 I'm lucky enough to be the chair of the ACT International Humanitarian Law Committee and I'm very grateful to have the chance to introduce our speakers today. I'm going for a very short period, which is hard when you see my name because I can't say my name in less than five minutes but I'm sure you'll forgive me. I'd like to welcome you all here and certainly to Professor Maley for hosting us at the Henry Bull Centre and the College of Diplomacy. I think we are truly lucky tonight to have the panel of speakers who will address certainly issues that are very pertinent to international humanitarian law and I would say international relations more generally. We're looking at a rapidly evolving world and certainly a global perspective, such things as the Arab Spring and the transition in Afghanistan are matters of grave concern to Australia and Australians. And with Mr Eve D'Court who's come all the way from Geneva we certainly will get a chance to have a global perspective from the headquarters of the National Committee of the Red Cross. I was lucky enough to have some association with the ICRC in a number of different ways but remember, very vividly one night from the President, Samaruga, there's a big map with flags of where the ICRC missions are all around the world and he very reluctantly had to pull out a flag I think it might have been Somalia at the time because the security situation just didn't allow it. But when you see that spread of what the ICRC is doing all around the world it's extremely impressive and of course he travels greatly in his role as the Director-General of the International Committee of the Red Cross and gives us the benefit of his hindsight into what's currently happening but really what may be occurring next year and that certainly is very topical. Mr D'Court was born in Geneva in Switzerland, he's a Swiss citizen and lives in Geneva, a former journalist with an arts degree in political science he has been with the ICRC since 1992 and as usual he has an impressive range of field operations working in Israel, Sudan, Yemen, the Caucasus and Georgia he has held a number of very senior positions in the ICRC before becoming the Director-General in effect the Chief Executive Officer and most senior operational person in the organisation and he's been in that position since 2010. Now as I mentioned one of the important things the ICRC does is communicate really what's going on and dissemination is a key aspect of the work and part of the mandate and one of the ways that the messages are transmitted are through the ICRC review and the Red Cross review are the International review and we're lucky enough to have an editor from that review and the latest edition of the review focuses on Afghanistan now Dr Helen Durham from the Australian Red Cross where she's the head of international law and principles and also a senior fellow at Melbourne Uni will talk about the review and the edition and also I'm happy to say that Australian is going to be on the editorial board and she'll be taking on that position very shortly, immediately she's been a legal advisor for the ICRC and national manager of IHL for the Australian Red Cross Helen has a doctorate in the area of international humanitarian law he's a barrister and solicitor in Victoria and has got an extremely impressive regime in terms of being involved in both field operations and international negotiations around the world and she's also very well published in the field of international humanitarian law and finally because the reviews are current edition and there are copies up the back for people to take away and there's other material up the back which you're free to take focuses on Afghanistan we have one of the most eminent persons in the world to speak on some of the developments in Afghanistan and that's our host here, Professor William Maley William, well Bill rather if I can be so bold has been the foundation director of the age specific college of diplomacy since July 2003 and he has taught for many years in many distinguished positions both here in Canberra and also I find interesting enough at the Russian Diplomatic Academy he has a very important position in educating our future diplomats and is also a barrister of the High Court and a member of the Executive Committee of the Refugee Council of Australia he has a very long and impressive publication portfolio and in this regard one of the seminal articles in the edition of the review which is just being released is on Afghanistan written by Professor Maley and he'll speak on that and as I said I've exceeded my mandate by far too long we'll have to review him, can I ask him to address the audience? Thanks very much Rick, good evening to all of you can I just start with maybe two personal comments the first one is about listening to Eurik talking about where I was born I realised it would have been good to be born in Obart born in Zurich Switzerland is not that good I just, my first experience in Australia right now and I really enjoy to start with Obart there was the national conference of the Australian Red Cross there and I was very happy to start with Tasmania it's a good start now and then to arrive in Canberra so I'm very pleased to be with you and my second personal comment is about the review and that don't quote me but it's a personal experience I've read the review for a long time and sometimes I loved it but sometimes I found it very boring too I'm really a reader, a serious reader about it this review, this edition is certainly one of the best I've seen over time and I'm serious about that and I think it also show and Ellen will talk about that it shows exactly what his review is trying to achieve which is to put on the table at the key moment I do think different perspective about Afghanistan because you can have different perspective about Afghanistan in order to really forge informed opinion I do think that Afghanistan will continue to be really central including after 2014 will be central to all of us not only in terms of human needs and come back to that but also in terms of policies, in terms of commitment, long term and I think it's absolutely strategic to have a well informed understanding of what's happening there and in that sense I do think I'm very happy to be part of this panel because it's an important moment to be launched at and I hope you will have the chance to explore and also to discuss some of the questions I've been asked briefly to and that's what I would like to do with you is Afghanistan is an important feature but maybe before digging in and exploring Afghanistan maybe just to look at two or three other trends which would affect armed conflict in 2012 I'll be rather short and then select some of them and I'll come back to Afghanistan then let Professor Mele to really explore it with much more saviness and wisdom than I can do the first element you need to know about ICSE I think you know that we are extremely armed conflict oriented so we are 82 countries and we are really connected there and normally we are in places for decades we stay there for decades Afghanistan is more than now 35 years of commitment of the ICSE it's the same in Palestine, same in Sudan, same in Yemen so our perspective and it's only one perspective you can have different are really based on first and foremost the needs of the people the human needs of the people and we're trying to understand the evolution of their needs because it tells us a lot about what we understand what we can say about the world of tomorrow and let's be honest sometimes we get it wrong I would have been with you a year ago I wouldn't have spoken about Libya for example I certainly spoke about Syria, about Palestine maybe not the same dynamic but for example Libya was something we didn't understand a year ago so just also to be humble we don't only get it but I think there is an interesting dynamic and that's what I would like to share with you based on your mental needs and maybe the first things I would like to mention before going on to two or three very important regions region or country two or three dynamic which will affect all the conflict around the world the first one is not a surprise for you is the economic crisis I really would like all of you not to underestimate let's say the impact of the economic crisis we're all aware we look at the stock market we are looking at unemployment and rightly so we are looking more than ever at Brussels I think we will still have some surprise every week there is a new summit there is something new happening and it will continue to do so but what is amazing also is to look maybe behind some of the questions and one element which has really strike us is the price of the food basic food, cereal for example since 2007 the price of the cereal have more than double and what is interesting in double in fact in 2007-2008 that was the moment where it doubles but normally what happens is then it goes down after a while and what is interesting is that the norm is that it has maintained a very very high level the peak was first quarter of 2011 and since then it has go down a little bit but still very very high and what is interesting when you start now of course to try to learn what happened in Egypt and Tunisia to start with is A, there is different factors we know that there is factors about young population, educated no options, no solutions at the same times easy access to internet and new technologies corruption of the regime I mean plenty of things but one of the factors we should not underestimate absolutely is the price of the food in the market absolutely clear, has an enormous impact it's not the only reason but it's absolutely a key reason which can explain social unrest, civil unrest and if we agree with that we can already know that in 2012 there will be a lot of pressure on the people basically with the price of food very high very very high, very high and it doesn't go down and that's clearly one element which will impact enormously that's one let me just go now to another