 Hello and welcome to the weekly market update with me David Madden today's date is Monday the 22nd of July 2019 and the time has just gone 12 10 for this summer time And it's been a broadly positive start to European stock markets this week this week The Foxy 100 is outperforming tensions in the Middle East in relation to the Iranian regime seizing a UK tanker has Driven up the energy market the oil oil market has been pushed higher and that in turn has given a nice boost to likes of BP and Waldo Chell and it is we're pointing out the Foxy 100 as far as European index is concerned has a relatively large amount relatively high constituents constituents constituents of oil and gas and energy stocks of the footsies doing well on the back of that The Euro sonic your markets are also a bit hard This morning this afternoon rather Later this week we have the European Central Bank and there is growing chatter and speculation that the European Central Bank might look to This week other cutting dress rates or even just use dovish language to set the tone and set the foundations for a possible rate cut in September and obviously looking ahead on To the week after the next week the very end of July There's still speculation didn't do in the rounds at the Federal Reserve are going to have some sort of my Interest rate cut, you know Fed is around the side of whether it's going to be a zero point five percent interest rate cut or perhaps it's going to be a Zero point two five percent or a half percent cut either way nonetheless the speculation is doing the rounds And it's given a nice boost to global stock markets Reporting season particularly in the US is getting very much underway I'll even a number of companies particularly US Bank support last week and this week We will be heading all of big US tech companies, which you talk about in one second now So let's take a look quickly at the week ahead and week ahead can be found on our website Save some markets calm on their news and analysis You'll find the bulk of the updates that we do we get posted to the to the To this section of our website and the weekend article can be found here So tomorrow it's quite likely that we will know the result of the Tory leadership race I mean and in turn find out who the next Prime Minister of the UK is going to be it's looking like a Boris Johnson Tomorrow we have first-half figures from fever three. They are the soft drinks producer on Wednesday second quarter numbers from Tesla and We have French and German services and manufacturing PMI people our reports on Wednesday also Manufacturing numbers from the US on Wednesday On we have second quarter figures from Facebook at Wednesday on Wednesday. We also have first-half figures from Metro Bank Thursday, we have the European center bank million that I was talking about On Thursday, we have second quarter figures from Amazon and on Friday We have second second quarter GDP numbers from the US it's going down here take a quick look Other major companies that reporting during the week can a pillar of numbers have numbers out have to do forward ITV of first-half figures on Wednesday On Thursday, we have 3m and we have alphabet the owner of Google We have Intel as well Unilever on Thursday as well here in the UK and on Friday. We have McDonald's and McDonald's and right move as well as Twitter as well So quite a number of corporate updates to be focused on later on this week But like I say, you know what's been really moving the markets the last few weeks has been the chatter about the Fed reserve Potentially cutting interest rates at the back end of this month and it's also reporting out that you know the ECB Might look to have a bit of a dovish move as well So we take a look now at some of the major markets starting off with the FTSE 100 So what about what I'm about to kind of say across the FTSE the DAX the S&P 500 and the Dow is all reasonably similar in that They've all had a terrific 29 2019 Earlier this this month the FTSE hit a level of last seen in August last year But we have drifted a small bit lower But notice how we still managed to hold above this line here in around 7470 was going to get the previous high and kind of all support in around here And essentially how we hold above that metric is likely that the wider up our trend Could continue and you know if you take out this region here North all the seven thousand six hundred we could be looking at it up towards this area here in a seven thousand seven hundred and ninety four And even if you do drop below this given that we've had a 30 solid up our trend Try 2019 we could see support come into play in around this area this blue line here They fit the moving average and that comes into play in around seven thousand three hundred and ninety It's only really if you have a size of break below this this yellow line here Waterly moving average which comes to play at seven thousand three hundred and fifty one It's only if you have a size of break below that because then we get we get Begin to think you know we could be heading back down towards seven thousand two hundred or perhaps this red line here The turn the moving average seven thousand one hundred and sixty five But notice how the puts a hundred is comfortably above it's fifty day moving average I'll be referencing that in the DAX the S&P and the now So with the DAX similar situation to the footsie