 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network With all the tourney talk, we haven't had a ton of time to break down basketball break down hockey I guess professional basketball should say but we are changing that today. There is a 12 game banger in the NHL So we're gonna break down that and the NBA slate with Tom Vecchio getting his read on player props and much more across Fandall sportsbook for tonight This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio Check him out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom He could find his work over at number fire calm and his NBA DFS podcast of daily I so over on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Tom It is a glorious time of year NBA NHL He knew for the playoffs and they'll be opening day one week from today that both makes me excited and frightens How you doing today? I'm doing great. Yeah, this is arguably one of the best times in the calendar to be a sports fan You know playoffs right around the corner for NBA NHL. This is a prime time for the end of the regular season I'm super excited for baseball to start and obviously March Madness happening, you know on the weekends. It's great You've also got Quinnipiac in the college hockey tournament beginning this weekend. So, right? You're gonna be busy. This is this is fun. Yeah, hopefully they can actually Not go 0-1-2 and national championship games actually can make it there and win it for once that'd be great I mean that sounds like a plan, you know They stuck all the Minnesota teams in the same region So I've got not a ton to root for Northwestern doesn't have a D1 team So like, you know, I'm gonna go all in on the Tom the Tom Express here So we're rooting for you Quinnipiac. My neighbor has a Quinnipiac sticker on their car. So we're all in Quinnipiac You're rooting for them. I have to have some rooting interest here across the next couple of weeks I can also have rooting interest in my bets for tonight We're gonna break down both the NBA and NHL with Tom getting his read on those here in just one second But first if you were looking for some of that previously alluded to sweet 16 coverage for men's college basketball Both our Thursday and Friday previews are now up on the covering the spread podcast heat and the fandal YouTube page Dr. Ed Feng joined me for the Thursday games We had John Rothstein and CBS sports on for the Friday games both those are now up talking spreads futures markets, etc Etc. 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So as we get closer to playoffs, how does your approach to betting switch within those markets? Well for any shell, there's there's really not too much of a change You know, it's not like we're gonna see a star player go from playing 20 You know 19 20 21 minutes all of a sudden playing 10 like that just doesn't happen Could he go from 21 to 17? Sure That is largely dependent on a blowout in either direction They're just gonna give the third and fourth line a little bit more time So any chance not really a factor for the NBA. I do think it actually can be Very very impactful and it can also lead to a lot of profitability So one of the main areas that I focus on would be teams in playoff races and the star players So let's just say a star player averages, you know 30 34 35 minutes a night Like this is not the time for coaches to be messing with the rotations Like all this needs to be figured out at this point So instead of playing 34 minutes, they have to tighten that rotation And maybe that just means like 37 38 minutes, which doesn't seem like a whole lot But if you're like on a PR a bet or points plus rebounds or whatever it might be like an extra four minutes is Like can be really huge especially in you know, like especially the star player like he's the main guy Like he's the high usage player. So NBA teams that are in tight playoff races Their star players it should lean towards overs if they're gonna be playing just a few more minutes And then conversely on the other side teams that are completely out of the playoff races This is the time of the year where we're gonna start to see a lot of bench players get a lot of run They're gonna call up players from the G League and they're gonna sign these players to 10-day contracts Which means they're just gonna be limiting minutes overall because they know like, you know The spurs the Rockets the Hornets they kind of know what they have from some of their main guys So they might as well give some run to some players that they may want to have like moving forward It's the next few years. So it could lead to unders on star players on quote-unquote bad teams Are you also looking towards overs on like developmental guys at that point or is that more of a guessing game that you want to dive into at that point? It I wouldn't but it's it's very depend on whether those lines are offered or not because I could say from like a Projection standpoint like well, this player is actually gonna be in line for 15 minutes tonight because I know they're not gonna be Playing the star player, but his lines might not simply be offered because he could play 15 minutes He'd play five give like 25 and then maybe you get him