 Welcome back. It's still the breakfast on plus TV Africa. The National Human Rights Commission on Sunday raised concern over the rising food crisis in the country, saying it had a worsened access to healthy and nutritious food, especially among intently displaced persons and vulnerable groups, leading to increase in widespread hunger and low quality of life. Now, the commission attributed the scenario to several factors, including insecurity, chasing farmers from their farms, coupled with many farmlands being submerged in water due to the flooding situation in parts of the country. Today, we're hearing 33 states affected. According to a statement by the National Human Rights Commission, through its deputy director of public affairs and external linkages, Fatima Aguai-Mahamed, she says the executive secretary of the commission, Chief Tony Ojuku, stated this in a boujah class, Nigeria joins the global community to celebrate the world food day, which is held on October 16th every year. We're glad to say we have joining us on the breakfast to discuss the situation of a food crisis. Is there really a food crisis in Nigeria? Mr. Kelvin Imanu, who happens to be an agricultural and agro-expert. Kelvin Imanu, thank you very much for your time. And we're glad to have you join us on plus TV Africa. Thank you. Thank you so much for having us. Do you agree with the position of the National Human Rights Commission when they say there is a food crisis in Nigeria as we speak? Yes. Yes, there is a food crisis in Nigeria. Before the old flooding situation started, there was already a food crisis. Because if you look at the major commodities that are consumed, things like rice, like wheat, maize, maize is like 65% of all the maize grown in Nigeria. It's actually more feed, for example. So you have the likes of maize flour, you have cereals that are eaten all over the country on a daily basis. There was already like a 5-6 million tonne shortage of maize before this whole flooding situation started. There was already like a shortage of wheat in Nigeria that has cost the price, the hike on the price of bread. And there was also a shortage of rice. So this whole flooding situation is exacerbated and it's a real crisis because quite a number of, a third of the country is currently under water. And quite a number of commercial farms are currently being taken over by flood. So the whole flooding situation has just made a bad situation worse. And it's going to reflect in inflation numbers that the MPS will release this week. I expect that food inflation is going to come out at least 25% from current 23.2%. And the situation is only going to get worse over the coming months in Nigeria. So we're just beginning to see the acceleration of food inflation in Nigeria. Well, prior to this time, we're very aware of the situation in the north central part of Nigeria, on the northern part of Nigeria, if you like to say, following, you know, violence and conflict that has resulted to it. And as much, we've also had families, you know, asking that government should step in to help ensure that the effects is actually taken away. But for the want of time, let's get to it. Do you think anything can really be done at this point in time? Security concerns with the flooding issue to help, you know, solve the problem? Well, to be honest with you, it's too late in the day. And the reason is because if you think, was it a week or two ago, I noted on how the Nigerian government has been very responsible. They made the whole situation of the flow of climate change, which is a convenient excuse that the government exists for nearly every problem we have in Nigeria. For example, food inflation started re-accelerating and the Nigerian government started playing with Russia and Ukraine. But even before Russia and Ukraine, there was food crisis in Nigeria. The situation in the north, the insecurity in the north that caught down the production, the output of food by about 50 percent, is even now worsened by the flood situation. Of course, the situation is because of the lack of dam in northern Cameroa, you know. If you go back in time, you realize that in 1982, Nigeria signed an MOU with Cameroonian government that was going to build a buffer dam called Dasin Hausa Dam, Ndamawa State and also in Katina, Allah, to try to create like a buffer for the current of flow of the water coming from that dam. And that dam is primarily responsible for the whole flood situation in Nigeria. It has completely nothing to do with climate change, you know. And Nigerian meteorological agents warned about the situation early this year that there was going to be a situation like this. Nigerian government is taking precaution. So it's very little data. There's practically nothing it can do because you have to graduate with Nigeria. You have to build like two dams to create buffers. I just said this morning that the Nigerian government is going to send a dedication to Cameroon. That is not going to achieve anything. So the whole situation in the north central, with insecurity, with flooding, it's too late in the day. There's nothing it can do. And it's really, really unfortunate that considering the situation in Nigeria today, the government is quiet. It's not silent. The Vice President, sitting tight here in Abudia, they've not shown any constant, they've not gone to be big teams, not set up IDP camps, the government has not provided any guidance on relief. I heard it's going to release about, I think, 300 metric tons of grains from national soil, strategic grain reserve. That's not going to leave the fingers or, you know, I'm already part of the situation you have currently across Nigeria. I think they need to come up with a more realistic plan to assure people on how to prevent a repeat of this situation and provide like a buffer for a very hopeless situation you have on ground across Nigeria. And I'm also surprised that the presidential candidates have not suspended their campaigns to see, to go around the country and help people. I'm really shocked. You have a crisis. You have a crisis. And no one is saying anything. It's very, very shocking. Well, I'd like to show your thought quickly on this one. I mean, the insight that you have brought really very, very fantastic, especially when you say that we can't currently blame, you know, the food insecurity that we're faced with on climate change and the flooding prior to this time, this has actually been going on. But this morning, the reports of the federal government is blaming the flood situation, which is also going to have an impact, already having an impact on food and its production on the state and the federal government. I like that you quickly, you know, share your thoughts on that. So they are