 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Three games coming up tonight in the NBA playoffs We're gonna break down all three by talking to Brandon gondola getting his read on those three games Where he's seen value right now and say her bets at Fandall sportsbook plus a preview of the Zurich classic Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and Numberfire.com my name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for Numberfire and joined here as mentioned by Brandon gondola checking out on Twitter at gondola 13 You can find his work over at numberfire.com Brandon NBA playoffs in full swing. How you doing today? I'm good didn't get to see all of the RBC heritage of this past weekend, but I saw that the playoff between Matt Fitzpatrick and Jordan Spieth, which was Pretty sick. So I watched a lot of basketball. Jim's got his head down. I don't know. Oh, the Northwest I'm wearing the hat in honor of Maddie Fitz today. I didn't wear yesterday because I wasn't talking to you We were talking golf at all. So I had to like this is the only golf talk We have this week is this show since we're not doing the DFS side of things So yeah, I had to get the the Maddie Fitz pride in here somewhere So and you had for that much of his brother did not go to Northwestern, but they're playing together this week, right? No, they're not playing together in the team event. They're playing together next week when it's not a team event What is next week? I don't actually look that far ahead. I live in a moment. Sorry for trying to live in the moment Brandon constantly Mexico open at Vedanta, then Wells Fargo I did watch some basketball, too I just was leading off with the golf thing and then I figured it'd be a more natural segue to Go golf then basketball and then into basketball, but you know it it like busy weekend Transition can brandy do look here to facilitate the podcast. You're the point guard of all of this Making sure we remain on task You're not stomping on my chest, you know, I think that I appreciate that It's a very sportsman like of you to keep that restraint Today don't get me started. You have no hot takes in the Warriors I know this and no hot takes on Dreymon specifically and I know that you know Just this is how intimately I know you is I know you have nothing you want to say about that matter We'll dive into all three NBA games all into night's sleep breaking down where Brandon is seeing value there Then we'll talk about the Zurich classic later on the first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast we had Dr. Ed Feng on yesterday talking about the UEFA Champions League He talked about a bet that he likes for one of tomorrow's matches So still plenty of time to get that bet if you agree with Ed's logic They're also talked about some NFL draft more NFL draft and Ed coming up next week get all that by Subscribing to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast and if you'd like what you hear leave us a five-star rating as well You hadn't heard the NBA playoffs are here You can get in on the action right from first tip with Fandall right now all customers can get a no-sweat Same game parlay every weekend when you bet the NBA playoffs That's right Just place a three-plus leg same game parlay or same game parlay plus on any NBA playoff game You'll get bonus bets back if you don't win There is no better place to bet all the playoff action than America's number one sportsbook Head to the Fandall app and get a no-sweat same game parlay every weekend of the NBA playoffs Fandall Official sports betting partner of the NBA Must be 21 plus in president select states Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC Bonus issued is not with trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler Or visit fandall.com slash rg hope is here gambling help line MA.org or call 800-327-5050 For 247 support in Massachusetts in New York 1-877-8 hope and wire text open Y in Arizona 1-800 next step or text next step to 533 4 2 in Connecticut 1-888-789 7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-809 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1-805-2 2-4700 or in Kansas KS gambling help calm Louisiana is 1-877-770 stop in Maryland MD gambling health org and in West Virginia 1-800 gambler.net Let's dig in now to these Tuesday NBA playoff games We got three of them and those start off with the Hawks and the Celtics right now These Celtics are a ten and a half point favorites total here is 230 and a half and in the game number one of the series saw the Celtics get out to a massive lead early on Did get a bit closer as things went along but up one nothing here. How do you see things playing out in game two Brandon? You know, it was a 30 point lead at halftime Makes it hard to get a lot of takeaways unless your only takeaway is to be a very one-sided series The spread indicates as much the total Moving to 230 and a half is a bit problematic for me, but we'll get there in a second You know, I was on last week talking about how my process might differ for the playoffs We were talking playing games, but one thing that I probably should have mentioned more is That with fewer games, it's a lot easier to dig in To how games actually have, you know, how they went And one thing that really helps figure out how games actually progressed are the four factors which were I Guess uncovered by Dean Oliver anyone who knows basketball analytics knows That name, but it's effective field goal position which are effective field goal percentage which accounts for You know the fact that three pointers are worth more