 Welcome back. It's still the breakfast in plus CV Africa. We are set for a final conversation this morning. And of course, as you may have already have had Nigeria's headline inflation rose to twenty one point nine one percent in February I made a Naira redesign policy that was meant to mop up cash and club access currency circulation According to the organized private sector in the country the central bank of Nigeria's Naira Redesign policy has contributed to a Naira crisis that has driven inflation to record highs Nigeria's twenty one point nine one percent inflation rate for February is the highest the country has experienced in 18 years Now data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that this is a second consecutive month Inflation is rising in the year after it fell in December 2022 after an 11 month rise in January inflation rose to 21.82% from the twenty one point three four percent that was recorded in 2022 and the NBS on Wednesday disclosed that increases in the price of bread cereal rent potatoes yam tubers Vegetables and meat drove inflation up in the month of February Obuna okuku is an investment and economic development expert and he's a guest for this conversation Right here on the breakfast. He joins us Vazum from Abuja Obuna okuku. Good morning to you. Thank you for your time Yeah, thank you so much for having me Some experts believe that Nigeria's current inflation figure is hugely understated and and they point to You know the the fundamental Details used to calculate this this inflation has been outdated and they feel that the inflation Probably could be close to if not more than what we have in neighboring countries who are experienced in 50 in inflation figures in the in the 50 percentile ring and What I would you agree with this? Of course, I will but when it comes to data Collation There are different systems that you can use it depending on what you want to achieve Now if the data that you're using is you know is outdated or there are more Recent figures you should use and you Carefully decide not to use those figures. You can't get there'll be no accuracy in You know in your in your in your output at the end of the day. So what happens is I mean, we don't even need to go far. I mean look at the figures Look at this go to the market what you bought stuff for last year and this year and they comparable They are not so if you do the percentage yourself with that waiting for MBS the reality will be there You know looking at you. So it's obvious. I am if I've said it a lot of other Institutions have said it and I think MBS should also begin to Reconceal, you know, the you know System that they're using to You know to calibrate our our GDP figures. I think that's something not right I agree. Oh, all right. You've said it all the IMF said this, you know, that we are Nigeria has a 52% inflation and not the 21% they're talking about and I mean bread You know a year ago two years ago was costing about a 300 a loaf of bread sliced bread That is not a giga bread about 300 now went to 400 now five now you buy a slice bed for not less than 800 now You know the last type the fancy type, you know, it's I think you've said it Oh, okay If you look at the a giga bread to the price the price of a giga bread would definitely would have gone up because I mean The the flower that they use, you know It's been imported and then the cost of a week all of all of those things have gone up and then the the effects the effects issues that we've had the high cost of our You know our you know being able to purchase foreign currency because some of these things we import them Hi, so there's been no two ways about it is that we know simple, you know, I repeat You don't need them as to say I tell you that things have gone, you know Oh, you know, even up to 100% Organized private sector is is claiming that the Monetary policy of the much touted monetary policy of the central bank of Nigeria Which happens to be the narrow redesign policy and the cash withdrawal limits that these have had a negative effect on the nation's inflation figures and if we listen to what The central bank governor Gordon Miffley has been saying all along the primary reason they are implementing these policies are to strengthen the Naira and to halt, you know the inflation and Probably drive it down, you know the rising inflation So do you agree that the policies have had a negative Effect to what it was intended to to achieve Okay, because I would want to make them anybody didn't look like they don't know what they're doing The reality is I always give this illustration any time I have the opportunity to the fiscal policy managers and the monetary policy managers like a football team The monetary policy managers are defenders and then the fiscal policy guys are the strikers Now the success of a team or victory of a team is more dependent on what the strikers do Than what the defenders do Now if the monetary policy Managers decide to design a program to see how to strengthen the Naira It's simply because fiscal policy managers have not done the right things to make sure that the liquidity the strength of your you know, your legal tender is You know it can participate in the global financial market and give you excellent results So haven't said that so you see when a when a team is being worn now using my illustration with the football team Now what happens is that defenders have to come or when the fiscal when the when the strikers are not striking well You'll notice it's just a not a conscious thing It just happens that the the strike the defenders now begin to push forward to see how they can help Score so that's exactly what has happened. I do this so that everybody would be able to understand what is really going on Now the policy is coming from The the the central bank does not negate the fact that there are still risks risks associated with our economy The decline in oil production