 Good afternoon or good morning as case I be you're all very very welcome to this latest edition of the development matters series, which is hosted by Irish aid the Irish government's development cooperation program with With the incident international and European affairs were really delighted to be joined today by Rebecca Greenspan Who is the Secretary-General of the UN conference on trade and development? Um, Rebecca has been generous enough to take time out of her extremely Bouted schedule to speak to this II a audience today and we're really delighted and privileged Before I go further. I will hand over to Michael Gaffey director-general of Irish aid to say a few words Thank you very much, David Just checking. Can I be heard? Yes? Yes Great. Thank you very much, David And it really is a big honor and a real pleasure for me as director-general of Irish aid to to welcome Rebecca Greenspan Secretary-General of on tad to this II a development matters series David will I know introduce Rebecca's very very Impressive CV, but I just want to say that she is a renowned Economist and advocate of human development and has had a very distinguished career so far at the United Nations And before that she held a number of ministerial positions in her beautiful home country of Costa Rica and on tad the UN conference on trade and development Supports developing countries to access the benefits of a globalized economy more fairly and effectively and was established by the UN General Assembly in 1964 so next year 2024 is the 60th anniversary of on tad and Not bike by coincidence next year is the 50th anniversary of Irish aid of Ireland's effectively of Ireland's development policy And and it's interesting because why did Ireland establish our shade because we joined what was the European Economic Community? Now the European Union it was one of the requisites of being a member that you establish a development program And I often think that we in Ireland in our development trajectory Have benefited hugely from being a member of the European Union from pooling sovereignty and from developing those trading and investment Relationships that brought Ireland in a very small number few decades from being Essentially a developing country to one of the more prosperous developed countries in the world So I think we have a particular role to play In in in helping bridge gaps that may develop from time to time or may exist between the developed and the Developing world and the world at the work of on top on tad It really chimes very well with Ireland's commitment to supporting inclusive and sustainable economic growth We know that developing countries need ongoing support to build trade infrastructure develop policies and simplify the process of trading across Borders and we know the complexity complexities of the relationship between trade and development We know it particularly because of our own experience and And we welcome the strong commitments conveyed by on tad in relation to climate and biodiversity crises I say this as having just returned myself from cop at the weekend Global trade is both part of the problem and part of the solution and we really look forward to hearing from Rebecca on on this Ireland's works with on tad and has supported in particular. It's port management program since 2007 which actually brings benefits is an all Ireland program of helping developed countries ports train Train their people and you know, it brings together ports in Ireland and has helped us in Ireland Develop as well as working with developing countries as well We also are a supporter of on tad's depth management and financial analysis system program Which is one of the leading providers of technical cooperation and advisory services in the area of debt management an area debt On which I know Rebecca will speak today So just to conclude it is it is unfortunately the case that we live in a world of overlapping crises political security economic development humanitarian and all in the overall Existence a framework of the existential threat of of climate change So on tad which has been for years a really strong actor in terms of thinking and reporting on development I think has an increasingly important role to play It may have been in recent years that the european union and more developed countries have not played the same role with on tad that they might have But I think the importance of on tad is becoming really clear in this in this era of multiple crises and none none And perhaps that became incredibly clear when the un secretary general astro brekka green span and on tad To play take a leading role on the black sea grain Deal in the in the in the conflict with ukraine a very important role for on tad there So I would just say that at this time When trust and confidence is needed more than ever between the so-called developed and the so-called developing world I would say that the role of on tad cannot be overemphasized there is a really important role for on tad to play I think as secretary general rebecca greenspan has already been working really hard to build trust and confidence in the work of the organization And I really look forward to hearing from her now on the role that on tad can play globally in this difficult time And how ireland can work more effectively with you and with on tad you're very very welcome rebecca And we really look forward to hearing from you and I'll hand back to david now She'd speak to us for about 20 25 minutes And then we will go over to q&a People can join the discussion using the q&a function on zoom Please feel free to send in your questions at any