and be mindful of as we start off our trading week So what else we need to look at the key events also for today Oracle earnings are expected after the close today Right now. I think you want to be the expectations right now are pretty much set and probably are gonna be Spot-on on that. I wouldn't expect any major fluctuation either to the negative or the positive on that one Let's see Apple reveals its latest product launch as What that according to web bush this week, so that's gonna be something that's gonna be probably impacting that stock I know it's kind of funny like I one of the stocks that I mean people always ask me about equities in different markets But when they ask about stocks, it's usually very random about there's so many equities out there But lately I've been asked about Apple by so many people So which is very odd so an intent once again It's also in the news today for something to be aware of another stock to watch It would be Tesla also on the move potentially this week and then also a couple other sleepers would be Stock MGA and also BWA. So those are also things to look at. Let's see. What else we have And then also one thing to pay attention to is we do have a small yet US Treasury auction today It's only three year notes, but right now the short end of the curve is driving the yields So I think that's something that maybe we should pay attention to this afternoon It may actually cause a little spike in the interest rate market that might give the S&P is a little bit of a jitter too So that would be at 1 p.m. Eastern time as well So pay attention to that so right after lunch if it's quiet look for that little spike of activity coming in at that moment And then let's see what else do we have? some other things for Consumer stocks to take a look at instacart CART that's one I would take a look at you might see some volatility in that one as far as directional plays I don't want to put put any stance on that one, but I think you could play have some good volatility option plays especially if you're trading on the next 25 to 45 days for expiration. Let's see what else for energy Industrials and materials I would take a look at air AAR Corp, which is AIR and also Astra Space ASTR Those are some things that are kind of on the on the radar coming up that I would take a look at and then also for healthcare I would look at Signature group that's CI and also Astra Zeneca AZN as far as where you may have a little bit of option volatility Those are I'm gonna I think Kevin Hinks might be coming up at the in the second segment this morning So if he is those are maybe I'll have some questions for him or he may have something to say about those equities Let me see if there's any questions on the discord here. I'm sorry folks. I'm trying to fill in for Tommy and watch all these things Okay, so let's see We don't have any questions in the chat last week I was watching them and they are doing this show and I wasn't watching the chat enough. So, okay Not to delay on that one. All right, so anyhow We should have a chart up here that you can see and as before the break I wanted you to see how the US dollar Japanese yen started out today it gaped With a lower open obviously right now. It's a red Candlestick that means it's a negative on the day. It's off its lows. It's right in the middle of its range and Maybe Kevin Hinks when he comes on to he might have something to say about the BOJ and how that might be impacting us come The next couple of weeks of trading especially as we head into our own Fed meeting as well So and you can see that there's a reaction as far as this Currency pair where the US dollar yen is trading negative because right now according to what their chairman equivalent chairman said was that they The the dovish Outlook for the BOJ is now Becoming an option to take off the table. So does that mean they're gonna get aggressive not by any means But when when you look at what they've done especially since this new Leadership has come into the BOJ remember there was a turnover of leadership in April into May for the Bank of Japan and since then there was a couple of moves in fact you can see on the chart that We had the little rally here in May This was the logitry here his first little speed bump was when the new chairman started speaking And since then you can see obviously the trend has been strong, but that's because we've had Rate hikes from our own Fed. So that fundamental has been in place now the fact that they might become hawkish and that's very possible. We'll talk about that after break If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter You should try Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and Technicals sign up for rocket equities and options report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee So you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your subscription today visit the front page of TFNN comm TFNN educating investors Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market To stay on top of stock patterns You can take advantage of sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com When you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all He's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking Expect notifications from Larry on market movement You need to act on at any time first-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee If you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today TFNN.com educating investors Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 Finishing it number two for the year an amazing accomplishment Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge Every day in his mastering probability newsletter Steve's award-winning newsletter Mastering probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon sign up for Steve's market newsletter Mastering probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars Absolutely free at TFNN all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee So you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit TFNN.com and try mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today