than two pointers So it's a better stat than just field goal percentage turnover rate offensive rebounding rate and free throws made per field goal attempt basically it's like all the ways that possessions can more or less end on offense and You can figure out like through those stats How things are going basketball reference has these for every single game the color code them green and red as you can see Who's leading so it's kind of you know It's really helpful when it's a simple way to look at things instead of just final score because it doesn't tell you a whole lot Of how things went but in this first matchup between Boston and Atlanta The Celtics easily led an effective field goal percentage 55 percent to 41 percent terrible shooting game for the Hawks That helped them run away with it despite an elevated turnover rate a Jalen Brown Jason Tatum Each had 23 shot attempts Would you love to see love when these teams get their best players the ball and that they're not shying away from it? For Atlanta, did you want a Murray Trey young combined one for 11 from three so you expect some regression there? From that from that duo. I have this spread at 10 points. So I'm not super interested in 10 and a half the Total as about an hour ago was 229 and a half and I saw about a point and a half maybe 1.8 points there Which is is fine on? The over but now it's down to about you know point seven points something like that So it's it's would be my preference, but it's really not something that I'm overly eager To go, you know full unit with on something that small I do I mean if you know If this is something that fits your process, which I am getting better and better at but Celtic's money line minus 510 Don't really see them dropping this game. I think it's pretty lopsided with this matchup The Hawks very average. We know the memes from their their whole regular season just floating around 500 Constantly, I guess I guess if anything it says that they'll win this game to even out the series But frankly it was just you know, it was such a bad shooting game for them That they're gonna have to really figure they're gonna have to bounce back pretty hard for this one so With this with the total moving back up or moving up a point. Yeah Don't see a whole lot right now Hopefully, you know if anyone was was into the over they got it before it went up to 230 and a half But if anything here now, it's just gonna be the Celtic's money line, which I'm always okay In certain cases putting into parlays because it's I don't want to say it's it's Safe and it's definitely not a guarantee But I really do think that that everything points to another Celtic's victory here implied odds of minus 510 are 83.6% I want to go back to you mentioned the shooting for the Hawks Is that a situation where the eye test could help you where you know you watch this game? You can identify Were they shooting poorly because the defense is clamped down They had a forest of or was it just they were off for a specific night This is a spot where you think the eye test can really help you in kind of identifying Whether regression will actually come you can say I test but you can also just look at the math And there were 10 points worse than the worst team in terms of effective field goal percentage for the regular season So it's gonna go back up unless they really are just you know ice cold, but so again, it should be a little bit closer Not necessarily to the point where I think that I want the Hawks to cover because I could feel this one Kind of slip away from them again in the second half. I don't really know if they have a whole lot of answers For slowing down Boston Just a pretty deep team Just it's look the NBA playoffs. We get a lot of lopsided matchups the Hawks are Have been average as we mentioned the whole regular season Boston is one of the best teams in the league The thing about basketball, I'm not saying that it's even predictable, but you know, we get Roughly a hundred possessions for each team every game. That stuff evens out. You look at football It's just like frankly a handful of possession. Sometimes a lot of fluky things can happen basketball the better team wins very often especially over the full series but I You know, it's just it's too close for me To want to get here aside from the Celtics money line, which I'm okay with So the books are expecting a similar game in game two for that one The same cannot be said for the Knicks and the Cavs right now These spread there is five and a half despite the fact the Knicks won a game one They are five and a half point dogs here total for this game is 214 Brandon Knicks win game one five and a half point dogs here any value for you in this game at Fandle So the Knicks dominated the the offensive glass Which bears out in the numbers almost a 39% offensive rebounding rate just again, that's one of the four factors They looked like they were hungrier which I I don't I don't love because I do still have a soft spot for the Cavaliers As you dig into analytics you lose your rooting interest. At least I do I know that Jim's not Not a big Jets fan anymore, right? Figuring here, you know for old-time's sake though. Yeah, so like it happens, but That helped them win despite having a really bad effective field goal percentage 46.6% League low this year 51.6% But Cleveland also below below that mark to just kind of an ugly game, but also the pace Just under 91 possessions I mean it sounds weird, but like pace is kind of hard to calculate There's like a bit of a formula to it So it's not just number of possessions always it's kind of