 I go, look, let's see if we could get a day two rally. I'm skeptical based on this, because again, the Q's would have to be... Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition, Fed edition of the access a trader.com nightly wrap-up show. Hope everybody had a good day. So today was Fed day earlier in the week. There was hinted that there was going to be a 75 basis plain hike and the question was, were they going to commit to this? And the question going forward is, what was their plans for the future? So we got the 75 base point hike. They basically said that this is not going to be a normal occurrence. They did say though, in July, they're looking for another one somewhere between the 50 and the 75 base points. But again, rest assured, it's not going to be a normal thing. We'll see, right? One day at a time, that's all we could live for. And yesterday, if you guys remember yesterday, the bulls had every opportunity to rally and they just couldn't do it. They just absolutely couldn't do it. After 34, 35 points on the queues to the downside in the last three, four days while losing the 20 day moving average, the queues were up 50 cents yesterday. And the question was, well, what was going to happen today? And the one thing that we always talk about is, don't try to predict, okay? If you're in the business of trying to be right and impressing some 14 year old on TikTok, how smart and brilliant you are, number one, remember, we're all idiots, okay? We know nothing. We know absolutely nothing. The only thing we know is the data that we are bringing in that everybody has right in front of them. And we're trying to make an educational decision. We're trying to make a thought provoking decision that is going to put our money, not only in a place that is safe, but it could thrive at the same time. And going into this session, I kind of, you know, I had both sides. You know, I was kind of planning on both sides today. We'll talk about the pivots in a second. So it wasn't one of those scenarios today that there was 25 pivots long, 25 pivots short. It was more like, well, let's see what we can get, right? Let's see what we can get. And then let's kind of move on after the Fed. And this is kind of what we're on today, right? And the way the day played out was pretty similar. I think this was, you know, a small win for the bulls. I think that's the best way of saying it. I was talking about in the webinar prior, prior to the Fed that I believe that at any day, right? If any day the Fed was going to spark any type of desire for bulls to start rallying and put into 500 to 1,000 point move today, today would have been the day. Because again, if you look at, if you look at what the diamonds have done in the last, you know, three, four days, you know, we went down, what, 1,800, 1,900 points. So the idea that we could have rallied back today 500 or 1,000 points, wouldn't have been outlandish at all, not at all. But instead, you know, bulls did okay today. I think that's the best way of saying it. They did okay, 1% rise for the Dow, doesn't really turn the needle, 2.5% rise by the cues. And here's kind of the important point. And this was the first day that I could honestly say for a while, I mean, going back to since we lost the bottom channel here, it kind of felt okay today, right? Like names like Amazon that were weak all week, say that five times fast, they were weak all week, right? Was actually holding up today pretty well. A name like Tesla today, there was a blog that came out that called Tesla fraud, right? Fraud, this, that, the other thing. Right, there's not a million Tesla's on the road. They're the worst, absolutely the worst. Remember the worst, best stock, worst car. Obviously I'm joking, I love the car, I love the stock, but even with a hit piece or quote unquote hit piece by a blog, Tesla held up very, very well. And the one thing that we did notice when they did release the notes, right? Notes from the meeting and Powell was speaking, they tried to get the Nasdaq down several times, they just couldn't do it. And that was a very, very important theme for today. Bulls actually held their ground. We actually did see some pretty good option flow today. All day, we saw going into the Fed, we saw 106, 107, 110, 111 and a half's short-term expiration for Amazon. We saw some 680, 700, 745s for Tesla. The one stock that's still giving me a little bit, I'm trying to digest what they're doing. We're still seeing a lot of bets on Apple even when the market was rising. We still saw a good amount of bets for the 130 weekly puts, considering there's two days of expiration, the stock was moving up a little bit towards the afternoon. It's kind of odd. Same thing with the video, right? Same thing with the video. They were hitting those puts pretty aggressively. So again, something just to watch for the next couple of days. Now look, are we out of the woods? Absolutely not, right? I mean, 100% absolutely not. All we did today was we had a nice rally. That's all it was on the face value. You can see this orange line. If you've watched this video for a while, you kind of know the importance of the five-day moving average. That is the short-term sentiment. As you can see here, the Q's got rejected off the five-day moving average. If you look at the spies, right? Same thing, right? Spies traded up to the five-day moving average, rejected. If you look at the IWM, right? They didn't quite make it to the five-day moving