 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Wednesday morning, everybody. Happy Fed Day. All eyes on Chairman Powell. 2 p.m. Eastern time, the announcement, 2.30 p.m. Eastern time, the press conference to follow. We've got markets this morning accelerating higher, basically back to where we were yesterday morning before you had a little bit of a sell-off. You get the S&Ps right now, up by about 17 points, trading just about 4,500 at 4,506. NASDAQ 100, you're up by 58 points right now, trading 15,433. Similar action. You get back all the losses yesterday. You're just over the 2.30 p.m. Eastern time high in the NASDAQ at 415,433. Dow catching a bid this morning as well, up about a third of a percent, inching towards 35,000. We're at 34,942 in the Russell, positive by eight. Crude, a little bit of a reprieve from the highs of yesterday. Yesterday, I'm on the program, 9.30, you're hitting 9,250 in the price of light, sweet, crude, and just like that, you give up $3 from the price of crude. You back this thing up to see the trend line. We were talking about a pretty decisive break out of that trend line. Maybe we finally get a little bit of a reprieve in the price of crude. We'll be talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad, as we do every Wednesday, coming up at 40 past the hour. We talk forex, of course. We always talk commodities, interested to see what Teddy has to say about the price of crude recently. You jump over to Gold Contract, trading at 1953, basically flat right now on the session. You jump over to notes and bonds. That may be the intention today, and you talk about it, man. How about yields? We got the 10-year right now, 4.33%. You talk about the two-year right now. Sitting at 5.06%, yields easing a bit. But boy, all eyes will be on Chairman Powell at 2 p.m. Eastern time today and 2.30. The press conference to follow seems like the pause is what they're gonna do. But as we all know, a lot more at stake than just the decision at 2 p.m. Eastern time. Where's the dot plot? What are they thinking forward going? You're gonna see data dependent, as everyone's saying, as they should be, right? Everything is gonna be data dependent. We're not out of the woods yet, folks, okay? So keep that in mind as we go forward. No matter what Chairman Powell says, and it matters, they are gonna be data dependent. We are not out of the woods. We're still in a price range of consumer prices, pushing what, three to 4% being kind on the inflation front? Yes, that can ease. But as long as we're pushing almost 4%, okay? It's data dependent. I heard the term yesterday I was talking about it, is the fact that inflation cooling a transitory factor. Gotta love that word transitory, man, to say the least. We jump over to the VIX this morning. VIX trading at 13.84. We spiked to 14.88 yesterday, easing a bit as we come into Fed Day, but boy, we'll see where we go from there. And we'll see where we go in terms of the day. We got about 20 minutes till the opening bell, but we're gonna have four and a half hours of market trading from 9.30 to two o'clock, where all eyes are just gonna be waiting for the Chairman at 2PM Eastern Time. All right, let's jump around. Where do we start? We start for the Fed, why not? Focus will be on the dots that likely will show one more move this year. Again, that's gonna be data dependent as well, but we're gonna get a dot plot and listening to a lot of talking heads, but I agree with the fact that you say, Chairman Powell likes to say the dot plots don't mean anything, right? They're forward-looking and everything can change going into the future. That's just an estimate right now of where we will be in the future, but that doesn't lock you into that, right? It's not as meaningful because the data is gonna determine where we go in the future. With that said, if it was meaningless, they wouldn't put it out, okay? So we're gonna get a dot plot. We'll see where we go from there. They're set to pause, is the deal, and we are at a rate right now of 5.25 to 5.5%, and there are your estimates, folks. If we don't get a pause, everybody's gonna freak out. We're gonna get a pause, okay? We are gonna get a pause, but what are they gonna say that comes with that pause? We will see where they go from there, and yeah, the forecast for interest rates, that's gonna be the focus, the dot plot, where they go from there, and you talk about forecasts, right? Whether you're talking about the federal funds rate, what we're looking at, they may project higher for longer rates as inflation persists. The Fed forecast may show faster growth and less unemployment in 2023. The growth rate has ticked up. The committee could raise its forecast for 2023 growth to about 2% double its view from June. Look how fast things are moving, man. Remember June was like yesterday, folks? Nonetheless, they may double the estimate for growth in 2023 growth has picked up, so they're gonna price that in. They may talk about unemployment. I mean, what, Amazon yesterday, 250,000 