blaming the situation on the state, on the federal, on the state government. And the local government, I beg your pardon. OK, so first of all, the federal government cannot blame the situation on the local government, on the state government. Number one, because the autonomy of the local government has been at issue. So if you look at this year, the allocation of federal allocation for the resource mobilisation and federal allocation commission, I remember FAC, that controls the FAC. You see that the formula currently is about 5529, 16, federal, state, local government, federal government gets 5 percent, state gets 29 percent, local government gets 16 percent, if I'm not mistaken. You have to ask the presidency what has been the autonomy and distribution of resources to the local governments over the years. Number one, at local governments and part of the grassroots to really create strategies to really ensure that this situation, this ecological crisis you have in Nigeria does not pose a threat. Number two, have the governments been effective with the ecological funds that they've gotten over the past years? Or has those ecological funds been siphoned, or have there been no consequences? Number three, has the federal government done what is supposed to ensure that it dredges the River Niger? I remember during the Good Love Journal 2012 or 2011, they awarded the project, the contract to Nigeria through a new one, Nigeria without its authority, about four billion to dredge the River Niger, bordering around Lukuja and the many tributaries. That was not done, you know. And that project was not taken seriously. And nine metres in one for several years, that this kind of situation might happen if the River Niger is not dredged, number two. So has the federal government done what is supposed to ensure that credit buffer dams to break the current and regulate the flow of water from northern Cameroon? Lakdodam is a dam that provides electricity for a major part of Cameroon, and also acts as a buffer for the flow of current of water when the rainfall, this thing is very high. So has the federal government done what is supposed to do? No. The answer is no, it has. It has always paid in service to this issue, and it's not done anything about it. So the lack of coordination, I won't put any blame on the local government. The lack of coordination between the federal government and the state government is the reason why you have the current situation in Nigeria. And let me just say this, let me just say this. It's unfortunate that at the time when you have the a major part of Kogi state is submerged, yeah, and you have a crisis, a lot of people have been internally displaced, the last numbers I heard is that 500 plus people are dead and 1.4 million people are displaced. Yeah, the governor of Kogi state sent talks, more than 500 talks, to go to Obajana, a shutdown dangute cement, which is the largest cement plant in the whole of Africa. And those talks injured 26 people, one of them is currently in ICU. Yeah, and dangute cement plant has been shot down for quite a number of days. The major part of the Northwest currently does not have cement for production. Is that easy? All right. Interesting point you've raised there, Kelvin and Mano. You talked about the 12,000 metric tons of food items approved by the president from the National Strategic Reserve for distribution to communities affected by flooding across the country. And you said that may not be enough. But I'm just to expand on that. Last time I checked Nigeria has not less than 33 silos, if I'm not mistaken. What is the state of the country's food reserves? Do we have all these silos properly stockpiled that are being maintained enough to be able to take us through at least the foreseeable immediate future through this crisis? Companies are struggling to get supplies to produce. So it's and the last I heard government was buying grains at a premium of about 15, 20,000 per metric ton. So if you consider the situation I explained where you have a shortage of somewhere around two million metric tons of weeds, you have a shortage of somewhere around like 30 million metric tons of paddy. You have a shortage of mace, about five to six million metric tons. It's very difficult for the government to be able to stockpile national strategy reserves to ensure that there's enough to feed in situations like these where you need buffers for the people. So for me, considering that there is already an existing food crisis, the release from the strategic grain reserves is not going to do much. Because there was already an existing crisis that has been made of us by the displacement of people. I heard that in Bios are currently the entire state shut off from supply of PMS and video and DPK because most of the roads that leads in from how the river states from Delta State, Batani are completely cut off. The road that leads out from the airport in Pasoma down to the main town yet it's been cut off completely by floods. It's been divided into two. So there is no way you can come in by air. There's no way you can come in by road. So people are displaced in Bios are in Yenedwar. People cannot get food. They are on the roads. They cannot get fuel. Half of the state is currently without power. So for me, I don't see at this point in time, the only people that can help if the situation gets worse, for example, in a state like Bios are is the Air Force. They have to find like an air strip and flying supplies to help people. So I don't see how the release from the grain reserves is going to move to the needle. If the government doesn't come out with a holistic, logistic plan, it's already the situation that people currently have on ground. I don't say it because how do you want to distribute the supplies of food to different parts of the country? I just give you an example where they go, what is going on right there right now. So I don't and I've not seen any plan. They say they're releasing it. What's the plan to distribute it around the country? All right. So quickly, as we close this conversation down, Kelvin, what would you say would be the implication for this? All of, I mean, the fact that we have the flood, food crisis, very eminent, what's the implication? The implication is that food inflation is going to accelerate, like I said, I think to be on tomorrow. What does that mean? I mean, to be very, you know, clear or simple. So food inflation continues on. It's going to be more difficult for people to get food and the prices, of course, will continue to go up because the situation of supply, supply side problem, demand being higher than supply. It's going to present more stark reality for the elections in 2023, because quite a number of the people contesting