 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network We have got nine games in the NBA for tonight and five in the NHL So why not lump them all together and talk about both by bringing on Tom Vecchio to break down his thoughts and snites NBA slate his NHL betting process and say your bets across all of the hockey universe for tonight This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio Check him out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom. Tom. Happy Wednesday to you a Glorious laid-ahead for both these sports. How you doing today? I'm doing good. Yeah talking NHL is is one of my favorite things It's it's arguably my favorite sport to bet Maybe outside of MLB home run props, but I'm ready to go MLB home run props is very specific and a very frustrating market for me So I'm glad that at least someone here is willing to bet those I go K props to the most part I can do money lines, but home run props. They kind of drive me nuts I'm yeah, like there's you know, I've talked about it before I was here at the beginning of last season. It's like if you dig into a header versus pitcher data Badded ball rates hard contact like all these sorts of things like there's an overlap and oh, yeah As long as some of the external factors Whether park factor like a lot of those things as long as you can pile them together like it makes sense, right? And I think for me, it's a part because of the DFS like volume that I play I get further in my stacks don't hit and if I also bet on those guys. It's more frustrating I feel more confident in my ability to pinpoint strikeouts So like if a pitcher flops, it's like at whatever I can I can deal with that but like batters They just drive me nuts whatever reason but luckily I have two and a half months before I have to worry about baseball again So we're talking about some basketball and hockey for today and get Tom's thoughts on both of those for tonight But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We had our first look at the NFL's Divisional round of the playoffs went up yesterday breaking down what my numbers are saying about this round Primarily focusing on Bengals bill some bets in there get that wherever you get your podcast I'm covering the spread and also we did talk to Brandon Gadoula about the American Express may PGA betting perspective All that up on the covering the spread podcast feed and on the fan dual YouTube page on the DFS side The NFL Saturday million is now live on fan dual Put your NFL knowledge to the test and create your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap Then use Fandals live scoring feature You can follow along as you compete for your share of one million dollars in total cash prizes including $200,000 at first place all for just a $5 entry fee January 21st Saturday is coming quickly So head to fandal.com and get your lineups in today Eligibility restrictions apply go to fandal.com or download the fandal app for more details We're gonna start things off on the NBA here because that is more of a straightforward discussion for tonight We talked to Tom about his process for that last week in the NBA a couple of nationally televised games for tonight We've got the Hawks and the Mavericks first followed by the Nuggets and the Wolves both those games on ESPN any bets for you in those games Tom that you like if people are looking to tune into those games Yeah, let's start with Christian wood the now starting center for the Dallas Mavericks over 30 and a half points plus rebounds It's taking a minus 120 This you know last week I was here. We talked. I was talking about you know attacking Atlanta versus via centers I think this is the exact same spot Alana bottom 10 versus centers in both points and rebounds allowed There's also a nice pace-up spot for Dallas or 28th in the league in offense pace Atlanta is sitting at 6th We have a 234 over under it's a two point spread all these things You know looking at wood overall if you just look at the stats this season He's averaging. I think it's 18 and 8 which you know, you're seeing in this line That's 30 and a half is averaging 18 and 8 beating course of the season. He was coming off the bench Now he's been in the starting lineup and since January. He's averaging, you know, basically 20 and 10 So we're getting to that mark and and if you look at his game log back Some of these are big games where he's going for like 25 and 14 where he is not just getting to a double-double I'm just like, you know getting to the edge like he is pushing past it in a big way So it's like all these things we're attacking these weak defenses. He has a new and increased roll high pace High over under close spread really love Christian Wood tonight. I had a slate in DFS last week where I had a Long consideration of Christian Wood. I pivoted Bobby Portis. I think it was at the last second and Portis Did he was like fine met expectations Christian Wood went for like 66 Fandall points or something like that and I'm still Distraught so maybe I can like recoup some of what I would have gotten by betting his his points plus rebounds prop As he said a minus 120 at Fandall sportsbook for that one any other bets across those two games for you The Luca points plus assist is all points plus rebound is also looking good. That's at 40 and a half If I remember correctly That's also looking good. He didn't play in their most recent game. He's listed as probable for tonight I expect him to