trend and again sorry it's never renewed but what is interesting is the dynamic and the speed which it happens new technologies of course are proposing new solutions and we see that including in the young modern world it's also changing the way we operate for example we see in our domain an extremely rapidly changing dynamic around needs assessment for example the way we were assessing needs a few years ago we took time to do that I can tell you things are changing quickly for two reasons, one because people are affecting assessing their needs themselves they are able to communicate that much more easily on maps maps are much more important now in terms of decision making for the one who are following up for the Ushai and other places so it's interesting to look at truly new technology influencing decision making in the young modern sectors but I would like also to say one big trend we've seen now over years which will be just reinforced in 2012 talking about internationally maintained law also is the fact that new technologies are also affecting the way war and armed conflict are fought more and more and what you will see is remote control weapons much more, it was already the case but you will see just more of them especially the drone, we know big success, next year plus 30% of drone the spending is suddenly one of the weapon going on, it's 8 billion a year of dollar on the drone and we see that in Yemen in Afghanistan of course but Yemen, Pakistan, Sahel and of course what I mean by remote control it gives you a bit of an impression of what it is, it's really remote control and of course it has impact on the people in the way war unfold and I can just add on in 2012 trends we've seen also coming up it's all the cyber dimension, right cyber war or cyber attack we can talk about that, some people think it's a bit science fiction there's a tendency now these days to talk about cyber security I just would like to talk about cyber war also, of course there are cyber war there are states which are preparing themselves we've seen that, we've seen for example the United States of America the way they organize their army you know that there are five commands which are really the central command south command, north command which is called cyber command it's not by surprise United States of America again recently they just told the world in a way that they would consider a cyber attack at a certain level as an act of war and then there will be the response needed so we are in a moment that is not a surprise where we will see more of that and clearly the crisis with Iran for example has already shown that, we've shown that again in 2012 and I think for us and for the people affected and for the needs of course it's an issue because it's an issue about proportionality, it's an issue about distinction, how do you distinguish military target which is legitimate versus civilian target so typically in 2012 we will see more of this type of questions more of this type of challenge for the people but also for the United Organization so just to look at two issues which we'll see that, let me just add a third one global issue which is not a new one but it's an issue that we at the ICSC, we at the Red Cross we want to put on the table is the fact that we think that medical mission, hospital medical personnel, patients are less and less respected around the world and this is not something really new but what is maybe new is the fact that we see clearly government but also armed groups using medical facilities ambulances, hospital as let's say targeting them in order to really put people on the pressure and that's a major issue I think for all of us because we do believe that if health care cannot be provided including in a toughest time in war and armed conflict that would be something problematic and we see that across the world, look at Middle East if you look at all the issues around Middle East you will see a lot of hospital pressure on medical, on doctors but you see that also at the time in Asia, in Africa and I think it's a big big issue, we brought that at the international conference of the Red Cross last week which brings together states and all the national Red Cross and Red Crosses and this is a real issue where we want to push this is an important one, I strongly believe that if we are not able we and we it's not only the Red Cross not only the ICSC, not only the states but also we here in this room are able to push these issues to make hospital being respected doctors, nurses, ambulances being respected, we will go into various problems, this is really the basic, the basic element of humanity we need to be very careful, so three trends, now let me just focus on two region in order not to be too long, the first one you mentioned Rick is the famous Arab Spring, can I just say I said that only some of you are not at ease with the notion of Arab Spring for two reason, one because of spring, we are sure winter, when the winter comes you know, summer for winter, I'm not sure exactly where we are in Egypt right now or where we are in Syria, but that's another story but I think the notion of Arabs is maybe the more problematic, I think it gives us this impression that the Arab Spring will remain contained, if you want only in Middle East in the Arab world I think this is misleading it's true in 2011, 2012 possibly still the key places will be in the Arab world it's very true, but we have to think a bit largely, maybe also because we didn't really see it coming up, but clearly if you look at around the Middle East I think there is very clear sub-Saharan country which will be affected, which are already affected and not only by uniquely access to internet and food prices, but also the availability of weapons if you just look at Libya as an example Libya will have as an impact on the region there is no doubt, you can see there are more weapons now arriving in Mali for example, more weapons now arriving in Darfur and it will have an impact there is no doubt on that one, just mentioning that we need to look at also some of the factors and clearly Central Asia as an example would be a place where I would also carefully look at, doesn't mean it will happen but I think we need to think about this dynamic as something more global and more general and I would say think that we can maybe not only look at Middle East and difficult region, maybe we also need to look at Europe, I'm not sure Europe will have the same type of violence but I think we need to grasp what happened in London, what happened in Athens what happened when an entire population feel totally disconnected and there is no solutions proposed, I think it might be problematic and we might find our situation a bit more complex that we think over time. Now I would like, so when we talk about the Arab Spring I think the first element, let things a bit more openly, that just in Middle East now, nevertheless in 2012 the place to watch of course is Syria, very clearly is I think we can also watch a ship in Tunisia but in terms of humanitarian needs in terms of dynamic, I think Syria is going through, we all agree with that through a very difficult time it's a very difficult time for Syria and also I think here the question for us, the international committee of the Red Cross, we are working in Syria we are trying to do our best but our response is limited because of the situation and because it's complicated right now to be able to work where we would like to work but I think what we see is we see some part of the country clearly in a situation where we might not exclude anymore we might not exclude anymore a civil war in some part of the country. I will be careful not to talk about the entire Syria but there are some part of the country which are under enormous pressure and I think we might not exclude that and here when we talk about civil war the issue is the how we don't have a prediction about when does it have, I think nobody knows, frankly nobody knows how and what's the dynamic in 2012, it might be long it might be very difficult for people in Syria but I think what is important is the how and the how might have an impact then clearly interreligious, interethnic problems and here immediately will have an impact and speed over on Lebanon for example, to Lebanon clearly when you have also a very very complex dynamic and of course if Syria goes in that direction it might be very difficult for Lebanon so 2012 very clearly Syria will be at the centers of our preoccupation, you can add Yemen as a very difficult country also, difficult for the people Yemen is a very complicated country now it's almost divided in three the gnomes, the centers and the south they have different dynamic and also enormous humanitarian problems, we just have recently yesterday very heavy fighting in Taiz for example, very difficult for us and for our colleagues of the Yemeni Red Crescent to do just basic work, checkpoint bringing wounded where they need to go and on the south we recently had two people taken hostage three weeks ago we were able to take them out but it shows the difficulties and just about ICSE but if you just talk about the people I think we know how difficult it is maybe my last word on Arab Spring is we should be careful to understand the trends but then the response and the understanding should be context by context because you cannot compare Egypt with Tunisia, you should really not compare Tunisia with Yemen and not Yemen with Libya for example and I think we need to be very careful to look into that and I think that's one element to look into that briefly, second region which we think are of enormous importance and I mentioned that, I could mention other places but one places which we are extremely worried is Somalia in terms of again if we base that on United needs, we are worried why because Somalia is again under pressure, I mean it's not new Somalia over the last almost 20 years without exception has been a concern for all of us, by the way the question I'm asking myself is how are they able to