 Welcome to American Issues, Take One. I'm Tim Apachele, your host. And for today's title, it's Next Move USA, EU to Counter Putin's Threats. October is the 60th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis. The world came very close to an all out war between the United States and USSR, the Soviet Union, potentially was gonna involve the use of nuclear weapons. That didn't happen, thank God. But fast forward to 60 years later and we have the president of Russia, who not only is stable rattling, but he seems to be raising the stakes and implying that limited tactical nuclear weapons may be used in order to preserve Russia's sovereignty. His misperceived sovereignty, specifically for the four regions in Ukraine that he annexed unlawfully, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kyrgyzstan and Zaporizhia. Those four territories were formally adopted by the Russian government to say they now belong to Russia and they are Russian territory. And should any moves be to dislodge Russia from those areas may be met with severe limited tactical nukes. So that's where we are today. Vladimir Putin seems to be putting himself in a corner that he can't extract himself out of and he seems to be doing it on purpose. So with that, I'd like to introduce my guests. I'd like to introduce our special guests, Chuck Crumpton. Thank you Chuck for appearing. And of course, my co-host, Jay Fidel. Good morning gentlemen. Good morning. Yeah. Chuck, to you on this first question. As I just mentioned in the intro, Vladimir Putin seems to be raising the stakes and putting himself more and more into a corner. At what point does the United States and the European Union stop referring to it as saber-rattling and start to realize that maybe he is serious about using limited tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine? It's a great question, Tim. I think one of the things is because there's so much in the way of political dimensions to this and political powers in there, you can't just treat the EU as one entity. You've got Hungary, Turkey, now Italy, even England with some questions about its choices and directions that didn't used to be there. So first thing I think the EU and the US have to concentrate on three things. One, stay united. Number two, stay committed for the long term. Number three, be consistent. Internally and externally. If they can do that, the message to Putin at least is he knows his enemy is a conglomerate, not divisible. Well, don't you think that Putin, don't you think Putin has already realized that? Certainly I don't think he expected the EU to coalesce around with the United States as fast as they did. And certainly to the degree of commitment that they put forth and the money. Wasn't that a miscalculation on his part to begin with? Sure, but miscalculations don't necessarily come with corrections based on factual information as we've seen in our former president continuing on now to today. He's as delusional as he always was. There's good cause to believe that Putin is no less delusional or narcissistic than our former president. So whether he sees that unified response, whether he's really going to respond to it in a way that acknowledges it as a reality that requires adjustment on his part, those are two completely different questions. Well, I guess my second part B of the question is, what is the best approach now that Putin has basically, he's annexed, again, wrongly annexed these four regions. What's now the best approach to counter Putin's threats? Is it to ignore it and to say it's Saber-Raddling or do we now get more aggressive and come in with more tactics that maybe polarize the two nations? Well, I'll defer to you folks the two things that are essential. One is have defensive strategies in place and at the ready for even the worst case plan B analysis. And number two, continue to with the EU provide extensive committed support for Ukraine's military actions, which are achieving a level of success that not only Putin, but I think most of the rest of the world did not anticipate. All right, yeah, thanks Chuck. JTU, basically the same question is, the beginning of part of this war and it continues that the United States is not giving Ukraine aggressive offensive military weapons such as jets and other offensive weapons. We're still trying to supply them with defensive apparatus. So how does the United States and the EU best now respond to Putin's annexation of the four regions in Ukraine? But more importantly, his more definitive threats of tactical weapon, tactical nuclear weapons, possibly for use. Yeah, I don't think it's a good time to give Ukraine jets that would further escalate the risk. Steady as she goes, just as Chuck says. Steady as she goes, let's not get too excited. This is international terrorism is what it is. It's like the fellow walking in with a vest full of bombs and telling you what he wants and you're supposed to react to it. And he may or may not pull the plug and blow himself up. I think part of this is Putin. I think he's losing it. And he's losing the war. He's losing his own rationality. Part of it is this whole echo chamber thing where who is he really talking to? He's not talking to you or me because I wouldn't change my approach on from what he says. I don't believe him. I think he's just stamping his feet like some seven year old with a tantrum. But he is appealing to countries and autocrats that support him anyway, or maybe that are going in that direction as you mentioned in your opening. And as Chuck mentioned, you have countries that are softer on him these days. And maybe he's playing to them. Maybe he's trying to move the needle with them so that they can speak up in his favor somehow or talk to their populations, their electorates, assuming they still have electorates and try to move right in their countries. Move toward Putin. Is he talking to the world? Is he talking to all of us? It's really interesting. Who's he talking to? I love the reference to John F. Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis because he didn't back down. And he won, not backing down against the Russians. So backing down doesn't seem to be a good option because it's like, we don't pay a random amount of ransom money. It's a matter of policy. This is ransom. If we do, then it'll happen again. And I guess he had some effect the first time he mentioned nuclear weapons because now he's trying it again. And if we give him credence on this, I mean, I don't know which part of the echo chamber, if some part of the echo chamber gives him credence on this, he'll do it again. And that'll be his foreign policy. I threaten, you bend over, I threaten some more. Yeah. Let me interject something. Let me interject this. I mean, we already know that Vladimir Putin has lost face, severe face with the retreat of his armies and this disaster he calls a Ukraine invasion, where he doesn't call that, but that's what it is. Has he now set the stage for him for further embarrassment and loss of face by declaring an annexation of the four regions in Ukraine and it'll be summarily ignored by the weapons that the EU and the USA and everyone gives Ukraine to continue their advances in those four regions. Has he now basically raised the stakes enough that he will lose even more face in front of his generals, politicians and to the Russian people? I think you have to watch the, as Chuck suggested, the playbook for Donald Trump and compare it against the playbook for Putin. And I think it has something to do with doubling down here. It has something to do with, and this is the big word, distraction, changing the subject. You know, I mean, I keep telling you, I grew up in Queens and I know the bullies from the schools and one of the issues aside from insulting everybody was you change the subject. And in fact, there are a lot of lawyers in New York that practice that way. You know, when you're down and out, when you're losing the case, change the subject in every which way. And I think it's clear that he's losing the war in Donbass and that's why he had the referendum, and the world was maybe distracted by the referendum. And now the referendum has been called out as a sham. So he wants to change the subject yet again. So let's bring back the nuclear card. They make, they should make a board game you know, like Monopoly, with all these things that keep repeating themselves, and the distraction card, the nuclear card, you know, the phony referendum card, it'll be a very popular board game. It won't sell in Russia, I'm telling you now. In any event, I think that's what he's doing. And I don't think he's looking to consequences that we would look to because before you get to those consequences, there'll be more distraction. There'll be more doubling down. There'll be more lying. Russians are leaving the country by hundreds of thousands. He's got to change the subject, or he'll be so stark how he is losing. He's really desperate. Look at every direction. Well, and that's the point. I mean, he is desperate, and doesn't that ought to give us pause and concern that a desperate despot has the ability to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine? Well, there are two things that have got to be on his mission list. You know, one is to expand the USSR, or back to the USSR. That's not working, but that's what he wants to do. And the question is whether any of this helps him do that. I doubt it does. The other is the personal agenda, you know, to save his job, to save his reputation. What have you? And blowing up nuclear weapons is not gonna do that. That'd be the answer. Okay. That's not gonna help him at all. In fact, it's gonna, you know, at the end, you said, Chuck, that we should be ready with our own counter-offensive. We are. I guarantee you that. You know, I could not be more affirmative in guaranteeing you that. So that if he does this, we're gonna be escalating. The U.S. is gonna be escalating. Maybe some of the stronger countries in NATO will be escalating. And Putin can't win that. He's a super pariah, even with the Chinese and the Indians and some of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. All the despots are gonna leave his side. They can't possibly support him on that. So he destroys himself. He knows this. He's not stupid. He may be illusional. What did you call it, Chuck? But he's not stupid. Yeah. That's a fact. He is not stupid. Chuck, you know, through all the sanctions, they've had limited success against Russia. But it seems to me that the call-up of 300,000 potential new recruits has struck more of a discord of disharmony, if you will, with the Russian people than ever any of the sanctions have as far as creating a concern of the Russian