 Good afternoon everybody I'm pleased to welcome you to this IIEA webinar and we're delighted to be joined today by Ambassador Nick Burns who has been generous enough to take time out of his busy schedule to talk to us to speak to us to take our questions and this afternoon. Ambassador Burns will give his presentation on the crisis in transatlantic relations and will also discuss other global challenges including the US relationship with NATO and the European Union. Ambassador Burns will draw on his distinguished career in the US Foreign Service to discuss the evolving US-EU relationship ahead of November's elections and the light of the challenges presented by COVID-19 and the economic crisis. After Ambassador Burns shares his initial remarks you'll be able to join the discussion using the Q&A function on Zoom as usual which you should see on your screen and this event is on the record and in asking a question please identify yourself and your affiliation if any. Please feel free to send your questions in throughout the session as they occur to you and please feel free also to join the discussion on Twitter using the handle at IIEA. Ambassador Nick Burns is the Goodman professor of the practice of diplomacy and international relations at Harvard Kennedy School. He is executive director of the Aspen Strategy Group and the Aspen Security Forum and a senior counselor at the Cohen Group. During his 27 years in the US Foreign Service Ambassador Burns served as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Ambassador to NATO and Ambassador to Greece, State Department spokesman, senior director for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia Affairs at the NSC, special assistant to President Clinton and director for Soviet Affairs for President George H. W. Bush. So in addition to being a distinguished and proud American Ambassador Burns has deep Irish roots so we can rightfully also claim him as one of our own. So in any event Nick you're very very welcome indeed this afternoon welcome to Dublin if even virtually we look forward to your remarks and your engagement with our members thereafter so welcome. Good afternoon Ambassador thank you so much for this warm welcome it's a pleasure to be with you and and all your the participants today I wish we could be in Dublin in a better world in a different world I would have come over I would have loved to have done that but that it will leave that for another day. I thought Ambassador in talking about Trent Atlantic relations and talking about US relations with the Republic of Ireland it might be good just to go over review a couple of the major trend lines that we see and then I'm looking forward to a good conversation and good questions obviously Ambassador as we Americans look out at the rest of the world the dominant issue here the dominant issue in our campaign is the pandemic the coronavirus pandemic as well as the recession which we're feeling in a very heavy way here it's it's the most serious recession since 1933 when Franklin Roosevelt came into office and the New Deal began and I think what we're talking about here is the failure of the United States the European Union China Russia the other big countries in the world to coalesce effectively to fight the coronavirus I actually would have expected at the very beginning of the crisis back in January February March of this year that China and the United States would have put it put down their cudgels and they would have found a way to cooperate I would have said the same thing about Russia the European Union the United States and none of it has happened we've seen the failure of the UN system not because of the Secretary General of the UN because the major countries have decided not to work through the UN in the great recession of 2008 and 2009 you'll remember the G20 became the organizing vehicle to try to unite the world to do something about it and that has not happened the United States and China have decided they're going to compete rather than cooperate the G20 has been a bystander as has been the G7 which is currently being chaired by the United States but President Trump has made really very little use of it we see this most clearly now not just in the immediate response to the coronavirus but also on the search for a vaccine it's every country going in a different direction there has been this effort with the covax global cooperation to try to unite countries around the world in the search for a vaccine and in its distribution which is going to be critical because this vaccine may have to come in two doses for each person to whom it's administered it could be extraordinary it will be extraordinarily difficult to administer 7.7 billion people in the world you'd think you'd want to have global cooperation that has not happened the United States and Russia have said that they will not join the covax consortium China has said well we'll we'll look at it but it's very difficult to see China actually agree to join it and so you have every man and woman in every country for themselves which is not the way for the globe to respond to pandemic to a pandemic and then in addition I think ambassador I must say how much of a mistake I thought it was for the United States to leave the world health organization in the middle of the pandemic it's like withdrawing funds from the fire department in the middle of the fire as the building is burning and coming down there's no question that the WHO did not perform seamlessly back in January and February in a very difficult environment in dealing with the Chinese government there's no question that the Chinese government was not completely above board with the rest of the world but the WHO is I think everybody on this call knows is the most important global health organization and for a lot of countries that are that are poor that are not as wealthy as Ireland or the United States the WHO is the lifeline to those countries in terms of public health information and recommendations and I thought it was I thought it was a great great mistake for the US to walk out of it to a draw our funding and there's so many lessons learned on this issue of the pandemic I would say that we've got to learn the lessons quickly because as we go from coping with the pandemic to hopefully in 2021 a vaccine phase of this we're also going to have to look ahead at future pandemics we've had four in the last 17 years if you count SARS of course in 2003 and H1N1 in 2009 and Ebola in 2014 another coronavirus there's every likelihood that the world will be dealing with future pandemics perhaps is severe perhaps more severe or less severe it doesn't really matter what matters is that the world understand how to work together and it's been I think a very disappointing performance so for the transatlantic relationship that's been a complicating factor I think a second complicating factor in the transatlantic relationship has become China now you won't be surprised to hear me say of course ambassador you know the United States very well having lived here and represented Ireland here that China has become the major preoccupation of both of our political parties and I think of all of our leaders here the US and China had had a good but complicated relationship over the last four years I