point that they occur to you or your Commons and observations and we will come to them when the secretary general has finished our presentation A reminder that both today's presentation and the q&a are on the record Please feel free to join the discussion on X or formerly twitter using the handle at iiea We're also live streaming this morning's discussion. So a very warm welcome to all of you joining us by youtube Rebecca greenspan was appointed secretary general of untat in 2021 She is a very distinguished economist from her Native country Costa Rica and also a political leader having served as vice president From 1994 to 98 She's the first woman and be the first central american to hold the post of secretary general of untat She's a former under secretary general um at the UNDP and She also holds a number of people's michael touch on one a moment ago relating to the the black sea deal and she's also a member of the g20 high level independent panel on financing global commons for pandemic preparedness and response With that rebecca once again, you're you're warmly welcome And i'd now like to invite you to take the floor Thank you. Thank you so much. David. Thank you to the friends of iiea and to the irish 8 Thank you also michael for your extremely good introduction and for the generosity of you you both And well, thank you everybody that is listening and with us during this Dinner in this time Let me the title of my talk today was about what i called polyglobalization Dead trade and geopolitics, but i want to say Before starting that i really want this to be a conversation not not A one-way communication So i will try to be You know short relatively And I will expect to address a lot of the things also that michael put on the table In the questions and in the interaction with the public if that is okay so a We we we are no doubt in a New era of globalization. Yes, and there are Objective reasons for this there are subjective reasons for this And there are a lot of names that have been given already to this new period a You know Let me let me go through several of the names that this periods period has been given Go through the reasons for that because that gives us a very smooth entrance to the topic And then I will Try to explain why I call it polyglobalization. Yes, so daniel rodrick for example from harvard university is calling this era The era of productivism Yes, in reference to the return of industrial policy In the global economy and especially in the west a Arvind subrana Subramanian and martin kesler from the peterson Institute of economics that they just A release a very good paper last month Are calling this new era Big globalization in goods and slow balistation in services And in in each of these I will refer to them There is part of the phenomena that we are You know a a scene The economies magazine is calling this new era the era of homeland economics In reference to the growth of protectionism and the inward turn in trade And the wto and then many others have called this new era the era of Reglobalization Yes in reference to the need to return to trade as an engine for growth and development So I think of all these terms like Aspects of this new era It is true for example that as the peterson institute says There are part of trade That are deglobalizing As the paper well documents from 1992 to 2008 Global exports grew At close to 10 percent a year in nominal terms while gtp Grew at around a six percent per year And here was one of the Elements the important elements of what was called hyper globalization. Yes this period of hyperization where trade Was growing much faster than gdp and in a way was the engine of growth during all That period But since the global financial crisis trade has grown At a much slower rate than gdp growth this year for example And that is estimating that a Global gdp will grow at a rate of three percent and trade will grow Only one percent To put the example of today, but since the global financial crisis we have seen That slowing down of trade in the general economy I would say that the period of Of the COVID-19 and the pandemic and the rebound after the pandemic is Is just a period that Doesn't show the trend So the trend we have seen the structural trend has been more You know over slowing down so There are nuances in this deglobalization quote-unquote trade Because you know trade has not declined What has declined or slowed down is the rate of growth Yes Trade is still growing, but it is growing slow slower as I said before than gdp And that is what the data says. Yes Importantly is that it's true that there is this dematerialization of trade Goods are growing much slower Than services In fact digital services have been growing very well During the last period. So that's why Individuals of a document they talk also about this dematerialization of goods, you know And you know the the services part of this of this equation That's it Finance which is integral to trade and development has indeed deglobalized Without question Since the global financial crisis Foreign direct investment never recovered after the global financial crisis And foreign direct investment towards the global south It has really You know slow slow down So in a way the picture here is mixed, you know, and whatever this picture says Slow balisation Might might be a more up term than the globalization Yes, but this finance part Let me just emphasize here because in a way if we think aloud What are two Fundamental elements for the grow For the possibility to grow of the global south is trade and investment Yes, and both has not recovered since the