 Hey, what's up guys, this is Alex from Xtrades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list. Hope everybody had a wonderful weekend on a great trading week last week. We had some pretty good setups on the watch list last week. If you want to go back and review that, get some educational value out of it, I recommend it. We had four great short setups that worked out pretty well. If you want to go back and review that, once again, I really recommend you, you know, get some educational value out of that because there are some really nice setups there. Before we dive in here, we're going to go over the economic calendar. There's really not anything with too much crazy event risk compared to, you know, like the FOMC minutes last week. But Monday, we do have pending home sales. I would say this probably has the most chance for the market to move. That's at 10 a.m. So it'll be after the open Tuesday. There's really not anything important that's really going to move the market that much Wednesday. We do have cash card speaking. He's a Fed speaker and also ice and manufacturing that could move the market a little bit Thursday. We have initial jobless claims and Governor Fed Waller speaking as well and cash card speaking again. And that's after hours at 6 p.m. And Fed Waller is actually at 4 p.m. So this is after, you know, this is pretty much right when the bell goes off. But I would say Thursday, initial jobless claims. That's going to be your market mover, if anything. People are going to want to get that hint into the labor market and see if there's any reduction that could maybe give a hint that, you know, the Fed's policy is working. And on Friday, we have ISM services, a couple more Fed speakers. I wouldn't really say these, these ones are that important, to be honest. Maybe Michelle Bowman. So maybe you can get some relief this week, knowing that there's not too much event risk when it comes to data release. So let's go ahead and get into our setups here. We're looking at RTX. This is our first setup. We'll be looking at calls on this. And the reason for that is because we are testing this uptrend line. You got test one, test two, test three to be a third test trend line support. It's also making a reversal hammer here. You can see a nice bullish candle coming right off of that and also holding the daily 50 EMA. So ideally, you know, this can see a move back up to, you know, probably about one on one or somewhere around there. As long as the trend line is holding, this looks really good to the upside. You can see that RTX did close flat relative to the indexes that closed down over 1%. So in a way, this is almost like a relative strength play just based off the Friday close that it was able to remain flat despite market weakness. One thing you do have going against you here is the KDGA escalator. You can see it's pointing down. It's probably just from this little sell off that supply. Ideally, you do want to see this start crossing back up, you know, just to, you know, have that assurance that the momentum is starting to shift to the upside. But you are buying the dip on this and maybe getting a good price since it's right at the trend line and also at the daily 50 EMA where a lot of other people are looking to buy the dip in an uptrend, which you can see RTX is in an uptrend. So RTX looking good here for upside. You just want to make sure it does hold that trend line. Otherwise, if it goes under, you know, say it just flushes, that would be your stop out area. That's where you'd want to set your stop loss. So yeah, looking at calls on RTX. Next, we're going into Exile here. So I like this for upside once again. One reason why is because the same thing with RTX, you can see we have a relatively flat close on energy despite market weakness. I feel like that could be signaling a little bit of relative strength as well as holding that 61.8 Fibonacci support as a support three other different times. You can see a test one, a test two, a test three here as well. This is actually a fourth and fifth support test as well as testing this 200 SMA. So this is the 200 simple moving average. I switched to this one because I've noticed that the market's been reacting a little bit more to this one than the exponential moving average, which would be the EMA, which we've used in previous videos. So this simple moving average is working pretty good. It's just got a different calculation, but overall it's still, you know, just a moving average. And this would be your longer term 200 period moving average. And then your 50 is still a regular EMA. And this is just accounting for, you know, your more medium slash midterm trend. Like I said, it's holding demand here pretty good, which is also the 61.8% retracement support. Another good thing I was going for it is this gap above. So eventually I feel like this could fill up. If we go down to the shorter timeframes here, you can see it's forming multi bottoms on this hourly chart, which looks really nice. But your ideal confirmation is going to want to be over that 85, 26. So you want to see a breakout of that first, maybe before, you know, catch it upside, probably breakout back test. And then, you know, maybe try to fill up the gap. And another thing with energy, this will depend on how the crude oil futures do. So that's just one thing to keep in mind. You will want to see that strength in crude oil and just the sector as a whole. Usually XLE, it's made up mostly of Exxam and CVX. Those are the two top weighted stocks inside the ETF. So if you want to keep an eye on that individually as well, those are also stocks that will move just like the XLE. So that short term focus at 85, 26 will be your level to break. If it