 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network There have already been a bunch of moves in the NFL during its legal tampering period not even yet 24 hours old and there is a lot to react to obviously no Aaron Rodgers news definitively as of yet And I realized that by recording this I am guaranteeing something big goes down within the next half an hour So while I'm talking can't react to a live here on the air But we're gonna do today Let's go through the moves that have happened thus far and outline what they mean what they don't mean You know where teams standing based on my wind totals in my model right now We'll outline a couple of futures. We're looking at here in the divisional market with no wind totals up yet We'll talk about the impact of these moves and also talk about that Rodgers deal and say, okay Let's see what happens. How would I view the jets and the Packers if that were to occur? We'll go through that hypothetically just let you know what we're seeing things across the NFL as of right now This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire calm here As mentioned to break down what my numbers are saying about free agency thus far in the NFL outlining wind total moves Which teams have improved which teams might be on the slide? We'll break it down all that and again the Rogers the jets the potential for that We'll talk about later on as well if you're looking here for some NCAA tournament breakdowns We did record our full bracket podcast with Dr. Ed Fang and Bennett Corcoran last night That was a live stream on the Fandall YouTube page That is now up on the covering the spread podcast feed as well So if you want help breaking down your bracket check out in the insights from Ed and from Bennett's to very smart guys Get their thoughts there on Strategy and much more their final four picks championship picks to help you fill out your brackets If you want some betting thoughts on Thursdays and Fridays games both those breakdowns individual shows coming up tomorrow You're in the covering the spread podcast feed and on the Fandall YouTube page We'll get a breakdown of both those days. Let you know spreads totals money lines receive value by talking to people who know College basketball well aka not me getting their insights there those will again both be up tomorrow No show Thursday with the double episodes on Wednesday and then back with more NFL free agency breakdowns coming on Friday with Ryan Williams in here the same feet so to get all those as they are posted Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and if you like what you hear Leave us a rating and review as well this March Take your first shot at college hoops with Fandall sportsbook and get ten times your first bet amount in bonus bets up to $200 that's right. Just bet 20 bucks on the bracket and you'll land 200 in bonus bets win or lose That's 200 you can spend betting everything from the money line to point spreads that five versus twelve seed matchup You've been eyeing on an app that is safe secure and super easy to use There is no better place to bet the tournament than Fandall sportsbook Sign up today make every moment more Fandall all tournament long must be 21 plus and president select states first online a real money Wage only ten dollar deposit required refund issued is not with trouble bonus bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply see full terms at fandall comm slash sportsbook Fandall is offering online the sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with the Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandall comm slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step protects next step to 533 42 In Connecticut 1-887-89777 7 or visit ccpg.org says chat in Indiana 1-800 9 with it and in Kansas and Wyoming 1-800 5 2 2 4700 or in Kansas KS gambling help calm Louisiana 7 7 7 8 7 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in a Maryland MD gambling help dot org in New York 1-877 8 hope and wire text hoping why and in West Virginia go to 1-800 gambler net Now let's start things off here by talking about that big hypothetical in the NFL talking about Aaron Rogers the Jets I am assuming this happens today, you know typically Rogers goes in the McAfee show on Tuesdays I haven't seen that he's scheduled to go on today But you know I would could see him announcing it there But also Trey Wingo of the formula VSPN He was the one who reported yesterday that the deal was done Wingo has a good track record with Rogers news a lot Don't shifter does Wingo does so I'm gonna go ahead and put that trade in right now and outline What it would do in my numbers if I put Aaron Rogers on the New York Jets without Rogers It's pretty grim for the Jets because again I'm going in assuming it's just Zach Wilson for this year and Wilson I think was better than perception at least on early downs last year, but the late-down efficiency was awful So they would have the third lowest win total assuming it's just Zach Wilson in there I think that's probably too low based on how good their defense is but defense can you regress stuff like that with Rogers on the roster adding him to competent offensive