TFNN educating investors TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den hosted at Discord TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours The Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigris's for just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this Educational community of traders just visit the front page of TFNN.com Hello, this is Teddy Kecks again filling in for Tommy O'Brien And I believe we have Kevin Hinks on the line. Are you there Kevin? Or is he not calling in today and thought he was supposed to be online that for this segment Okay, I guess Kevin Hinks is not on this Okay, so we have the crude oil futures chart up You can see that we made new highs last week everybody knows what crude's doing because they When they go to the gas pump they can see where prices are I've been actually in multiple states over the past few days and It's nice to see that gas prices are lower than they are in Illinois It's because we have higher taxes but outside of that they're high everywhere So it's definitely been more expensive at the pump than it has been all summer and now we're heading into the winter months. Yeah, so anyhow, we have The market hitting some pretty strong resistance and I think that right now We're it's pretty mixed up this morning that you might expect to see a little bit of a profit taking slide in oil Am I looking for the market to turn? Absolutely not but just as I mean we had originally earlier a couple weeks ago a price target around the 84 area With the 87 year pretty much where it's at right now is our extended price objective Does that mean it's not going to trend higher? I think they're the bull right now is the trend so you have to be not it definitely mindful of that But right now it's not unlikely to have a correction in a slight little pullback especially if we start to see a little bouncing yields and we have some other Economic data that's gonna come out. So we'll see how that comes out especially on Thursday and Friday There's some things that can be start to become restrictive for demand for oil if that is becomes the case Then we could see a nice little correction now as far as how far of a correction I would say off the last swing low to the current high that we could easily come back to this area of around Let's say right around the 50% area right here of around 82. Is that a big big move? Not really if we were to have say some sort of big Economic data for that wouldn't like to say that we're gonna have a potential slowdown like we're transportation stocks start to wane and And and also factory orders and production orders and consume is if consumer demands and things like that start to wane Especially as we're heading into the end of the third quarter beginning of the fourth quarter That could impact the price of oil. So as far as then I would say we could probably come back towards this last Swing major swing low but as far as do we have any major slide coming up for oil? I doubt it I think really that what you're gonna have here is a floor in the upper 70 area So I would expect that gas prices and oil prices will remain pretty much where they're at through the winter season for the next Three to six months or higher If we were to have anything lower than that say below the 77 area Then I would say Christmas is coming early and I don't think that's gonna be the case Not that it couldn't happen But because considering all the deals that are going on now at the Middle East as well as the Devaluation of the dollar in international trade It's it especially in oil. That's that's becoming a very big factor And that's gonna impact the price of oil especially domestically as we head into the end of the fourth quarter and into the first quarter of next Year, these are things that nobody's factory into as far as long term Price projections for oil and I think it's really something you need to start to focus on because the the currency Differential to begin with is gonna start to put a big spin on the price of oil And it's not gonna have anything to do with dollar strength it's gonna have to do predominantly with other currency strength and as that new Mechanism starts to be you know damaged the petrol dollar people need to be aware of that So the only thing that I think it could really combat that would be if we actually increase supply Through further drilling and increased production, which is definitely not on the table for at least The next couple of years and obviously if we don't have a change in leadership in Washington It's gonna be locked on the table for at least the next Five years in which case that means I would expect to see Probably will see a hundred plus dollar oil be the regular norm where the floor is now We're really wishing that we were trading at where it is right now And that's something you want to look at as far as transportation stocks As you move forward especially into the third and fourth quarters remember you have Besides the market mechanism going on with the valuations of these companies. It's their production and Their ability to produce their ability their services as far as the trucking and moving things around the country now if we have Sales that start to wane especially moving into Christmas time in third quarter If we don't have good results from like the like the school sales and things like that for fall Then I would be very mindful that we're probably going to see that reflection come Christmas time and with the inflation and commodities and that's something I talked about with Tommy a couple weeks ago Is you have to watch the CRB index because if we see inflation in commodities over the next few months, which Probably with food you won't so much if anything there might be some deflation because especially with corn being such a bumper crop this year And so much such a high yield so early that may pad some of the food end of the CRB But something like oil heating oil Especially that's gonna become a very big issue Especially think about if we have a harsh winter or just a cold winter in the Northeast Especially or in just or even in the Northwest