 This is the SF Productions podcast network It's the seventh annual Oscar prediction show with your host anyone anyone Bueller from the pop culture bunker. I'm Mindy and I'm mark you can check out our audio podcast how I got my way to read Comics on iTunes more on our website SF podcast network calm It's that time again Oscar predictions this year's telecast will supposedly be shorter and snappier, but I'm not holding my breath We'll see how they deal with the no-host controversy We're seeing various rumors slash announcements after someone complains on Twitter They get rescinded plans to only play some of the nominated songs got scuttled after Lin-Manuel Miranda threatened a boycott Plans to end the tradition of having the previous winner of an acting category announced the new winner were dropped after Alice and Janney complained our prediction system first don't see any of the nominated films Second see who won the awards leading up to the Oscar and who has the most buzz and if there are any controversies now our Oscar rules If you died you're in biopics rule portraying an illness works well multiple moms without a win helps We'll list the previous Oscar record where applicable with nominations and wins as well as the odds as of February 7th based on an average of five betting sites via nicer odds dot co dot uk and we're gonna start with Supporting actor Maharsha Ali for a green book two nominations one win one to one odds They won the Golden Globe Critics Choice and SAG Awards Adam driver for black clansmen who has one nomination in zero wins and 30 to one odds Sam Elliott for a star is born one nomination zero wins 13 to one odds Richard E Grant for can you ever forgive me one nom zero wins and six to one odds He won the New York Critics Choice Award Sam Rockwell for vice two nominations one win 33 to one I picked Maharsha Ali as I did as well. Why? Because he's already won once they he won several awards already and the and the Academy is really trying to be politically correct well, I think I think it's maybe less that the Academy is trying to be politically correct and that they've Expanded their voter rolls that's true, you know, so so there's more people of Color voting and there's more younger people voting and so we may see a change to some of those Oscar rules. We will see Supporting actress we have Amy Adams for vice who has six nominations and no wins and three point one to one odds Marina de to Vera for Roma with one nomination zero wins 30 to one odds Regina King for if Beale Street could talk with one nomination zero wins 1.4 to one odds won the Golden Globe Critics Choice and the New York Critics Choice Awards Emma Stone for the favorite three nominations zero wins 17.5 to one odds Rachel Weiss for the favorite also with two nominations and one win 11 to one odds by the way Emily Blunt won the SAG award I picked Regina King as did I You know, I wouldn't be surprised if One of the people from the favorite would win if only one of them was nominated. Yes, I think they cut each other out Yes, no question in my mind. Yeah Feature the Incredibles to 9.5 to one odds Isle of Dogs 9.5 to one odds Mariah 30.30 to one odds and Ralph breaks the internet 27.5 to one odds Spider-man into the spider-verse 1.1 to one odds won the Golden Globe the Critics Choice the Producer's Guild and New York's Critics Choice Awards And so our pick is Spider-man into the spider-verse. Yeah, it's pretty much a Forgone conclusion. Yeah original song all the stars from Black Panther 8.5 to one odds all fight from RBG 21 to one odds the place where lost things go from Mary Poppins returns 21 to one odds Shallow from a star is born 1.05 to one odds won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Awards When a cowboy trades his spurs for wings from the Ballot of Buster Scruggs 36.5 to one odds Well, we need five I guess We both picked shallow. Yes because there was all this buzz for a star is born, but I think that Throne song yeah, exactly for that because you know, yeah, I'm not gonna vote for anything else, right Director Alfonso Carone for Roma with ten nominations two wins 1.05 to one odds This one the Golden Globe the Critics Choice the New York's Critics Choice and the Directors Guild Awards Your ghost Lanthimos for the favorite three nominations zero wins 35 to one odds Spike Lee for Blacks Clansman six gnomes and one win which was an honorary Oscar 10.5 to one odds Adam McKay for vice five nominations one win 36 to one odds Pavel Pavelowski for Cold War. He's got one nomination zero wins and 30 to one odds And so I'm picking Alfonso Carone. You're going with the standard backup thing, right? Yeah, and there's so many he won so many awards and yeah, I'm going for Spike Lee. Okay I think Spike Lee is gonna win this year. Yeah And I will explain why when we get to best picture. Okay They'll go on to actor then with Christian Bale for vice four nominations one win three to one odds He won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Awards Bradley Cooper for a star is born with seven nominations and zero wins 15 to one odds Willem Dafoe for at Eternity's Gate four nominations zero wins 46 to one odds Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody one nomination zero wins 1.3 to one odds won the Golden Globe and the SAG Awards Vigo Mortensen for Green Book three nominations zero wins 31 to one odds and Ethan Hawke won the New York's Critics Choice Awards, but was not nominated here, right? And we're both going with Christian Bale. Yeah Yeah, I think that's pretty much a no-brainer the gaining weight kind of thing right. Yeah, the Academy loves that Actress Yelizia Apriorio for Roma, I butchered that one nomination zero wins 35.33.5 to one odds Glenn Close for the wife seven noms zero wins 1.1 to 1 odds won the Golden Globe the Critics Choice and the SAG Awards Olivia Coleman for the favorite one nomination zero wins 5.7 to one odds she won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Awards Lady Gaga for a star is born one nomination zero wins 11.5 to one won the Critics Choice Awards Melissa McCarthy for can you ever forgive me? Which may be the alternate choice for that terrible? Yes evil Muppet movie She made yeah, two nominations zero wins 38.5 to one odds Yes Regina Hall won the New York's Critics Choice Awards, and we're both picking Glenn close Glenn close. This is like more of a legacy kind of thing I think on a rary lifetime achievement award Yeah, maybe not her best role, but she's lost out on ones where she probably should have won Yeah, and the Academy is like okay. We really need to give her one. Yeah, maybe she'll never have another good role Yeah Which takes us to best picture black Panther 21.5 to one odds It did win the SAG award like clansmen 19 to one odds bohemian rhapsody at 27.5 to one odds and won the Golden Globe the favorite 8.5 to one odds Green Book 4.6 to one odds won the Golden Globe and the producers Guild Awards and Roma 1.5 to one odds won the Critics Choice and the New York's Critics Choice Awards A star is born 26.5 to one odds vice a long shot at 76 to one If Bill Street could talk won the prestigious Central Ohio Film Critics Choice Award I'm going out on a limb and saying that blacks clansmen is going to win and I'm going with Green Book Kind of the juxtaposition Talking about Spike Lee lost for his first movie do the right thing to driving Miss Daisy Now you're saying he's going to lose to like the opposite of driving The bizarro driving Miss Daisy I just completely discounted Green Book. I don't think it did well enough overall. Okay, but um and a lot of people were picking Roma Yes, but do you know that a foreign language film has never won best picture, right? And I think they're gonna go because clearly if you're in best picture and you're a foreign film by definition And you're the only foreign film in the nominee by definition. You have to win foreign film, right? So so I think they're gonna go you won foreign film. You're good But I but I think because Spike Lee is nominated in both the director category in this category And I'm not sure that the director for Green Book was nominated I don't believe he was so I think that because of that we're gonna see that Because normally they go together best director right, but not always but not always but more often than not they do Yes, so I'm going with black clansmen. We'll see who yeah who? Persevere yeah, I'm going with the safe this the safer choice the one that more traditional Academy voters would go for But we will see and we will see who's right on that While we're waiting to find out you can check out our audio podcast how I got my wife to read comics on iTunes Or our website as a podcast network.com from the pop culture bunker. I'm Mindy and I'm Mark. Thanks for watching