 Hello and welcome to the launch of the International Energy Agency's new NetZero roadmap the 2023 update to our landmark report I'm Jethro Mullen head of the IA's communications team, and I'm joined today by IA executive director Dr. Fatih Birral by our director of sustainability technology and outlooks Laura Kotzi and by our chief technology officer Dr. Timo girl So they're gonna tell you more about what's new in this NetZero roadmap Which I would like to notice free to read explore and download on our website During today's press webinar. Dr. Birral will make some opening remarks Then miss Kotzi and dr. Goll will present the key findings of the report We'll then have time to take some questions from journalists for the journalists taking part in this press webinar We invite you to submit your questions via the Q&A function in the zoom You can do this at any point during the presentation and we'll also take a two-minute break right after the presentation for you to submit your questions With that I'll hand over to dr. To our executive director dr. Birral Many thanks Jethro Greetings to all from the international energy agency headquarters Dear colleagues, dear friends, many of you know the two years ago Exactly may 2021 We made our net zero 2050 report and in a very short period of time It became a benchmark study for governments financial institutions companies citizens civil society and We are very happy with that Many of you know we publish a lot of reports at the idea to provide insights for the decision makers for the citizens But that report we publish in may 2021 was One of the most successful ones lots of lots of thousands of people downloaded it. We were very happy with the result and also with the A platform it provided for a good debate for the people who are sincerely Interested to reach our climate course Now after that report more than two years past and in that last two years many things have happened Including a global energy crisis So we thought To update our report What change in the last two years or so? Are we in a better place or in a worse place? Our hopes are less or more to reach our 1.5 degrees target, which is dictated to us By the nature dictated to us by the scientists who are telling us that this is the only way That we can have a life in the future More or less similar to what we have today So of course in the last two years many things happened first some rather varying things When we look at the what the scientists tell us that the 2023 this may well be the hottest year ever recorded The a global climate continues to change in a frightening speed We have seen white fires. We have seen droughts and floods extreme weather events around the world and not only scientists people in the street Around the world not only in the advanced economies in the emerging countries in Asia Africa are aware That the climate change is a big trouble So, uh, this is one varying trend that we are seeing the climate change is coming and At the same time another varying trend is the when we look at the carbon dioxide emissions They remain stubbornly high Especially the last year 2022 we have seen emissions still being very high But We have a big bit a big but because When we look at the numbers at the IEA we have Numbers very careful as we do always We see that there are legitimate reasons to be hopeful Mainly We are seeing that a new clean energy economy is emerging around the world And this emergence of Clean energy driven by key energy clean energy technologies We see that the the path To 1.5 degrees Target is narrowing on one hand, but the clean energy Clean energy technologies the spectacular increase in the clean energy is keeping the Door still open. So this is definitely something we are very happy to See and we are hopeful In fact, the we see the impact of clean energy day to day on the global energy picture Leave aside the our net zero scenario what needs to be done Our analysis showed that even there is no new climate policies Are put in place by the governments We think they will put new policies in place to save our planet See urgent situation Even no new policies is introduced We see that the with the current policies three fossil fuels coal oil and natural gas May well peak before 2030 within this decade So we think this is a very important development as a result of the Very strong spectacular increase of the clean energy technologies and the changes In the economic structure of key Consumers countries So what needs to be done to reach our Uh 1.5 degrees target My colleagues, uh Laura cozy and etymog will go To the details of those are what are milestones But I could tell you I want to tell you that If we want to reduce Emissions from fossil fuels We have to reduce the use of fossil fuels so simple And our numbers show that if we want to reach the 1.5 degrees target fossil fuels They use need to decline Close to 25 percent between now and 2030 dear colleagues some colleagues do say that it is difficult And what we said it it is not difficult. It is very very difficult It is a Herculean task We are well aware aware of that we are aware of that perhaps For more than many people are aware because we look at the numbers, but This is not dictated by the IEA This is dictated by the nature and this is dictated by the station that our plant is in If we want to reach the 1.5 We have to reduce the use of fossil fuels, but if We really don't have a