go his points plus is it is 43 and a half Minus 113. I think that is still good Lana bottom 10 versus point guards when it comes to rebounds allowed Trey young does not rebound at all Luca low volume shooting low scoring his most recent game. It's kind of one of the spots that you know bad game He sits out. He's listed as probable tonight should bounce back very clear spot for him Yeah, 43 and a half the numbers you said minus 113 both ways on that for Luca and the points plus rebounds one For Christian would 30 and a half minus 120 on the over there There are as mentioned those seven other games across the NBA for tonight any other spots where you're seeing some good props You want to bang in for tonight? Yes, so Absolutely number one Julius Randall over 38 and a half points plus rebounds minus 106 He's been awesome as of late for the Knicks and both him and Jalen Brunson for the Knicks are putting up huge points and again It's the same situation where just like it's not just a double-double for him some games that he's having 42 and 15 and 30 and 16 in these huge games and Rough loss for the Knicks in their most recent outing. They sense it over time versus the Raptors on Monday. They lose an overtime Washington is atrocious via centers And I mentioned it last week when it was the Bulls against them and Busevich and all these sorts of things So we're attacking the same teams Dave weak defenses the Knicks need to bounce back They're a very tight playoff race in the east and he and Randall has been awesome for the Knicks. So that's number one There's no props posted for Nuggets wolves. I will say there's injuries on both sides One of the notes I'm looking at for the Nuggets is that Jamal Murray played last night He was listed as questionable going into last night's game He played a full you know 30 some odd minutes very normal, but second night of a back-to-back So this could mean extra usage for Yokech who doesn't need any more usage to begin with But he could be getting extra usage We also see Rudy Gobert on the other side of the wolves listed as questionable So if he is out and go bears a very good defender But it could be a much easier path for Yokech going up against Nasri their backup center and The potential for no Jamal Murray. This is a this could be a triple double spot for Yokech Not that I can't say that on any other slate But specifically this one this could be a very very clear spot for Yokech Is it going to be the points plus rebounds plus assist marker? We were looking first for Yokech given the variety of ways he can put up numbers in that category, right? That and you know realistically his most nights like for him to record a triple double It's only sitting at like plus 150. Yeah, right? It's it's very low like him to record a double double like minus 300 or minus four But like to record a triple double was only like plus 150 a part of me almost wants to take just that okay Because you know him going for Like 18 12 and 10 he won't get to his PRA, but he would get the triple double So I'd rather go for plus 150 then go for like minus 110 Okay, I like that file process there So Yokech the key guy to turn to the two situations Thomas pinpointing Maybe Jamal Murray gets his minutes scale back in the second night of it back to back Completely, yeah, because he is coming back from an injury from last year did not play at all last year Right, so that could be a situation there and then Rudy go bear the other guy to keep an eye on there for potentially keying up a Nikolay Yokech big night as you typically would expect from him. Okay, that's the NBA side of things Let's hit our folks and talk now about the NHL We talked NHL with you last spring So it's been a very long time and it kind of somewhere to the NBA I don't want to assume people listen to that that was a long time ago So I want to go back to baseline process for you What is he starting point for you when you're betting the NHL whether it be? Traditional markets player props, whatever it may be. Where are you starting in that process? So I start for it's essentially the same spot where I start from and I will say I do bet a lot of NHL sides It's probably the sport that I bet the most sides and I also bet a ton of props it all starts from the same point and the Example I use is from the movie Moneyball Okay, it's like we're you know, you want to be focused on getting runs right and how to get runs You get players on base you want to be doing these things. So like when comes the NHL You're betting on teams to win or you're betting on a total. So you're betting on Goals, essentially, how do you get goals? It's like well you get goals by getting shots on goal and how do you get shots on goals that you get shot attempts So the baseline one of the easiest NHL Analytics is called shot attempts, which the term for it is Corsi C O R S I and everything when it comes to NHL Advanced analytics is for and against for is what your team does or what a player does and then against is what they allow So everything starts with essentially shot attempts because if you think of it like a funnel if you have a lot of shot attempts And those are just all shot attempts whether they're blocked whether they're away from the net on the net whatever Those leads to shots on goal shots on goal leads to goals So I look for teams that have or players that have very high shot attempts And for all NHL stats you always want to adjust it for per 60 minutes in 5v5 