can't get above that, maybe just don't take the trade yet. So just use that 85, 26 as confirmation. I think that would be a good way to be patient and, you know, wait for that little small breakout in order to get back up to the gap. So you have a pretty decent set up here. You'd be buying the dip. Ideally this is kind of like a value area where it has been scooped up multiple times. You can see it's had pretty decent bounces in the past. So let's hope that I can hold up here. Maybe have a little dip on the open or something Monday. That way you can get a decent price and you're not overpaying. And if you do want to wait for that confirmation, like I said, on the 85, 26, that can maybe give you your trade up to the gap fill. So if you don't want to wait for a dip and you'd rather not buy on the dip, just wait for the 85, 26, like I said. And even if you wanted to, you could just add alert and we'll name it breakout. So yeah, that's XLE looking at calls on this. I really feel like, you know, this could be a good short eventually, but I have to lose that 200 SMA and also lose that 82, 60, 61.8 Fibonacci support. So otherwise just focus to the upside on this. And yeah, just wait for that confirmation if you'd rather play safer. Next, we're going into LUVs, the Southwest Airlines. This is purely a trend line play. Similar to Adobe last week, I feel like this can have pretty much go one or two ways. It can hold up here Monday and we'll open above the trend line. And you know, it can go higher or to be like Adobe, like you saw last week where we gap below the trend line and also gap below our key support slash resistance level, which resulted in a huge move down by the way. If you caught Adobe and you did get your put trigger like I told you to, which is by just setting an alert on the trend line that did trigger and they got killed on Friday, like down 8%. So I mean, if you did a swing trade on that one, you got paid massively on puts. So we're going into the same mindset this week. Since the trend is kind of starting to shift to the downside a little bit, I feel like there's a lot of algorithmic selling and a lot of, you know, quants and funds are starting to look for that momentum shift due to uncertainty in the markets and with the Federal Reserve. This week, we're going to be doing the same thing. Remember looking at calls or puts on this one. Your trigger is obviously going to be for puts if it goes under the trend line, same thing as Adobe is last week, but if it opens up Monday and it's holding this trend line nice and good, that does give you, you know, your confirmation that it can go higher and start to retrace back up. Another good thing about this for the bull is that this is a third trend line test. This will be test one, test two, test three. Test three is usually where the trend is going to validate. So this could be good for bulls. Upside target, probably just be this little pivot low right here from this candle, be a 34-13. And then you have another little pivot right there, 34-82. If it breaks the trend line, you got to have a flush all the way down to 32-10. So those are your levels for LUV. Like I said, just make sure Monday it's, you know, opening above the trend line. Like we're not gapping down or anything. Make sure it's holding a support. Maybe look for, you know, open session buying and something to support your thesis to the upside first before entering. And likewise or puts, you know, just wait for that trend line to break. That'd be your confirmation for downside. This one can go either way. You're pretty much just, you know, keeping an open mind to the downside, but also keeping your, you know, focus to the upside unless it gaps below that Monday. Kind of like how Adobe did last week. So we can right click, add alert to trend line. If it wants to break down, we can hit create and that will trigger. So that's LUV looking pretty good for either direction, but you will have more of an upside bias here if it does open up above the trend line Monday morning. So just look out for that. So next we're going into Microsoft. So I really like this one because there is two different ways to look at this. We have the daily timeframe here. We're breaking the short-term up trend. You can see it's test one, test two, had a test three, but failed. And also if we go down to the weekly, you can see it's starting to go back within the downtrend line. You can see a test one, test two, had a breakout now going back within. Honestly, this could be double bearish on both time frames. So going back to the daily here, obviously you can see it losing the 200 SMA on the daily. Also losing the daily 50 UMA, which it closed under Friday. Pretty bad down day, minus 2%. Obviously that's going to have a huge impact on the indexes considering Microsoft is a top way to name and both spy and QQQ. So another way if you don't want to trade the individual ticker, obviously if you want to trade the spy or QQQ, that's going to have that exposure to Microsoft as well. But I really like that this specifically is setting up this trend line break. And we'll go into spy next or in a couple minutes here. Spy is also breaking up trend line very similarly to Microsoft here. So ideal downside targets, just going to be this little demand zone here about 244, something like that. If you are bearish and you do want to see more downside, obviously you're just going to need to stay under the trend line. If it were to get back over the trend line reclaim, that's going to invalidate your thesis. So I would just say that move back down to demand would be the most conservative and ideal price target. It's not too much lower. If you got down here, honestly on the lower timeframes, after this