where people rely on heating oil especially The price of heating oil is gonna give can easily double in a very very a short amount of time If that is the case that's gonna impact obviously demand in the consumer sector You're gonna see people really tightening up their purse strings especially come when it comes time for you know What are you gonna buy for Christmas? You know this might be the year you know not to to make a joke of a no movie line But Johnny might little Johnny might not be getting the GI Joe with the kung fu grip this year because let's be faith Let's face it. You know inflation has not gone away. So we're watching the numbers to see what kind of Things happen with that Over the next few months, and I think once again like I started the show out with You have to pay attention to Thursdays and Friday's numbers because if they're remotely inflationary That is starting to bend the curve back up in a direction that The consensus said we were we were pulling back from you know, we hit the last couple of months people said oh inflation is not so bad It's not running at the rate that it had been well that may be possible It may be true, but it doesn't mean that inflation didn't didn't cease to exist So and now if we have an uptick in inflation, what does that mean? That means it's gonna be really hard for the Fed to not remain at least hawkish You know in their outlook for the next three to four or five months because if we start to see a reversal of what? Everyone said for the last two months was happening meaning that we're actually now going backwards Well, then the Fed is not gonna be come neutral let alone dovish That means hawkish will be on the table and we will probably see besides One-quarter point. I think we still have every bit of three quarters or a full point between now and the first quarter of next year That was not on the table people have been saying that's the wrong kind of thing It's not gonna happen anything can happen and especially with the numbers the way they're looking right now I think you have to really think in those terms. Why would the Fed back off? Especially think about this the boj if they start to become hawkish. They haven't been hawkish They haven't been anything in decades the fact that they're just coming off of the dovish Perspective is something that's huge for them. That's gonna impact the yen's relationship with other currencies Does that mean it's gonna completely alter the dollar's? Strength in the trend right now absolutely not but I think you're gonna start to see much more of a Swinging activity meaning that where we've been we've been in a zone for the past couple of months for a lot of markets Where even if they're trending they're very choppy and tight they're grinding either up or down So I'm here's a break the gold report as A precious metal gold is still king It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market The US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange the gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU HUI GDX the dollar bonds the South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations the gold report New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to risk Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at tfnn.com currencies commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the Volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Keg stats tiger 4x report Teddy Keg stat breaks down the 4x markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures 4x stocks and options Teddy releases his weekly tiger 4x report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs Including the dollar index the euro dollar pound dollar dollar Swiss dollar yen as well as many more And he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year t-bonds as they both influence 4x markets tremendously When you sign up for the tiger 4x report, you also gain instant access to teddy 60 minute webinar archive He just hosted 4x strategies and fundamentals What is behind the tiger 4x report for all the details and to start your 30 day tiger 4x report subscription today Visit the front page of tfnn.com tfnn educating investors Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis And it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you Make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor You were born to be tfnn educating investors Don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day Go to tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv. That's tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv Hello, everyone. This is teddy kexted. I'm filling in for tommy o brian today And I think we started finally have some kind of communication lines going properly So one of the stocks I mentioned before was a a Or a i r which is the a a r corp As you can see this market. It's on it's low I hope you guys can hear me. Okay, because i'm getting a lot of feedback now So, uh, anyhow, uh, the the market is making new lows as you can see So for any of you options traders out there It looks like we have some opportunities with some volatility There was a lot of support as we can see in this area where it's trading around this 57 81 area So let's just see in a fib level Where we're at. Okay. So this is a good support area This 0.382 is usually when the trend is solid This is usually where you hold before you bounce back up to when you have another strong leg higher So trading below this area here is pretty negative what I would say right now. It would be a good play would be When if you look at Down here 0.618 if this is I mean, this is obviously in a bold trend if this market was to Remain in a neutral to higher area then this would be the range excuse me 55 to 58 here where it should find a bottom Obviously right here. This is a key swing low I would expect that if it takes out this little lower area of the 57 quarter area Let's see what's the low 57 30 excuse me Then you probably have a good chance of breaking down towards this 56 to 55 handle area for the stock Once it gets in this area if it's obviously neutral to a bowl Still