 Welcome to a Friday night edition of Tiskey Sour. We are talking about COVID, Kuhnsberg, Cummings and the Queen. I'm joined as ever by Aaron Bustani. How are you doing, Aaron? I'm very well, Michael. Very happy to be joining you this Friday evening. Always a pleasure. Again, I'm slightly coldy. I've got a slightly more nasal voice than usual. Everyone's talking about this terrible cold that's going round that's not COVID. Believe the rumors, I tell you. Before we go on, do subscribe to the channel if you haven't already and tweet your comments and questions on the hashtag Tiskey Sour or in the comments box below. First story, COVID cases and hospitalizations are still uncomfortably high in England and rising. Yet the government in England at least is adamant that no new restrictions are needed. Devi Shridhar is a professor in global health and she has warned this could lead to a need for tougher measures down the line. Yeah, we are in quite a fragile position in the UK and what we need to be doing is looking at other countries at similar positions to ours and learning how are they controlling COVID. If we do not control COVID now, we will face a winter lockdown. So now is the time to move to plan B, to get face masks in place, to ask people to work from home, to get vaccine certifications, to get that uptake higher and really keep as we've seen from the statistics just shown, try to get people vaccinated and protected for themselves. That was Devi Shridhar who's been incredibly insightful throughout this pandemic saying if we do not control COVID now, we will face a winter lockdown. I'm skeptical of a winter lockdown personally. I don't think it will happen. Not to the extent of anything like we saw last January, but I can imagine a situation where more restrictions are needed than is currently in plan B, for example nightclubs or social venues. That's why I agree we should implement plan B now to avoid something worse later. If you don't remember plan B is having masks, having vaccine passports and telling people to work from home. Sage scientists have been clear that it's that latter one that could make the most difference but the government very keen to get people back into their offices because of their landlord mates mainly. These are all or they would all be low cost steps but the government is refusing to roll them out and they are instead putting all their eggs in the vaccine basket. On that front there was some good news yesterday. The results of a phase three trial into booster shots of the Pfizer vaccine found it to be 95.6 percent effective when compared to people who are only double vaccinated. The FT report in a trial with 10,000 participants who had all completed a two shot Pfizer regimen, half were randomized to receive a further equal strength dose of the shot and half a placebo. Five cases of COVID were registered in patients receiving the booster compared with 109 who were given a placebo. Now that is a really, really extraordinary result. The original studies into the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines found them to have around 95 percent effectiveness but that was in comparison to being unvaccinated, to having no immunity at all. These, this booster shot, this third dose is 95 percent effective compared to being double vaccinated. You're 95 percent more effective, more protected than already being protected. This could be incredible. It's a lot of protection and it means the booster campaign will definitely help us through the winter. There are however still important unknowns in particular as to how long this added protection will last. If the protection from a third dose is long lasting we could be in a situation where a free dose regimen at the mRNA vaccines instead of the two dose one we have now if rolled out to a large proportion of the population could virtually eliminate COVID-19 at least in those countries with high vaccination rates. However if the third dose wanes just like the second dose these results would prove less consequential. Amesh Aldarja is a senior scholar at the John Hopkins Center for Health Security. She posed the following questions to the FT. Will a third dose just push breakthroughs off to a later date? Is a second generation vaccine that creates more nasal immunity the actual solution to the breakthrough issues? The virus is always going to be here and I'm not sure chasing mild breakthroughs with intermittent boosters of first generation vaccines is that valuable. So if this wanes just like the second dose will be in a similar situation in six months time to that which we are in now. Regardless of how long any booster immunity lasts even that short-term increase a six month increase in immunity would be good news this winter for those countries that can afford the third dose. For those countries still at the back of the queue however booster campaigns in the rich world could spell disaster. This is Dr. Maria van Kehove who leads for COVID-19 at the World Health Organization. Here she is speaking to the BBC. If we are boosting some in some countries and and not allowing the vaccine to reach those who needed most their first and second dose is prolonging the pandemic. This pandemic will last as long as we allow it to and you know we're thinking into 2022 at least till the end of 2022 and then we have to see what happens as the pandemic evolves. We're still very much in the middle of this. I know people are ready to be over with it but we can't will it to be over. We can actually have to take the measures and it's vaccination and it's vaccination and these additional measures. But just to be really clear and I know you're short of time but to be really really clear the decisions of politicians like Boris Johnson and others in countries to continue to up the vaccine uptake in their domestic politicians populations that's going to make this thing last longer for everyone everywhere. It will unfortunately. So the the effectiveness of these boosters very much double edged it suggests that those of us in rich countries are going to have a much better winter than we otherwise would have done but the more effective the third jab the further back in the queue those in poorer countries. Yeah remember many countries in Africa or I think on average Africa has about two percent of the population vaccinated so really appalling inequality on this front. Aaron what's your take on these results about boosters as I say this is long lasting this could be completely transformational if we get 95% protection in the long term against COVID-19 or it could just be a short term measure that gets us through another six months before we even need another booster jab or we need to accept that we're all going to get a breakthrough infection. I think I think buying another six months at this point would be would be pretty impressive Michael because you have to obviously consider the development of the initial vaccine happened in less time than that and the people behind the the BioNTech Moderna vaccine have said that they could create far more precise drugs to deal with the different variants and so on rather quickly between six and eight weeks and I think they're probably being developed as we speak so I think the idea that oh well it would only buy you six months or a year I don't necessarily accept that as an argument what's clearly correct however and at odds with the government now proceeding to give us all a third dose is that that takes away doses from the third world the global south now I would say something in response to that which perhaps is a bit controversial with our audience which is it is more sensible to give somebody over the age of 65 three doses than somebody under the age of 18 one dose and so we talk about vaccine apartheid which is absolutely true and how poorer countries in the global south particularly sub-Saharan Africa particularly South Asia aren't getting access to this stuff and that's obviously deeply unjust but at the same time older populations think Japan, it's East Asia, Europe, bits of North America that they would need this far more so an equitable distribution of the vaccine would also look at aging demographics so a country like Japan or Italy is in far more trouble with this than say Nigeria take away the absence of healthcare infrastructure in the latter compared to the former and then finally the point about using a third dose of a very early vaccine which is what we are dealing with right now we've all gotten our bodies most of us I had the AstraZeneca one clearly we're using what will prove