 I'm going to trade us to another Tick Mill weekly market outlook with me, Patrick Munley, for week commencing the 24th of May. The dollar continues to slip and is less than 1% away now from the lows of the year. It's quite remarkable given the US 10-year yields have risen 70 basis points and a number of Fed participants want to be talking, tapering sooner rather than later. Yet the weakness in the dollar is a large part of the core of the Fed, unhurried about the need to withdraw stimulus and recovery stories elsewhere in the world. These core views are unlikely to be challenged in the week ahead because this US data calendar is relatively light. Here the focus will be on any possible upward revisions to 1st quarter 21 GDP but that may be some softer home sales and durable goods orders data. We will also see May's advanced US trade balance and a 92 billion dollar deficit is expected. It's quite a large hole to fill when the US Exceptionism of the 2018-2020 period is being challenged by overseas recovery and US real rates remain very negative. The week ahead will also see a variety of Fed speakers who largely sit on the dovish end of the spectrum. Away from the US calendar, the market will keep close watch on volatility in cryptocurrencies and tech stocks as well as developments in the RMMB. Any signs of independent RMMB strength could lend weight to the notion that the PBOC wants a stronger currency to insulate against imported commodity price rises. From a technical perspective, dollar index is carving out this this wave 5 an hour whilst we trade below the trend line here currently in the 1950 area. I'm looking for an extension through the prior year state lows 89-20 down to an ideal 87-50. We could extend further to test the descending trend line support down to 86-70 but I'm looking for completion of this major wave one into this 87-50 86-20 area and from there I think we can start to think about a corrective phase developing. To the upside if we do take out the channel resistance at the 1950 then I think we should see a test of 91-30 to 91-50 before we trade lower again. Eurodollar continues to hold up well and the key story here is probably the rotation to European asset markets as confidence in the recovery intensifies. In local currency terms, euro stocks has outperformed the S&P and flow data suggests US investors are increasingly interested in eurozone equity ETFs. Somewhat surprisingly the Treasury bund spread has also been narrowing since a wide of 200 basis points in late March a move which could discourage some of the reverse Yankee issuance which had been weighing on the euro. For the week ahead the highlights of the eurozone data calendar will be the May readings for consumer and business confidence. We'll also see the May reading for German EFO which risks come in a little softer based on manufacturing PMIs. The only part of the week we'll also see a special European Council meeting top of the agenda here is climate change and the EU's plan to implement a net reduction of greenhouse gases of at least 55% by 2030. Increasing interest from the corporate Treasury community in hedging of carbon emission allowances will see much focus on the EU does with its allowances and whether the spot price will surpass the recent peak of 56 euros per metric tonne. From a technical perspective euro dollar is continuing to grind up here in a what could be an ending diagonal pattern as 121.50 supports I'm looking for a test and breach of year-to-date highs before we see any type of meaningful pullback. To the downside if we do take out the trend line support here at 121.30 look for a pullback to test initially the descending trend line resistance to now act as support at 121.50 we fail here then we've been looking for support down to 119.60 but the base case for now is a grind higher here to test take out the prior highs at 123.50. In terms of the dollar yen US Treasury yields have stored around the 1.6 to 1.65% area and there does not seem to be a clear catalyst in the week ahead as to what will drive them higher. This has taken some of the steam out of the dollar yen rally and indeed if any currency pair showed a hint of reacting to last week's crypto crash it was the dollar yen. Let's see whether the dollar starts taking notice of the US trade deficit this coming week. The Japanese calendar is really quiet for coming week we've been hearing more about foreign rotations into Japanese equities but so far there is no evidence of that in the Japanese Ministry of Finance weekly portfolio flow data. So let's see this week if that changes from a technical perspective dollar yen is holding on to this trend line support here coming in at the 108.60 area if it can hold here then it has an equality objective at 110.78 however if we take out 108.30 as support then I look for an extension to the downside to test 106.50. Sterling managed to shake off the recent dollar rebound quite well and in line with the other European FX it now continues going higher. The strong UK main PMIs have underlined the optimistic case of the UK economic outlook and it's clearly a tailwind for Sterling although domestic data are unlikely to prove much of the boost this week it's quite it's a really quiet week on the domestic calendar front with the only printer note being the April UK public finance numbers on Tuesday and that's unlikely to have much of an impact on Sterling. Sterling is holding on to trend line support here at the 141 area as it does so anticipate a breach of the prior highs at 142.50 to extend as up into the monthly R3 143.30 is the next upside objective however if we take out trend line support here at the 141 area then I can see a pull back to the 140 as support before we make another leg to the upside. Lastly the Aussie has received mixed signals from the data side and the commodity sides last week and employment fell to 5.5% in March but the number of people employed actually shrank all in all it was broadly positive reads as it shrugged off the concerns about the impact of the end of jobkeeper wage subsidy scheme. Ultimately it may have applied a little more pressure on the RBA sandwiched although there are no speeches of public meetings due soon so we'll have to wait longer for any potential change in rhetoric. On the commodity side I'm all shared signs of recovery at the start of the week but then followed other commodities lower and broke decisively below the 180 US dollar metric ton. It's still trading at very high levels compared to historical standards although markets will remain highly focused on any signs of slump in prices that has further to go but the Aussie this remains along with other developments in the Aussie China trade relationships the main downside risks. From a technical perspective the Australian dollar holding its trend line support here as it does hold this 77 level we look for an extension higher to test monthly range resistance at 79.60 and then the prior cycle highs up to 80. If we fail to hold the trend line support then look for a move back to test the 76 level of support if we don't find support there buyers don't step in then we could trade lower to test 75 area as the next level of support. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 24th of May. As always traders join me on Thursdays at 1 pm for a deep dive into all asset classes and as always I wish you all the best of luck for the week ahead.