 Now, stay patient, guys. Again, I say this every single day. You don't need to trade every day. Your process is not going to be highlighted or, you know, being the sweet spot every single day. Everybody trades there. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of The Access a Trader.com. We get up, they show up. Everybody is doing well. Hope everybody's alive and kicking and healthy, enjoying beautiful spring weather. Just, again, I want to put it into perspective. I think a lot of traders, because of social media and their exposure to social media, a lot of you guys pretty much started in the last four years. I think that's a very good assumption. And the only thing you've really seen was the end of bull market Obama, the whole four years of Trump, and for the first part of so a rocky road type of Biden administration, but you've pretty much seen a really aggressive bull market. And for the last month or so, and again, if you've been watching this broadcast, I've been predominantly sell bias. And again, the market's been playing out that way pretty well. I mean, especially this week, we saw a big gap up on Monday, stuff that the 50-day moving average, stuff that again, next day in the 50-day moving average. And for the next three days, some really good sell bias actions. And again, if you've been watching this broadcast, some pretty good value on the downside. Same thing happened on Thursday and same thing happened towards the beginning and most of the part on Friday's session before this really aggressive rebound in the last hour, I logged off around 2.30, I didn't even see this. So we were literally at the lows of the day, 2 o'clock, 2.30 on the NASDAQ. And then you look up and you're getting all these text messages around like 3.30, you look at the market, look at the market imploded and you can see this monster move up. And we'll get to that in a second. But I think a lot of people, because the market has been so good and so linear and so aggressive and especially a lot of the names, speculation of names that have been going crazy and like GameStop has been kind of the poster boy of what's been going on for a very, very long time. But I think a lot of people because the market was so good, they were spoiled. And you hear a lot of times, especially in the last month or so, and say, ah, what's wrong with this market? Guys, there's nothing wrong with this market. Okay, unfortunately again, a lot of you guys, the only thing you know is a bull market. It's a linear bull market with two, three day dips and then they buy the dips and they go back. If you were trading from the end of the dot-com bubble, mid 2000, all the way to 2003, you saw a big, big area of, well, you can't buy stocks. And let me tell you why. The end of the dot-com bubble was the pop, right? That was the top. The bull market was over just because the internet bubble bursted and we went lower. Few months later came 9-11, unfortunately, right? And because of 9-11, because of the new terroristic world we kind of lived in, it was impossible to trade the markets between 2001 and 2003, especially that first year after 9-11, just because we were always on alert for another terrorist attack. So you couldn't go along the market because, again, you were fear of an attack coming and you couldn't short the market because, again, there was always an area that they were gonna find the terrorists and the market was gonna explode back higher. So there was, at some point between that two and a half year window, two year window, there was nothing you can do to trade with conviction and make money. So the idea of that three weeks won't buy, four weeks won't buy and you're not getting a bull market and you're not getting this rabid bull market that you can buy every single dip, there's nothing different about this tape. There's nothing absolutely different between an area of 2021 than there was in 2001. The market goes up and the market goes down and there are periods in your career and if you trade long enough, you're gonna see that. So that two-year window between 2001 and 2003, I couldn't make a penny, right? Not a single dime. Between 2007 and towards the end of 2009 was the mortgage crisis, right? Not exactly the most friendliest of buy the dip scenarios. You couldn't buy the dip because again, banks were going out of business, brokers were going out of business, insurance companies were going out of business, foreclosures, people were losing their homes, not exactly the greatest scenario on the long side. So there's years and years and years in your career that you will be faced with tremendous amount of adversity. This is not one of them, okay? This is just really, realistically is not one of them. The problem is most of you guys again have not seen any type of long duration of a pullback and what we saw in the last several weeks was good gravity, right? Were the buyers tired? Yeah, obviously the buyers were tired. Was there any technical damage on this move to the downside? It never was, but the value was on the downside. And I say this all the time, there's a difference between an investor and there's a difference between a trader. And a lot of times, you know, you're talking about a stock and again, I trade channels, okay? I'm