 Okay, a very good morning Thursday 28th of November. Happy Black Friday That's a thing that I can say but in the briefing this morning going to talk about really two subjects from from my side the much and highly anticipated poll from you gov using their MRP model Which Boris Johnson is set to win the biggest majority in more than three decades We're gonna have a look at that pound higher this morning And then we're gonna look at the S&P 500 because indices have moved the opposite direction Quite a decent drop in US futures seen on the back of Latest developments where Trump has essentially given his backing and signed legislation Supporting Hong Kong protesters and that throwing into jeopardy then The likelihood of a phase one deal being concluded with the threat still remaining at this point of those Tariffs due to coming in two weeks time should we remain at an impasse in those negotiations? So they're two main things I'm going to talk about but before I do I did do a poll on our YouTube channel yesterday and Just wanted to clear up a few things one is if you ever or regularly watching these videos Well first of all, thank you very much for watching if you do do remember to subscribe to the channel But the other thing is and that we if you click on the description of the video We time stamp all of the different chapters of the different things We're talking about so if you ever just want to listen to what we say about Brexit or Trump or the technical analysis from Sam You can just click on that and drop down and click specifically on those areas So just to make life a bit easier for you guys Anyway, let's crack on and let's talk about first of all the charts this morning and what what are things looking like and Pretty quiet overall those two news items are really the definitive forces that are moving those respective asset classes at the moment so really the pound and US Index futures reflecting a little bit of risk off So gold up three bucks top right tea notes up three ticks bottom right and WTI crude moving to the downside at the moment Actually, in fact just touching fresh session lows as I'm speaking down 43 cents So coming in close proximity About 12 cents away from this s1 which would coincide with around the low point that we saw yesterday Following the oil inventories and the DOE when we move decidedly to the downside and the post kind of price action So a little bit risk off there But obviously the pound is one of which most people are looking at this morning if you're based in the UK Why well let's discuss that in a bit more detail. We had this big jump in price Last night because one of the major polls that came out was this If I transition my screens, this was the You remember this is one we've been talking about for a while. This is this MRP kind of methodology adopted by you gov who correctly identified the hung parliament situation of the 2017 election So a lot of people were looking with greater emphasis on this one I think the sample size that I read when I was looking at the details with a hundred thousand if you think about it the other Surveys that we've had typically averaged at around 1500 for a sample size the MRP model also Identifies different types of voters predicting their behavior Allowing you gov to work out how many of each of these voter types there are in each electoral district in order to produce a fairly detailed Forecasting for each individual unique constituency and what it came out with was this Boris Johnson is set for a 68 seat majority And that would be in fact on track for the biggest majority if that were to come true on December the 12th in three decades it put then them up 42 from their previous election and And in terms of the other performances labor then the specific numbers Tories 359 labor 211 S&P 43 Lib Dems putting in a shocker. I think that would be plus one So despite you know how popular they were you remember the polls before the election was called They were pretty much neck and neck with labor at one point And they were really trying to go after or labor was almost on the defensive if you'd like trying to hold on to a lot of There the voters that could have gone that way particularly on the issue of Brexit But so far that has severely backfired according to this data for the Lib Dems would be a massive blow for Joe Swinson who you would think Again, we could go through the conveyor belt of in the next Lib Dem leader if that was to be the end result But a couple of things I just wanted to comment first about the mechanics of how the pound reacted last night Then I'll give a bit of a view about what I think about these results So just go back to the pound chart a few thing few things here I wanted to have a look at and this was this is putting the sterling future on a one minute Now remember in terms of sterling futures, of course, the the market does shut for one hour So if you're looking at the spot obviously a little bit different and the thing though I wanted to draw attention to is this Price movement here now the pole did not come out until 10 PM and yet check this out this this candlestick here was at 954 hours at 955 6 7 8 9 into the close Now one thing that was happening if you were as I said, this was a highly anticipated pole So if you were Vigilant on Twitter This is definitely where if there is any rumor mongering going on prior to a big event It almost certainly comes from Twitter rather than traditional news wise who aren't allowed to report Unauthenticated kind of news. That's the beauty of social media in that sense and there was this guy Christian Calgy I'm not gonna say how you say his name precisely But he got retweeted. I mean, this is a guy who certainly I I don't follow I mean his his bio if you just went on that is a little bit suspect But he's connected to guide. Oh forks who anyone who