 Good morning, it's really great to be here. I love Istanbul and I've been working in telecom Related businesses for the last 12 years as a futurist Many of you probably don't know what a futurist is anybody know what a futurist is Okay, a futurist is somebody who's looking forward The next five to ten years and then working backwards to reinvent what people do this famous futurist like Alvin Toffler that you may know from the history of Futurism, and there's also people like Ray Kurzweil who are infamous for their futurism My work is very much focused on the next five to seven years And the key question really is what is going to happen in five to seven years that will help you reinvent your business today and When I was preparing for this event One thing that is for certain of course is that risk will increase That's probably not new to you But given that everything in technology is now exponentially faster and bigger Some of the things that we're seeing every single day. They look like science fiction If you look at movies like minority report Blade Runner Oblivion, you know some of those things in those movies are actually real now for example real-time language translation is here You can use an app called say hi remember you may have a tried that sometimes two dollars for this app, right? It's very powerful. You can speak in real time and have it come out in 24 languages in real time and the other way round This is true science fiction the other day. I was in Japan ordering sushi. I was speaking in German She heard it in Japanese. She responded in Japanese. I heard it in German in real time Then there's things like big data artificial intelligence You know almost every single web product that we use from Google Maps to Google now to of course Amazon Netflix Has artificial intelligence in it Which means it emulates what people used to do I'll give you some great examples on this the way I things are going so my job really is This expresses my job very easily. I Take very complex scenarios and I bring them down to the hello It's not working. Okay Have to go back to the old-fashioned way of hitting the button. I guess Nope Sorry about that We tried this earlier. There you go Okay, so bringing complex things down to the bottom line and of course, you know the telecom business is pretty complex About one third of my work is in telecom working with carriers and technology companies and the other one is media Marketing and tourism a few other key terms My company is called the futures agency in our motto is it wasn't raining before Noah when Noah built the Ark and This is something that we use a lot to talk to people Because when you're doing well, it's actually a good time to think about the future You know when I worked in the music business I used to be a musician and producer and later on on the Internet. I Worked with the record labels 1999 to say, you know, the music is going to move into the cloud And music will be just a click on a button and then you get music In 1999 they said that this is it may be true, but we don't like this We don't like the idea of technology doing this, right? So they refused and what do we have today? We have 71% decline on revenues in music because it happened anyway So we're going to take a couple live polls and I assure you that the Internet here is not working very well I'm sure you've tried so if you have 3g and you can roam and better better off if you're using that We're doing some live polls and you have all you have to do is go to this web page If you have a smartphone Paul ev.com slash future with Gert. We're not doing a poll now. This is just for heads up, okay But I on this system I have 250 slots for voting So if I only see 14 people voting then I know you haven't voted and you know what happens if you don't vote You don't get lunch Anyway, so we have rapid digital transformation in all sectors of society Worldwide really and it's interesting to see that the so-called developing countries I've taken the lead actually on some of these changes and Some of the business models I'll talk about are actually perfectly suited for developing countries rather than developed countries This transformation is things like Imagine you have a bookstore Today if you have a bookstore people come to your bookstore. They look at the book and they scan the code with their phone Then they go to Amazon where the book is three times as cheap So rather in Switzerland you go the bookstore It's 40 Swiss francs like 30 euros you go to Amazon in the store and order it for six euros and That is pretty much happening everywhere now in many restaurants that you go to the waitress has been replaced by an iPad So this is actually a big trend in restaurants you fire half of the waiters You use an iPad to order and the other people bring in the food You shortcut this the Google self-driving car you familiar with a self-driving car It's gonna be a while before it gets real But assisted driving for example driving on a highway in a chain of cars That's already becoming reality. So rapid transformation starting with the original worldwide web 1984 of course Now this is a major driver of change called big data Show you familiar with that But big data basically means today means that we have a huge growth of data But we're only using like zero point zero five percent of this intelligence in the data And that is they'll be a major driver of business models Google Facebook Amazon Those are companies that are essentially like oil companies for data You've heard the saying before in 2006 Data is the big oil is the new oil And that's actually true now the data economy will be more than the fossil fuel the oil economy in seven years Roughly eight trillion dollars per year The Internet of Things That's the other big change Connecting cars traffic lights Transportation logistics our wristwatch is connecting everything with everyone Also a