 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The Denver Nuggets heading to the NBA finals thanks to their sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers and tonight We find out whether the Miami Heat can join them via sweep of their home It is game number four here between the heat and the Celtics were in a preview that game and get you said for this week's Charles Schwab Challenge by talking to Brandon Gadoula welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunders. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Join here as mentioned by Brandon Gadoula check about on Twitter at Gadoula 13 You can find his work over at number fire calm Brandon the nuggets into the NBA finals via sweep of the Lakers But game four on tap for the heat and the Celtics for tonight. How are you doing today? I'm good a little disappointed with The state of the NBA conference finals It's always fun to get some game six game seven action in there But I guess it's also equally interesting in a different way for these series to be just so one-sided That being said at least the Lakers were showing some signs of life Don't really see it with the Celtics so much So that's something we'll dig into here in a second But yeah, I'm kind of like in a strange mood where The basketball has been still good in it But in a different way than like a back-and-forth who's gonna take control of the series because two teams took control of the series Right away and did not relinquish that. Yeah, you said, you know, you'd like to see a game six or a game seven I'd settle for a game five honestly, which we might not get across either of these series So hopefully we can see what goes down for tonight We'll break it down Celtics heat and as mentioned talked about some golf this week as well in just a second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast See wherever you get your podcast big week here for the show tomorrow and talk some NHL with Tom Vecchia We'll also talk a recap of Celtics versus heat on Thursday We're talking Indy 500 Monica Grand Prix and coke 600 with Dr. Nick Giffen of the action network getting his read on all those By talking to him and of course a baseball UFC everything all in the same feed as well get that by subscribing to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast or check us out over on the Fandall YouTube page If you like what you hear leave us a thumbs up on YouTube or leave us a five-star rating over on Apple podcasts The NBA playoffs are still going here for at least now We'll see but you can get on the action right now at Fandall sportsbook right now All customers get a no sweat same-game parlay every weekend when you bet the NBA playoffs That's right. Just place a three-plus leg same-game parlay or same-game parlay plus on any NBA playoff game You'll get bonus bets back if you don't win There's no better place to bet all the playoff action than America's number one sportsbook head to the Fandall app And get a no sweat same-game parlay every weekend of the NBA playoffs Fandall official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC Bonus issued is now on the trial of bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash rg in Massachusetts Hope is here gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in New York 1 8 7 7 8 hope and wire text open Y in Arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 7 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.com access chat in Indiana 1 809 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 105 2 2 4700 or in Kansas KS gambling health comm in Louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Maryland and the gambling health organ in West Virginia Go to 1 800 gambler net now We're gonna talk about game four specifically for the heat and the Celtics here in just one second the heat are one half point favorites in This game at the end of sports book Brandon I want to start things off by talking about the heat here because they've exceeded expectations the entire playoffs covering a lot of spreads and winning games where they were big underdogs outright Have you considered just making the playoffs to be their most relevant sample within your modeling system? Or is that asking for a letdown in an overreaction to you when they have beat the doors off of some very good teams? Well, let me first just say that the heat are like you said playing extremely well and playing above expectation and Whenever like bam out of bio says in a post game press conference that Or you know an on-court interview or whatever it was or whoever it is They're all saying basically same thing where like, you know people didn't really believe in the heat to this point Every like it feels like almost every every team every athlete has that mentality But I think it actually applies for the heat. Yeah, so these other teams and players like take note of what it actually means to be a Little bit eight point underdog game one. You can call yourself an underdog. That's okay. That's very fair Yeah, I know some other teams in recent memory felt like they were completely slighted as They may as well have been destined for the number one pick based on how they they perceived it I mean three experts pick the charges to win the AFC West. So the chiefs were we're doubted, you know I mean whatever whatever takes but I mean in the same