to be the most primitive vaccines in the long run at the same time he's saying well there's no real precedent to give people a third dose with such a primitive vaccine true but we've also never created a vaccine for a new pathogen in less than a year and rolled it out in a global scale in under 18 months so you know the idea that you talk about precedent and what you've done in the past when trying to sort of make sense of how we're responding to COVID I don't necessarily buy and look at the end of the day particularly in democracies in Britain or in the US or in France or in Italy the head of state the political class is always going to look out for their people rather than the global interest because they're seeking re-election and we've seen what happens if you don't get on top of this the economy closes down mass demobilization creates potential political stability problems and so on Trump was not re-elected because of COVID the likes of Macron and Johnson they don't want to do that so yes of course they should coordinate but they're not going to within reason there'll be a little bit of coordination but nowhere near enough and I suppose that's why I mean the WHO the clip we showed you was from the the COVID lead for the WHO I hear them quite a lot speak about how you know we need to ramp up the donations from rich countries to poor countries and I absolutely agree we do we've pledged way more vaccines than we've actually given we really haven't sort of matched the rhetoric there but I hear them less often sort of hammer home this point about we need to create the infrastructure to generate vaccines in poorer countries I would I would like to hear a bit more of that and about loosening the patents which countries such as South Africa and India are desperate to do moving on from vaccines and the non-pharmacological interventions or non-pharmaceutical interventions sorry we are getting mixed messages from the Tory party when it comes to masks and in particular when when and where we should wear them on Wednesday after the experts had encouraged the public to wear masks in crowded spaces the FT Sebastian Payne made a pretty decent point at a Downing Street press conference Mr Javid is there a difference here between what you're telling people to do and the behavior of some senior public figures for example first Paris just said we should be in a situation of wearing masks in tight indoor spaces ensure there is ventilation and in the House of Commons today the benches were completely packed nobody on the Conservatives side was wearing a mask and one of your minister your colleagues said that he was planning a Christmas party which seems to go against the kind of advice we're being given so isn't there a slight difference between you're telling the public to do one thing and acting differently I think I think said that is a very fair point and think that we as I say we've all got our role to play in this and and we the people standing up on the stage we play our sort of let's say our public roles and you know as a Secretary of State as someone of the NHS has had a head of AXA we've got big roles played but we also have a role to play and set an example as as as private individuals as well I think that's a very fair point and I'm sure a lot of people would have heard you thank you all very much thank you there's a decent question there and it sounded like Sajid Javed implying there would be a shift from the Tories and that they might start to wear masks would we see a shift as we go into winter it seems not the following day this was how cabinet member Jacob Rees Mogg answered a question from the SMP about the lack of masks worn by the Tories in the Commons as regards mask wearing I really responded to the shadow leader I would say there's no advice to wear face masks in workplaces and the advice on crowded spaces is with crowded spaces with people that you don't know we on this side know each other now it may be that the Honourable Gentleman doesn't like mixing with his own side he may want to keep himself in his personal bubble he may find the other members of the SMP who I normally find extraordinarily charming but he may not take this Catholic view of his other Honourable and Right Honourable members and I sympathise if that is the case but we on this side have a more convivial fraternal spirit and therefore are following the guidance of Her Majesty's Government that was Jacob Rees Mogg making out that wearing a mask isn't a polite gesture to those around you it's actually a sign that you're anti-social you're not someone who likes to have a convivial relationship with those around you Aaron public health messaging doesn't really get worse than that does it yeah I mean Michael thank god we don't have a pathogen here which is like Ebola can you imagine 50 fatality rate can you imagine Jacob Rees Mogg going around giving a high five shaking hands drinking out of your glass you know presumably he spits in his friends mouth look if proximity of social interaction is a key marker of your friendliness and openness to strangers come on you know we don't hug and kiss generally in English culture and British culture you shake people's hands we're going to start hugging and kissing each other come on this is ridiculous Michael and we're very fortunate like I say look we have done a ton of content over the last 12 months about how this is going to be the first big or that she is the third coronavirus this century but there are going to be so many more pathogens over the course of the 21st century because of biodiversity breakdown because of climate change they're not spillover you know the fact that we've got the global south just munching up resources as they deserve to because they want a standard of living like the global north that's going to have huge spillover effects in terms of new pathogens that affect humans they could be much more deadly than these coronaviruses have been so far I said you know Ebola is one HIV AIDS is another probably entered the sort of the human world in the 60s after somebody bushmeat probably simian bushmeat look that sort of thing is going to keep on happening and so we need a more sensible political conversation than oh wearing a mask means that you're you know impolite it's just so utterly irredeemably stupid you know we are we are looking at exceptionally exceptionally you know literate publics now when it comes to science yes there are some people who deny the science but actually you know the vast majority of people are quite informed about these things and we just have such an inept stupid thing being said by one of the most powerful people in the government of the world's fifth largest economy you know it's really important to say this mark or 10 15 years ago somebody like jacob brie smoke with the things he says his default position on things like this somebody like him he I know he was in the conservative party but with this public prominence he would have been a UKIP MEP and he would have been a pariah and a laughing stock and what we're seeing now really post post 2016 is people like him moving to the center of public life when it comes to the political conversation and look brexit's one thing trades one thing we're dealing with a virus Michael it's life and death and so this nonchalant idiocy can't carry on right and I don't think actually I don't think anybody will buy it we'll talk about this perhaps I don't think we will have another lockdown for political reasons but if we did I think there will come a point when people just say enough is enough we can't have this anymore that doesn't mean they turn to the left but I think I think like I say this nonchalance is just it's too much now it is too much Michael if we go through something like we had at the beginning of this year with three months lockdown oh my god oh my god that would that I think I would cultivate a genuine mind shift which doesn't reverse against people like jacob brie smoke let's hit let's take this question directly on because I don't think we will have anything like a lockdown actually I think easily it could be the case that cases plateau if those boosters get rolled out that should have I think actually quite a big impact on on things such as hospitalizations kids who have been really driving the the epidemic over the past couple of months they're going to start having immunity from natural infection and also from vaccines you will get some waning I don't think you know I don't think they're going to have a great winter but I feel like probably infections are going to