line play and Garrett Wilson and stuff like that I have the Jets at 9.9 wins that would rank second in the AFC East behind just the Buffalo Bills And honestly, it's not super far behind the Bills Buffalo is better. They ranked fourth in my power ranking So they are a tier above the Jets even with Rogers, but the Jets are seventh with Rogers in there Both these teams have tough schedules The Jets would rank with the 10th toughest schedule the Bills would be seventh Miami would be at 9.7 wins. So they're also right there the 8th toughest schedule for them So the top of the AFC East would be super bunched up all three teams in the situation would be Within I've got the Bills at 10.3 wins. So they'd be within like 0.6 wins, which is pretty incredible It would also give the Patriots the toughest schedule in football. So They lost just lost to Kobe Myers. They do have a competent OC this year in Bill O'Brien So I have that in my model too, but it would hurt to to face this kind of schedule So if Rogers goes to the Jets, they are at least in the discussion to win the AFC East I think is is not worthy for sure They'd rank fourth among AFC teams to me my power rankings behind the cheese Bengals and Bills which may seem super high But the Packers last year were still very efficient on early downs It was just where the wheels came off in late downs Not sure if it was the thumb injury for Rogers if it was I don't know what it was honestly It was very odd that they were very good on early downs still so I think it's noteworthy that They still had that and I don't think that Rogers is washed by any means especially Once you give him a a healthy thumb and stuff like that I think you put Rogers with Garrett Wilson the rest of that offense. I think that could stabilize things. So Yeah, I'd be high in the Jets, but I think that the process to getting there is pretty fair So nine point nine wins for me for the Jets if they land Rogers despite a tough schedule I think that is high, but I also think it's correct based on my process based on stuff You know, you could consider potentially the Jets to win the AFC East at plus 220 dolphins plus 370 also kind of in that discussion with the defensive pieces they've added but I think the bigger takeaway for me is I'm not betting the bills despite They're being plus 120 to win the AFC East as of right now all three of those teams very much in the discussion As the Packers they'd be down at 7.3 wins for me. They would rank 24th my power rankings Not the best situation around them. Which is kind of why they struggled last year I do like Christian Watson. We don't know a ton about Jordan Love though My prospect model pretty low on love coming out So I think it would be fair to be low on the Packers if they didn't have Aaron Rogers They would not be at the bottom of the division, but they would be pretty close to it. So Um, I think that the Packers would be Pretty out of sight out of mind if they were to trade Aaron Rogers if this were to happen Let's talk about those bears though because they've made a lot of moves in free agency But also last week at that trade of the first overall pick a lot of splashy moves But the problem that I have in terms of modeling the bears For my win total model is and my win total model revolves around passing efficiency And and defensive passing efficiency The problem is for the bears that they've had a lot of guys who can help them a bit against the pass but also Primarily linebackers guys were going to help stop in the run stuff like that So the DJ more trade for the bears was huge It did elevate them in my win total model in a pretty significant way to add in A legitimate pass catcher to an offense that did not have that at all last year That was a big move And I do think stopping the run matters. I'm not trying to like discount that It's it just it just matters less than stopping the pass So the gains there for the bears in terms of what it does their overall win total projection not as big and I think you could look at this two ways. You could say, okay, the bears have gotten better. They definitely have I agree with that. I think that the the DJ more trade was phenomenal. I loved that They're trying to make some small gains along the offensive line. I'm on board of that but I think you could view it that one way they have improved Other way is I saw some people on twitter asking if the bears were now the best team in the nst north That's a strong person argument It is not the most common refrain Because you look at the betting markets and the bears are not up there So it is a strawman argument and I very much recognize that But it's out there the bear is three to one when the the nst north. I think that's too short I think they should be longer than that based on the current team that they have in their hand They're again still below the packers me even if I assume the packers are starting jordan love so Just don't I think what I'm trying to say is ignore the straw people out there saying the bears could be the best team in the nst north I still got them fourth. Um, they're they're still not very high for me Instead, I've got Detroit is the favorite in the nst