very scary proposal when you think about what that means potentially overlaps privacy issues and This is the most important issue for you Is data intelligence What can the system do that used to be done by people or by simple software by truly becoming intelligent? You know, there's research now from Oxford from last year already that says in the next 20 years We're going to have most things automated and digitized anything that can be automated will be For example advertising programmatic advertising manufacturing We can lose as many as 45 percent of all jobs Due to automation So if you do revenue assurance today or you're figuring out how to use software in the future This will be done with a digital brain so to speak Well, it's already done with a digital brain right, but in the future this brain will be actually intelligent You can get a preview of this if you go to your app on your mobile phone and bring up the app It's called Google now. It's pretty much an every mobile phone If you're a Google user You log in and Google now will tell you what's going to happen for the rest of the day You whether your stock your friends the places you should eat and so on it's basically predicting things So this is a very big trend for the near future So what's happening here? Most of you are operators and from the from a telecom business, of course Is that this is a gigantic opportunity for a leap, you know from this old place the water glass of mobile operators? to a new fishbowl and Also, that means entirely new revenue models based on social local mobile cloud video big data And if you look around, you know, many of the major international telecoms are Making that leap at the very moment trying to figure out how to become part of something that is going on on top of the networks and This is a very tough change because it's basically like a transformation from You know from a car to a robot like this short clip shells So it's actually quite a challenge to figure this out And and one of the things is that our entire business logic our models our ecosystem our intelligence It's sort of swept away by this wave of new things that are happening the Internet of Things for example Some companies like Cisco and others are saying it could be 50 times as large as the Internet of People and computers And of course all of these things use the network For example, if you and the entertainment business music films news Video and books are in the cloud now So what happens when you don't have the cloud You have nothing you can't do anything when the Google car drives And it does not have a connection of one gig per second to download data. It will stop driving In fact the Google car will not let you out of the car if it doesn't have a data connection Because nothing works anymore So dependency on the network will be absolutely fundamental and This brings up interesting opportunities I think what's happening here is that if we look at the old model of mobile operators and telecoms That's actually a very small pie compared to the future Have you said that of course? Here's the bad part. This is not just your pie There'll be many other people sitting in that pie including companies that build artificial intelligence like Google Google is planning to basically take over advertising with an algorithm, you know the advertising business is roughly one trillion dollar per year and If technology goes on as it is now very soon half of that will be automated Especially mobile advertising So the challenge really is we're living in an exponential world In an exponential world means that Conductivity and technology is taken off red. It's basically we're at this point here Roughly around here Interesting if you count linear numbers one two three four five, right? It's almost the same than one two four eight You know, it's not far apart But from eight to two sixteen is a big leap from four to five is not So an exponential world means that all the things that we've been looking at suddenly they happen Cheap batteries for self-driving cars by our engineering All of the things that are happening on the scale just absolutely explode and the bad part is of course their people Or the good part you could say in many ways People culture regulations and politics are like a snail compared to Exponential technology There's good things and bad things about this because people can't be exponential, you know people we don't think fast because we Twitter It's our brain is limited there But we're living in a world that's this is the rule number one you can and you can expect exponential change in the next five years And that also means exponential speed of change If you look what happened in a very short time for example Apple and Amazon 50% of their revenues come from things that didn't even exist five to six years ago the Kindle on the iPhone And that's gonna happen to you as well So by 2020 it's a good chance Maybe 2030 50% of your revenues come from new things. What will they be? Can you afford to sit back and say, oh, you know We continue as usual Because it still makes lots of money people are still buying connectivity making phone calls My views you can't Because if you don't add the new revenue streams somebody else will take them over and start eating into your core revenue streams It's a great book to read on this called to exponential organizations This just came out from a singularity university and they described the process of how you can become Exponential so I recommend that you read this because that is rule number one We have to think exponentially because now we have these convergences And if you have kids, you know what I'm talking about a fifth for a 15 year old kid The Internet and getting online is like electricity. It's like water. It's like going to the bathroom There's no doubt it exists. You know the other day I went to Zanzibar With my 18 year old son and this was