sort of continue at this pace of being uncomfortably high without you know ever ever getting above 100 000 for example maybe they will I really don't want to be held on that but I don't think we're going to see a situation where it seems so extreme that we have to tell people to stop socializing to stop seeing each other what I do think is is more up for debate is should we not be taking the simple measures that make the lives of people working in the NHS less hellish and that mean that we don't have more unnecessary infection and more unnecessary deaths than we need to I don't really think at the moment the debate is between you know absolute catastrophe and lockdown or something reasonable I think it's between something which is you know pretty bad which is more people dying than need to die more people getting long-term illness than need to get long-term illness or something which is quite a bit better but which you know isn't isn't that costly at all have some masks yes let's ramp up this booster campaign let's tell people to take lateral flow tests all the time the government have stopped telling people to do that so it to me seems like we could have simple measures to save some lives to make the NHS less hell like I don't think a lockdown is at all on the table Aaron you do think that you still think we might get to a situation where you know there's just no choice and it's looking so terrible that the government are going to have to do a massive U-turn and say sorry we fucked it again lads lockdown yes I don't think I don't think a lockdown will happen like you say Michael for political reasons I think you know if you're looking at 200 cash I don't think there should be a lockdown at 200 casualties a day unless it's going to make a difference in the long term and lockdowns are short-term solutions I prefer a long-term solution but I think Michael clearly there are many countries if you had 200 fatalities a day that there would be a lockdown there won't be because of the politics around it right there simply won't be you can't be soho council Westminster council get rid of all the outdoor dining in soho you can't be the government you know making huge sweeping changes reversing the universal credit changes and that's actually we're going to have another lockdown it it would fly in the face of everything the government has done not just on vaccine roll out on everything it's done for the last year however you know today we're hearing about a delta plus variant so it's Michael it's not it's not impossible you know and I think it's fair to say that you know we're looking now at a really high case numbers the weather two weeks ago Michael or a week ago even was really good two weeks ago was incredibly clement if you go fast forward now to let's say Christmas people crisscrossing the country visiting relatives seeing one another celebrating I hope we deserve it we will deserve it you know what will the case numbers be in January and I do think that's a serious question now again I don't think there should be a lockdown necessarily but I think I think it's highly plausible Michael even in the absence of a new variant which is worse than the delta variant and that seems to have already happened with delta plus but the jury's out I think it's highly plausible that we stretch the NHS in January just like we did at the height of the crisis a year ago I think it's highly highly plausible yeah we won't have a lockdown but you know you you would be looking at several at least several hundred deaths a day far high case numbers and at the moment that is a crisis that is a crisis that's not normal well I mean we already are having a crisis of some sorts right I mean we should we should really press home this point that people working in the NHS right now or people who need emergency care in the NHS is really bad situation which is which is why the the government position which is oh no actually the pressures are completely sustainable we don't need to take extra measures I think is is a bit offensive really but I'll just make one point quickly so no need to apologize Michael um this is why you know I always thought it makes perfect sense to have people say how you support vaccine passports I think for things like nightclubs you clearly it makes sense to have proof of a recent test right if you're going to open nightclubs you're going to open you know bars hubs where people are standing up generally speaking on mass I think I think you probably do need to show evidence of a recent test yes I think well-ventilated schools yes masks and public transport yes these are all small additive things and when you talk about them people say oh you're an authoritarian you don't believe in liberty look I just don't want that lockdown next January February Michael I will do anything to avoid that anything well with within reason and actually these are quite small modifications on our behavior very small so you know I mean we're of a mind on this Michael but what I would say is look it's only like I say we're in mid-october Michael and we had a very very clamant warm September I think it's very possible we see major problems next January February major problems we see the vaccine wearing out we see people you know meeting and greeting each other indoors far more frequently you know people are going to really want to get their celebrations in over the Christmas and New Year period because they didn't do it last year it could be a problem you know I think that's all that's all persuasive maybe it could be oh god no I mean there is definitely going to be a problem anyway I'm not here saying don't worry about it I'm just I don't think we're going to have a situation like we did earlier in the year let's move on to a non-covid story in fact three non-covid stories if you're enjoying the show do like the video Laura Koonsburg is set to stand down as political editor of the BBC it's a role she has held for six years the Guardian report she is likely to move on to become a host of Radio 4's today program the paper write that BBC political editors are often moved to senior presenting jobs well ahead of general elections enabling their successor to get used to the position before a vote is held as part of the reshuffle a leading of leading BBC journalist John Sopel is stepping down as North America editor and returning to the UK Sopel's return means he is now a candidate to be the new BBC political editor having been connected to the job back in 2015 according to Politico Vicki Young, Amal Raj and Beth Rigby and Chris Mason are also among the runners and riders for the BBC's top political job Aaron Laura Koonsburg has been a key player in setting the political agenda over the past six years how significant could this departure be I mean I think she's the worst journalist the BBC and I know that there are some people like I read Alex Wickham's newsletter and Politico this morning and he said oh you know pedestrian whining about how bad she is she's driven the big political scoops the BBC over the last decade I mean look it's one you can have that position I just don't I just don't and maybe my problem with her output is that as the BBC's political editor she's obsessed with Westminster and she very rarely looks or talks about the country at large and the whole conception of politics with the BBC politics editor I think is quite limited so is that a criticism of the role or Laura Koonsburg you make your mind up I think also she's really let her down professionally time after time now again somebody can disagree with that what I would like to see with somebody in the role is a big shift in where their focus is a big shift in actually how they try and talk about stories it's not gossip it's not you know a conjecture or speculation at Westminster it's actually trying to sort of craft a narrative about the big picture which is interesting and appealing to a wider audience Lewis Goodall at Newsnight is very good at doing that he's probably the best BBC politics journalist at doing that he won't get this job in my opinion or I think he probably should get the job I think he's the best qualified person for it at the BBC presently because if he did I suspect the Tories would cut the license fee and Boris Johnson would have an aneurysm so that won't happen because of politics so when people say the BBC is neutral and it's not subject to government pressure this will be a pretty good example if Lewis Goodall gets that job I will agree with you but I don't think he will Amal Rajan would also be another good bet he can be