follows UK politics. This is probably The most influential Political website, I mean these guys have got 300,000 followers They are basically they break all of the inside scoops when it comes to UK British politics and Guido forks Retweeted this and it came you can see here Almost an hour before the actual result came out and if you see what this chap said he said I'm hearing 211 for Labor predicted seats for the MRP you go off pole and then go back to the article What did labor get? 211 and so he then followed up There was a secondary tweet that this chap made that then got retweeted this one came out As well He was talking about the fact that Tories are heading for 50 plus and so on but right on the money now The question I want to cover here that I get is well, how tradable is this type of information and I'd say it's it's almost almost highly Untradable in that sense because if you were Looking at the market. I mean look look at the pound here. It's not moving at all But it doesn't move really if you know if there's a chap on Twitter who's I mean that Christian Has about 7,000 followers. So it's not a it's a decent amount, but not a great deal Guido forks though has over a quarter million So when that gets the retweet that's where the action happens because then it see it hits more eyeballs But if you were just gonna go blindly Just trusting what is a I guess a unqualified rumor then if you got long there, it would have looked great For a moment and then you would have been on side a decent 25 pips And then it just would have swung right back and you would have got stopped out And then it would have gone your way and then obviously the poll came out and we in the futures at least You know we gapped up to reflect some of that move But yeah, it would have been highly speculative trade and you're basically taking a bit of a punt on whether or not you want to Believe what's the rumors are saying so yeah, just interesting to see that price action You could have easily have got pulled into that. I think just going into it probably as well I mean if there's any intraday traders, probably liquidity is pretty bad. You're going into Thanksgiving People are not wanting to leave an open position on the back of that pole given it could have swung wildly in either direction And consequently the pound could have gone down as well as up to the tuner that has so that probably helped exacerbate some of that choppiness Having a look back at the chart where we are at the moment you can see bit of seesaw price action I mean we've kind of identified Sam will go over the technicals more. I'm sure about what he Views from the setup here, but you can see we gapped up came back down And it's kind of a traditional kind of technical play here with the Finding a bit of support on the initial on the futures at least where the market closed push back up back up to the original top And then we've come back down again There is at the top of this rectangle here if we start broadening broadening that price action out on the 120 You can see there's a descending trend line from mid-November encapsulating some of those Areas there that you've got the high on the 18th the 21st And that's kind of that triple top and where the markets reacted as well on the trend line It hasn't confirmed that break yet. Maybe just restricting some of the upside price action So that's yeah, again, I'll leave the rest to Sam on that fold, but Having a look at a few other things I wanted to mention This was Looking then at you gov model estimates About the Conservatives will gain a net 42 seats if an election were held today This is quite an interesting breakdown. It basically looks at the conservative margin by percentage points So here you can see Barrow and Furness Much higher looking at which is over 15 point majority So here these are ones of which I would view as you know kind of somewhat of a done deal What I'm more interested in and I thought was a very interesting statistic is that there's at least 30 seats of which the Conservatives have a less than 5% margin as what I was reading last night And so that for me spells although the headline would suggest a resounding victory for Boris Johnson There is still some of those within the kind of catchment area that could be susceptible to swings now one thing that I thought was quite telling and actually very Prudent was Dominic Cummings Dominic Cummings really has like a blog Website and he blogged yesterday, which was quite telling I thought and he said voiced his fears about Complacency now, I think that's a very strong move by Cummings because what this can lead to is A little bit of Theresa May 2.0 So what I mean by this is people hear a poll It's a resounding victory for Boris Johnson and all of a sudden Tory voters like they did with Theresa May Given a similar type of setup that the polls are indicating ahead of 2017 go Do you know what don't need to even bother Boris is going to walk it and by default then you're you've got and a Potential calamity on your hands as we saw in 2017 whereby Again literally complacency has led to that so Dominic Cummings rightly so as the conservative strategist has come out to try and Mitigate that head-on He basically said that a hung parliament remains a quote a real possibility So a lot of this I think it's just again tactical to cajole sentiment in order to keep These conservative voters engaged because every vote is going to matter in order to really see this come home Into what was reflective in the MRP poll now one thing with this MRP poll that I would like to add is that there was another poll that came out last night so even though of course the attention is on the MRP poll given its its Methodology, but the other poll was for comrades for the Daily Telegraph and that suggested Labour is narrowing the gap on the Conservatives