for offices will use it as an opportunity to provide stomach infrastructure in exchange for votes. Unfortunately, situation continues and they will use their campaign will become okay, provide small five cage of rice, small bags of rice and oil to in exchange for votes, both buying, basically. That's the implication. It's just unfortunate. It's unfortunate that you have a country to be aware when you look at the numbers, you realize that a major part of the income of people goes into food. I buy a loaf of bread for a thousand and a thousand two hundred now. Right now it's become the new reality. So for people who are unable to afford bread, for example, you can imagine that people are not able to eat bread, which is a normal a staple. They are not able to eat bread. So if this situation continues like this, people are going to basically be using all their income and borrowing to buy food. And it's going to result in vote buying for the elections. And it makes me wonder honestly if the government is really like deliberate about the provision of people, they are not able to afford food so that they can use, exchange people's choice and pose for their stomach. Okay. So very quickly, finally, I want to tell us what the state governments can do, because I know some of them are going through a difficult time, like you mentioned, Biasa State and Corby State. But while we've looked at what the federal government should be doing, what can the state governments do? That's number one. Number two, what can individuals and households do to be able to take themselves through this period and the expectant predicted worsening of the situation? That's number two. And number three, what should an incoming administration do differently to make sure we don't get into such a corner? So first of all, for the states that are critically affected, like Biasa, for example, I expect that the state government should collect state of emergency so that Nigerian Air Force can come in. Myanmar can come in, the Air Force can come in because the state is completely cut off from the entire country. You can only use cargo aircrafts to bring supplies for the people, medicine, food and the likes. You also can also have Red Cross and all the international aid agencies to come to help the situation. I also am encouraging the state governments to more deliberate with the ecological funds and realize that it's not when you have a crisis that you start planning for a crisis. It's already too late for you to start planning for a crisis when you already have a crisis. That's why you have the ecological funds in the first place. So that you can use those funds to put structures on the ground to create drainages, to create all kinds of both fires. Maybe this will encourage state governments to also develop their own turnout grain reserves so that when they have issues like this, they don't wait for the federal government to come to their aid. They can make me solve a problem. I also encourage state governments to create some kind of fund, relief fund for people to ensure that the people that have their properties destroyed, they can have mixed accommodation and food until they are able to find a solution to their problem permanently. Because quite a number of people, their homes have been destroyed and it's going to take a while for them to come back from the situation. Now for what can families do, it's important for families that are currently in hotspots. Situations that are here are very vulnerable to see how they can move away to more safe areas. It's important for them to stack supplies to see that if they're ever caught in like they are displaced, they are going to be able to take care of themselves. For the incoming administration, for me the most important thing is for them to accelerate and fast-track the process of building a buffer dam in Adamawa, in Taraba State, Katsina Alla, and also in Benway State. It's important for them to, new administration to have new one, join Inland Waterways Authority to dredge river Niger to prevent the repeat because it's like this happens every two to three years so most likely in two or three years or even next year, this might happen again. So it's important, I didn't see any benefit from Nigerian delegation to Cameroon like unwinding the current crisis you have currently. So what the government can do is to prevent the repeats of the situation. The next government has a task to immediately build those dams to break the current and ensure that this kind of situation doesn't happen again. And it's also important that the government, and I'll say this, so in 2010, I remember I was sitting in a conference where the then Minister of Trade and Investment, Ulyssia Gwaganga before he handed over to Kojewela, was speaking about then the proposed the Nigerian sovereign wealth fund was still on the proposed outstage, was speaking about the benefits and it was encouraging the Nigerian government fund to allow them to collapse the excess good accounts into sovereign wealth fund. That was not heated. So the sovereign wealth fund for example has Nigerian infrastructure fund, stability fund, future generation fund. So for example, this crisis you have the stability fund, stability fund in that sovereign wealth fund to act as a buffer and provide emergency relief for Nigerians. This is a lesson to the Nigerian governor's forum that is important for you to divert free money that is not being used instead of shared among governors for their personal and investment into the sovereign wealth fund for investment and future related for people. Okay, okay. Very interesting suggestion, Kelvin Imano, we've taken this down memory lane and you know sometimes it's important to remember what transpired some years ago to know where we are today. Just reminded us of some things. So thank you so much for joining us on short notice and for giving us very expert analysis. We're grateful for your time Kelvin. Thank you for having the coffee. Nice to meet you too. All right, that's Kelvin Imano, he's an agro expert. Merci, a lot to talk about him on the back. I wish you had more time but we have to go. Well, this conversation will never end and the flood will still with us and not to sound very you know not positive but it feels like it will always be with us until we do the need for but that's the size of our conversation this morning on the breakfast. If you missed out on any part it will be fine to follow us on Facebook, Instagram and YouTube subscribe to our channels at Plus TV Africa and Plus TV Africa lifestyle. My name is Messi Bupur, have a great day. And my name is Kofi Bartel, today's in the public holiday, I don't know what happened to me but we'll return tomorrow with more on the breakfast. Good morning.