the next game, but it might not be initially Yeah, so typically we're looking at minutes looking at roles looking at matchups But this time of year looking at playoff implications to to know how much we should how much confidence We should have in those minutes projections for these guys in these roles. Let's start things off in the NBA Tom it is a four game slate for tonight in the NBA starting with the traditional markets Anything you like there for tonight? I do. I like the Knicks minus three tonight in a bounce back spot This money line has moved a little bit. I saw it at minus 152 10 minutes ago before hopped on it's at minus 166 Clear bounce back spot for the Knicks. They've lost two in a row. They did lose last time against Miami They lost a couple days ago against the Timberwolves when Julius Randall at 57 points The Knicks should be beating the Orlando Magic. This is again a very clear spot for them to bounce back the magic Yeah, they have some good young players, but they're rotating in a lot of different guys I'm There's nothing else to say other than the Knicks are the better team here And this is a very very clear spot for them to not be on a three game losing streak As you mentioned that money line has shifted to minus 166 right now. The spread is still minus three It's minus 112 there. How? How long would you be comfortable going with that like if it's three and a half four? Are you still okay with that or is that where it starts to be a stay away for you? I wouldn't go past four if it's three three and a half four is fine, but that's probably the line for me I really don't like they are on the back-to-back as I mentioned they lost to Miami last night So it's not really a huge travel situation Miami, Orlando And I really don't expect them to be resting any players like this like you would say early in the season if this was December Maybe Jalen Brunson or Randall or RJ Barrett would sit out just because okay like there's a back-to-back They could sit but say hey They can't be on a three game losing streak at this point in the season when they and lose to the magic like that's not It's not something that should be happening. Okay, so Tom likes the Knicks minus three that is minus 112 right now Against the magic. What about player props? What do you see there for tonight Tom? One would be Randall in this game Julius Randall over 26 and a half points as I mentioned he had 57 a couple days ago against the Timberwolves Rough shooting night for him last night All things considered. It's a tough matchup going up against the Miami Heat. They play super slow They're a good defensive team No match up against Bama to bio in certain circumstances who's a very good defensive player is not easy for Randall And it was reflected last night Again bounce back spot against the magic. They are not necessarily a good defensive team as you would assume and 26 and a half at minus 104. I think is a good spot for Randall. His points plus rebounds bet is okay I saw it at suppose at 30 34 and a half minus 113 is the over there minus 113 on the under as well, right? You know I'd be okay with that He hasn't been rebounding the ball a ton lately like in that game against Minnesota You're 57 points in like two rebounds or something my granted. He's scoring all the points But right it's I don't love that line if it was at 33 I would actually be interested maybe 32 with some juice. I'd be actually be okay with it But 34 is pretty online. So I'd rather just stay away. Yeah again the points number Just the raw points by themselves 26 and a half for Randall minus 104 on the over there Anything else you like in the NBA for tonight Tom? I do. I like the Clippers under tonight. They are playing the okc Thunder 232 and a half seems a bit too high especially Because the Clippers gonna be without Paul George for a couple weeks some of that knee injury the other night the Clippers for their home Home over under the season are nine and 27. That's the worst mark in the league in terms of overs when a team is at home I expect the Clippers, you know, they gotta try and slow things down control the game Especially after losing Paul George like they shouldn't be looking to push things too much So yeah, this could be a spot for no theoretically look to Kauai props But I'd rather just stay away from that and go strictly with the under tonight Yeah, the total there 232 and a half minus 110 on the under for the Clippers and the Thunder And this is a spot where you mentioned Paul George's out But also these games matter quite a bit for the Clippers because in the West they are Dangerously close. I mean everyone's dangerously close in the West at this point But dangerously close to the play in tournaments stuff like that. So does that Alter your enthusiasm in terms of the player props knowing it's a convergence of a big playoff playoff Ask atmosphere with a key piece missing in this game Yeah, so I spoke about Kauai on the daily ISO for from a fancy perspective I think he's in a great spot like everything I mentioned like he's seeing a ton of minutes They have to consolidate the usage. He should be out there. This ain't like these are borderline must win games Yeah, because they're