sincere interest To reach our climate targets. So this is another story altogether Now coming back to our uh, or at least my Remarks in the beginning why I am hopeful When I compare where we were two years ago When we published The first net zero 2050 study and today I am really a More hopeful Because of the numbers I can tell you that two at least two major Clean energy technologies are going very strongly. One of them is solar energy As IEA has said Recently solar became The king of electricity markets The old king coal Is over And now solar is the new king not only for climate reasons mainly because it is cheap the cost is coming down Big growth of solar and other renewables Wind and others The second growth Comes from the transportation sector Electric cars two years ago Only two years ago one out of 25 cars sold in the world was electric So one out of 25 two years ago and this year According to our numbers it is one out of five cars sold is electric and it is growing in all key markets so the growth coming from uh, uh, uh, solar Electric cars other energy technologies are very very Impressive and we think they played an extremely important role to bring the need For fossil fuels in the next years to come Another aggregate Indicator and for me it is very impressive In the last two years Since we made the original net serial report Global clean energy investments In two years increased by 40 percent And they reach today Global clean energy investments to 1.8 trillion u.s. Dollars against An investment for fossil fuels One trillion u.s. Dollars so today the entire budget Energy investments for all the energy sources 2.8 trillion u.s. Dollars 1.8 for clean energy And one trillion for fossil fuels And the increase in the last two years of 40 percent of clean energy investment is very impressive Driven by the inflation reduction act from united states from europe from china and uh, india and as well very impressive But again to reach the net zero 2050 1.8 trillion u.s. Dollars clean energy investment Needs to reach to 4.5 trillion by 2030 so today 1.8 And needs to be 4.5 trillion in 2030 if we want to reach Our net zero goals Globally, so this is a total order once again. We know this is a herculean task, but again This is not dictated by the ie ie is a translator of what is dictated by nature And for the by the scientist around the world So dear colleagues, I would like to finish My remarks with one Challenge I see a big challenge In front of us. So there are many many challenges numerous challenges And the technology and the economic side and the political side But if I have to pick up out of these thousands of challenges Which is critical For me it is the following it is the geopolitical fragmentation Among the countries around the world This is rather Varying we are at a time In terms of the climate crisis where we need to bring All the countries together Because climate change does affect all the countries all the citizens of all the governments But I see that the unfortunately at this very time geopolitical tensions Among the countries are rather serious And it is the reason my appeal To the governments That is Climate change does not isolate any country Any continent any geography We should be able to Isolate geopolitical questions among the countries and try to have an internship collaboration For the common challenge of the humanity our report Provides a route For the world a route for the world to reach net zero And of course each country Will have its own Route to reach net zero targets But dear colleagues There is no route to net zero globally without having a fair and equitable international collaboration Among the countries in this world So I thank you very much for Joining us today I would now like to pass the floor my colleagues Lara Kozi And Timur Gul But also I wanted to thank them And their teams and all the colleagues in the IEA because a huge work undertaking to bring millions of numbers and analysis together All the peer reviewers Around the work peer reviewing our report who not only spent a lot of time Efforts, but also who put their hearts in this very important work With this I would like to now turn to our director Lara Kozi Thank you very much. Dr. Biral. It's my pleasure to now Take you through some of the key findings of our new updated analysis. Maybe Let me start by reiterating some Principles of design of this report that are exactly the same as the one we did two years ago Dr. Biral mentioned them Already, first of all, what we are doing here and trying to do with this report is translating What reaching the global climate targets of 1.5 degrees means for the energy sector We are doing so with a global pathway is one pathway every country will have their own specific pathways dictated by their own Circumstances, but we are very much taking into consideration equity considerations We have had the pleasure to accompany a number of countries over the past two years in their own Doing their own net zero roadmaps And what we have seen is very clearly that if a country has an energy access problem That energy access problems will have to be solved in the route to reaching net zero So this is what we are doing in our global roadmap every country in the world that has an access problem We reach their full access in the route to net zero and always in the spirit of equity Advanced economies will take the lead in accelerating further and fastest