with the Tories on 41% down one point from the weekend and Labour up two points at 34% at the expense of the Lib Dems who down on 13 So one thing to be clear here the size scope and complexity of the MRP poll is Backward-looking I've heard it's a couple of mixed reports between one to two weeks Whereas the groundwork the fieldwork done with the more recent polls is obviously capturing much closer sentiment so what I'm saying yesterday the MRP is Inflexible in its ability to capture any late swings or changes in sentiment and this Comres poll for the Daily Telegraph Fits the exact same narrative of what we've seen from all of the polls that have come out since the beginning of the week So what I'm saying is is that the MRP polls captured a moment in time which at that moment in time the Conservatives were Ramping ahead or romping ahead in every single poll that has changed So what I'd be more interested in is if MRP poll from you go if they rerun another one between now and Then two weeks time right before the election that would be way more interesting at that point I could I'd say you could be much more Strongly of belief that that would be the end outcome because two weeks obviously is an incredibly long time in politics and so Yeah, my initial view here if I'm talking purely on fundamentals kind of disregarding a little bit Some of the price action is sure short-term speculators have bumped the price higher But I think the market will be a little bit less assured to just power home The pound and get long on the fact that this is now a done deal and I still believe as I said yesterday that polls coming further forward will as the Comrades one has shown overnight continue to show this narrowing storyline and that I think is going to have to See the pound fade Going forward over the next two weeks. I still still maintain that view irrespective of the pop that we've had overnight Okay Final part on the Brexit side or two parts. One is this Following the result of that that poll last night BBC News are reporting that Labour is going to change its strategy with two weeks to go. So basically Insiders say in the first half of the election campaign a key error was that the Liberal Democrat threat has been Overestimated while the willingness of leave voters to switch from Labour to Conservatives was underestimated. So if you remember Can the Lib Dems was seen as an absolutely credible threat But as soon as the election has been called Liberal Democrat support has just tanked in the polls and Rather than focus head on the issue of Brexit, which has obviously been the objective of Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn's kind of been emphasizing different areas particularly on the NHS For example, but now given what we've seen from this poll where it's looking like Conservatives have been able to really target some of those Labour leave areas the Tactical switch now from Labour apparently for the next two weeks is going to be right Let's just let's just try to battle then these key areas on the issue of Brexit because it looks like Lib Dems are no longer a credible threat in terms of the referendum issue on the Brexit side about the remain and so on There are some more TV debates happening You do have tonight The one tonight's probably a little less impactful overall. It's the emergency on planet Earth the debate Then the more important one I'd say you've got the BBC election debate Which is happening tomorrow night so Friday night at 7 p.m. And then there's a few more to come before the actual day of voting So so five more in total as you can see there on that screenshot The other thing to mention on The macro side is we've had a dip in Global stock indices overnight in the Asia Pacific session That came after as you can see on your futures chart late yesterday Kind of commencement of the Asia session. US futures got hit. So let me just show you what that looks like Here's the S&P 500 future. You can see a Drop right on 11 o'clock as the markets Reopened we see we close from 10 to 11 in the futures as soon as it reopened We pulled back all of the gains that we're seeing in yesterday afternoons session So pull back off those all-time highs now. Why did that happen? Well, this is that that storyline That's being ongoing for a while some were perhaps a little bit Still open to the possibility that perhaps Trump didn't want to jeopardize the ongoing trade negotiations So despite the kind of bipartisan agreement in Congress to push forward pretty much unanimously support for the Pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong Donald Trump did in fact come through and sign that legislation in support And what's happened overnight the US ambassador? I think in in Hong Kong has been called to speak to Chinese officials Chinese officials have come out and threaten retaliation All of this of course is coming Just as they're about to sign a phase one trade deal So this new law passed expressing support US support for these Hong Kong protesters Does this put a bit of a spanner in the works for conclusion of these of this deal? Which obviously has been a key component of helping equities push up to these record high levels One thing I would say with the S&P, you know, let's not take it too far out of context Yes, we dipped a decent 10 points overnight, but I mean just look at how where we are in the longer term picture I mean here I think that technical chart on the dailies is quite telling because we are right bang on that trend line As you can see going back from what the major lie test the early November or mid-November test And then we're right back on the pullback to that level there at the moment So it's a pretty strong area of support that you've got there on a dailies around 41 And that would coincide with some of that price action that you can see here when you