jobs. How's that gonna hit unemployment when you got Amazon adding a quarter million jobs themselves? You have other companies as well. We got FedEx out with their numbers today and let's jump over to FedEx. Winds over Wall Street with six billion in cuts gains on UPS, pulling down the numbers a bit and let's jump over to it before we. Yeah, so you're looking at FedEx barely up this morning. It's gonna be interesting on the heels of the UPS in terms of where FedEx goes on those numbers. But nonetheless, we jump over to Instacart, okay? Now we were talking about this one yesterday, folks. I got my own anecdotal experience on Instacart, okay? But I told you to be careful, folks and I hope you were careful yesterday on this equity because if you bought the open, you paid the price dearly. This thing opened at $41. You got a brief spike for a period of 10 minutes and then it traded lower for the entirety of the day and you're talking about almost a 20 to 25% haircut on this equity. I think they priced the IPO at what, $30 to $31. Let's see what we're talking about for. They gonna load? I was gonna say what the market cap is. You're probably pushing about $10 billion. Maybe they don't have all the information in there just yet, cause they weren't public. Folks, when you're dealing with private equity money, okay, and you got a company that at one time was valued at $40 billion and then that private equity money decides to push that capital that those equity shares out to the public at a valuation of $10 billion. Do you think they believe that that equity is gonna go back to $20, $30, $40 billion in the near term? If they thought it was going back to $20, $30 or $40 billion in the near term, they wouldn't be pushing it out to the public at $10 billion, okay? They're worried that everything's gonna evaporate. You got a lot of big money in these equities. The founder alone, I was talking about reading today, I should say, walks away with about $1.1 billion. And he's out. He gave up his board seat. He's not the CEO anymore. And he walks with $1.1 billion. Meanwhile, the companies only were $10 billion. It used to be worth $40 billion. And you just traded from almost $43 to a price tag of 3154 this morning. Very little buying action throughout the day. I'd be interested to see where this thing goes from here. But it's common sense, folks, okay? Private equity is very smart money. If they saw a move higher from a valuation of $10 billion, they wouldn't be pushing it out to the public at $10 billion. No, there's a lot of fear in that room when you got the equity cut in their valuation by 75% from $40 billion down to 10. And I tell you, as somebody that was a huge customer for Instacart, you see how if you lose one customer, the dramatic drop-off that can ensue. I got a family of five in the house, right? And you're spending easy $300 on groceries a week. That's if you're going to the store, let alone what you're paying on Instacart, right? You're paying $300, that's $1,200 a month. That's almost what? $14,000 a year. And overnight, I disappeared because costs were too high and it was no longer worth it. Be careful, they got a lot of competition out there as well. Stay tuned, folks, we're coming back to talk to our man Kevin Hinks from the Schwab Network, we'll be right back. 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We've got markets in positive territory. S&P futures up by about 16 points. That's a third of a percent right now. You get the NASDAQ 100 up a third of a percent. You get the Dow up a third of a percent right now in the Russell just over that level as we come into a pretty important Fed decision at 2 p.m. Eastern Time Press Conference to follow, to talk about some of the action. Let's jump over to our man, Kevin Higgs. Every trading day, folks. 12 noon Eastern Time Fast Market from the Schwab Network aired right here on Tiger TV. Check it out. I'm sure today will be a good one. We got a lot to discuss. Kevin Higgs, good morning. Good morning, Tommy Bryant. Yeah, we have a lot to discuss, but really if you think about it, we sit and we wait, right? Because we have a lot to discuss on what Jerome Powell's gonna say at 230 Eastern today because, you know, we have some economic data out. We had UK CPI come in a little bit expected. We have more GPs that were sharply higher than expected, but all things considered, I think we are waiting for 230 Eastern Time for Jerome Powell to give us his thoughts on the overall fight against inflation, Tommy. I think that's what we're waiting for. And, you know, Kevin, it seems like the consensus, not seems like, the consensus out there is a pause. It would be a shock if we get anything other than that. So you fast forward to potentially the press conference at 230. They're looking for the dot plot. Maybe they're looking for potentially one more hike this year in the dot plot. Is there anything you're looking for in particular, Kevin? There could be a surprise, whether it's talking about hawkish, dovish. How do you try and anticipate