quite heterodox he can be quite interesting he's a good broadcast journalist and then you're looking at the outside as Michael I don't know if you saw this but just before we went live on air a bookmaker put odds of Ash Sarkar at 66 to 1 and she put myself they put myself at 100 to 1 but Michael I was asking myself where is you guessed it Michael Walker because you are I think you know Navarra's most astute Westminster head I would have had you at least 50 to 1 so what's going on Michael it's an outright maybe you're the dark horse I've been shaking my head all morning because yeah I mean I feel pretty hard done by here although I have to say I think the odds are ridiculous let's get up the odds this is a Daily Mail graphic based on the Betfair odds so it has John Sopell at six to four I mean that sounds you know quite likely he's very much like a BBC political editor which is that he's all he talks about it all like a soap opera Lewis Goodall at five to two he is definitely not the second favourite for this job as Aaron said that they're not going to hire this guy because it would be the end of the license fee Chris Mason 11 he's actually good perfect yeah exactly 11 to 1 possible Emily Maitlis 6 to 1 again definitely not going to happen they're not going to put Emily Maitlis in that job because again they would probably cut the license fee because she's you know she's quite keely a remainder and not particularly Boris Johnson Ben Brown at 8 to 1 and as you say Amal Rajan at 16 to 1 maybe he's the if I was a betting person and I wanted to bet on someone who could get the job but also you get a decent payout I think I'd probably go for him um moving on from speculation though let's focus on Laura Koonsburg and her record in the role um I've chosen one clip which I think sums up her style of journalism more than any other hello that's quite all right you okay I'm sure we can get you so I've just been pummeled by the best try I thought wasn't I just try I thought it was Robert thank you very much thank you that was an education as always thank you very much thank you see you see you see you see you later yeah you can't see laughing at breaking scales of laughter you know just seem to meet me see laughing at you or with you I think you have to understand about Boris Johnson he really wants to be loved and actually underneath it oh he's quite shy but we all know someone like that right we all know someone who plays the clang because they don't want to be themselves you we all know someone who wants to play the clown because they don't want to be themselves I mean why I think that really sums up the problems of Laura Koonsburg is because it is politics is psychodrama politics is so pop bra but also it's wrong you know Boris Johnson isn't shy Boris Johnson has a real put-on persona to make him seem awkward he's actually an incredibly calculated person as you know people who write about the the occasions where he sort of turns up late to a meeting with his papers all ruffled and he sort of pretends that oh I've almost forgotten my speech and then he does the exact same performance at another charity do in a year's time he's a very calculated person and Laura Koonsburg not only falls for it but she then projects it to the 60 million Britons which I think is it's quite frustrating and for a characteristic tweet um let's go to this this is how she responded to Keir Starmer becoming Labour leader whatever your own politics this is a really big moment Labour could now be an opposition that gets things done plus carries out effective scrutiny irrespective of anyone's ideas Labour under Corbyn struggled ever to do that now one of the reasons it struggled to ever do that was because Laura Koonsburg was conflicting outrages about Corbyn not wanting to kill terrorists um which she had to apologize for afterwards so this this this pro establishment bias of Laura Koonsburg where it's completely fine to delegitimize Jeremy Corbyn um because you know he's not seen as as as a Westminster insider she's a Westminster insider anyone who's not she just doesn't understand and she seemingly doesn't even consider it to be biased to to say um that Corbyn was useless in opposition as I say though deference to the establishment is not just a feature of Laura Koonsburg we shouldn't say this is all about her it seems to be built into the role Andrew Ma was one of Koonsburg's predecessors this is how the then political editor reported the fall of Saddam Hussein 26 days after the launch of the Iraq war I've been watching ministers wander around with smiles like split watermelons well Mr Blair's had his share of troubles and worries as you rightly say over the past few weeks we've talked about the many times yeah to what extent has that changed now today well I think this does one thing um it draws a line under what had been before this war a period of when a faint air of pointlessness almost was hanging over Downing Street there's all these slightly tawdry arguments and scandals that is now history uh Mr Blair is well aware that all his critics out there in the party and beyond aren't going to thank him because they're only human for being right when they've been wrong and he knows that there might be trouble ahead as I've said but I think this is a very very important moment for him it gives him a new freedom and a new self-confidence he confronted many critics I don't think anybody after this is going to be able to say of Tony Blair that he's somebody who is driven by the drift of public opinion or focus groups or opinion polls he took all of those on he said that they would be able to take Baghdad without a blood bath and that in the end the Iraqis would be celebrating and on both of those points he has been proved conclusively right and it'd be entirely ungracious even for his critics not to acknowledge that tonight he stands as a larger man and a stronger prime minister as a result he said they would be able to take Baghdad without a blood bath and that in the end the Iraqis would be celebrating and on both of those points he has been proven conclusively right and it would be entirely ungracious even for his critics not to acknowledge that tonight he stands as a larger man as a result I'd guess there are a few things ever said on national tv that have aged worse than that Aaron Andrew Ma used to be a Trotskyist he ended up spouting some of the most pro-establishment imperialist nonsense I think I've ever heard on on national television is there something about this role which means that people have to treat politics like like soap opera and have to have just a an offensively pro-establishment bias and and disregard the lives of of Iraqis to only pay attention to how much people are smiling in number 10 or not I thought you're gonna ask is there something about former Trotskyist pipeline to when I saw he was a member of the AWL actually backing imperialist wars isn't necessarily a huge leap but that's too niche for some of our or not only at all but I mean also there's just that there's a you know there's a huge number of people in similar situations you know Christopher Peter Hitchens um in new labor people like Alan Milburn um John Reed were involved in in Trotskyist Stalinist organizations um Jack Straw uh John Reed I mean remarkable transfiguration of his politics over the course of the 70s and 80s and I think a lot of that happened probably happened with Andrew Ma too as well Michael thatcherism changed the rules of the game to such an extent that these people just they converted it was like a religious conversion and why I think they've been so unable to adapt to politics post Brexit post Corbyn post financial crisis 2008 post COVID this kind of ensemble of crises and possibilities and just a new kind of politics emerging on the right on the left not always good the reason why I think they can't necessarily explain and understand it is because they've already converted once and it's very very rare that somebody converts once in their life let alone twice so you're sort of demanding they leave their new faith which they found in the 80s centrist social democracy highly socially culturally liberal economically quite conservative don't really want to change anything from the Thatcherite orthodoxy and actually that explains why I think people like Ma people like Mandelson uh people like Alistair Campbell can't really get to grips with politics and economics in the in the 21st century in terms of what he was saying you know we we also have to recognize Michael that the job of the BBC political editor the job