 Welcome to the weather forecast for the week beginning Wednesday, June 3rd 2020 I'm chief meteorologist John Mansworth for Longmont Public Media Saturday night, we have a full moon with the moon rising at sunset and setting at sunrise in the hour for about in the sky for about 10 hours We're gonna start things a little backwards this week and look at the climatology and Then get into the day-to-day weather Look in the drought Conditions it has been a while since we've had any significant rain fall in the southern half of the state Especially Southwest as you can see so we have varying degrees of drought conditions All the way down to the New Mexico border with extreme drought northern Colorado. We're still doing fine up here We've been getting some good shots of water Speaking of good shots of water We can take a look back at the month of May and the total amount of water that fell through that time around Longmont for Collins East of Denver and east of Colorado Springs out on the Northeast Plains a widespread two to three inches and many places getting even four and five inches in a few spots more the northern mountains and the western slopes are a little drier with half inch to a couple inches and overall and southwestern Colorado still quite dry with just trace of rain or 10th of an inch quarter inch not much So hopefully we'll see That change. Let's take a look also starting with a Overview of the week because there's a really clear signal here of lots of heat temperatures in the low to mid 90s Very warm night time temperatures with a cool down coming next week our wettest days are Wednesday today and The video goes up and Saturday night Still the chances of rain are not great looking at the GFS ensemble normal temperatures are High for red lows for blue starting Wednesday here You can see further the next five six days Temperatures are far above normal especially the nighttime temperatures look at the gap between normal and the expected lows It's not until we begin next week that we really see that drop off. There's our Saturday Chance of showers the Wednesday chance of showers aren't showing up in the GFS It may just be that sphere weather little dry line setup will materialize east of I-25 and Skip one month and for Collins Denver for the most part next week more showers, but that's a long ways out Water vapor satellite Image shows lots of moisture Streaming out of a low off of the California coast up into the mountains and planes We have this interesting low down here. This is being investigated for tropical development This certainly could become a tropical storm or hurricane moving up. We'll take a look at that in just a moment And we have a big high pressure system with a large strong ridge Right about over Colorado what we see is where you have a upper-air ridge the Tropical systems like to go up inside. They don't Do well in an environment where the air is moving quickly at different directions and different speeds with height in the atmosphere They like the big stagnant High pressure systems where there's very little Wind shear aloft Looking at moisture if you take a look at the Longmont leader discussion over the past few days We've had a lot of moisture in The inner Mountain West the greens are precipitatable water This is a model prediction of how much moisture could be squeezed out of the atmosphere and say a really good thunderstorm And it's definitely dropped here. We have seen more browns here and white colors showing Below normal precipitatable water a lot down here and an awful lot in the Gulf with that Tropical development happening, but there is a little flow from the Gulf and from the Pacific into the West still For Wednesday we have a very weak quasi stationary front draped around here a little low Not very strong sitting in southwest Kansas So it gives you a little bit of a surface focus and if you get some support above the moisture around you might see some Weather and some of that might be severe Right now the storm prediction center out of Norman has a marginal chance of severe weather So it's for hail and high winds damaging winds the thunderstorms And it's just a few miles east of Longmont east of I-25 until you're up around the Cheyenne area And that can certainly change. It's still a day away For Friday and the rest of the week this ridge just continues to be the monster So this is hasn't moved at all from what we saw in the Satellite image from Tuesday our trough in the West is moving in just a little bit But overall this pattern is not changing much Our low down here in the Gulf if it gets a name by this point Sorry possible is getting its act together getting a little stronger nice closed circulation aloft here With that giant ridge dominating the nation. We have very warm above normal temperatures Oranges and reds here are temperatures above normal blues our temperatures below normal So this is not actual temperature just easier to see departure from normal and it's pretty Much baking from Maine to California just areas where you have a lot more moisture Down here in the Gulf and a little cool air up in Canada. That's about it So over the next five days the precipitation we're looking at well We do see some rain in the mountains We expect some thunderstorm activity to give up to an inch or two and a few lucky spots So a lot of the southern Counties maybe get a quarter inch or half inch. That's better than nothing So we'll be we'll be happy with that right around here. We're sticking around a quarter inch or less and Up here in Nebraska. You see some significant Springtime thunderstorm water totals over the next 10 days We bump up to quarter inch to half inch territory Mountains don't really change a lot more rain up here in Nebraska and Wyoming Not a really big Change in incoming water for the next 10 days Our next change does come Monday Tuesday next week as That trough in the West finally gets our lower enforcement and starts to move in now We're on the uphill side of the trough and we have cool air coming in so we should see more stormy activity And that's what we saw on the GFS ensemble before This is Tuesday next week and here's our low remnant from whatever storm Forms down here in the Gulf and comes up Take a look at the models. This is called tropical oppression 0 3 L or 3 L and It you know all these different models all make their best guess of what it's going to happen to this storm if and when it forms and you can see a lot of them are going into East Texas Coast or Western Louisiana Central Louisiana, so that's the worth watching this week Like we didn't need any more big news, but it's it's just worth watching So once again to go look out of the week We've got 90s up for 90s going on into the weekend a little cool down with a little bit of Chance of showers on Saturday afternoon in the evening We can really dry out and get hot on Sunday as the ridge reestablishes itself before sorry Before the trough moves in early next week and bringing a cool down and a chance of showers For more local news more frequent weather posts take a look at the Longmont leader This has been chief meter. I'll just jump in it's worth for a long on public media. Keep looking up