we'll probably find a base here. So what kind of trade would you put on here as far as buying the stock? I would say wait and look to buy lower put some orders in probably um somewhere in the 56 to 55 50 area as far as if you Were holding the stock And taking profit is probably now or you should have this would have been the area to have had a little protective stop in case The market was pulling back for options trade though. I think you have a good straddle or strangle area right here That just looking at this move here I work the way it's making this low and the way it has in the past It doesn't seem to hang on this area for too long if that's the case And we come down to the 55 area. Let's say you do the 57 81 I can even try and pull that up real quick Let's see if I pull in trading Let me see what kind of option price and we get here See if I can pull this up alive. Okay. Here we go. We have a ir And let's see an option An option. Okay, so we're gonna do it by the open I'm trying to get you some quotes here. So right now for the straddle if you do, let's say the october Expiration, which would probably be a good time because remember we're coming into the end of third quarter So if you have window dressing a lot of profit taking or even adding on to positions happens right around that That that time window which we're coming into so I would expect a lot of volatility or opportunity to get in or out of the spread So the market's at 57. So let's see if there's a there's a 55 There we go 55 55 or 60 We want the I guess we would go with the 60 Yeah, let's go with the 60 strike price Or we can even do the 60. Yeah, that's 60 55 There we go the 60 55 call And the 55 Put okay, so for an october expiration where you put the 60 dollar call and the 55 Dollar put so instead of a straddle or a straddle or rather do a strangle So we have the higher option would be the call the lower one is to put since it's in a bull market Right now the pricing you can get this off and it would cost $645 right now because it's $6 and 45 cents So to put on this at this level right here, so I mark here's where the market's at We'll mark this at yellow and then we're gonna put We have the 60 so let's do it real quick like this It's a little off But you guys get the idea So here's our bandwidth right here All right, so we know that odds are if the market breaks down to where the put strike price is The put would go up in value the call would go down in value There's a chance for it to get down there once it gets to that area Would it bounce very likely so you could get out of that? That option okay, so let's see why is that sorry Sorry about that little feedback folks All right, so now we have once again if the market breaks down to the 55 area between now and expiration you would have the ability to Probably break even on that at least If it goes the other way and it remains a bull especially if it gets back above 60 Well now you're looking at where you can make some of some really good money because of the fact that right now You're spending more for the call than the put to begin with So if the bull comes up the put you're not going to lose very much on the put and you're going to gain that much quicker So we have all you have to do is move we know by expiration You have to be six dollars six and a half dollars away So that means you have to either be at let's see six and a half So you'd be at 51 30 or you'd be at um 63 67 20 or see me 63 20 so 63 20 puts you below this high, but if we take out this high here If we get the rally Look at what happens if we breach this up this downward sloping trend line keeping the correction intact That would be a very bullish indication that this market's going to break out So if you trade the october or even if you go out even to further out one more month on this I think that this would be a good uh strangle play not straddle play You could do the straddle. In fact, I can give you the pricing on that one real quick That's not a hard thing to do All right, there we go. So that would be 830 So for the pricing on this one, especially considering you're doing your it's your the market the trend is your friend And you're taking pretty much a volatility Play with a directional bias because you know that right now If the if the bull remains and the trend remains intact that the market's most likely is going to go higher It's going to be neutral to higher in which case you would rather have the cheaper put that you could have So you're more you get more bang for your buck, especially if you're right On this one, um, if you're wrong, uh, then you you're going to need to have a definitely a bigger slide That's where you come into an issue where if this correction just goes towards that 55 area and you do a regular straddle That could be a case where you're going to have to get out at watch that trade because once it gets that area You may have to scratch that trade right away because if it hangs there, you're going to end up Losing a little bit of money. You would still recoup money You would not lose everything because your put would be have a decent value, especially if once you get Below 55. So in that case that trade would be the way to look at that one Let's see. Um, what was the other one I had for you? We had Let's see. What was the other one we put on the watch? We had a i r Um, and then we asked for it. Let's try with this to take a look at this one. So you were giving you guys a little Freestyle. Oh, here we go. Now. Here's one. It's interesting. This one is beat up Okay, so let's see what's going on Um mix security shelf files 100 million. Okay All right, so they did some financing. It looks like that that may cause a nice little spike In trading here, so let me pull up that train that little option train astr Okay, we've got a break right now. We'll see you in a bit You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball. 