 It's quite a successful picture of the small-scale mechanization. And now labor use. This is the historical current of the labor using in the wet season. The vertical axis measures Monday's use of rice cultivation in wet season. This is rice season. Traditional farming, when they were doing traditional farming in 1967, about 70 Mondays were used. And about half come from family labor. About half come from higher labor. Introduction of modern variety. Modern variety is very labor demanding technology. Because you have to do reading. You have to apply party writer. Because of that, Monday's increase at maximum in 1975 close to, almost close to 100 days. But after that in 80s, mechanization proceeds and also direct seeding was introduced in the wet season for one year or more. Introduction of short duration modern variety also proceeded in 80s. Therefore, Monday's for the rice cultivation has continuously declined. And now, in the latest round, Monday required for rice harvesting rice farming is about 50 to 60 days. Another thing I want to point out is the replacement of family labor. Here, look at the last bar. Only 10 to 15 days farming family use family labor. And less of the work you work is done by higher labor. Because as we will see later, family labor becomes more expensive. They are more educated. They are going out for a non-agriculture world. So, farmer is now trying to hire cheaper agricultural labor from outside. Related to the higher labor, I'd like to point out this recent teaching. A new home of hired labor has been emerging recently. That is called the proscien to have in parallel. That means a percentage. Then proscien to have labor. Oh, it's okay. Takes care of all rice farming activity from transplanting to harvesting under the instruction of a farmer. So this is a kind of permanent labor arrangement, but it's not like attached labor in the past. They come to the farmer and do a bit of work for them. I think many of you can easily understand, because in your sub-housing, you have made room with a bed, but nowadays nobody lives together in your house. They commute, right? The household. Same thing happened in the labor arrangement. They don't live together in the house. They commute and take care of it. And the proscien to have labor. They see usually 10% of gross harvest at the end of the season. So this is actually the outsourcing of farm care taking. And this is a very ideal arrangement for the aged farmer's point of view. They are already very old, so they don't want to go to the field under the sun, or get a seat on the chair, and give instruction to the proscien to have labor, do this and do that by this, and apply material and care at this point. And such and such. So this is very convenient for the aged farmer, but it is also getting more difficult to find a skillful and experienced proscien to have labor. Because proscien to have labor, also will be into the non-agriculture sector. So more or less every three to five years, the farmer has to find a replacement. That is now the headache of... Okay, changes in profitability and distribution. Here, Baccarata is measured in tesso in the real-time. And blue bar shows the gross revenue, which is calculated like the definition is bison. And orange bar shows the total cost, which is the paid-out cost plus imputed cost. Imputed cost is sort of the hypothetical cost paid to family labor, old tractor, payment to the old tractor. So the gap between gross revenue and total cost this portion in this year is appropriate. The striking fact in wet season is that profit is disappearing, has been disappearing in wet season. In 2000, profit is almost there. On the other hand, dry season, somehow they maintain profit. What are the underlying factors for this difference? First, as we have already seen, dry season... Okay, as we will see, a party market price has been going down. But here, it continues to increase in dry season. So this effect is larger than this, so revenue increases in dry season. On the other hand, it stagnates in wet season. Therefore, revenue decline in dry season. That was the reason in the previous video. Total cost, going back to this paragraph, more or less total costs are staining, both in dry season and wet season. But you should not misunderstand this feature. This is not because farmers did not change their input view. But rather, this is a result of the cost minimization effort by substituting inexpensive input for the expensive income. So farmers are seriously managing their farmer, and somehow with this effort, they maintain this level of cost. Now, the factor share. The factor share shows... Okay, out of the return, what proportion of that return goes to each individual factor? For example, in this period, this portion, maybe 15% of the revenue goes to material need, such as fertilizer, seed, and change. And this portion, maybe 20%, went to higher rate. Now, let's look at this paragraph from the top. This portion, the brown portion, is a profit obtained by the farm. And this one, share to the old land. This one, share to the old capital. This one, share to the family level. Therefore, from here to here, this small portion is the share to the farm hotel. And this orange part, this is the share to the landland. Therefore, this is the share to the landland. So from this figure, we can say that first, landland, the orange part, the share declined so quickly, and nowadays it's so small. This is one of the benefits of the land reform. Land reform puts the cap of the land. So also, owner credit data is increased by the land reform. So the payment to the land road has sharply declined. So this contributed to the equity between land road and land. Another feature is that in 2000, here this portion orange, that orange is the share to the higher labor. And some from top to this portion is the share of farm. This means, I didn't show that figures, but this portion is larger than this portion in the labor. This means that the share of higher labor is larger than share of farm. So this became the poverty alleviation. So recent change in the share change contributed to the poverty alleviation among poor agricultural labor. Similar in dry season, but as we have