would say the emphasis had been on engagement on trade on student exchanges that kind of thing with competition that's all changed in the last three or four years now the motivation on both sides of the relationship from Beijing as well as Washington is outright competition for military predominance in the Indo-Pacific region certainly on trade as the United States has accused China and many other countries have as well if not living up to its World Trade Organization commitments definitely in terms of the development of AI artificial intelligence quantum computing biotechnology the leading digital age technologies there's a fierce competition between the United States and China for dominance in the civilian realm but also as these technologies are militarized that adds fuel to the fire I even think there's been in a sort of ideological competition almost reminiscent of the worst days of the Cold War if you listen to Xi Jinping he is touting his system the communist system as the way of the future not just for the Chinese people but for people around the world and of course people in the United States United Kingdom Ireland Western Europe Central Europe don't agree with that right now the odd thing is we don't have a John F Kennedy or Ronald Reagan an American president who would rise to meet that ideological challenge with a degree of confidence in expressing democratic values President Trump has decided that he's not going to stand up for democracy it's not been a at all a priority for him in fact he's been almost silent on this issue and so you have this curious phenomenon with the US and China competing and it's driven both of our political parties in the United States towards outright competition it's hard to tell a Democrat from a Republican on China most Democrats would be supportive of much not all but much of what President Trump has done and the Republicans supporting I think what most Democrats want to do that for us is going to be the central issue going forward in addition of course to climate change and I think it's a challenge with this undoubtedly a challenge for the European Union and I think for the transatlantic relationship for us to stay together how Europe responds to the China challenge is going to be is going to be telling certainly 5G where you've seen the United Kingdom and Australia and the United States all take a position that Hawaii will not be in our networks I know there's a ferocious debate in Germany over this it's part of the succession to succeed among the candidates in the CDU vying to succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel it is now a major issue in France and I know and of course the Irish are a big part of this in the discussions and European councils and Brussels I think this is going to be a major issue for the future of a transatlantic relationship what side will countries fall on and the question we on this side of the Atlantic has is is it possible for the European Union to adopt a common position given the variety of views and given the inroads that China has made through the belt and road initiative with Italy and with Hungary and with Bulgaria and with Greece and with other countries in the Balkans you can almost see a Chinese strategy to divide the European Union from within so that the EU cannot achieve a common position I also think human rights is coming to the fore as we look at China democracy and certainly autonomy and certainly one country two systems went out the window this summer just the last two months as China took these extreme measures doesn't look like Hong Kong is going to be free anytime soon now there are threats to Taiwan of course credible reports for many years of mistreatment of the Uyghur population of western China of Xinjiang province up to a million people put into reeducation camps and if you combine that here's where we would say on this side of the Atlantic Europe needs to have a stronger position on China or at least a common position the Chinese aggression if you will in the South China Sea acting illegally acting well beyond their legal rights in the law of the Sea Treaty of 1972 to effectively colonize much of the Spratly and Paracel islands of the South China Sea to contest Japanese sovereignty in the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea Chinese aggression on the long 2500 mile border between India and China and the aggression of the PLA the People's Liberation Army just in the last two months on the Indian border another Indian soldier killed last week suddenly we're seeing an assertive China that we hadn't seen before China from Deng Chao Ping through Zhang Ximen and Hu Xintao primarily focused on rebuilding China the extraordinary economic Phoenix like rejuvenation of a Chinese economy now under Xi Jinping clearly pushing out to achieve greater military power and political power in a way that I think has almost all the all the neighbors of China quite worried about their future the counter reaction from the United States has been the development of a very close quadripartite coalition with Japan Australia and India designed not to fight China that would be a catastrophe but a limit China's military ambitions I'm saying all this about the US preoccupation China because I think it's been the major issue the President Trump has tried to deal with here in all of its manifestations it's been a major issue in Joe Biden's campaign it's been it is the major issue in American foreign policy and I think as we in the transatlantic relationship go forward certainly a NATO but also in the relationship between the US the European Union the bilateral relationship between the United States and the Republic of Ireland I think you'll hear a lot more from Americans about China the China problem going forward so that's a second after the f of the COVID-19 the recession the second big priority that I see ambassador for the transatlantic relationship a third of course is Russia we feel this most acutely in in NATO of course but Russia continues to be certainly in Ukraine certainly in Georgia with his continued tendentious remarks about Estonia Latvia Lithuania Poland it's an aggressor and it continues to wish under President Putin to effectively have some kind of controlling influence not a reimposition of rule but a controlling influence on those countries south of its border and west of its border we're seeing now the very clear threat that Russia is posing if the demonstrations and Belarus get out of hand if Lukashenko's rule becomes unsteady Putin has clearly said he's ready to intervene that challenge remains with NATO and it's an important challenge and of course you have the figure of Mr. Navalny who is just emerging from medically induced coma in Berlin he the German government says it is 100% sure that he was a victim of a nerd nerve agent attack Novichok so what are we going to do about that what will the European Union and the United States and Canada and the other countries of the West do will there be further sanctions on the Russian Federation will Chancellor Merkel decide to do what she has fought very hard not to do and that is to suspend or cancel all together the Nord Stream to pipeline gas pipeline project these issues of Russia and aggressive Russia with Putin being fairly young man