breath like this is an actual sort of Underdog story as far as professional sports go. But yeah, I mean to answer your question the The playoffs have basically just been without Tyler hero. He played like 19 20 minutes in that first game of the playoffs before being out so You know, the sample that I've basically been using for the heat is, you know, looking at their games with Jimmy baller BAM at a bio and Kevin love and if you throw Kevin love into the equation, it's basically their games Since like late February if you take Tyler hero off the floor It's a lot of the playoffs With some some of the regular season thrown in without hero on the court to make that sample bigger But as far as the postseason itself goes, they're up to Almost 1400 possessions as a team, you know in the postseason alone And you know, that's that's more than fine for a sample If you want to go that route and look just at the postseason, but you'll see some, you know, I Like a bigger sample, but yeah, you know The the research that I've seen has said that around 500 possessions has been things start to stabilize a bit. We're well past that I like to go as long as I can while keeping it within reason and keeping it something that that is, you know Relevant, that's why you know, the relevant part here is you don't look at the heat full season Right may not want to look at their super hot shooting and just in the playoffs So for me and find that middle ground with with Kevin love Also in the lineup and Kevin love, you know, his his health is noteworthy for this game because he came up Slow in game three, but they've been about two and a half points different without Kevin love if I maintain the Jimmy Butler bam out of bio are also active, you know in that split But you know, he's expected to play he's probable tonight according to the injury report. So You know to sum all that up I think you could probably get by with using just the playoffs for these teams at this point because they're so deep into the playoffs So the possession count is higher for me. I'm not quite going that way because they're shooting has been You know pretty substantial Their net ratings about five points better just in the playoffs without hero and with love and Jimmy and BAM That it is if I factor in that the end of that regular season. So either way, they're a good team They're a lot better obviously with just the playoffs split, but I Think I'll get into what that actually means for the game itself here You know when we get to that So let's talk about game number four or four tonight between the Celtics and the heat right now The spread is one map in favor of the heat here at Fandall Sportsbook total 216.5 so the heat going for the sweep here when you look at those numbers you were discussing Do they view this spread as being pretty efficient? What's your read on game four between Celtics and heat? Yeah, so if I use that sample that I mentioned with Kevin love Jimmy and BAM no Tyler hero including the regular season the spread I have here is heat by one and a half perfect, so That's tough if I use just the playoffs the play, you know talking about playoff Jimmy. I use just playoff heat That goes up to six and a half in favor of the heat because a lot of that has to do with home court advantage as well In the playoffs, but I like to go at that larger sample stay away from the spread but if you think that you know The heat are just a brand new team right now that Kevin loves gonna be fine You play his usual Usual rotation his usual minutes. I wouldn't fault anyone Forgoing with the heat here But the thing that I can't model for and the thing that's really you know hard with this game is the Celtics interest They they look awful. Their body language is awful. I just like They sat their starters at the end of game three. They're they just look like defeated Which seems like Jimmy Butler in the heat have just like Reached into them and taken out whatever competitive edge that they that they had to get them There and you know, I talked earlier in the postseason a little bit throughout the postseason is like, you know I model a lot of sports, but basketball is the sport that I both model and have like the most experience playing. Yeah So like there's just not a whole lot from the Celtics that is Really motivating me to want to bet in their favor at least the Lakers where like again, we're more competitive I had them with 0.9 expected wins entering their game for for the Celtics It's about 0.6, which is a pretty big gap and the Lakers actually had an expected win Percentage for me of like 55% for game four. She haven't really seen a whole lot from the Celtics now a lot of that has to do With their shooting and that's leading into my favorite angle for this game is on the total And so, you know, I can't back the Celtics, but I do I do like the over You know, we don't get a whole lot of game fours with the home team in position to sweep because that means the underdog is you know Doing some stuff, but it's really not that uncommon historically to see a lot of points in these types of situations The heat kind of have a bad reputation Offensively like long-term and again, I think that there's a lot of overreaction to Tyler heroes impact on their offense so I think that we're gonna see the heat try to put the pedal down and Frankly, the Celtics can't shoot much