seen, dry season is still maintained properly. So it becomes a little bit less obvious than we're going to see. Okay, macro-laboring, but just one slide. This one, I think all of you are familiar with. And similar has happened in the central zone. Because of the green revolution of production increase, the real price of rice has declined, except this 2008 by CFOs. So the beneficiary of the green revolution is we can say the net rice volume, who are much not far on who have to buy rice, or urban people. Okay, rice farmers' characteristics. Because farm income increase, farmer increase the investment of education to their children. So initially, only few college graduates also just moderate number of high school graduates. Most of them are elementary school graduates. But nowadays, there are significant number of college graduates who are high school graduates. And there are some elementary school graduates. This level still exists, but they are actually the parent generation. So most of the young belong to this group. And once they get education, actually they lose the interest in the farming. They move out for the non-agriculture. And now they are facing the lack of accession in farming. To take into this, this is the change of the income sources over time. Rice is a blue area. It was a dominant source. So farming really means farming. Farmer really means farmer. But young went out and only the old age parent continue farming. And now only around 20% of income comes from rice farming. The major source is either lenientance or farm employment. So there, I don't know whether we can still call them farmers. Aging in rural area from 1979 to 2001. In 1979, we can find a lot of young people in the village. This is a population pyramid. And other ideas of the farm operators for this new age. But gradually young exit for the cities and moving out from the rural villages. Now the shape is not like the pyramid anymore. And this shape is actually quite close to the shape of population pyramid in the developed countries reflecting the aging of the society. So these are the picture from the fields. This is our root subject. You can see how aging proceeded in the root subject area. Most of them are very old. This old lady is almost same year as Landi, I think. But she is managing farm using approximately 100. But please do not... This is the aging of rural area, not entire Philippines. In entire Philippines, there are still a lot of young people. And because of the death of the husband or fans are working in non-agent farm sectors, female-headed farm has been gradually reduced. Now 90% of the household is female-headed. So let me summarize the transformation of the Central Houston Farming. First, traditional rice farming has been transformed into the modern farming. I mean, green revolution through variation development and continuous adoption of modern varieties that contributed to the reduction of the real-life price. At the same time, this one increased farm income together with land reform. Land reform increased farm income because tenants become landowners. Owners don't have to pay land prices anymore. So then those who get higher income use that increase for the stream of their children. Then, ironically, those who get education thanks to the farm green revolution are not interested in farming anymore. They move out to non-farm sector. And green revolution also increased the labor income of agricultural labor, as we have seen in the past, as shared figures. And most of them are landowners, so it contributed to poverty reduction, and they also increased the screwing investment. But the increase of the income is not as large as the farmer, so it's moderate. There was still significant number of agricultural labor in this week. Going back to farm management, also, because of this feature, aging and lack of labor is the program they are right now facing. Then the strategy for the future, or the strategy they are right now struggling, is the further mechanization, for example, the adoption of combined houses to reduce the labor decline. Or outsourcing of farms, relying on agricultural labor, which are still 200% available. Given this kind of change, now I have only a few more slides. This is just a visualization of what I told. Here, one example, I visited this lady last week, an old lady farmer. It's very difficult to see. The one of the lady farmers, she managed a farm. And just this year, she got this new house, but not from her farm, but this house construction is financed by Adoro in Manila who is managing the logistics farm. Another example is this one. One farmer bought combined houses. Actually, they bought, but this is not available. And they started using this machine, this machine from last season. What are the implications for the future? First, as you have seen, there is an increasing demand for further mechanization. But there are some obstacles, possible obstacles. Land reform achieved great success to increase the farmers' income. And maybe some of you know, but that land reform is still too long. It's still valid, that reason. Therefore, under such situations, farmers are reluctant to lease out their land because there is a fear of the confiscation by the land reform companies. So the land rental market is very inactive. That is the, you know, the obstacle for the consolidation of the land. So to enjoy the scale economy of the mechanization, pretty crazy is the land consolidation, but probably that is not so easy in the country. And it could be resulted in the decline in projectivity. That is exactly the sufferer. The Japanese-Americans suffer that right now. And probably Korea and Taiwan too. Philippines might follow that direction if this problem is very serious. Also, land improvement is incomplete. You know, rolling the landscape and soft soil under that condition is very difficult to operate combined harvest. So the diffusion of the combined harvest may be very location-specific. Okay, another issue is outsourcing of farming under prospective arranging. This may increase in conditions. As I already mentioned, you know, because of the supply, lack of the labor, there's been replacement of pressure approaching to hand