ambassador by urine my estimation he's in his mid 60s Putin is in power for the next 10 to 12 years perhaps even longer and the Russian Federation containing Russian power becomes a renewed preoccupation of NATO and a bigger problem I think for the European Union and trying to work out a common position in the EU on all these issues where Hungary and Greece and other countries are very happy to disrupt the search for a consensus to do their closer relations with the Russian Federation I would also say ambassador we've got a look at Russia's attempt to further destabilize our elections we know the Russians interfered in the German Dutch and French elections of 2017 they certainly interfered in the American presidential election in a decisive way perhaps I was a Hillary Clinton supporter you might expect me to say that but that's an objective statement in 2016 and now our authorities here in the US are telling us that they're sure that the Russians now are active in trying to disrupt our 2020 elections perhaps trying to assist of the president president Trump's campaign I am not suggesting that President Trump is involved in this in any way I'm just suggesting the Russians see that perhaps it's in their interest to have him reelected you have extraordinary developments here in the last week with Facebook going after the Russia after the Russian observer research group this is the organization that originally attacked us in 2016 taking down their Facebook operations but of course they'll just morph into a thousand different online identities to continue their operations this is not a hot war between Russia and and Europe and North America but it's so it's a contest of wills that is taking place in cyberspace that is taking place in more conventional grounds in terms of troop balances in Eastern Europe of course there's the extraordinary and I think very worrisome decline in arms control I know a lot of Europeans are worried about this the INF treaty the intermediate range nuclear force treaty is out of course it went out about a year ago the big question that President Trump or Joe Biden will have to make depending on who's elected is whether or not we continue with the new start agreement that's the strategic nuclear arms agreement that President Obama and President Putin signed a number of years ago I worry ambassador that we're in the most unstable time for nuclear weapons probably since you and I were were young kids in the 1960s and 1970s young students in those days right now arms control between the United States and the West NATO and Russia excuse me Russia and the West NATO and Russia is is suffering at China is completely unconstrained as nuclear weapons development India and Pakistan also unconstrained we don't want to live in a world where there's nuclear weapons uncertainty we had built in certainty over the last few decades now it's disappearing I think that's a major issue for Europeans and Americans going forward finally ambassador let me just say a word about the United States and the United Kingdom because I'm anxious to go to questions from the audience today in Ireland about the United States and here I'm going to portray perhaps my political sensibilities I think the United States is far far weaker with President Trump in charge than we were before I see him as a dramatic departure from the leadership in both political parties he is someone who is he is determined to pursue a unilateralist and sometimes isolationist but really a unilateralist policy of going it alone so you've seen to the great disappointment I think of the majority of Americans you've seen President Trump disavow our alliances he's been the most he's been the only American president since Harry Truman who has ever said a word negative about NATO but it's not just his words it's his actions he hasn't he has not led NATO he has cast doubt on the long-standing interests of the United States has in participating in NATO John Bolton his former national security advisor interviewed with our Aspen security forum a month ago this week and Bolton said and Bolton is about the most conservative person I've ever met the United States government rocker of Republican Bolton said he feared that if President Trump is given a second term President Trump would actually withdraw the United States from NATO so most of us would say here in the United States the great power differential between the U.S. and Russia is the NATO alive 30 of us Canada the United States 28 European countries all together and so if you withdraw from NATO as we have withdrawn from the climate change agreement the Paris agreement as we withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal the international organization of migration during the greatest refugee crisis in 75 years withdrawn now from the World Health Organization we're looking at a lonely United States pursuing unilateral ambitions in a world where you have to create coalitions and you have to create alliances so he's weak in the country in the transatlantic relationship I think the transatlantic relationship is in its worst state relations between the U.S. and Canada and the U.S. in Western Europe in our lifetime that's not where we want it to be not in a world where we're facing so many different challenges from climate change to the China challenge to the Russia challenge to the pandemics he has not been as I said before a defender of democracy and human rights he's been unilateralist on trade and say what you will about the global trade system it floated billions of boats upward in the extraordinary prosperity that the Irish the Americans everyone else have experienced over the last 50 to 60 years there's so much uncertainty a world in the world when the United States turns inward the only silver lining I can suggest to you is that the great majority of Americans in our public opinion polls do not agree with this direction if you go issue-by-issue support for NATO support for trade support for remaining an immigrant nation we are an immigrant nation every one of us comes from someplace else my two of my grandparents as you alluded to came from Claire and Limerick my father's parents my great grandparents on my mom's side came from Limmick Limerick and Kerry and Galway and so you know we all have these ties that make America a unique place and Donald Trump is trying to shut all that down we've caught immigration at half he wants to impose a religious means test on it a hundred years ago Americans tried to keep Catholics out from Ireland and Italy and now President Trump is saying if you live in one of nine majority Muslim countries you're not welcome and for the first time in 70 years we didn't take in a single refugee in December 2019 descent in January 2020 we normally take in 70 to 100,000 refugees a year as we should to to to try to help in the greatest refugee crisis of our time I think President Trump has weakened the United States and we're in we have a a red-hot election underway here I'd be happy to take questions on it I'm a Joe Biden supporter as you can probably tell last word ambassador who would have thought would you and I have predicted five years ago had we been in a similar meeting perhaps in Dublin that the United States and United Kingdom would both be an existential crisis