 Think Tech Hawaii. Civil engagement lives here. Welcome to the Asian Review. I'm your host, Bill Sharp. Our show today, The Great Rethink Down Under, and this is all about Australia's evolving relationship, revamp relationship with China. And my guest today is Dr. Mohan Malik, the professor at the Daniel K. Noe Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies. Welcome to the Asian Review. Thank you, Bill. Thanks for having me on the show. I should say welcome back, but it's been a while since you've been here, so it's great to see you again. Well, Australia really seems to be undergoing this soul-searching, we think, about its relationship with China. It wasn't that long ago. Australia seemed to be going, as they say, hell-bent for leather for creating a closer relationship with China. I remember reading things no more than five years ago, these big plans that government was having. This is how we can become more synthesized, and this thing. And now there's a 180-degree, seemingly a 180-degree return going on. So what's caused this, we think? A number of incidents, growing evidence of China's interference in Australia's political system. For example, a number of very prominent politicians have been influenced by Chinese front organizations to support China's interests, whether it is on Taiwan or the South China Sea. Australia is one of a few Western democracies that allows funding for its political parties by non-Australian-formed donors. And that loophole was exploited by some very rich, wealthy Chinese connected with the Chinese Communist Party, United Front Works Department, to finance elections in Australia. So Sam Dastiyari was the most prominent labour politician who got caught in this. And you, Rob, got a good, you know, deal after he retired as a trade minister. He was also the one who facilitated the lease of Darwin Port for 99 years, a commercial lease. And then Bob Kerr, a former minister who sits on the board of Australia-China Relations Institute in Sydney. That's funded by the Chinese businessmen. So that was one, then over China's militarization of the South China Sea and this external tensions between Australia and China over a whole host of issues, free trade agreement, and Australia's growing dependence on China. The trade volume is worth $150 billion, which is enormous, which is huge. And the growing role of Chinese diaspora within Australia, you know, one in 10 Australians speaks Chinese at home, Mandarin is spoken at home in 10 households in Australia. So there's a large scale of, you know, demographic shift also within the Chinese community. In Australia, up until the 90s, most of the Chinese who came to Australia, migrated to Australia, they came from Taiwan, South Asia, Hong Kong, and post Tiananmen massacre in 1989. But those who are coming now, they are quite wealthy, rich, and very well connected with the party and the elite. And Australia also depends very heavily on China for its higher education sector. Most universities would love to have Chinese students. Just like America. Yes. So I guess Australia makes about $25 billion from Chinese, the largest number of Chinese students studying in Australia. Foreign students are from China. I remember the Rio Tinto case. Could you kind of remind our viewers what that was about and how that might have added to this shift in thinking? Yeah. This was a Chinese-Australian, an Australian citizen, a naturalized Australian citizen, stern, who was arrested by the Chinese government and put behind bars for leaking some state secrets in terms of mining. You know, a deal that Rio Tinto had with a Chinese company. And Australia tried to get that citizen of Australia released. But the Chinese government refused to release him. And I think he was released only recently after serving his term. He's back in Australia now. I'm not sure if he's back in Australia, but from what I heard that he's completed his term, I bought to complete his term. And the key point is that Australia failed to persuade, despite its very close economic political ties with China, to have an Australian naturalized citizen from China released. And this was a major setback in terms of corporate relations that Australian companies have had with Chinese. Also, Chinese have invested heavily in Australia's mining sector, especially real-earths and other minerals. Australia is a major exporter of commodities to China. And one reason Australia has escaped recession over the last three decades, Australia has continued to see economic growth. That's mainly because of its close ties with China. Economic trade relationship has been very beneficial for Australia. Australia is one of the few countries that have huge surplus in terms of their trade balance, which China, not many countries have. Trade surplus with China. So economically, it has been very beneficial relationship for Australia. I remember one Australian defense minister saying a few years ago that Australia's defense budget is funded by the Chinese government. What he meant was that this huge trade surplus that Australia enjoys in its trade with China that pays for its defense expenditure. You know, when you were saying that, you know, they held a naturalized, the Chinese government held a naturalized Australian citizen who ethically was Chinese, I think deep in the Chinese mind, this thing about passports and citizenship doesn't matter. If you're born Chinese, you are Chinese forever. Yes. And you know, I see the Chinese government now, they have this plan, I've read about it recently, where they want naturalized U.S. citizens that were born in China to really come back to the motherland to sort