of the BBC political editor not somebody who's bad at the job the job the job description is to effectively be a stenographer for power it is to effectively be a press officer for the government in a moment of crisis not all the time but if you're at war or during COVID-19 or when you know head of state passes away or during a national emergency of some kind the BBC time after time has demonstrated but it's a regime broadcaster and that's not that's not a left right issue that is about it being effectively an outside flank of the state working on its behalf and it this in 1926 with the general strike and you and you can think it was right and doing so or disagree with it it did something very similar during the Second World War the same applies I would agree with that it was a war against Nazism but the same applies and really all the way through to the 80s and the 90s in the Iraq war generally speaking the BBC's coverage of these stories wasn't about informing entertaining educating the public but actually offering a cultural and political pillar of support for the government of the day so when people say that the BBC has a left right bias I think they get it all wrong fundamentally the BBC has a bias towards the sitting government and then if we're going to talk about its kind of ideological values yes culturally and socially liberal but absolutely resistant to economic distribution which is why yeah they had a few problems Boris Johnson but my word they prefer him to the likes of Jeremy Corbyn or all the Labour left and that's really crystallized and somebody like Laura Coonsburg you know the idea for her and she's the BBC politics editor Michael you know Jeremy Corbyn 140 percent well Labour under Jeremy Corbyn 140 percent of the 2017 general election clearly they'll clearly you might not think all of it was because of the policies and so on but clearly there was a big appetite for the policies and the ideas in the party manifesto she's not remotely interested she's not remotely curious somebody like Lewis Goodall I think he's quite a curious guy same with Amal Rajan they're quite curious and interested in in politics beyond their preconceptions and their prejudices something like Andrew Ma somebody like Laura Coonsburg no which is why they're the BBC political editor and the likes of Lewis Goodall I really I think it's highly unlikely I would foreclose that possibility despite the bookmakers odds in the in the Daily Mail so yes the problem with the BBC political editor role I think you're right should be seen slightly distinctly from from the inhabitants of that role and I think we need you know an industrial editor of the BBC I think you need to probably dismantle the role a little bit you know Laura Coonsburg she can tweet something and it can completely undermine the work of dozens if not hundreds of her colleagues in the same organization people say the BBC's line on something is X well actually the PM show today world at one six o'clock news the website they all say something different but because of her Twitter feed from a good many people that's the BBC line and I think there's clearly a problem with that in a public service broadcaster it gives so much power to one person who as I've said not particularly good at their job but also I think the role itself has problems we've got a comment on this topic julian pd tweets on the hashtag tisky sour can't wait for big tobacco john sopell to rock up outside Downing Street really morally repugnant journalist now that is a reference to john sopell giving an off the record keynote presentation to a global tobacco giant so I think this was while he was the US editor in a couple of statements Philip Morris international that's the tobacco giant said the terms of john sopell's speech including how much he was paid and what he said were confidential and this is not a guy who's short of money john john sopell is one of the best paid journalists at the BBC he gets 240,000 pounds a year but he still felt it necessary to go and give this this speech we don't know how much he was paid raja d with 449 thank you very much if the Tories had invested so much in ventilation as they did giving out lucrative contracts to their friends what a difference that would have made a very important point there would there would have been some easy steps that could have been taken that could have made this winter a bit less miserable than it could be we have almost 1500 people watching the show live only 291 likes let's get those up it helps us on the algorithm on last Friday's show we discussed tweets from Dominic Cummings attacking Keir Starmer as an uber dud while that attack has now been expanded into a 12,000 word blog post it's titled how could Labour win swap dud dead player Starmer for a midlands woman shift HQ to a Tory held midlands marginal focus on economy and crime he says Labour should live in the village focus on the public and marginalised trans BLM nutters if you've forgotten how right-wing he is and then he has a quote from Boris Johnson thank god I'm up against Keir and haven't got to deal with Blair or I'd be totally fucked that's Boris Johnson in self-aware mode speaking in July 2020 as I say it's 12,000 word blog post it does have you know a lot of interesting content we're just going to take you through some of the key arguments so on Starmer Cummings says he is a dead player that means he's someone who can only act according to pre-existing scripts he can't you know adapt to the moment or set the agenda he gives a couple of examples of this so he says for all his babble at PMQs there is no summary of a coherent description of Boris's catastrophic handling of the pandemic the vaccine success and their failure to make progress has scarred them so much they've abandoned even talking about the fact the PM killed over 100,000 people while making jokes about it and Starmer has bounced around so much and is now taken so un-seriously it's hard to see how he could do this even if he were given the ammo by someone who knows what they're doing he goes on it's so basic it's a sign of a total dud that he hasn't even tried to have an economic story particularly when Boris has trollied around all year and deliberately ruined relations with his own chancellor paralyzing the government's own economic story all he can say about jobs, investments, skills and so on is flat platitudes that leave no mark on the news never mind public consciousness Cummings also says Starmer failed to take advantage of Johnson saying at conference that shortages were not his problem he said Starmer should have been hammering Boris Johnson about that instead he said nothing and he calls Sir Keir a pro-remain lawyer who floats around SW1 burbling empty platitudes parroting every cliche about sexism racism trans so psychologically incapable of challenging the system that he even supports the Met management when they're tweeting advice to women to flag down a bus while the rest of the country clutches their heads all this is why Cummings thinks Labour should get rid of Starmer and replace him within his words a woman from the Midlands perhaps Lisa Nandy that's his suggestion once that leader is in place he suggests Labour should focus on the economy and on crime he writes the following don't focus the bulk of your activity on the NHS the public and media will focus on the NHS this will be good for you your challenge is to make progress on the public's other big priorities where you do not have big structural advantages people already trust you on the NHS in the same way we shove Boris in a hospital throughout 2019 Lisa should always be on TV with local businesses and police when it comes to the economy Cummings says as you saw there that they should make connections with small businesses on crime he gives a bunch of examples of how Labour should be attacking the Tories on this issue I'll give you one example just to sort of a taste of what is in there so he suggests target assaults all over the country people see serious assaults causing permanent injuries getting joke sentences get some examples and promise changes so severe a load of the usual suspects attack you the Tories will implode David Davis will start some ludicrous civil liberties campaign which you then hang around Boris's neck creating more infighting and so on other things that Cummings advises is that Labour avoid talking about trans issues or Black Lives Matter as they make it seem like the party care about things the public don't Aaron I mean it's clear that when it Cummings is quite right wing from a