Had a multi-month high in July granted has drifted a bit lower But the wider upward trend of 2019 is still very much in play We're sitting we're sitting above the fifth day moving average which comes into play at twelve thousand two hundred and eleven And essentially while we will hold above that metric It's likely that the wider upward trend is going to continue and if you press on higher from here We could be looking at directly this this area Which we test in that area at twelve thousand four hundred and sixty and if you go beyond that you can really get retesting The recent highs at twelve thousand six hundred and sixty And a movie on that could take us back up toward this area here a level last seen in last July last year at twelve thousand eight hundred and eighty seven And even if you do drop below the fifth day moving average support could be found from this area here in around the kind of psychology Important twelve thousand mark and not only is twelve thousand the big psychological number It's also sort of coincides with the water to move the average this yellow line here Which comes into play just north of twelve thousand and you can see that metric did manage to sort of active support Just slightly below us, but they managed to hold above it on a daily basis in early June We've not too long ago. We had all time highs on the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 So even before we open the chart I've basically Really tells you can everything needs to know about sentiment in the in the major US market So all time highs were achieved only last week get pulled back ever so slightly If you look at how much of a positive round we've had throughout 2019 Binding that it has been a popular strategy granted there has been locations such as here We've where we've had slides with pullbacks, but more recently the pullbacks haven't actually been haven't been too deep So if the wider upper trend continues, I do going to retest the recent highs in around twelve thousand seven twelve, sorry apologies twenty seven thousand four hundred in around here We could be looking up heading towards numbers like twenty seven thousand five hundred six hundred seven hundred So while that's forth because obviously if you were to get a print new all-time highs We would be in on Charter territory If you manage to drift a bit lower from here support could be found from this area here in around from say 12 I'm sorry 26 thousand eight hundred down toward this line here in around 26 thousand six hundred and fifty eight We can see there's a bit of consolidation in that region before so makes it more likely I will be able to see support come into play should we drift lower and even if you drop below that Support can be found from this district in here in around twenty six thousand four hundred and notice how the Effective moving average this blue line here Active support in the few occasions in the middle of June and if a metric is active support in the past It makes it more likely it will do so in the future, but obviously there are no guarantees Taking a look at what's going on on the broader S&P 500 Similar situation to the Dow Jones a record of achieved last Monday the wider upper trend is not very much intact If you get it if the you look to kind of push on higher and retest The reason why is you could be looking at our getting three thousand back beyond that could take us up towards Three thousand and twenty and if you go beyond that we could be looking up towards three thousand and thirty three thousand and forty and so on and so forth If I do about to drift lower from home from here support could be found from this area here in around 2952 or perhaps even from this region here in around two thousand nine hundred ten or even maybe down to two thousand nine hundred itself Once again, notice how the S&P 500 is comfortably above its fifth degree of the average and the reason why I referenced it on all the major indices is because According to Dow theory the averages must confirm each other So this case the indices must confirm each other whereby if they're all comfortably above their respective fifth-day moving averages It makes it more likely that they will continue to remain above their respective if the day moving averages obviously their own guarantees It just makes it makes it overall Bullish move in those US and European equity markets more likely to continue Take a look now. What's going on in gold? So it's a bit of an unusual scenario whereby Gold is often Historically being a bit of a flight to flight to quality play a risk-off play But because some of the move some so because must be going to drive in some of this equity market valley Particularly the US equity market valley has been the perception that the Federal Reserve are going to cut rates That's putting pressure on the US dollar and in turn. That's also given gold the nice boo So gold a level fresh six-year-high only on Friday. So once again, you know the trend is very much an upward trend The sentiment is clearly very bullish We have managed to be kind of sitting up quite about a choppy trading in the last few weeks But the upper traders that are very much intact and if you do manage to drift a bit lower In running in a 1410 or the kind of psychologically important 4,000 mark might act as support and even if you do drop below 4,800 this region here in around 30 80 