 But right now, we have Tim Ord of the Ord Oracle on the line. Guys, I want you to check out Ord-Oracle.com. Tim is obviously a regular guest on Tom O'Brien's show. And let's be real, right? His analysis is so fascinating. He was calling bullish movements in the gold months and months and months before it happened. And obviously his analysis of the general market as a whole has also been so valuable. Tim, how are you doing? Good, good. Thanks for having me on again. Absolutely, we're happy to have you. So what are you making of what's going on right now? I'm curious to see what you got in your charts. Obviously, you know, I know a lot of times you're looking at grand pictures as well, which tend to work out so much better. But this is, at least the PPI was interesting today. And I'm just curious to see what you got on the charts for us, because I got chart one up right now, looking at the GDX. All right. Yeah, we've been looking at the big charts like the monthly and weeklies and stuff. And I thought, you know, all that's in that trend. So let's kind of look at the short-term trend. And that's what this is. So this is just a daily chart kind of shows what the short-term trend's doing. And anyhow, the middle window is just a daily GDX. The higher window is the daily GDX GLD ratio. And in a nutshell, when this ratio is above is mid-Bowlinger band, you got an uptrend, which you can see there is above the mid-Bowlinger band, you got an uptrend. So I like to at least use at least two indicators and not three to really help define what the trend is. So the next higher window is GDX advanced decline and same thing. This above is mid-Bowlinger band. It's an uptrend. And the top window, I got the GDX up-down volume on the daily. The same thing here. As long as that indicator is above the mid-Bowlinger band, you're in an uptrend. And so we've been in an uptrend since, you know, basically March 1st. And the pattern that may be forming here on GDX, I'm not actually an Elliott Wave expert, but sometimes you can actually kind of tell what's going to go on. So I'm thinking we're in a five-wave up from the March flow. And we're probably, a lot of times in Lake 1 and Lake 3 are about equal. Then that would imply Lake 5 could be extended. But if you look at right now, if you look at Lake 1 and Lake 3, they're about equal. We're probably entering Wave 4 right now, which is kind of a sideways pattern. It may look similar to Wave 2, kind of just sideways. I don't know how it's going to end up. But we may just stall here a little bit. But, you know, judging by the daily indicators on this page, there's no indication of even a short-term high here. Because all three indicators are not even near the Bowlinger band. So I'm thinking we're going to move sideways here for maybe a week or so, then head up on higher. This is all on a short-term basis. So I don't see any short-term top in GDX thus far. So let's go to chart two and actually look at the weekly. We're about to have chart up. Give me a second. Okay, perfect. We have chart two right now. Okay, chart two. The bottom window is the weekly advanced decline. And the second window up is the up-down volume, weekly decline. And this whips around a little bit. All those dotted lines across the blue lines are when both indicators close above the mid-Bowlinger band. The red lines dotted lines are when they close below the mid-Bowlinger band. So you can kind of get some whipsaws back and forth as this indicator kind of whips up and whips back down. But right now, it's on the weekly time frame. It's probably still early in the time frame, but it gave way after the bottom. It just gave a bicycle here probably about, looks like about two, three weeks ago. And so on the weekly time frames, you're on a bicycle here. We're starting to break above some previous trend lines. I don't have it drawn on this chart, but I think there's a head and shoulders bottom that formed where the October of 2022 was ahead. And we're breaking the neckline right now. So even though there might be a mild consolidation here, it's not the final rally going up, but the weeklies are on a bullish configuration here. Not really seeing it turning down. We're kind of hesitating here, but short term, you know, it looks pretty good. So let's flip to chart three. All right. Okay, same indicators again, but this is on a monthly time frame. And this is the one that you want to see across the mid-Bollinger band. And these signals are always going to be late. They're probably late to the party, you know, maybe a month, maybe two at most. But they catch the main trend of the market and they get on a signal. And these signals last sometimes years. They gave a cell signal back in 2012 and remained on that cell signal all the way into 2016. So that was like a four-year cell signal. It caught the bottom and rallied up and