lot that is written in his blog post is it also the case that on on on strategy and how one wins an election he might be talking a bit of sense he's won a number of campaigns not going the euro northeast assembly vote leave and of course the 2019 general elections that's four campaigns so you know if he's if he's offering general rules and laws and dictums and logic about how to win campaigns I think it's worth listening to clearly it's important to say that the specifics of what he's saying for instance on trans rights is nonsense and I think to say I think this is worth reading isn't the same as saying I agree with all of it I think what he's saying is I think a what he's saying in that about for instance trans rights is it's morally repugnant I also think strangely enough it doesn't actually have any basis in statistical evidence in terms of what people think all the polling thinks for instance it's generally on side with the left's view on this that they don't think it's a hugely salient issue and you would expect that to be the case but but the idea that sort of the turfs are the political common sense isn't isn't really isn't really accurate you know we've done some sort of graphics about this on the Navarra media social media and so on I think most people have this default of live and let live where they find things strange is that it becomes as big politicals of albatross but I think that's more of a media confection than anything else now one thing I find really interesting is he refers to 1992 clinton campaign and he says that the clinton campaign had this really neat method of responding to everybody they had these rules health care it's the economy stupid and something else just three four lines of course we've all heard it's the economy stupid three or four very simple lines and you know what this reminded me of michael 2017 labor general election campaign where you know labor had a great rebuttal line to strong and stable and they said well actually the Tories are strong against the weak and weak against the strong that was Theresa May's number one line gone redundant secondly that their big core vote is older people well they're going to give you a dementia tax wow that offered exposure on Theresa May like nothing else finally for the many not the few big master frame you can pawn every single policy issue you slam the Tories you polarize it get the majority on side a master class from Corbin and actually look the people around him in 2017 of course nobody in the political in the political media in this country could say that it's hinted at in that piece it's hinted at and that that elegance and that sophistication and sort of basic basic offer being able to insert every single criticism and policy within sort of three or four premises which labor did in 2017 kia starmer is incredibly incapable of doing you know when five words are due kia kia starmas is 55 when he was on the tv yesterday he says he says the government needs to get a grip it's out of touch i'm i'm calling them out i'm putting them on notice it doesn't mean anything kia and one thing that really did stick with me finally was the observation that when you're doing press particularly say a you know a piece of camera for the six o'clock news it doesn't matter what you say you have to understand the the median voter is watching you effectively with the volume turned off if not literally metaphorically and i think a perfect example of that michael was immediately following the heartly pool by election oris johnson was up in heartly pool by a royal navy you know this is a sightseeing place i can't remember the name of the boat a historic boat up in heartly pool talking to people shaking hands being a man of the people meanwhile kia starmer was in west minster nexus and folders looking very staid looking very uncomfortable very claustrophobic now in the minds the people advise in kia starmer you look prime ministerial you're a west minster you look like a proper politician and look people people don't want a political incompetent in charge of a party and they don't want somebody who's chaotic and crazy in charge of the country although arguably we've got that with boris johnson but at the same time you have to look normal and there's this weird thing michael with the with the labor center in particular they've internalized this massively you have to be kind of weird and odd and incapable of communicating clearly incapable of getting on a level with most people they have this weird labor ease accent like they all talk in the same stilted estuary english way you know rachel reeves is the worst and they think this is good they think this is actually positive and it means they're the professional politicians what they don't grasp and this is where i think dominick comings is right michael is that only about several thousand people all of them live in london think that nobody else thinks like this but because they all sleep with each other have drinks with each other go to one other's events just talk to each other spend christmas with each other and neighbors with each other that they think that is the political compass of the country and so his suggestion of moving labor hq out of london that's the first thing they should do i totally agree stick it in the west midlands although it's important to say michael wigan isn't in the midlands probably says something about his geography but we'll leave that to one side you know maybe stick it in the northeast but i think the west midlands is perfect and you would have a very different set of outcomes it's super easy michael to work in sw1 to never leave zone one to have quite a nice decent lifestyle and decent wage living in london and think the whole country is like that and it's not now it doesn't mean you embrace social conservatism and his anti-lgbt rants but it but it does mean you identify who you need to convince and on what issues and so you know i think there's a lot of wisdom in this piece and i would say for people out there is it worth a ten pound a month on sub sub stack no it's not subscribe to navara media instead you'll get more or more value from us talking about him rather than reading the thing itself and also michael finally 12 000 words i was reading it scrolling down i'm thinking christ when's this going to end it was useful well listen kia starmas my position was 12 000 words wasn't it and i i read this one i read the coming's blog much more easily than the kia starmer one um that's true i should say i on trans rights because i think it's important actually for the left to understand it the public is on side on some things and not on others so the pub but there's a really interesting you gov poll which asks people what they do support and what they don't so if you ask people should people be able to self identify as whatever gender they want people say yes because i think people think you know that's just manners live and let live but when you ask people should trans women be able to use male toilets they say only after they've had full um you know genital operations or whatever i'm not saying i back that position i'm just saying there is a you need that argument needs to be one i think there is i think there is a danger that someone the left think that you can sort of make things to boo before the argument has been had and won and it's definitely not the case um the the public is automatically on side with with what people like stonewall are calling from calling for sorry um that's not to say that argument shouldn't be had let's go to some of the interesting exchanges which resulted from that blog we're going to go to paul mason's response he says in dom's brain where 500 000 labor members are just cannon fodder the leadership would focus relentlessly on crime anti trans stuff and go relentlessly for swing voters that's exactly what labors own focus groups also say but the reason this cannot happen has nothing to do with starmer being dud it is because the party is an active coalition of social forces that do obsess with various aspects of social of the social liberal agenda Cummings completely underestimates the potential power of labor as a social coalition the inescapability of its slow lumbering bureaucratic modus operandi is inseparable from its power to enact change because ultimately for Cummings and here's the sad part the reality of class struggle does not exist its dynamic remains mysterious as they can't be MRP polled and so the huge and dramatic shifts that are possible once people get on the streets irrespective of what the