the United States for the reasons I just suggested with the confusion over our strategy and even our purpose in the world the lack of self-confidence the United Kingdom going through and I'll just put this in my words I think having made a disastrous decision to leave the European Union disastrous for the future of the United Kingdom putting putting the United Kingdom itself in peril if you think about the public support for Scottish nationalism and a very hot topic on this side of the Atlantic is to watch what's happening in Ireland and perhaps even future prospects for United Ireland and the United Kingdom acting so inconsistently even last week as you and I were talking about before we came on this program today with a lot of brinksmanship and drama and histrionics in the negotiations between the UK government and a very strong and fine negotiator Michelle Barnier on behalf of the European Union all I can say is Brexit's going to hurt the United Kingdom it's going to diminish the United Kingdom standing in the world and I say that as someone who deeply you know has supported the special relationship between the US and UK for many decades and I just fear that Britain will weaken it won't be good for Ireland it won't be good for the United States it certainly won't be good for the EU Britain was the second largest economy the most globally oriented of all EU countries and so let us hope that there will be a Brexit agreement orderly and that the United Kingdom and Europe and the United Kingdom in the US and Australia and other countries can return to some kind of semblance of normalcy but it doesn't look good now at least if that's what the theatrics from London and Brussels tell us I'm just finished bastard by saying this as the UK has exited a lot of us in the United States who prized the relationship with the EU and I do I do not think that the European Union is a competitor to the United States that's how President Trump sees us I see the UK the EU is perhaps our greatest partner on climate change on the global economy and so on human rights on so many different issues around the world the US is going to have to have stronger relations with individual EU members several of them because Britain will no longer be able to be the connector between the US and the EU the way it was over the last several decades and I have two countries in mind one is Germany of course because of Germany's size and its power and its influence the other is Ireland I do think it's not just sentimental ties that are very important obviously I'm not diminishing that but it's the fact that Ireland Ireland's a connector state connector country between the United States and Canada and the European Union because of the degree of interdependence with our economy the number of joint ventures because of the English language I think there's an opportunity and because of the confidence that we have in each other Irish and Americans there's an opportunity to build this relationship up and we should do it and I hope our ambassadors in both capitals your successor my successors in the State Department are thinking along these lines so those are my thoughts sorry to go on a bit longer than I wanted but I'm anxious to get to your questions thank you very much Nick there's plenty of food for thought there obviously you've covered a vast range of issues and concerns in the relationship transatlantic relationship China Russia obviously the pandemic and the they are inability the general inability to work together but that's obviously the questions are coming in but just before we get to to these some of these questions and I think you you mentioned John Bolton there and his fear even his fears of the future in terms of America and maybe a second Trump term and American adherence to some of the global institutions I mean is there I mean obviously he's the president has decided to pull out of WHO you know and then Bolton I think specifically referenced NATO but I mean but is there also a threat to somewhere like the United Nations and other key global or international organizations to which US adherence could be in doubt in a second term Trump administration I'd be surprised I mean I'd be if President Trump is given a second-term ambassador I'd be surprised if he tried to have the United States withdraw from the UN all together after all we are the host nation it's in the city where he lived most of his adult life he's been proud of that and you know I would say something else there's also American public opinion in Congress that has to factor in if President Trump is given a second term which I sincerely hope he will not I hope that Joe Biden will be our president if but if Trump's reelected you do have Congress now the president as you know has great powers and foreign affairs under our Constitution but Congress can block Congress has the power of the purse it has to appropriate all funds and it's interesting to see that there is actually great divergence between President Trump and senior members of the Republican Party in Congress on a number of foreign policy issues number one on Russia Trump has been infamously buddies with Vladimir Putin has never criticized the Russian government that's not the attitude of senior Republicans who are very anti Russian number two is NATO NATO is very popular in the United States 75% public support I mean you can't get 75% of our public say the sky is blue these days in a divided America but you can get that to say in polls we believe in NATO and so Congress could I think effectively probably block any attempt by President Trump to pull us out of NATO all together there are rising majorities in the United States in favor of climate change and they've been being part of the Paris agreement of doing our bit to mitigate the worst aspects and the American people still support legal immigration not illegal immigration on the southern border but the kind of legal immigration that brought millions of Irish and Italians and others to the United States and people from all over the world and so in that eventuality that there's a second Trump term I think there'll be battles between Congress and the president if he tries to do these extreme measures that would essentially change the character of how America relates to the rest of the world yeah and Nick I mean obviously it's good to hear that there's such a widespread appreciation of NATO you mentioned 75% which is unusual in current circumstances so that's and of course America is a member of NATO but what is the perception though of the European Union and in my time in the United States you know there was a general challenge in conveying a sense of the entity of the European Union yes of course the United States that maintain key bilateral relationships with the member the key member states of the European Union and but it was always a bit of a struggle I think to have a cut to convey a wider sense of we obviously worked very actively to do so and are the European Union in the United States does this continuously but it's a constant struggle to create an appreciation of the European Union as an entity and other as the kind of phenomenon that is I suppose and and what can we do basically to to enhance that appreciation of what the European Union is all about yeah I