cope, because every year we are saying my team are saying it's the worst year ever and then it goes down and down, there's a moment we're just wondering we think their coping mechanism is really at the limit of what is possible but okay, but I think what is important for us is we have a drought there, we have a non-conflict for quite a long time, we have a very difficult situation but I would like just to add for your attention so when you think about 2012 what is new is we have the intervention of a country Kenya, another one Ethiopia by the way, but especially Kenya, who comes in with my concern is comes in with a very strong conviction is when you discuss with Kenyan leadership, but not only with Kenyan leadership, with a strong conviction that they will win it, no problem police operation will go in few months it will be done I mean, sorry we have a very I mean we've been there for a long time and every time we've seen an intervention of a state, it has been extremely difficult for the Somali people of course, but also very difficult for the country and for the citizens of the country, political dimension so imagine Kenya is now fully engaged in Somalia will be found difficult then to withdraw they go on for that and it's a very same times, a year where Kenya is going through elections and for the one who remember what happened in the elections 2007-2008 in Kenya so you will have a country which is a very pivotal country, if you look at Africa Kenya is a very important country for different reasons, you might have a country which will be under a difficult situation, so I want to watch very carefully and maybe let me just finish in terms of key region if we talk about 2012 we looked at Arab Spring we look at Somalia and Kenya, the third element is of course Afghanistan and not only Afghanistan because it's in the review but even without the review I would spoke about Afghanistan and I'm again sad to present Afghanistan because you could say, do you have anything new no, for an organization like us working in non-conflict Afghanistan remain a very very important operation for us but for one good reason is because we think in 2012 the situation will not only not improve but will deteriorate and I think there are certain numbers of reason the first reason is right now already you have a lot of insecurity in the country there is more war let's say more fighting in the country than there was a few years ago and I think the big issue is about today, it's about the transition and what I would call the end over I think there is absolutely no discussion in terms of policy that is normal to have an end over and transition but if I just look at the different perspective of the United perspective the issue is the following when you announce a transition and an end over after 10 years of war of course you have let's say a moment where all the actors are trying to find themselves a new position in the conflict it's exactly what we're going through right now in Afghanistan of course everybody knows that the international community is living for us as internet forces but the impression of Afghanistan the international community is living that the commitment won't be there and what is happening you have a lot of forces right now in Afghanistan repositioning themselves to be able to if not control the power at least to play a big role and I think we should be very careful not to have very classical visions now it's simple the Taliban we're out now the Taliban are back first the Taliban and I think we'll discuss it's a much more complex organization not just one little things like that we know a lot of blurring of the line in Afghanistan between armed opposition some of the armed opposition and criminal so I think there will be an enormous impact on people it's already the case but we expect 2012 to be a very difficult years and it will be difficult also because in this country in Australia like a lot of other country you will always constantly hear different reading about Afghanistan you'll hear the reading about transition over which is a positive one it's great we've finished our mission it's complicated whatever and on the same times the reading of humanitarian or afghan being caught in this situation which truly is more difficult for the people right very clearly our assessment is very clear we base that on access to medical facilities for example it's more difficult today for an ordinary woman to bring a child for example or a family to find a place it's much more difficult today than it was two years ago and it will be more difficult a year ago no problem it's true there are some places in society where the quality of life is better but it's only little places overall the situation is and will remain extremely difficult in that time another example the tension is something we are of course careful one thing we do ICSEs to follow specifically some really groups of high vulnerability one are the we always forget that prisoners are especially in that type of situation extremely vulnerable we have 18,000 prisoners now in Afghanistan I mean the big issue in transition time we have big issue I mean you have still several thousand of them in the hands of international forces they will be transferred some of them already transferred under the hands of the Afghan authorities and here without saying wrong or right the question is do they have the meaning to really do their job as they should it's not easy in terms of facilities but in terms of treatment do they have the mean to redo justice I mean we need to make sure that the judicial guarantee the transfer the justice is done just to mention that's the kind of questions and here the issue for us is and maybe that's the last one is about commitment and maybe that's the great questions is we make sure because I think that's what we hear if you discuss with Afghan today whatever they are I think their concern is clearly that in 2014 even before but in 2014 latest I mean the entire international community will withdraw tyrant by Afghanistan by the war don't want to hear anymore really sorry we got it that thick thank you and then it's not only about the military but also about commitment the possibility to support these people and I think there is a real real real worry about the ability to move forward and to commit ourselves and I think that's something very important it will be important for our organization there is a very strong commitment it is the first and the biggest operation for the ICSE but ICSE we have to be very humble we are small to respond to all the problems of Afghanistan I mean the Afghan need to find solutions themselves but they are not we think to be able to do so and I think they will be confronted with a hell of a problem in front of us thank you very much thank you for certainly it is bound to be a fascinating insight into the world ahead they are rather sober and certainly humanitarian challenges the work of the ICSE you're not going to take too many flakes unfortunately for the right reasons but as I said one important thing that the ICSE does is communicate and disseminate and the national review of the Red Cross is probably equal for this well thank you I'll only be a short rose between two thorns as they say but because we do want to hear from the incredible knowledge and erudite nature of Bill Maley but I did want to spend literally a couple of minutes talking about the international review before I started I like a bit of poetry myself and I was reading the other day T.S. Eliot who is a wonderful erudite poet and he wrote a question, posed a question to us which is what is the knowledge we have lost in information and what is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge and I think in a time of masses of information through Twitter which I don't quite understand but it's apparently the next big thing through sound bites we have a fork, email, wikipedia we are flooded with information daily but what I think we need is a little bit of time to reflect and develop and create perhaps pockets of wisdom and what I would hope and one of the reasons why I'm very excited about being involved in the international review is I think it is a place where let's not be too hubris it's not going to be all pearls of wisdom but where it can have a chance to engage in the topics in a way that is moving towards that great quest of some wisdom the articles are longer I actually love the fact that's been around, I think it was created in 1869 and I must admit I'm a bit of a great reader of the review and if ever I'm having a day that I'm wondering that it's all overwhelming and the world's too much pick up an edition and we've got many of them near my office and it's so comforting to see that with many ways of changing, things are rapid but many of the fundamental intrinsic human questions we're asking today have been asked for many many years and you pick up an article and you'll read it and often I do a thing where I don't try not to see what the date is and whilst there's different technologies and there's different issues no doubt I think the challenge of trying to humanise the most inhuman action human can undertake humanity can undertake which is armed conflict has always fundamentally been one of the most challenging issues so I think the review both is comforting but should be and I've certainly found this edition that we want to launch tonight very challenging and scarily challenging as any good piece of writing should be it starts with a piece that I'm not going to go through each of the articles because you'll all read them or if you haven't you will but what I love is it starts with human agency it starts with Sima Samir and really compellingly lays out the I would say the meta issues through one woman's experience and I think it's very brave and very important for academic journals to take into account the individual as I said the human agency of these issues or we get dislocated and then at the very end it finishes on a very reflective piece by Dr. Fiona Terry which should