Their energy transition getting to net zero earlier to leave space to Emerging countries and developing economies what we have been doing Over the past several months that we have been working on this update our Large team, which I think in this opportunity as well Is to go through really thousands of data policies on technologies on investment trends on country by country trends and what we find is First of all, not a good news. What we have been comparing is our milestones in the 2021 report We are seeing over the past year very high level of CO2 emissions clearly Not on track to the type of decline peak and declining We need to see to be on track with 1.5. We have been seeing investments in for example coal fire power plants and other fossil fuels Also, this not on track with our original milestones in the net zero roadmap. However Is not all bad news. We are seeing tremendous growth in few key clean energy technologies Here what you're seeing on the chart now is the growth in electric car sales and solar PV capacity additions. What you see there is simply spectacular growth But what matters the most is that the growth rate that we have been Witnessing and we are witnessing as we speak now on those two key clean energy technologies Is exactly in line with what we were expecting and hoping to see Two years ago when we did the milestones so This type of acceleration that we are witnessing really picking up over the past two years Is leading for the first time Us to say that even without any additional climate policies This decade we will see a peak in demand for fossil fuels This for emission translates in something critical to reach Net zero by 2050 1.5 which is seeing a peak in emissions by 2025 and then see decline in emissions So we are nearly there with the first part of this statement So we are going to be seeing a peak in emission by 2025 But we need a much faster acceleration afterwards in the decline in emission to 2030 Now our updated analysis shows how to reach that especially in the critical decade to 2030 and what you see here I think is a very important finding This finding tells us that We have and we know all the technologies that are needed to cut and slash emissions To be on track with 1.5 to bring back on track the world to 1.5 This decade you see there is renewables is efficiency the electrification is things that we know how to do So this is not about inventing something new is about making sure that everyone Uses and accelerates the deployment of those technologies So going into more detail, what do we need to do? We need to decarbonize the electricity sector. How do we do it? First and foremost with renewables So it doesn't come here as a surprise. We have seen the spectacular growth of solar We will need to triple from now to 2030 renewable installed capacity to really decarbonize very fast our electricity sector the good news in terms of feasibility is if you look at Plans for advanced economies and for china. We are 85 percent there or where we will need to be So it's about expanding these big renewables growth to other countries. Of course Countries may use other technologies and renewables. We are Seeing at least 30 countries in our net zero report that are relying on nuclear for example And this clearly means That they can use this technology to decarbonize now next fundamental pillar is doubling The rate of energy intensity was that what does that mean? So this is one of the cases in which every country will reach this milestone in a different way If you are a country in sub-saharan africa where you have a large part of your population not having access to clean cooking Then the first priority will be switching away from biomass, which is very inefficient, which is polluting to more modern forms Be it lpg be it electricity and this is the way the country will achieve this critical target If you are a middle-income country most likely your fastest growing part of the energy demand is in air conditioning So what you will need to do to achieve this target is actually making sure that your air conditioners Are as efficient as possible And if you are in advanced economies, then you need to push ahead with electrification. So here It would be selling electric vehicles that are around 20 percent of sales this year to nearly 65 percent Again in terms of feasibility. We are seeing some of the larger markets without additional policies Already looking at around 60 percent of these shares The last pillar that we are really seeing needed for 2030 is Meat and emissions reduction from fossil fuel operations. I will not go into detail here. We have been releasing parts of these Critical parts of these reports and analysis over the past several months and we'll have a major installment just Before cop, but I want to say just a word about the importance of meat and emission reductions With co2 abatement alone It's very likely that we will go above the 1.5 degree target So what we need to do is really to put a lid on the increase In temperature and this we can only do with very potent greenhouse gases such as methane. So If we were not able to do so Basically reaching the same 1.5 targets would mean not achieving global in at zero by 2050 But even earlier So we would really need to push ahead on abating methane to leave more space For the world to continue on their co2 abatement route So how do we achieve these? Challenging goals to 2030 the key things we