the first time in his life that he didn't have internet So we're on the beach and he wants to go listen to music of course doesn't work, right? No internet So basically this conversions of all an offline is happening the conversions of human machines. I Mean Google Glass for example of my reality turns us into a cyborg basically, right? I don't know if you tried Google Glass, but I'm not wearing Google Glass now. Don't worry But if I was I could pull up information from Wikipedia while I speak and The doctor wearing Google Glass can see all the cancer records of every patient in the hospital in real time Turning us into superhumans I was a scary thought Because your next step, you know what the next step is right no glasses, but a contact lens That does the same thing and the next step after that is an implant and this is not science fiction The Internet of Things has potential to solve huge global problems like global warming Because if we connect everything for example heating systems Transportation logistics we can save up to 40 50% of energy Procter and Gamble and Unilever have calculated if they connected everything in their containers in the entire process They can save half the cost of shipping But they would have to collaborate to make that work Which is probably not gonna happen in entertainment. You know what's happening in entertainment We're going from a broadcast world to a broadband world I Mean I can give you 500 euros For a person in Germany a person under 30 that watches regular television I mean we watch television like this, you know, or we watch over the top, but kids They just go to the internet to watch television. This is the same thing YouTube is television at Hulu Netflix iPlayer in this world as a mobile operator This is fantastic for you, right because the less broadcasting the more broad banding I call the board the better And of course they are overlapping Broadcast is not going away lots of opportunities here. Okay, let's talk about one painful part You know, I'm originally from Germany. So I give you some pain occasionally The question about being digitally contestable That means can somebody invent some software or something else that will compete with what you're doing Give you one example the entertainment business DVDs as anybody any of you purchased a DVD sometime this year anybody Yeah, really, okay Last year I gave a DVD to my 25 year old son with a movie. He thought I should go see a therapist Because you know what you can watch movies anywhere anytime DVD is like it's like having a You know an old-fashioned old-timer rather than a real car Look what happens to those people your DVD used to cost $25 Now it's all streaming For $10 a month for a million movies. So the margin per unit has gone down 99% basically books Same thing here. You have HBO, which is cable in America and Netflix, which is over the top Beating HBO two weeks ago HBO announced they're gonna go and do streaming as well without cable So those are examples for digitally contestable businesses and you know these guys, right? Of course, you know these guys Everybody in the world is using WhatsApp basically, right? And you know what's happening there is that this is a bad big problem for SMS, of course Sooner or later for talking. I Think that should be about half a year video Broadcasting So the telecom business is clearly Digitally contestable. I mean, it's many things that I cannot be contested like you need a network for this to work Hard to contest that But what happens on the network is contestable We're moving into a future that is completely visual 80% of internet traffic by 2020 will be video and visual media It's interactive Immersive intelligent and most of it is mobile So it's a whole new thing happening for example this company down here. It's called magic leap is Inventing how we're going to watch TV by being 3d in virtual reality on a regular television And they are inventing a technology where you can see things like this superimposed over real-timey things Google just invested five hundred million dollars in the company So what happens here is that mobile devices are becoming like rocket ships for our brain I Mean we can do stuff with mobiles that we could never do with our brain like remember everything You know move stuff around like it's like an outside brain This is a clip called I beacon an application where you can go into a store and the store Recognizes who you are and gives you the things that you're looking for with the beacon guides you directly to the table where they are Very popular in fashion stores Apple stores, of course So this is essentially like becoming our external eyes and ears Because nothing could be better for a mobile company than this. I mean clearly this is addictive Google calls this screenification Everything is becoming a screen our movies our books our maps everything is a screen I mean if you go the other day three weeks ago was in Hong Kong and looked at the front of the car The guy I was driving with he had eight screens on the windshield Facebook maps all the other stuff, you know Mind-boggling screenification. That's happening all over the world and all of a sudden the digital native You know digital natives are hard to say between say 15 and 30 roughly The YouTube generation and they're actually getting much older now in five years 50 year old people will be digital natives basically Happening very quickly Everything is becoming liquid. They expect everything to be liquid liquid service liquid communications liquid media liquid money If you're not liquid they don't even want to hear about you Music is YouTube and books is e-books Reserving a restaurant is open table or trip advisor or whatever. It's completely liquid. The problem for you is that in this process They expect you to become liquid mobile operators lower prices better service and You know what where this leads to the