viscosity of foreign exchange because we are so much dependent on On on on effects because we are an important dependent country the the public finance The the the the the way we spend our Public resources the inequality when it comes in terms of income and opportunities The the you know, so there's so much. I still Surrounding the economy. So whatever the central bank does might not at any point in time You know solve the problem. It might you see it becomes only let's try to see if this will help So at the end of the you know and and unfortunately this one did not help because we are not producing So if you tighten the echo if you tighten, you know, liquidity if Oh bono cuckoo. I'm sorry. The uh network has inter interrupted what you were saying. I don't know if you can You can see us. I was gonna ask you. Um, so if it's you're saying it's not helped Has it made it worse? Has it probably made it less worse than it could have been if nothing was done Uh, Mr. Cuckoo. Are you there? Yes, I'm here. Okay. Yes. Yes So if you think that the the the monetary policies Of the narrow redesign And then of course the cash withdrawal limits have Not really, you know It's it's not a low a standalone reason why we're not having we're having this inflation Increase but you're talking about the fiscal fiscal side of things But have the policies made things worse Or better is what I'd like to know because we see what's happening as a cash crunch And even if you look at the informal economy, you know, it's suffering massively because they rely on fiscal cash So, I mean and business is slow, you know, people can't can't transfer huge amounts of money Even even to find the the the funds to to to do business abroad. You can't find the funds anymore Banks are slashing what they are given for Allowances for those who are looking for effects You know, people are not doing business anymore because they do not want their funds to be, you know, lost in In transit, you know from one bank to the other electronically. Nobody wants to be a victim of that So people are holding on to their money, you know, so, um Well, you could say that this could could affect, you know, a reduced inflation, but I mean look at everybody is going through a hard time Yeah, that's an in backfire bill. Let me use the word in backfire and I said and I started to describe All the other issues because when a policy backfires, we will not just look at the policy itself Whether it worked or not We need to also, you know, x-ray every other thing within the ecosystem that would have supported the policy So if you if we want to put it, you know, the way it is the policy didn't work well Is right now because, you know, we don't have enough shocks in the economy to help, you know We still have we can't we can monetize You know, people can like you said people can't even, you know, do simple purchases, you know Because they don't have the liquidity in their hands to do that So I imagine people, you know in the in the urban areas who really don't have, you know, the infrastructure to do transfers So a lot of people are going through so much transport. The transport system has actually been hit so much I'm talking about, you know, the within within a city transport system People don't have cash to pay their way home. So people now can you know, people now track So there's a lot of suffering in the economy. So this this the policy needs to be, you know, we need to look at it again All right, and we hear that the banks are now saying they don't have We even the ordinary notes to give out That's by the central banks order Should we say okay, hey guys, this is not working. Let's revert to status quo auntie Of course, if you don't have the ordinary because I mean most of the when you withdraw when you withdraw When there is a change in in currency and then you withdraw old currency The next thing to do is to destroy those currency because I mean it becomes, you know It doesn't help the economy anymore. It becomes piece of paper So if the if the central bank if what you're saying is that they've gone ahead to destroy this before the The whole supreme court judgment and before, you know, trying to reverse the policy So that becomes an you know, that becomes another catalogue fish And then what we need to do is to ask them questions about what about bringing More of this the new notes so that we can we can circulate more of the new notes, you know within the system Ah brother of issues that Don't know when they they will be resolved. I think Nigeria has never had a this bad in its entire history in terms of not just the the inconsistencies of the policies and The failure of policy, but the utter confusion because we don't know what is going on anymore I don't even know So it started from when, you know, when the minister of finance when the finance minister when finance minister said I didn't know anything about the military design. I was the big I was thinking about I was a bit shocked at the world What would the finance minister not know about the military design? So it goes to show that, you know, people don't um, there's no there's no, um, they're not working together So when people who are supposed to be working together are not working together. So these things are You know about, you know, you know clear. All right We don't even know who is calling the shots anymore. Hey here. We don't know who is even in charge Um, thank you so much. Good night. Koko for your time. Koko for your time. We appreciate it. Thank you very much All right. All right, thanks for having me and that's the size of our package and news brief is up next But please uh, do remember you can follow us on social media plus tv afghan facebook twitter and instagram And indeed plus tv afghan lifestyle on youtube as well as plus tv afghan youtube My name is kofi Bartels. We return tomorrow with more on the breakfast. 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