start Kind of zooming it down onto a more short time frame So yeah, again, it's kind of one of those where these push hires consolidation push higher consolidation I think that's still very much a Prudent kind of approach to these pullbacks. I still don't see what's happened as an overall Signal that we're in for a sharp correction in markets I think that move all in all is relatively small perhaps a bit reflective of the fact that a lot of American participants Of course out the market celebrating Thanksgiving So even if we did come back the point being I still think that The market is still in a phase of consolidation if anything, but a pretty solid support level there to keep an eye on Calendar for today. What have we got? so very much a morning-centric day And I would say a lot of the move perhaps has already happened So if you were in the market early then sure perhaps the best trades have already been done Roof my kind of digestion and reaction to the two events that I've said that have unfolded late last night Otherwise for this morning a couple of things you have had the first of the German state CPI's Saxony's come in minus 0.8 percent previously was plus point one The year-on-year that one point one against previous one percent So the other German state CPI's we coming out littered through the morning. I've had a headline out of North Korea While we've been delivering this briefing launched an unidentified projectile according to the Japanese Coast Guard It appears to be a missile according to Yonhap. I mean that sounds like pretty sensational But it did likely fall outside of Japan's exclusive economic zone So again, it's very interesting that as soon as Trump signs these deals as soon as the A trade war becomes looks a little less likely it's going to get done North Korea start firing missiles again So again for me it totally is in fitting with the North Korea Pickup in activity is directly correlated with putting a bit of pressure and leverage on this later situation on this this legislation Otherwise that's pretty much it you've got some 10 o'clock data which on your calendar looks pretty Important it's the kind of European suite of sentiment readings, but they very rarely have ever moved the market. So Perhaps just keeping half an eye on the German state CPI's would be prudent But otherwise there's nothing coming out in the afternoon, of course because of the holiday in the US The early closures so electronic trade is going to close early. So if you are trading equity Interest rate FX energy metal futures on globe X on the CME. They're going to close at six o'clock London time instead of the regular Regular 10 p.m. Close if you're in London CME pit nicey floor both closed today Speaker wise the early one really took out for a couple of ECB speakers later coer and ECB's lane late in the evening Okay, that is it from me. I Hope that was useful as I said remember just today and going forward in future We timestamp on YouTube all of the topics that we cover. So hopefully that makes life a bit easier for you guys watching in future All right. Thanks. Catch you later Hi guys. Good morning. Happy Thanksgiving To those out in the states of a quick look over the euro to begin with Before we talk about stocks and that RSI divergence, which is obviously the reason we've come lower Sam, I look at the euro and I was just iron up on my own charts I quite like the look of any sort of retracement a bit higher up today but given the The volume likely to be a bit lower whether we could get up towards the R1 area or not I'm not too sure but that is a as a general point. I do like the look of you've got maybe a tiny bit higher as well on Here looking 30 minutes one ten thirty-three. I've got the high from yesterday around 3 a.m. In that breakdown area I would like there. I would like it to come there for for a place to get short It's whether we can get up that Anytime soon. I think if today is going to be a case of waiting On your hands anyway and having a look at those lows You can see we've got a relatively well respected trend line which could potentially break later on and lead to a Move lower down. I think that's always something to to keep a watch on But yeah, if we can get up towards that point that'll be of interest just having a look before we were to get there You'd have to get through one ten twenty six, which was a good opportunity It has to be said yesterday You see we broke through and then came back to test it a couple of times Around seven and three o'clock course always looks easier in hindsight Having a look at this as a potential place to get short and then on the 240 just having a look here You can see obviously the significance of that failure to maybe close above Close below. I should say that that low that we had from the 14th. Just how significant will that be? Well, I've had the balls given it a go here and into the end of the week volume lower I'll be actually about to see a bit of a push on so where we close the week as we said Yes, so for the euro the pound and the Aussie on these or what were these lows will be obviously quite important A break of that one ten and then you are looking down to those October lows from the eight from the first Respectively for the euro for the pound, of course this time yesterday We were right on that low and it came down with the s1 Literally kind of when we were doing the briefing only to reverse and what will be will be for the rest of that day Or what will be what was I should say, but yeah this trend line holding things up You obviously got quite a bit of noise above if we were to break through the R1 and then each of those highs and of course that really Significant 130 which of course if we were to break that that point would be an area It could be attracted to I would say to the downside, you know looking for a