think you're exactly right Ambassador most Americans obviously understand what the European Union is but probably don't know much about it most most press attention in this country tends to focus on individual European countries on Ireland the UK Germany France etc not so much in the EU but for those people who are who populate our governments from the State Department to the Treasury Department to the White House to Congress there's a keen recognition of what it is when I was in the State Department as under Secretary of State looking at our global diplomacy I would think our number one partner globally was probably the European Union on issue after issue I named them before human rights the rule of law climate change global trade we've not always you know we're competitive on trade between the US and EU but the but that competition is far outweighed by the totality of what we do together so what should we do to correct that public information on the part of the United States government as well as European Union governments to and I'm sure you did your your part in this when your Ambassador traveling around the United States talked to the American public about how important it is that that we coalesce I think it does make sense to most Americans as I'm sure it does to most Irish that we've entered a time in global history where no country can live in an island itself and just try to forget the rest of the world that's in essence the Trump policy build walls dig moats pull up the draw bridges around the you know around the country it simply doesn't work in an age of climate change and cyber aggression and a globally interconnected world and that's the message that I think our younger generation gets that by the way I teach so I'm with a lot of millennials in the classroom they get that they understand the degree of interdependence we just need to reach the entire population good I just take a few questions here if we may nick and so two part question from Sonya Highland who's our political director in the Department of Foreign Affairs in Dublin here the first part is in the event of a Biden administration what are likely to be the key priorities of that administration and foreign in the foreign policy sphere and secondly as Ireland prepares to join the earth's Security Council of which we will be a member starting in January 2021 what are the areas that we can engage on to maximize our impact and influence as a member of the council for the two year term beginning in January 2021 thank you very much on the first question I think there's stark differences between President Trump and Joe Biden Joe Biden has been clear from the first day of his campaign but clear throughout his political career he believes that NATO is central to the United States of central importance he believes in the European Union obviously and the US-EU relationship and he's been very critical of President Trump's inattention to the transatlantic relation the deterioration of those relations the last time Vice President Biden went to the Munich Security Conference was not this past February but February before February 2019 he gave a speech on the floor and it was all about the fact that the United States and Europe have common interests and common values and that we have to work together and he said something at the end I'll never forget he said you know those Americans who believe in the US-EU relationship in a NATO will be back and I'm very much hopeful that that he will be back in power in the White House on January 21st of 2021 so I think in a Biden presidency you'll see a president who is sophisticated about global affairs who has vast experience who's respectful of our allies who won't make insulting comments incessantly about the chancellor of Germany the prime minister of Canada the former prime minister prime minister may of the United Kingdom I've not heard a single word of criticism about our Irish leaders by Donald Trump because he probably knows how important Ireland is in elections in the United States but you'll have a you'll have a president of the United States and Joe Biden who will be the kind of president who will want to work closely with Europe and that'll be a major change from President Trump in terms of the UN Security Council agenda over the next two years I think it's very good that Ireland's going to be on the council among the 15 certainly I think trying to bind the world together on climate change and accelerate our ability to work together to me that's one of the major priorities secondly the UN Secretary General just announced on Friday looming famine in Congo in northeast Nigeria in South Sudan and in Yemen so dealing with the crisis spots in the Middle East in Africa possible food shortages I think a major issue for the council the UN Security Council going forward the next two years is is this issue of a pandemic ambassador what we talked about at the very beginning how do we how do we strengthen the World Health Organization how does the World Health Organization reform itself because it did not perform perfectly in January and February in the early months how do we make sure that these UN agencies that are so important the World Health Organization the UN Human Rights Council which is deeply flawed in my judgment the UN High Commissioner of Refugees at a time when there are 69 million refugees and internally displaced people I think strengthening the UN system is going to is it in all of our interests it's the work that all of us have to do and of course conflict prevention can the UN Security Council speak with one one boys probably not given divisions between China and Russia on the one hand the UK France and the US on the other among the five permanent members but certainly Ireland has so much credibility in the world because you've been so active in supportive UN peacekeeping missions you've been one of the you know key countries in Europe supporting the UN across the board I think that's a special voice and can we can we have those five permanent members come together on big issues probably not on issues of war and peace but on some of these other issues I think it's possible okay so just a question here from Adrian Pam the Dutch ambassador here in Dublin and it's really focused on trade relations between I suppose the UK and the US and indeed between the EU and US and you mentioned there earlier on I mean when I was in the United States one of the reasons we had an opportunity to promote the EU at that time was because we had t-tip and prospect this was back in 2013 and it was the most wonderful thing to well around the United States and say this is the agenda and you know people could relate to that in a very very particular way well obviously t-tip and never quite materialized or hasn't materialized yet but just in terms of an EU US relationship trading relationship and or an EU or UK US relationship I suppose and what are the red lines for the United States in terms of such relationships between either the UK and the United States or the EU and the United States in terms of future trade agreements or is there indeed the prospect of such agreements whether with the UK or with the EU between the United States and in the future you know I think this is entirely uncertain and a difficult issue