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This is teddy kextet filling in for tom o bryan and We were just talking about in stock trade and since i'm on the show for the whole hour I'm going to do my normal segment when I come and visit him on wednesdays And I'll see you guys next wednesday or this upcoming wednesday So I have the dollar index chart up and as you can see it ended the week kind of just hanging below its highs Starting to run out of a little bit of steam A corrective rally is definitely something that would be a nice normal thing to see a little profit taking slide We have some like I said interesting things going on with the bank of japan The yen we already spoke about so now we're going to switch over to something else We're going to go to the euro u.s. Dollar now the euro u.s. Dollar has been slamming lows for obviously quite some time It's been getting really hammered We have a sell signal that was in place to was triggered back here a week and a half ago We're very close to our target. We had adjusted our stop now already down to um a We have a break even plus A few pips profit and we're going to be lowering it again Later this week as it hangs on these lows and if it pulls back and corrects to it Well, it's profitable trade. If not, we're looking for an area around 106 39 still to get down to Even with the bank of japan making their thing going on We know the feds coming up considering we have the economic numbers This week for the euro we do have some coming out What is it tomorrow and also on thursday and then obviously we have our numbers that are coming out The heavy ones on wednesday or thursday and friday So these are all things that could impact the euro u.s. Dollar odds are it's going to keep our fed leaning towards a hawkish stance ECB is going to force their hands to pull the trigger Probably they're going to have to do something But what can they really do they're out of bullets and it's they're they're really backed up against the wall So I would expect to uh Be right now remain in a sell rally forecast for this euro u.s. Dollar currency another currency that's getting beat up Is the british pound u.s. Dollar however today obviously you can see that it's getting a nice lift That's probably why the u.s. Dollar index right now is only slightly Lower on the day the index that is um because you have the euro which is only slightly You know In different on the day But the pound here is starting to show a rally and then you have the u.s. Dollar yen So those three currencies right there Are having nice little bounces against the dollar But as you can see it's not really impacting the dollar index too much because those are the ones that are really in play also Those the british pound and the euro those are the ones that have the most amount of numbers to pay attention to this week Just like the u.s. Dollar so those three currencies right there are going to have I would expect They see the most volatility and the most potential for daily range as well So something like the pound you can see how um just like how all the markets gapped Stronger against the dollar today. You can see how the pound did the same thing Now it did come all the way back to where it closed on friday But as you can see strength is there and now it's all the way back by its highs So I would expect this momentum to carry through into tomorrow's trade Right now. This is this is a counter trend move So you can only view it as a correction no matter what like I would be very cautious trying to say that the dollar is peaking And it's making its high Unless we see the federally changed stance. I don't think that's going to happen Um, let's see. We have a question michael mega falls. Um, we have a caller. All right guys put the caller on Is see on the chat Good morning. Good morning Morning, uh, I wanted to continue the saga of the polar suati vis-a-vis the u.s. Dollar sure depreciated again since we last spoke and uh I just wanted you to have any upside targets for for the polar suati Okay, that I can uh, let's figure it's put out on a monthly here for you Okay, so we definitely remember when we spoke last week because it was the end of august We had this buy signal right here. So right off the bat on a monthly basis Let's see you have Last month right here this triggered here a bullish and golfing line. So just on that trade on that signal alone And especially because we're talking about a monthly basis here I would say that This initial area here the 0.382 around four dollars and 37 cents area It's probably gonna be your first area of resistance You can see that when the market had ran up the first time and pulled back This was a support area. We usually were support becomes resistance and vice versa So I would expect that this will be the area that's going to have maybe a little profit taking and make it a little choppy But remember we're talking about a monthly basis So as far as how high can it go? If this is only a corrective move, okay, meaning that Uh, this is actually in a bear markets. Now if you look at this currency the u.s. Dollar PLN here has been in overall It's in a bull market, you know, you're coming off a major swing higher swing high This lower that it made in july is a higher swing low So as long as this remains in place here the overall trend no matter what is bullish Okay, so now as far as the volatility Last week we had the three quarter point rate hike. I believe is what they had that day. That is a catalyst for sure They they he lowered it the the polis central anchor, correct lowered it. I'm sorry lowered it, correct They're losing the polls or something it's an election october 14th or october 15th for the european senate or something and uh, uh, They're worried or whatever. So he dropped the rate And so now we got what call uh, what do you call a bear rate on the polis swati? So that's why I'm calling you up because I would like to know how high could this is what you go visa visa u.s. Dollar Okay, well that's Especially since You're doing it. There's a counter trade there with the interest rates since they Correct, they pulled back. Okay, meaning they cut rates three quarter of a point Especially since our we're looking for our fed to at least do a quarter point in the next meeting or so That alone should help to drive this market all the way