worse than they have been On wide-open threes for the Celtics in the regular season They were fourth in the NBA in three-point percentage at 41.2% Versus the Hawks, they were even better than that at 45.4% That tumbled down toward like the league average even a little bit lower Against the Sixers 36.8% and we saw this offensive struggle start to start to trickle in and now they're down to 32.6% Again, this is on wide-open threes Teams like to talk about defending the three-point arc The way you defend a three-point arc is to limit three-point attempts Just because the heat or sorry just because the Celtics are shooting under 33% on wide-open threes does not mean That the heat are doing a good job Against the three-pointer on those shots. They they're not really controlling them. The Celtics are just bricking everything And again, like the league worst number on wide-open threes for the regular season was 34.7% by the Rockets and The Celtics in this series are 32.6% so There's only room to grow The heat are kind of flowing offensively. This is not necessarily like a grind it out You know sort of series right now the heat are willing to run. They're looking to run get those get those lobs up to bam Jimmy's, you know They're we're not just seeing everything come down to one second on the shot clock and frankly, I don't see The heat just slowing it down. I think they want to you know make a statement here and keep pushing the ball So I see a lot of points in this game Relative to that 216 and a half over under so I'm going with the over I think you could probably talk yourself into taking the heat money line But you know Again the Celtics have to be a bit better offensively here and that's enough for me to just focus on the over and your spread of one and a half accounts for Expected regression or positive regression on the Celtics shooting perspective, correct? It's like that's baked into the number on that on the spread perspective Yeah, because what that's doing is taking the long-term approach of how good a team has been And again one of the fears of playoff stuff is certain teams shoot a bit hotter a little bit colder That kind of stuff does does throw a wrench into the data. So yeah Because my the long-term numbers again Celtics are a great three-point shooting team. They're horrible right now So you don't want to just look at you know points per game in this series that kind of thing You want to kind of have a longer term? View that still makes sense and if you can have that similar like why I'm using the regular season stuff with Kevin Love it's more possessions Not just looking at when Caleb Martin looks like you know Michael Jordan out there making every shot he takes That's you know the long-term sample is going to be a little bit more indicative of what the heat should do. So yeah That that regression is naturally baked in whenever you use a larger sample Okay So the spread appears pretty efficient here at one and a half points Brandon does like the over 216 and a half which is minus 110 right now over at Fandall sportsbook We'll see if the Celtics can drag this series out a little bit longer Maybe even have some fun and make this series competitive. We'll see on the golf side of things Let's talk about the Charles Schwab challenge. They are a colonial country club before this week a place We know plenty about because they've been here I think it's like the longest-running event at a single course potentially. I might have made that up who could say anyway One of them. It's up one of them. Okay. What are some keys to this course? We should know before placing our bets for this week. Yeah, so it's a it's a It's got tight fairways Small greens and winning scores are usually just over Like 10 under par so like in the 12 under range is usually where we see a winner It's about average length over offer a par 70 on the PGA tour the the greens are bent grass They're they run a bit faster like a 13 on the stint meter And as far as like fuel strength goes we have three of the world's top 10 10 of the top 25 in action So not a bad field by any means, but it's not a designated event. It's not a major And we see kind of all types of winners at this event Because distance is not a must so that means like yeah It's a it's a it's like a bit top heavy again not like a designated event sort of top heavy and obviously we have a one one singular heavy favorite, but You know the past winners in the field or Sam Burns Justin Rose Kevin Kisner Jordan speed Chris Kirk Zach Johnson twice and Rory Sabatini way back in 2007 but it's kind of a mixed bag of guys. None of those are particularly long off the tee aside from like Sam Burns He's got some length to him, but you know, it's it's a it's a bit more wide open and that does change the way that we view Everyone in the field including Scotty Schaeffler who it feels like he's just gonna run away with it, but It's also not as simple as that in a week like this where it's hard a bit harder to run away with it whenever Someone like Kevin Kisner can compete Right and the question is is that fully accounted for the odds? Let's take a look at the odds board right now over at fangirl sports book. Scotty Schaeffler is a favorite He is four to one to win this event right now Jordan speed who has a good history at this course and seemed to get better as a Weekend went along this