 At long last, we are finally back to turning left exclusively for this weekend in NASCAR DFS as the NASCAR Cup Series going to Michigan for the Fire Keepers Casino 400. That is this weekend, the first oval race in about a month since before the Olympics. So it's been a hot second, which means we have to go back to our basics with ovals and try to decide how to play things for DFS. The good thing is that the starting order for this week aligns perfectly with our optimal strategy for this week so we can get set and dive on in and let you know who we feel best about for DFS. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by NumberFire. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Here to break down Sunday's Fire Keepers Casino 400. It's at 3 p.m. Eastern on Sunday and the lineup has already been set. The starting order has been set. So as we go along for today, you can feel free to fill out lineups and get those entered before Sunday's race. So plenty of time to do so for right now. Before we dive in, a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the NumberFire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast. Because this weekend we have MLB for Friday. We have USC for this weekend, the Austin Swain. I've got NASCAR right now and plenty more to come next week as well. NFL just around the corner. So make sure you search for the NumberFire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast. Hit subscribe. And while you're there, if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. Hey sports fans, Fandals offering an exclusive promotion for new sportsbook users. Join Fandals Sportsbook today and get your first or make your first bet. If you lose, we'll give you a refund up to $1,000 in psych credit within 72 hours. Your first bet after depositing will qualify. If you have multiple selections on one bet slip, it will be the first selection you made. Head over to Fandals Sportsbook today and place your first bet. Must be 21 plus and present Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia. New users only. Max bonus $1,000 psych credit. See full terms at sportsbook.fandals.com. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER and call our Wada, 1-800-522-4700. In Iowa, 100 bets off. In Indiana, 1-800-9 with it. For Conference of Michigan, 1-800-270-7117. In Tennessee, call the red line at 1-800-889-979. Or in West Virginia, visit 1-800-GAMBLER.net. Let's take a look at the track breakdown here for the Fire Keepers Casino 400. Again, we are back on an oval for the first time in about a month. And there are just 200 laps in this race, which is shorter than a lot of other oval races, but it's still more than double what we've had the past two weeks at Watkins Glen and then at Indy. So it's going to be a very different construction the past two weeks. And despite the fact that it's not as long as a lot of oval races, we do still need at least one lap leader in each lineup. That is because this is a track where you see a lot of drivers dominate the race. You see a driver jump out, lead a bunch of laps, and rack up those lap lead points on FanDuel.com. They have had four races at this track since switching to the 550 horsepower package. And the intention of the package was to keep the pack closer, try to generate some pack racing and stuff like that. And we've seen that at times for sure. But we've still seen one driver lead at least half the laps in three of the four races in Michigan. In one of those races, Joey Logano started in the pole, blocked all day long, led 163 laps and won that race. He did not have the fastest car that day, but he was still able to keep that car out front, lead laps and win that day. And we can very well see someone get the 10 bonus points for laps led. That's 100 laps led. That's half the race. I think the odds that happening are very high this weekend. And as a result of that, you do want a lap leader in each lineup. Luckily for us, it's not too hard to determine who that guy will be. Kyle Larson is starting on the pole this weekend. He is the most likely winner in my simulations for good reason. He could absolutely mop up during this race. So obviously with Larson being on the pole, there is no place differential upside. But it doesn't matter because he's still fully viable here. There are more than enough laps to justify it. The next three most likely winners are Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin. They're also all starting inside the top 10. So what I would do is get one of those drivers up front who you think can win this race, someone you think can dominate, lead a bunch of laps and plug that driver into each lineup. Get one of those guys in each lineup to make sure you have the potential dominator on your roster. Your second guy, your second stud, that's where you can get some place differential. But you've got some leeway here. You could go with the second guy up front, try to get two lap leaders, but you can also get some place differential for your second stud. In last year's double header, the second race, Kevin Harvick started 20th because he won the first