what you're looking for potentially? And I know that's the million, if not billion dollar question. But as a trader with experience, which is why we love talking to you, is there anything that's on your mind what you're looking for? Are you looking for surprises? What are you kind of anticipating, if anything, coming up from the chairman at 230? Well, I want to know how Jerome Powell is going to, how does he navigate the headline inflation data because of crude oil that's coming in much stronger versus the core data, right? And how to break those two discussions in terms of fighting inflation, because let's face it, there's nothing Jerome Powell in the Fed can do about crude oil prices, right? There's very little they can do about grain prices and food, things like that. They, I mean, all they can do, they have one tool, and that is to raise interest rates. So I'm going to see how he talks about that. I want to see how he talks about the projections for inflation and rates into next year. Remember the markets, who I consider in my career in this business, a spoiled child, the markets, they'll want lower rates quicker than maybe Jerome Powell will want to do and the mistakes of the past stopping too early before inflation gets down to a reasonable level. I think it's something he's got to talk about. So there's plenty. Remember, historically, if the Fed doesn't move, they wouldn't even be a press coverage. So the new, more transparent Fed, Jerome Powell's got to sit up there and take questions, even though he's leaving interest rates unchanged. Tommy? Yeah, it's going to be an interesting one, man. I imagine he's going to have many questions on the front you talked about, along with where we go forward. I know the data is going to matter. I'm sure we're going to hear the phrase data dependent in some form. We've got about five hours until that press conference, man, as you said, we sit here and wait. What do you think about the VIX, Kevin, sitting at $13.78? We were at $14.88 yesterday. Markets accelerating off of the lows. What do you think about that coming into a pretty important, volatile decision potentially from the Fed with the VIX under $14 as it's persisted pretty low recently in this market as it's traded higher? Yeah, I mean, all you got to do is look at what's happened to the S&P 500 over the last several weeks. It's been pretty range-bound, right? You can make a case that go back to June and we're at pretty close levels to where we were in June. Now we've gone up a little bit. We've gone down a little bit, but all things considered, the market's been pretty flat since mid-June, right? And so that and the lack of big percentage moves are going to take its toll on the VIX going forward. So I think that has more that when I look at the VIX and the average for the VIX since it became the S&P 500 is 15.39. So the fact that we're below there, yeah, I think it is the product of a pretty range-bound environment right now, Tommy. Boy, as you were talking about it, I just pulled the VIX up. I put it on a weekly chart on the Thinkorswim platform. I had it going back five years, Kevin, to encapsulate whether it was COVID, everything. We are at some low levels on this VIX, man. But as you said, we're inching higher. We get the S&Ps at 4,500 and change. You get the NASDAQ 100 at 15,400. All things considered, pretty strong market. And as you were talking about it too, I pulled it up on the daily. Yeah, we're right back to where we were three months ago in the S&P, middle of June, pretty remarkable. With that in mind, Kevin, as you said, we're waiting for the Fed at two. You guys are going to be talking at 12 Eastern times. Do you guys have any equities you're talking about today coming up on fast market, Kevin? Yeah, we'll keep ourselves busy with trading FedX. In the first segment today, we'll trade garden restaurants who has earnings coming out in the second segment, like fully old do presentation on garden restaurants and the massive restaurant tour who owns several restaurants that we've all been to. Like Olive Garden, like Yard House, like season 52. Anyway, and then we'll look at KB Homes, the home builder, right? Home builder in such incredible, is interesting to look at home builders right now, Tommy. So pretty good show today, waiting for the Fed will trade FedX, garden restaurants and KB Homes. Three great equities, man. And they're all kind of in their own entity of that conversation, the home builders, as you mentioned, boy, that conversation, the home builders doing so well. Like I KB Homes up there, up from $25 last year on the low is about to $55 this year. Nobody is selling their houses, man, cause they got low interest rates. So the home builders, kind of the only game in town, at least recently. Well, Kevin, I appreciate the time on a busy morning, as always. And who knows where we're gonna be tomorrow when I talk to you in 24 hours, but we'll be watching Fast Market at 12 today, Kevin. Have a great one. We'll talk to you tomorrow, man. Thanks for