north pretty comfortably Again, my model leans heavily on passing efficiency and the the lions were Pretty efficient through the air last year and now they get to add james and williams to replace dj shark I assume that he is gone in free agency I am worried my model is too high on the lions Both them and the jaguars potentially based on how good they were through the air last year, but I also think that these infrastructures are pretty good. Both these quarterbacks are solid So there are two teams. I don't mind buying into right now the lions plus 145 to win the nst north That's not terribly far off from being good value to me. I don't think I don't have like an actual like Odds to win the division. I just have the wind totals, but I don't think that's totally far off So I'm excited to watch justin fields excited to watch dj more excited to watch a lot of components of this new bears team I think it's just important to keep in mind that a lot of the big moves They've made have been at spots that don't impact passing or defensive passing efficiency and You want to keep expectations in check? So yes, they've been solid moves for the most part but they're not going to win them a ton of my wind total model and I think that we want to be most excited about the dj more trade more so than the terminate edmund signing or anything else The other big quarterback news of yesterday was jimmy garoppolo going to the raiders and now also today they signed jacoby mires on a believe a three-year deal and If you look at the baseline analysis of this move It was largely that it was a lateral move for the raiders to go from dera car jimmy garoppolo. They went from a non Needle moving quarterback who had proven he can be efficient in a decent offense and I agree that that's the same thing. That's another that's what garoppolo is as well so their projected efficiency for next year is about even with what it was last year and I think that you consider the two moves, you know, you Get rid of car get rid of that salary and replace it with garoppolo who's in a similar tier at a lower salary I think it's a very fair move. I don't think it's a bad move the problem is that It's not going to move the needle and again in the nfc us it kind of needs needle movers if you want to contend with the cheese I've got the raiders right now at 7.4 wins I the the broncos at 7.9 and I have a Kansas City at 12.1 The charges me actually closer to the uh to denver and they're out of Kansas City So I think it does help to have garoppolo if your goal is to be more efficient in 2023 Your goal is to be more competitive in 2023. That's a good thing You can definitely sell that as being a positive I just don't think it makes them competitive in that division necessarily so I would bet their win totals probably seven and a half. I'm a hair below that So I think they'll wind up being a stay away despite having garoppolo despite having jacoby meyers by having Devonta Adams I think it's a pretty neutral situation for me with the raiders A little bit higher on the broncos. Um, I do think I'm likely to be a bit above market on them For a couple reasons the first one is that I respect Sean Payton a lot. I think he's a very good coach I think coaching matters and I think bringing him in does help the broncos quite a bit So that's one thing the second thing is that the broncos were kind of similar to the Packers last year where they At times were decently efficient on early downs, but They could not convert to save their lives when accounted. They were Terrible on third down terrible in the red zone So those are concerns those are spots where you need to convert and they did not last year But maybe bringing in Sean Payton helps them maybe bulking up the offensive line was they had done helps them So I think we'll see a bounce back here now This does not mean to bet them to win the a fc west not saying that uh, but they are plus 460 to win there The Chargers plus 350. I think that what I want to do is Once we get kind of like exact kind of markets up like teams to finish exactly exposition like betting the cheese to win broncos second could be a route you could go in terms of Looking at the a fc west. I think the broncos are closer to the Chargers than perception right now and That's a takeaway again 7.9 wins to the broncos for me is not high but They're within striking distance of competency and I think that that's better than what it was last year so At least keeping a close eye on them and I want to see once those markets do go up What we can get for the broncos because I would be okay Potentially buying into them there Those are the teams that have made moves in terms of gaining guys Let's talk about some teams that have I think slid back recently now. This is post Derek Carr So we put Derek Carr in the saints And that's that's our baseline. I think they had declined since then so the two teams I think are losing out right now Are the titans and the saints for both teams primarily the losses are on defense Last year the titans I was lower on them than most on defense Their personnel was not great and as a result They were awful on early downs against the pass like truly hideous if