 Before I start, I'd actually like to acknowledge an anniversary. Graham Peart, who's sitting at the back of this room, has been coming to the A-Bears Outlook Conference for 45 years. Graham is a stalwart in the Australian wool industry, and he has participated in this conference not just as a delegate, but also as a speaker. So, on behalf of A-Bears, a bear hyphened BRS, a bear, and a former BAE, I'd like to extend my appreciation to Graham for all his dedication over these years. Now, on with the show. Since I stood here last year, I have been reflecting on some of the changes that have happened in the market, and what I could say this year that would be distinct from last year. And usually that's not a challenging task, but this year it was, because the changes that have taken place in the market actually haven't been, at least in the economic drivers, haven't been all that different this year than last year. So, almost because of that, I've decided to be a bit more introspective. And what I'd like to do today is not just to review the past year, but to go a bit further back than that, to really highlight how the industry has responded to some significant changes in the market over the past seven or eight years. The industry has moved away from one which produced wool and had much less emphasis on meat production, to one which is now positioning itself to effectively deliver to two sources of demand from one animal. The decisions that producers have made over the past decade, the investments in their business, in their flock management, in their breeding strategies are increasingly done with a more sophisticated understanding of the markets, and how they're changing not just this year and over the next five years, but over the much longer term, particularly as we talk about the increasing demand for protein. To that end, business models are moving increasingly away from a wool or meat framework towards one that is really in the business of producing wool and meat and where the quality of both is equally important. And from what I observe, I sense that we're still really in the transition process. That doesn't mean there aren't specialists for both wool and meat, but certainly there is a greater focus to the production of both products. So I will review some of the economic factors that are common to both industries today, and then I'll discuss a bit about where we've been and why we've come from there and where we're going over the next five years. This slide on the economic drivers is actually just taken from last year. There was no reason to really change it because the factors are the same. Demand is favorable for both sheet meat and wool going forward. We've got world economic growth, and I'll be touching on that in more detail in a minute. And that assists with demand for both lamb and for wool in principal markets. Our exchange rate going forward is expected to average less than 75 cents over the next five years, compared with 96 cents on average over the past five years. That makes Australian commodities relatively less expensive on the world market and more competitive. One of the downside risks that we identify relates to wool and its competitiveness with synthetic fibres. Given that synthetics are made from petroleum products, and therefore fibre prices really move with crude oil prices. And if crude oil prices are assumed to stay low over the medium term, that could put some downward pressure on the average price of wool, but particularly for medium micron wools that are more substitutable with synthetics. On the supply side, between 2012 and 2014, we had some pretty dry and difficult conditions in eastern Australia, which resulted in high turnoff and a contraction in the national flock. Last year it was comparatively better when the rains came, and there was some renewed optimism and some stronger restocker demand, which put upward pressure on prices. This year we basically had a repetition in the cycle. We had dry conditions between July and December, and so high turnoff once again. And then the very good rains in January and February again saw restocker demand, and so prices were elevated. So even though some of these market drivers are identical to last year, it's really been a matter of degree. Prices this year are higher than last year, and that's because the Australian dollar is lower, and so that's making our goods more competitive on the world market, and our supplies are lower. So that's also a positive influence on prices. So let me touch briefly on how economic growth in a few important consuming countries is expected to influence demand. As was mentioned by Karen yesterday, world economic growth is expected to average about three and a half percent over the next five years. There are some more specific and positive elements to that forecast that relate to the sheep industry. Growth in apparel consuming countries, namely the USA and Europe, is occurring. Europe has been particularly slow to recover since 2012, despite our assumptions to the contrary over the past few years, but this year growth is about one and a half percent, and we've actually seen some strengthening in imports of apparel by Europe. Over the outlook period we're expecting growth to be about one and a half percent, and we're hoping and assuming that that too will have a positive influence on apparel demand. Economic growth in the United States has strengthened over the past few years, and is expected to average about two and a half percent over the next five years. That too will assist discretionary purchases on items such as apparel, but also on lamb. Now lamb is very much a niche product in the United States, but the United States is our highest export market by value. So strengthening demand for that product will have a positive influence or effect on Australian exporters. China is a major consuming country of raw wool. It is also a major consumer of apparel. Growth has eased over the past five years, and this year is expected to average about six and a half percent, and coming down to about six percent over the outlook period. Despite that bit of reduction in growth, it will remain our largest export market. Exports to sheep meat to China have also been on the rise over the past few years. We're facing increasing competition with New Zealand in that market. New Zealand now faces a zero percent tariff on sheep meat starting this year because of the FTA that they negotiated with China back in 2008. On the other hand, production in New Zealand is expected to contract this year and over the next couple of years, which could mean some strengthening of demand for Australian sheep meat from China. So the influence of economic growth is not to be taken for granted, and we're expecting that influence to be positive over the next few years. But if we could look back a few years, we could see how the sheep industry has responded to the changing nature of demand over this past period as well. In about 2007 when I came into ABERS as the wool analyst, the price of wool was very low, and there were discussions at industry meetings that I was attending about where the industry was going. And