 is we are with tim or today tim can you hear me i hear again how are you doing me on you do all right hello you know that i'm doing fine i uh... i'm here so perfect yeah it's crack into this i was taking a look at some of the charts on the break and i'm i'm really looking forward uh... to hear you have to say about these so uh... right and we can start on chart one uh... we presented this in the past is actually one of the reasons why uh... i got along whenever i was buried i think it was back in april or may uh... uh... this indicator where uh... would get giving up on but i actually tell you what it is it's basically the middle window is the uh... bb ix which is a big for the back and the flash of the ix which is the back with the fear index and it indicated about leading indicator give you good clues uh... what the market's going to do it is show the best at around reversal in the market both up and down and uh... i pointed out previous times chart goes back quite a way uh... bring back to uh... mid-tooth or about two thousand eighteen and when the s&p goes up a lot of times this indicator starts going down warning that at the top is not too uh... too far off and they are you outline those in red arrows uh... where they occurred and right now uh... we've been going down here or actually testing the uh... what uh... late september early october lows right now and uh... market rallying up a little bit here but i want to point out on the right side of the chart is a blown up of what's going on uh... actually uh... if you put the page two it kind of gives you a better view of it uh... chapter two or a better chart to rather unconfirmed on page two uh... to show you what happened at the last high of uh... july this uh... july with market was going up to indicate it was going down now we got something the opposite we got the market for a pretty much going down making lower-lows while this indicator uh... so far is making higher-lows it gives you a warning of uh... advanced warning it doesn't say that the bottoms and but that's safe they're approaching the bottom uh... so it uh... and then this chart uh... see what goes back to what uh... march there if you look at the mark flow that blue box uh... the market was making lower-lows this indicator went sideways uh... began in the uh... july july high uh... you know the sb for going up this was going down so now we got back to the blue box again we got a positive divergence so uh... there's something developing here pretty uh... pretty close uh... you know maybe this week maybe next week but what i'm really uh... looking for is on the chart three so we we got a uh... of divergent a bullish diverges in the vb i expect ratio but you need really a lot uh... and actually that indicator is a pure indicator is reason why i can only that way here only happens at bottom to panic only happens at bottom top to look a little bit more difficult but uh... this indicator is another pure indicator which is a ten-day arms which is second window up from the bottom when it's indicated it's around point two or higher you you you got panic in the market and a lot of times approaching a lower at the low we had that first uh... the first low we had back in uh... late september or october that's the shaded pink areas but times when that the trend is up uh... of one point two or higher we had that back in uh... that september uh... early october low and right now i got uh... uh... kind of a blue shaded area says that work we're coming right point nine one which is not bullish at all uh... so that tells me the markets that we know that though we're testing the previous loads here we don't have enough panic panic rates energy and we don't have enough energy to really pop off this low yet so but you do have a bullish divergence on the vb ix of x ratio but not a panic in the markets according to trend reading to just that for the load began right now so uh... maybe we're going a little faster but at flip to chart four right here okay but chart four uh... okay i wrote uh... uh... the blue lettering is is limited that trend reach panic levels and it and uh... the tick reach parallel uh... panic levels and i record all those panic levels uh... what day they occurred there and back at the uh... late september early october low we had panic in the trend to take the i got a label there market rallyed up we didn't get go uh... didn't get we didn't have enough strength continue strength actually go higher so we're coming back down retesting the lows well the market was down five days over and a row going into monday the markets down five days this is a quantitative analysis but the markets down five days in a row the market will be lower uh... within five days a three percent of time and that's just a case back about i think it's five or ten years and we got how it was is it quite a bit specific studies done on this so even though we had a low we bounced up that's not the final low so i'm thinking we're going to go back down and test the recent low we had here on monday if not break a little bit and the bottom window is a ten-day trend well the ten-day trend need to get up around one point two or higher so i'm thinking what's going to happen here as uh... the markets will fall back down uh... if it's not this week probably next week and probably going to create a lot of panic and takes a trend that's going to push the trend up to one point two or higher and i'll be the signal finally uh... to get going to the upside you know that's a lot if answer but but if you look at today's volume right now we got rich and no one going on this rally that's kind of a clue that then have enough strength to get going to the upside so we're going to fall back how much we're going to fall back i don't know usually when you you're afraid to make it pull the trigger on a trade it's usually the best trade you make and uh... uh... so i'm i'm thinking for this week out relate this week early next week we're probably going to fall back and it's going to be all the bad news about something else you know we got some wars going on to be bad news about that not sure what the trigger is going to be but it's always seems to be some sort of news announcement at the lows and that's when the trend really pops up you know me you may see a one point five maybe two or three trend on the clothes and i'll be my trigger if that happens uh... uh... probably end up with a bi-signal but i think we're close to a low according to the bv i expect ratio but we need to attend a trend to pop up there to one point two if that happens uh... then i'm probably back on a bi-signal right on yeah just waiting for that juice to uh... to get back up there good stuff will tell you about please stay tuned we still have some charts to go over we're really enjoying it so uh... folks will be right back uh... with tim ord welcome back folks this is jacob shoup with tim ord of the ord oracle tim are you still with us i sure am i'm right here awesome so i think we were just looking at uh... the tata uh... ten day trend relation to the spy chart four so what else are we looking at today uh... do you have any any questions about the first four charts or if not we can move on no yeah i i think