like they're one or two losses away from dropping into the play-in Yeah, and because Paul George that that usage should be shifting to Kauai So if everything is going to be you know consolidated, this is the spot that yes I like him from a fancy perspective But I also expect them to play things very straight forward Which means their style of basketball, which is slow good on defense being efficient from the field rather than being explosive And that does correlate well at the under here again 232 and a half at minus 110 for the Clippers and the Thunder ready to shift focus and talk some NHL Tom Yeah, let's do it. Alrighty, let's shift over to the NHL as mentioned It is a whopper of a 12 game slate for tonight in the NHL Let's start things off though the pair of games that'll be on ESPN in case people want to watch those We have got the Wild and the Flyers at 630 actually interesting and then also the Penguins and the Stars looking at those two games Specifically Tom anything you like in those I do I like the Wild and the Flyers under five and a half. This is Obviously, it's a shorter line five and a half most games are at six or six and a half Both teams not really good on offense where we see both teams in the bottom 12 of the league for the fewest goals scored per 60 minutes in five and five situations over the past month We also see the Wild as a very strong defensive team And yes, the Flyers aren't a good team overall, but they're actually pretty modest on defense and in terms of goal tending so I'm not expecting a ton of goals because the offenses are so bad And we actually have some decently strong deep or I'm say very strong defense and a decently kind of sneaky strong defense on the flyer side so I Expect the Flyers to win this game and it's probably gonna be a Rather uninteresting game to watch if I'm being completely honest now you mentioned that the total is low five and a half You are getting some leeway in there because the under is plus one of four With that Wild and Flyers total for that game other one has mentioned is the penguins and the stars anything you like in that one Or a pass for you that would be the stars in regulation a minus one ten the penguins are on the second I have a back-to-back they Surprisingly beat the avalanche last night that the penguins were riding a four game losing streak going into last night They have been struggling on defense their offense hasn't been scoring and now they're going up against The stars again second I have a back-to-back the stars are a solid offensive team a Solid defensive team. They've Jake should have Jake I'll enjoy a net tonight who is one of the better goaltenders in the league The stars are coming off of a loss. This is again very simple stuff We don't want to be taking these random shots You know of the stars puck line would not be a spot that I would like to go I'd rather just pick up the win in 60 minutes against the team that they are clearly better than Again that one is actually minus one of five now any concern for you that it's shifted a bit or will you take the extra? Flexibility there. I will I love that. I will take the stars at near even money Okay, so minus one of five again That's the 60 minute money line for the stars in that game against the penguins If you just click on the game scroll down to the 60 minute money line You can get the stars right there their regular money line if you just want to bet them to win overall Minus 156 right now over at Fan Duel sportsbook Tom. We have ten other games tonight in the NHL Lots to choose from what do you see in there starting on with the traditional markets Tampa Bay also the 60 minute line plus 100 against the Ottawa Senators another straightforward spot the The lightning have been really interesting this year where They have not been playing at the level that they were of the past few seasons Stanley Cup winning team all these sorts of things setting records where They've been good this year, but they've been pretty inconsistent as is shown by a two-game losing streak They lost two nights ago against the Montreal Canadians who are one of the worst teams in the league and now We get a chance to get them in a bounce back spot at even money when they should have Vasilevsky in night In nights in net tonight, which is obviously a good thing and their offense is slowly trending upward They've again been inconsistent with some of the players in and out of their lineups and you know A lot of people are saying that they're tired because they've been in only still in cup runs the past few seasons and all these extra games And I get that but like now is the time that we've actually seen them slowly training upward despite this inconsistency And it's a spot for them to break a two-game losing streak against a team They should not be losing against so that 60-minute money line is even money as you mentioned for the lightning to beat the senators Are you does the inconsistency the volatility in a team impact? which markets you want to bet them in because You've got the three-way money line here in the 60 minutes at even money You could go with their money line at minus 146, but does their volatility push you towards the more