bureaucracy does are not in his playbook he goes on Cummings for example thinks it's really cool that johnson won by proroguing parliament and lying to the queen he looks through the mass active resistance movement we built simply because it lost and thus sees blm e2 gaza etc as threats to narratives to labors narrative rather than opportunities so to to that fred the idea of using proroguing parliament as an example where actually it was the movement that won that battle or where it doesn't think it won it but you know ultimately was strengthened i mean i think in retrospect the whole stop the coup movement seems a bit silly frankly um i think goris johnson got that right i'm not saying i necessarily you know i was sat on the fence at the time um and let's look at how dominic Cummings responded he said the people you need to vote for you to win agree with me that gaza and blm are at best distractions from the serious problems they face you can discuss stuff like that without having it define you as a fringe they care about their kids more than gaza so that's dominic Cummings pool mason replies i'm assuming you are here discounting britain's three million muslims here when they see civilian deaths in gaza it's their kids they think of and ask any black person if police racism is a distraction but your point taken ignore our mass ace and focus on tori swing voters dominic Cummings responds and stamp collecting is important to stamp people a party seeking power either as a debating society for graduates or trying to win if later you must focus not ignore mass base but like fdr obama bill clinton speak to the country first good leaders manage this balance again we talked about a Cummings mason exchange last week and again even though i don't share his politics i kind of agree with dominic Cummings here and i think that whole exchange you have to understand in reference to the last four years of the labor party because clearly where poor mason is coming from is that labor were right to adopt a second referendum because the movement wanted a second referendum and therefore the power of the labor party only happens when it you know falls into line with what the grassroots are demanding now i disagree personally i think that what jeremy corbin should have done is in 2017 say no we're completely ruling out we have to accept the the result and then bring people with him that's leadership leadership is you set the direction and you bring people with you so corbin should have said no not happening at all but i still think that you movements you you you should come along with me because i'm going to offer economic transformation i'll have a progressive refugee policy for example if you just have your platform as an agglomeration of different demands it's going to be an absolute mess that's exactly what the 2019 general election was by the way it was an agglomeration of all these disparate demands which didn't make any sense to anyone so i think Cummings is right here and poor mason is wrong again even if i'm closer to poor mason's politics aron what do you make of this idea poor mason saying it's actually the the bureaucratic slowness of labor that gives its gives it its strength to change things do you buy that i just think he's talking nonsense michael i just don't i don't understand what paul was saying anymore personally class struggling i i what's class struggle class struggle was 5000 people saying stop the coup in west minster 5000 people is the class struggle mostly graduates mostly under 40 that's the class struggle really well class struggle is mostly you know 30 guys in nice suits going into media green rooms as part of a multimillion pound campaign to stop brexit called the people's phone was that the class struggle come on i i think paul likes to use these words but i often think he doesn't know what he's talking about when he uses them in terms of obviously dominant Cummings is view of political change and political action yes it doesn't include class struggle it doesn't include the possibility of people's ideas being changed by political forces class forces beyond west minster ironically given he hates west minster good example tax avoidance tax justice in 2010 barely on the agenda because of activist movements and pressure from outside of parliamentary mechanisms now tax justice is a hugely salient issue no politician who wants to be elected and liked can say i don't care about tax avoidance whereas 10 years ago they could so on things like that that yes dominant Cummings clearly has um it's a lacuna and how he understands politics equally palestine you know why why do you think labor almost lost battalion spend right one big reason was that they weren't taken seriously when it came to foreign policy so firstly if you want to govern britain you yeah you need to have a position on israel palestine it's a major foreign policy issue so yes you should have a position on it secondly the idea that it's not politically salient well i would agree with paul there you've got several thousand people in a bunch of constituencies which if you don't go a certain way on things it's going to leave you in trouble so i don't agree with everything he said i think that the way to look at dominant Cummings and his his output is to say that on the specifics i think he can be wildly wrong but actually when he's talking about sort of general laws and dynamics and ways of doing things historical examples i think he's really sharp um i thought paul's response to him made zero sense to me and dominant Cummings he's very heterodox i don't agree with a great deal of what he says he gets you thinking that that used to be paul mason it used to be it isn't anymore i hope that changes because he i think paul read that piece and thought oh that's the kind of thing i want to be doing for the left you know he went through this phase of about two years saying here's what corbin should do here's what the left should do and that's let's be honest that's that's not that's not journalism it's not a feature it's not reportage it's still interesting i've written pieces like that he clearly wants to become the sort of guru um for the left in a way that Cummings has for for the right and that's not happened so there's a little bit of resentment shining through i think michael i have to say i do agree a lot more dominant Cummings just like even though my politics are nowhere nowhere near his and there are many substantial arguments i disagree with that he makes this stuff about the class struggle come on he but then again michael look paul mason is the person who said if you don't understand kia starmer as being labor leader you're failing to grasp social democracy from a marxist perspective i mean it's just these are just words it's just doesn't mean anything if you are already in a volume to subscribe thank you so much you make all of this possible if not please do go to the borrow media dot com slash support and we ask for the equivalent of one hour's wage a month we really do appreciate it that's what keeps this this whole thing going final story the health of the queen is once again a subject of speculation among britain's press that's because it has that's because it has been revealed her majesty spent wednesday night in hospital after canceling a visit to northern island it had originally been reported she just needed some rest and the delay in passing on that message might seem understandable perhaps a 95 year old didn't want cameras chasing her to hospital they waited a couple of days until they told the truth the untruths though have really got under the skin of nicolas witchell that's the bbc's royal correspondent let's take a look it quite difficult to read this we were led to believe on wednesday by buckingham palace that the queen was resting at winsor castle and as we were being told that by buckingham palace and of course we were relaying that to our viewers and listeners and newspapers to their readers in point of fact she was in hospital undergoing these what are now described as preliminary investigations so we weren't given the complete picture then the palace and one can understand the palace's perspective on this they would say that the queen is entitled to patient confidentiality to medical privacy and that sort of thing notwithstanding that she is the head of state and that millions of people in this country and around the world will be concerned the problem it seems to me is that rumor and misinformation always thrives in the absence of proper accurate and trustworthy information now will we get