little sell-off right here, that's going to be considered pretty oversold. Unless we had like, you know, some huge market moving event, which this week we really don't. There's really no data coming out that can move us too crazily. But I feel like that could give, you know, markets a little bit of time to make a trend, maybe it'll make more sense. And there's not going to be this random coin toss on direction. So you can see Microsoft giving back within the one week down trend line from all time highs to current, also breaking the short-term up trend line. So you do have a, you know, double trend line bearish thesis here, which looks really good. We're going to put some Microsoft and this could honestly probably play into a spire QQQ short as well, considering that this individual ticker does have a huge weighting. So just make sure it stays under the trend line and that's it. Next, we're going into Uber. So similar to Microsoft, you see that it's breaking the up trend. This is also breaking the up trend. One thing I might not like about this so much is that it's down 3%. So I had a pretty big red day Friday. So if you really wanted to be safe here, make sure it gets under 32.72 first, or right click, add alert, hit breakdown, create. So if you want to wait for that to break first, that would be pretty much like your safety play waiting for confirmation. Just make sure it goes under, break down, back test and go lower. Another thing that could happen here since it's still above the support, it could like have a fake out balance, you know, back test and then try to go lower first. A lot of times these type of patterns when they're breaking the up trend lines, they're not just going to have a straight down flush. So I don't know if you saw Intel last week, that was a straight down flush. And I did mention, you know, it can go either way, it can balance and back test, they go lower or you can just have the straight flush. If you want to make sure that there's a straight flush play on this, maybe wait for that 32.72 to get taken out first. If you wanted to wait for a bounce and get a better price, wait for that back test and look for a rejection on the up trend line. That's just two ways to look at it. Either way, it's breaking the up trend line so you do have to leave more bearish here until proven otherwise, as well as be cautious at the support level here. So you don't want to be overly bearish short-term because it does have a chance to get bounced off this huge pivot. And you can see the candle it made right here, up five, what does that say? 5.35% just on this one big candle right here from this little pivot low. So that's just something to keep in mind, you know, don't get overly bearish until it gets under that 32.72. So looking at puts on this leading to the downside but also remaining cautious at support. And that's for Uber. Next, we're going into the SPY. So this is the S&P 500. And like I said, with Microsoft, it did break the up trend as well. And I think a big reason why I broke this up trend was because of Microsoft. And I'm sure other tech looks pretty similar as well. So one good thing SPY does have going here, it's got the 200 SMA. So holding the 200 SMA had a nice base off that. You can see also this 393.56, which comes from this pivot right here. Can even add an error for you. So there's that 393.56 comes from this candle right here. You can see holding up to the penny basically, you know 393.56, this low was 393.64 from Friday. So for SPY here, just want to make sure it stays under the trend line just like Microsoft and Uber. It might come up and try to back test and reject off the area before trying to go lower, but as well, the bears will need this 393.56 and the 200 SMA to break as well. Under that, you do have a pretty much a straight flush zone back down to 387.26. There's also a little rally based rally demand zone here. And it looks like that level meets up with about 389. So if you lost that 393.56, that does take you straight down to 389. And also the demand zone low that is that 387.26, like I said. So I can't really put you much lower until it gets under that 387.26. But if it does lose that 393.50s, that will take you down to that level I was talking about. You do want to make sure it gets under the 200 SMA as well. You can see it's acted as support prior, it's acted as resistance before. You get a rejection here, rejection here, rejection here, it'll break over, act as support here before taking off and now coming back to backtester right here and also making that base. You can see a little pretty decent volume too, finally above the average. So another good thing you do have going for a bear thesis here, it is having the KDJ cross to the downside. So oscalators are pointing negative. So if you do want to wait for that 393.50s to get taken down first, wait for that level, wait for the 200 SMA to break as well. And that will give you a bear trade down to the levels talking about at demand, which is the 380 nights. If you're bullish here, you do need to reclaim the trend line obviously. So that would just invalidate everybody's thesis that the trend line broke and that will put you back on track to get back up above the 400s, et cetera. So it's really as simple as that. This trend line is gonna be huge to watch and also the 200 SMA. Everybody's watching this 200 SMA. So just make sure you watch it carefully. It looks like it's attempting to make support, but keep in mind we did close down 1%. So this could have that down Friday, down Monday scenario, where we close down week and we have that week in continuation going into Monday. But I feel like as long as we're holding this 200 SMA, I feel like the algos and retail traders