keep you awake at night those of us in the humanitarian I just wanted to quote a section because what Fiona finishes in a way goes back to the start of what Sima starts in the to the two versions she asks a question that I think we should all ask when we work in this area today if you ask the Afghan population at large would have difficulty in articulating what humanitarian action is about what would a woman as Eve said going to take her children to a hospital think about this wonderful things that we all do every day and sometimes love to pat ourselves on the back about which we need to to keep our courage, our resilience and our tenacity but if you asked a member of the population what would they think and Fiona writes many would say it's a tool to help win the war others would say it's a vector through which to establish a new model of society compatible with western values most would denounce it as a cover for spending millions of dollars to buy loyalty from former warlords and hopefully would still say it's about helping those who are hurt by war and they're the sort of questions I think we have to ask rather than perhaps feeling very comfortable as we should though on the amount of money spent being a part of the editorial board of the international review is a great honour and in some ways I represent this part of the world so the other thing I wanted to plead tonight is please get in touch with me and if you've got a burning question that you want to spend time writing about please either suggest topics that you'd like to include or think about engaging in it the articles are longer we're going to hear from the beautiful piece I think very eloquent piece of Bill Maylee who over many years absorbs this history and can provide it to us in a way that's quite exciting but I think in this part of the world we do have some good discussions we do have some really interesting things to contribute to the international review I wanted to quickly flag the upcoming topic so you can start thinking over the holidays why eat Christmas dinner when you can write an article on it shall I say in June the next version is on armed groups a very interesting topic understanding armed groups and the law applicable not writing about but trying to understand we then have engaging with armed groups the future of humanitarian action occupation, new technologies of warfare that we've articulated about previously as a big issue healthcare in danger a really important topic we spend a lot of time talking about state actors, non-state actors in the sense of perhaps those irregular arms bearers but what is the business community which has always been on the cutting edge of exploration what is the business community and conflicts got to do with each other and then in 2013 it'll look at the ICRC in international relations so we've got some really juicy topics we've got an opportunity to contribute hopefully you will enjoy as well as be challenged reading particularly the one we launching tonight which is on Afghanistan and I won't take up any of your time with my marketing so you can actually get to the substance so thank you and you can see why Helen's been selected to represent us on the board and her writing is equally as elegant and that message about wisdom and Helen I was sitting at the back of the room at the national conference listening to the new age social media and the benefits and there are lots of them but we're a little bit old fashioned and certainly if we can get to that wisdom through to written word and the reviews been doing that for many years and I certainly enjoyed reading the articles and none more so than Professor Mayleys who in a very short concise and being a lawyer I'm continuously telling my lawyers get that message across make it simple get your people into the story and he certainly did that in a very few short pages really spanned a vast array of very complex issues to do with the history and the political makeup that is now the Afghanistan that we're engaged in so if I can ask Professor Mayleys to share some of thoughts with you Thank you Rick Could I begin by saying it's a great pleasure for us at the Asia Pacific College of Diplomacy here at the ANU to be able to co-host this event we have a long and warm working relationship with both the Australian Red Cross which I've been a member for more than 40 years now and also with the International Committee and my own involvement with the International Committee goes back to when I first went to Afghanistan and was able to recognise almost instantly that it was an actor like none other on the scenery there distinguished both by the length of its presence on the ground but also by the depth of understanding of the complexities of the situation in Afghanistan which its staff manifested almost on a daily basis and in cooperation with their colleagues from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies I'm also glad that I haven't mentioned the particular contribution to these special issues of the International Review by Dr Fiona Terry this is a very personal matter I was one of her PhD supervisors when she wrote the thesis on which her brilliant and widely discussed book condemned to repeat the paradox of humanitarian action was based and that was not only to be widely reviewed in journals of the highest quality but also to be awarded the gravamire prize for the best book of the year on international relations in 2002 and as with all her writings her article in the special issue of the review repays very close attention informed as it is not only by academic expertise but also by the extensive field work in which she has engaged for many years and I actually remember sitting in the garden of the UN guest house in Kabul during the Taliban period giving her detailed comments on one of the chapters which she managed to finish and get to me which I was then under extreme pressure to return to her expeditiously as a supervisor should what I want to do in my brief remarks is make four points about the situation in Afghanistan and I'm happy to expand on these in the question period first point I want to make is that the situation in Afghanistan is and for a long time has been extremely complex structurally Afghanistan is a complex environment in which there is a multiplicity of different ethnic identification to be found in which different languages are spoken in which different sectarian affiliations are found as we tragically witnessed on Tuesday this week with the gruesome attack here in Kabul just near the ISA headquarters and it's also geographically complex with the lives of people in rural areas differing in significant ways from those of urban dwellers in towns and the relatively small number of cities it's also worth noting however that these elements of structure have been subject to significant change in recent years because of the severe disruption which Afghanistan experienced following the communist coup of April 1978 and then the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 which led to huge population displacement and detached many people from mechanisms of traditional socialization to which otherwise they would have been exposed and one of the worst mistakes that one can make when talking about Afghanistan is to see groups purely in terms of tradition without recognising the mere fact that people may grow long beards and where turbines doesn't necessarily mean that they are manifestations of a traditional society in fact one can argue that a group like the Taliban was far more a symptom of the dislocation of traditional society through decades of displacement in refugee camps than it was of any kind of traditional patterns of affiliation and normative attachment within the rural areas with the bulk of the population there Afghanistan is also complex in political terms since 2001 there has been a transition process which was shaped by the Bonn Agreement of December 2001 the 10th anniversary which has just been marked by a major diplomatic conference that was held last Monday in Bonn nonetheless that proves not to offer a magic solution to Afghanistan's problems the institutions were devised as part of that process having some respects proved dysfunctional and certainly rather weak a significant element of elite disharmony and disunity persists within the country and in many areas the hopes of ordinary people that they would be offered clean government and a law government society have been disappointed instead poor governance and a near total absence of the rule of law have proved to be the order of the day and indeed a fine book was published by Cambridge University Press last year the same publisher that produces the international review entitled the rule of law in Afghanistan missing in inaction and that sadly captures what is the daily reality for ordinary people who find that rather than law being a check on the power of the powerful instead it's twisted and manipulated to be yet another instrument in the hands of powerful people who can use it to achieve their objectives at the expense of the vulnerable it's also the case that socially Afghanistan has experienced decades of disruption and this displacement of the population both in the refugee experience and through internal displacement has been one of the factors compounding the level of trauma which years of war produced within Afghanistan one point I sometimes make to colleagues from the military who are going to Afghanistan is that the mere fact that people may smile at them doesn't necessarily mean that they're not carrying with them an enormous amount of trauma there are walking wounded on a grand scale to be found in Afghanistan and to give you a statistic which captures it according to the best demographic study of population loss in Afghanistan during the 1980s done by a demographer of this university on average between 1978 and 1987 over 240 people were killed every day for 10 years straight and for all the talk about civilian casualties in Afghanistan at the moment the daily rate at