 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe, currency trader and trading coach at trading180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis if you're new or a warm welcome to you and Don't forget to like subscribe and share With your fellow trading colleagues It really does help the YouTube algorithm if you like and subscribe and get the quality content out there To the traders that really need it and our approach to trading 180 is to really just apply Fundamental analysis first to establish our directional bias overall for the medium to long term and even in the short term But then it's them then apply technical analysis and supplying demand strategies to time trade entries risk management and Establish profit targets overall. So Let's get into the week ahead and heading to trading economics week ahead Zooming in The coming week will see the publication of a batch of economic data including inflation data for the US which is going to be important and The others we don't trade other countries third quarter GDP figures for the UK. That's definitely going to be watched Malaysia and the Philippines Consumer sentiment for the US and Australia and foreign trade for Germany, which is important for Europe and the euro also central banks in Okay, yeah, we don't really care about the Thailand Philippines in Mexico, but Yes, I'm interesting news coming out for the currencies that we do trade the the major seven eight currencies that we end up trading So that's coming up in the week ahead. Let's go now into some in-depth technicals and fundamentals and starting off on the US dollar DXY index and Yeah, technically we have come back up into again this major area very very It's very obvious area of supply has been touched several times once twice and Probably some profit-taking going on in and around that area but I think the path for these resistance is to the upside and that's not based off of Looking at what you know, but technicals a point in it's really to do with the fundamentals and this week or say last week On the third we had the FOMC and the Federal Reserve Bank Private Bank the long road to normalcy So the Federal Reserve finally accepted the economy has made enough progress to start slowing the rate of QE purchases What does that pretty much mean? It means that the the bank will stop printing money, right? They will they're not going to necessarily buy a government debt as much government debt They're gonna start to slow that purchase which is positive for the currency so they're not printing as much money So the policy stance remains very very Stimulative with the Fed's balance sheet set to hit nine trillion next year. It's crazy The the economy is re-accelerating and it accelerating Sorry and inflation will hit 6% meaning that pressure on the Fed to end QE early and hike rates will undoubtedly grow. So Ultimately the the economy is growing, which is what will support potential rate hikes, right and And that's what the the central bank and I guess the government are looking for is for the economy to grow It's very hard for difficult for a central bank to hike rates and In the face even if inflation is above the 2% target, but if the economy is not growing that's what's known as Stagflation, right? So it looks positive for the dollar so far So really any pullbacks on for the dollar and also as well the data has to support the narrative so The data has to come in again quite strong or as expected for the dollar to continue to you know To rise in price and for the demand to remain on the dollar Right, so again down here is FX tapering offers support narrative to the dollar So going back to really the charts and understanding, you know Where we are do you want to be a buyer of the dollar? You know at these hikes the best thing to do is really to kind of look for any kind of pullbacks, right? And you're not looking for any buy trades really on the dollar index This is the dollar index is just a measure of strength against, you know, the major Currencies like the euro the the yen and the pound but also as well what you also have is Is what we look for ultimately is is to see Any kind of confluence so if prices do come down into an area of Demand then you want to look for buying opportunities and someone probably watching this is probably thinking to themselves Well, how do I know in this wide area of demand what to look for right? One of the things you can do one things you can do is add some support and resistance within that area of demand Right is look for an area of support and resistance and then look for any kind of Confluences within these areas, right? So if you start to see Price start to turn up in around that zone there or maybe even the lower zone right here towards this Lowered 93 area. That's where you're looking for confluence if that starts to you know Produce some some bullish candles then look for buying opportunities on the Other dollar crosses if you want to be a buyer of the dollar, right if you don't believe that the dollar will Continue to strengthen against the basket of currencies regardless of what you think about, you know, the dollar and Inflation there are other currencies that are definitely worse situations than the dollar And that's ultimately what we're trying to do right? We're trying to buy divergences strong against weak currencies So there may be an opportunity this week to try and get short on the dollar But for me, I think again the path of these resistance and I've been saying is ever since June right June the 15th and they stay here and the Fed really kind of announced to Buy the dollar they actually to come out and say that but they were saying they were looking to hike rates Which is always positive for the dollar That was where the path of these resistance has been right you can see what's really happened So it's just basically buying on pullbacks pull back into that zone there or maybe even the zone Underneath it look for some confluences in and around that area there and then look for buying