race. He's still led more than half the laps and won the race. So if you're fast, you can make up ground here. Passing the leader is tough. Making passes in general is fine if you're fast enough to do so. And we have some guys starting deeper in the field who could realistically win this race. We've got William Byron and Brad Keselowski. They're starting right in the middle of the field. They rank fifth and sixth in my winsims, respectively. You can easily pair those guys with Larson, get the lap's lead potential from Larson, the place differential upside from those guys, and feel good about your lineup. Those place differential guys are very viable for this week, but they're also more the exception than the norm. We're likely going to have to be okay using some value plays starting closer to the front because the most part, outside of the Byron, Keselowski's and Leganos, most of the good drivers here are starting towards the front of the pack. Of the top 20 drivers in my model for this race, only three drivers are starting outside the top 20. None of them are starting lower than 28th. So we do have some place differential guys, like Christopher Bell's back there further, Austin Dillon's back there, but it's a very different outlook than we've had recently with the road courses. We're going to have more of a front-centric approach than we've had the past couple of weeks. Let's turn for both the studs and for the value plays because we do want to get a lap leader up front and then for the value plays more so out of necessity than how you want to play things in general, we're going to be forced to go towards guys at the front just because we need speed. And that's kind of the overall takeaway here, is you need to make sure your drivers have speed. It doesn't matter where they start, they got to be fast because Michigan is the fastest track on the schedule. If you don't have speed, you're not going to finish well. If you don't finish well, you're not going to score well for DFS. I think the best way to judge speed this week is just by looking at all the races in the 550 horsepower package in a blender, basically. We've got eight races in this package on non-drapping tracks thus far. Those races are two in Pocono. That's likely our closest parallel because it's two and a half miles. Michigan is two miles. A lot of speed required in Pocono, too. All the others in the sample are one and a half miles. Plus, there's low tire wear at Pocono, which is similar to Michigan. After that, I would look at the tracks with the lower tire wear that were the one half mile track. So that's Charlotte and that's Las Vegas. After that, I put the one half mile tracks with more tire wear in one bucket. That is the two Atlanta races, Kansas and Homestead. So I do want to blend them all together, get a picture of raw speed because that matters a lot. In Michigan, we do want to find the fastest drivers, but I would put extra emphasis on Pocono, followed by Charlotte and Vegas, and then the rest in there as well. So to recap our strategy for the Sunday race in Michigan, get a lap leader at the front who you think can dominate the race. And again, the starting order does set up well for that with the four most likely winners, all starting inside the top nine spots. Feel free to have your second studs start further back. We've got options there with Byron, Kezalowski, and Legano. But don't feel forced to use one of those three guys. There are enough laps here to justify having two guys towards the front. Denny Hamlin starting ninth is a fully fine second stud. So feel free to refer the back of your second stud, but you don't need to necessarily. I will probably have to feel okay using some value play starting closer to the front. It's not the most comfortable feeling, but I do think it'll be necessary for this week. Just get fast cars regardless of where those cars are starting and lean on Pocono to judge who will be those fast cars this week. Then Charlotte, then Vegas, but just in general overall, you want raw speed in the 550 horsepower package. That's the best signal we will get for this race. If you do all that, you should have a good start here on identifying fast cars, identifying who can make up ground, identifying who can finish well after starting towards the front, and who can score well for DFS. And because it's starting order to set, we can go through the tier by tier breakdown and let you know my favorite drivers for Sunday's race. Let's do that right now. Starting off with the Elite tier, that is Kyle Larson at $14,500 on Fandula through Chase Elliott at $12,500. And Larson is the top guy here by a decent chunk. He leads my model in projected average driving position by more than a full position. That is stupid. Like, that is outrageous how much better Larson is than everyone else in my model. And he gets their thanks to both his current form, which you know of, but also his track history, because Larson won here three times when he was a Chip Ganassi racing. That was when he was in, I would say mid-tier equipment. Now, he has the fastest car in NASCAR. He's starting