derived by different stuff But you know that's love that's on the low end and that's actually what we've seen from these two teams when they've played very often Is that these games just are are slowed down as for this game itself? I mean Julie's Randall 10 3-point attempts, which is a bit on the higher end for him like to see him be a little bit more aggressive but interested to see how that the Cavaliers try to You know improve their defense on Jalen Brunson Chetty Osman had a seemed like he has having a tough time down the stretch Brunson 27 points on 24 shots in the opener But then for Cleveland also like they're gonna need someone to step up alongside Donovan Mitchell He had 38 in the opener Evan Mowley 4 for 13 11 boards, but like they're gonna need a secondary score here I have this spread as Cavs minus 6 so You know, it's another what I would call efficient line here based on my numbers, but I think the Cavaliers need to figure out their rebounding situation and Like that's one of those That's one of those things where we talked last week about the eye test and in feeling like you might know a thing or two And yeah long like the long-term data here says cast still, you know in play to cover here But don't really like the matchup. They haven't played the Knicks very well all season So it's like data says there's a little bit here. Mine says it might, you know Their efficiency might be scaled back against the Knicks the Knicks might be a little bit better Against the Cavaliers based on matchups. So for me what I'm going to I'm actually kind of going against what the model says again is the under 214 in this one These matchups have fallen short their five matchups this season fallen short of the total by an average of 9.1 points, although there were two overs out of those five games, but an average of two two hundred and ten Two ten point eight in these games and You know, you can't just look at like okay Here are four or five games of two matchups and this is exactly how you should bet and over under But I really don't see this pace ramping up a ton I do see the shooting efficiency being a bit better, but the pace itself is gonna be really low and I I have a hard time betting overs when I think teams just want to grind down the clock and play it slowly So it's close enough where I'm okay with the under And that's I think the best route to this game Although I do think that the Cavaliers bounce back and get the win for anyone who's interested in the money line But that's spread a bit too close for me So want to to think that they can cover that and win by six Yeah, just 198 total points in the first game 214 here the total for the second Brandon does like the under there due to The shooting due to all these factors combined the low pace all combined and make under 214 His favorite option there final game of the night is the Clippers and the Sun's Clippers got a big win in a game number one But this spread has lengthened it was seven and a half and open It's now eight and a half total is 225 and a half. What are you seeing with this one for the night cab? Yeah, I also hate that extra point Well, it was disappointing the market is moving the same direction you wanted to go like it might not be great For listeners, but it's good for the model validating what it said, right? Right? Yeah, it's it's the fact that things moved before Recording that that's that's tough here But yeah, not a lot of turnovers in this opener the Sun's narrowly led an effective field goal percentage 51 to 49 and a half percent there But the Clippers again hit the offensive glass hard another similar situation to what we saw with nicks and calves, but Overall again by those four factors pretty even game overall Sun's got some really balanced scoring from Kevin Durant Booker Aten Tori Craig had a nice game But here's where things get a little tricky is that, you know Kauai Leonard played well And I should mention Paul George's is out Just as a reminder He got he had 38 Kauai not Paul George Kauai had 38 points on 24 shots they kind of Like I know Russ ended up being a hero down the stretch but Not the best game for him efficiency wise nine points on three of 19 shooting in 36 minutes productive, you know otherwise, but Kind of a rough scene there So now what we're looking at is like you had the Clippers one took a really really efficient, you know point-per-shot basis from Kauai Leonard You know, I don't want to like Knock the rest of the Clippers like Eric Gordon at 19 Norman Powell 14 as you bots 12 But I don't know if if Russ is going to shoot the same way that he shot in this game Kauai maybe takes a step it almost feels like Kauai in the playoffs just is untouchable at certain times, but It kind of felt like the breaks went in their favor. Um, the problem there is The all of the data when the Suns are healthy points to They should they should have a commanding advantage in this lead in this series With Paul George out, but they dropped game one now for them to bounce back and win by nine um I could see them kind of I could see this one being close throughout and then the Sun's pulling away once The offensive limitations right now for the Clippers kind of hit them But again, uh You know, I I guess I I mean, I do have I do have the spread at it 9.9 in favor of the Suns. So it is the best spread of the night For sure So i'm interested there, but I do like the over in this game It's probably my favorite route of the entire night is the over in this game I think that again, I call it out the scoring limitations For the Clippers, uh, but I think that the Suns can