need to create other services that you can give them Because there's a limit to how liquid you can be which means quality versus price So your risk goes up substantially wearable computing I'm not sure I would wear a smart watch, but it appears to be quite a hot trend to monitor yourself This is definitely a big trend that we're going to see in the next few years how interfaces are changing You know that we're just about to switch to computing with talking So already works just fine on the mobile phone But on the Apple for example, I dictate all of my emails now I use a grown the chrome browser from Google you can dictate right into it So when I search now, I don't type anymore. I just speak And in two or three years becomes a standard we don't type anymore We dictate emails we use Dragon whatever software for those kind of things we touch the screen Right, you know the scene from Minority Report where he goes in to fetch the data like this, right? That's going to be our reality So technology is going inside technology is becoming invisible Basically, if you use Siri on the iPhone and you asked Siri about the weather The weather information isn't saved in the box, right? It's in the cloud And that is becoming essentially the mode of operation for everything for predicting stuff predictive analysis sentiment reporting You know all these things are a sound like like a voodoo You're becoming real now in fact Google has said that they can predict The stock market of tomorrow the next day using Google information and They have chosen not to work on this project because it's it's a difficult question whether you should right But they have enough real-time information about stocks to predict. What's it going to look like tomorrow? Not hard to do Or they're hard to do but they have it the great book to read on this called the second machine age It's talking about how robotics are taken over and this is all very relevant for mobile because what's happening is that we're working on this overlap of machine and human which after all mobile devices are machines Now we're getting to the age of thinking machines right IBM Watson is a machine that actually has Artificial intelligence and what they're trying to get to is artificial general intelligence, which allows IBM Watson not to play chess But to answer important questions or to understand a joke. Oh That would be a strange thing the IBM Watson already won jeopardy Which is a complicated game right? It's not just Wikipedia So and that's going to be in all mobile devices I'm going to have access to this intelligence through the cloud. It's a cover of Economist magazine a few months ago And this is very relevant for your business because guess what these machines are going to do a lot of the jobs That you currently are doing or working on with some of your software It's a great opportunity also to build them of course Digital helpers assistants smart software agents For example, if you're a bank a Lot of you work with your clients about you know, basically not getting loans, but financial information Now we can go and use a software called narrative science and you can tell the software I want to invest in the pharma business. What do you recommend? 14 seconds later. You have a 200 page report Because the software has pulled all this stuff together all those information that a human never could and Yes, it's not creative obviously It's fact-driven a Narrative science the software company writes 20% of Forbes magazine is written by a robot I know you noticed, you know sounds robotic to me anyway sometimes, but That's already happening So you can expect intelligence software agent and data robots will dramatically change the way that mobile services are delivered And that's where all the startups are coming from And by the way, we're going to distribute the slides later as a PDF. So There's quite a few here. So That's kind of a general trend Again from the economy is a really interesting Variation of the same theme is that all of a sudden we can serve on this wave of really intelligent data Did you know that most companies they save data of course telcos and operators save lots of data But none of that is actually used in a meaningful way 0.05% in the average Companies like Google that's all they do Dive intelligence. I mean the numbers are staggering this guy says the combination of big data and smart machines will take over Some occupations wholesale and others it will allow firms to do more with fewer workers That is the future of software So rapid automation of business processes is certain And I I call this sometimes, you know hyper efficiency There's great potential here, and then there's of course challenge because it can be done by other players If you're looking for example, what's happening in the newspaper business This is a slide about the future of newspapers Basically what's happening here is that a lot of people have different reasons to buy different things as far as publishing and magazines is concerned for example Here on the left you have the economist which I subscribe to and the economist allows you to listen to the magazine That's so and this is real people voice not computer voice So the only reason I subscribe to the economist is because I can listen to it in the car That is the added value So as a telecom company you have to start thinking about how much added values can you supply to your customers? Some of it for free some of it not for free and that is sort of the mission of what we're trying to figure out for the future Because now you have this scenario in the next five to seven years All of the things that have been discussed for the last five years are suddenly here, right? Analytics Internet of Things Robotics 3d printing smart homes genomics connected health care I mean you have to be a professor to understand all of this stuff, right? It's mind-boggling I mean you