having me on, Tommy, have a great day. Always a pleasure, folks. Check it out, Fast Market from the Schwab Network right here on Tiger TV every trading day, 12 till one. Kevin Hinks, Tom White, the outstanding team they have over there. Our man, Randy Frederick was on there yesterday, having a great conversation. They got a great lineup of guests and I'm sure it'll be a good program, as always. We jump over to FedEx, which they'll be talking about. FedEx, with their numbers after the bell, there's a longer term chart. COVID lows of about a hundred. You're up to 3190. You're back off to 145 and you see the acceleration, man. Sitting at about 250 bucks. You jump over to the analyze tab in terms of the move they're looking for, about a $12 move priced in for their earnings after the bell today. $250 equity. So you're looking at almost a 5% move in either direction for FedEx shares as they'll be coming out after the bell today. And yeah, I imagine they're gonna have a lot of questions to deal with, whether it's on the heels of the UPS deal. One of the conversations I remember that I was reading about on the heels of that union deal for UPS. Now, UPS is unionized. FedEx deals with a lot of contractors. FedEx was already having a difficult time in terms of getting workers to facilitate everything, especially in those warehouses, okay? And it's because number one, they're competing with UPS right out of the gate. But what I found so interesting when that UPS deal was getting done, right? Is that they shifted to the FedEx deal and it's gonna make things even more difficult for FedEx to potentially procure those workers, especially in their warehouses. And then you shift to, they're actually competing with themselves for workers because one of the conversations that the executives were having with FedEx was saying, hey, you gotta be careful how much we pay our warehouse workers because we start paying them too well. And then the drivers are actually gonna say, hey, man, these warehouse workers are doing so well. Maybe I'll go in the warehouse instead of being a driver. And then they'll have problems with the drivers. So they got a lot of issues we find out after the bell. Stay tuned, folks, we're coming back for the opening bell. Just to your portfolio can be a major game changer. But the full complexities of these instruments can oftentimes allude even the most experienced traders. 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Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, Educating Investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. We got markets open. You got the markets pairing the gains a bit. S&P pulls back slightly on the open right now. You got it up about 11 points trading just above 4,500 and Azdec 100. You're up by 210,015,408. Dow in the positive as well. So FedEx with the earnings after the bell. We jump around to some of the fang stocks this morning. Apple catches another bid. It'd be interesting, you know, the iPhone 15. So I have the iPhone 12, 12 Pro Max I think. And rightfully so, there are very little differences when you talk about generational changes for the iPhone. When you go back, like, you know, from the five to the six, you actually could tell a massive difference for the options that you could get on that phone, maybe the camera, the different features available. That is not the case so much anymore, but I will tell you that number one, excuse me, the camera gets better and better. And even though it's not as noticeable, once you go to two to three generations, it seems like there's an impetus maybe to say this might be a slight motivating factor, very difficult on a generational basis as in from the 14 to the 15, the 13 to the 14. But you go a few out and I find myself saying, you know, I got the 12, the battery is not as strong as it used to be. That is one thing that is a factor for sure. And I find myself saying, you know what, maybe I'll start taking a look at that 15, maybe, didn't really care for the 14, it wasn't quite there. Maybe I'll start taking a look at that 15. Nonetheless, Apple shares basically flat this morning, you jump over to Amazon. The news yesterday, 250,000 seasonal workers, full-time and part-time, they trade lower by about $4, you're up a bit this morning by about three-tenths percent. Disney had the news yesterday spending capital as well. You die from 85 to 82, you're trading at about 82.30. Let's show up over to Instacart, see how they're trading this morning. Down 2.3% yet again, and folks, I'd be careful. As I said, man, that was one day of pain, and usually the pain does not end that quickly. When you trade from 43 bucks down to 34, I mean, if you got this thing on the IPO, are you holding it? No, I'm dumping that thing instantly. And that's probably what everybody did when this thing went IPO from 42, potentially down to 38. You got a lot of insiders in there. I'm not sure if they're held up or whatnot. But just the whole setup on this equity, in terms of between the float that they were pushing