people would half jokingly just sort of draw downward lines and say it's finished, it's done. We should all get out of it, go into meat. But it wasn't done, and it's not done. And the reason is because it was never really a matter of whether there would be a market. It was more a matter of what the market would be. And it didn't take long for prices to recover here at home because of a contraction in production here but also in our competitive markets, which put upward pressure on prices. The thing is about a year to a year and a half earlier than that, prices for lamb and sheep meat had begun to rise because of strong influence coming out of the Middle East. And there were no projections at that time that that source of demand would ease. And so it was roughly at that period that there were more and more discussions about whether to produce meat or wool, and increasingly we started talking about whether the composition of the breeding flock was changing or how it was changing. Certainly some people did exit the industry, some people did go entirely to meat, but the uptake of that option wasn't as big as somehow hypothesized. It would be given the strength of the price signals coming from the meat side of things. And that was because of the management options available to producers. Options that made them more adaptable, more responsive and more resilient, not just to whatever mother nature was chucking at us, but also to the changes that were happening in both markets. So that's where we saw this ongoing shift in the focus among many in the sheep industry who were seeing where the future was going in terms of where protein demand was concerned, who started to invest more time and more effort to get the most out of their flocks in terms of genetics, to increase marking rates, to increase carcass weights, and to get the best margin they could out of their wool clip. And Jason and Andrew will be speaking to that issue after me. As we look forward for wool, the Eastern Market Indicator price of wool is forecast to be about 13 percent higher this year and another 5 percent higher next year, landing at about 1,300 cents a kilogram clean. That's supported by the assumed lower Australian dollar and a forecast full on wool production. And it will also be supported by that strengthening apparel consumption in the U.S. and Europe. Turning to the meat side of things, in about 2012-13 we did see a bit of a lull in prices, but since that time the trajectory for prices has just been upward. And that is because of the strong demand really offset the very high turnoff and lamb slaughter that we saw that was stemming from very dry conditions. And really, as I said last year, it's unusual to have such high supply on the market while prices continue to go up. The opposite effect should have been happening. And that's why I asked rhetorically where to from here. We really thought turnoff would have eased to allow the flock to recover in earnest. And I'll touch on the flock issue in a moment. This year we're expecting lamb slaughter again to be very high at about 21 million head. And that's because of the dry conditions that hit between July and December last year. Prices are again expected to be higher. The price for sheep and lambs are expected to be between 6% and 10% higher over the next two years. As an assumed improvement in seasonal conditions should support continued flock rebuilding and therefore lower sheep slaughter and higher lamb retention rates. That will have a dampening effect on the volume of our exports. Over the medium term we expect real prices to ease slightly but to still say relatively high given our strength of demand. Now touching on the national flock. This is the most boring slide I have. This is also the slide that inspired this presentation because as I looked at this slide I said there's really not much there. Well, I know that the flock's been decreasing from about the 1990s onwards. We all know that. But for the past seven or eight years the flock's been wavering between 70 and 77 million. Despite the record high slaughter rates that we've seen for four consecutive years. One of the reasons why the flock hasn't taken as such a strong hit as it should have is because of the investment that I've been speaking about and on that emphasis over this period that has not just been put on flock rebuilding but on the improved lifetime U management to build a more productive flock. Given the cost to producers of restocking getting the best quality lambs out of the U has been on the forefront of producers operating strategies. And because of this we've been able to maintain the flock at about 70 million head. Indeed that's where we're expecting the flock to land by June 30th this year gradually increasing over the medium term to about 77 million head at the end of this next five years. But that's where I wanted to pose more of a philosophical question. I want to ask is this the new equilibrium flock size for Australia given what we're seeing on the meat side and given that there aren't any strong signals on the wool side for any significant strengthening or weakening of demand there. And we have to acknowledge that even with our forecast for flock rebuilding the pace of flock rebuilding will continue to be tempered not just by seasonal conditions but on this ongoing level of high prices available now to producers. So given our forecast for the flock I'll go back to wool production because wool production pretty much tracks along with the flock size given the very modest changes that we see in the composition of the flock or have seen over the past seven or eight years. Shorn wool production is expected to be about 7% lower this year given the lower number of sheep shorn and next year and over the medium term it should increase gradually as the flock increases and it's a similar story for total wool exports. The volume of total wool exports is also expected to be lower but what is very different is what we're expecting from export returns. We're expecting the value of total wool exports to be 9% higher this year and to be higher every year for the next three or four years. Those returns to producers are being supported by the lower supply of wool available for export as well as the lower Australian dollar as well as that assumed strengthening. I mean this is at the margins but that is a very real thing that assumes strengthening of demand on world markets for apparel. So in conclusion the outlook is quite favorable for the sheep industry over the next five years and providing mother nature cooperates and given the lower availability of sheep meat and wool combined with strong export demand and the lower Australian dollars that will keep upward pressure on prices. Even as the flock expands prices are forecast to remain relatively high and it is these sustained market signals that will continue to provide incentives to producers to invest in their operations, to get the most they can out of every animal whether it be for wool or for meat or both to meet the demands of our consumers around the world and here at home and of course to maximize their returns. Thank you very much.