of renew that sense of Chinese-ness and kind of de-emphasize their American citizenship and get back to their cultural roots. Yeah. Under Xi Jinping, we have seen a distinct shift in terms of mobilizing overseas Chinese diaspora to contribute to China's rise, to spread China's influence. So we see a number of politicians that have been identified, Chinese Australians, recent migrants, even this is happening in Canada too. A number of recent Chinese were moved into Western societies. They are contesting elections. They're playing a very prominent role. And they have had very strong links in New Zealand too, you know, the case of one member of parliament. I wouldn't get to that. Yeah, I wouldn't get to that. But speaking about members of parliament, now this person who was really promoting Chinese interests in Australia was also a member of parliament, wasn't he? Yes. Is he still in parliament? Yeah, no, he quit. He resigned. Yes, same as theory. He was a Labour politician. And he quit. He took a bribe of $5,000 and also told Huang Xiaomou that if he doesn't, if he uses his iPhone in a certain way, smartphone in a certain way, then intelligence won't pick up their conversation, you know. So he's in the doghouse now. Is there a, how should I say, a plan, a strategy of China to split Australia from America? Yes, I go back to Madam Fuying, who was Tung Shopping's interpreter, and went on to become Ambassador to Australia. Then she went to UK. She was a Chinese Ambassador to Britain. And she is Vice Foreign Minister. She held a rank of Vice Foreign Minister too. When she was Foreign Minister, she was Ambassador to Australia in the early 2000s. There was a big news story. This was based on a leak provided by a Chinese dissident, actually a Chinese diplomat, who defected to Australia. I think it was Changyong Lim. And he revealed that there are at least 1,000 spies in Australia working for China. So there was a big news headline in Australia, Madam Fuying and her 1,000 spies. So, I mean, China has been trying very hard for almost two decades now to win U.S. allies like South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Philippines, Thailand, away from the U.S. And growing economic dependence on China for these countries' growth and prosperity was seen as providing enormous leverage to Chinese government to put pressure on them so that they don't do anything that would undermine China's interests, whether it is over the Taiwan issue or the South China Sea issue or human rights other issues. So China has used its economic clout to pressure both U.S. friends and allies, but also other countries, developing countries, to toe China's line on foreign policy issues. So this is part of that strategy. Has Australia been naive about China? Well, I wouldn't say Australia has been naive, but I mean, this is a debate that has been going on in Australia for a long period of time, actually, for much longer period of time than in many other countries, you know. Hugh White's book, who was a former Defense Department official, used to write defense white papers in the 90s for the Australian government, became head of Sujika Defense Study Center at Austin National University. He came out with a book on the China choice, which said that as China's power grows and America's relative power declines, Australia is confronted with a choice. You know, Australia has historically relied on great and powerful friends to defend itself. Before the Second World War, it was Great Britain. Australia relied on post-World War II, America became Australia's great and powerful friend. So many leaders, thought leaders, I would say, many journalists, you know, academics, started arguing that since China is rising and Australia needs to make sure, unlike in the past, when Australia supported the U.S. in all its conflicts, Australia has always been fighting alongside the U.S. forces, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq. Canada was not there in Iraq, but Australia was. Right, right, right. So many argued, former, you know, prime ministers like Malcolm Fraser, Paul Keating, former Foreign Minister Bob Carr, that we cannot blindly support the U.S. in its conflicts with China, whether over the South China Sea or over Taiwan, because China is now very important for Australia's own growth and prosperity. So we need to be mindful of the fact that as U.S. and China get caught in this great power rivalry, Australia does not suffer any collateral damage from their rivalry. So Australia needs to protect its own interests. But on the other hand, if you look at, you know, the dominant mainstream view is that because of, it's not just about shared interests with China, values also matter. Australia is a Western democracy and it has everything in common. So values... Quite close culturally. Very close culturally. And militarily also, Australia cannot protect its own interests on its own because if Australia does not depend on the U.S. for its security umbrella, then Australians have to spend a great deal more on their defence. Australian defence expenditure has to go up to four to five, even six percent of its GDP. If Australia were to play the role of an independent player in the region and has to protect its own interests without counting on the U.S. But Australian and U.S. militaries are very closely interlinked there. As you see, Australia was very important piece of this pivot to Asia policy launched by President Obama. And Darwin played a very important role in terms of deployment of Marines, 2000 Marines, rotation of Marines in Darwin. So Australia has always played a very important role. And as China becomes a