opportunities potentially if you're looking at the dollar index as confluence On the other forex pairs so nice shorting opportunity As far as the location wise don't really like the zone. It's been touched several times I'm not keen on the level that's been touched several times to be fair But I think for me again looking at buying opportunities For the dollar and let's see what happens moving on to the dollar Yen and again a dollar yen Had did come down last week Saying this and prices did go up to the again the supply zone moving this this ranging market I guess an agreed value between buyers and sellers right that's at the moment That's expensive and that's that was seen as as cheap, right? So there were buyers here, but I think overall again the the dollar is a buy Not too sure whether this is the whether this is the best buy I'm probably waiting for a bit of a stop hunt below that market and then looking for any kind of long trades If you're in the group you'll understand what the setup is if we're looking at just supply and demand zones Here is an okay level, but I think if anything if prices do come back down to this 111 50 that's gonna look like a very very cheap zone for the for the dollar and why would prices potentially come down to that area? If you have what is known as risk-off scenario then Risk-off meaning Some fear uncertainty and doubt the Japanese yen does tend to strengthen in a risk-off environment So you probably want to Maybe avoid that but I think oh I think the the the dollars should be a decent buy In the round these areas if not probably somewhere in between But you'd have to wait for price to kind of prove that there's demand in certain areas either there or there before looking at getting long But let's see what happens in this zone. If you are looking to get short. Let me just clear all this off a little bit Then I think the other the 114 50 area is decent for a potential short trade In that zone, but again, I'm looking for buying opportunities on this currency pair moving on to the dollar Swiss and I Actually missed this trade. There was a few traders that did get involved in that made some decent profit Prices have pulled back and I do think again if prices can pull back to this zone here or even actually down to this 91 round number again, I do think that actually might be a decent buy for that dollar Swiss Some traders in again in the group will know this as to be a bit of a CPR capture pain relief set up So 91 area I'm watching it for sure if that level doesn't you know hold then I will be looking at Buy trades in and around this area if you're looking at sell trades and supply And again, you would be looking at sell trades on this currency pair really because Of the fact that there could be potential risk off And if there is risk off again, the Swiss Frank is one of the currencies that generally will tend to Strengthen it in a risk-offing environment any pullbacks into supply zones are Sell trades Dollar CAD and the dollar CAD coming to an interesting area matter of fact the Canadian dollar Should want to strengthen at some point because they are next to They're in a similar situation to The US dollar and the Federal Reserve where the Bank of Canada have come out and said that they're you know Pretty much trying to end quantitative easing. So potentially this could be actually a decent sell Personally, it's not currency pair that I like to trade simply because they're both looking to strengthen their currencies and The divergence really isn't there. So for me, I'm Going to avoid this but if you do want to take advantage of a potential supply zone and you think that that's a bargain area for the The Canadian dollar against the US dollar then there's a short trade right there any long trades probably down into one two three One two two fifty area before looking at any long trades moving on to the pound dollar and The pound dollar Unfortunately, I didn't get involved in this trade. There was a I know there was a couple of traders that did get involved in this in the group and Made some decent amount of money. We were basically talking about this area being a profit-taking area and I was waiting for just a bit more higher prices prices didn't go As I expected or say expected, but I wanted them to So unfortunately, I didn't miss out But we knew that the path in these resistance was to the downside and when I say we knew I mean that we had a high probability right based off of our fundamental analysis and I've been short on the pound for For a while now for a pretty over a month. That's been my bias And if you look at the Bank of England again In case you missed it, they didn't high crates the market expected them to but they actually didn't they held off and again, the reasons were because There was talks of stagflation meaning that the economy really wasn't growing but inflation potentially Potentially, but inflation was going higher, right? So The the fact that they didn't high crates disappointed the markets and and And then you saw a drop in the pound Valuation but the UK Bank of England is set to hike less quickly than markets expect and the UK central bank looks poised to increase rates this December and we expect to further hikes next year But growth headwinds and a comparatively less severe inflation issue Suggests markets are overestimating the pace of tightening Brexit is also set to return as a source of uncertainty as tensions build between the UK and the EU so From an analysis perspective There's a lot going on with the pound and I think the pound potentially could be a buy at some point But you'd really want to see the The economy turn around I think for now the economy in the third quarter isn't going to be great I think there's they were talking about potential slowdowns in the economy again, which meant which kind of meant that the the bank it was hard for the bank to really Hike rates because they could have hurt the economy by hiking rates too soon So again nothing to par for the resistance is to the