global financial crisis Yeah, let me give you a one one indicator that I remember, you know a Africa receives only two percent of the investment that go Towards renewable energy only two percent Of total direct investment going to renewable energy that is one of the things that have been growing In terms of investment is in the west and in the north. Yes So the global south is not receiving The investment that they need in foreign direct investment and trade is slowing down So the two pillars Of the possibility of the developing world to catch up are very weak right now And so in global growth In average, you know have been slowing down too Because it's not only that trade is growing less Than gdp is that gdp is really Growing very slowly Yes, there is also a growth element a in the global economy When it comes to rodrick the return of industrial policies indeed A fact, you know, I still remember when I was in government when I was In the minister of finance in the 80s or when I was vice president in the 90s You know, we were really fighting with all the ify's and the international community Because we wanted to have a development strategy and a sectoral strategy And they said the best industrial strategy is the one that doesn't exist. That was The motto Of those years. Yes. And now industrial Industrial policy is back It is back with the vengeance as I said In a way And a Most but most of this new industrial policy is focused on renewable energies and critical minerals And you know, you have here the u.s. Has the inflation reduction act The u.s. Has the next generation funds Saudi Arabia has division 2030 Japan China Korea Are redoubling their investments Africa is hoping that the african continental free trade area Will add value to their critical Minerals and In south america is also thinking about doing the same that indonesia did with the nickel to do the same with the lithium Yes, so there are all these Things going on the problem is that all of this is being done under the gray song of a wto without an appellate body Yes So this means that there is a lack of ambiguity in the system And importantly this is happening In a context where the fiscal space of most developing countries is Not only zero in some of them negative Yes, because of the debt So what michael was saying about the cascading crisis, you know, we had we have climate change We had the pandemic we have the war in ukraine and now the war in gaza. Yeah, so all this cascading crisis a The have left the developing countries bare bone A with the exception of the emerging economy. So if you look at the Global panorama, you know, it's true that there there is a divergent path between the north and the south But within the north we see The u.s. Doing very well in europe Basically entering entering may be in recession And in the south you see the emerging economies doing well But the rest of the developing countries doing very badly So you have divergence in the two blocks, but you have divergence within the blocks also But the truth is that the the developing countries don't have the With the exception of some of the emerging They don't have the fiscal space to do an industrial policy based on subsidies and that has Even a make this problem even worse If the number I won't enter into the whole discussion of that But the number that we are giving Is that right now There are 3.3 billion people That live in countries that spend more in servicing the debt Than on health or education So almost half the planet Living countries that are spending more in service in the debt than in health and education So how how are we going to get to these sustainable development goals With that, you know, and why is it that we are not calling this a debt crisis Is because the markets are not suffering Most of the countries that are entering into a debt problem with the exception of argentina that is a case in itself And has been through history Yes But why the markets are not suffering is because the countries that are in debt trouble Are medium and small countries The emerging markets have been protected. They have different arrangements. Yes, they have swaps Or a contingency financial Flows that they can Tackle from But the other countries don't have it And so there as I say as I say markets are not suffering but people are Yes, and 3.3 billion people is not a marginal number Now returning to the to the many names We have the economies that as I said was emphasizing the issue of protectionism And it is true that there is a lot That the of what is going on In the context of geopolitics that is also a lot of protectionism A a rising again a lot referring to semiconductors and and also Interesting a part of this protectionism has focused on on renewables Yes It is well known that the inflation reduction act caused tensions with euro because of the local local a content restrictions in the in the ira. Yes electric cars Wind turbines and solar panels, especially those coming from china because of geopolitical A tensions are also under targeted sanctions as the economies reports and I quote America has in effect locked out Chinese solar manufacturers With hefty anti-dumping duties as a result solar modules are more than twice as expensive In the country in the u.s. As elsewhere Europe is sending mixed signals. Yes, the u has dropped earlier anti-dumping duties on chinese panels But on november it passed the net zero industry act Which will introduce minimum domestic content levels for public renewable energy contracts So this is the panorama And lastly we have the wto and the question of rig rig globalization What this