larger player and much more assertive, aggressive, Australia has genuine concerns as to what impact it will have on Australia-U.S. relations. Good. Good. I think this is a really good place to stop here. We talked about, you just mentioned Australia's support of the pivot. And now Australia is involved in the Quad. And so when we come back after a one-minute break, we want to pick it up there. You're watching Asia in Review. I'm your host, Bill Sharp. My guest today is Dr. Mohamadik of the Daniel K. Inouye Asia Pacific Centre for Security Studies. We're talking about the great rethink that Australia is undergoing vis-a-vis its relationship with China. So we have a lot yet to cover. And don't go away and we'll be back in one minute. Hello and welcome to Out of the Comfort Zone. I am your villainous host, RB Kelly. Today we are playing two truths and a lie. And I will tell you two truths and you will tell me which one is the lie. Truth number one, this is a real mustache. Truth number two, I want you to watch my show on Tuesdays at 1 p.m. So tune in and let me know which is the truth and which is the lie. I'm RB Kelly without of the comfort zone and show up next Tuesday to see my mustache live. Hello, my name is Stephanie Mock and I'm one of three hosts of Think Tech Hawaii's Hawaii Food and Farmer series. Our other hosts are Matt Johnson and Pamai Weigert. And we talked to those who are in the fields and behind the scenes of our local food system. We talked to farmers, chefs, restaurateurs and more to learn more about what goes into sustainable agriculture here in Hawaii. We are on a Thursdays at 4 p.m. And we hope we'll see you next time. Welcome back to Asian Review. I'm your host, Bill Sharp. My guest today is Dr. Mohan Malik of the Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies. We're talking about the great rethink that Australia is undergoing vis-a-vis relationship with China. Really, really interesting. Just before the break, we, our guest mentioned that Australia has supported the US pivot to Asia during the Obama administration. Well, as we know, that's kind of fallen by the wayside. But our new strategy is the Quad. And Australia is definitely a supporter of that. So let's pick it up from there. So this Quad group of nations that includes Japan, US, Australia and India came into being for the first time in 2007. And it was just banded in 2008, almost after one year, when Labour Party won the elections in Australia. It was set up under John Harvard when he was Prime Minister of Australia Conservative Coalition Government in Australia. So Kevin Rutt became Australia's Prime Minister. And he is a well known China expert too. He made it clear that he had no intent to contain China. And Quad was seen. It was proposed by Shinzo Abe when he became Prime Minister for a very short period of time. And India, Australia, Japan and US held their first meeting. But within 12 months it was disbanded by Australia, by Australia opting out of this grouping of nations, because it was something that China objected to. China saw it as contained China effort led by the US and Japan. So Australia opted out. But recently it has been deselected. Last year, India was quite reluctant to sign on to this. Prime Minister Abe came into power. Prime Minister Abe had been pushing for this. Many would argue that if the Quad had not been disbanded in 2008, we may not have seen the militarization of the South China Sea. If it had not been disbanded, China would not have acted that aggressively. It would have acted as a constraint on China's expansion, territorial expansion and assertive behavior. Because the Quad was disbanded, there was no check, there was no multilateral effort to countervail China. China had a fee pass over the years. And now Quad 2.0, as I call it, has been deselected, mainly because of China's aggressive push in the South China Sea, its activation of territorial disputes all the way from Japan down to South China Sea to India and Bhutan. Let me jump in here, because I think there are a couple of things we might want to clarify for our listeners. Okay, now, despite, as you said, when Kevin Rudd was the Prime Minister of China, he was maybe overly China friendly. Yes. And some people might say a panda hugger. Maybe we shouldn't use that term. Anyway, I mean, Australia has done a 180 degree turn. I mean, now it's participating in freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea. It's very friendly with India. It's having, I believe there's been a couple of joint exercises with India. And Prime Minister Abe has really exercised a lot of leadership. And we see Japanese submarines and destroyers, surface vessels in the South China Sea. So things have really changed. Yes, they have. I believe that Quad 2.0 is like most things these days is also made in China. It's China's aggressive behavior. We serve its neighbors use of economic leverage to force countries to cause countries to tow China's line. That has boomerang. Up until the Doklam crisis last year, India was sitting on the fence. India was quite reluctant to rejoin this Quad grouping. Prime Minister Modi in India and Prime Minister Abe in Japan, they have a very close relationship. So Prime Minister Abe had been, you know, asking India to rejoin the Quad. But India was quite reluctant. But once the 73 days military standoff in Doklam started, India decided to rejoin the Quadrilateral grouping of nations. We should probably interject here. The Doklam issue involves a territorial issue between China and India right on the border of Bhutan. Actually, it is between not between China and India. It's between India, China and