situations You don't want to be accounting for what they do on the power play because Shocking you know when teams are on the power play they take more shots because they've been advantage and when they're on the penalty kill They give up more shots because they're without a player which is so we want to adjust For 5v5 situations per 60 minutes and I'd like teams that take a lot of shot attempts because those lead to shots on goal which lead to goals So team and that's when I reference NHL When I say like teams that push the pace that are high offensive pressure teams It's teams that are hopefully in the top 10 lead when it comes to shot attempts per 60 minutes This is not to say you can't find value on teams or players in other spots But we always want to be looking at teams that are consistently doing the right thing like teams that have a high pass rate or pass rate over expectation in the nfl so In talking about like power play percentage, you know you're talking about you want to you want it to be an even strength and Focus on that is that because power plays gained is like a fluky kind of stat or Is do better teams induce more power plays because I know nothing about the NHL So I'm actually it's just very basic stuff. It's so it just comes down to the fact that they're gonna be they're gonna be on the ice for 50 51 52 minutes of 5v5 like they're only gonna be getting Three pat 2 3 power plays a game they're only gonna you know get taken to penalty. So You know, you can't be adjusting for like and if the power play ends early because they score 10 seconds in You like we just have to adjust for what they're gonna be doing the most So power plays are fluky like a team can be awesome in a power play and then they go through like, you know Oh for 15 slump and I don't want to be looking at their stats just because they're over 15 So it's just like they're on the ice for 5v5 in most circumstances. That's what we have to look at So you focus everything around trying to find teams that are Possessing the puck getting shots off regardless of the quality of those shots You just want to make sure they are getting us volume basically. Yes, but then if you bring up quality, that's a different Uh, is there a metric for that? Yeah, there's a sublayer to that which is uh called high danger chances Okay, and that comes down to the next metric which would be expected goals, which is Uh, I'm not I know dr. Ed fang is big in the soccer But if you look at expected goals, it's basically the same thing where The shot Location has a different expected goal rate in the nhl and the same thing in soccer where in the nhl It's in the slot between the dots That has a different expected goal percentage compared to a shot from the blue line from a defender So high danger chances are coming from the slot So we can leave the team that not only takes a lot of shot attempts But they're also coming close to the net So then the next layer of what I would look at in terms of process would be Teams that have a differential between their current goals scored And their expected goals scored and if they have a high differential I'm going to say okay, this team is due for positive regression because They're not scoring right now, but they're still doing like they're doing the right the small things correctly They're just not getting the results So that that differential is why essentially target on a lot of nights Right because there's a lot of variance and whether or not the puck goes in you generate a good a good chance You shouldn't be dinged just because it doesn't necessarily go in and stuff like that Do you find that the market does a good job of accounting for that stuff or are there still some inefficiencies there where If you were using good advanced numbers, you can still have a pretty decent edge I think there's I think there's a decent edge in nhl and I think it's simply due to It's like baseball where it's it's fluky It's just like a player is having a massive hard contact rate and all these things are great He's just not getting the results where it's the same in the nhl where these teams go through Just like the ebbs and flows and I'll use the the devils as an example earlier in the season They went on like a 10 game win streak Which is along for the nhl And then they went through a stretch where they lose like 10 out of 12 games And now they're on like another six or seven game win streak where there's just so many ebbs and flows to the nhl That if you get a team that is hot at the right time They're going to be pouring in the goals and a lot of it I hate to say that a lot of it has to do sometimes with the travel schedule Where again, I'll use the devils as an example Let's say they have like a a four game homestand like whatever it is a normal Homestand and then they go to play like away games. They can play at the rangers Which is not an away game for them. They're still sleeping at home at the islanders And then they go to philly. They go to dc. They go to the penguins. That's a five game road trip But it's not like a heavy travel schedule. So they're they're like, they're still pretty You know cool common collect because they're not doing a whole lot, but they compare that to them going to Detroit in minnesota win and pay colorado Dallas and phoenix They're all over the place in those six games and that like how do you vary that sample size compared to when they're at home For two weeks Right for sure and it's