really bounce back have a really good offensive game here Um, and the pace is not not nearly as bad, but about a hundred possessions in this game. So I think it's really promising uh for an over in this matchup The total again is 225 and a half right now The over is minus 110 the spread brand to mention half in favor of the Suns that this also this 110 Is that a bet for you or a lean on the Sun spread minus eight and a half? I will take it. Okay I liked it a lot more at seven and a half Sure as always wish we could record it You know seven o'clock night before I guess for these even earlier because they're posted pretty early, but um Again, I think it's encouraging that the numbers are moving your direction It's interesting that the spreads have lengthened on the favorites here for the two teams in loss game one Um, not sure if that's people trying to you know overcompensate for stuff or whatever But sounds like there is still value for you in the cast to an extent but also to the Suns at minus eight and a half I would I would throw out a Celtics Suns moneyline parlay Um, which is minus 188 on Vandalsport's book. I have those odds around minus 215 Okay, so that's value as well. Uh, the individual exit minus 355 for the Suns minus 510 for the Celtics Minus 188 is brand to mention for the two of them parlayed. He has a minus 215 That's actually pretty good value. So I find that intriguing as well Okay, that's the wrap up the NBA for today As mentioned this week in the pga. We got a team play event. It's a Zurich classic and brandon because there's no dfs for this event and I haven't been My foray into betting three balls aggressively in golf happened more recently than last year I've not had a lot of interest in this event in the past. So What should we know about this event before placing wagers? And what are the key things to know here? Yeah, so it's a team event But what does that mean exactly? Well, it's uh, I guess 80 groups of two I'm making up the teams. It's not like a like a rider cup format, but uh format for the actual golf um Since 2018 when the format switched over It's four ball, which is better ball In the first and third rounds and then alternate shot or four sums for the second and fourth rounds Meaning guys play the same ball for those two rounds. So It does make for interesting viewing but anyone who Even is not familiar with golf could understand Why it might be tricky to Get a read on something it's almost like You know, maybe not as drastic but for for two of the rounds Like a new like a rotating quarterbacks for every play or something like that. I mean to that. Let's propose it. Let's do it I mean The saints can do it, but uh, can't they? But yes, but but it's tricky And you know over the years you kind of get well You sort of hear like well, it's a team event. It's Really volatile. It's hard to predict, but I never I don't quite see it that way like there is more volatility and it's it's a lot trickier but the past winning teams have been Jonas blix and cam smith Billy Horschel and scott piercey Ryan Palmer and john rom who actually compliment games pretty well even though People don't think that at the time they did Mark leishman and cam smith and then patrick cantlay and zander schoffley last year who said a course record or I get I guess an event record, but um Like the runners up have been pretty notable I do think that it's one of those situations where like yes It's tough and maybe one one of the better like stronger players paired with someone else who's not quite as is good Or guys whose games maybe Don't mesh the right way Um Like Those guys can get knocked down, but if you take two good golfers and put them together They're probably gonna golf pretty well together and that's why Uh patrick cantlay and zander schoffley are what plus 290 to win this week on fandal sports book It's a bit tough. Um Because it still is a golf event And there's a lot of volatility in that those two guys are golfing phenomenally well right now and it almost feels like They're gonna be in contention no matter what uh but you know As far as like the core setup goes TPC louisiana does tend to favorite distance a bit. It's over 7400 yards And like one of the harder wrinkles here is that the greens are smaller than average They're like 5200 square feet on average pg tour average is around 6000 square feet A lot of bunkers Waters and plant eat holes. So like that adds to even more of the volatility, but again Like the winners are not super surprising. Uh, you know, we know that cam smith is Pretty legendary. So it's not that surprising to see him With those two wins in in examining like rider cups and president's cups I will say that good tea to green doze are Not the worst way to go because then you get more birdie chances and Um, I think that's very very appealing uh for this week But yeah, that's kind of like the nuts and bolts of what you need to know about this event It is a bit tricky. It's not completely random And i'm i'm not necessarily looking for like mega long shots to knock off because we have some good teams. Um You know, uh, especially You know at the very very very top patrick cantley xander schoffley calling more calamax homa Probably gonna be a very popular pick that duo. It's easy to root for there But billy horse will sam burns matt fits patrick and his brother alexis patrick. So like Fitz coming off the win. Um You know, it's hard to kind of figure out how they're gonna play together. Maybe they play together really really well But we don't really know that Yeah, see what see what cam tom cam is a fun pairing So