emphasizes is the fact that under the previous era Of globalization rising trade when hand in hand with higher growth and accelerating development prospects During the previous era of globalization. We met the millennium development goals for poverty alleviation Five years ahead of schedule. Let's remember that because we all forgot already. Yes about the millennium development goals Today we are in the midpoint of the 2030 agenda And only 15 percent only 15 percent of all sustainable development goals are on track to be achieved in 2030 only 15 percent Well, uh, this is a very big problem as dgs as I say always are too big to fail They are More than a set of targets. They are our last Common agenda in a world that is more polarized polarized than ever in a world in desperate need of solidarity and multilateralism so We we we need to take this seriously. We know that millions of people are suffering out there We must have the wisdom to take this as a warning Because We are seeing the world today as it will look like in 2030 if the sdg fails So if we want a better world, yes, and not the Cascading crisis world that we are seeing today. We will need to Recover the dynamism and for the sustainable development agenda. Well, so Let me a go then now of why I call this new era polyglobalization In my view, the issue is that all the other terms That I have highlighted that have an important element to reflect on Are two western focus If you look at globalization from the south, there is not the globalization to speak of Those who were involved in the last two g20 presidencies For example in indonesia and that and in india can see very clearly the growing role Of the emerging economies and their views and desires for globalization This country is one more not less globalization This country is one You know a better a different kind of globalization One that is more adapted to the realities of 2023 and not of the realities of 1945 This has implications for the whole system For trade, yes, but also for finance and development finance For currencies for present security and for multilateralism itself These are two features that stand Out here one is regionally Regionalization And that's why we are calling this polyglobalization because we see Drive towards a regional Regionalization and let me give you an example Of what we have seen in regional trade agreements after the 2018-2019 financial crisis and so We have seen in the last Two decades regional trade agreements growth In a parabolic way From around 75 regional trade agreements in the year 2000 To now 325 Most of these growth has taken place in the last Five years So there is something here happening That some have talked about nearshoring and reshoring But this is more than only nearshoring or reshoring. This is also more regionalization And it's a regionalization Not to stop participating in global trade But to participate better in global trade You see it's not a regionalization To get away from global trade and from the global economy It's a regionalization to try to insert Ourselves in the global economy in a better in a better way And apart from regionalization the other feature that I see is a The the a What what can be called competitive multilateralism? Yes, that is that There is the centralized multilateralism happening You have the g7 the g20 the bricks just to Mention some And so It seems that what what we have is A multilateralism with competing poles In development finance through regional development banks Big overseas cooperation initiatives. We have the europe's global gateway america's built back better china's Belt and road initiative Yes Now This is still not a fragmented A fragmented system, but it's a competing system And I think that this is the other characteristic of this polyglobalization That we are seeing But as I said, so is we have this regionalism on the one hand and this competitive multilateralism On on the other one one data one indicator that I didn't Give you before about south-south trade because I said there is not the globalization in the south-south trade South-south trade has been growing at a nine point three percent on average for the last 20 years At a nine point three percent per average in the last 20 20 years so Let me See finish, you know start finishing with this idea there is a reconfiguration of The era of hyper globalization And there is a reconfiguration of the global value chains There there there is regionalization. There is industrial policy There is the drive for sustainability in trade and all of this is shaping this new Era where geopolitics is and and digitalization are also very important and strong forces in that reconfiguration So To to finalize I want to take one of the points that Michael referred to that is The trust deficit between the global north and the global south And how that unfolds in this era of polyglobalization Will in many ways set the trend for the decades to come Polyglobalization doesn't have to be bad put You know, polyglobalization could call for reimagining globalization One that transcends traditional West and north centric models and incorporates This diversification that we are seeing in the global economy And the different perspectives and needs particularly coming from the developing world A polyglobalization could be not a concept, but it could be A an action for a more cooperative more inclusive and more sustainable global future And we are we always Say this, you know healthy competition and deep and deep and deeper cooperation Competition doesn't necessarily have to be seen As a problem for the system Yes, it could help the