present is running at about 3% of what was the average daily rate during the 1980s although that of course does not mean that civilian casualties now are not a very serious problem not only for the families that lose family members but also in political terms it's purely a point about the scale of trauma to which people were exposed many of them in their formative years during the 1980s when one puts these kind of factors together one is fairly obviously witnessing a combustible environment but that is then complicated by the strategic and geopolitical context as well Afghanistan has for decades now been a theatre in which there has been really intense geopolitical competition for influence or even near control amongst various states of the neighbourhood and beyond and this of course takes shape in the context of the toxic relations that have long existed between India and Pakistan following the partition of the subcontinent in 1947 the ongoing stress over Kashmir the loss of East Pakistan in the Bangladesh war in 1971 all of which have compounded to create a situation in which Pakistan has great fear that in the event of a renewed conflict with India a pro-Indian Afghanistan could tip the balance decisively in favour of India in the event of war occurring which in turn has created an incentive for some circles in Pakistan at least to support various surrogates within Afghanistan in various kind of ways and to that extent Afghanistan in different stages in its recent history has been exposed to what one might almost call a creeping invasion and dealing with that has proved to be a very difficult challenge politically and diplomatically for international actors and to give you a sense of some of the evidence that supports this in my paper in the review I quote an observation that was made in from President Musharraf of Pakistan during a visit to Kabul in which he said there is no doubt Afghan militants are supported from Pakistani soil the problem that you have in your region is because support is provided from our side and I think that's a very insightful and credible observation from somebody in Musharraf's position and of course it highlights one of the dilemmas of the situation in Afghanistan sovereignty is an intimate claim of states but sovereignty imports duties as well as rights and one of the duties of sovereignty is to prevent one's territory from being used for attacks on the territory of friendly neighbors now battered by whom those attacks may be launched and to give you one further piece of information which underpins this in 2010 the last year total number of improvised explosive devices used in Afghanistan was 14,468 now when that is the case we are not talking about unhappy farmers concerned with poor governments at the local level we're talking about industrial scale activities to produce explosives of this sort that require the backing of fairly elaborate bureaucratic and organisational structures so put all these together and you can see why the situation is difficult it's also a dynamic situation and even his remarks touched very much on this that the commitment of international actors to a winding down in Afghanistan by 2014 has created an enormous amount of apprehension within elements of the Afghan population but above and beyond that it's also treated a process in which all sorts of people are positioning themselves to be optimally placed at the point when international protection substantially disappears and this is not only something which has happened up to this point in various respects but it is something which has the potential to produce southern and catastrophic shifts in political alignment in the next couple of years it does not pay to be seen to have been on the wrong side in Afghanistan and if the perception takes widespread route that the Taliban are going to come back then we shouldn't count on being able to manage a gentle extrication of international forces from Afghanistan or for that matter Aigwick because the danger is that all sorts of groups in order to ensure their position in the aftermath of the Taliban coming back will try to shift their attachments preemptively and that will create potentially an environment of shifting sands within which a lot of the assumptions about how things will be managed in the next two years may be thwarted by the unexpected it's also the case and again the Tuesday attacks highlight this that we may witness the emergence of new political forces it's simply not the case as some have suggested that Shiite Muslims and ethnic Hazaras have been free of danger in recent times and have been decapitated in Urazgon the province in which Australian forces have deployed just last June but mass bombings of Shiite in urban areas have been rare up to this point and one needs to go back to the massacre of 2,000 Hazaras in three days by the Taliban in Lazare-Sharif in August 1998 to come to something of equivalent gruseliness nonetheless what's striking about this event is that the responsibility was initially claimed by a radical Sunni group which has been active in Pakistan since the 1990s and more recently a caller to the BBC has claimed responsibility for the attack on behalf of what he said was an Afghan off-shoot of Lashgate-I-Jung-V drawing on people from Wadak province who have allegedly committed themselves to a continuation of these kind of attacks and should not occur the situation for Shiites in Afghanistan could prove very dangerous indeed. There are of course positive signs as well as negative signs when one looks at dynamic factors in Afghanistan and one of the positive developments there which strikes virtue of everybody who engages with the country is that the young people of Afghanistan are some of the brightest and most impressive people that one would meet in any country in the world. Sadly however many of them are suffering under the weight of a dead hand of the past because when the bureaucratic structure of the new Afghan state was fixed by the allocation of departments to different political factions at the Bonn conference in 2001 this set the scene for ministers and senior officials to be appointed not on the basis of expertise but rather on the basis of their political connections that the ministries had been allocated and that has created a sad situation in which there are brilliant young people in many of the ministries but very often their superiors would rather see their initiatives fail than see them flourish with a young person gaining credit and finding mechanisms by which the talents of these people can be nurtured is a real challenge. It's actually a challenge in which agencies such as the International Committee have played an important role because again if one looks at the local staff of bodies such as the ICRC in Afghanistan one can't but be struck by not only their dedication but also the dynamism that they themselves can bring and I think it's actually very important to reflect on the way in which what are often seen as international operations within Afghanistan are actually partnerships in which some of the skills expertise and structural advantages which international actors can bring are crucially automated and accentuated by the genius of the fine people at the local level who work for them. Perhaps I've already made the third point that I want to emphasize now but that is that the situation in Afghanistan is extremely dangerous. It's dangerous because it's dangerous first and all for Afghans if the situation really turns to custard in Afghanistan it is the people of Afghanistan who will suffer more than anyone else. The interview with Dr. Seema Samar at the beginning of the first of the two special issues brings this out very clearly. I think there's a great apprehension on the part of women in Afghanistan at the moment that the fragile gains of the last decade could easily be traded away diplomatically for the sake of the will of a wisp accommodation with the Taliban that would probably deliver parking diplomatically but which could compromise the commitment to core values which have so far been trumpeted by international actors as central to the legitimacy of the process of transition. The situation however is also exceedingly dangerous for the region and although regional stability in South Asia is not typically the kind of argument that will be produced by political leaders in Europe or Australia to justify a continued presence in Afghanistan if one puts aside the particular needs of Afghans themselves this is probably the strongest single reason for remaining engaged. If at the end of the day the perception is that the international commitment to Afghanistan has unraveled and that the international operation there has failed there is a very real risk that this will provide extimulus to radical groups in the region not al-Qaeda although al-Qaeda continues to be more actively involved in Afghanistan than some reporting would suggest but rather groups like Lashqi Poyba which could easily be stimulated to attempt in India another large scale terrorist attack of the sort that we saw in November 2008. If that would occur it's not clear to me that there's a force on earth that could stop the Indians from responding and certainly don't want to be around if that happens. It's also a dangerous environment for Australia with troops on the ground who would need to be extricated and of course although I don't see this as a danger as such a collapse in Afghanistan is likely to lead to significant additional outflows in the direction of Australia of refugees whose claims to be refugees under the 1951 convention would be almost indisputable under the circumstance and given that Australia is typically the first country to the east which they encounter which is actually a party to the refugee convention the notion that frippery such as the Malaysian solution would be able to deter people from coming in Australia's direction under those circumstances would be wishful thinking of the dreamiest possible variety. So this kind of challenge could arise