not a bull, I'm not a bear. I trade Tesla long, I'll trade it short, okay? When I'm going long, I'm not thinking about gigafactories. I'm not thinking about delivery numbers. I'm not thinking about any of that stuff. When I'm going short, I'm not thinking of, well, you know, hopefully the company will be a fraud and the stock will get a hold then go to, none of this comes across, it's all channels. So the idea that investor versus trader, we've talked about this so many times, it's a completely different world. It's like a zebra having a conversation with a thoroughbred, the zebras are zebra, right? A thoroughbred's a thoroughbred. So this is a completely different conversation. So the idea that the market pulls in, you're not bearish, you're just taking advantage of the price action and that's exactly where the market has been for the last several weeks. But there is, you know, there is pockets of strength in any type of market that has been weaker, okay? Or sell bias, you've always seen very aggressive spikes. So for example, even going back to the mortgage mess in 2007 through 2009, no matter how bad the news was, the marketing goes straight down, it felt like it did, but there was always pockets of aggressive rallies. And again, I'm not gonna compare the mortgage mess to what we saw on Friday, right? You know, and Q's literally went from 311 to 316 in an hour, you know, $5 moving the Q's is tremendous. But that's what's going to happen. The difference between a bull market scenario and a bear market scenario when there's a bull market, there's tremendous opportunity, right? Everywhere, okay? Much better liquidity, spreads are tighter, more active participants, because it's feel good, right? Everybody's buying stocks. When you're trading to the downside, and by the way, before we even get back to the downside, when you're trading also in a bull market scenario or buy side bias, okay? Even if you get in on the wrong entry, okay? Because the market is so strong, because the market is so aggressive and there's such a big wave of euphoria, the market will make you right. The difference between a bull scenario and a bear scenario and kind of what we've been seeing now for the last month or so, in a bear scenario, you can't trade everything, okay? You can't trade aggressively every single day, and you really have to wait for pockets of selling. So when you see that day that goes to the upside, the majority of time why people don't make money on the upside when you're getting a bounce, because most stocks, and we've talked about this and pretty much nausea for this whole week, everything was on the supply, right? For weeks, for about two weeks now, everything's on the supply. So when a market rallies and when your stock rallies and all of a sudden, the stock rallies for like two minutes and all of a sudden goes down $6, 30 minutes later, yeah, there's a chance it's gonna hit some sort of micro supply zone and then turn around. That's what supply is. So in a sell scenario, you have to wait for macro levels, right? You can't be very, very aggressive in a macro sell cycle because you need these stocks to start confirming ranges. And when they do start confirming ranges, this is when you take your very aggressive move. So you're not trading five, 10 times to the downside on a sell signal or a day that the market's moving up. You're waiting for that one or two plays that when they're setting up macro and you do your nightly research, you're probably gonna get some pretty good value. And that's exactly what we saw pretty much the whole week. We saw a really good pull from Wednesday and to Thursday from Thursday and to Friday and Friday. It felt like the market was gonna really collapse. They really did for like 85, 90% of the day. And then when I logged off around 230, then they had that really, really big rally, but there was tremendous, tremendous value this week on the sell side. And I can note the fact that we had this really big run in the last hour and a lot of the indexes, especially in the Qs, when I was doing my chart work this weekend, and again, when you look at a lot of the charts, they're still broken, right? Tesla's still broken, Netflix is still broken, NVIDIA is still broken. A lot of these names are still broken, right? That's not where the value is. I think if the market is gonna go higher this week, there's a lot of groups that look very, very good. Look at the home builders. And I'll show you the pivots from Friday. You know, like, look at Lenar, right? And we had this really big breakout on Friday. It was a pivot here and I'll show you in a second. From 100, you confirmed 101, went to 104. The home builders look great, right? They're starting to turn around. Look at Toll Brothers for this week. It looks really, really good. The home builders look good. You're talking about metals, right? Look at CMC, big breakout, right? Look at US Steel, right? It was ready to break out again. Look at some of the software names. Look at some of the storage names, right? Like a VMW, right? Look at VMW. Look how strong this is. Look at an end tap, right? Breaking out. Look at the semi-conductors. And this is what's amazing how when the queues were a week for so many days in a row, a lot of these