labor. Every three or five years, they have to finally replace it. But new one may not so familiar with your plot, because they are new to the plot. And they may not know exactly very plot-specific, agro-ecological future. Actually, Hayami and Otsuka 1993 find that inefficient production by such a caretaker, such profanity, and labor. Therefore, this inefficiency could be the future problem under this. Another issue is plot in the wet season. This is an emerging concern. It's a man-made disaster. Plot spots are very itchy and seriousness varied by location. So I actually forgot to... I'm not quite sure what is the best strategy here. What is the best? Maybe they're all coming from new varieties, a biotic stress fit to this kind of, you know, condition. Or maybe agn-arranging approach is maybe more approachable. And the last one I'd like to point out is this. We need further effort to maintain low insecticide rates. So far, the Philippines used the lowest amount of insecticide than other Asian countries like high, Vietnam, and China. It's the biggest positive side of the Philippines, I suppose. But new varieties released since 1997 have much less resistant to pest and disease. Therefore, the current of insecticide rates may occur in the future. So should resistance rate be added again in the future or in the future varieties or are there alternatives of approach to avoid insects? So that could be important. We can attend the presentation. Well, this is the summary of the book. We have published recently. Then for more detail, please look at the detail. The first author is Haimoya, and myself, Landis, and Mohanty, and Teh, Gaston, and Rose. And you can download this one for free. You don't have to memorize this web solution, just Google it. And you can also download the data, load data of the root server. Additional one more advertising. Using the root server data, the simulation game program is developed. This is for the game of rice. This one is simulation as if you grow rice as a farmer. Then you can learn how farmers are struggling with many kinds of issues. And please visit this website. But acknowledgement, I like... I don't think I have enough information on the name, but I would like to at least say that above all, our deepest gratitude goes to the farmers Thank you very much. Thank you for the great presentation. Realize it, time for questions. The insecticide used in 70s and then dropping it fast. And you seem to have concluded that maybe because the varieties which were released later on, they had more insecticide resistance. Now there was another view about this that a lot of private companies are pushing insecticide use. And so there was a heavy use of, I would say, unbiased use of insecticide. So what is really causing the effect of the relationship? Is it really because the insecticide resistance has gone up? That's why farmers don't have to apply insecticide? Or is what it was not necessary in any way? And other question, K-sun, is it possible from your data the productivity increases at least in dry season? Could you separate out the effect of varieties and management? Okay. First question. Our understanding is that some major causes of this decline is here in the educational campaign and IPN. And I didn't mention the introduction of test and disease resistance variety, but probably that's also part of it. Yeah, that's a good point. And so if anybody, Hamida, is that aspect, maybe you can... I'm not... Second point, yeah, the separation is possible through by using, I think, a regression analysis and what are the underlying factors. We can do statistical analysis. I didn't find what are the underlying factors with the yield improvement. One, maybe some portion from the yield, some portion from an original process. That's possible. Maybe with the microphone? Yeah. The insecticide question is quite interesting because early on, early promoted insecticide groups and they had many cats that were fertilizers, insecticides and so forth. They hadn't read the silent spring on the racial policy. And I had plots out there that if I didn't put insecticide on the insect from the next patty would come, I put my stuff out of the station here down the clown because there was so much insecticide used. Then, gradually, the farmers started using less and less, they went to about five applications down to about two applications. Now, Yuri actually came later and many of you know K. L. Hong. K. L. Hong is a great advocate of overuse of insecticide. And K. L. Hong told me that finally, Klaus Lantbe called a meeting here at Erie to say, do something about the overuse of insecticide at the Erie station. And he said, and K. L. Hong wrote the directions. And he said that he had a terrible time arguing with some of the scientists like Dredolf Kursch and S. K. Goddard, because they were in bed with the insecticide companies. And so finally, and by this time, K. L. Hong and some of the people at the college were writing about not only the bad insect damage on the crop, but the bad insect damage to humans and to people. And now, the question of what happened in the Philippines, this statement is a hypothesis, not a complete agreement in terms of the education campaign, yes. But I can tell you that there's been brown plant-offer attacks in Thailand and Indonesia within the last year or so. So my feeling is that Erie needs to take a stronger stance working with outlets like the Philippine Pesticide and Fertilizer Association to convince the governments to ban the use of insecticide because the Chinese are dumping all kinds of cheaper insecticides as well as the private sector. That's my speech. Thank you for this educational presentation. I was wondering what are the driving factor for farmers to continue rice farming in batches and since last one decade because the data is indicating that there is almost no profit. The second thing is I was wondering whether you have considered mechanism, contribution of mechanism on imputed cost. Looks like I was wondering about whether that factor has been considered because mechanism has been picked in last one decade. First, about the wet season. Well, personally, maybe all farmer doesn't have to continue with this.