could spend all of your time just looking at these trends. You wouldn't get any work done So this has huge impact on all of this and of course and OSS as well The future really is this right you used to be here communications and ICT And all the other guys were some welds the other industries now. They're all converging Learning education entertainment content transactions commerce money health It's all converging together. I know this puts the fear of God into many operators Because you know when you did this by yourself. It was a pretty straightforward business model The future is not going to be a straightforward Because in a converged future you're not in charge These are ecosystems So basically what that means is amazing opportunities and the challenges on the one side I call this telecom 1.0 the business that's just kind of ending and Over here on the other side telecom media Things money work and health right it's going like this And I can promise you 99% of all mobile companies in the world. You stay on the left stream. You're dead It's my view Because all the action will move over here on the new revenue streams over here There's still plenty of revenue streams over here Clearly and you can make that choice and maybe you don't have a chance You know you don't have a choice in in some highly regulated countries will be difficult to not do that But most of the action is moving over here So let's do a poll you can take out your device. This is the time to show that you are a geek Okay Take them out. It's okay. Take out your weapons As I said, this is not optional if you don't do this then Basically you don't get lunch Okay, this is real time. Okay The question is really simple Do you believe that mobile operators really need to move into adjacent business areas such as content money health or risk decline in relevance simple question All you have to do is go to the website poll ev.com future with Gert Okay, if you don't want to go to a website you can send them SMS If you have a dumb phone, you know, any of you have a dumb phone, right? You know like an old-fashioned who are they again Nokia, right? You can text the code to this phone number Using one of these short codes. Okay, or if you're hip and your Twitter Just send a tweet to add poll with the code of the answer But by far the easiest is to use the website poll ev.com slash futurist Gert It's active, right? You can see it Hello, yes, I Realize this is very early, but Huh? Don't log in just go to poll ev.com slash futurist Gert There's a login option just ignore it See it seems to work. We do have responses here Now if you don't respond your wishes will be ignored clearly Okay, there we go That's good. You're finally getting it right here. You can be ready for the future Okay Everybody know how this works. Yeah Okay Again the simplest way if you don't want to go on the web send an SMS to this number Okay, and use one of the short codes here a little bit hard to see the short code now for some reason Okay, you guys are still voting. Yeah That's good This is anonymous. Of course, you know, I'm gonna save your phone number and send it to your boss What what you voted on I'm just kidding Anyway, so we'll keep it here. We have an interesting response That's good. I think you guys are with me for the most part You think absolutely that You need to move on to adjacent business areas and there's quite a few people saying yes Well, I figured you would say this but It's interesting, but it seems uncertain. Well, that that is definitely the case But an interesting mix, you know, we seem to have quite a few optimists here, which is good Let me go back to the presentation. You can keep voting. It's gonna keep running until I switch the next one on all right, so Here are some challenge opportunities from operators and for OSS and VSS providers The biggest challenge, of course, is this right user control. I Mean it's mind-boggling how much control users want what they want to see how much empowerment they want This is great for us as consumers, but it's a pain for providers I mean the stuff that people are expecting from anything If you look at for example the music business now It's all over the top streaming like Simfy or Spotify. People are expecting 18 million songs for $10 a month And they expecting that to go across all platforms Then you have speed, you know the warp drive You don't have time to respond. I mean, it's all real time like all customer service now for major airlines is done on Twitter You have a problem with Turkish Airlines you tweet You get an instant response. It's real time and this security Data security cloud computing When our entire life moves into the cloud If we don't have security, we don't have management of data We don't have standards we're screwed right because that is the worst-case scenario Your health records your banking your information you're shopping your car travel everything in the cloud, but it's not secure Like we heard last year the summer of Snowden and NSA That's that's a bad thing. I mean there are an estimated $28 billion lost in the US economy because of NSA Snowden affair and the insecurity over cloud computing In Switzerland where I live 45 companies have been started to Offer Swiss cloud computing under Swiss law As a result of this whole discussion So security is crucial and here's a great quote from Peter Drucker management guru Where some of the greatest book in this business he wrote the greatest danger in terms of turbulence is not the turbulence and change Itself, but to act with yesterday's logic and I tell you because I've been doing this now for 10 years Mobile operators and telecoms love to act with yesterday's logic Because it's safe But I'm here to tell you that if you act safe you don't take a risk. It's actually very unsafe It was safe until now But now we have things happening that require us to think and take more risk My