back up to its highs Okay, because fundamentally speaking Absolutely, it could do that because if we go up if you don't if they remain on just a flat to even remotely another rate cut Okay, you realize that that's a huge differential in interest rates between That the polish central bank and the and the federal reserve for the united states And especially if we do a quarter point with an expectation of another quarter point or more I I would say absolutely you could see those highs. I mean this is on a monthly basis. Let's go back to the weekly basis here Okay, so if you look at Where was it in october? Okay, so this was this high right here Was in the market that was october of last year. That was when our yields They were on their highs right now our yields are still lower than they were last october We've had multiple rate hikes since then and the reason that the market pulled back was because the consensus was that the fed Was going to stop by now They haven't stopped by now and there's there's no end in sight right now if we have Inflationary numbers in the united states for instance, let's say that we have Inflationary numbers on thursday and friday. Okay, and especially unemployment claims go down Meaning going against what the fed wants. Yeah, I would see you could easily go back to the october highs of last year Is it going to happen in the next week or two? No, I mean look at how long it took just to break down here But long term. That's where I see it going for sure. Okay. How about geopolitical? Let's say, uh Putin's Putin's moving those nuclear weapons to Belarus. Okay, and lukashenko the last great dictator of europe He's made some threats, you know, and he starts doing some favor rattling and then you got The Wagner group say doing some border skirmishes with poland You just need to get back to five say by end of october I would say by sometime in november. Yeah, absolutely end of october might be a little bit of a breach Okay, thank you. You're welcome the gold report As a precious metal gold is still king It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the london otc market the u.s. 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Dollar canada was triggered on friday a dark cloud cover Which has the market looking to probably take out the last swing low over the next week or so Pete the tiger forex support. These are things that I cover I don't typically look at single bars and themselves except for something like a dark cloud cover or A piercing line or either a bullish or bearish and golfing line. Otherwise, they're multi Multi candle patterns that I use and also I only use them for instance in a situation where they're trending into those Candles as well. I highlight that in my book high probable japanese candlestick patterns We just recently did a webinar for stock and option trades on how to use them like that Yeah, I'm talking about the the construction of an individual candle for example If a market opens up Uh sharply higher with a gap And then they by the close The closes lower than the open in one method that is a A red bar because the closes below the open Correct method. It's an open candle or it's a closed Hard hard green candle, but it's still a green candle because the close is higher than the previous day's close And therefore the volume on that day would be added to positive volume as opposed to Uh, so there's two different methods in the creation of an individual candle and I'm wondering which one you prefer Well, the one the the one you're talking about I've never seen or used that that doesn't make sense because if the market gaps Like you can see on the candle here it gap lower even if it ends up positive if it's below Um, the previous day every bar stands on itself from this close and it's open It doesn't have anything to do with the previous day as far as the color So, um, I would do the the conventional way, which means that with the opens above the close It's positive. Well, okay Well, uh, that's interesting because then that means all your candles are Solid colors and and I prefer the open ones as a possibility You're you're looking at that's that's changing the view of what they mean those they're they're they're they're shaped in a certain way So you have that expectation of what really transpired you're you're breaking it down for a different view I'm not saying that it doesn't work. That's just not how I would be able to use your patterns Though they would the candles aren't formed in the same method Right. Yeah All right. Thanks. Yeah, you're welcome. No good question. That's a very good question. So, um, and uh, yeah, that was that was uh, Very interesting. I haven't heard that one before. Um, but everyone has you know, whatever works is right What's right works for you is all that matters, you know So but I wouldn't be able to use my conventional patterns if Candles were formed in that way which gets back to data You know, you get what you pay for if you have bad data You're going to have bad trades. You got to make sure you're using a good trading platform and have Decent data feed as well. So and yeah, once again, we have a cell signal in the US dollar canada That should probably get the market down to maybe test these lows here overall for a correction We could probably get down to this one 33 area 30 33 half area That's if we have a longer term weekly and monthly correction But on a daily basis, I think we could still sell off into next week and especially with the way the numbers are going If uh, that we could go probably over the next two sessions and come near the support area by the swing low So we'll see what happens with that trade We've had an interesting show. Once again, it's september 11th Please have some reflection at some point and remember those that uh, Parished in that uh, just that catastrophe and as well as all the people, you know that in new york that um For everything that they had to go through from the cleanup and the destruction and everything So, um, it did happen. Don't forget that it happened. Remember that we should all be very grateful and thankful for what we have