people. What new tactics should the United States deploy other than the same old sanctions of individuals or their banking accounts or their ability to conduct a swift account transfer? What more effective devastating sanctions can the United States and the EU come up with that will really put Vladimir Putin back on his heels? Well, when you look at Putin's so-called mobilization, at least up to this point in time, it appears that more people have left Russia to avoid it than who have been recruited into it. And you see photography of those who are recruited into it. And there are bowling leagues with people in much better shape than that. So, and they know that they're being sacrificed. So this is high risk, but you have to remember there are three strategies involved here. The initial strategy, the Blitzkrieg, which wasn't a Blitzkrieg and wasn't effective. It was slow plotting and unsuccessful. And in the end, essentially reversed. Now strategy number two, which is, I've got four areas that we're going to take. He gained probably a lot of confidence with the successful annexation of Crimea years ago and thought he could pull that again, maybe on Ukraine as a country. Clearly that's not the case. Can he do it with all or any of these four areas? Strategically, everybody knows ultimately there's going to be a bargaining. Putin's digging in for the four areas to the extent he can or as much of that as he can get. President Zelensky is digging in saying, you don't get any of it. So we've got the lines drawn. And that's getting a lot more attention and a lot more infusion of effort from both sides than the verbal references to possible all weapons. Okay, we'll thread it nuclear. Let me go in a different direction on this. We have countries still supporting Russia through purchases of either energy products or other products. They're basically propping up the ruble and they're helping Russia skirt around a lot of these sanctions. China comes to mind, India comes to mind. South African nations come to mind. Should the United States or the EU start exerting a lot more pressure on those nations than we previously have? Chuck? Probably not unless and until we need to. Because I'm sure that the US intelligence which is one of our stronger concerted efforts and forces has determined the impact on the Russian economy. In addition to that, when you impose a threatened mobilization of people who are clearly unqualified and unwilling for military service at the same time, you've got a double whammy effect going on there. So he may be losing support both economically as well as politically and in terms of popularity and in the population of Russia. So if you look at China, India, even the EU, there are some continuing purchases of Russian fuel products and energy products, but the support for Russia militarily and politically have not come. You don't hear China or India. And certainly not any of the EU nations saying he's doing the right thing, we support him, we will be there to back him up. None of the things like Biden saying, China, you go after Taiwan, you're gonna have to deal with us, we will be there. Okay. So look at what's missing from the places where he needs that support. Okay, thank you. Jay, I'm gonna kind of stick with the same question with you and that is, should the United States and EU countries start tamping down the screws on those countries, whether they broadcast it or not, that are still assisting Russia, either less than the sanctions or completely get around the sanctions? Should we start looking at them and start saying, you're part of the problem? The sanctions are not working as intended because you still and are continuing to support Russia's and their economy through purchases. What should the United States do about ratcheting up sanctions with those countries? Or should they? I think all the factors point to the larger phenomenon here and that is that he's falling on his own sword. And that if we wait a little longer with the combination of the sanctions we have now and his pariah status in the world, that word is gonna get out on the war crimes. It is getting out, you hear more and more about that. And we at Think Tech, we hear more and more about that. It's everywhere, the talk of the war crimes. This is not good for him. And people in Russia, leaving Russia, all these things are resulting in the loss of status influence and so forth in the world community. However, the question is, what else can we do? Because the sanctions are, they're not immediate, they're intermediate and they may not have the effect that we hoped for, we in Europe hoped for at the inception of this thing. So if we wanted to turn up the jets for one thing, we would find ways to deliver energy even in the winter, especially in the winter. To countries where the people are screaming for energy, they're gonna get cold and soon, a matter of weeks, a crunch there. And so, the problem with liquid natural gas is that we have it, we have gobs of it, they don't have receiving infrastructure, say in Germany and the countries around Germany. If we could somehow accelerate that, that would help because you wouldn't have him undermining, national resolve in some of these countries. But the other thing is, and I really take your point about trying to put some influence on the countries that are soft on him. And you can do that in