global economy If we at the same time Can deepen our cooperation and coordination So we could we could go beyond conventional paradigms and work more collaboratively Corruptively towards a global economy that could benefit all now The jury is out there You know, the world can go instead Instead of healthy competition and deeper cooperation. It can go for fragmentation I really believe that decision Has not been taken By the big powers yet But if we don't You know a A journey our institutions to the new reality At the end That will end happening So thank you I don't hear you Sorry, thank you very much Becca those were extremely interesting and I thought provoking Insights, I mean there's a lot that we will relate to there I think that the emphasis you put on the kind of a new version of the new understanding of Globalization and the the idea of healthy competition between regions between different players That makes You know, it is it's a very positive perspective and I think it's very timely It reminded me a lot of how in Why the implementation of the Sustainable Development goes there's actually a greater emphasis now on regional energies regional Activity it's not purely a global agenda It's one where in many ways the momentum has to come from In individual countries, but also individual regions and what you Division you set out there for globalization in many ways parallels that Number of questions have have come in Rebecca. So let me begin with the issue of death relief I mean when I was I think you you were at the stg's summers in september And high level week and as you indicated there was a big Theme there about the need to make it easier for ldc's to to get Fair allocations from the international financial institutions and for in particular their debt burden to be eased One question here asks really what what ontar can do to promote fairer treatment of ldc's By the the ifis by the international financial institutions Particularly given that there has been heavy emphasis up to now on middle income countries So what what new direction can be taken by the world bank and imf and so on in order to Address the huge huge burden That developing countries have in terms of debt servicing and your particular And then statistic it is very very Striking there the one of the 3.3 billion people. I mean that that says it all and it's quite a Memorable figure anyway over to you with this question about Death relief and the role of ifis in lowering it Yeah, first of all, let's let's put the objective of what has to happen in these countries Let's remember That the number of countries that are commodity dependent has gone up not down So there you have already a problem. Yes If these countries don't diversify their productive structure They will continue to be ldc's They cannot add value. They will have this volatility in their economy. They are price Takers. Yes, they won't have enough jobs for the new For the youth and for the new generations They cannot make the transition to a sustainable future And now they have an opportunity because most of the critical minerals that we need for the energy transition are in the ldc countries And the numbers are striking. They have Africa has 80% of the reserves of manganese or or half of the reserves of lithium or You know, 60% of the reserve of platinum minerals or etc So what we are saying this is the moment in which they have to add value To the extractive and that means supporting them in the negotiations Looking at many of the investment agreements that they have signed in the past that doesn't allow them to do this And we have to look back to the trades to the Trade rules that doesn't allow these countries You know to add value as part of The policy instruments For example, Indonesia Indonesia just decided to Forbid The exports of nikam in as as raw material They were taken to wto and in the first instance of wto they lost Because trims The treaty doesn't allow to do that. You see my point with not with the with the rules And okay, they lost but they appealed and because there is no appellate body So nothing can happen But you know that that is the only way in which Indonesia can do some industrial policy Let's put it that way or diversification policy to add value What the west countries do they give subsidies But Indonesia cannot go that way and they give subsidies to supposedly green goods So they say we should be able to do this because this will help the green transition And so that will create another asymmetry with With the developing countries, but we can help these countries diversify We can help them in the negotiations You know in terms of their critical minerals we can push for more transparency For because of the elicit financial flows that always are related to this And the african free trade area can have a very Good impact on the possibility of the global value chains within the continent And so we are helping also african continent to You know to support we are supporting the free trade area in africa to The rules of origin are very important to add value and to you know These are very concrete things that we can do in practice Yes The other thing is that we need to help these countries with the digitalization agenda. Yes, the digital The new name of the game and they will have to Really leapfrog You know In the digital agenda. So we help them and support them in the digitalization and They are very concrete Programs that we have with many of these countries that have been very good. Let me give you an example with angola That is an lgc We made a program that was a very comprehensive program We were in angola for