friend Simon Torvans from telco 2.0 has calculated the brutal decline in core revenue European telecoms and I'm sure this is not news to you in developing countries. It looks better But mobile operators are heading towards a total business model reboot. I Know you heard this before but it's finally true because the convergence of technology has brought this to us the tough mission if you're in this business Redefining ROI So forget about return on investment for a second. It's return on involvement How involved are your customers your partners? The other companies and the business around you on the ecosystem and this is of course the Google mantra right and the Facebook mantra That's how they build their business They invest to get people involved Don't tell your CFO You'll not be happy with that But just like this little clip which is taken from Tiffany slain's movie It's all about interdependence now in the future You'll be working with publishers with content companies with health companies with startups with technology providers As a default and of course, you know this that industry definitions and borders are dissolving And see what just recently happened Google Waller dry Google has a banking license Facebook has a banking license Amazon wants to send drones to deliver books and services Facebook is getting into money. Apple is becoming a bank industry barriers are dissolving You stay in your own industry. That's all you do then everybody will dissolve around you and Gonna leave you behind So great book by my friend Rita McGrath at Columbia, it's called the end of competitive advantage You have to read this book because that's where you are you are at the end of this big competitive advantage And that's good news. It's not bad news This is a great book because she says basically we don't have to think about industry any longer We think about the arena, you know, what is around us? What is the arena of Google? Well operating system health money software Artificial intelligence search advertising cars house thermostats, right? It's like everything we very soon will live in the Google OS so Your most serious competition for what you do whether you do software or actually mobile operations will come from outsiders The biggest competitor to hotels is this company called air bean be where you can rent places from each other try it out I've tried it out five times, you know, two of them were a total disaster and two of them were good on the other one I don't mention Twitter is competing with CNN, right Twitter is now Twitter news network TNN And if if CNN wasn't using Twitter, it would be irrelevant Basically, I mean People keep telling me the best thing about CNN is is Twitter that they use on the show So this is what's happening everywhere in education and transportation And you can expect increase in disruption coming through the back door not to the front door Air bean be didn't go to the hotels and said can we make you superfluous? Can we kill your business that came to the back door by going through a 60% unused property in each city Would people just not using? Mind-boggling it's all about fancy places and different kinds of places and trust Trusting strangers so not no surprise to you startups are looking at the telecom sector and when I say startups, I don't mean three or four. I'm talking about thousands thousands Of course, you know that yourself because now the cost of doing a startup is going towards zero When I did my internet startups it cost us two million dollars to build a website Now I can use a bunch of WordPress plugins to do the same thing Great saying from this guy David Rosa says any company designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to fail in the 21st I don't agree on that dramatic position, right, but it Advattals the brain when you think about who you have to be in the 21st century here is some of the startups, right? You go to this website called angel.co where you can see how many companies got funded, right? The number yesterday was 6,177 companies in the area of mobile software and all of the terms that we're in here 6,177 funded So it's crucial to look at this, you know, sometimes the assets of the past become the death wish of tomorrow Of course a mobile network is not a dead asset, right? But it leads you into a certain direction of thinking That's still going to be ultimately very important But look at this what's happening for example in book publishing the French company Hachette with a nice a nice office building and now This is no longer needed because books are becoming e-books. You don't print anymore And their business model is radically changing So the switch from the long-term competitive advantages a great network great technology great infrastructure great software Yes, but what is the future is what's been referred to as a transient advantage? That's an advantage to use as long as it goes you get ready for the next one Do you run the next one? Compare Barnes and Noble bookstore With what Amazon is doing right Amazon? Robot shipping right using robots to ship stuff drones for delivery and of course mobile devices Around the world Okay, so let's do another poll because you did so good on the last one. I have to switch this on though first You can take a look at this the question is really quite simple and you can vote twice now Well, I'm powering isn't it? So you can tell me what is the most powerful new opportunities for mobile operators in the That you're in let me switch. I have to switch is on first before you can actually do this Just one second. I think we're still in the old one here. I do hope that the internet is working. Yes Yes, we are successful. This is still pretty much the worldwide wait, right? Okay, okay, it should be live now. Are you getting something? Okay, let me see if I can actually show the question again here We may have to pay extra to get the whole