need is money Dr. Biral mentioned it at the beginning today. We are counting 1.8 Trillion dollars going into clean energy investments vis-a-vis 1 trillion for fossil fuel Over the past two years since they will release the report this number has grown 40 percent How much does this number need to go to 2030? We said it earlier is 4.5 trillion In aggregate terms This means that the effort that the world managed to do over the past two years this 40 percent increase If it is continued to 2030 We would reach this amount of money Very clearly the critical important part here is making sure that this clean energy transition is spread Also to emerging countries and developing economies and here there is a role both For advanced economies and multilateral developing banks to contribute to these efforts So if we managed to achieve This acceleration this continued acceleration in clean energy investments What we would see is that basically the world energy needs will be fulfilled by clean energy This means implications for millions of new clean energy jobs It means implications good implications for industrial growth It means implications good implications for cleaner in cities At the same time with the right policies for example eliminating gradually fossil fuel subsidies This would lead to a decline in fossil fuel use and therefore a decline in emissions fully compatible with limiting temperature increase to 1.5 degrees So if this declining demand occurs in this way, then We would reiterate Very important milestones that we said and findings that we said back in 2021 That we would not need any new unabated coal fire power plants Nor investments in new oil and natural gas and I will turn the floor now to dr. Gul On manufacturing and other parts of the analysis Yeah, thank you very much miss scotsy and dr. Birol. I'd like to take it from here by explaining a bit why we are still optimistic about the clean energy transition policy has been mentioned as a key driver Energy trends have been mentioned as a key driver, but another one is the clean energy industry where clean technology manufacturing today Is a huge industrial opportunity that many countries Are starting to take advantage of we already have significant capacity To manufacture key technologies in operation today For solar pv and wind their output is equivalent to around one third of the production we need by 2030 for heat pumps It is around one quarter Solar pv manufacturing capacity in particular is not fully utilized today Manufacturers are currently operating on average At a global average well below the levels that could be considered typical for this type of industry because investments Were made in anticipation of higher demand If operated at a typical level Then today's capacity would already be sufficient to supply two thirds of the solar pv deployment That is needed by 2030 in our pathway and there is more to come. That's the important part That's the important message from the clean energy industry We are collecting industry announcements from around the world and if we assume that all the manufacturing projects that have been announced Around the world proceed on time and in full then global manufacturing capacities for solar pv And electric vehicle batteries would essentially be sufficient For what we need by 2030 even in this updated new Net zero by 2030 scenario 2050 scenario we place higher expectations on these particular two technologies This is significant. It is significant because solar pv and electric vehicles alone Provide around one third of the emission cuts that we need to achieve by the year 2030 in our scenario relative to today Of course not all of these projects will go ahead Many of them have not yet reached the final investment decision and the announced manufacturing capacity for other technologies Is still quite far from the levels that we need to achieve by 2030 wind industry supply chains in particular Are struggling with announced manufacturing projects falling way short of what is required It is an area where policy support is clearly needed But we have seen in the past that manufacturing can be ramped up very quickly The lead times to build such projects are very short one to three years on average So policy can have a very very quick impact here Another important reason to be optimistic on clean energy transitions is progress on technology innovation when we released our net zero by 2050 scenario two years ago We showed that almost half of the co2 emission reductions by 2050 Need to come from technologies that were not yet in the market at the time we made the analysis This is not about some technology miracle at all. This is about The fact that some important technologies like certain battery types were still at demonstration or prototype stage At the IEA we track the readiness of more than 550 clean energy technologies every year Which allows us to reflect very very closely on technology progress and the good news Coming from that work is that in our assessment the up in the updated net zero by 2050 scenario that we're releasing Today the share of emission reductions in 2050 And coming from technologies that are under development today decreased from what was almost half In our last report to 35 percent this year two important underlying drivers here first There has been considerable progress on clean energy innovation including through the commercialization of Several