past week. He's 12-1 Victor Hauvin and Sony Fina 14-1 Let's talk about Schaeffler first You mentioned that a larger pool of golfers can realistically hang at this kind of course But it's also Scotty Schaeffler against a lot of not Scotty Schaefflers So is there value for you in Scotty Schaeffler at 4 to 1? I'm not quite You know, it's all so one thing I want to just flag before It goes overlooked is this is is a smaller field. It's not a full 156 golfer field It's like 120 there's been some withdrawals. I don't know You know if that really makes much of a difference because they're gonna round that out with with some other names But I know Keith Mitchell is out Taylor Montgomery who I think the ship has sailed on Taylor Montgomery unfortunately And Adam Svensson are kind of like the names that There are no longer in the field I mean, you know Keith Mitchell Schaeffler should be like to do it, right? Yeah. Yeah Keith I mean best best driver of the golf ball of all time basically Keith Mitchell, but so I have Schaeffler around plus 550 He was plus 490 at one point on Monday on Fandall Sportsbook. He's now 4 to 1 So I can't quite get there, but that being said he's just so good right now and that's the scary part and You know, we talk about it just because someone's a favorite or shorter than 10 to 1 does not mean they're a bad bet I don't really see the value on Schaeffler, but I Will say this he has been over the past 50 rounds According to data golf with their field strength adjustments He has been over a shot per round better than anyone else in the field That's wild Yeah, we know his T to green game is point not is it point nine basically point nine Shots per round better over the past 50 rounds than anyone else in the field So if he gives us one of those performances and starts making putts, which it felt like he started to do a bit Down the stretch at the PG championship Which is not indicative that he's turning things around his puddings puts from five to ten feet Which are you know if you had to pick one stat with putting to kind of really figure out where we're a stroke scanner coming from That's the one you'd want to look at You can't really nitpick Schaeffler From a course fit because he's played well here got the Texas angle But I don't see the value on him. So I'm not quite getting there with Schaeffler You said you have plus 560 on him Plus 550 plus 550 so the implied odds there about just about 15% and his betting odds right now at 20% Which means you're pretty close to implied odds for him Which means I wouldn't be super wary about other people in the field in regards to oh I'm super understilling Schaeffler. So it's hard to talk myself into someone else Why maybe showing value on I have that sometimes where I think maybe I'm undervaluing the favorites And I'll be wary of other guys, but I think for Schaeffler you do have the odds allocated to him pretty high So you look at other outrides in this field anybody else stand out to you being good values this week Um, sir, are you implying that I should be seeing value here? I mean, I'm saying that like I would not be skeptical if you did show value elsewhere because you are allocating a lot of win Win equity to Schaeffler even if you're not quite to where the betting markets have him. Gotcha. Well, unfortunately No, there's not a lot it's a lot of like justifiable bets so Finau Tony Finau at 14 to 1 I have met 15 to 1 Collin more cow is 16 to 1. I have him 19 to 1 Sung Jae am did shorten from 20 to 18. I have him at 20. So I liked him more He's like the name is among the the favorites that is still Sort of in the best range, but I would also be all right with max homa So like it's a lot of okay. The model itself does not show a lot of value. So do I just not bet anyone? shorter than 50 to 1 That's a question you got to have and I think that's personal preference um Because for me the model and you know, I could rerun these numbers and they'll be slightly different over 10 000 iterations And maybe someone just has like a better performance in that In those, you know, those 10 000 iterations of this event. So, you know, it's close, but It's not really a week where I'm seeing a lot of value at the top of the board if I had to pick one right now um That I feel best with it's Sung Jae am makes sense from a course fit standpoint very accurate off the tee Not as good of an iron player as he has been in his career You know, we thought whenever he came out he was going to be like Calling more a cow basically with his irons because he started off really hot, but He's fine. He's a good overall, you know golfer, but He's probably the best name that I see in terms of value among golfers shorter than Uh 55 to 1 and I can say that he is the best It's basically he and Fino or like They're close, but they're not values. So take take take that how you will right um That's just kind of what i'm seeing in the data There is a 20 still out there on Sung Jae. So if you can find that maybe that's a better, uh bet potentially for you Uh, what about the 50 to ones are longer? Anyone anyone you're actually willing to bet there or is it just spots where you're showing value? But don't actually want to take it because I I have that plenty of times Yeah, so it's not you know, usually I see that on guys. We're like 350 to one. It's like a shred of value and it's like