page to load Well, you can start voting if it's working Obviously you better connect than I am So we can actually see the results Okay, the question is really simple Which one of those opportunities are the most powerful and then there's a list of options here. We are With a late than ever Okay, so you can say it's content. It's money. It's health. It's big data and Let's just stick with what we do now. Who are the three people who voted for this? Let me get my gun out here, but okay very interesting so we got a pretty good Spread here if you want to comment why you voted. Let's stick with what we have please Feel free Okay, good good you voted on this Okay Okay, that's a good point. I mean I have an answer on this is the you know There's lots of companies in print and media who's saying that if you put a paywall You can make money charging people visiting the website, right? Did you know that the only paywall that is actually working? Is the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times also? That's it New York types disaster So you can say I mean the argument would be the same you can do it But very rarely it would work out. It's my point of view. It's just like the paywall You can do a paywall, but to say that the paywall is is a solution to a publisher Would probably bark up the wrong tree. I mean we have an interesting scenario here. So Very good to see this content money big data, and I have to say I agree with you. I Think I think e-health and medical is also very interesting, but it's very early for this I mean business intelligence business services big data Clearly And I forgot to actually put in the Internet of Things, you know Which I would bundle in general in that direction and content and media very good We should discuss what exactly this means, but I don't know how much time I have left you have time left Is anybody watching the time this? Okay, and we'll go back to him All right, so the military has a term that fits our situation, right? It's referred to as VUCA volatility uncertainty complexity and ambiguity and That is the reality of providing communication services these days As I'm sure you can agree Then this is true So what is the response to this and I think what we need to do is we need to think about how we can actually What I call flip the VUCA, you know create a Different kind of VUCA and there will be velocity which is speed right to be fast unorthodoxy Cook up in your days reliance entertainment two years ago in India They actually said you can use us to do Facebook and to do what's app you need us Right, they came in from the other end. They offered a special deal to actually go and use what's up in Facebook Rather than charge extra for this collaboration and good American word awesomeness All right, that's That's America. Yeah, it's hard to translate what that is that but awesomeness for example is something like Amazon Launches a movie service called Amazon Unlimited right and what they do when they launch it They don't come out and say now we can run movies on Amazon You know what they say? They say all of the premium customers 75 million get 50,000 movies for free That's awesome Because you know what they have already licensed the movies doesn't cost them any extra, but they're not trying to sell me something They're giving me a present Dropbox you guys use dropbox. Yeah Gives you a present for each person that you connect to dropbox and the other day because I talk a lot about dropbox Right. They said good. We like you. Here's 10 times as much storage for free It's a present That's awesome. It's easier to do for them than for many others clearly but and The Internet of Things is one of those awesome things and I think what's happening here that we can say The Internet of Things could be heaven or it could be hell depending how you look at it And and this is the challenge for example with big data is the same thing it can be fantastic to be this intelligent But to know everything and to be able to use that everywhere can be rather scary I can have huge privacy issues and So it's a bit of a hell then scenario imagine a world where all the cars are connected The benefit of that is clear, but would you want the police to know if he were you drove for the last seven years? That could be hell could be heaven for other reasons, but hell for others all of the home connect I mean, this is where we're going at regardless of what we want. This is going to happen Because technology makes it possible, you know, I'm one of those sensors now costing something like zero point four cent They used to be five hundred dollars So I mean clearly this is the future. We're going into we're going into this opportunity of convergence of cyberspace, you know online and Meat space, which is you know us called meat space For example, this this thing called Uber you guys know Uber taxi company. I use all the time You can call a taxi through an app It's a private driver essentially you can buy in many cities you can buy their services This only works because of mobile technology And now there's the first mobile companies who are using this for example Verizon, right? Verizon just launched a car sharing service and I think it's called Auto auto car, what is it called again? Auto share. Yeah, a little bit confusing name You know what Verizon did? They're not a car company. They said you can rent out your own car By using the Verizon app you put a sticker on your car with a QR code Somebody walks up and wants to rent your car if they're signed up They can unlock the car with the app and pay you and drive away with your car a Car sharing thing that was rolled out in a couple weeks. I mean pretty amazing scenario for a mobile operator to get into the car sharing business Did it take a lot of technology? Not really Okay And I then we have this whole trend on what's happening with artificial intelligence I mentioned before