technologies such as sodium ion batteries. There are key examples They were a prototype stage two years ago and they are now making their first market entry The second reason is that the market for clean energy technologies is changing very very quickly And so we have updated our analysis with recent investment trends as well as announcements from technology manufacturer and other stakeholders a key example here is the use of hydrogen in heavy duty vehicles in this year's analysis It's lower in terms of the expectation than two years ago given the pace at which new electric models are being announced by manufacturers And given the changes that we have seen around battery chemistries But there's much more that needs to be done. Of course Innovation is an area that needs policy support to get on track with net zero by 2050 Many technologies that are at demonstration stage today show encouraging results But they need targeted support to get into the market and to scale quickly Now the clean energy transition is not only about massively scaling clean energy technologies clean energy investment Or accelerating innovation. It is also about how to manage the transition How to manage it in terms of the emerging new risks How to manage it in terms of addressing potential key bottlenecks and to manage it in terms of ensuring that the benefits Of the transition can be as widely shared as possible Going through these points one by one the demand for critical minerals is one key area Where security risks absolutely need to be managed total demand for such minerals more than triples in our scenario Relative to today, but there is a looming supply gap despite capital spending for the development of critical minerals increasing last year And exploration spending increasing as well announced mining projects are not yet fully sufficient For the needs of the net zero scenario and there has also been limited progress in diversifying Supplies to address these risks. The iea is actually hosting a summit This this week on critical minerals with ministers and decision makers from all around the world In terms of bottlenecks achieving net zero by 2050 will require large new and smarter infrastructure networks Transmission and distribution grids are a key example here. They need to expand by around 2 million kilometers per year to 2030 in our scenario This is a challenge Because such large grid projects today can take more than a decade Were especially in countries were permitting times along other energy infrastructure projects such as for hydrogen face very similar challenges We will need a big mentality here We need to speed up decision making. We need to think strategic about Repurposing existing infrastructure wherever this is possible for the case of electricity grids The iea will release a special report on grids actually next month Finally and but just as important the point of affordability. This is affordability energy affordability needs to be safeguarded through the transition the outcome can obviously be a positive one by 2030 Total energy expenditures of households in emerging markets and developing economies Decrease by 12 percent in our scenario compared to today But tapping into these benefits for consumers comes at an upfront cost a cleaner and more efficient technologies Typically come at higher upfront costs and so policymakers will need to support households particular those with low income to manage the transition In the concluding slide, I would like to come back to Points that have been made by our executive director and miss scotzi earlier Our net zero scenario offers one pathway to what is a common goal of reaching 1.5 degrees But it's of course not the only one different countries will need to charge their own course Own routes depending on their own circumstances their own capacities Which our scenario takes into account, of course, nonetheless despite these regional differences There are some key milestones that are important for policymakers all around the world wherever they are sitting First governments are rightly focused on energy security today But new long lead time upstream projects will not solve the immediate concerns But risk locking in emissions that could push the world over the 1.5 degrees threshold and they could become A commercial risk as the transition proceeds Second this year 2023 is the year of the global stock take under the paris agreement And so we set out several key ambitions in the report for policymakers around the world to focus on a failure to increase Ambition to 2030 along the lines that we have set out in the report would make meeting the 1.5 degrees goal Extremely challenging and much more expensive requiring the massive deployment of carbon removal technologies that have today Not been proven at scale yet. We must therefore do everything we can to bring emissions down today The paris agreement also requires countries to submit new nationally determined Contributions and DC's in 2025 for the period to 2035 And so the report highlights key milestones for that particular year for each sector and for each technology But they're also key milestones for governments by 2035 to be on track with net zero globally in 2050 Our analysis shows that advanced economies need to have reduced emissions by 80 And emerging markets and developing economies by 60 in aggregate relative to today The goal for 2050 is very clear net zero emissions for the energy