the pole. He has 20% win odds in my simulations. And personally, I'd go above that as well. And he can pay off without winning thanks to his domination potential, potentially laps and run out front a bunch. So I think that Larson is the top guy in this field by a margin, no question. Kyle Larson number one for sure. Among the other guys in this tier, give me Kyle Busch for sure in second. He has been tremendous in the 550 horsepower package so far this year. Larson and Busch in eight races has six podium finishes. That includes five in a row. He has won twice. He won one Pocono race and he was second in the other. He and Larson are the class of the field in this package right now. So I'm going to treat them as such. And you know, I think there will be times where I go with the two Kiles, stacking Kiles in the same lineup, Larson and Busch. There are some value plays I do like. So that's fine, but I'm also okay dipping down for that second person who is going with Larson by himself or Busch by himself and then going more balanced than there. So this tier to me is ranked Larson one, Busch two, chase Elliott three and then Martin Truex Jr. Number four. The second tier on Fandall is Kevin Harvick at $12,000 through Alex Bowman at $10,000. And this is where the place differential options are that I alluded to before. We'll talk with them first and then talk about why I like Denny Hamlin at 11.5. The guys starting further back are William Byron and Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano. And in that exact order, Byron one, Keselowski two, Logano three. Byron has a win on a 550 track already this year. That was back in Homestead. He had a podium finish back in Pocono. He ranks fifth in win odds in my simulations as mentioned and will start 18th. We love that for DFS and I think that Byron is a play for cash games, potentially the play for cash games for this week. Keselowski ranked second. He has the edge over Logano for sure in this package. He also like Byron at a podium finish in Pocono. He had really strong runs in Vegas in Kansas and Vegas is a low tire wear track, low tire fall off track. So that's impactful there. Keselowski $10,300 starting back in 20th. So I think that Keselowski number two. Logano just hasn't had as much upside as those two guys. He's starting 19th, $10,500. So I'm kind of obligated to consider him, but Logano hasn't had upside in this package. So to me, those guys ranked Byron and Keselowski one two and it's here by their own. And then Logano is a tear back among the place differential guys. I do want to get some Hamlin closer to the front though. He has not won yet this year, but he's had speed in this package. He has three fourth place finishes. He's been pretty strong at this track specifically in the past. He's starting in ninth. So a little bit of place differential juice with Hamlin as well. Not as much as with Byron and Keselowski, but there is still some there as well. And I don't want to gloss over him. So I'm going to rank this tier Byron one, Keselowski two, Hamlin three, above Logano. So even though Logano is starting deeper, I like Hamlin's win potential more. So Byron, Keselowski, Hamlin, Logano, Harvick and then Bowman. Harvick has tremendous history at this track. He's won three races here, but his form in this package is what I care more about. And it's too underwhelming for me to rank him above the other. So I'm okay being underweight on Harvick for this week under the assumption people will go there as a result of the track history. The mid-range is Ryan Blaney at $9,500 through Ross Chastain at $8,000. And Christopher Bell is starting deeper in the pack. I think he's fine. And that's intentionally phrased that way. He hasn't been a stout in the 550 horsepower package this year. He has only two top 10 finishes in eight races. And part of that is due to variance because he's had a couple of races where he's had a good average running position but didn't finish well. And that's why my model likes him because it operates more based on the peripherals than the finishes. So that's why it does you Bell pretty favorably. And I do like him. I just don't love him. So I think Bell is a good cash gameplay. But for tournaments, I am willing to pivot. I think that a good pivot off of Bell for tournaments is Tyler Redick. He's starting back in 14. So he's not nearly as big of a place differential guy as Bell is. But I love his finishing upside. Redick has five top 10s in eight races in this package. He was 11th and another. He has second place finish in Homestead. We saw Redick have an eighth place average running position in Charlotte, which is a low wear track as well. So I think that it's realistic to expect Tyler Redick to contend for a top five finish here this week. And if you get that at $8,500, it doesn't matter where he starts. And I keep starting like 30, starting 14. So I think that if I had a single entry tournament lineup, I would go Redick over Bell for this weekend. That might be contrarian. I hope it is. But I think that that is the way to play things for this week. Bell for cash games. And