 Hi there, I'm Anthony Chung and I'm the Head of Market Analysis here at Amplify Trading. Every weekday morning I'll deliver a fundamental rundown ahead of the European Open, but if you subscribe to the channel, you'll also get content from the rest of the team. So, let's begin. Okay, very good morning folks, hope you're doing well. It is of course the 1st of December and going to start off with talking about this graphic here, which is the MSCI looking at the World Index and World Equities as far as the month of November is concerned. It was the biggest monthly gain since 1988, so as you can see here, so when we were talking about the rundown yesterday and what potentially could have played out was a degree of profit taking into month-end, that kind of month-end, even more so prevalent in the quarter year end, tends to lead to a degree of activity unrelated in a sense to actual individual news flow, more so to kind of book squaring, portfolio adjustments coming into the end of those aforementioned periods, and really when we look at the markets this morning, we've had a real surge back to the upside following some of the downside that was seen yesterday. The S&P Dow closed down about 0.5% and 1% each respectively, minor outperformance in the Nasdaq, which was up about 1 tenth, but I think as I was kind of saying at the time that any of that downside wasn't really on anything other than I think a little bit of closing out some of those positions, so as such we're right back up there again, but just having a look and kind of recapping November, energy shares in the benchmark gauge gained more than 25% in November, the best months since April, while industrial and financial companies have also risen the most since 2009. On the flip side some of the tech giants, although they've gained, they've only gained around 5.9% in November, comparatively though, if we look at the Russell 2000, that's around a third of the game that's been seen in that more domestic focused index, which was up around 18%. So definitely started to see a little bit of a mild rotation, if you like, into things like value, more cyclical plays as the vaccine news in particular has kind of brought about this idea of the economic recovery taking a foot going forward. Despite the lower closer, as I mentioned in Wall Street, we are quite firmly higher in the equity space and that's been observed through the overnight Asia-Pacific session worth noting that we have had more factory activity data coming out of China overnight, this time on the Cation Manufacturing PMI and in fact it came in at a decade high, in fact. So it came in at 54.9, which is quite a bit above expectations of 53.5. So the selling has been particularly short lived and I think we can just have a look at some of these equity charts here for a moment just to give us a bit of perspective of yesterday's move and where we are at the moment and technically a couple of interesting things going on right now. So this is at the S&P 500 on that familiar chart that we've kept looking at for a period of really the last month and in the overnight session, really powerful. This is kind of the late trade on Wall Street. We actually managed to recover pretty much all of the initial opening losses on Wall Street by the time the closing bell was sounded and then Asia just carried on, carried the baton, further buying in materialized and we've managed to then get above not just this descending trend line from the Pfizer early November pop, but also above the high now that was printed on the 29th, which was the commencement of overnight trade on Sunday night this week. So here then I think you've got quite an interesting platform for price now potentially for further push on up and you've got the weekly opening high support horizontal line with that trend line, quite a nice area there of support on the cap for the overnight price activity has been around that R1, but obviously then if we continue to move up, whether that happens today or not, then the next kind of level would be up here, up that Pfizer spike high, we're seeing at 3668 and then we're right back up there at kind of all time higher territory once again. So definitely shaping up there for potentially some quite interesting moves with I'd say a buyer still to the upside as far as the NASDAQ was concerned, that was the other one I wanted to look at on a daily continuation and putting that here as I said, I think that there's some room for upside here as well because generally it gets a little bit behavioral in the futures now we're only about 70 points off of printing renewed all time highs again, I'll just put my camera back on. So that was back in early September at 12465 and now we're that close generally what I mean by behavioral is you very rarely do you get this close and not at least see a bit more of a closer test up and around those highs. So that in combination I think with the S&P above that trend line and kind of horizontal now what was resistance turn support I think gives a fairly nice platform potentially for equities to just continue to edge a little higher elsewhere, T-notes are very quiet, the dollar which it continues to follow actually the dollar that pattern I've mentioned a few times trend lower, bit of a push short term higher, trend lower, that's exactly what we're getting again this morning after going up and the dollar bouncing a fairly nice move yesterday and that nice move led to a really nice opportunity and I some of the some of the traders got hold of again and just move my camera for a moment. There was a