further information from buckingham palace today about her condition i just don't know but i think we need to recover a little bit from what happened on wednesday we are told that there were preliminary investigations taking place well that would suggest that after preliminary investigations there may be some further subsequent investigations we're told that she's in good spirits that would certainly be in line with her stoical character but that's a phrase it's a little bit of a cliche now this in good spirits we're told that she's back at winsor castle undertaking light duties well we must hope that we can place reliance on what the palace is telling us he is pissed we must hope we can depend on the reliance of what the palace is telling us it was quite a surreal intervention making it more odd was that he was wearing a black tie and bbc hosts and presenters they're supposed to wear those black ties when the royals have died so even that was you know somewhat threatening you know lie to me again and we'll see what can happen or it was him indicating that he's he's now got no trust in what they say that the queen could be dead and he doesn't know about it so he's going to wear a black tie until he sees her in person because he does not trust anything that comes out of the palace anymore our he seemed genuinely hurt didn't he as well as fuming yeah it's quite funny isn't it i mean for people who aren't british watching that they might not grasp the gravity of what he's saying for a bbc royal correspondence talking those terms about palisades is it's basically like calling them the c word saying they're useless they should f off you know this is about as rude as it gets i think the exact word he says was cliche to say that they're offering cliches to the bbc royal correspondent when her majesty's sorry her royal highness her royal highness's health is being questioned i agree and i think with the black suit the black tie very suspect michael very very very suspect you know uh it's a bit like a criminology we have a bit with politics in this country but it's more so with the with the royal household nobody has a clue what's going on in there nobody has a clue michael isn't it interesting it's interesting it's also incredibly mundane every time on the on the because i listen to the world at wild on radio for quite often and sometimes pm and the thing that always shocks me is every time they say we're going to now talk to our bbc correspondent and every time it's a different person i'm like how many bbc how many sorry royal correspondent not bbc correspondent how many royal correspondents can you possibly have as an organization it's like they've got a whole team devoted to just you know conveying press releases from the palace to the public there was a great job though michael what a group can you imagine like yeah i would love it do nothing just sit on your arse all day just sit in london go to buckingham palace down the road you know talk to a palisade once a week i suppose that's why nicholas which was was so pissed off because he only has you know he only has one job which is to find out where the queen's about to die and he's like if you had one job if you take this from me i want to go to a quote from the guardian it was from a story about laura kunesberg moving on but it was i think telling when it comes to how seriously the corporation takes covering the royals and the potential death of the queen let's go to it one bbc individual who is not moving jobs is andrew ma who has been given a fresh contract to continue presenting his eponymous sunday morning political interview show sources suggested part of the reason for this is his work producing bbc programs that will be broadcast when the queen dies how to cover this inevitable and eerie defying news stories increasingly playing a role in shaping the bbc's planning for the next few years coverage of the end of the monarch's life is due to be presented by the news at 10 host q edwards although he recently suggested he was considering his future as host of the corporation's evening flagship show so for this story which i mean it will clearly be a big news story but i mean it's not it's not exactly surprising is it this 95 year old is one day gonna sadly pass away and the bbc is not letting people retire or move on until she dies so andrew ma has has got his sunday morning gig even though i mean i think he's not a particularly good interviewer he's never very good at sort of getting um he's never very good at putting interviewees in an awkward situation in the way that someone like andrew neal is i think they should probably try someone else but apparently the reason he is remaining in that job is because he's made some you know prior documentaries about the queen dying and they're going to keep him in that role until she goes so if she lasts another 10 years that's another 10 years of the andrew ma show it and q edwards what if he wants to resign he can't resign because he's he's due to host the show when she pops her clogs aron it's kind of extraordinary isn't it the national broadcaster who has what job is determined by them or not one in the rock the boat until a 95 year old passes away well what a way to run a multi-billion pound organization can you imagine any other organization let's sorry you're going to be you're going to be the chief of operations until this person dies could be 10 years sorry i mean you could be in your 70s sorry you might get ill you might have a terminal illness sorry there's unbelievable isn't it i think i think as well michael you know in a way a more substantial story because this is of course just speculation um is that barbados got its first i think elected president in the last 48 hours and barbados is going to become a republic um and i think what's an open secret really is that many of these countries in the west indies are going to become republics we have the commonwealth still and the queen is still the head of state for a great many countries and that will change and it will accelerate once queen Elizabeth II dies and so that adds an extra gravity to the the political nature of her her passing when it happens it's going to be a truly extraordinary event michael in many ways it will be the sunset on the british empire um because of course she ascended to the throne in the 1950s britain was still very much an imperial power still very much a world power this was a country which developed you know commercial nuclear energy before the united states before china had a satellite program had nuclear weapons uh before china i believe you know it was a world power when she was the monarch um was of course outside the european union you saw the global sterling area and of course now in 2021 britain is just a regular country in the north atlantic 65 million people medium-sized economy well large economy but you know just a medium-sized power it can do really impressive things but only in collaboration with other countries and she is kind of the avatar of that thing which is lost and so when people say oh you know there are no black people in british history oh this is ridiculous it's always been a white country it's like well britain was an empire britain fundamentally was the british empire it referred to this thing which covered in the last century a quarter of the planet surface and she's the last remnant of that and so when she goes institutions like the bbc the military uh the british establishment are fundamentally going to have to re-examine who they are what they're about what this country is about and of course they don't want to do that and so the act of mourning will be so inflated so so theatrically over the top and the reason why is because they want to extend this sort of political status quite further it's going to be very difficult though as the as the example of shows you know many people had respect both inside britain but also beyond it had respect for the institution of the monarchy because they had respect for the person of Queen Elizabeth II and once she passed away then that loyalty that fidelity that respect the institution all of a sudden that looks a lot more questionable thank you everyone for your super chats tonight and your comments and it's been a pleasure as always being joined by you on a Friday evening michael big respect to you for uh for for soldering through michael but it could say a bit of british grit i have had a lateral flow test don't worry um we'll be back on monday at seven p.m so do have a great weekend you've been watching tisky sour on the good night