Well, no, I'm not I'm not going like I'm not not gonna get there But at 55 to 1 we have denny mccarthy I have his odds at 50 to 1 We know he's a great, uh, he's got a great short game Accurate off the tee sort of gets you know hurt a lot at these events where distance Is a bit of a must mccarthy About four yards shorter on average Then the average like rolled average golfer in terms of distance off the tee According to data golf, but a great great putter So he's the kind of golfer who gets a benefit Uh from a course setup such as this one Um and then brendan todd as well 90 to 1 even more accurate, uh than mccarthy better short game, but a worse ball striker And then andrew putnam Was 150 he is now 100 to 1 his iron play has been pretty phenomenal over the past three starts for him his driver is Usually what holds him back? But specifically with distance He's losing almost 12 12 yards per drive to the field average according to data golf But is gaining you know about seven percentage points of Of fairways on his drive. So to put some easier context into that He's 15th in accuracy and 112th in distance again out of you know, like 120 golfers in the field Um with really good iron play He's got three top top 20s At colonial in his past five years. I think he has five total starts and other two are missed cuts at this course. So putnam I think deserves some attention For this week and you know, I think this is probably just shaping up to be a week where I got to wait and see if Anyone lengths and lengthens at the top that I can jump back on but for now kind of just having some smaller unit allocations on Um mccarthy todd and putnam for now. Is there a preference for you between those three? um Probably mccarthy, okay That's still a really good return and he's just a better golfer than the others I want you should like i'm assigning you work. Um, I'm sure you're thrilled about this But you should like run a correlation to see like when denny mccarthy does well How is his performance tied to brennan todd because I feel like those two Of all the golfers in the field would have like the highest correlation between like when they spike versus when they lag compared to the field Those two like always are tied at the hip. It seems like I think I think other places do that kind of stuff to try to figure out Yeah, um, those you know to answer those questions, but It is a lot of work. Maybe I'll uh, maybe I'll get to it, but I mean you have nothing else in your plate I think we also know That it's true whenever If it's a brennan todd week, it's denny mccarthy week and it's uh, like an angri putnam week These guys really good short games, but just short off the tee So mccarthy brennan's favorite one there 55 to him But also some interest in todd at 90 to 1 and mander putnam Despite his shorting to 100 to 1 any non-outrites you like this week the menu pretty limited at fandall for this week Uh, it looks like just round leaders up as of now Yeah, just the first round leaders are up. I would you know, usually You know, it's not just a okay. You like someone is a long shot that i'm top 10 top 20 I think the odds are good enough for for mccarthy todd and putnam that I would Be interested in Sure at least top 20s if not top 10s for them, but two first round leaders do stand out to me Russell hamley at 45 to 1 He is the most accurate. Let me get this right most accurate golfer Off the tee in the field over the past 50 rounds according to data golf and he's ninth in stroke skiing t-degree So it's obviously the putter that is the one thing that is lacking there But you know first round leader if the putter gets hot or if he just does you know hits Almost every fairway almost every green. That's a really good profile and I do see slight value for him in my first round leader model um For this week and then jj spawn 80 to 1 first round leader He's 18th in the field over the past 50 rounds in strokes can't eat a green also 18th in accuracy Another name that popped with some value as first round leaders go For the week in that specific model Okay, so those numbers again, uh jj spawn 80 to 1 Russell hamley 45 to 1 to be the first round leader for the charles schwaub challenge That is all that we have here for today On covering the spread talking game for between the Celtics and the heat and talking about the charles schwaub challenge Brandon thank you as always for your insights. I appreciate them as always and we'll talk to you once again next week Probably previewing maybe not to you know, maybe we'll all here. I'll like I'll I'll get the Celtics with disrespect Maybe talking to heat nuggets nba finals next week and talking some golf too Maybe yeah, it's going to be uh, it's going to be an interesting game tonight going to be a pretty pretty interesting golf event this week with a lot of names in play, um and You know going to be tied to a lot of long shots, so it's going to be one of them weeks What could go wrong? Alrighty check out Brandon on twitter. I could do a 13 and find his work Over at numberfire.com. I'm on twitter at gymsonus and j i m S a n n e s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets for tonight in game four for Celtics heat And for the charles schwaub challenge. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow for some nhl discussion This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network