 All right guys, let's take a look over here. All right, this is the Tiger 4x report by Teddy Keckstatt. This is a great newsletter. I read it every Monday before I publish it I'm not that well-versed in Forex market, but still the way that Teddy presents the information. It's succinct. It's informative. I really like it guys This is you know risk-free months subscription if you don't like it You're getting your money back and while you're here sign up for the discord as well That's one dollar one dollar a year Teddy. How you doing? I'm doing great Jacob. Good to see you good to see you too So let me know what's going on. What's happening today in the forex or in the in the broader time frame as well? I'll tell you what after last night state of the union address I think the whole market has screwed up and doesn't know what to make of it If if things go the way they were talking he was talking last night We could have a lot of reversals and a lot of markets Right now. Let's say let's take the state of the union off the table I like I like that oil right now is holding kind of firm. I think that that's gonna Bounce I think the interest rates right now. You're looking at the 30 year and tenure where they they kind of Basically butted up some nice resistance and came off it. I think they're gonna keep on leaning lower Especially with the unemployment number that we had on Friday and also you have the mainstream media now saying that Oh a recession is gonna be completely avoided. It's not gonna happen. Well, I guess according to numbers in theory We're not in one way, even though we have been for six months already If that is the case well that goes against the Fed's narrative And I think that the interest rate hiking will not only just be for the next couple of meetings But they're gonna keep on hiking all the way into the summertime if that's truly the case and that's gonna help To bolster the dollar I would think versus most of the currency pairs. Which one would you like to talk about first? Let's look at the dollar, you know, I'm interested in the dollar's relationship with gold and how that moves And we're also seeing some sideways movement right now But you know in the in the past sessions, we've gotten some interesting movements So I'd be a little bit interested to hear what your take on that on the long term Okay, well long term. I think that the dollar at least If I'm right with what the Fed is probably going to do Especially because of the recent economic numbers and the way things because remember the Fed has been talking about for six months That they want a recession. So if we're not going into a Technical by definition in recession, they're going to keep on hammering rates now They're not going to be as aggressive as they were last year But I think that you can count on a quarter point being basically set into every meeting going forward for the next Six to eight months unless we start to see an uptick in an unemployment And also we start to see some other things that point towards a true recession by economic definition So that I think in general will help to keep the dollar strong Now there's certain currency currency crosses where I think you're going to have an issue and that could be possibly especially with the yen Just because that trend has been so strong over the past year and a half And we have a rollover in the Bank of Japan's Leadership coming up in a little over a month and if once that does occur if if it turns out that our Fed Comes off the hawkishness the way the media and everyone says it's going to happen over the next couple of months Well, that would make the dollar weak versus the yen if It if the Japanese government be our B. O. J. Excuse me Becomes more hawkish than what they're right now. It's expected that also would bolster the yen versus the dollar So in that currency cross, I think you could see dollar weakness But overall I think you're going to see dollars strengthening Especially in currencies versus like the euro and the pound and the Aussie dollar especially as well Yeah, it's interesting you bring up the yen I had a writer report the Japan Times that they had intervened Twice in October to support the yen Mm-hmm. How does that kind of intervention affect these kind of you know cross rates essentially and I mean does it does it help with Confidence in trading it. I mean, what's your what's your perspective on that? Well, it gives you it does give you a sense of direction some sort of confidence Especially in at least in the short run now when you're talking about the yen now That's a big one because you know the Japanese You can kind of set your watch by what they do, you know They're very transparent and they don't just react very quickly and especially when it comes towards what they've done currently like in October and where they're leaning right now. This is a multi-decade change You know, I mean they've been keeping negative interest rates zero percent interest rates in Japan for a very very long time You know, so now when you think about that in a long-term perspective That's not very supportive for the currency But it has helped their exports for a very very long time now I think the one thing that the Japanese will be cautious with is that They will not become as aggressive for per se is like how we were in the in the US or even how the ECB is acting right now And the biggest reason is because they're export reliant Japan has certain imports They don't mean they're an island or certain things they need but overall they're a net exporter Okay, so their their currency valuation is very touchy, you know And you don't just come off of zero and negative interest rates and just try and explode your interest rates that that that makes serves No purpose whatsoever, especially because of their economic positioning, you know, so I think you're going to see Strength in the end But I would be very cautious if anyone says that they're going to be very aggressive when it comes to becoming hawkish this one It's with that currency and that's where Tommy and I have been talking about divergence in the currency markets You know for a COVID and during certain things it was not that all markets trade in tandem I've on a daily basis, but the trends were in tandem and now we're coming to a point where we have a big influx of Variables where we're breaking that tandem this so you're going to see the dollar index is going to be a hard gauge for a lot Of currencies moving forward, but I would say with the dollar yen That's what you really need to pay attention to is those those couple of issues Right on and I think the last pair. I'm curious about and again I was talking about the geopolitical situation over there would be you know the dollar euro Curious what your thought is going forward of the broader European economy itself with the kind of uncertainty that we're seeing sure And kind of what your take is on that Okay, number one the ECB will be more aggressive than our Fed However, they're out of bullets so where they did their half point raise the last meeting and they should be probably doing another half point In the next meeting. I think that they're going to have to stall because they don't have the ability To keep doing what they're doing first of all the the German economy not to mention the whole EU is suffering You got to remember that we're one year into the Ukrainian conflict and they said it was gonna last two months the sanctions that they've imposed Haven't done anything but literally Put a bomb off across the economy of the EU So I think you know just like we're Americans are saying hey, you know, we have a debt ceiling Why is the debt ceiling have to be raised? Why don't we just cut the funding to the Ukraine? Why are we participating in this war the whole EU? They're pretty much at that level, you know I mean you have the highest rate of inflation in Germany since right before What touched off a world war? Ritical regime, you know and one thing I remember Historically is that from that time period on the German economy and the German people said we will never let high unemployment or high inflation Ever ever happen in our country no matter what and it's becoming a very big issue because they're flipping the bill for the EU So that means they're out of bullets. They can't they cannot Destroy their currency and their economy anymore So they either have to lift the sanctions and if they don't lift the sanctions and this conflict continues the EU and the end The euro they're gonna suffer greatly. They're not right now. They look see it looks very strong because of central bank action They're not gonna be able to maintain it and especially if our Fed does not lay off If you know if the next meeting does not be there like that's not their last height like the news has been saying it's gonna be Guess what that's gonna hurt the euro very badly interesting perspective It definitely is in line with some of the increasing rhetoric from that area Teddy. Thank you so much for joining me. It was great See you next week. See you now