four years and there was somebody from angkata in angola every week for four years You know doing sectoral programming doing digitalization doing Norms and competition laws Etc. Etc. It has been a very well evaluated program one of the things we did is digitalization of customs You know how much their income in customs went up 44 percent Give me a policy that you Know for 44 percent of resource, you know of internal resource mobilization in the country So we can do that at the national level Now at the international level that was part of the question. Yes We are pushing the multilateral development banks Because they can scale up their loans They have become Too small for the challenge Too small for the challenge The world bank is today one fifth Of what they were with respect to the global economy in 1960 one fifth So the g20 had this Commission that made a series of recommendations For the multilateral development banks to improve Their balance sheets they can do much more with what they have And they need a new capitalization. They knew more capital And we are You know trying to push for an agenda that will allow the the the the development banks the network of development banks To scale up to 500 billion per year In terms of loans for the developing well If they do that they will have also They will have to change their models To to to be able to crowd in Private capital we know that they What they do can be much more, but it's not enough Yes, we need to bring Private investment But private investment won't come and you know easily unless They have the risking factors and the risking factors can come from the multilateral development banks That combination can be very important and the last point I will make Is a debt restructuring for this campus And the system that we have now is ineffective and very slow We have done three restructurants in three years And we have 52 countries in that position So, you know just Let's do the arithmetics Yes If you you know, there are countries that have been three years negotiating three years negotiating and they still have not received One additional dollar In their economies And I will make a political point here. I was I was in Costa Rica when we were negotiating Started in the 80s We finalized At the end of the 80s. That was The lost decade of latino america Yes, because that's what it took until we recover and stabilize the flows You know, if that will happen again, it's a disaster It's a disaster and you know what most of the countries that made All the adjustments to be able to pay the debt those political parties lost the election So you are you have these people that you know in in Africa, you know that I have seen Doing the right thing taking the right policies trying to be a good citizen in the world But they just receive punishment, you know Because it takes so long That when elections come the population Really, you know Don't support them because all they saw Is the stick and they never see the carrot and I think that we have to To have a more sensible system Thanks, Rebecca a couple of other questions here one relates to Your view of what kind of reforms are needed in the international financial institutions To give the global south greater representation Than it has at the moment. So this is a structural question and a second question relates to the stg's stimulus Initiative taken by the secretary general You would have been involved closely with him and and with with with that effort How do you assess the success of that a couple of months after the the stg's summit? Very very good. Well, uh first on governance Obviously, you know one of the problems that we have had In raising the quotas of the imf that is finally I I I understand it will happen Yes And in the capitalization of the banks is because that will be done You will have to make a realignment with the new realities and it will give china A much greater role in the imf and the world bank still the west will maintain You know most The the the lead in the voting in the voting But China will raise a lot because you know the the participation the quota of china is A really very small with respect to the participation of china in the global economy So that that has been a geopolitical point that has You know, we have been a challenge and obstacle to do the The real realignment and the capitalization of the world bank and in the imf The imf has postponed the discussion on on realignment to 2025 And and here between us is probably because it will be after the elections in the u.s. Yes Nothing will happen before that and In the world bank, they are going through some models for Of guarantees for the private sector To not have to go to capitalization but to give More capacity To the world bank to really bring in a private investment Those are second bests Yes But at least there are steps in the right direction And so in that sense, I think that we have been able to push the agenda Yes, the the g20 has been also an important fora For that and we have been I think an important voice Some of that now Also in terms of governance is not only china Many of the countries that became that are today in the world were not independent when we When we structured the system Yes, so the representation is very small in the breton woods institutions And and in the security council. They are obviously not not represented. Yes so a There has to be a more inclusive governance structure that Has to be discussed for the future for these countries to be better represented Anyway, they are For example, Ida has a different configuration even within the world bank So that is