 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a loaded Tuesday on tap here on covering the spread We're gonna take our first look at NFL week number two lines Let you know what my numbers are saying about those and also recap week number one But first we got a talk some pitching props a Rob Friedman pitching ninjas here break down his favorite bets for Tuesday My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joining me here here as he does every Tuesday Is Rob Friedman checking out on Twitter. I pitching into find his work at Fox Sports Peacock MLB and Nessan Rob It is a digrom day. So I feel like I know the answer, but how you doing today? I'm doing great There's a ton of great pitching today, too. Like it's not just a grom. It's like everybody They they need to spread it out more. Don't you think I know we'll put we'll assign to grom every every Monday We'll assign Cole every Tuesday Darvish Thursday. We can probably work it around that way, right? I think that's a great idea. Spread it out. My work gets too tough if you have them all in one day That's right now We were talking before the show and you were like talk we're talking about redemurs And you pulled up a baseball like out of the screen like out of nowhere So are you just constantly holding a baseball at all times waiting to explain like grips? Or is this just like a because I play with my hands, too Because I have like massive like ADHD as you could probably tell like I play with things with my hands, too But is it just like a fidgeting thing or just like you need this to like show, you know Like grips and stuff like that. I'd like to say it's about grips I do constantly play with grips, but it's more of a fidgety thing. I think it's just something that I have that I enjoy I don't know. It's it's different, right? Yeah, one of those fidget spinner things. Yeah, we used to use my object of the day is my wireless headphones They're just here. I just feel like playing with them right now. So I am fully on board at this I do have a couple like like fancy baseball trophies that are baseballs. I could play with that instead You know, we'll we'll work on this and workshop I'll clean way go here, too, which is a training thing, but I sometimes use this too. It's I don't know man It's I love it. I love it. And the good thing is you can distract yourself as you're sweating some strikeout props Personally, hopefully not sweating too much. Let's dive in the strikeout props you have on tap for Tuesday We mentioned a grom we got Garrett Cole tonight when you're looking at the board in terms of strikeout props What's standing out to you? Well, I myself have a three leg parlay with Cole for seven K's or more Darvish or seven K's or more and Kyle right in the night cap for six K's or more because I think The braves had like 14 K's last night. I think they figured the Giants out Giants K a decent amount and right is a You know underrated stud. So Look for him to cap it off. I'm planning to win tonight, Jim I mean last week we had you on you had the hazel zardo erinola nice strikeout parlay. They did get there. Um, you had you had, uh, raw The guy who got scratched. I can't remember who was scratched drew Rasmussen got scratched Yeah, but like, hey, you got those two Hopefully it was just like, you know, you ride at those two that wouldn't work for sure So I'm feeling pretty good about this one Rob. You got Cole over six and a half That's minus 150 Darvish over six and a half is plus 104 right over five and a half plus 116 Now right rocky start last time out, but the overall trend for right has seemed to be To be getting more strikeouts Are you kind of picking up on the same thing that I have because it seems like there's been a bit more juice In infamy strikeout perspective recently I I agree and I think he's always a threat to have a 10 K game like to me Right stuff when he's on his curveball is one of the better curveballs in the majors Um, and I think pitching alongside charlie mortens really helped him So I I like it. He's got a lot of confidence in his game Yeah, I mean I I I definitely sense a trend up, but he's been good all year like he is He's a legit, you know top tier starter and a lot of people don't realize that I mean winds are winds are not a good stat But like the fact that he has 17 of them that probably indicates he's been pitching pretty well So good year for Kyle right and if you combine all three of those together It's plus 6 34 over at fan dual sports book right now with Cole darvish and right at seven seven and six respectively I do want to talk to you about jacob degrom though before we let you go For today because degrom's strikeout prop is nine and a half Minus 140 on the over now. I told you before I've got him projected at 10 and a half For today, which would lead you to believe I'd like the over but I have a hard time getting there rob This is an astronomical number. What's your read on jacob degrom facing off against a high strikeout cubs team? Yeah, I mean my guess I always go the over for degrom just because it's it's more rooting though than actual like math Um, I you know when degrom strikes out a lot of hitters. It's a good day for me And I love watching him pitch. He is like a highlight, you know in and of himself drop everything every time he throws As good as anybody's ever pitched in the game. So yeah, I like him for the over, but I don't like minus 140 no like come on like You know, I agree that it's a rooting interest kind of thing at that point because he's just he's just so fun to watch Now the one I do like for today is jordan montgomery and montgomery to me Has undergone this fascinating shift ever since he joined the cardinals where it seems like A total totally different pitcher in