 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Just six games across major league baseball for tonight and despite that I do still feel like there are some pretty fun options for betting got two money lines I like and two strikeout props as well Both are under which is not as fun But I still think good edges to be had across the board here What we'll do for today is break down those bets outline where I'm seeing value based on the odds over at Fandall sports But to get you ready to win some money for a Monday night. Hopefully we'll see over at Fandall sports book Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim sauna. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire here to take a look at tonight's and they'll be betting Slate breakdown where my numbers are seeing value for today We'll get that all here in just one second a first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast you can find us on Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcast wherever you get your podcast you can find us also up over on the Fandall YouTube page And of course as mentioned on the Fandall TV plus app You can get that on Amazon fire TV or Apple TV or on your Roku as well to get us alongside The solo shot up in Adams run it back and all the the wonderful Fandall TV shows all over on the Fandall TV Plus app so go get that on those platforms or check us out on the Fandall YouTube page or the number for the covering the spread of podcast V baseball season is in full swing And there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandall America's number one sportsbook because right now new customers Get a no sweat first bed up to $1,000 That's up to $1,000 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win So don't miss your chance to snag a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 when you join Fandall today Fandall official partner of Major League Baseball Major League Baseball trademarks used with permission It must be 21 plus and presidents elect states first online a real money wager only $10 deposit required Refund issued is non withdrawal bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restrictions apply see full terms at fandall.com a sports book Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem Call 1-800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step protects next step to five three three four two in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ECPG dot org slash chat in Indiana 1-800-9 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1-800-522-4700 or in Kansas KS gambling health comm Louisiana's 1-877-770 stop in Massachusetts gambling helpline ma.org or call you 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Maryland MD gambling health org in in New York 1-877-789 open wire text open why and in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Now as mentioned for today, we do have two money lines and two strikeout props I am eyeing over at Fandall sports books Let's dive into those now starting off with the money lines The first one is in a game that is questionable if it'll play actually both of the money lines or in games questionable to play for tonight, but I do like the Baltimore Orioles minus 1 36 Taking on the Cincinnati Reds and this one breaks my heart because I have been on the Reds a lot recently They have been the best team to me in terms of betting recently So it is tough to bet against my darlings here for tonight but I think the market is finally catching up to them and Potentially still a bit too low on the Baltimore Orioles team that has also been very good to me so far this year The big reason why I show value in the Orioles here is I'm skeptical of the red starter Brandon Williamson Williamson The results have been okay thus far. They've not been hideous by any means But his expected era is six point seven two thanks in large part to a forty seven point five percent hard hit rate allowed That is a tough number So you could look at the opposing side and say Cole Irvin's expected era is also around eight or so I think it's actually above eight, but Irvin has been getting more strikeouts letting up less our contact So I believe he is more likely to Progress as a year goes along then Williamson is based on each guy's respective Numbers to stabilize more quickly. That's why I lean towards the Orioles here Looking at this one the Orioles are a team that he left. He's really well And they're adding up prospect Jordan Westberg today Westberg is a guy who had 16 home runs in triple A was willing to steal bases not a super low strikeout guy Which means he could struggle for some contact in the majors, but he's been really good Now you're adding him to a team that does have some key lefties So I think even they've been good against lefties so far this year adding another right-handed bat to this lineup is Probably going to be a net positive for them in the long run So to me that actually does help a decent amount Irvin again better strikeout rate better hard hit rate makes me feel better about his improvement as year goes along So my model puts the Orioles win odds above 60% the implied odds here are 57.6% so a good little cushion there the one thing I would say as far as this bet goes is there is a chance the Market continues to move towards Cincinnati if you're watching here on YouTube or a fandal TV plus You can see that a lot of the bets on this game have come on the red side of things We saw the Orioles I think they were minus 140 last night now down to minus 136 and I think they were minus 142 at fan duel this morning as well So there has been some movement towards the reds again because they've earned that by how well they played here recently But I do think the Orioles are the right side of this game right now So personally, I'm okay taking it right now minus 136 plugging in the Orioles there because I do show quite a bit of value But it is worth mentioning this number could move against us So typically I get concerned when the market moves against me because it means smart people people with money are Putting on the money on the opposing side of me That's always a concern you never want really to bet against the market here. I'm kind of acknowledging that