as well. That brings me to my final point given all these complexities given these dynamic tendencies and given the dangers in Afghanistan there is no substitute for high quality analysis of exactly what's going on and this is where the special issues of the international review have something very special to offer There is internationally a great deal of expertise on Afghanistan and the editorial board and the editors have done a wonderful job of mustering that expertise together in a way that anyone can read with profit and with the hope of illumination. The first edition deals with a range of issues which could be seen as the broad political and social context of challenges in Afghanistan dealing with the history and the geopolitics the interaction between religion and our conflict, transnational networks, the problems of impunity and insurgency state building and the responsibilities of Afghans themselves in the rebuilding of their country as well as issues related to the rule of law. The second special issue then takes up very important issues relating to law and drawing on the long engagement of the ICRC as the custodian of the principles of international humanitarian law and as an organization which has long been a brilliant role to play which it again has executed superbly in trying to familiarize people in Afghanistan with not only the importance but also the detail of international humanitarian law and almost the first ICRC staffer I met many, many years ago in Afghanistan when I was looking at these issues was a remarkable man called Jean Pascal Movey who would spend half his year as a taxi driver in Geneva and half his year working as a delegate for the ICRC disseminating international humanitarian law in unlikely environments for taxi drivers and I thought this was actually a wonderful demonstration of a point which is often overlooked but which in a way is central to the identity of the Red Cross. The Red Cross as a movement has flourished because of the role that ordinary people have played it's a remarkable mixture of the high level engagement of the International Committee in the Federation and a multiplicity of national societies in many different parts of the world that have propagated an understanding of the core principles of the Red Cross and of the history of its contribution to attempts in a modest but nonetheless significant way to produce some degree of civilisation in circumstances of war which until Jean Henri du Nord witnessed the carnage of Solferino in 1859 had often been unconstrained by norms of that sort it's happily the case that in Australia there is a very strong condition within the national society of articulation of these kind of norms. I'm happy to discover this afternoon that a very old friend of the Red Cross in Australia, Dr Mike Kelly has in the Cabinet reshuffle been appointed as Parliamentary Secretary for Defence with specific responsibility for oversight of the transition within Afghanistan to 2014 and we can be confident because of his long-term involvement that the concerns of Red Cross will be very much built into the management of processes of change there but in conclusion the expertise of Red Cross mixed with the history of community involvement there has created the basis for an understanding of the complexities of Afghanistan that I think no other organisation has been either in a position to contribute or has proved able to contribute and in that sense the event that we have this evening is a manifestation of an attribute of the role of Red Cross in bridging elite and mass concerns within the society which we at the Australian National University are very proud to have been able to support. Thank you very much. Thank you Professor, as engaging as ever and I'll recall that I was one of your students doing my Masters and certainly one of the lessons I look forward to to spend some time with Bill and discuss the sort of issues that he raised today. I'm glad there was a hit of optimism there with the youth and I would add in the review some of the articles by the women were also very inspiring and their stories and their endurance and their ability to continue and build a better future for themselves. I think there is hope and we're certainly there as Australians assisting with that. We've got some time for some questions or some comments perhaps I'll moderate from here and direct the questions to our panellists. Who would like to start? I'd like to ask either question if I may have the pleasure of hearing you speak three times during the short few days that you've been here in Australia and I commit you on your energy I have to say. One of the themes that has been very evident and one that struck me in the various things that you've had to say is the likelihood indeed I guess it would be more accurate to say the certainty of continuing change into the near to the future and I wondered what you had to say about the continuing adequacy and applicability and relevance of international humanitarian law to this changing environment. You said a lot about the changing, the likely changing nature in our conflicts and the likely change in the actors that will be involved in our conflicts. I'm thinking about comments such as the one famously made by former US Secretary of Defense Don Rumsfeld who once described the Geneva Conventions as quaint and on the assumption that that's a view that you certainly do not share I wonder what you could say to the audience by way of suggestions as to how those views might be rebutted in the highly dynamic environment about which you spoke and since you've been here in Australia Thank you As we all say in this case it's a very good question, thank you very much and a very serious one and I would be happy to have also Adam and me joining you in the restaurant I think the first element is I think we should be careful about what we talk about change. It's true it's a rapidly developing situation but I think some of the questions we are tackling in terms of international and international law remain the same so the first element we are strongly convinced that whatever we talk about it, we think that the Geneva Conventions therefore are extremely relevant to the fundamental and I think we still feel that the first issue is about implementing an implementing law and that's one of the reasons I was so pleased to see the world done in Australia, in this country very strategic for us and we do believe very importantly that we need to have international law being integrated at all the level, very very very very critical for us and I think the implementation of international law remain for us, we need the centre of what we need to do and we ensure that a lot of people are going that's one, that's a well said and I think to be clear, maybe the second element is we feel we need to be careful to not when we talk about change be too much of a defensive nature and I mean maybe it's a time now when we can maybe also reflect more of warfare but also some of the big questions we raise, so let me maybe say two or three things, one is we at the ICSE over the last four years we looked at humanitarian problems from the ground as always as we do and we looked at some of the response that the law can give and was there problems in terms of law or whether from implementation, we selected four problems where we thought out of 36 we thought that in fact truly law, international law could be improved or there could be some clarity the four issues were internally displacement protection of the environment detention and mechanism of implementation of the law and we looked into that and at international conference we discussed that with the country states are important for that in fact we have agreed to work on mainly two area, one is detentions we think absolutely that in terms of judicial guarantee, transfer there is a work to be done and suddenly there is a way to improve possibly the treaty law of that aspect the same on mechanism of implementation there is clearly a place where we think there is a way and I think there is a way also where we need to mobilize the international community in moving in that direction but that is only one element I think the other element for us is all customary law I think all the study done on customary law is a very important element and I think we don't have a discussion on customary law some states as you know have a different opinion about that but we are absolutely of the conviction that customary law are central to the improvement and to the interpretation of international law so we need to look, we don't see law as something just in the shell developing and moving in the right direction and understanding the interpretation last but not least there are 10 questions and they are difficult to know I think they are a question of clarification I think you know that it will create quite a lot of tensions about direct participation of hostilities I think it is important for us as an organization that we reach out to experts and try to agree maybe not always perfectly but try to understand what we mean we are trying to be practical to see how it works I think we are working also on the notion of occupation what does that mean? Recognizing that interpretation of some of the notions into the internal conflict are difficult and last but not least all the question of cyber war is something very complex we are watching that very carefully so far we need also we, ICS, to understand better but we need also to make sure that we are able to engage also stating that type of questions in order to really improve if possible so roughly speaking really two elements one the first one making sure that we don't always forget that the first four months is about implementation which means implementation is not about only states but engaging audiences and groups like we mentioned Afghanistan, the Taliban we need to find ways to engage them that type of discussion and being able to really follow the development of possible developments around that and I think what is