to forecast because trade has become a highly contested issue in our country inside the republican party inside the democratic party and and between them the one bright spot here is that we were able to President Trump was able to renegotiate with Canada and Mexico the old NAFTA it's not called the USMC agreement US Mexico Canada agreement it was updated and modernized which is frankly needed to do from its origins in 1993 and 1994 the big issue was the democrats and republicans were able to come together it was one of the few major issues where the Nancy Pelosi majority the majority led by the Speaker of the House and President Trump were able to work together because the democrats wanted to build into the agreement environmental standards greater environmental standards deeper and labor standards and they were able to do that and so if there's any way forward is perhaps to look at those negotiations look at the final agreement among the three North American countries and say could we possibly do this with other parts of the world of course President Trump if he's re-elected is very decidedly I would say in his case passionately opposed to big multilateral trade agreements he he has said and he ran on this he's running on this again that these are disadvantageous the United States he prefers bilateral trade agreements I simply don't know what a Biden administration would want to do I I wouldn't want to try to speculate it would be unfair to to Vice President Biden to do that but it's going to be highly contested most of the talk the United States in the last few years is the regret that many of us have that the Trans-Pacific partnership did not go forward that was the big power move by the democratic countries of the Pacific against China to force China to trade fairly and we gave it all up I would say this what if the European Union and the United States and Japan that's more than 60 percent of global GDP came together and at least tried to coalesce below the level of a treaty to force the Chinese to try to push the Chinese I should say to adhere to their WTO commitments I think that the European Union and the United States have a quite similar problem with China China that won't adhere to the rules and we have leverage if we work together but a big agreement between the U.S. and the United States a free trade agreement the Europeans publics did not want that in the Obama Biden years as you'll remember I think it's just unpredictable right now to know what the market would bear in Europe and what the market would bear in the United States it's the issue that I think is most difficult to read here in the United States as we go forward okay and so just a question from Blair Horn who's an IAA member he says what do you think our Putin's long-term aims is a spirit of influence over ex-Soviet states or does he have territorial ambitions on the western Russian border I think that Putin well first of all he's smart he's agile he's very experienced the most experienced leader of a major country in the world is Vladimir Putin any idea that he could try to re-conquer Estonia Latvia Lithuania the three Baltic states that were forcibly incorporated into the Soviet Union in 1940 I don't think he'll go in that direction because he understands how much more powerful NATO is collectively and certainly the U.S. is over Russian militarily so what does he do he does he operates from the KGB playbook which would you would expect from someone who is in the KGB he uses cyber aggression he uses intelligence service to murder or try to murder the domestic opponents of the Russian Federation look at Navalny who nearly died from that vicious attack he then of course has twice used force against Georgia 2008 Ukraine 2014 against countries not in the NATO alliance so I think that Putin is very very determined to make sure that countries that lie close to his border are not a military threat Belarus Ukraine Georgia certainly would never want to see a fully democratic anti-russian regime in Armenia or Azerbaijan if you think south of the Russian Federation and the caucuses and west of the Russian Federation in Moldova Ukraine Belarus there's a standoff when it comes to Poland in the Baltic states and fortunately NATO has troops there so I think that we can contain Russian power there but NATO is not going to go to war to protect countries that are not members and those are the countries that are in Russia's gun sites right now okay just maybe switch back to China if we may from Russia to China so question here from Bill Emerson who's a former editor of The Economist now living in Dublin I think he says we see that in the U.S. there is a bipartisan consensus on being tough on China and you mentioned that but being tough he says it's not a strategy what do you think a Biden administration China strategy would likely consist of on trade security technology decoupling Hong Kong Taiwan etc etc etc so I suppose Biden on China Bill was a great editor of The Economist and a friend of mine pleasure I wish I could see him on a zoom call Bill let's be in touch the one thing you know I am ambassador as you may know one of the many advisors to Vice President Biden so the last thing I want to do here I'm not I don't want to speak for him and I don't want to predict what he might do because that just wouldn't be fair to him so I'll just speak about my own view but I think the major challenge that the United States and the EU and Japan and Australia are having these days is how do we balance two things with China we know that we have to compete peacefully but compete economically in our case compete for military positioning compete ideologically and there's no question that most of the energy right now I would say even in Europe but certainly in the United States and Australia and India and Japan is towards competition on the other hand we have to cooperate with China on certain issues we should be cooperating on the pandemic we have to cooperate on a global economic resurgence to leave the recession behind and we certainly have to cooperate on climate change where the US and China China and the US in that order are the one and two carbon emitters leading carbon emitters in the world we've had trouble achieving that balance in the last couple of years the extreme views in the Republican party want to decouple the US economy the global western democratic economy from China which I think is undesirable and impossible to achieve and potentially catastrophic for the entire world people on the right far right even talk about regime change in Beijing as if that's something that the United States or Europe has the possibility of achieving I think that's dangerous I don't like what the Chinese are doing in Hong Kong or in Xinjiang province and we ought to be very clear about our all of us in the EU and the US about our displeasure but we have to live with China so achieving that balance between competition and cooperation I think that's the single most difficult thing for the EU the US Japan India Australia the countries that have major stakes here and that often disagree with the Chinese leadership so I think struggling with that and trying to regain some degree of self-confidence in the United that we Americans have in our own global role I think Donald