would likely happen I think that there is a decent chance that it moves to you get a better number than minus 136 later on But to me it's a value regardless So if you open up your app and see it's minus 130 for the Orioles I wouldn't view that as a huge red flag personally. I think they're the right side of this game So to me the Orioles are the right side against the red today taking their money line at minus 136 As mentioned the second money line for today It's also in a game that could potentially be threatened by weather. That is the Brewers at the Mets now like the underdog here I like the Brewers at plus 152 at Fandals sportsbook and how you view this game really depends on Whether you believe that Justin Verlander has turned a corner Because he's had some really impressive starts recently and a lot of those impressive starts have come at home He's at home for today and facing a Brewers offense. That is struggling it still I just don't think Verlander is quite as good as the result would say in those home games specifically Verlander's hard hit rate is 44.3 percent this year and That's a concerning number even you're facing a team like the Brewers that is not the world's most powerful team Even if we zero in on just the home games so the games or Verlander's looked really good overall this year His strikeout rate 22.7 percent is 20.5 percent overall So what that tells you is even if we expect a spike in strikeouts at home He's still going to let up a lot of balls and play and when your hard hit rate is 44 percent That can be a pretty big issue So Verlander has a 4.5 oh era I think that is pretty accurate based on the way he's pitched so far this year is skill interactive ER It's 4.32. It's expected the array is a bit better But to me I feel like the hard hit rate concerns are pretty realistic So even though the Mets are the they have the better starting pitching here with Verlander facing Cullen Ray They've got the better offense as well My model does still put the Brewers and win odds at 43.7 percent versus their implied odds at 39.7 percent so the Mets the better team even on a neutral field But I don't think the gap is as big as the market implies here the Brewers defense has been fantastic That can help make up for some of the issues with the starting pitching Their bullpen has been just fine this year whereas in passers. It's been elite. So to me I think the market is a bit overvaluing the Mets here. So to me. I do like the Brewers plus 152 I think that that money line is a good value for today So I will take that the two money lines for today if Andrew's sports book that I do like are gonna be the Orioles money line minus 136 and the Mets money line or the Brewers money line at plus 152 as far as strikeout props go I like a couple and both them happen to be in the same game now we talk a lot about this a lot where I'm not huge into my criteria for betting a same game parlay is I need each leg individually to be profitable and I want there to be some sort of tie-in where they're at least not working against each other and Taking two strikeout unders. There's really no tie there I was I expected to be like a super high scoring game. Maybe that's the case in Texas for the Rangers and Tigers, but to me that's not really why I'm here So I want to take both these bets individually and take Matt Boyd under five and at strikeouts minus 128 and Andrew Heaney Under six net strikeouts at minus 112 Let's talk about the void half year first void has gone over this number and three of his past four starts and form his past six starts So that may make you unwilling to lay minus 128 on an under going against what he's done here recently But this matchup stinks against the Rangers the Rangers have a 136 WRC plus against lefties they strike out just 20 percent of the time So there are low strikeout offense that punishes lefties when they faced Boyd in Detroit back on May 29th They drew four walks in that game. They scored five runs and six innings and Boyd went under by a half strikeout So in that game, they did very well against him. That was in Detroit now They get to see him again this time in Arlington Those factors all do lead me to think they could potentially have sex success here once again Boyd Pitch count also has not been super big He's failed to hit 90 pitches in all but one of his past nine starts So to me that means Boyd has to pass under the first one is pitch count where he doesn't get a huge leash again And doesn't go super deep in the game second one is the Rangers knock him around and chase him early both those I think are Advantages for us. So to me to pass to an under I think that's enough where I can lay minus 128 Despite the fact Boyd has been going over this number pretty regularly here recently So Matt Boyd under five and at strikeouts minus 128 the first one over at Fandall Sportsbook Again on the opposing side Andrew Heeney's strikeout prop is six and a half minus 112 on the under and I want that one as well and Heeney I think in the past we'd be looking at six and a half and being like we'd be drooling because He's always been a high strikeout guy It seems like Heeney's changed his approach this year potentially because he realized that the high strikeout approach was not working Letting up way too much our contact way too many home runs and it made it where it wasn't really a tenable approach anymore So he's made some shifts and been more of a low strikeout guy this year We have seen Heeney go back more towards this slider recently and crosses past seven starts But even in the seven starts specifically Heeney's strikeout rate is twenty four point five percent That is an okay number definitely, but it's not going to get you to over six and a half strikeouts super super often The Tigers are not a good offense against lefties by any means But they're also much better against lefties than they are against righties and they're also a low strikeout team They've got a twenty one percent strikeout rate against lefties on the current active roster Heeney has failed to hit the over here in six consecutive games He's gone over six and a half strikeouts and just three out of fourteen overall this year So to me this says this number is based on