average, but this is kind of where we are today. Now again, if you're a bull, beggars can't be choosers. I think at this type of environment, I think any day that you can get a green day is a good day, right? You're kind of buying your time, but here's the problem. When the bulls can't reclaim the shortest-term sentiment, right? That's usually, that's not a great sign. It's really not. And I tweeted out on the private Twitter feed today. I go, look, let's see if we could get a day two rally. I'm skeptical based on this, because again, the queues would have to reclaim today's highs. The spies would have to reclaim today's highs, but I'm ready, you know, I'm ready. I put a bunch of longs on the list for tomorrow, but you know, I am skeptical. And if you guys look at the last Fed meeting that we actually did have a thousand-point rally in the Fed, the next three, you know, the next day, this candle completely engulfed the three days of buying and started another selling cycle. So, you know, listen, one day at a time, right? I think that's the best way of saying, when you're trading on the long side in a bear market cycle, again, what are you hoping for, right? And you're hoping for sellers get tired and we start the rally. That's exactly what happened to the bottom of the range here. The problem was after the consolidation of two weeks, they lost the 20-day that they worked so hard to reclaim only to take out the low. So it's very, very tough to get excited here, but at least let's give the bulls the benefit of the doubt for tomorrow. Again, I'm still, you know, pretty skeptical, but hey, let's see, you know, you never know. But if we start losing ranges tomorrow, again, guys, at the end of the day, the overall theme was, we're still in a bear market scenario. You know, as long as we stay below in the 50-day moving average hell, as long as we stay below now, the five-day moving average, it's gonna be very, very tough to get this market rallying. But we'll see, right? One day at a time, the only thing we could ask for is to wake up, right? To wake up in the morning, to be healthy, happy, and attack the markets with the data that we have, not the data that we want. So let's talk about today, right? There was only, I put three long pivots to the upside, I put a bunch of pivots to the downside, obviously none of the downside pivots triggered, but the ones who triggered to the upside did fairly well. So you had Amazon, Amazon yesterday, it kept on getting rejected off this 104.50 level. If you look at the 60-minute view, right? If you look at yesterday's channel, sorry about this, e-signals, it feels like it's a day-to-day thing here, e-signals still hasn't updated. But if you look at yesterday's channel, right? You will see the top of this channel, oh, excuse me, wrong channel here, here it is right here. If you look at this channel here, it's 104.50. You see it, 104.40, 104.40. So we knew if it started building above this 104.50, it was gonna start to rally. You know, nice first initial move, it started rallying, then it got up to this 106.50 level, that was the previous channel's high, and then once the Fed came out, nice run into the five day. Again, this is the same thing as the Q's and the spies did, they got rejected, but had a nice move into the 109 area again. You know, that's the whole point of technical analysis. You don't need a hundred stocks, you just need the ones that you know are going to expand if there is a reversal. Roblox never got down to 25. Tesla had two pivots today, one in the morning, one in the afternoon. 680 needs to build, rejected back to back days. First move was about six points, it was about six points, and that's when that hit piece came out, oh, whatever the hell it was, the stupid hit piece that got it gulfed two hours later. But here was the 680, right? You see it, 680, 680. So the first move was into supply, and that was the afternoon pivot, and you'll see right here, here, give me a second, all these other pivots, they never confirmed down, shop never confirmed, Netflix, Airbnb, they never confirmed down. FedEx, before we get to the Tesla, FedEx nice move here, 232.30 needs to build, this was a confirmation day two run by the increase of dividend the other day, so here is a 232.50, right? Once it got above that one to 240, nice push there, here it is, here it is. Yeah, so here is the next big area, here was the next big area of supply, 688. So it got above the 688, started building above the 688. I said there's a shot it could get to, there's a shot it could get to, yeah, right here, 689, 690 for experienced traders, for a move to 696 and 702, Tesla took out the 96, took out the 702, and traded all the way up to 707. So that's it, right? That's it, Fed day's out of the way, we did what we had to do, the Fed did what we had to do, again, is it a great economy? No, gas price is through the roof, everything's expensive, inflation, this, that, the other thing, but again, we're here, right? We're here, whatever life throws at you, you're gonna be prepared for it, and the most important part is always stay positive and keep a smile on your face. So tomorrow, again, I'd like to see a day-to-run of the bulls, but again, I'm just very, very skeptical, especially the way we got rejected on all major moving averages on the five-day moving average, but again, as they say all the time, we shall see, said the blind man. Guys, have a great night, enjoy, God bless, and I will see you all tomorrow.