Bhutan. China Bhutan is a very tiny Himalayan kingdom that has special security ties with India. India is responsible for its military security. Okay, Bhutan and China do not have diplomatic ties. So it's a tiny Himalayan kingdom that is quite fearful. It does not even have diplomatic ties. That's the only country on China's periphery that does not have diplomatic ties, formal diplomatic ties with Beijing. And they have an unresolved territorial dispute. So when the PLA marched into Doklam, India, as its treaty ally, like if Australia is attacked, you know, as ends of treaty, US is bound to come to Australia's defense. So India came to Bhutan's defense to repel the PLA encroachment into Bhutan's territory. So that was a turning point. A sharp deterioration in China-India relations, like in physics, in international politics also every action there is a reaction as a reaction. So it was a Doklam crisis that convinced India that it has to send a strong signal to China. So India decided to join rejoin the Quad. You know, I just a kind of a sidestep here. You mentioned Hugh White and we, Kevin Rudd's name has come up twice today. Is there thinking similar? Would you say similar? How's it similar? How's that different? Because these are two very prominent figures in Australians that greatly impact that country's policy towards Asia. Well, not entirely, I would say. Hugh White, I would say Hugh White's diagnosis of the problem is right. In the sense that China's power has grown and US power is in relative decline. So the costs of US intervention, military intervention are pretty high. They're in defense of its allies to protect Australia and Japan or South Korea or even Taiwan to some extent, you know, if the US decides to intervene in a conflict across the Taiwan Straits, the costs for US intervention have gone up. So Hugh White is basically saying is that Australia needs to weigh its options very carefully. And it cannot blindly support the US if a conflict breaks out. And US needs to concede ground shared hegemony, cut a deal with China before it is too late. It sounds like Chaz Freeman. Yeah. So that's his argument. But the problem is that US cannot, there's nothing for US to concede. I mean, US cannot let the Southeast Asia fall under China's hegemony because US does not have any, you know, power. These countries are quite, whether it's Philippines, Vietnam, you know, Indonesia, they are, Hugh White's analysis tends to downplay the role of Korean nationalism, Filipino nationalism, Vietnamese nationalism, Indonesian nationalism, Indian nationalism. So Hugh White is not what to the extent that they say that America can just manipulate those countries. Yeah, America can cut a deal with China and everything else will fall into its proper place. I might have in that case at one time, but I don't think it is. No, so I would say diagnosis is right, prescription is wrong, because these countries do not want to go back to where they were vis-à-vis China in pre-modern Asia as tributary states of China. There is no desire to replace American hegemony with Chinese hegemony in Asia. So they are engaging in very complex, power balancing games, forming trilats. For example, when the PLA Navy conducted a naval exercise north of Australia in the Sunda Strait, that led to the formation of Australia, India, Indonesia trilateral grouping maritime grouping. It's like the Quad. Okay. You know, I think we better move on here. Let's talk about China's growing role in the Southwest Pacific Islands and here I think we can bring in New Zealand as well. Yeah. Australia and New Zealand have been the largest investors, donors to small island states. We're down to two minutes, unfortunately. And what has happened is that as part of China's Belt and Road Initiative, China has been offering billions of dollars of loans to these countries. Cheap loans, whether it's in Tonga, Tuvalu, Solomon Islands and, you know, Vanuatu, Fiji, Fiji has pursued since the military coup, not look north policy, look to China and Russia and other countries. So they have tried to move away from Australia, the dependence on Australia and New Zealand. But the fact of the matter is that Australia still remains a very important player. And China has been eyeing some very important bases in the South Pacific. Manus Island in PNG, in Fiji Black Rock base. There was talk of China expressing interest in building a naval base in Manuatu. So that has alarmed countries like Australia, New Zealand. Australia put off a kind of a coup with Fiji, didn't it? Yes, it did. Actually, Australia was able to pre-empt China vis-à-vis Solomon Islands, that fiber-optic cable, Vanuatu, PNG and Fiji. So Australia has scored four major victories over the last one year or so against China, where China was outmaneuvered by Australian diplomats and scoring those victories. What do they say? Australia punches above its weight. Yes, it does. That's great. That's great. Well, let me see here. We have down now about our last 30 seconds here. I think we covered most things. Maybe we could have gone a little bit deeper, but you know, we'll have to invite you back again. I want to thank everybody for watching today. I want to thank our guests for being here with us and sharing his insight with us. And I want to remind you to join me again next week when my guest will be Scott Elinger, Lieutenant Colonel Retired United States Army. Colonel Elinger was the defense attaché at AIT in Taiwan for a very long period of time. Even after he retired, he still lives in Taiwan. He has great insight into the Taiwan military. So it's a show that you will not want to miss. We'll see you then.