i was explained very well i'm ready to move on for it right uh... school to chart five perfect looking at gdx here yes the gdx chart there is this one gdx is kind of like a different animal compared to the s and p s and p's kind of work off of uh... panic and euphora type indicators and uh... or gdx uh... i mean if you get panic and gdx it it could still move lower and i never really found a good indicator to really signal a bottom far as uh... panic indicators so i kind of went a different direction over the years that the figure out what works best and what seems to work best is the uh... up down volume of that client type indicators so kind of major internal strength or weaknesses uh... that that gdx has and i did a chart uh... chart number five when it goes back about uh... over a about a year or whatever and the blue areas or times uh... actually tell you what uh... bottom two indicators are the bottom indicator is the eighteen-day average up down boy or uh... is that the yeah it's the up down volume advanced uh... uh... uh... is the eighteen-day average of the up down volume and next window higher is the eighteen-day average of advanced decline so when uh... when these two indicators are above minus ten and that's when i shared in blue the markets in an uptrend when these two indicators are below minus ten markets in the downtrend so over the last uh... basically year it shows the times of his uptrends and downtrend and both of these indicators work pretty well defining divergence in other words when the S&P's is making lower lows and those two indicators are making higher lows uh... if you look at the uh... bottom back in march you know the mark uh... gdx has fallen down made a lower low and both of those indicators made higher lows that circled in red and going into a top of uh... was about april may there uh... gdx is making higher highs and both of the indicators make a lower highs so let's get over to what we are at the current time frame which is basically starts in about september the market uh... i was pretty bullish in august and market still fell back but both of the indicators made uh... circled in red and i noticed uh... noted with the red arrows that the market was making both indicators are making higher highs in higher lows but gdx is pretty much working a little bit lower low and that's in the past is a bullish divergence but mark still went down i think it's just kind of a shakeout type decline both indicators as we're talking uh... made this early in the day as long as they both above remain above minus ten the uptrend intact and so far there's no divergent sex were if you look on the gdx chart we're pretty much matching the previous highs uh... we had in the uh... september period there up around that thirty range and both indicators are still making higher highs and uh... on both those indicators so that's a positive urgent so even though we were retrace your mind uh... minorly uh... we uh... at the moment i don't see any top if both of the indicators were actually falling back approaching minus ten i'd be a little bit more worried that so far that's not happening so even our short term basis we've got a minor consolidation but this consolidation is probably might be a half-way point the next move up the reason why i say that we get to put the chart number six all right and so uh... the previous chart was a daily chart that kind of looked at the short term moves uh... and uh... this chart it's uh... look at the bigger moves it's a weekly chart and this chart goes back to uh... actually beginning of two thousand twenty two so it's uh... one you know you're close to two years or whatever and uh... the bottom window is the uh... cumulative uh... the weekly advanced decline and the next window up is a cumulative up down volume indicators and uh... tried working on this for a while but there's something there can never figure out why until i uh... put bolinger bands to it and uh... what seems to really work well when both of the indicators close above the mid-bolinger band it's a little bit late uh... on the buy a little bit late on the sell but it gets you in the main trend that's why i was kind of looking for in the weekly time frames because i got shorter term indicators that worked pretty well getting in the short term time but you don't know if you're catching a big trend or not it may be just a short-term trend the market may fall back again well this catches the trend you know most of these times when the uh... signal is generated they're usually generated anywhere from two to six months trends and if you notice to do the right here we closed above the mid-bolinger band of both indicators last week the market went up for three weeks before that triggered that indicator but since now we're above both mid-bolinger bands yes at least we've got two months to go here on this rally and possibly six months which is basically next would we'd be march april time frame don't know how far that's out but it's a multi it's usually a multi-month indicator uh... so we got something on a bigger time frame at least so far uh... uh... it's a signal here so uh... how big the rise as long as both of those indicators remain above their mid-bolinger bands you go on for a while matter of fact the last time they gave a sell was back in april of this year that's the last red line and it hasn't turned bullish in just until now so april until october was that uh... six months so it declined for six months cut that six-month decline and now it may catch up you know a six-month or i don't know at least two months advanced so our short-term basis chart the previous chart looks bullish or a mid-term basis uh... the bigger trend looks bullish so how high is high we'll have to wait and see so right and i want to ask you on your work oh sorry i want go ahead tim i'm sorry nope i'm i'm i'm done i was going to ask on chart five i i like this look at it you know you close your approach this kind of ten line here right that obviously more nervous you should get on a trend reversal is there you know obviously we're gonna have a little dip right here based on this chart right how many consecutive days i guess of approaching this this ten line here would make you nervous is that does that question make sense of the minus ten line you mean yes yes all right well we're a long ways from it i guess yeah and normally a lot of times that not always but a lot of times that uh... yet so far market to the uptown volume and crime indicators are not uh... falling back i mean they're holding pretty steady at the recent high so you're not seen a a pullback yes that tells me that we're probably even though the market fell back here gdx's fell back or both of those indicators are not falling back showing strength but they just start approach minus ten chances are if they're approaching minus ten they're going to go through minus ten right on happen here so uh... i'm thinking you could actually buy here i think you'd be okay awesome thank you so much for joining us guys that is tim or of the or oracle or hyphen oracle dot com tim thank you so much for joining us right thank you everyone right have a great yesterday ten by now folks stay tuned we'll be right back