rejection off if I put it on the daily this is looking at that 120 area of which we know has been very important symbolic as far as the ECB are concerned about the strength of the local currency and then the the retest of that yesterday and we came all the way back down to the point of back to that a previous era of resistance of 1924. So quite a nice technical response to those levels and looking on the execution from yesterday and this was what some of the guys were trading which was that 120 area and then running the market back down using then the previous closing price from last week and the reopening of trade which was that nice area here to take some of the position off and then letting it run down to eventually here not sure if anyone actually had the the gumption to hold it all the way down into the into the late US trading hours but certainly managing to get hold of a really decent move of 50 plus there that pre the actual low that we hit which came really at around the time the US were leaving the market and into the early hours of Asia Pacific trade obviously coming in step with that initial high that was seen back at around volatility from the Pfizer breaking news that we saw on the 9th so yeah really nice response there to the technical levels on the higher price point of that symbolically important 120 as we know that the ECB are particularly mindful of from a strength of the single currency for cable it's a little bit more complicated for cable purely because I think that there's a lot of misdirection with things like Brexit there's a lot of political noise going on as well about Tory revolt given the intensity of the economic disruptions to come from the latest more stringent hearing system so all in all I'd say for me cable's not that interesting until we get to the extremity of what is ultimately arranged we've been trading for the last three or four days and so very close to that at the moment so shaping up like we could have a look at 134 and obviously the dollar is weakening this morning it's down about two tenths of 1% is softening up as we go into the European open and and the Dixie's got a little room to run until we get down to the lows that was seen from yesterday so we're trading around 91 70 in a Dixie future the low yesterday was around 91 50 so that could see a retest up around that 134 so really it's the range high and lows that I'm watching because if you actually look at the price pattern although we've had this trend line in place since the kind of mid part of November and that was supporting price and then it's been a good air resistance for price this recent price activity has been awfully choppy and very hard I think to really get a handle on so better to play the overall broader range for that particular currency pair going to talk about oil though and the reason I'm going to talk about oil is because there's been some breaking news you might have seen me updating the Amphi live chat room last night and can't help myself but watch these things during during the overnight hours because OPEC plus have delayed for two days their talk they were supposed to be having they had the OPEC meeting yesterday of course this follows on from the telephone calls they were having on Sunday and this was all supposed to be a prelude then to the overall OPEC OPEC plus ministerial meeting which is supposed to be happening today but they've delayed that by two days so not going to be meeting down till Thursday to give more time apparently according to sources informed at Bloomberg to strike a deal now talks are continuing by the phone so one word of advice is I'd still expect quite a lot of hearsay room and mongering tweet action from various different players so keep an eye on your kind of OPEC watches on that space because there's probably going to be more information that comes out obviously the tail risk because the baseline assumption is still they strike a deal the tail risk is that they don't and any suggestions of that price obviously could come off quite quite rapidly given the incline that oil has seen of late in recent week or two overall though I think the media have made quite a big deal about this they've kind of said about how negative generally it is it's countries like the UAE for example which in history have been a real supporter of Saudi strategy somewhat breaking that relationship now with this latest developments that them some other countries as well that have said to be slightly more disgruntled with having to keep supply low so countries like Iran for example because of the fact that ultimately that impedes their ability to generate money for countries which are heavily geared obviously to income derived from the sale of crude oil so they don't want it to last for longer but the Saudi and Russia relationship to me that became fairly clear yesterday was it looks like they want to get a deal and they want to coordinate with each other in order to achieve that that goal so I actually take a slightly different approach although the media has been quite downbeat about a fractious kind of OPEC plus no one's getting on it's putting into jeopardy a deal I actually think the opposite the fact that that hasn't happened already and the fact that I think that they're continuing to talk and take on further consultations means to me there's a lot of political will at the top at the power players like Saudi and Russia to just pull the others in line and they will they always do and I don't really think politically it's that unusual to see some of these more lower volume producing