it was on a bi-signal, you know, almost two years. Then kind of a cell signal and a bi-signal from the, you know, it looks like about 2019. The mid-2019 gave a cell signal in 2021. And actually at the moment, it's still on a cell signal as the indicator has not closed above the mid-Bollinger band. The bottom window, which is a monthly cumulative advanced decline, is right smack at the mid-Bollinger band. And the top window, which is the up-down volume, is still a little short. So the middle window is a monthly GDX. And I got that trendline drawn to show the head and shoulders bottom. And as we're talking right now, we're passing through that neckline right now. So it could hesitate maybe a week or so here. But normally when you go through them, you go through them a length of time. Right here. I hear the music. Yeah, and I have a question for you when we get back on chart three. Folks, say right there. We'll be right back with Tim Ord of the Ord Oracle. Welcome back, folks. This is Jacob Shue, filling in for Tom O'Brien. We are with Tim Ord of the Ord Oracle. Tim, before you went to break, we were looking at chart three, and you were saying... Right. I just want to make sure that I'm right on this. When it's under the mid-Bollinger band, this still indicates, this is a short-term chart, but it still indicates that we're in a sell kind of position, right? On the monthly timeframe? On the monthly timeframe. That's what you were saying, right? Yeah, back. How long do these indicators need to be above the mid-Bollinger band for it to be a true kind of shift into a buy market? Just one month. As soon as it closes on the month end, since this is a monthly chart, so if the month of April closes above the mid-Bollinger band, to me, that's the buy signal there. Okay. So it's not like two, three months or anything. As soon as it closes above the mid-Bollinger band, on the monthly close, since it's a monthly, you have to wait till the month closes, but once that happens, it's on a buy signal. But yeah, this signal on the monthly timeframe doesn't whip around like the weeklies and dailies. Usually when it gets a sell signal or a buy signal, it stays on that path for a very long, you know, for at least a year and a half. It's not longer. So if the current rally continues, you know, say in most likely oil, because I'm thinking this rally is going to last probably into September, October of this year, I think if even just last into May, both those indicators, the bottom one and the top one on this chart, will close above the mid-Bollinger band, then that opens the door. We're looking for, most probably, a multi-year rally. Probably something similar like a 2000 low of, you know, when the major bull market began back in 2000. So I'm thinking some big things are about to happen in the gold market, especially the gold stock, along with gold. If I can, I actually have a question for you in the den. This is actually just about a technical thing. We have one of the den members asking you what your Bollinger band setting is. Is it one or two standard deviations? It's two standard deviations. It's whatever the, I don't make any changes on the Bollinger bands for these indicators. So yes, it's two standard deviations for the upper and lower Bollinger band. So I just take it right off the standard model. Okay, awesome. Thank you. Yeah. All right, we can move on. Absolutely. And I also want to say too, we have some den members. We had some silver and gold to go, but they're also really looking forward to what you got on spy as well. Spy? All right. Well, we're going to skip right to it, spy, if you want to see what's going on there. Now, I'm going to pull it up right now. I think that's chart seven, right? Yeah, let's see. Perfect. Yeah, I got it. It's chart seven right now. Hang on here. This is a little bit tricky here with many hours. I'm still, you know, I haven't, if we were down today at most light, how about we got a signal? The reason why I'm saying that, let's go to the chart. The top chart is the SPY. And I got a shaded pink area across the middle there. And the only reason I shaded that pink, because that's where all the trend readings got at a high level. I labeled them back in mid-March. I had a 1.21 trend. I had a 1.15 trend. And late March, I had a 1.65 trend. Last week, we had a 1.8 trend. You notice those trend rigs all come in a kind of congested area. So once you get, start getting panic. And a trend, what I call panic, that's when a trend reading closes above 1.2. Once that starts happening, an area continues to happen. If you look at the trend reading earlier today, as the market was down, testing yesterday's low, that trend reading was up around 1.7, 1.8, up in that vicinity. And if it could have stayed down today, the market could have stayed down today, I probably would have got a buy signal. But