then going with Redick for tournaments. I'm also likely to be underweight on Ross Chastain. Starting back in 20 seconds, he has not been very good in this package. Just underwhelming, I would say, across the board. So I'll rank this tier Bell one straight up. Then Redick. The Redick again, higher for single entry tournaments. Kurt Busch three, Ryan Laney four, and then Ross Chastain, number five. The value tier is Austin Dillon at $7,500 or Chris Buscher at $5,700. And Austin Dillon is another guy who could be a cash game consideration. Probably pretty close to a lock, I would say for me in cash games. He's starting 26, that's $7,500. And he should have good speed here because Dillon had good runs in Charlotte, Kansas and Pocono. Two of those are low wear tracks. He's also shown speed on this track type in the past. RCR tends to have good speed on the really big tracks. And Dillon is a good source of finishing potential and some place differential at a low salary at $7,500. So Austin Dillon to me, cash game consideration in a very good tournament play as well. For tournaments, I'm also pretty interested in Bubba Wallace. He's starting 15th at $6,500. And we've seen him improve a lot at the $5,50 tracks recently. He had a top 15-hour journey position in Charlotte, both Pocono races and Atlanta. He had some good speed in Michigan last year as also run well in Indianapolis on the Oval, which is more similar to Michigan than a lot of other tracks. So I think he knows how to run these tracks pretty well. Should have good speed via 23-11 racing. So I am not opposed to Bubba Wallace but would rank him a good chunk behind Dillon. This tier to me is Dillon 1, Wallace 2. Daniel Suarez 3, starting back in 30th, hasn't had the best speed in this package, but starting 30th, super low salary at $6,000. So I'll still get there, but the performance is a bit more concerning. And then Eric Almerola at number four this year for me. The punting tier is Chase Briscoe at $5,500 on down. There are some interesting guys here and one who I think is my favorite is Michael McDowell. He is $4,000 and starting 25th. We saw McDowell have good runs in both the Pocono races. And he's had a top 20 finish in all but one race in this package so far this year. So yeah, the upside is limited but he's $4,000 starting 25th. If you get that, if you get a top 20 finish out of that, that can pay off because it gives you upside elsewhere. So I'm going to rank McDowell number one. Ryan Price is second simply because he's starting so deep in the pack. I'm not super optimistic about him but he did a good finish in the second Pocono race. Chase Briscoe's after that. Cole Custer, at least worth looking at but if I don't get there in my player pool for this week, it's not going to break my heart. So to me, it's really more about Michael McDowell and the punting tier. Maybe some priests, maybe some Briscoe, maybe some Custer but not trying to be over exposed to anyone down here due to the kept finishing upside. Let's finish up here at the Winpix for this Michigan race. One guy in the the sour range above $10,000. One guy below for the guy above. I cannot go against my simulations. They have Kyle Larson number one. I think that they're potentially underrating him a bit. So I'll go Kyle Larson with my Winpix in the top tier guys. The highest win odds for a guy below $10,000 is something I didn't discuss too much during the tier by tier breakdown but that's Ryan Blaney. Didn't discuss him that much because he's starting third. So you kind of need to win or finish top five to pay off for DFS but I mean he does have 3.9% win odds in my simulations 14.4% podium odds. That's not nothing. Had a really good run in the first Michigan race last year. Got wrecked with Kezalowski in the second race. So I, you know I think you could win probably not going to be very high on him for DFS but from just doing Winpix here below $10,000 Ryan Blaney would be my pick. So the picks to win for this week one stud and one below Larson and Blaney for Michigan. That is all that we have here for today on the heat check fantasy podcast as we send you off now to what should be a fun weekend between UFC, MLB and hopefully some sweats for PGA as well. Once again, make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast wherever you get your podcast. While you're there make sure you leave us a rating and review as well. If you have questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S I won't be around too much this weekend I'm out in Denver for the FanDuel World Fantasy Baseball Championship and then the FanDuel FanFest at the Broncos Stadium. So busy this week with FanDuel stuff but should have time to fill up some lineups later on so hit me up on Twitter if you have questions I'll try to get them at some point throughout this weekend also make sure you follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast big thank you everyone for tuning in for today good luck to you with your ML or with your NASCAR DFS lineups we'll talk to you once again next week this has been the Heat Check Fantasy Podcast powered by number fire