downside any pullbacks into that one three six area But for me anyway would be a really nice short trade and let's see what happens there If you do want to get long on the pound Then you're probably looking at probably right now would be a decent area to look for any kind of long trades but for me, I think the path for these resistance is to the downside and Regardless of of whether they hike rates I think this starts to become a buy only if GDP right starts to You know grow there's some really good numbers with GDP that will support a rate hike But other than that if GDP comes out for the third quarter is as flat Or or or negative it misses expectations Then I think like I said any pullbacks on this currency pair will be a shorting opportunity Moving on to the euro dollar and the euro dollar again Really nice stop hunt above that area there and Again, we were talking this week about shorts and the pound which pretty much materialized Not the pounds so it's short from the euro Which really kind of materialized and again looking at the divergence between The euro and the dollar The euro outlook the guard rejects 2022 great hike, right? So the euro exchange rates were softer midweek Trade and face the challenging outlook after the head of European central bank Sent markets a clear message that they were wrong to expect interest rate rises as soon as 2022 So they have no plans in next year and pretty much this year is finished, right? Couple months and then that's it were in 2022, but They have no plans to hike rates. Whereas if you go back to for example the dollar They're talking about potential rate hikes You know, maybe next year right tapering etc So it's looking a lot more positive and again going to the charts This is why this is being reflected on, you know the price chart So that's not to say that prices can't you know go higher? But I think any moves to the upside for me are Shorting opportunities. That's the way that I'm looking at this and especially if prices do come up to this one 16 167 area, I think for me that is going to be a really really nice shorting opportunity To look for any kind of short rates So but if you are buying the the euro for whatever reason there is a turnaround in in the euro fortunes and GDP etc. Then you're looking at a nice buying opportunity just because there's a pinball there Doesn't mean that there's going to be This is a buying opportunity because there's lots of stops below that From traders uninformed traders Potentially and what you could see is prices start to then start to take out that liquidity So be careful if you are looking to buy again, you're seeing where You know the price trend is you're seeing where fundamentally you know the divergence is between the two central banks and And for me again any pullbacks are shorting opportunities Looking now at the Aussie dollar Aussie dollar Again looking at any kind of buy trades at a recent high Say to traders just avoid this right you want to avoid buying at highs if you see This was a bargain area and that was an expensive area buying at highs is not something that you really should Look to do right you want to look for buying opportunities in and around pullbacks So again if you're looking at buying the Australian dollar for me I'm not really keen on this pair and I think the US dollar is really the one to buy Currently when it comes to monetary policy anyways Although the Australian dollar I can see the fortune started to turn around a little bit but for me I Think that again any kind of pullbacks into some supply zones will be Shorting opportunities. So we've got a supply zone there. We've also got a decent supply zone right here So any pullbacks into those zones decent shorting Opportunities, but I think there are definitely better trades to buy the dollar and better currencies to buy the dollar against And again, if you're looking to buy the Australian dollar Ash, I think now is a really nice technical setup. I don't really like the fundamentals though And finally gold gold gold. So again with gold Although the dollar did didn't really weaken too much gold definitely, you know strengthened more on inflation Concerned and global inflation concerns and potential risk-off sentiment You can see it, you know bouncing off this this demand zone right here Over the past couple of days and if inflation again starts to get out of hand then Gold is obviously a hedge against inflation and the dollar, but Again a very kind of a bit of a tough for me anyway a bit of a tough trade because The dollars looking to strengthen their currency, right which should actually keep a lid On gold, but again, it just depends on whether the big traders believe that the inflation is Transitory or temporary or whether if they believe that the Fed if the Fed haven't got a lid on inflation Then you should see gold go to the upside regardless of what the dollar does. So I Think this area here is is a decent area to look for any kind of short trades, although it has been touched once twice Yeah, so it's touch actually impact. I don't I don't really I wouldn't take that trade personally I'm probably more wait for a stop hunt if I was looking for any kind of a short trades But if you do want to get short in that area that one 18, sorry the 18 30 area for gold then That's that's decent for sure But you'd have to obviously believe that the dollar is gonna get stronger and there's no inflation fierce, right? If you will do want to be a buyer of gold Then the next area to look for by trades is going to be that area there produced a nice Level of demand any kind of pullbacks into that zone there is going to be decent for a buy trade to that one The 1790 area for gold, right? So guys, that's it for this week Hope you enjoyed the analysis. Please again, don't forget to like subscribe and share the video content on all the social media channels from Facebook to To TikTok to Instagram and really get the quality content out there Take care guys. Have a great trading week and speak to you all soon You