out to the public, you had insiders that were scooping up a lot of that float to make sure that there was not that much supply in the market, probably indicative of the fact that they were worried about demand, and guess what, they're right. Be careful, folks, Instacart. And listen, I got the Instacart app on my phone. The other thing I'll tell you as well, okay, anecdotally, is that I had, I was being bombarded with notifications from Instacart of pretty phenomenal deals, talking about $40 off your next grocery order of $100. That's a phenomenal deal, okay? Now, keep in mind, you get a deal like that, you might not even be saving money though, okay? It might be free though. What they were doing is they were trying to pad the numbers as they come into that IPO, okay? The three months prior to it, right? They're making sure they're boosting revenue numbers, even if the margins are shrinking a bit, they wanna make sure that that top line number is showing growth, that it's not gonna wane a bit. So be careful in this equity as you're off 3.8% even from the close of action yesterday at $34. We jump over to FedEx ahead of their numbers, catching a lift, market ready for their numbers after the bell, up about 1% right now at $252.87. And let's jump some of the auto workers. So we talked about this one in the beginning of the week, talking about potentially, this is gonna be a slow roll, and it's interesting. So never have they struck at all three auto workers at the same time, right? You got Ford, GM, Stellantis, all of them on strike simultaneously. But what they're not doing is they're not on strike across the board. They've struck at three different plants, but already talking about, guess what? If we don't have another deal or potentially progress by Friday, we're talking about more plants. It's gonna continue to roll is what's gonna happen there. Either the big three get down to business and work with us to make progress in negotiation or more locals will be called on to stand up and go out on strike, okay? So it's interesting that they're gonna keep pressing the pain, they're not all gonna do it at once. They're gonna keep pressing the pain. They're gonna maintain a little bit of leverage. The auto workers, now where this gets interesting is that you could have some fractions because if you're still an employee that's working, right, imagine you're the employee that's on strike. So you're an auto worker union member and your plants on strike, but meanwhile, other plants are still working. Those employees are still getting paid. Now you might be getting paid something by the union, but you can see as these persist, is that gonna be fair? Are people gonna think that's fair? They're gonna be able to hold the line. There's so much at stake, man. It's gonna be interesting to see. Negotiations do not get much higher stake than this. As we come into things, the new deadline raises the stakes for talks between the three and you got 146,000 workers out there. And nonetheless, this is gonna persist. We jump over to some of those equities and see how we're trained today. It's FedEx, FedEx trade and higher, man. Ford, basically flat right now. You jump over to GM, basically flat. What is the Stellantis? STLA. They catch a bit up 2.5%. You put this thing on a daily, you see the volatility. Yeah, it's not one of the fundamentals. Nonetheless, that's gonna play out for some time. You get the S&Ps right now up about 10 points. We jump over to notes and bonds. Checking in on notes and bonds. And boy, you talk about it, right? Coming into a pretty important Fed decision and we have the 10-year sitting at 4.33%. And how about the two-year man sitting at 5.07%, 5.07%, man. Now, I talked about it yesterday as well. There's a risk-free rate of return out there, folks, of above 5% right now, which is absolutely remarkable. When you look at where we are in this market at 4,500, longer-term retirement, 401K, yeah, I got all my money basically in growth stocks, okay? And I'm young enough, I'm 43 years old, you don't have to be worried about it. But on a shorter-term basis, depending on where you are, depending on what money you're talking about, okay? Let's say you're retired and let's say you have a piece of your capital that is essential to life expenses, okay? What I encourage you to think about is, are you willing to take a haircut of 20% in this market? I'm not telling you it's gonna happen, okay? But are you willing to take a 20% haircut? Because guess what, folks? A 20% haircut, okay, is only talking about trading back to where this market was chopping around less than a year ago. If you don't think that can happen, then you're not pricing in the probabilities of events that could occur. A five-year ladder right now is at 5.09%, okay? So you have to think of the opportunity costs, okay? Now this is going from active trading to retirement portfolio management, okay? And I am not a portfolio manager at all. So consult a professional to say the least. But what you wanna think about