interesting we got an interesting resolution from the international conference which normally paved the way with the plan of actions we know it takes time but I think we are in a we think we are an option to make the necessary I don't know if there anyone to add just very briefly and because I think it was an excellent question actually talking about IGL the first thing that's raised by people it's irrelevant it's quaint I mean as a lawyer for a moment let me be a little bit boring if you're digging to the where that quote came from and others that Jeffrey Robinson made it was actually in relation to the quaintness that the Geneva Conventions the third Geneva Convention requires prisoners of war to be given musical instruments well actually the article doesn't require that the article requires I won't bore you but I think it's really important to say that the article allows prisoners of war to get care packages that can include amongst other things musical instruments because I'd be really interested to know what is quaint about distinction what is quaint about proportionality and what is quaint about unnecessary suffering I mean I think at the fundamental essence the quaintness is not about the fundamental principles of law not the Red Cross for Red Crescent ones and I think the devil is in the detail always the RC and certainly Stratford Red Cross in any organisation looking at the laws of war is about clarification it's about scanning where the holes were everything was changing but I would love to I did ask I've spent a lot of time asking diplomats about tell me the quaint bits I'm really genuinely interested the bits that are totally irreverently outdated and I don't get a very good answer but maybe that's me I might have been one of the unknown unknown's the gentleman up to back I'd be happy to explain the difference between the Red Cross and the Red Crescent what extent do they cooperate with each other how do the same organisations have identical philosophies certainly what a delightful question thank you hopefully you don't get a chance to do pure dissemination and even probably be able to do this better but very very briefly the Red Cross and the Red Crescent are exactly the same I've had the privilege where it was two to attend the International Red Cross and the Red Crescent Conference on movement and Geneva last week basically to cut a long story short a number of countries felt when they were looking at in 1929 whether or not they used the Red Cross that they had a history of people riding over the hills with big Red Cross on their front, slaughtered in public and thought perhaps this history doesn't fit us so well so the inverse of the Swiss flag which is the Red Cross emblem was the reason the inverse of the Turkish flag could be used with those countries who didn't want to use the Red Cross and so across the world now I don't know the numbers exactly but we have 47 Red Crescent now let's be really clear it is not a Christian religious Islamic divide Indonesia the largest Muslim country in the world uses the Red Cross Lebanon is the Red Cross it is a much more nuanced dialogue it's not a sound bite that you can put into a short radio interview but basically our colleagues in the Red Cross and Red Crescent follow the fundamental principles part of the statutes of the movement and in every way stand shoulder to shoulder with everything we do so our county Red Crescent and in Australia just to let you know under the Geneva Conventions Act section 15 it's illegal to use the Red Cross all the Red Crescent all the Red Crystal without the Minister of Defence's permission so under Australian law domestic law our act gives the same effect as the cross you might as well tell a story which brings that out the Red National Red Cross Society has had responsibility at different stages for monitoring misuse of the the emblem and there was a medical practice at Sydney Airport which was using the Red Cross to advertise its premises which is a violation of the the act and they were set a polite suggestion they might move away from this use and they totally ignored it but then a group of disheveled and extremely exhausted refugees from Afghanistan arrived by plane at Sydney Airport and were not met by the people whom they expected would be there and so they went looking for Sucker and discovered that the one emblem that they recognised was the Red Cross so they sat down in the waiting room with this medical practice announced they were not going to leave this was not actually the kind of customer that the practice would see attract and they changed their emblem very quickly I'd love this to be at the time because we write very nice letters and then further on to defense but I suggested to the Secretary-General whether we could set up little refugee camps outside all the places we would be choosing the emblem and he told me I was far too creative to go away I love that story because it demonstrates the real traction so and the refugees themselves knew the Red Cross emblem from Afghanistan and that's the key point of the film and we're still waiting for the first Red Crystal society sorry I've already indicated up to back with the laptop can I start? you can come to us in Afghanistan he has a Namibia, Tunisia and Syria and the situation is quite difficult to identify the effective government or governments with power and control over their country how does the international community organize actions such as the Red Cross go about deciding which government of the day to deal with I would say I would hope pretty differently for us it's not that all the international community needs to design which government we are dealing with it's our responsibility to deal with the government and all parties of the government if I answered your question I think we are already dealing with governments and with authorities around the world and we're trying to do that in this situation of conflict now if I understood what your question is is that enough is the international community doing more I think what we need to look at and I hope that we will look at it's very clear that what the type of response we can provide is a response which is limited we are able to respond to the consequences of the situation to the consequences of war on conflict but we look at Afghanistan we need to be able to provide the solutions for peace in Afghanistan or we won't be able to provide the solutions for stabilization in the country and it's very important that we understand which is clearly the limit of the United Nations and I think that's one of the problems we've seen all the time is that under humanitarian objectives you hide other objectives I think we have specific United Nations objectives I think they are important but they are limited I think we need to make sure that in Syria, in Syria, in Egypt, in Tunisia if we want the international community to have a minimum of stabilization that means to have an economic a political effort which is a conjunction of that and I think that would really clear this in what we can do what we can provide and what needs to be provided the international community my concern is when I see the international community I don't know what we call about but let's say when I say for example some UN organization or when I see a country moving into a country willing in a way to go for humanitarian or a military objective and mixing the two objectives that's a real concern because it has an impact on the people on the ground it has an impact on us too and then we are unclear one of the problems you will see you will have an enormous discussion in this country what, was it worthwhile yes or no to go in Afghanistan it's a very difficult question the problems you will have is you measure that against which objective was it an objective of you know, security objective was it about al-Qaeda was it about stabilizing the country wanting to helping humanitarian aid and I think one of the problems I've seen for Afghanistan not only Afghanistan the same for Libya right now is a constant change of objective which make it very difficult then to be able to have a real discussion and that's I don't know if I respond to your question but that's my real concern humanitarian we're there to do a humanitarian work it's an important one we should also be held accountable are we good or not and I can tell you I'm extremely critical also about the level of engagement of humanitarian actors in Afghanistan but other places also really there is a lot to say about Afghanistan maybe about the commitment we should also be careful about what were the objectives of the international community in Afghanistan on the basis and I think that would be helpful if we were at a clarity of the objective that would really help a lot I don't know if that's your question on the point with whom one engages in 1987 almost 25 years ago the Australian government in its recognition policy moved away from recognizing governments as well as states to a position in which it would recognize states only and under that rubric would then deal with a range of different actors and I think in practice this is what a lot of humanitarian agencies find themselves doing as well but depending upon their particular philosophies they engage with those with whom it is necessary to engage in order to give effect to their principles and achieve the particular objectives which accompany a mission and there's nothing unusual about that kind of approach just on the last point that Eve was making I didn't touch on this but there is a very messy environment surrounding humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan there are some established actors such as the ICRC and some other actors who belong to a presence in Afghanistan that understand the situation very well that are clear about what it is that they are attempting to do which have their own sense of what are the red lines that they want to engage in however there has been a enormous amount of money coming into the country in the last decade or so