sector by 2050 a huge transformation from where we are today With electricity generation reaching 90 from renewables in our pathway wind and solar alone Supplying 70 percent nuclear capacity Doubling from today in the countries that are pursuing this option building on recent policy support The energy system in 2050 in such a pathway is much more electrified than it is today with electricity supplying More than half of total energy consumption And we need to be able to take carbon out of the atmosphere both to reduce remaining emissions and supply A carbon feedstock for synthetic aviation fuels in particular This is a huge challenge. This degree of change is a huge challenge as the executive director highlighted in the beginning We are keenly aware of that But it's also a huge opportunity for the countries the industries and all other stakeholders who wish to support it And we stand ready to help in this endeavor with that. Thank you very much and back to you jethro Thank you very much for the presentation So we now have time to take take some questions from journalists And we invite the journalists in attendance to send your questions through the q&a function of the zoom if you haven't done so already And please do mention your media outlet along with your question Media outlet and name just to make sure we know who the questions are coming from We'll take a two minute break to give you a chance to enter your questions. We'll be right back Hi everyone. Welcome back So we have a lot of questions. We're going to get through as many of them as we can In the time we have we have quite a few questions on the messaging on Fossil fuel investment and the findings there. So we're going to try and Take as many of those as we can in in one go So philip bruce from Energy intel asks can you comment on the change of wording from no new oil and gas resources to No new long lead time oil and gas resources And teresia eric stad from the norwegian business daily asks could you elaborate What you mean by long lead time for gas and oil fields? There's also a question from claudia and tunas from sumama in brazil Saying that brazil because of its low carbon intensity means Intense to keep oil production Even in 2050 And even increase it and what you know, how does this fit into the the global picture? So I think and also just I think ronan cavern are asking about the fact that the previous report was Not received well by some oil and gas producers Did we expect that reaction and and why do we think it was so strong? Anyway, that's already a lot of questions. So let dr. Birrell address this fossil fuel investment question Questions and as you see fit dr. Birrell Thank you very much. There are so many questions around the same topic and first of all I will try to say a few words, but I would very much Like to suggest to colleagues to have a good look at our report There is a good discussion on the investment in fossil fuels and I should also say That the Before the cop 28 this year, which is going to take place in a major Oil producing region. We are coming up with a special report And the oil and gas industry in clean energy transition We are making some analysis and some recommendations to those countries So that they are not quote unprepared from the clean energy transition and at the same time they are part of our fight against climate change as part of the The the energy industry now our first of all, I should say our position in terms of There is no need For investment for the new Coal oil and gas is not changed but I want to make it one thing clear once again This is subject to Big push of clean energy As such reducing the Fossil fuel demand because we needed to bring it down to reach our 1.5 degrees target And if the we are successful to push the clean energy And replace the fossil fuels And the fossil fuel declines in line with what we have Forseen then You don't need New oil and gas fields or coal mines but This doesn't mean that as of tomorrow We don't need any investment for oil and gas We will still need investment for oil and gas because we will use oil and gas even in our scenario 1.5 degree scenario net zero 25th scenario because They are the part of the energy mix, but in a declining manner In a declining manner we will still use them, but much less Then we use now in order to avoid the catastrophic climate change. So therefore there is a need In to put money investment in the existing fields Oil fields gas fields to keep the Production at a certain level that it can meet the declining oil and gas Demand so that we have an orderly transition from fossil fuel dominated energy Work today to a cleaner energy system where we will still Have some oil and gas in the future. So this is our In one word our analysis, but I want to if I may say one more thing And this is important Also for the oil and gas producers as one of the journalists asked how the oil and gas producers will React to this. I don't know. I hope they will read it carefully because there are some important heads up for those companies now Even if there are no New climate clean energy policies imposed set by the governments With the current existing policies and current technology and market trends We see that the oil gas and coal Use globally will peak before 2030 and start to decline Slowly but surely therefore Even in the absence of new policies oil and gas companies Need to think very carefully Because those