it kind of bounced up. Now we've got a trend reading of, as we're talking, or .95, not real bearish. So I'm still thinking we're in the vicinity of a low. And I was hoping that we'd get another trend reading. I thought we might get down to 1.07 on the SPYs, which is kind of bottom of the trading range. And most likely that trend would have been pretty high there. Give me a confidence that the five-day, at least a five-day trend would probably get up to 1.2, probably not to 10-day. But that would be enough reason to get along around that 1.07 to maybe 1.10 area. But since the market rallied today, and if you notice the volume, at least on the SPY, it's not going to be higher most likely. The market, you know, the day's not over yet, but looking at it, we're probably not going to have the volume we had yesterday. So we broke yesterday's high and a lot of volume. So it kind of implies that we may go back down and test today's low again. Let's not break it a little bit. And if we do, and we get a closing reading around 1.2 or higher, I probably will be going long. If you look at the second window up from the bottom, I do quite a bit of work with a VIX and also if you do the Bollinger Bands on the VIX, it works pretty well. I've got some red circles on the VIX and today, you know, we were above the upper Bollinger Band and that was kind of a pretty good signal. You get a close above the mid-Bollinger Band on the VIX and you get a trend reading above 1.2 as the market is pushing down. That combination is a pretty good combination. So you've got two indicators that are telling you probably you're making a bottom. And also, if you notice, I also have a Bollinger Band on the SPY and that Bollinger Band was not too far from today's low. So we had all that combination with a decent setup for a buy signal. But since the market kind of rallied here, I don't have a... If we came off the bottom with the sign of strength, which we're not having, I would have maybe tried to run after it, but since there's no volume here and the trend's not showing any great panic, I'm hoping that we get one more pullback to test the lower Bollinger Band on the SPY and test the higher Bollinger Band on the VIX and hope we get a close around 1.2. That combination would be a pretty powerful combination that you at least get a bounce that would last a week or two and maybe longer. But since the bounce today maybe tomorrow would come back, I don't know, but it's kind of a floppy market. I've been out of the market for a couple of weeks here and I get close to signals and I don't quite get the trigger that I want to get. It's weird exactly as you're saying. We have a little bounce, not in a lot of action at all. I hear what you're saying. Tim, we are about to go to the break. I know you have something on silver though. I really do want to hear that as well. If you're willing to stay with us just for a little bit into the next segment. All right, you're well. Fantastic. Folks, we are with Tim Ord of the Ord of Oracle right now and we'll get back. We're going to look at one of his silver gold charts. Really looking into that, especially for your silver buds. Folks, stay tuned. We will be right back. Welcome back, folks. Jacob Schube filling in for Tom O'Brien. We are with Tim Ord of the Ord of Oracle. We're moving back to the chart four quickly because it's looking at silver and I'm curious to see what's going on with that because you've had a nice rally in silver as well. Actually, the middle window is a monthly silver gold ratio and how I use this ratio is the bottom window is a percent Bollinger band. In other words, if it touches the lower Bollinger band it gets below zero. That's usually a kind of an old oversold market and the next higher window is a rate of change just the normal of the 12th period and the next indicator above that is the RSI 14, just the 14. How I use this indicator, the monthly silver gold ratio, if two of those three indicators get into the bi-levels then the market is making a short-term low or is the XAU's concerned. That's how I use that. It's a timing market for the XAU and I put, you know, this chart goes way back to 1984 so the signals are pretty rare but when they happen they're accurate and anyhow the blue lines across the chart show the signals when the last one was generated was August 2022 and that was a low and actually Tom and I were talking I think back in maybe July or August this year because once these signals are generated for the XAU, I have the percentage if you look at the top window there I have the percentage moves when those signals are triggered and most of them are out of 100% give or take, some are more but at least 100% so I was concluding the one in last year of August the October low, or 2022 low had a projection up to around 180 well the market did start to go up but we got