and institutions are all gonna think everything's handed down to you still. So just keep that in mind. Wait for that 200 SMA to break the 300 350s as well. I will give you a bear trade down and also kind of go ahead and hand with the Microsoft trend line breaking down as well. Next, we're going into the QQQ. So QQQ is a little bit different. Right now it is at a demand zone. So that's holding the demand zone low. Also it's holding a 50 EMA and 200 SMA confluence. See a booth moving averages in the same spot here, as well as price trying to bottom out and make it a base. If you go to the shorter timeframes, you can see that algos, other traders are coming in trying to make that bottom and hold this as support. Other than that, there is that little gap from Friday. So the PCE data looked a little hot, kind of spooked people a little bit and it did gap down pretty gnarly. So the bulls do have that going for them on spot and QQQ. They have those gaps across the board. It could have a short-term attempt where we try to feel about half of it. Maybe you'll try to feel the whole thing. But otherwise, I feel like if it can't, this can go lower. One level you do want to watch is just the demands on low every single time. Also these moving averages, same thing. That 289, 89 is the demands on low. So if it loses that, loses the 50, loses the 200, that will definitely go lower. And this is all by imbalance area. So there's no demand until you get down here. About 276. So that could take you super low. You have really nothing here. You have an argument for that 280 because you do have a strong wick support here. But otherwise, under that demands on low, this could get nasty. So if you're bullish, just make sure this holds. I would say this maybe looks a little favorable for upside because it's holding that moving average confluence. You also have the demands on low support as well as a decent volume above average here. But that's mostly probably sellers because we did gap down pretty heavy. So for QQQ here, looks more neutral, super bearish under this 289s. If it can get back over this 296.88, that would be good for bulls. That is the support that pretty much broke and that's when things started to get a little ugly. So as soon as that 296.88 level, which comes from this high right here, you can see the flush down to get heavy it did sell for a couple of days, but now it's in demand trying to hold up and you can see the strong wicks pushing upward. So you do have an argument here that you have the two moving average confluences. Otherwise, I mean, it looks pretty neutral. Just wait for that demands on low to get taken out if you want to take puts, calls, just make sure, you know, maybe wait for that gap to start filling. And once the gap starts filling, you'll know that there's still a pretty decent amount of area you can fill up. So that's one way to look at it. Let's say this looks neutral to me, just wait for that demands on low to get taken out. At WM, so this is kind of similar. Still holding the demands on low, also holding the daily 50 EMA. So buyers are still trying here. It finally broke under this 189.56 which comes from this double top resistance right here. It acted as new support over here flushed under that pretty hard and you can see once it got under that there was a pretty decent sell off to the downside. But once it got into demand and you know, near the moving average, you can see why it keeps trying to hold up and you know, those traders will come in and try to buy the dip. So unless it loses its demands on low, similar to QQQ, I really can't put you much lower to be honest, cause we are still in demand. So I can't really speculate that it's not gonna bounce here but at the same time, I can't put you much lower. So hopefully that's not too confusing. Usually when you buy in demand, you're getting at a good price. So I mean, this could be favorable to the bulls to be honest, as well as you have that 50 EMA. And if this looks favorable, that could bring the indexes up a little bit. But otherwise it looks neutral, same as the others. I really like more of a individual ticker focus this week. Sticking day trades on the indexes, you know, just day trading the spot and QQQ using camera little pivots and traditional pivots get those good entries and you know, be out by the end of the day. If I do find a swing trade on the indexes like spy or QQQ or IWM, I will post, you know, I'll post about it in the discord or, you know, I'll let you know if I got on the calls or puts or something like I have before. The last one I did was on QQQ and you know, we had puts that worked out pretty good. So I'll make sure to post that in here if I see something. But right now on the indexes, I really don't see anything too favorable. There's really no pattern or anything. The spy probably looks the best cause it has that fresh uptrend line break but that's about it. Next, we're going into the VIX. Tuesday ended up opening up huge, ended up gapping up. The VIX actually closed 14% that day which was totally unexpected because it was rejecting the 50 EMA Friday like I was showing you as well as just chopping in this range. But overall, you know, we have been looking at this falling wedge breakout. So I mean, you kind of did kind of have to expect that, you know, little potential upside risk for the VIX does bring in the market lower. One thing it had to do last week is just clear this 2194. You can see as soon as it got over the 2194, I mean just crazy upside. Once it got back below 2194, you can see there's a pretty big flush day as well. But right now it's finally holding over the 50 EMA which I thought was interesting because every time I get to the 50 EMA, I showed you last