you if you question if you sequester off early down passing efficiency They were Abominable but they made up for it by stuffing the run and they were very good on lay downs That's fine because it worked out their overall defense was okay I just don't know how sustainable that is especially now when they've got some key guys leaving there So Tennessee for me currently at 7.9 wins in my model the Jags are at 10.0 Well in command of that division I'm not betting the Jags in minus 145, but I think there is a considerable gap between the Jags and the rest based on the efficiency from Trevor Lawrence last year based on Calvin Ridley being there in the fold this year So I think that the titans are at risk of Drifting close to the Colts and Texans not a tier you want to be in really. I think the Texans might be like Fine this year. They just had a shack Mason, which is nice They're slowly slowly inching up my win total model But they're not at the the titans yet, but I think that gap is Smaller than you might think between those two teams. It's still more than a win, but It's shortening for sure So it is concerning to me how many guys the titans have lost that might be by design based on Some of the moves they've made but just Noteworthy they have lost some pretty key players and a lot of them in bunches Same thing for the Saints the concerns from me also on defense for them They have lost a lot of important players in their front seven Most of them are like actual like good players to not just depth guys So we can make jokes about the salary cap being fake But if the salary cap are actually fake the Saints probably wouldn't be forced to let these guys walk I think that they are a fun team. I you know, I'm not going to clown them for what they've done It's helped them be competitive. I think they were better than perception last year too But this is the trade-off you make they're going to be worse against the rush next year They're going to be probably worse against the pass a bit too based on some of the guys they've lost So I still have the Saints as the top win total the NSC south by a pretty wide margin But the gap between them and the pack is shrinking now the caveat here is the Saints are at 10.2 wins in my model That's a very high number Aided by a very soft schedule If you were to plug in like the Saints in terms of just my power ranking and like get out a projected win total Not accounting for schedule. They would be at 8.9 wins respectable, but not otherworldly Once you put their schedule in it goes all the way up to 10.2 so The schedule is doing them a lot of favors if that schedule gets tougher aka Atlanta makes moves Carolina makes moves Tampa Bay. Maybe they had Baker Mayfield that make them tougher based on my model at least That could start to slip so I think that the Saints are Are still the best team in the NSC south. I think that they are on somewhat shaky ground though The Falcons are four to one the to win the NSC south Um It seems like they're gonna stand pat Desmond Ritter I I liked Ritter a decent amount coming out, but it's also hard to be super super high on a guy who Fell to the third round. So I like him. I think that he showed some decent signs last year But realistically it's hard to get Super super high on a guy who was a third round pick and is in his second year So the the Falcons four to one the win the NSC south I'm at least keeping tabs on that right now. They're on my radar Watching in closely. I'm not jumping there. Uh, but I think that the bigger takeaway for me is the Saints at plus 115 Not quite enough there for me to pull the trigger on them So I think the the primary thing is again keeping an eye on What the Broncos odds finished second in the in the asc west wound up settling in at Maybe eyeing some non bills options in the asc east I think that's the primary thing for me. And then also maybe Going with the alliance at plus 145 to win the nsc north I think that all those are at least on the radar as of right now As mentioned, we'll be back with you again on friday talking some, uh, nfl free agency follow Ryan williams be back with me for that show talking about his big tackles We'll talk about ryan talked to ryan about his thoughts on the bears Um Get his takeaways from free agency. Maybe with the rogers move will be final by then We'll talk about all that with ryan on friday before then though as mentioned We're gonna break down the thursday and the friday games in the nc double a tournament from betting perspective austin cast And then ben stevens vr2 guests for tomorrow to break down their thoughts on the first couple of days of the tournament To get those as they go live Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well And again, all these shows do go up on the fandal youtube page as well If you've got any questions for me. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fandal podcast network at fandal podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you But then he bets you may have for tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to talk about the first two days of the tournament This has been covering the spread right here on the fandal podcast network