in a bunch of chop most of 2023 and finally we're breaking out but anyhow this was a long-term chart it gave kind of a long-term buy signal and so we think we're probably going to go up to at least 180 at a minimum on the XAU which, you know in my opinion I think we're actually doing more than that this is setting up to be more of a of a 2000 low type thing where the market may rally for a number of years but anyhow, it's not really a predicts what Silver's going to do I use the Silver-gold ratio to predict what XAU is going to do I see, I see, I see fantastic I'm bullish on Silver too matter of fact in bull markets Silver should outperform Gold and Gold stocks should outperform Gold so in essence in real strong bull markets Silver stocks should outperform the Gold is Silver and the Gold stocks right on so anyhow, Silver should do really well here going forward Silver stocks and actually Silver so I don't know we can go on to chart 5 if you want absolutely, let me pull it up right now okay again on chart 4 that gave a buy signal in August 2022 in my opinion we're still on that buy signal so if you go to chart 5 we got another signal of our August 2022 using a different method which is the slowest casics on the XAU Gold ratio so we got two different indicators and I got another indicator too that's not shown on this presentation but I got actually three different indicators on the monthly timeframes that all show that August 2022 was an important low so I think that was the bottom period we started an uptrend even though the market really hasn't done much I think momentum-wise of things to come is just starting if you look at the bottom window which is the monthly slowest casics for the XAU Gold ratio you really don't get a top in the market until you get that indicator up around plus 90 and if you look back the history of this chart goes back to look like about 1986 they all picked out those highs all pretty well going backwards so how long it's going to take to get up to the 90 period we came off the low in August 2022 we kind of bumped up and came back down there's other indicators that this rally may last into 2027 by cycle analysis so I think we're still early in this bull market I think it's got years in front of us by a few different methods and so how high it's going to go I really don't know but probably you'll have to worry when this slowest cask that gets up to plus 90 be the time to pull your bull horns back in and I don't know how high that will be on the XAU Gold ratio when we go back all the way up to .375 on this chart I don't know but if you look at the XAU Gold ratio which measures the the valuation I guess you might say gold stocks to gold gold stocks are extremely cheap compared to gold that ratio is in the past from 1980 to basically 1990 about 1990 there are actually 2000 bounced around between .15 to .375 and we were down in .059 range so I don't know what's going to go on here but I think this is once in a decade that you get this setup the last time we had this type of setup was in 2000 and that was a you know we had a lot of stocks that started off to be penny stocks that went into 10, 15, 20 dollars I'm thinking this may be setting up for something like that and right now there's really nothing really according to media anyhow that are really semi-wise I'll put it that way semi-wise we're not showing a great deal of enthusiasm with the gold stocks nobody really cares that's usually a good sign because that usually comes at the very end of the move so I still think we're in very early stages of an equity silver gold market rally that's how I'm putting it we love that if that happened to happen now yeah I've been long with this market for a time and really it gave me quite a bit of education what to do and what not to do so but I've been through this cycle you know I've been trading the gold issues all the way back to 1980 or actually about 1978 I started to even trade commodities at it and so I I've seen the cycles that they go forward and usually there's about a 20 year cycle and if you look the last cycle started in 2000 so now we're in 2024 probably the bull market really started in 2022 so we're probably in a 20 year cycle here so it'll be interesting what you said too especially being like a younger guy and really I didn't start trading until I was like what like 22 or something like that it's only about 5 years but you know listening to you and Tom like you guys have been through these kind of market moves before and I don't know for me I think and I for other young guys as well this is super cool stuff Tim we need to get to like another webinar or something going thank you so much for coming on the show today Tim seriously awesome guys that was Tim Ord of the OrdOracle.com go give him a check out that's Ord-Oracle.com and we will be right back for a short segment