week, you got a rejection, rejection, rejection, you got another rejection. And finally, you can see the little green here. That means price is finally getting over it. So I thought that was interesting. Same thing as last week pretty much. You do want to see it getting back over this 2194 as well as you do have a new peak here at 2363. And for the 2022 to 2023 average close, it did drop from 2502 to 2497. And the reason why it didn't drop about 10 or 11 cents this time is because it did close up in the 23s and also a little bit higher than it did last week. So the average drop really wasn't that bad. And it started to get closer to the mean. So I pretty much been calling for this mean regression all the way since down here. Eventually it always comes back to the mean, volatility always comes back to average and it does gas premiums up and sometimes it brings stocks lower. So this is pretty much expected, but it has been a little bit choppier than expected. I thought it'd be more of a crazy breakout and it would just have volatility picking up super fast to be honest, just because of the consolidation that has been going through for a while. But I mean, not everything straight up and down. So not surprising either. One thing the VIX does that going here. You got the KDGA crossing to the upside. So escalators are starting to point up. Momentum is shifting upward. Well, like I said, as long as it's holding over that 50 MA does like favorable here and that volatility could keep spiking. It needs to get over that 21.94 like I said and also has that new peak of 23.63. If it gets over that 23.63, you do have a good chance up to the actual average, which it hasn't tapped yet, but I think it will get up there. Once it gets up there, that's when you take a pause, see what the market does. If there's a hard rejection off the 200 and also the 2023 to 2023 average close, you could start looking at calls because volatility is at its average and maybe it could have moved back down towards the supports at the lower areas. If it starts to break over, that's a good chance to start looking at puts because once it gets over violently, it starts having these crazy pops. That means the volatility is back above average and a volatility is above average. That means more spookiness. People are going to start selling. Algorithms might have programs to start selling. So that's why you just want to wait. Honestly, once it gets up there, once it actually gets up there, I mean wait because you do want to see that rejection or break over. That's all I meant by that. And you do want to see it an extreme. You want to see an extreme, either rejection, you want to see an extreme to the upside. So you want to see if it's going to reject the average or if it's going to get above average. So that's for the VIX. Like I said, just that 21.94 and then 23.63 is in focus. Right now the psychological level is still 20. It's staying over that. So I consider this a little bit elevated on the short term for volatility. Next, we're going into DXY. So the US dollar. We've pretty much been watching this breakout for the past couple of weeks. It broke out. Finally got a big move. Also cleared that 104.66 peak. Now I got us maximum up to 105.63. So the base is out here to get higher. I can put it as high as that for now. If it gets over that, I can put it at the 200 SMA. So the 105.63 just comes from this extreme price point here. You get that hard rejection, dollar closed down 1.2%. This is a pretty big day on the dollar where it's sold off. That's why I think that's probably about as high as I can get for the short term. Before it can see some resistance, maybe once the dollar closed down that would bring stocks a little bit higher. So if it did get up there, honestly, you wouldn't want to be overly bearish if you started seeing a rejection up here. But at the same time start looking for it if it's going to break out or not. Like I said, once you get up to resistance, you're going to be either looking for that extreme, you know, for rejection or you're going to be looking for an extreme over the level. That's kind of like a waiting point, right? You don't want to get overly bearish and you don't want to get overly bullish either because you don't have your level confirmation yet. So if the dollar does start rejecting here, the bulls do have a good case. Most I can put the dollar if it starts rejecting I can put it down to that 104.66 which just comes from this peak right here on this candle. So yeah, nothing too exciting. I feel like it already got the breakout. This kind of spook stocks a little bit started kind of bringing this back to reality a little bit. Now we just wait for it to get to this resistance. Or, you know, if it dips down to 104.66, you know, maybe currency traders would try to buy the dip there and then try to spike back up. So we'll have to see just that 105.63 in focus. If it gets over that, that's 200 SMA. But overall it is breaking out and also over our COVID 2020 peak at 102.99 or just, you know, 103 flat. So that's our video for the day. I hope you guys enjoyed. Make sure to tune into the next one. If you want to go back and watch the other ones and look at some good educational value out of it, maybe look at the calendar dates, see how the setups played out. You know, if I set calls or puts, maybe see if there was upside or downside to the played out, see how, you know, probable it was. And if it did pan out and you might get some educational value into patterns or supply and demand zone, support resistance, moving averages, all the stuff that we use here. So I love you guys. Make sure to tune into the next one. Like, comment and subscribe to our Xtrade YouTube channel and I'm out.