Trump has harmed our self-confidence that to me is probably step one thank you Bill and just just to follow up on that if I mean it can be obviously the European Union at the moment is and it's it's it's a relationship with China is very sensitive issue for individual member states can the European Union have a straddle the United States is aware and China kind of have a kind of a a position which is obviously mindful of the United States but nonetheless independent of the United States and still kind of you know with with that level of kind of concern and skepticism towards towards China it's a really good question it's a question that really only Europeans can answer I simply can I certainly don't want to be disrespectful and dictate what Europe should do obviously but I will say this I as I perceive the argument on your side of the Atlantic as I read the economist and look at the debate in in Brussels you're divided on this issue 5g is divided the European Union certainly the degree to which the EU should be speaking out more strongly than it did this past summer on Hong Kong in the weekers that's an issue and as a friend of Europe and as someone who wants to strengthen the transatlantic relationship my advice if you're asking for it is obviously none of us would want to end our relationship with China we all have all of us have pivotal economic ties look at Germany look at the United States for instance Italy and yet we've got to be united on the issues that count human rights certainly not permitting the Chinese intelligence services to be reading all of our mail and our phone calls in the future that's the high that's that's part of the 5g challenge with huawei I think we ought to try to achieve Western positions us EU positions as much as possible my sense ambassadors are just looking at the debate in Europe is that it's gotten more complicated and perhaps Europe is more deeply divided now because these are really these are very tough issues my sense in Germany is that the the the debate is changing quickly in favor of those who believe that Germany needs to be more tough-minded on the case on the issue of China so the idea that Europe could kind of straddle between these two economic and political and military behemoths China and the United States I'm not sure that's realistic because as I look at most of these issues we're going to be a lot stronger and better off if we try to align ourselves the U.S. and EU rather than have the EU straddle between the U.S. and China just a question here from Alan Jukes who's our former former Prime Minister our former leader of the Alpine again party and former Director General of the IIEA my predecessor one of my predecessors here and we're back to the Biden campaign again and in addition to your good self we're very mindful of the fact that his chief of staff is also Irish the staff campaign leader and so President Biden if he's elected as president obviously has has very very strong connections with here but in any event he said will the Biden Alan Jukes wants to know will the Biden campaign feature any of the concerns you have expressed about Trump's unilateralism very definitely if you look at Joe Biden's website but just look at his speeches and what he's been saying consistently for the last year and a half since he's been running Vice President Biden has has you know accused President Trump of weakening our country of disavowing our friendships of being disrespectful to allies such as Chancellor Merkel of not being engaged on issues like climate change so for instance Vice President Biden has said if he's elected he will return the United States to the Paris climate change agreement he has said he will return the United States to the World Health Organization he's cast doubt and severely criticized President Trump's decision just a month ago to withdraw 12,500 American troops from Germany why did he do that President Trump simply because of his personal animosity which is bizarre to say the least with Chancellor Merkel and which is entirely one-sided it's President Trump's problem so I think that there is a there are there are great great differences of attitude of philosophy of experience between Vice President Biden and President Trump Vice President Biden has said time and again that our alliances and coalitions make the United States stronger and that he's dedicated to them and that's the US-EU relationship that's NATO and so you'll you'll look at an American president who is much more in line with the majority of the American people Joe Biden on foreign policy and with a majority of both parties in Congress on most of these issues and the American tradition I think Donald Trump is the great outlier in the last 75-80 years of American history I don't think we hope if he is defeated on November 3rd we won't see his brand of diplomacy repeated anytime soon okay maybe just a question in addition to your good self of course who as an advisor to the the Biden campaign who else among those that we might know of are around the president and the campaign giving input into the foreign policy agenda on the issues that we're talking about the key issues that we're talking about here today I'd say in addition to your good self well I'm just one of hundreds of people actually there are hundreds of there are lots and lots of people supporting Joe Biden from current and former members of Congress to former secretaries of state like John Kerry whose Secretary Kerry has been so active in support of Vice President Biden he has great great support across the Democratic Party and it is interesting to see you know for most of my career ambassador I was I was a civil servant foreign service officer so we were we were not allowed to be political we were non-partisan I serve Republican and Democratic administrations but it's interesting to see in a party that has been famously divided for the last 30 or 40 years the Democratic Party in election after election we're seeing a lot of unity in the Democratic Party all of the people who ran against Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Pete Buttigieg Amy Klobuchar are supporting him vociferously of course Kamala Harris is the vice presidential nominee and that's a very powerful ticket so I do think that there's an appreciation here in the United States that we've lost our way that our country's in big trouble that we're not being the kind of global partner we should be and that we're in big trouble at home and we have a pandemic crisis here we have the worst record of any major country and infections and death we're acutely acutely aware of that here we have the economic crisis greatest crisis since 1933 we have the racial crisis which for us is is the existential issue in American history the most important issue in our history has been has been slavery has been the denial of racial justice until this day to the african-american community you saw this powerful powerful set of people set of demonstrations almost all peaceful some violence but mostly peaceful this summer and the president has divided us on race and he's effectively become a candidate in white supremacy if you look at his public statements just over the last couple of weeks and so you look at a country and add to that a leadership crisis we're deeply