terms of his approach in terms of the way he's pitching out there What have you seen the jordan montgomery with the cardinals made him so different than what he was with the yankees It really is and I just saw an interview with him where he talked about that Like it's a whole degree of confidence The yankees said hey jordan your fastball sucks So why don't you rely on your off speed pitches? And and he was like, you know, it made him tentative and not attacking Now he's comfortable throwing all of his pitches on in any count He believes in his fastball and honestly like believing is a huge part of pitching if you have confidence in your stuff It just plays better. So by him loving his fastball It's really upped his game and you're seeing more kays. You're seeing more dominance. He's always been good But this has made him really good. So again, sometimes analytics drives Like you can match analytics, but you have to match it with a pitcher's psyche and for montgomery It really affected him and made him tentative. So now all you know, everything's off and he is throwing He's throwing like he wants to throw. So I like that. I think six kays is You know, it's certainly a good number for him. He's random like, you know, sometimes he's not a high k Dude, but yeah, I mean I I can see that Yeah, it's a plus 118 right now to get over to get six plus strikeouts over a vandal sports book You might be able to get a better number elsewhere So I would shop around a montgomery see if you can get a four and a half still out there Something like that because I think that there is a lot of value in that he's facing the brewers another high strikeout team um, I think that does bode well for montgomery first night and He was talking about, you know, the the confidence thing He's always been a weird pitcher for me rob and I want to ask you about this because it seems like He's always been a guy where he's gotten more whiffs than he's gotten strikeouts and that's a weird Weird alignment there. You typically those things correlate pretty well. Why is that though? Why did he why was he kind of a guy who? Underformed in the strikeout department relative to what you think based on the number of swings and misses he got Great great pickup because that is exactly what he said He said what happens is he would get ahead and counts And then because everyone knew that he didn't think that his fastball wasn't the pitch he was relying on He'd try to flip in some some off speed and it was basically an auto take So if you have two strikes on somebody you're auto taking know the ball's going to be out of the zone And it led to fewer fewer whiffs fewer strikeouts So gets a lot of swings and misses gets to two strikes and then because it had mentality It was tougher for him to put hitters away and now he could throw any pitch with two strikes and get decay Well, he's been fun to watch so far He had a great out against the Brewers last time so let's see if Montgomery can get there again Six plus strikeouts plus 118 at the end of a sportsbook right now Check out rob's three leg parley with cola over six and a half Darvish over six and a half and right over five and a half again Plus six 34 right now over fando sports But we'll see if you can duplicate the success you had last week with the nola And lozardo calls that is rob freeman. Check him out on twitter at pitching ninja and find him Basically wherever you consume baseball, you can find rob rob. I appreciate it Have fun watching to grom coal darvish all throughout the entire night. We'll talk to you once again next week Absolutely. Thanks again, Jim Thank you rob again check out rob on twitter at pitching ninja and find all those fun Delightful gifts at pitching ninja on twitter and I'll find his work at fox sports peacock mlb and nessen We're diving nfl week number two in just one second here and break down What my number is saying about this we get our first look at that slate in just one segment first big news Fandall sportsbook or fandall has an all-new mobile gaming app fandall faceoff fandall faceoff is where you compete in quick Fun games against other real people for real cash It is all sorts of games you're familiar with like home run derby wheel of fortune puzzling strategy games and pat mac at These kicking game as well contests are action packed and last two to five minutes So you can play on your couch waiting a line during commercial break wherever and on your schedule plus You can practice for free anytime whether it be head to head multiplayer Or larger tournaments fandall faceoff has something for you plus in most contests You match against players of similar scale levels So you're never completely over matched even as a beginner fandall faceoff Is also tied your fandall account and wallet so you can easily use your daily fantasy funds or sportsbook winning In the app visit fandall dot com slash faceoff or download the fandall face Faceoff app in the apple app store today to get in the game age and location restricts supply void were prohibited see fandall dot com slash faceoff dash terms For terms and conditions Now what we'll be doing here each tuesday And this is kind of our first time doing it without the benefit of a lot of time for these numbers to move Is breaking down the opening numbers across the nfl and laying out Where are my numbers are seeing value and what i'll do is i'll lay out where it's where they see value and whether I agree with it and whether i'm willing to bet it or not because there those are some key distinctions I don't always agree with what my numbers are saying and unfortunately I guess we're fortunate depending on you know your view of things I'm seeing a lot of value in underdogs once again for this week. This one is unfortunate