30 82 might act as support If you continue to press on higher from here, it's And you know create fresh multi-year highs. We could be getting a target in this region here in around 1485 and if you go below Beyond rather if you go beyond 1485 it could be a target in the kind of psychological important 1500 and then if you go beyond that you can be heading towards 1600 I mentioned the volatility in the oil market at the beginning of the video. I'll take a quick look now What's going on a branch? so even though We've got a fairly brought positive boots about 2019 in the last few months I'll go the oil market has been in a fairly I think broadly speaking been bearish Move forward in the last few months and notice how Even though it was showing signs of positivity whereby we see the founder of a base in around here north of 60 bucks per barrel You gotta be that we had one higher high be the higher low in another higher high But we've had a sharp move to the downside and we can see that we managed to create a lower low here So while we remain south of this yellow line here the one of the movie average at 67 It's about 86 it's likely we could see further pressure on the on the on the bridge market And if you manage to press on below from here We could be looking at retesting the lows of mid-June in around 60 dollars and 30 cents And if you put upon the flip side if you do manage to retake the read take out the reason highs take out We wouldn't be moving average this area here We could be looking at heading up towards highs of late May in around 70 70 dollars Seven dollars spot 63, and if you go beyond that you could be get target in this region here in around 73 spot 60 similar picture on WTI for my mate for most 2019 and quite size the rally but then began a fairly deep correction series of lower lows and lower highs We could see here similar situation the Brent whereby we had the higher high with a higher low another higher highs So things were looking quite positive, but the market managed to drive lower the lows of Mid-July managed to take out the lows of early July. So things are still looking a bit negative for the old market I Think in if you look too bad if you can essentially remain below this region here The water will be average in around 59 spot 16 if you hold below that It's like that. We could see further for the losses we made on the old market I should you press on lower from here You could make a retesting the kind of 54 area here and move below that could take us back down towards Kind of you know 51 or just below under 51 down here If though the wider upper trend has been a play the wider move of 2013 Reemerges and we can press on higher from here. I could take out the recent highs in around $60 and 84 cents in on this area here We could be looking at retesting this area in around $64 itself and beyond that I'll back up towards at 66 Taking a look now. I'll cut out a couple currency pairs Euro versus the US dollar So the broader Negative move in the euro versus the US dollar 2019 is very much a play granted We did have a brief period at the end of June with the Euro back above. It's dirty We're average but we've been probably been below since and we seem to have been finding a bit of a floor In around the kind of 112 area You haven't been any moves are any serious progress to the upside but the 112 area does seem to be acting as A bit of a floor for now and should we take should we go below the floor? Not read the 112 area. We covered it You're targeting this region here in at one spot 1110 and a move below that could take us back down to the Cyclades important 110 mark If you manage to press on higher keep an eye for the journey moving average this red line here in at one spot 1314 and if you go beyond that we could make your targeting They kind of won 14 region and in order to really to kind of the shake off the negative trend of the last few months or the last Say well at six of months. We really would need to be going to take an out The highs of June before we could then become more confident at the wider downward trend is is there is That has been taken out has been the gated And then and then should that be the case we're going to be retesting this area in one spot fourteen forty eight And the euro versus sorry British bound versus the US dollar We've seen solid downward trend in recent months series of lower lows and lower highs We fortunately probably want to hold below the kind of one spot twenty six area It's likely we could see further pressure on the end pound versus you a starter I should not should even take out the recent lows here We could really be heading back down towards one one spot twenty three sixty five and even if it unless you actually take up one twenty six This area here We did the bearish overall bearish move is likely to continue, but should we go north on one twenty six We could really be heading back up toward the kind of the one twenty eight region And then a movie on that might take us back up towards the dirty movie average We can see in a few occasions like that's going to support and resistance A few months ago, so it makes it more likely that the metric will do so in the future That's all for me this week If you've any comments to make in this video or any of the other videos we've made here at CMC markets Please feel free to leave a review on your views. Thank you very much