nations albeit someone like Iran definitely is kind of right up there to be leveraging their position a little bit to try and secure themselves some degree of a better deal so countries like Iraq for example which has always had issues with compliance maybe they can get some wiggle room you know every buck counts for those guys so I don't think it's that unusual and I think for a certain degree my view is not that unusual because if you actually look at the price of oil it's not really reacted at all to this delay and I think that that's just the general rationale that most people are thinking along the same kind of lines that I am so here we are in oil and we were looking at this range yesterday that range is still in play that being defined by 44.74 and then 45.71 on the high on the daily pivots the upside there just coinciding as well with the R1 around 45.77 so yeah the meeting itself then isn't anticipated to happen now till Thursday however obviously as I said there's going to be more comments probably coming the greater risk to price reaction is still to the downside so even if they do if we get this kind of positivity emerge it looks like Thursday's more formality they're going to roll over by three months upside relief I'd say will be much more tame comparative to downside shock given the lower probability of expectations and market positioning that the market is priced for a deal so lack of one you would see definitely a fairly rapid reversal in price if that was to materialize it it's the way I'd be approaching it all right a few other things overnight we had the RBA interest rate decision not really a great deal of reaction to speak of the Aussie has been climbing up since the overnight session but generally instead with the more positive tone in Asia with that broader recovery I was talking about the case in manufacturing activity in China a decade high and obviously an influential trade partner for Australia despite their ongoing political tensions at the moment as far as the RBA is concerned they keep their cash rate three-year yield target unchanged they said positive vaccine news should support the global recovery a couple of comments I think just to be mindful of that came out of the RBA Governor Philip Lowe he said given the outlook the board is not expecting to increase the cash rate for at least three years so again that really important kind of timeline which is kind of inflicting generally with market expectations about the Fed and particularly now with the confirmation from Biden's nominees that Yellen's going to come in at lower for longer mentality just kind of helps this equity market support be supported Lowe went on to say that the board will keep the size of the bond purchase program under review particularly in light of the evolving outlook for jobs and inflation the board is prepared to do more if necessary so again that kind of cautious little tone on the end going to keep rates low for an extended period ready to do more if necessary but the vaccine is a is a positive for now so that was from overnight as I mentioned then Janet Yellen is set to come back and again I do think that this is another reason why these equity markets like the NASDAQ should see a retest to these highs just because it supports that notion of a more pragmatic kind of approach to policy less definitely combatative than what we saw under the administration more aligned then for a strategic and more harmonious relationship between that of the treasury's objectives of the government and supporting the economy fitting more in-step with Jerome Powell and the rest of the Federal Reserve so former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is confirmed as the Treasury Secretary nominee a couple of other names to just make you aware of that I think fit this collection of individuals certainly around a similar kind of viewpoint so Biden said he would nominate Wally Addiemo as Yellen's deputy at the Treasury he had been previously a Deputy National Security Advisor under President Obama and Biden has selected Cecilia Rouse as an economist who is the Dean at Princeton School of Public and International Affairs as the Chair of Council for Economic Advisers she was a member of the Council under Obama through the period of 2009 to 2011 so these people have some experience under a previous Obama-led administration coming in with Yellen definitely these would all be individuals that I would see as being supportive of this continuation if you like of being more aligned with supportive for market confidence born out of being fairly accommodative in nature Jerome Powell is speaking today of course to politicians but that that speech is not due until later on I think it's three o'clock when he actually kicks off his testimony but his text has already come out came out overnight and so Powell is set to caution lawmakers that the U.S. economy remains in damaged and uncertain state despite the progress that has been made with some of the recent vaccine use so this is according to his testimony released ahead of his appearance before the Senate banking committee today Powell reiterated US Central Bank has committed to using full range of tools to help their recovery but decline to point to any specific future action so as I was explaining to some of the guys on our training program at the moment you would kind of think that looking at a weekly calendar that a testimony with the head of the Fed and also the Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin would be an important event it only is really in