welcome. So some of that can be a bridging You know in some of the funds a bridging way For a full governance restructuring Now this is a very important element of the summit of the future that the secretary general is Putting forward and the international financial architecture reform That will be discussed In next year in in july Yes, so we are preparing for that discussion and governance will be an important element of this A with respect to the sdg stimulus The important thing that happened in september With the sdg summit Is that the sdg stimulus is in the declaration And that is a recognition that the un has a role to play And I think that that was the most important thing One of the most important things that happened in the in the sdg summit The acknowledgement that this is not An external issue to the un that the voice of the un and more diversity of voices should be Listen to When it comes to financial The financial aspects of the sdgs and I think that the sdg stimulus is very concrete It has very concrete measures and we will continue to push for it the Increasing the quota The quotas of the imf. I think that is part of it You know, it was one of the things that we said from from the beginning. We're still Fighting to take Away the sur charges in interest rates for the for the countries that are over quota in and for More more space for liquidity support To the country. So liquidity problems don't become debt problems. Yes The the difficult part is still the debt for structure You know the agreement to go towards a more effective And Stable system is not there and probably that will be a big part of the discussion going forward Thank you very much. That's a question here about the the cop 28 summit How do you react to the progress made so far, but are you expecting a breakthrough? Over the next couple of days on the issue of fossil fuels That's A very difficult I I made that You know, I I gave an interview in CNN arabia And I was asked this question that why are fossil fuels and I said, you know, you have to face out you know the new investments and the The financing of new investments in fossil fuels because if not And it won't happen, you know, and And That was a discussion with somebody that was in the panel precisely About that it continues to be a very contagious element. Yes But let me say I think that the loss and damage agreement Gave hope to the cope to the cop and the the Even if it's not all what is needed, but it was an important pledge, you know towards loss and damage And the the agreement the interim agreement that it will be hosted in the world bank is I think that a good decision Maybe the one the decision that is still pending is the governance Yes, how the governance of the fund will be carried out Hello Yes, yeah Yes, oh My my screen went okay. Sorry so that's that um That the niche still there are elements that still need to be To be worked out, but it was a good a good thing a I I haven't followed in the last three days the negotiation so But the secretary general is already there. He was very strong on the fossil fuel issue I don't think that It will go into the declaration. It didn't seem so some some days ago a with the strength that the was a wanted But there will be a white coalition. I think What now is being called luri national? Yes, that I think that will go ahead with that A from the numbers I have David. Maybe it's important to say this A part of the problem is that the financing is coming from the north still The financing for the new fossil fuel investments So even if it doesn't go into the cop 28 declaration The thing is how to stop the flow of financing resources for the new investments in fossil fuels And maybe that is a conversation that we need to have Indeed yeah um Rebecca and I think we've time for two more questions though. In fact, there are plenty more one one could ask One one relates to How you see the black sea deal on grain exports? What are the chances of getting back to getting that restored in the way it should be happening? I know that you you played a key role there And then a final question if you if we have time would be simply to look at the multiplicity of conflicts that we have at present. I mean clearly Gaza most of all, but Ukraine Ethiopia, Indonesia the question asked is What kind of impact will this global instability have on trade flows on the kind of uh, you know, the trade and development Nexus that you're trying to promote in untat. I mean How worried do we need to be about the the the rising number of conflicts which inevitably undermine the cooperation you need for trade with respect to bsgi to the black sea grain initiative. Yes Well, I it's important to to maybe Repeat what happened during the year that it was on First of all, it was a miracle that we we could make this deal in the middle of the war Yes, and and really the initiative of the secretary general You know and and the idea of these two agreements, you know the memorandum of understanding between russia and the un To facilitate exports of food and fertilizer from the russian federation And the corridor in the black sea For ukraine to be able to export and it really stabilized markets, you know Prices went down 23 percent during that period 23 percent and if if the world bank is right for every one percent in the global food index of f a o And each one percent increase means 10 million people going in below the poverty line Okay, so 23 percent of decrease in prices is a big thing for 200 million people in the world. Yes that so so and also the volatility of markets, you know stopped and My you know countries and markets