is, you're getting 5% a year. That's a 10% return over two years. That means over two years, you're getting the S&P approaching 5,000, risk-free, okay? So where you are on that retirement spectrum, think about that. Because a lot of people, I think, with where this market is right now, with where it's come from, with the gains that you have potentially in the S&P, are you comfortable taking a 20% haircut? That's only talking about going back to 3,600, folks, okay? You're only talking about giving up six months of gains and boom, you're gonna be down almost 15% in this market. Are you comfortable with that? If you are, then it's great. If you're able to hold that out in the long term, then yeah, keep some money in the market, man. The market is strong, AI, technology, the margins that we may be able to add to some of these technology stocks could really give a lift. But boy, you talk about a five-year ladder right now is above 5%, and you know, you add that. You're adding 450 points a year, man. You're adding big-time money on the S&P on a longer-term basis, risk-free. Stay tuned, folks. We're coming back, talking to our man, Teddy Kakes-Dat, the Tiger Forex Report, and he's got a webinar coming up next week as well. We'll be right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. 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On Wednesday, September 27th, from 4 p.m. to 5 p.m. Eastern Time, Teddy is hosting a live stream that will teach you how to capitalize on time with calendar stock options spreads. Teddy will also go over how to trade stocks and other market movements without large capital allocation, how to expand portfolio diversification, how to maximize potential returns, basic entry and exit techniques, and more. If that wasn't enough of a reason to attend, Teddy will also be answering all questions live. If you're serious about making money in this market, head over to the front page of TFNN.com today to sign up for Teddy's live stream. TFNN, Educating Investors. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Welcome back folks, we've got the S&P Futures just chopping around where we kick things off. We'll be interested to see if this market actually does anything over the next four hours waiting for that 2 p.m. Eastern Time announcement, 230 press conference to follow. Right now we're gonna jump out of our, over to our man, Teddy Kextat. Folks, you can read Teddy's Tiger Forex report, check that out under the newsletter tab at TFNN. It comes out every Monday morning. Teddy's also got a webinar coming up. One week from today, folks, capitalized on time with calendar stock option spreads with Teddy Kextat. That's gonna be coming up a week from today, four till 5 p.m. Eastern Time. The cost is $97. It's not a recurring subscription, folks. It's a 60 minute webinar. It will be archived. I imagine we'll have a group, a good group in there just as we had for Teddy's last webinar, and I'm looking forward to hearing what he's gonna be talking about. Teddy Kextat, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. First of all, I appreciate you filling in for me. For a couple of days while I was gone, man, I was able to catch some of those programs as I was over in Europe, man. I appreciate it as always. And let's jump into it, Teddy. You got a webinar coming up a week from today. If we can kick things off with the webinar, talking about calendar stock option spreads, capitalizing on time. If you could just give maybe the listeners a brief preview of what you'll be talking about next Wednesday. Sure, yeah. I'm looking forward to next Wednesday's webinar. Yeah, the whole topic is gonna be calendar spreads, and we're gonna go through basically the decision tree on how you apply these trades, what type of expirations you look for, and the value of that type of option trading strategy that it gives to both beginner and advanced traders, especially with market timing and stuff like that. It's a great way of really putting on a trade that it's a calendar spread, it's something you're not trading on an intraday basis. It's something you put on and you don't necessarily forget about it, but you do have to have a lot of time that passes for the trade to manifest itself. But it's a very easy strategy to apply. It's definitely something that you can work in with whether you're holding positions in stocks, and that's what we go over too, is that it's not just an option strategy to trade certain market directions or lack thereof, but also how you can incorporate that into your portfolio with stocks that you already have. And you can kind of add a little, people don't know about covered calls. Well, that's a very simple strategy, but it really doesn't make people very much money. It's something they used to talk about years ago. This is something that's totally different. It's a way of adding a little bit of extra juice to your portfolio while you're still maintaining a stock position as well. Which I thought when we were talking about this webinar and you putting it