the spot where my numbers are showing the most value is the cardinals plus Five and a half against the radio runs out now. I did the exact same thing. I don't blame you We talked about this in the show last week where my numbers like the cardinals moved against me Did not go well very obviously, but Five and a half's a big number opened at two and a half and moved pretty steadily between Monday into tuesday I think it moved too far now for me Plus five and a half. I'm willing to take that so I have the cardinals Plus five and a half in the spot. I will lock that in now. I will say Personally, I have bet the money line as well. The money line for the cardinals Is plus we ate a fan dual sportsbook That's not necessarily when I recommend like there's difference between like betting it myself and recommending it I'm not sure if this is a do as I say not as I do situation I think you should go with the points versus the money line here But I think they're a volatile team and volatility is good if you're gonna get a lot of plus money on that money line And again, I'm showing a lot of value on that I'm not gonna lie. The cardinals are favorite of my model. I'll just I'll be fully transparent with you I think you deserve to know that but so I have taken the money line personally I think for the show I want to officially recommend five and a half at minus 110, but I think there's value in the money line. I'm not gonna recommend it So if they win, I'm not gonna take credit for it here on the podcast But I did take it myself So I would dig in the cardinals there to see if there's something you'd like Number two in terms of most undervalued for this week based on my numbers is last night's winner the seattle freaking Seahawks genus smith uh smith genus smith mvp on the way here in 2022 And I don't think it's no reaction to last week to face in the 49ers This spread is plus eight and a half in favor of the seahawks And I think that's enough for me to bite on them. It's not no reaction to last week I'm I'm assuming that george kittle will play in my current numbers and even with kittle being active I still show value on the seattle side of things because I think this defense is better than perception Obviously a lot of flukiness in that game last night. You don't expect two fumbles in the goal lines My decision-making they should have lost last night's game all things considered so And again week one is not a big component in my model. It's still mostly a prior that's driving this recommendation, but Pretty good defense. I think that ground game would be pretty efficient the offensive line I like a decent amount based on how the two rookies have played uh since start of the pre-season So I have taken this one seattle plus eight and a half at minus 110 I think there is value in that. Um, so Cardinals plus five and a half seattle plus eight and a half Those are the primary ones for me. There are two money lines to stand out again Both these are underdogs, uh, but both these are spots where I actually Think these teams should be favored. Those are carolina and washington carolina facing off with the Giants, uh, I have the panthers favorite of this one by 1.1 points that game is on the road up in new york, but I thought the panthers looked okay in week one. Obviously they did not win. They played pretty terribly The first half but seemed to gel a bit more in the second half Baker mayfield is letting a rip to robbie anderson. Obviously big plays are kind of fluky. So again similar to the Seahawks win I don't want to put a lot of weight into what we saw from the panthers in week one This still is still largely based on a prior, but the Giants offense We saw daniel jones still makes some of the same mistakes. He's made The panthers can at times generate a pass rush as well So plus 118 in the money line here. I think it's pretty good Again considering that I have the panthers favored within this game That spread if you want to go that way instead is currently a two and a half In favor of the the Giants here the Giants two and a half point favorites I think it's a lot of swing on the Giants based on sentiment of what they did in week one against a team that I didn't like coming into the air in the Titans. I had the Giants plus six and a half in this spot So was down the Titans And hairling wound up being high on the Giants. I feel like this has been an overreaction Opened it the Giants by one has moved to two and a half I don't think it should have moved. I think you should have stayed stayed pat at one So I'll take the panthers on the money line plus 118 here Against the Giants other one as mentioned is washington plus 115 against the lions I have historically been far too high on jared golf and far too low on karsten wenz Maybe not too low on wenz but not high on him to say the least so It was a bit of a surprise for me to open it up by my my sheet and see that I was showing value In this one here on the washington side of things similar to the panthers I have the the commanders favor in this game by 1.2 points over the lions that is considering home field advantage and stuff like that washington looked okay, uh, you know, they Seen pretty efficient in terms of passing getting the ball to johan dotson Kurt of sandal in addition to terry mcclore and this is a lot more Like we talked a lot about wenz versus taylor heinecky But this is a lot more skill position talent too on the washington side of things So I think it's a pretty big upgrade for them offensively to have these guys in place And I don't think we're accounting for that in this number lions fell down pretty big to the eagles Should their credit they did claw their way back But the fact they had to claw their way back should stick in our minds as well