large scale A fossil fuel investments Not only do pose a risk for our climate but also Given the new demand trend. I try to explain They also pose a business economic risk I stop here Thank you very much. Uh, dr. Beryl. So the next question we have Is about china It comes from su bell ride bandari from radio free asia china Is the world's top emitter and also a leader in renewables and So it's you know a key as a key role on both the the fossil fuel side and on the And the clean energy side And so what is your message to china? In this in this situation Given given the high use of fossil fuels And perhaps we can combine that with a question the message of china and also um A question on cop 28 many government business and civil society leaders are traveling to dubai Uh in december for cop 28 And what is your advice or your message to them based on this report? So messages for China and messages for uh leaders globally So many tough questions And interrelated issues now china is uh based on our Analysis china is today number one In terms of solar Number one in terms of wind electric cars additional new nuclear Capacity hydro power in all clean energy sources And in terms of clean energy investments also china is a leader But the same time coal The fuel which is the most carbon content Is still having a dominant position role in the chinese energy mix When we look at the global picture, we see that there is no room There is no room for Unabated new coal plants if we want to stick to our Uh 1.5 degrees target For the cop 28, uh I think i would uh, there are many suggestions that uh my colleague, uh, mrs cosy Share with all of us what needs to be done in the energy sector and these are the we hope These are recommendations will be Be forming Some uh policy goals agreed by all the countries Doubling the energy efficiency tripling renewable capacity a the 75 percent decrease in methane emissions and decline in fossil fuels Starting with coal and the and the others are Formerly adopted as a global goal in In dubai But one thing I want to perhaps say is that the International Cooperation among the countries this is key And this is in my view the achilles heel Of our fight against climate change. This is the message that I would like to Share Thank you very much dr. Birrell. So the next question Um, uh, well a couple of questions. We'll try to get to so we have a question on What has changed between? The 2021 roadmap that we first published and then this 2023 update Um, so what are the key changes and in particular? Um, perin muter from uh, le monde in france Uh, asks if there's a way to compare the goals in fossil fuel demand and emission reductions by 2030 With the goals that were stated in the 2021 net zero roadmap and then also a question from From the associated press From I'm just looking for that because There are a lot of questions. Um, it came from Sibi arasu from the associated press in india. Um, given a lot of requirements to meet 1.5 degrees Goal is still not in action such as financing That is needed or ambitious clean energy targets Could you comment on the probability of global warming thresholds being breached soon? As it was briefly earlier this year. So I think, uh, um Lara kotzi is going to take these questions over to you, Lara Thank you very much. Jethro. So maybe in Two minutes. What has changed since? 2021 basically A lot of the milestones you will see are very similar But in summary what we are seeing is that there are two sectors in the world one the power sector and the other The car passenger segment that have actually taken off in terms of decarbonization with solar pv and real electric vehicles Um, we haven't seen these type of takeoff of decarbonization coming to other parts of the economy in particularly industry sector in particular buildings and and and so on so We compared to a couple of years ago. We are still clearly seeing an advancement in The progress of decarbonization for a couple of sectors and cup and parts of the world's advanced economies. China are pushing ahead What we are seeing lagging behind is certain technologies ccs for example, uh, and uh decarbonization of certain parts of Other parts of the economy and other parts of the world So the acceleration to 2030 that we mentioned earlier. We really need to bring on board all countries making it widespread and Going beyond the two the two sectors that are really moving fast Now in terms of the 1.5 threshold absolutely true this year We are on average As temperature increase Compared to pre industrial level at 1.2 degrees. What we are trying to do with this scenario. I'll say something a bit technical Is having a pathway that limits Temperature increase to 1.5 similar to what the no low overshoot scenarios the IPCC is having We're doing something. I think also important, which is the following We are asking asking ourselves the question What if countries around the world going to this cop and don't raise ambition to 2030 Could we still make it to uh go back to 1.5 and what we find is actually that we would bridge The 1.5 degree goal within the next decade stay above 1.5 for many Decades and the only hope that you would have to go back to 1.5 is to starting removing CO2 from the atmosphere So I think that from now to december the world has a very simple question to answer is do we want to accelerate On technologies and policies that are in our hands today and raise ambition to 