you have to watch this trend Because that is the future of software That's a scary thought that all of the internet companies are investing Every single company in artificial intelligence has been purchased by Facebook Google IBM Microsoft or others To take care of the heavy lifting that used to require thousands of people for example in the future a call center customer service machines Can a machine respond when I'm saying you know, I'm pissed off about my flight delay can machines can do that pretty well now actually they're not human but You know, they have they work tiredly forever. You don't have to pay them So this is clearly going to happen in this regard and now data is essentially becoming the main driver of this It's mind-boggling to see this app called Google now if you look at this you see in the future of customer service Big data has been described many times, but you know, this is why I'm happy you voted like you did I mean the map of big data McKinsey is saying we're looking at roughly 7.5 trillion dollars a year in revenue streams from big data by 2020 bigger than the oil business So it's very very powerful stuff everyone and everything is becoming a source of data Now there is a scary thought, but it's also powerful thought Could be heaven could be hell this cartoon says 1993 on the internet nobody knows your dog 1993 and 2013 on the internet everybody knows your dog There's the difference the internet has gotten a lot smarter and Cognizant has an interesting video. They call this idea the code halo every person has like an information halo around them And they're actually quite serious about this. They have a book called the code halo that you should read this It's funny and serious at the same time, but every person has this this concept of being surrounded by data, right? Clearly very powerful concept But also some very potential unintended consequences that could come out of this super intelligence seeing all the way through I Think this is an illusion now. We're never going to see all the way through but we're going to see better So I usually what happens when you run a business you can see this far, right and That's it and that's not good Because all the friction that you have not making decisions and so I'd be happy to look you know up to here in the future I think that is more realistic And as I said before Part of this problem that you have to avoid at all costs is to abuse people's data Yes, we scan Not a good idea Because in the end you're in this business right in the technology business, but the flip side of technology is trust You break the trust with their customers and yet then you're finished. So this is a very important thing to remember You have to avoid this kind of big data disaster For example data going out where it's not supposed to go or the wrong API connecting to the wrong people and things like that, right? You want to avoid this at all costs you want to avoid big data should not be big brother, right? Nobody wants that Not a good business model to make big data big brother people will not Comply with this that's a cyber crime, of course There's people saying that 50% of all military spending in the next five years Will be cyber crime and cloud computing 50% military spending No more soldiers all in the cloud Soldiers in the cloud so to speak And of course cloud security becomes mission critical we've discussed this earlier You can see already what happened with the NSA revelations how much money was lost as a as a consequence So this is really quite serious. Let me do a quick summary and then I'm off the stage Point one technology is changing our world exponentially You don't have time to wait Exponential means that while we're waiting the world has doubled in output And Moore's law is 18 months now the fact is every 12 months We're getting major innovations in technology and culturally they are changing the way that we do business It is very likely that by 2020 sometimes half of your business comes from new revenue streams. What are they? You have to figure out what they are Mobile services pie is likely to be much larger I call this telemedia if you want to know more about my console telemedia Just go to YouTube and put in telemedia lots of videos on this Industries are convergent Whether we like this or not, right? I mean if you're in the publishing business You don't like Google to be in the publishing business. You don't like Amazon to be in the book business, but that is what's happening So mobile platforms mobile operators become platforms Platforms for other business concepts Digitally contestable businesses we need to try and flip the Volcker to Be quick to be unorthodox to collaborate and to be awesome We need liquid and digital native business models Things that only work because people are connected Lots of examples all the top 20 companies now Airbnb is worth twice as much as the Hyatt Hotel chain I mean a company that's two years old renting other people's rooms is worth more than the Hyatt Hotel chain by two times So this is moving very quickly automation artificial intelligence are certain I mean if you're in the software business, this is where everything is going So get ready for some serious competition there Very important all the startups are listed earlier. You have to engage with those startups You can import innovation you can import transformation. That's all they want to do is connect to large players Security standards and digital trust become mission critical I mean if you're in the risk business, you're actually moving center stage now But this is going to be much larger than just figuring out the business risk It's going to be much larger about security standards So to sum up the best way to predict the future is to create it That's what Peter Drucker said. So that's what I wish for you. Thanks very much for listening I look forward to your questions. Thank you