same thing as like any other sport travel matters And that kind of stuff matters. So kind of for that is important within the process Now you mentioned You will bet sides in the nhl Are you betting Like team totals too because it sounds like that would correlate perfectly with what you're studying It does so I love team totals my my favorite bets In the nhl they're always going with the over just because especially in today's nhl there's just so much scoring and It's really tough to take it under With you and like it just meshes well with like our general mindset of like, you know, a lot of us come from a dfs background There's an overlap there. So it's kind of pinpointing what you you know best even if like Sure, the over rate for like the overall sample might be, you know under 50% or what it may be Um, but like if you can identify the proper spots, that's that's kind of what matters more Right. So the over I love my one of my favorite bets is called Uh, the 60 minute line or the three-way money line I call regulation, which means the team has to win in 60 minutes So the game can't go to overtime if they win in overtime the winning shootout You do not win so they have to win in regulation The example used tonight is the Bruins through the best team in the nhl. They're minus 178 road favorites Which is that's a pretty heavy line when it comes to the nhl 17 minus 178 is never a spot that i'm willing to go on the 60 minute line. They're minus 111 That's a pretty substantial difference from minus 178 to minus 111 for the best team in the nhl Now it obviously shortens your Threshold for winning and shortens your your sample But if I would have to double check the numbers for this year, but over the past few years It's only about 25 to 28 percent of games go to overtime So that's a spot that i'm willing to go because games generally don't go to overtime And we are getting a good team at I want to say really great odds So that's one more that I like And then I also love the puck line Which is minus Generally minus one and a half You you either have to hope a team blows the team out Or you're hoping for that The fact that the team that's down pulls their goalie and you get that empty net goal, which I gotta say is a thrill That's like bad hits with like under 30 seconds left. That is a that is a thrill That sounds more like stress than thrill. I think we got this a little bit a little bit We might have a better mindset here Words, you know stress thrill Exhilarating whatever one used to describe it that is a an exciting bet because again, if you use these expected goals You know points you're saying this team is going to be scoring goals tonight This team is giving up way too many shot attempts way too many high danger chances They are just the floodgates are to open for them And they're going up against this awesome offensive team like this game could be Six nothing before you know it as we saw on monday with the Bruins against the Flyers Yeah, interesting. Okay. So that is the puck line there. Let's open things up to talk about wednesday night You mentioned the Bruins minus 111 to win in regulation to win that in the first 60 minutes Is that a bet that you're pinpointing for tonight or just using it as an example here? Uh, that's a bet. I absolutely love tonight. I would also be willing to go to the under in this match Against the islanders. It's five and a half um The islanders are an interesting team because they have Arguably one of the top three top four goalies in the league with ilia sorokin Um, they often rely on him to win them games single-handedly because their offense is just bad And then the Bruins on the other side have an elite defense They have a goal tender probably gonna be line is all marked tonight Who could be up there for the Vesna, which is the goalie of the year award They just these two teams play a very similar style where The Bruins don't allow you to take a lot of shot attempts They're never going to be high quality and then the islanders also have a super strong defense And then they're also horrible on offense, which just doesn't go well against create defense So the under and Bruins and reg or as I say regulation Would be the spot that I go. Okay. Any other bets you like across wednesday night? Yeah, the abs and flames over six abs defending Stanley Cup champions Decimated by injuries in the early portion of the season season and now they're getting significantly healthier And that is translated to their goals picking up and and one of the things I look at Is not only their their goals, but I also look at over certain sample sizes So a two-week sample is really I think really important for a team And I think notably it shows it well with colorado. So for the entire season colorado They're scoring 2.15 goals per 60 minutes in 5v5 situations, which is the fifth lowest in the league Not good not good, but over the last two weeks specifically The abs are scoring 3.8 goals per 60 minutes in 5v5 situations, which is the fourth best So from 2.1 to 3.8 is a massive increase because they got healthier No surprise. They have their best players back on the ice. They're starting to score more Combine that with the flames who are also seen an increase in their offense Not because they weren't healthy just because they got off to a slow start. They knew players All these new things So to end the abs still aren't amazing on defense So we have like these two offenses that are trending up