same thing with washington against jacksonville, but um I do think that washington is undervalued here. So the two money lines. I like right now washington plus 115 Carolina plus 118s those are the four bets I have right now Carolina plus 118 washington plus 115 Seattle plus eight and a half on the spread and arizona plus five and a half on the spread and again, I Bet their money line too because I hate money Why not other games and keeping an eye on right now in terms of where my numbers are showing value I'm looking at the the falcons plus 10 and a half against the rams Not quite confident enough in that to pull the trigger because it's a negative game script for marcus mariota I get seen that has extra rest has erin donald has jill and ramsey tough situation for atlanta if it were to move a bit more maybe i'd buy in obviously Not a lot of key numbers between 10 and 14. So Movement wouldn't really matter all that much. I am showing value right there Not enough me to believe in it and actually bet that one though Currently showing value in miami plus three and a half against baltimore I'm interested in that one My numbers are lower on the ravens than then most spots seem to seem to be They obviously played pretty well in week one, but it wasn't like some blowout by any means The reason i'm holding off on this one is I want to see the status of ronnie stanley Stanley did practice throughout last week, but did not play marcus peters didn't play either If they get those two guys back once I bake that in i'm guessing this one might not be showing as much value for me So holding off on the dolphins plus three and a half monitoring those two guys peters and stanley specifically to see What their status may be heading into week number two? Maybe i'll bite them that later if it seems like stanley might not go or if peters may not go currently not biting, um, but At least keeping an eye on it. My numbers show value in the titans. Uh, plus Uh, nine and a half against the bills. Nope. No interest. No consideration In there. I am not doing it. I don't I don't hate myself that much The bills looked awesome in week one the titans did not so i'm not taking that one I though it'd have to move a lot. I have to show a lot of value to be tempted there So no real interest there and the other one Where i am showing some value is the vikings against the eagles Right now, uh, that's at uh either one and a half or two depending on the book I did take this a two and a half yesterday I'd not run my like full model yet, but I thought I'd probably show value in the vikings and I do It's now two one and a half. I'm still showing value there not enough where i'm looking to bet it, but um Because again, I have the two and a half But I think if you're if you're high in the vikings, there is still a bit of value there So you could turn there as well So monitoring right now in terms of spreads the vikings Not monitoring the titans, uh, and the monitoring the dolphins and the falcons, but I've not, uh I would not bet those at their current numbers as of right now The one money line we did not get to you that I am Monitoring is the jags kind of think the jags are interesting Uh jackson will facing off in indianapolis their money line right now Is a plus 168 so they're implied win odds 37 percent not showing a ton of value there It's uh, I've got them at 39.5 to win this game So not a ton of value, but I also do believe in it. So It's one of those where the value is thinner, but I feel I feel good about the value that is showing the jags very pass heavy week number one Cold to defense didn't seem to be anything to write home about I think jack Leonard's probably gonna play this week based on the fact he did practice Throughout last week didn't play last week, but I think he'll probably be in there So Very interesting. I want to keep an eye on this one see the way it moves The jags did some things that caught my attention in a positive way in week one So monitoring that one as well And we'll see if I do wind up biting on that one not totally sure yet So the four bets locked in those this will probably be the podcast where I talk about the bets I like the most for the week I'll probably add in maybe one on on thursday's when I talk with ryan or talk to some player props with jj and friday, but For the most part the bets I I have for the show will be discussed on these tuesday shows So I would recommend tuning in for those each time to see where we're seeing some value But for right now, I think the biggest value would be In taking the panther's money line commander's money line and then the spread on the seahawks and The cardinals we'll see if that One goes it for this week So that's our week two first look But I also want to keep the accountability section of the podcast here in place So we are going to go back and recap last week's show as well and break down where or how bets went Just to give you like an idea of okay. Here's how Our things did so you know if you want to listen to us or not would recommend listening to dr. Ed fang We have him on here every wednesday That is not three and oh and college football for this year He had usc of minus nine and a half against stanford stanford did claw back in the fourth quarter, but Couldn't get the backdoor cover. This was a back there usc won by 13 So ed three and open the year night start by ed check out ed on twitter at the power Rank and check out his work at the power rank.com our guests in the college side of things was a drew martin You can find drew on twitter at drew martin bets Awesome movement for drew on both those bets just tough results But great movement here. He had miami minus 23 and a half against usm That one closed at 27 and a half so four points of movements