together, I remember having that conversation with you and that was the most intriguing myself. And I love options, man. Calendars myself, not that I struggle, but because there's those two elements of things, whether you're buying a short term, selling a longer term, I'm really looking forward to that hour myself, man, digging into that and finding out what you're talking about. So I can't wait for next Wednesday. With that in mind, man, let's talk about the market. Always great, we talked to you on Wednesday, so usually we talked to you on Fed Day. Today is a Fed Day. What do you think about this market? What are you looking for for action, if anything, from the chairman at two o'clock and the press conference to follow? Well, I think short term leading up to the number at 215, I think what you're really gonna see is probably a little bit of trend action for the next hour or so, and then it's gonna probably tighten up as we get into the lunchtime hours and become pretty flat line, I would think, across the board and the S&Ps, as well as the currencies. The dollar's been under pressure for a few days. You have a nice little move going on this morning. And I think that's because yields have retracted in both the 30 year and the 10 year, especially over the past few hours. So you're catching a nice bid in the Euro US dollar, but overall, even the pound US dollar, and the most of the European currencies, I would look at it as a corrective move right now. So dollar strength is not so much because of what's going on with the Fed. It's the trend is pretty stretched. Just if there was no Fed meeting, I think it would be pretty likely that we'd be having the bounce that we're having right now, short term this week. There's nothing very radical, except for, especially when you look at the currencies, the ones that have the most extreme move over the last week or so is pretty much like the New Zealand and the Australian dollar. Those are the heaviest beaten up currencies. The yen hasn't really moved much. It's hanging below its highs. I think a lot of that has to do with, they're waiting on our Fed decision because you have the bank of Japan that also came out with some speak last week. So definitely, I think we will see after today a lot of reaction because it'll be really interesting to see what Paul's tone is and how that makes the BOJ react. And I think if he remains fairly hawkish, that you'll probably see a reaction from the bank of Japan within the next week or so as well. Yeah, that yen chart is something, right, man? Pushing 147.72 right now from, she's 138 recently and boy, it's been some pullbacks, but a pretty straight trip from that 127 low, man, with some decent pullbacks, but we almost got it all back from where we were at 151, which is remarkable. Crude is helping that as well. I'm sorry, say that again? I said, Crude is helping that as well. I mean, we pretty much have a set floor now about 70 to $75 in Crude. I would be stunned if we get below that price anytime in the next two years, really, really. Honestly, I think that's pretty much a floor. So we're looking at seeing a 100 plus plus dollar oil within the next couple of months and definitely as we move into 2024. Yeah, you beat me to the question, man, when I was thinking about talking to you, Crude is always in the forefront of the mind. We've had that discussion for some time on a shorter term basis. And I love the longer term look and I probably agree with you, man, because $70 Crude in the context of where we are, in the context of prices for everything, it's always interesting, Teddy, I was just in Europe, of course, when you were coming for me and having the conversation with Europeans, man, they laugh at the notion that we're overpaying for Crude when, boy, their costs of Crude are price number one in a liter and it's just so much more expensive than what we're paying in general. But on a shorter term basis, let's say, because we got shorter term traders out there, we got traders out there trading, whether it's Crude even on an intraday basis, what do you think of Lightspeak Crude at like $90 right now? It's been quite a run from 78 bucks, let alone the run we had from $67, less than three months ago. Do you see some action here? You're looking for a plateau around 90. You're thinking maybe a test at $84 high from August. What do you think of Crude at $90 right now? I kind of like it where it's at right now. I think you could see a correction back to probably maybe around 80. I don't think you'll touch the $70 or any upper 70 area for a while. I think right now, especially unless you see a big pullback in yields, if that happens, if all of a sudden the Fed stops being hawkish and puts on not just a pause but has a real dovish outlook for the next like, somewhere in the next six months, I think you might see a short term correction. I mean, Crude has had a nice run up over the past, like what is it? Since the end of August, we were at 77, you're looking at a $13 move, which is really not necessarily