and two offense that like to push the pace We should see some score Okay, so that one as you mentioned is six right now the over is minus 118 did want to dig in quickly on the Corsi in recent weeks stat. It's talking to Brandon about some NBA stuff and he found a site where you can like Toggle when a player is active versus when they're inactive in season splits there Is there a way like this might not exist Is there a stat out there or a site out there that you know of where you can see a team's Corsi 4 slash against percentage when a certain player is active versus inactive or is that a Piperine no, there there is you would have to Um, you would almost have to go game by game maybe Yeah, and look at it because you can look at it for line combinations for the game. So the two sites that I use Are natural stat trick natural stat trick and money puck com. Okay, so you can look at like line combos You can look at recent games Um, I don't know if you can I would have to dig in to see if you can get like a full sample size of when the split of the player on and off But there are ways to find that maybe at a more specific level than overall Yeah, okay, interesting. I find that uh, that really fun. Um, so natural stat trick and money puck com are the two sides you mentioned Yeah, yeah, you can look at expected goals Uh money puck scrape because they have and both the sites actually have live live feeds of the games So you can actually see the the the shot attempts like in real time And you can see like what the players are doing so I can have like my my winter baseball savants up where i'm watching You know velocities and it's the same thing and there's a uh, there's also an like an expected win model That is live with live probabilities Okay, are you using that for live betting or not? Yes I I have this up like every night like I had it up last night when I was sweating the Leafs Florida game the Leafs came back in one, but they didn't win in regulation. So there you go. That's all that matters Okay, so uh, we like the avalanche flames over six and minus 118 Bruins islanders under five and a half minus 110 and the Bruins minus 111 to win in Regulation anything else tom before we close up shop for today Yeah, jason robertson of the dallas stars to score goal at plus 128 And you could also go to him over three and a half shots at sitting at minus 118 Elite goal score and this is one of the things that I have to say it is kind of tough can be tough about nhl Where it's something with baseball. It's like it's kind of just like intuitive where it's like He's an elite goal scorer. He's taking three four shots a game and he hasn't scored in like five games right and now he's going up against the Sharks who right now are allowing 3.68 goals per 60 minutes and a 59.9 for coursey against Both of which are in the bottom 10 league of the past two weeks He's on the first forward line He's the first power play and he hasn't scored in a couple games Like this is the spot where it's just like you kind of just got to know a player's role Right Where it's it's same thing with the ml the mlb where it's like This player like Aaron judge hasn't had a an rbi in three games He's batting second or third and Yankees have like a five whatever implied team total Like he's just gonna have an rbi tonight kind of feeling Where it's it's just that kind of sense where the the more you dig into it and the more you are in tune The better idea of where you have you'll have where players and props should be Well, it was also interesting like during judges like home run binge when he was chasing the record There were actually like a couple of days where I actually saw value in his home run prop Which blew my mind I just kind of assumed I would never get that but like comparing Like projections and using like a posse distribution to like see like his odds of a home run I was like, oh That's surprising. This is actually not the worst bet on the plan even though I assumed it would be so When guys are in slumps like that you actually can occasionally find decent value because people are reactive to results Yeah, and I would say like The the NHL can be very specific where if you're not in tune with it You just want to you just want to bet on mcdave to have a goal, which You know, I don't like betting on a player that's minus 110 to have a goal Yeah, especially, you know like him, but he you know have a hat trick any night But if you're in tune with things as you are with any hobby or any sport or anything You'll just be a little bit more familiar with where the value actually lies right for sure Alrighty, well, we'll be talking to tom plenty about the NBA and the NHL throughout the season But also we're talking nfl with tom on friday back with us to do our player prop show on friday That will be a blast tom. I appreciate the time for today. Good luck to you and both the NBA and NHL tonight Looking forward to talking to you once again on friday for some nfl. Yeah, thanks for having me see you then All right, find tom on twitter at dfs underscore tom. I am on twitter at gymsonis We are back once again tomorrow ryan willians will join us to break down all four Divisional round games coming up for this weekend get that by subscribing to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcasts or hitting subscribe on the fan dual youtube page. Good luck to all of you tonight as well We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network