better opportunity Better value to buy the pound today would be perhaps wise to go about it. Where could that be? Well 129 23 bit of resistance You can see was also on the 25th give or take a couple of ticks and obviously that initial high from yesterday before that spiked through Would also be you know that low the day so a bit of profit taking come in that could be a nice area to get in and Also the pivot if it was to come down even further, but by then, you know, that'd be a full retracement and more You'd have to start asking what's really going on if that's the case 129 23 a key line in the sand that you'd think the balls would want to protect the trend line to the top is definitely worth keeping an eye on As you can see that's already Circle and marked out having a quick look over at the Aussie We are as we put this onto a 240 you can see we have now closed well We're looking like we're going to close below that low the 14th and yesterday So how significant will this be the Aussie under some pressure? I would say we can now start to well, we've almost made through what would have been I suppose that first target the 16th 7am higher But then looking for that low which is down 67 36. So the Aussie has been drifted in lower We'll be keeping an eye on that. Obviously the negative trade comment overnight is not going to help And the fact that the S&P has been pushing higher and higher and higher of positive trade comments And the Aussie has done nothing Is a bit of a worry so any retracement back to that point today? I think it's definitely worth a go Unless trade comments were to suddenly turn around and get positive on Thanksgiving Maybe not the biggest surprise in the world if that was to happen pivot another key level and also that top of that range R1 so those would be the free key points to the upside that I would really be looking at for now trend line Seem a bit steep So yeah, that would be the focus. I'm gonna look over gold Hardly move really did it overnight. Let's be honest is it's not a massive move And actually to be honest the fact that we didn't quite get up to to test that Previous low of yesterday morning is quite key. I suppose we did really but 1464 point eight That's gonna be the key level to the upside before maybe getting towards that R1 and actually looking at the way Gold traded yesterday, albeit. Yes, you may have got Taken into a sort of a false break of that previous low actually reacted quite well and there's a couple of good opportunities So those previous areas of support and resistance or currently resistance would be where I'd be keeping an iron 14 64 point eight and 67 then to the downside Much like with the Euro and any of these markets that have just you know Been on a downtrend and starting perhaps to turn around over the last couple of days getting those trend lines on for Potentially bigger move and continuation might be The favorite choice, but right now You know with stocks coming down in the early morning You could be forgiven for maybe wanting a go at getting long above that 1464 point eight But overall this is still think about this recent trend in gold has been coming under pressure I'm gonna look over at oil DOE's. Yes, they Usual usual noise and we're still back into that That new range that we're on about we were talking about this yesterday How we were stuck in one for a couple of weeks looked like we finally broke out only to then get back involved In this area as well. Can we get out of it? I guess the the close of the week will be key But really is there gonna be that much volume heading in and just to reiterate up towards those highs today On the R1 is yesterday's high and it's top of that range and the low We almost getting down to the s1 But it was also to pretty much bang on the low the 22nd Those will be the key points if we lower it down to 15 minutes just above the pivot level is Gonna be an area of note the closing high yesterday also a bit of support yesterday 58 22 Would I be interested in anywhere other than that as it stands not really not unless Things started to pick up and not really expecting that to happen There you go. S&P come down. We broke through 31 50 on the one third time of asking Pushed higher made a new all-time high across the board only to come down very late on and I guess an opportunity if you're You know favoring this market to continue you'd be looking at 31 46 50 You see the amount of time to be have tested that I think you'd be quite brave to want to go short again There's a break of that to maybe target really towards 31 50 Could be a good opportunity to get four or so points looking at the the key low Let's call it the higher the 26th before the push through then the lows of yesterday You can just see how important a zone that is I think we could stay in that zone for for a while this morning just considering the overall volume as well would I Favour the long from around there again Maybe you'd want to see a bit of a five-minute close Above that area before getting in but certainly the range trade could be a better option looking to continue the overall trend Of this market. So those would be the key levels looking. Let's call it the bottom there 31 40 and then to the top 31 46 and a half as well any questions as usual, please do let us know worth noting the The low of yesterday for the Dax has provided some support And obviously we did get below her so anyone that trades the Dax obviously keeper and I on that as we know If we were to get maybe above the the higher of today You can see a further push higher the S&P then obviously breaks that that high as well So once a to keep an eye on the Dax's finally support on what's been a pretty key level the overall Lower part of that range still a fair bit below as well Hope you will have a good trading date and I'll catch you all in the chat