had the possibility to adapt to the new situation. So When russia withdrew in july Prices didn't spike Again, there were fluctuations But the trend of prices was going down because on the one hand russia has a very good harvest And they are 20 percent of the market of wheat. Yeah, so They are very important And they have a wonderful harvest. So the markets have factored that in Secondly, ukraine is exporting through the corridor via bulgaria and romanian International waters. Yes. And so ukraine has been able to restart Exports and stabilize a little bit that corridor also and There have been very good harvest in europe so markets are In the aggregate Okay, we are still worried about distribution and effects Because the transaction costs Continue to be very high for some small and medium-sized countries Insurance shipping distances have also got longer despite all this. Yes, and so As I say again, as I said in the debt issue, you know, the aggregate markets are okay, you know, but the Clients are not the same And so big countries are taking a huge advantage of this situation, but the small and medium-sized countries have more difficulty and difficulty in food and difficulty in fertilizers So part in in some parts we are already seeing the consequences of The lack of access to fertilizers at the beginning of last year, especially in west africa And also the other thing that happened is that even if international prices went down A domestic prices went up because of the valuation of currencies we had A lot of devaluation of currencies because of the hike In interest rates of the central banks in the u.s. And in europe and uk So the devaluation of currencies made internal prices You know go up And that has caused Huge problems in many countries including some of the ones that have been mentioned Ethiopia, for example, Egypt, you know in Ethiopia prices went at one point prices of food went at 180 So this is a Desistabilizing factor that we still have to put attention to now Where are we? Where are we in the negotiations? That's a difficult question to ask to to answer but i will say what i can say Okay First of all we continue in contact and in consultations with the with the russian federation and with ukraine But it is clear that we are not going back to the former deal But because that is already Have has been overcome in terms of the functionality that it had Is what we are trying is to secure trade in the black sea Because what we don't want is the disruption of trade in the black sea Because that will again if the aggression in the black sea It will will escalate an escalation in the black sea is very dangerous. It's a huge risk And so what we are trying is to get the formula that will guarantee Safe trade in the black sea And if we can do that that will be a huge contribution for stability in the future It will yeah Yeah, actually the the the russian federation is coming for consultations now In the 14th of this week Yeah And with respect to um What we can do in the multiplicity of what was the last question It was I mean we're perhaps a little bit over time now vega, but that was it was really a question just Given all the global instability Because of the various conflicts What sort of impact will that have on trade levels trade? stability Yeah, well, well, you know that today there is Uh news from bloomberg that says and I read global trade to drop five percent This year amid your political headwinds And so obviously also the the the war in gaza is say is not helping as I I said before and Ukraine russia Continues There is there are geopolitical tensions in other parts of you said What we are trying to do and maybe let me answer in this sense You know, we put together for the ukrainian russia negotiations and Especially the impact we put together the global crisis response group And we conform in antar a group to look Beyond the very immediate impact in the countries of prices or of conflict to look at the global economy And more on the socioeconomic impact That's what we did very Effectively, you know in the global crisis response group and we changed the narrative We said look you are not looking at what is happening in the rest of the world that is also suffering because of the war Not only the surroundings. Yes, but there was a global economy that was suffering and I think that we did that very effectively and we are planning to continue supporting you know, the The secret the secretariat and the secretary general in trying to You know be a bow, you know ahead the curve In terms of very immediately try to see where the hot spots The problems from the different crises Are coming in In a crisis mode not in a only a Research mode And I I hope that we can continue providing that to the world into the u.m I think that it was very important, you know with the We have proven the concept and now we need to work on it to meet, you know, brother than only the ukraine Exactly. Exactly. Rebecca. Thank you very very much for giving so generously of your time and giving us your Analysis and some some really Challenging thoughts, especially around what globalization should should mean. It was really fantastic having with us I know I speak on behalf of the institute and also of the the whole audience In thanking warning for making this time available I'm sure I speak on Michael's behalf as well. It was great great to see you We look forward to seeing you at some point in Ireland We will follow up on that in the meantime best of luck with everything you're doing in all those in all those areas And thank you once again for for being with us now Thank you very much