But they won by 23 So a loss by the hook there unfortunately for drew but again four points of movement that counts for a lot So a good process bet for drew similar stuff for baler b yu total there was 53 and a half He liked the over a close to the 55 So one and a half points in his favor But both gunner romney and puke and knock wall were ruled out on saturday That probably hurt things a little bit here in terms of the total That game did go to ot but uh couldn't quite get the over there So good movement for drew bad luck in terms of the the guy has been ruled out for b yu um bad luck in terms of the way things finished in that miami game But good movement across the board just not the results long term clv is probably going to pay off for drew so check him out on twitter at drew martin bets ryan williams ryan alexander underscore w awesome start to him uh here on covering the spread as well He went three and oh on his spread bets on thursday That was the bucks minus two and a half the texans plus seven and a half and the stealers plus six and a half and He won all three got the outright win with the stealers got the tie with the texans the bucks They didn't even play great, but they just played better than dalas. So, uh Missed a couple totals so three and two week overall for ryan, but really nice showing on the spreads there ryan Says spreads are not his favorite thing Maybe they should be good week by ryan there. He also he did uh, I don't know if we talk about this in the show But he did take the bearer's money line It's like a personal bet and hit that so nice week for ryan who is a bearer's season ticket holder Good little week there from ryan. We'll have him back on on thursday to break down Some uh, nfl week two lines as well I was four and two on the week. Uh, my bets were the two or uh, the two early ones That was the texans plus eight and a half Giants plus six and a half. I mentioned on last week's show the first look that there was value in both money lines I would have pushed in the texans because of the tie, but one of the giants I did not take that myself. So again does not count for the record, but You know feel pretty good about that. I think that the the the model was high on them Felt good about that good process bets and they they won for me as well Other bets beside those two the the spread bets there where the patriots plus three and a half The browns money line at plus one 12 we discussed it and the cardinals money line at plus 158 wolf Wolf on the cardinals wolf on the patriots. They both lost big Never gave me hope which I appreciate because I didn't have to sweat that one on the browns a lot of sweat Uh, but good movement. They didn't close as favorites for that game. I think it minus 116 or so somewhere in there So good movement there good results had to sweat it quite a bit But did get the win there and then the one uh prop I discussed last night was no offense under 24 and a half receiving yards He finished at uh 16 yards, I believe so out of the one prop win there as so four and two week overall The cardinals won maddening the patriots sucked and that was frustrating But overall feel pretty good about the way that last week went Finally, we had JJ Zach racing on to talk props last week over on friday His week was similar to drew where bad luck in his corner, but I think good process bets JJ had davis mills over 217.5 at minus 115 I believe that one hit before overtime He was like right on the number early on that game then they just ran for the entire second half I believe he got there before overtime though So over 217 and a half that one cashed regardless JJ had antonio gibson over 58 and a half rushing yards He finished with exactly 58 brutal beat there uh for JJ But again, I think the the thought process was there uh for JJ on that one touchdown bets were mike davis and josh palmer anytime touchdowns at plus 150 Plus 340 respectively, then he had matt ryan over one and a half touchdowns at plus 102 The plus money bets did not hit davis mills did so close on gibson So um just bad luck uh for JJ and drew this past week but good starts for both ed and ryan I feel pretty good about how things started for myself as well despite beating my head against the wall of the cardinals We'll see if that happens again this week, but uh overall pretty good start to the week Uh to the to the year for the podcast here We'll keep these covering the past segments on tuesdays for accountability purposes So if you want to hear how we did and decide do I agree with them? Should I bet this check things out on tuesdays after the first look and we'll go through all of that That's all that we have here for today though our college football betting preview coming up tomorrow We'll have ed feng on once again to get his read on his favorite bets of the week And we'll talk about see if ed can move to four or no or five or no as well on that side of things We'll have our full nfl week preview coming up on thursday with ryan williams and our player prop preview Coming up on friday with jj zack recent to get all those make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast and if you're enjoying what you're hearing if you're winning some money out there Leave us a rating and review because that does help us out a bunch big Thank you to rob freedman at pitching ninja for joining us and talking about strikeout props. He likes for today Check out rob on twitter uh at pitching ninja. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s Thank you all for tuning in. Good luck to you with your mlb strikeout props for tuesday night We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down college football week number three This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network