any way you want, you know? You can have somebody from our State Department talk to somebody from their State Department say, you know, this is gonna be over not too long and the US is gonna be in the cat bird on this and Putin's gonna be in the doghouse and who do you wanna invest with? You know, you don't want us to be mad at you, come on. How about a little kukua here? And I think in some countries that would work swell. In other countries, you have to move maybe more aggressively. In some countries, you know, make a deal, make a deal for energy, make a deal for food, make it transactional. And you could ply them away from Russia. I think India is a good example of that. India is not wedded to Russia. And, you know, India has a soft spot for the United States, it always did, despite Modi's attitudes, which I don't favor. And so, you know, I think there are various solutions with various countries and a nuanced approach by the State Department could put the heat on not all at the same time, not all in the same way, but they could turn the jets tighter, harder, hotter for Putin that way. And I think in the long term, if they're not doing that already, that's exactly what they should do. So is this a wait-and-see game? Cause you, like someone said, I think it was you, Jay, he's already falling on his own sword. So is this a wait-and-see game or no, we don't have time to wait anymore? Putin's ratcheting up the demands and the threats. So now's the time to get these nations like India or China or whatever. Now is the time to use that ratchet effect rather than later. This whole thing is asymmetric. It's asymmetric on his part. You know, like for example, where he does hacking in a given country is softening them up, you know? He's working on every level he can. He's working on trying to get the, you know, the government here in the United States to go soft on him. And we can talk about that tomorrow. But, you know, bottom line is it's asymmetric on his part and it should certainly be asymmetric on our part. That's the nature of war today. So yes, I think he's falling on his own sword. Yes, you know, the combination of things including his own mistakes are hurting him, you know, in very profound ways. But that doesn't mean we should sit and wait. It means we should try other things in a soft, modulated way, perhaps in a smart power, soft power approach, country by country, a political official by political official. We should always keep on moving and we should make it just as asymmetric as he is. Okay, there you go. You missed your opportunity to work for the State Department, by the way. I like your tactics. Chuck, winter is coming in. It's October, when winter is coming soon to Eastern Europe. Do things slow down? And all winter campaigns kind of basically come to a trickling halt. With that halt, we probably won't have any more Ukraine announcements of achievements and captured territory that Russia once held. So lack of really great news, because winter's here and everyone's hunkering down. How does the resolve go? How does the resolve from the United States and the EU during the winter months stay the same, only increase with more funding or does that wane? It's a great question. I would not underestimate President Zelensky and Ukraine, their momentum and their initiative and their dedication. And think of the Green Bay Packers and the frozen tundra. If they get on that turf at the end of the pro football season, they're really hard to beat. They're gonna press that advantage. So you don't think winter, at all, blunts, Ukrainians advanced? Sorry? You don't think necessarily winter, the winter weather will blunt, Ukrainians advance into these four regions that Russia now says is theirs. The weather certainly has the impact to make a difference, but whether it shifts the momentum away from Ukraine toward Russia or toward a stalemate, I wouldn't assume that. The other thing to remember is that Putin's delusions and miscalculations and poor strategies have probably done more for Joe Biden and the Democrats than they possibly could have or anyone possibly could have. His foreign policy is essentially so sacrosanct that he's gotten everything he's asked for the Ukrainian military support in the billions and billions of dollars. And that appears to continue to be the case. So I wouldn't underestimate that either. Will that make a difference in a month? It may or may not. I am not sure why the Democrats are not pressing that foreign policy, foreign strategy advantage that they clearly have, but it's there. I mean, it seems like it seems on an overall basis the nation still and does support the support of Ukraine. And that's a good question you bring to the tables. Why hasn't the Biden administration kind of taken advantage of that popularity? Okay, we're all almost out of time, but I have to ask this question, Jay, to you. What are your predictions for the Ukraine conflict? This war that was created by Vladimir Putin for no reason, but other than his own ego and illusions of grandeur. What's your prediction in the next six months? 