divided we're in search of a leader my sense is that vice president Biden will supply that leadership he's a unifying figure and um and if we have four more years of Donald Trump I really shudder to think as a citizen what's going to become of us now inside the country as a as a community but also in terms of our foreign and defense policy okay thank you just a questionnaire from Fiona Broderick who's a Department of Foreign Affairs Deputy Director of U.S. Relations and she wants to know and this is coming back I suppose to your point about Ireland being a connecting state between their bridge as some people might like to describe it but she wants to know how can Ireland most effectively play a role on building transatlantic relations what can we do as a member of the EU and our own bilateral relations with the United States to to develop the relationship well I think it's a matter I mean there is already there's already trust between Dublin and Washington for historical reasons we've never had a crisis with Ireland and so I think to build on that kind of trust let me explain what I meant by that ambassador it's a very good question when I was under Secretary of State I used to call nearly every morning or he would call me John Sores who was then the political director in the British Foreign Office later he became chief of MI5 and as a British diplomat John I could reason I could trust he could help us understand Brussels specifically the European Union and then translate the EU back to us EU views in a way that was extraordinarily helpful it's not as if we didn't have a direct relationship of course we did but Britain played that kind of middle connecting role which was important for us the United States feels more comfortable in NATO because we're a member of NATO a leading member of NATO we're not part of the EU system we are sometimes competitive with the EU sometimes a partner and so I think I think the United States needs that kind of partner we don't have that kind of relationship with Germany yet certainly not in the Trump administration with his personal antipathy towards which is which is a terrible thing with Chancellor Merkel and there is trust in Ireland and so I think Ireland is a bridge of trying to help the Americans understand the perspective of Brussels help Brussels understand the perspective of the United States if I were in government today I would certainly think on the American side we'd want that kind of relationship and there are very few countries in the world where I say that there's clear you know unaltered unadultered trust we have it with Australia we have it with Canada we have it with the UK I think we have it with Ireland it's different because we don't have the military relationship that we have with the others but we have such a deep economic relationship and you know you mentioned the number of Irish Americans in the Biden campaign there are a lot of Americans in the Trump administration too as you know and this is a special bond and we should take advantage of it in this relationship and I think Dublin and Washington ought to be working more closely together on this EU issue and on especially because Ireland will be on the Security Council on global issues thank you for saying that just maybe we're just coming to the last round up here and just a few minutes left just to maybe we can turn to the Brexit issue given its topicality it's its critical importance to Europe to Britain and to to Ireland in particular and there's been a lot of concern on the last few days about whether or not the UK was seeking to find a way of modifying the withdrawal agreement specifically the protocol in relation to the border area on the island of Ireland and as you know I mean this was an issue that was supposed to have been addressed comprehensively and agreed and so I mean a U.S. you know to the extent that there is U.S. concern about you know whether I mean within Irish America and within the Biden campaign can Ireland as a work count on a President Biden in upholding the Good Friday Agreement and being supportive of the no-hard border on the island of Ireland. Well Ambassador again I don't want to be in a position of predicting what a President Biden would do in January, February of next year that would be unfair of me I would point to Nancy Pelosi the Speaker of the House of Representatives you will remember in August 2019 just over a year ago she issued a public statement and a letter saying in no uncertain terms that if a hard border was reimposed by the British on the island of Ireland in a way that completely overrode all the good that the Good Friday Agreement did the United States Congress Democratic majority would not ratify a US-UK free trade agreement that was Speaker Pelosi's judgment there is very strong support for Ireland in the United States Congress I come from the capital of Irish America which is Boston and Massachusetts so I feel it deeply here among you know there's Congressman Neil the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee one of the most powerful members of Congress is an Irish-American congressman from Massachusetts and so I'm I think that's an important point for the Irish people to be reassured by that in the Congress of the United States in the House of Representatives very strong support that you not be forced to go back to a time you don't want to go back to before the Good Friday Agreement or the Troubles and that we Americans do not want to contribute to any kind of deterioration of relations among the Protestants and Catholics of Northern Ireland or friction between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and that is about as clear a position as I can see in American politics and so I guess I read last week's events the statements that the Boris Johnson government made is rather theatrical probably trying to seek advantage over the EU and the negotiations I hope that the British understand the depth of feeling here for Ireland in the United States Congress and in the American public in general I hope that's a clear answer to your question that's a great clear answer Nick I appreciate it very much we appreciate it very much I'm sure all our listeners do too so listen we've come to the end and we're right on the button at two o'clock here in Ireland a little bit earlier in in Boston we want to just say thank you to you thank you for your service indeed over such a lengthy spell in the US government and and since then obviously doing what you've been doing but most of all just thank you for being with us today and sharing your insights I mean we obviously hear a lot from the United States but to have it crystallized and to have it articulated the way you've done today I think would be widely appreciated so we hope we can welcome you back in person welcome you home indeed at some time in the lot is in future in the meantime obviously we wish you well and take care of yourself and and we follow events particularly over the next six to eight weeks with particular interest thanks ambassador it's been a pleasure it's been great to be with so many friends from Ireland hopefully next time in Dublin I'd like to do that post post vaccine very good okay thank you very much indeed so good afternoon everybody and thank you very much Nick