demand driven. It's more kind of event driven. So once we have the demand factor and if we have to watch while supply goes, we're in the fall, we're switching the refinery for the way we process Crude in this country, that always causes an uptick in oil as well. So I think it's gonna be hard to see the market get below 80 bucks a barrel. And even if it does, I would be in a buy break posture. I would be very careful selling into those lows. I think you're out really long-term and short-term is gonna be pushing back above 100. We got a question in the Tigers, Dan Teddy. Great. He's talking about the China slowdown. Do you see, how do you see the China slowdown potentially impacting the US dollar is the question? You got any insight into that? Well, actually the China slowdown is kind of an interesting thing because of the way bricks are starting to come into play. And I think that if you see, the way I see it is like this, inflation has come to the point where, everyone's watching their pocketbook across America. And I've been joking about little Joey getting screwed at Christmas this year. It's gonna happen. And here's the thing is, if little Joey doesn't get his GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip, where does that come from? It comes from China. That means China's not making those GI Joes. I mean, it's a simplified situation, but that's really expands into everything. And I think that's gonna give strength to the dollar in the short run. So, I'm there. I love it, man. Teddy, I appreciate it as always. We look forward to talking next Wednesday, and I look forward to the options webinar next Wednesday as well, man. We'll talk to you next Wednesday, brother. Thanks, Tommy. Have a good one. Thanks. Folks, we'll be right back. Stay tuned. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the Opening Call newsletter at TFNN.com. The Opening Call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the Opening Call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything, from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today, TFNN.com, educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. It's been a fast hour, man. It's gonna be a quick day as we approach 2 p.m. Eastern time. We got a man Basil Chapman coming up next. We got, of course, our man Larry Pezzavento at 11. We got Fast Market from the Schwab Network with Kevin Hinks. They'll be talking about what? FedEx. They're talking about Darden Restaurants in there as well. And then we have our man Steve Rhodes coming up. We got my dad, Tom O'Brien, live programming throughout the day. And it's an important day, folks. S&P's holding up pretty well right now, right? I saw the sell-off yesterday. I said, oh, is this market gonna get a little worried? No, it's not worried, man. This market relentless right now, but we'll see. Today's an important day. Chairman Powell, he's sipping his coffee this morning, man. He's getting ready for the main event at 2.30, all eyes on the chairman. We'll see where we go from there. And yeah, let's check around to some of the thanks docs as we kick things off. Amazon shares up about 8th, 10th percent. They almost get it all back yet from yesterday. You're talking about Disney shares, not the same story, man. Disney down again on the heels of them spending more capital, $60 billion, I think was the number over 10 years for their parks and cruises. As a longer-term investor in Disney, you should like that number, though, folks, because streaming's a battle, but Disney, they only battle with themselves when it comes to Disney World, man. There is only one Disney World. They're gonna make sure that they keep that business going, even if it means spending some capital over the next 10 years. We jump around to Microsoft shares this morning. Up about a 10th of a percent right now, Google shares down about 2, 10th percent. FedEx, ahead of their earnings tonight, accelerating higher. FedEx up 1.3 percent at $253.27. We jumped to notes and bonds. And you're just chopping around right now, sitting at about $109.13, a little bit higher price, but all things considered, right where we are, almost to the tick when I began the program, at $109.13. So folks, check out Teddy's webinar. Coming up next week, I talked about it in terms of we're talking about capitalizing on time with calendar stock options spreads, and this is one of the ones that I really gotta wrap my head around, man. I understand it, okay? But just looking for the definition, if you don't understand it, that's what your profit loss looks like on a long calendar spread. You got two different expiration dates in terms of what you're playing in there. You can roll some of those options. So he's gonna have plenty to talk about, man. You wanna understand this methodology, get in there, sign up now, reserve your spot. It will be archived and I'm looking forward to it next week as well. Folks, stay tuned. It's Fed Day. Don't go away. We got Basil coming up next. We'll talk to you tomorrow. Have a great one, folks.