like we we have we have names toward the top and I think that uh, You know at least one of those duos is going to be Someone that I kind of hone in on For this week. Yeah, so the betting options this week a bit more limited because It's a more unique event. So we don't have the full menu. We typically would get but when you look at The betting options this week whether it be outrides Uh finishing positions stuff like that anything you like right now at fandals sportsbook or is there going to be a pretty Slimmed down week for you. It will be slimmed down, but I think there are some things that at least make sense You know, it this one's tougher to simulate out, but you can do it um, I've had I mean Like not a shocker, but the the numbers uh for me liked Xander Shuffle and Patrick Kelly last year and they got it done finally So like that's good to see but this year actually one of the duos I did not mention is like one of the better duos Keith Mitchell and sung gm plus 1300 On a fandals sportsbook. I like that. I think that's the best route to go as far as the outrides go among the top of the board Combined they should get a lot of fairways Have good irons overall If you average out their total stroke skiing numbers over the past 50 rounds, they're they're the third best group in the field like to see that you know Can't land Shuffle or or a You know comfortably above them and then Morakawa And homa about a half shot above this duo, but I do think that this team makes sense um Again should be an in play Shouldn't really put each other into bad positions whenever they're sharing the ball And I think that's got to help Plus probably gonna be a pretty laid-back duo I also would love like A mesh of those two like Keith Mitchell's off the t numbers with sung gm everywhere else like Keith Mitchell's not bad elsewhere But like you combine that with sung gm like that could be pretty fun like as an actual like golfer too Yeah That's all I had. Anyway Well, would it be sung j mitchell or or Keith m I think um Mitchell We'll work on it. We'll get the interns on this to decide what the actual like mash-up would that of that would be I think, um rick run good on twitter, uh said homa kawa for Collin Morakawa max homa. I like that one. So we needed a full rundown You said 80 pairings and you can get me all 80. Uh, what their mash-up names would be I would like that. What about finished positions? Uh round leaders or anything like that where you see value for this week Oh, I um another uh outright. I think makes sense But again, I'm not going to follow anyone for just taking like a top 10 here But jg swan hayden buckley, uh 37 to 1 Both are good off 32 people are on them. They're down to 32 All right, that's all right. That's all right. That's all right. Um, both are pretty good Pretty average irons, but I think they'll complement each other's games Well, eighth in the field in average strokes gained total over the past 50 rounds according to data golf So I'm good with that and now we can move on to uh to to finishing position Tandems that I think make some sense First is a top 10 at plus 330 Robbie Shelton a spreadsheet ruiner and lee Hodges pretty good tea to green duo and again, that's something that um the the the sort of team play Research I've done in the past for rider cups and presidents cups say that and it makes sense. Um You don't want to have your you don't want to put your your partner In a position where they got it They got to be the one to sort of help you get up and down So you want to hit more greens again smaller greens, but still Uh and and they're 16th and strokes gained average over the past 50 rounds and then a top 20 that I think makes sense joseph bramlett and brandon woo Just plus 135 but a lot of really bad teams In this event, which is what it is a lot of like big big negative numbers is combined teams, which you you don't love Uh, but bramlett and woo 19th and combined or average. I guess it'd be the same same divisor Is that right? I don't know 19th and strokes gained average Uh tea to green pretty good. They're both basically good ball strikers, but not good putters So maybe they feed off of each other's bad putting energy Um, which is is is tricky, but it is only a top 20 plus 135 I think it makes sense for getting again two good got uh two good ball strikers Pair it up together. So that's woo and bramlett top 20 a plus 135 You got sheldon and hodges plus 330 for a top 10 Spawning buckley 32 to 1 to win and then also michelin m 13 to 1 to win this week for the ziric classic that is all that we have here for today On covering the spread ran into thank you as always swinging by talking some mba talking some pga Have fun this week and we'll talk to you again soon Yeah, it's always fun. Uh, hope everything works out and For once I think I'm gonna root against my guys zander So that somebody else can win who's not plus 290 I mean sportsbooks just conspire to keep you rooting for them usually and they've done the opposite this week You know keep him 25 to 1 hard not to bet him hard not to root for him, but plus 290 That'll be the trick almost almost worked out last week Yep, it did indeed either way regardless. Thank you. Brandon is always fine Brandon on twitter I could do a 13 check out his work over at number fire dot com I'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s as mentioned our Preview of the ucl matches for tuesday wednesday is up over on covering the spread also talks about draft at dr At fang get that there over or over on the fandal youtube page. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network