semis held up incredibly well. Look at AMAT exploded on Friday. You know, look at the Texas Instruments for this week. Look at a Xilinx into this week. Oops, wrong one, not the Xilinx. Maxim, Maxim. Look at a Maxim. Look at a clack, right? So there's a lot of pockets of strength that really took off with the rest of the indexes, especially on Friday. Do I think beta catches up at some point? Hard to say. It really is hard to say, but if we do continue a rally into this week and if you look at like the IWM, you know, really recovered and IWM had a really aggressive sell-off for about two weeks. You know, recovered, tried to reclaim the 50-day moving average. Again, not out of the woods, but you could see the recovery. You could see the spiders as well. Had this really pretty big aggressive sell-off. And in one day, literally in the last hour, and if you look at the 60-minute view on the spies, the spies literally went through not only the five, but they reclaimed the 10-day moving average on one candle, so that's very, very bullish. So the key question going into Monday's session was this kind of like this freakish thing that happened and we're gonna start rolling over again back Monday, or is this something real, right? And as much as I'm very, very comfortable selling ranges and that's all great, everybody loves a bull market, right? Everybody loves to buy stocks. Again, there's much more opportunities throughout the day. And of course, you could take much more size and then they're much more liquid. Are they gonna go up as fast as stocks go down? Probably not, right? And I think we all know why. But at some point, right? At some point when the directional bias changes and the setups are reflecting what we're seeing in the indexes, when then there's a sentiment shift. So I'm going to give the bulls a benefit of that on Monday, right? Maybe not the testers of the world. And again, maybe not the beyonds of the world or the apples or maybe squares of the world, but I think the semiconductors, the metals, the home builders, some financials, some insurance companies, if you do your homework this weekend, you could really find some really good value, especially the stocks I just mentioned for some potential confirmation reversals back to the upside. So I will give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. But what I really liked what we did as a group, especially in the live webinar for the last three weeks, again, we didn't full victim to, oh my God, the market is rallying. Let's just buy stocks. We saw what happened with those rallies. Those rallies lasted for three minutes. As soon as a downtick in the futures, these stocks collapsed, right? At one point, what was it? Wednesday of Thursday, I think I was watching the video, right? And the video looked like it was about to go higher. And I was like, I know it doesn't look horrible, right? And this is when you know, you have no conviction in the trade when you see the futures rallying, and you're like, well, the stock doesn't look horrible. Is that really a great side to buy stock? And two seconds later, when the futures went down like two handles, the stock sold off $5. So there was a lot of, lot of value and a lot of fear bids for 95% of the week to the downside. And, you know, listen, the bulls did a great job. They recaptured some pretty good levels on the diamonds, on the spies, the Qs are not out of the woods just yet, but little by little, maybe because some of these other subgroups will pull these things up. Maybe they'll have a bigger, you know, follow through going into this week. But again, I liked what we did this week. The shorts were really aggressive. Friday, again, Friday, there was a rally attempt in the market in the morning. There was nothing to buy and there was a reason why nothing was ready to buy because there was nothing coming, came reclaimed supply. And it took Friday's session, maybe about two hours, if you guys remember, two hours for the day to kicking. It felt like there was no, it felt like it was, the market wasn't even moving for the first two hours. And then slowly but surely you saw some really aggressive bottom ranges in Roku, in Tesla, destroyed, right? Absolutely destroyed mid-morning towards the afternoon. And then obviously we had that rally back. So let's talk about some pivots from Friday's session. And, you know, look, I like this Hig, I still like this Hig. Look at this HIG, I don't believe it triggered on Friday. If I, yeah, it didn't trigger. Guys, keep an eye on this Hig also for going into this week. If this thing can start building and obviously never confirmed, but if this thing starts building, you know, the 69, 70, 70 area, this is a gorgeous bull flag. Keep an eye on this thing for this week. This one never triggered Lenard. Again, one of the very few long pivots we had, Lenard 100 needs to build. Here was Lenard, right? Here was Lenard. So it took out the 100, it got above 101.50s and traded right to 104. If this thing starts reclaiming Friday's action, you can get more upside there, beautiful move there. And then I started putting in a bunch of downside pivots. Most of them did not trigger, but the ones that did, and you'll see in a second, they went down like a house of fire. Zoom never triggered, DDOG never triggered, CRM never triggered, Beyond never triggered, but Tesla did, right guys? Tesla did and there was a lot of aggressive pulls here on Tesla. 