2030 or do we want to wait Decades and hope that we can have deployment at scale of carbon removal technologies to keep 1.5 within reach. Thank you Thank you very much, Laura. Um, and so the next questions, uh concern CC us uh and hydrogen and some of the other emerging Technologies, um, so one question we have there, uh from Um, and I'm just looking for the question, um From henry edwards evans, uh from s and p global commodity insights He asks does the growth in solar evs and electrification generally offset the slow development in cc us and clean hydrogen? um, and then uh, susanna rogers from carbon pulse asks whether the iea's view Uh on the role of carbon capture and storage has changed since the roadmap Was first set out two years ago um, so I think, uh Those are the main questions, uh for uh that may be timore, um our chief energy technology officer could take Over to you timore Yeah, thank you very much. Uh, jethro. These are excellent questions now. Um, I think we've tried to highlight in our presentation at multiple occasions and also The scots in her intervention just now We have seen stunning progress, uh for solar pv electric vehicles in the last couple of years And it allowed us somewhat to rebalance technology expectations to 2030 what we did for this particular report is We did a comprehensive review through all the pro All the progress that has been made all the project announcements that have been made But ultimately there is no such a thing like offsetting you can't offset one technology for the other because of course solar pv electric cars will help as miss codsey mentioned Will help us to decarbonize power generation as well as The passenger transport and other transport areas, but it will not help us With all sectors of the energy industry When it comes to ccs, we will need all technologies. We have not changed our view that it's an important Technology for reaching climate goals, but what we have done is we have scaled back expectations and this is really There is great momentum. We are seeing this. We are observing this big project pipeline that is coming new business models that are emerging We do need ccs certainly in particular applications such as cement and others But momentum is really clearly not enough It is time for this technology to deliver at scale So we have scaled back our expectations to 2030 in particular for ccs And we hope that this is a warning call for the industry to make ccs happen Moving forward, thank you Thank you, timor So, uh, we I think we've covered the lion's share of the questions I don't think we're going to be able to answer every single one of them So, um, we will come back to those of you whose questions we didn't get to In due course of our email, but um The final one last question that we can squeeze in Are the high energy prices we're seeing today the results of climate policies and clean energy And I think, uh, dr. Beirut will maybe take this one Okay, thank you Jethro. Yes, uh, today we have a oil prices Higher than 90 even flirting with a hundred dollars as such Putting a lot of pressure on the economies, especially those in the emerging countries who import Oil And puts inflationary pressures on the and the economies But this has nothing to do with the Clean energy policies. This is A deliberate oil production policies of the oil producers led by two top Oil producing countries and I think it would be unfair To relate this hundred dollar oil price To clean energy and clean energy policies But I can tell you that this hundred dollar oil price Will further Accelerate the clean energy transitions as it will give a boost to Clean energy technologies from an economic perspective as well Such as the the further expansion of electric cars So, uh, since this is the last question, uh, Jethro may also once again thank our director Lara Kozi for directing this Study with a huge team and also our chief technology officer Dr. Timur gul For their great efforts with their big teams To make this study happen and we hope that it provides a basis For a good discussion For the people who really Want to fight with us against climate change. Thank you Thank you very much dr. Birrell. That is all we have time for We've already gone quite a bit over time to squeeze in as many questions as we can um, if any journalists have questions that didn't get answered during the q&a that you'd like to follow up on um Do reach out to us at the press office will also do our best to come back to you on the questions that we've seen Um, uh, so with that, I'd like to say a big thank you to dr. Birrell To muskozzi and to dr. Gull Thank you to the journalists for the great questions And thank you to everyone for following this event online and for your interest in our work A reminder that the full 2023 update of our net zero red roadmap is available For free on our website iea.org so do please take a look um and uh a key area of clean energy transitions as My colleagues have been explaining is um supplies of critical minerals um to make those clean energy technologies Um, and we'd like to invite you to join us to follow the opening session of our critical minerals and clean energy summit Which is taking place on thursday Uh, the opening session will be live streamed uh the same places. Uh, you're seeing this Uh event 10 30 thursday morning central european summertime. Uh, we hope you can join us then That's all for today. Thank you and goodbye