 Our study proposes a quantitative approach to select ICU occupancy thresholds that can help prevent overcrowding in ICUs during the COVID-19 pandemic. This approach takes into account the uncertainty in the model parameters and the different mitigation strategies available. It also considers the availability of ICU beds and the duration of intensified mitigation. This article was authored by Manuela Rungi, Rhys A. K. Richardson, Patrick A. Clay and others.