billions which have had at least some have had the effect of attracting all sorts of new contributors to the landscape private commercial contractors with very different ethos from the long standing agencies that have been involved on the ground and then subcontract their activities to actors who are not reluctant to grease the palms of government officials in order to get the kind of approvals which are necessary to operate in a complex bureaucratic environment and this has contributed to a situation in which for ordinary people looking upwards the reputation of humanitarian assistance is not the same as it was 25 years ago that have come in and have a money of orders and some would say poison the well First two weeks ago we had a technical conference and the minister for it after for no way made one interesting comment he said he called in terms of value of engagement his last ten years a lost decade and what was his point including state UICSC you engage always all parties with your very pragmatic approach and you are impartial and neutral we stayed we didn't do that based on ideology because we said this group is a terrorist group so a terrorist group we don't speak to a terrorist we almost pick it up and suddenly ten years later what happened we as states would not be able to engage about stabilization I know it's complicated but how to do that we not engage Hamas we not engage the Taliban it was the Norwegian minister of affairs saying that including nowhere and how do we do that and suddenly we rediscover the Taliban when it is useful but it's too late to know and I think it's a very interesting point and good reflections you may have a clear perspective but I think government and state officials are thinking about it and I know it's a complex one but I think we need to move it we're waiting for more questions and that is a very complex discourse to have with the public I get at the end of the phone that the public being very angry because I've heard that the red cross is involved in training first aid to the Taliban in Afghanistan and to try and have an engagement discourse out there and to try and have an engagement that this is actually something that is good to have that sort of interface rather than something that as red cross and people don't understand the ICRC versus the National Society a red cross is a red cross is a red cross so I think that it's something we need to talk about more in society about how within the parameters and understanding the framework of anti terrorist organizations and legislation how to ensure we keep this dialogue open and that's it that last question Thank you I'm a 12th grader I'm a PhD student and I'm researching on Afghanistan I have two questions one from colleagues from ICRC the question is that basically in the last 10 years aid has been militarized and politicized in Afghanistan and this has created a lot of complexities and the country among the public can also with a base the answer to this how do you see the challenge after like 2014 as we call it the transition process the impact of such a legacy on your world and second question based on that how do you see the political arrangement in Afghanistan because why why aid is declining and militarily supported declining to Afghanistan of course more should be put on political like approaches so how do you see it's not only to to accelerate reconciliation process but what about the political architecture in Afghanistan to make it a long story very short we think the next two or three years difficult to go further would be more difficult we have no doubt on that one including for us, ICRC and for our colleagues of the Afghanistan we think that but to be honest I don't think it's only because of the politicization of aid I think there is an issue about that we felt that already for a long time we put us more under pressure to prove every day that we are serious about that the good news is I think Afghan people are well informed in a way, maybe not by radio but I think they are also aware on some of the things so they are not talking, the community are aware of what is happening really what is not happening I think so but nevertheless it's a daily challenge to be able to prove and I think people they really want you to prove that you are able to do that so it's nice to say that you are neutrally partial I think it's a question about able to demonstrate that the real question I have is we could easily lose that ability if we are not able to be close to where it happens and that's my concern because we can't come it happens to us from time to time in a vicious circle where for security reasons we have to go back I would say to towns urban area, we cannot reach anymore of the people and it is the same for the Afghan Red Cross and then we are in trouble because then people are not able to see us but we are, I think the issue is in Afghanistan you cannot just wait to be able to come to you you have to go to there, it seems obvious but I think it's a big issue and here that's my concern my concern is in 12, 13 if we and hope we're wrong but if the situation is more dangerous if there are more tensions within Afghanistan there's more civil war type of it might be difficult for the Afghan Red Cross it might be more difficult for us too let's be honest I have at least in some part of the of the country so that's what I would say then beyond that we'll have to look I think beyond that what will be important in the coming time I think what people recognize in Afghanistan is the fact that the Red Cross has been committed for enormous time and I think then if you look at the level of suffering also I don't know if I just look at figures I think you know that we just mentioned we need to study in 2009 about the presence of Afghan reporters to have lost the property and destroyed the lost 20% of people have been detained 33% of people injured so it gives you just a sense of this population has gone through now decades of war and they are all affected it means on the other hand they have all in a way another felt our presence and they are able to judge that but it's true the judgment can change tomorrow I'd endorse what you've just said the same thing about Afghanistan is that there's a population probably between 20 and 25 million probably no more than 150,000 have caused all the trouble for everyone the vast bulk of the population has simply been trying to survive in circumstances that are completely beyond their control politically and they deserve enormous sympathy with the kind of challenges that they've faced just imagine the sky falling that's the kind of thing we've written in terms of political institutions I think a lot of people would look at politics and say this is a profoundly dysfunctional system it's partly because the constitution which was put in place in 2004 has had unintended consequences for example it's not typically a brilliant idea to have an attempt to build a strong presidential system in a country with multiple different ethnic groups because at the end of the day the likelihood is that one group will see itself as the winner and many groups will see themselves as the losers which is not the case in a parliamentary system where you can create the impression that each group has a certain place in the sun by virtue of members in a meaningful parliamentary chamber having said that it is however very difficult to procure reforms of constitutional systems even if they're dysfunctional because almost by definition the people on whom one relies to initiate reform are those who are the beneficiaries of the justice system the people who have been elected to office of various types and a turkey stone boat for Christmas so I'm not at all optimistic that we will see any of the kinds of reforms to the constitutional structure that are routinely discussed by international experts ever progressing and it has real implications for 2014 because it's largely overlooked that 2014 is not just a terminal state for some forms of international involvement it's also a scheduled date for the next presidential election in this country and elections are divisive activities that create winners and losers and losers typically don't like it and that can set the scene for the kind of epic fraud that we saw in the 2009 election which was probably not orchestrated by President Karstle but almost certainly orchestrated by people in his circle who feared that if the incumbent were defeated they too would fall a long way before they hit rock bottom and if that were to be attempted again in 2014 which is a very real risk if you get away with fraud on a couple of occasions it becomes the norm of political practice at a main league level then the potential for something like that to create an explosion in an environment which will already be extremely fraught because of the winding down of international presence shouldn't be underestimated not much keeps me awake at night but I have a feeling that as the election looms I'm going to need my monodont thank you very much for those questions and for your patience I'm sure it was no great deal about the quality of the answers if I can just conclude the session now there's a couple of ads that are in cross publications up the back please feel free to help yourself and there's also an opportunity to sign up on the IHLE newsletter and we urge you to do that and keep in touch and I think you'll find us some interesting information thank you first to our host Professor Maley and the Aged Pacific College of Diplomacy here at the ANU it's been a terrific venue but of course our speakers for their outstanding contribution for tonight I found it fascinating and thank you all for coming tonight also for those who helped us at the venue up the ACT IHLE team and the ICRC team and of course facilitating it has come so far away so if I can first distribute the goodies do you want to know thank you very much now host Professor Maley I can give you a small talk about your appreciation if you're ready is that granny enough no good night