historic Heeney versus current day Heeney Who is tailoring his approach to be a bit less chaotic, which has been beneficial for the most part So i'd expect that approach to continue So to me taking the under on six and a half strikeouts. I think it's the right way to play this one So i'm going to take both unders here again going with them individually versus tying them together because there's no Real tie between the two of them, especially with the roof closed in Earrington first night given there's rain in the area so I think to me you bet you place them individually hope both of them wind up hitting but um I think it's a definitely a net where I want to place this individually as opposed to tying them together So strikeout props matt boyd under five and a half minus 128 and your Heeney Under six and a half minus 112 to go with the money lines with the Brewers plus 152 and the Orioles at minus 136 That's all that we have here as far as the actual recommended bets for today We do got to go back through last week and recap the recommendations here from last week on the show starting things off With some golf brandon gandulo is on to talk the travelers championship and brandon had a good week once again Keegan bradley was the winner in pretty dominant fashion and bradley was not one of brandon's Outrights he had conmore cow of 25 to 1 Tony fina 35 to 1 and sung jm 50 to 1 But brandon did have keegan in a group bet keegan bradley was 200 or plus 200 against uh, gary woodland austin ekrote and lewdvege burgen ekrote played pretty well at times, uh, but keegan was on and he won this event 200 not as gonna You're gonna be as good as an outright obviously, but still a good payout for a group bet So good call by brandon there also won another group bet That was ricky fowler at plus 240 over matt Fitzpatrick Windham clark and c. Woo kim fowler finished 13th in this one Other group that was tom kim plus 220 that would not hit but hitting fowler plus 240 bradley at plus 200 both those pretty good and brandon was also on brian harmon top 20 at plus 320 and harmon actually finished tied for second So comfortable easy win there and another great week overall by brandon I think that it's not just the fact that the bets won but also He was on the right guys guys who showed a lot of upside for this week So, you know, it wasn't a harmon top five. It was not a bradley outright It was not the highest upside markets we could have gotten but he was on those guys they flashed that upside I think that means the process was correct. So good calls by brandon all those Hopefully we're able to follow along with him there and getting those on yourself yourself as well As far as NASCAR goes I had I had like a close week in a lot of regards But a frustrating week where we were just away from having a really nice week The one bet for cup was not close. That was ryan blaney 10 to 1 to win Blaney was fine during the race. I think that he had like an eighth place car So which is okay, you know, maybe if there were a lot of chaos he could have benefited But that was not the kind of race we had Blaney though got put in the back on a restart after there was a caution in the middle of green flag pit stops And there was a pile up in front of him. He got punted from behind no one's fault Just kind of a stack up on a restart hit the whole wall really hard I was kind of worried he might be banged up, but he talked to the reporters after the race. So Looks like he's okay But obviously no in there at blaney 10 to 1 as far as the truck series go I had three top five bets there The first was grant and finger top five plus 150 chase perty plus 650 jake garcia plus 750 Both perty and garcia shortened a lot perty closed at plus 550 from 650 and garcia plus 575 From plus 750 and perty did come close. He finished sixth. So One spot out and finger mediocre the entire race garcia ran the back half of top 10 So Close on perty a plus 650 but couldn't quite get one more spot up So no cash in that one in the Xfinity series the top five bets were austin hillow plus 150 Chandler smith at plus 350 and daniel hemmrich at plus 750 hill one cash So that's good. Uh plus 150 will take that for sure Hedner finished eighth no dice there was running top five at one point But you know just kind of daniel hemmrich kind of night But chandler smith was fast in practice qualified seconds and he closed I believe at plus 225 for a top five down from plus 350 I actually showed value on him or on uh chandler smith to win So I'd taken him at 28 to 1 and 18 to 1 And he was running out front for a lot of this race He led 74 laps fighting for the lead with his teammate age elmending or late But smith spun in a late restart and overtime pushed him way back so he finished 12th But I think it was a good handicap on chandler smith. I was happy to get the hill cash But I feel like the thought process of being high on smith given that he I think call it Call it was a bit undervalued which proved to be true with his teammate winning I think the thought process of smith running well on concrete in the truck series panned out as well So again, I like the process with him didn't quite pan out. So frustrating week could have been a lot better, but Still feel okay about the the way the reasoning behind the bets even if the results were not quite there Hopefully Brandon's bets and golf made up for the ones in nascar from me That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread If you want some daily fantasy top, we'll have that over on the solo shot later on today That's on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed later on this week talking to brandon gaduola to talk about some golf We'll have some more baseball talk coming up F1 is back this week as well along with nascar in chicago at the street core So plenty of good stuff coming make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread on the covering the spread podcast feed Or the fandal youtube page or your fandal tv plus app if you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across mlb for tonight And we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to talk some golf with brandon gaduola This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network