12 months? You know, a few days ago, can't remember the channel, might have been BBC, but they had Mrs. Zelensky on for an interview. That was actually 60 minutes. Yeah, thank you. And my goodness, if you saw that, it would make your heart run fast. She was not only an extraordinary, classy, classy woman. She was so smart, so focused, so with her husband. I mean, if you gauge a man's success in the world by how well his wife supports him, this was an example of a wife who supports her husband. If somehow it was easier to understand Zelensky seeing this interview and seeing her comment on things. She was unrestrained. She was completely informed. She was brilliant and she was a great communicator. I think she was part of his TV team. What he was doing and she was, yes. I think she was the writer. Okay, talking about a fantastic woman. Okay, then fast forward to all of these battlefield commanders. And it's not just one person. It's not just one PR trained spokesman for the Ukrainian army. It's one after the other over and over different people. An assortment, an unending random supply of battlefield commanders talking about their state of mind and what they see happening and how they deal with their own success or maybe their own aspirations. And you say, gee, where do they get these guys? These are really classy guys. They're intelligent, they're informed, they're thoughtful, they're reasonable. And then you talk to the people who, we talked to on Think Deck. You talk to the people, for example, with Project Expedite Justice in Kiev just a few days ago, a fellow named Dmitry Kovale. This guy was brilliant. He was an academician. I don't know the subject of his academic studies, but he was a PhD or a PhD candidate. And he decided he was gonna help the Ukrainian people. So he joined an organization that was helping them. And he consults, he said, with the Ukrainian government. Very classy, very classy. And it's one after the other like that. I mean, we are finding the smartest, most reasonable, thoughtful, careful, tactical people. And it was not just, he was just not just waving a flag. He was telling, he was answering our questions in the most thoughtful way. And I said to myself, gee, you get a whole sample of these Ukrainians looking into the future, trying to figure out where they are, what they need to do, comparing their own abilities against the Russian abilities, comparing their own governmental solidarity with the Russian lack of solidarity. And you say that in the end, Ukraine really has some talent and they have some integrity, even as regards the battlefield, the madness of battlefield operation. So when I come to this, you have to judge the future on how strong these people are. They are very strong. And assuming for a moment, and I'll go along with for this discussion with Chuck's optimism that the United States will continue to support them. And we can discuss that more tomorrow, but assuming the United States keep supporting them at the same level, nothing fancy, no fighter jets, just these good missiles. I think that in the end, the people in Russia will not support him. They will leave the country. They will take the risk of going to jail. There are hundreds of thousands or even over a million people in jail now and he's arrested. He's breaking his own political back. He's a pariah not only in the global sense, but in his own country. This is not a good thing for him. And I think that he's not gonna use nuclear weapons. That's just me. Me and John F. Kennedy, the two of us, somebody comes out of the wings now and says, J, whatever you are, you're no JFK. But I happen to agree with JFK. So I think the Ukrainians really are going to have the edge because it's a moral, ultimately a moral question. And ultimately it's a question of whether autocrats can prevail. And if we find in the world today that autocrats can prevail, if that's where the world's growing well, the Ukrainians have a hard time. But assuming that they're either stable, not moving further to the right in any great degree, I think the Ukrainians will prevail and they will have their country. All right. I don't know anyone would say that eight months ago, but your prediction is a good one and I hope it comes true. Chuck, same question to you. Your prediction is what we may see in the next six months, 12 months in the Ukraine war. Well, clearly Putin has not learned the Vietnam lesson, which is if you take on people to try and displace them from their homeland, they will outlive you, they will outlast you. And if they get sufficient resources, even if it's much less than you have, but enough to be able to hold their ground, they will rely on that ability to outlive and outlast you. They are in for the interminably long haul. Putin cannot afford to be, he's already reaching into unqualified and resistant people in his own country to be able to feed them into that conflict. Those days have to be numbered. I agree with Jay. All right. Thank you for your predictions. We've run out of time. I'd like to thank my special extraordinary guests, Chuck Crumpton, and of course my extra special, extraordinary co-host, Jay Fidel. Won't you join us next week for American Issues Take One? I'm Tim Appichelle, your host. And don't forget to tune in tomorrow for American Issues Take Two with Jay Fidel. And until then, much aloha to all of you. Thank you so much for watching Think Tech Hawaii. If you like what we do, please like us and click the subscribe button on YouTube and the follow button on Vimeo. You can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and LinkedIn, and donate to us at thinktechhawaii.com. Mahalo.