631 is a very aggressive area for experienced traders only. Again, not every single pivot is for everybody. There was a low of the week pivot that played out also. If you guys remember the low of the week on Tesla was 609.50. But there was a very sneaky pivot. Again, for all you guys who watched the PS60 workshop, we talked about sneaky pivots. They're not lows, they're not highs. There's a channel in between that if you could identify, you can really do well with that channel. So 631, very aggressive channel for experienced traders only if it builds below can flush. Obviously new traders stay away, not every single channel is for everybody. So here was 631 on Tesla, right? If you could sell here, here is the three channels, look at the low in these three channels, right? 632, 632, 631, right? So once Tesla took out the 631 level, this thing just got destroyed, just absolutely destroyed. And not only did it take out this level here at 631, it took out the lows from the week of 609 and went all the way down to 599. So a huge move on Tesla, congratulations for you guys who caught that Boeing obviously never got to the 251, cost never got to 26, Adaptek never got down. I still like Adaptek, if it starts collapsing, never got down to $37. Facebook, again, not a big move at all, right? Not a big move at all just because it's all supply and that's my whole point, these stocks cannot rally off supply. So here was the 282, 80 level, only went to like a dollar in change and then it got sold off again. That's my point about supply. These stocks cannot rally if they can't comply with supply and most of these stocks, especially the beta names are still on the need supply. That's where you have to kind of look at other places at the start of the week until these stocks really start reclaiming technical levels. Again, everything's getting weaker right now. Let's watch for the short periods. And again, this is where Tesla got destroyed, shop. Congratulations for you guys who caught shop, 10, 20 for builds below can flush here with shop. And look at this candle here, right? Look at this candle here. Here's the 10, 20. It took it out and went all the way down to 10,09 very, very quickly. And you can see just really aggressive dumps here on the short side. So far, super slow session. And then an hour later, right? You have Roku 307 in support if it builds below can flush. And here was Roku, right? Here was the 307, this whole area, 307 on Roku and it got murdered, right? Went down all the way down. It went down $15 on this channel and really aggressive move on Roku. Really big moves. So you can tell the ones that really confirmed on Friday got crushed. Tesla went down 30, Roku went down 15, really big moves to the downside there as well. Shop as well, take on the way down. You have a nice job on shop. Take on the way down of Roku. Man, I've been waiting for this zoom for like two weeks. It hasn't cracked. It's gone down there a couple of times. It has not cracked. I'm still waiting for zoom. Huge move on Roku, big move on Tesla, yada, yada, yada and everything else, 618 next stop. And then next thing you know, next thing you know, and again, went down all the way down to $599. So I think in this market, it is a very challenging market if you've started your career only in this really aggressive bull market. It's just the reality. There's nothing abnormal about this tape. It's just you haven't experienced the pullback yet. Is this, you know, was Friday the bottom of the market? Who knows, you know, who knows? Cues, again, you know, they still need to have a little work. Obviously they still need to reclaim 621 for me to get really bullish. Can they reclaim Friday's highs and push the 621? Of course, absolutely. So we're watching the cues. The Russell after a really aggressive, you know, two and a half weeks, sell-off woke up. Is it out of the woods yet? Absolutely not. The IWL needs to reclaim 224 in a close to kind of wake up there. But the SPYs did reclaim the 10-day moving average. It looks like once you go back to highs and the diamonds did as well, right? After, you know, two weeks of selling, it reclaimed. It actually looks just like the spies. So it looks good as well. So hopefully you guys are staying safe. Stay patient guys. Again, I say this every single day. You don't need to trade every day. Your process is not going to be highlighted or, you know, deemed a sweet spot every single day. Everybody trades different. Some people trade small caps. Some people trade futures. Some people trade options. Some people trade forex and Bitcoin. I trade beta. It's a different game. It's a very patient game. There's only six candles throughout the day. You don't have any formal because you're watching these channels. You know, the top of the channel, you know, the bottom of the channel. And if you identify the sweet spot in the middle, you can catch all that love in between. So guys, I wish you everybody the best. God bless. God loves you. Love yourself. Love your neighbor. And what hopefully I'll see you guys all on Monday. Take care guys.