 Let's get more on that latest Fed chatter. We've got Casper Wolski standing by from big securities now Casper great to see you over there. What did you make of that said chatter overnight? We seem to have won every which way That's right. Good morning there Yeah, we're seeing the Fed come out with a lot of a lot of hawkish starter talking up this prospect of a rate hike By the end of the year interestingly though Daniel Tolaro Fed governor last night's talking down the idea and and probably he's he's in the minority at the Fed at the Moment most of the members they're leaning towards Toward the hawkish side and and this idea of a rate hike But it's interesting to see you know markets aren't really buying into into what the Fed is saying Yeah, absolutely, and then there's a whole lot of data out in the United States tonight It's a really big drop actually most notably. We've got some inflation numbers as well What are you expecting and do you think this could be a tipping point as to whether or not they go in December? Yeah, that's right. We've got inflation Later out this week, but it's otherwise. It's also a big data week. We've got some, you know, we've got You PPI the page book out. There's a lot to look forward to and I think you know If you're looking at what the feds doing I think it's pretty easy to expect them to continue to talk up this idea of a Rate hike regardless of how that data looks we saw them do that with the with the weak employment data that came out the week before last You know pretty pretty dismal figures there But they didn't really pay much acknowledgement to it and and continue to talk up this idea of a rate hike So it's they've probably lost a little bit of credibility with the market and the markets are now purely looking at what data comes out to guide them as to as to what the Fed is going to do later this year and and that's really feeding into Intervolatility as as the Fed isn't really able to to guide his market expectations at the moment What was the action like in the bond markets overnight? Well, we saw generally as a risk-off session. We saw US Treasuries Returning to market they had a day off on on the back of the Columbus Day holiday on Monday So they had a bit to catch up on and we saw that that weak trade data out of China yesterday Which which drove up the safe haven bid with with US Treasury yields down about five basis points now hovering just over 2% And quite a lot of volatility of late particularly in fixed income. What's been driving that? Yeah, I think it comes back to that point I mentioned about the the Fed sort of losing their ability to mark guide market expectations But at the same time we've got this two-speed global economy at the moment The the US trying to get off this zero interest rate policy stance But the rest of the world really struggling for growth struggling for inflation and talking up the idea of further stimulus So there's a few opposing factors there And markets kind of a rational on the back of it when we see bad economic data We're seeing risk actually rally in the hopes of further stimulus But at the same time that uncertainty and volatility is is is picking up the bid for safe haven bid So, you know, if you're looking at short-term yields in the US, they're actually some of them actually trading in negative territory So a few a few opposing factors and and in light of the low low low interest rate environment We're actually seeing costs for corporate issuers to come to market and raise funds increase So you're seeing corporate issuers drop off and and that's really having an impact on real investment in the economy You know so a lot of volatility and I think it's gonna gonna stay that way until we we see this eventual Fed rate hike All right, and back to our own central bank. We've seen markets pricing in that Fed hike well into next year Does that bring for the idea of an RBA cut? Yeah, I think it does we've seen this you know this realignment of expectations for the Fed rate hike into next year And and that's that's about a lot of risk on activity Which is which has propped up our our currency over the last couple of weeks And I think we might be getting to this point where the RBA Starts to expressly view that as being too high and it might put that RBA rate cuts back on the table We've we've also got some some data to look out for this week Domestic employment out tomorrow, but we've also got CPI out of China today So important data for the RBA to look out for and I think it's probably gonna gonna realign market expectations for a rate cut All right Casper. Thank you very much. Good morning. Thank you. Casper Balski there from FIG security