regard to the recent deterioration in their relationship as we know recent weeks with Mnuchin requesting Powell turn off some of the underutilized kind of liquidity facilities if you like that were put into place during the initial onset of the pandemic so their relationship is is quite interesting the dynamic I think will be quite key to to look at but overall these events tend to be non-market moving now that's not always the case of course but generally more often or not it's just then Powell coming forward in front of then politicians to the different committee sects from the house or the Senate and so on and just explaining the rationale of why he's done what he's done what the situation how he will deal with the future but even with the latter with forward guidance he won't very rarely deviate from the script so it's more of a political kind of showpiece than I'd say one that's a platform for Fed officials to really say anything of magnitude that can move markets just as a reference point for any of those not used to to monitoring those events not going to really talk about too many earnings going forward but I know a couple of the guys are invested in Zoom so I thought only appropriate to give them their their morning kind of breakfast shot of what exactly happened because after market last night Zoom did fall about 8% they managed to claw back some of that and they closed down about 5% in after market trade for Zoom basically their fourth quarter revenue was above expectations I believe that EPS was a solid beat but its gross margins fell and some growth metrics slowed and that was what created the more negative reaction in their share price so I do always find it quite interesting with these type of reactions I don't know who would think that Zoom could continue to kind of add new users and grow at the rapid rate of which it has over the last nine months or so I do think it's somewhat inevitable that the earnings will start to slow from what they had been which is just obviously fantastic so it's almost like the bar set's so high they're almost doomed to fail but context is always key a 5% downward move in their share price is is large but not massive comparative to the performance of the shares obviously over a period of the last year to date I mean if we look at year to date they were trading back down at the beginning of the year at 70 bucks they've come off 5% which is what moving from like 480 to 455 60 and they've gone from 70 bucks they're still up at around 453 at the close yesterday so obviously context is important here quick look at the calendar for today what have we got what's going on actually it is a fairly busy day not so much from the market final manufacturing PMIs and for that reason they are final so the UK Eurozone US numbers will come out throughout the day again I think just be aware that potentially not going to be that market impactful given that fact but you do have the Eurozone HICP flash number coming out at 10am expected at minus 0.3% which would be unchanged in previous so interesting metric of course just given the fact that we are anticipating a further increase to the PEP from the UCB when they meet in just a few weeks time then going into the afternoon we get the ISM manufacturing PMI which would of course be interesting to keep an eye on the employment employment constituent as well as one of the main kind of pieces of the puzzle then for the the payroll national report we'll get on Friday in NFP and then you've got the API all inventories later so the OPEC meeting bumped not on the calendar now but obviously comments still to be on the lookout for then from the speaker perspective power kicks off at 3 but should just be a repeat of what we've already heard from the overnight text you've then got Christine Lagarde speaking again Feds Brainard who is a voter for now and then new incoming voters for 2021 so definitely worth keeping an eye on their latest take is Feds Deilene Evans speak later on this evening London time so yeah that is it for the time being so overall looking at the charts this morning I think a little bit of a mental reset I don't think really a great deal went on yesterday that was really fundamentally a pivot point for kind of market direction I think yesterday was more just a consequence of the calendar now we're back into the first deck it'll be interesting to see how how equities can perform overall if we can break out from here I'd want to be looking out me looking at the Dow here we're already at a fairly significant area of resistance at 29904 you can see the market has rejected that area in the overnight Asia Pacific session and if I was just to draw a horizontal line kind of here just to show you what I'm looking at I'd want to see breaks of these areas it's kind of here so let me just color it just to make it crystal so the Dow has got to get above here and then for a further opening up of a push to the upside the Nasdaq then could have a retest at the all-time high and the S&P's got that that nice floor of support around that trend line and the high that was seen at the reopening of trade on Sunday night so definitely worth keeping an eye on that and then also the dollar which is paired about 50% of the overall gain that was seen yesterday which has helped the recovery in some of those major FX pairs again if we come up to 120 worth watching in the Euro and 134 in cable and then on the lookout for any headlines rumors coming out from the OPEC discussions okay guys have a good day and I'll see you in Amphi live chat room thanks very much