high upside market in the situation That's exactly it. Like I don't I if they're because they're so inconsistent I'm gonna take the spot where I'm gonna be getting the most upside and that's just that even money I don't want to be laying that kind of juice with the team. Like I said, they've been a little bit up and down Sure, I think that the training upward You know long term throughout the season But yes the up and down does not does not have me excited about minus 146 or wherever they're at Yeah, they are minus 146 in the traditional money line But the 60-minute money line even money for Tampa Bay against Ottawa. What else as far as traditional markets in the NHL? The jet wouldn't pick jets at Anaheim docks. It's one of the last games on the slate under six and a half Minus 1 30. I think it's still at the docks are not a good offensive team The jets are really really struggling on offense It is extremely noticeable that they simply cannot score the differential between their goals Actual goal scored and expected goal scores is actually very massive And the jets are still good on defense. They still kind of hell you buck in that who's probably going to be one of the Top finalists for the Vezna trophy, which is the goalie of the year award. He's not going to win it Lena Solmark from the Bruins is going to win that but hell you buck is still having an awesome season And now they're going up against one of the worst Offenses in the league Combined the fact that the jets simply cannot score. I guess that makes a couple jets teams that can't score But I digress Yeah, so the under six and a half despite it being minus 130 is still the the right spot to be on tonight Yeah, minus 130 that number. That's for the jets in the docks. Uh 10 p.m. Eastern game for tonight. Um Poor jets, you know, it happens. It happens for sure. Okay. Uh, what about player props in the NHL? Again, a lot of games to choose from what are your favorites here? starting off with the Vancouver Canucks hosting the San Jose Sharks the last game on the slate The Canucks best player Elias Pedersen over three and a half shots that's sitting at plus 108 The best player on their team top line center top power play unit the star excuse me not the stars the sharks Bottom half bottom 10 the league depending on where you look last month, you know Of course the regular season when it comes to Corsi against which are total shot attempts allowed Pedersen is on an awesome streak despite being on one of the worst teams in the league He has an awesome offensive streak right now. He's piling up points nearly every game Um Love this match up for them. I expect uh, as you can see the over six and a half with minus 140 on the over So this game is not expecting a whole lot of defense, which means plenty of shots back and forth Uh, again the number for Pedersen. This is in the Sharks versus Canucks game over three and a half It's plus 108 at Vanduul sportsbook I think that situation where you're going to look at the alt markets because you're already getting a pretty good number On the over there and expecting a lot of shot volume in a game of the high total stuff like that So I think that makes sense anything else as far as player props tonight Yeah, and I will say like it's very clear that that that six and a half is juiced heavily a minus 140 Which is a very clear indication of what we should be seeing right in that uh, the next market I want to look at is is the Uh, may believes visiting the Panthers Uh, so some of these goal props weren't up before they're they're up now And one of them would be William Nylander plus 160 for a goal. I think that line is a little bit long Uh, he hasn't we're guessing to be 140 before he came on the air. That's 160 sick So I was expecting to be it probably should be a little bit lower and he hasn't scored in four games five games Uh, he doesn't have any points. I should say no no goals or assist in this time But they still have a great offense and the Panthers also have an awesome offense where We see the Panthers get into these games where yeah, their defense is really inconsistent That's why they're like they're fighting for a wild card spot with Bob Rofsky their goal It can be super inconsistent, but they have Arguably one of the best offenses in the league. So they get into these games where yeah, they can fall behind Three one, but they have the offense to pick it up. So the other teams can't like sit back and play controlled style They have to match their pace Which gives us these games that are like seven to four or seven You know seven to three which just just has so much back and forth action So we look at nilander's number and because he's on the second forward line He's on the first power play his good shot volume And his number is a little bit longer than I'd like even if it doesn't hit tonight I still think it's like objectively a great value to be taking a shot on Because I expected to be much lower and when he's on his goal scoring streak, which he was earlier in the season We're only getting this number at like plus 115 or plus 110, right? So Plus 160 is just a little bit off for me and I love that Based on where he's at at other books and based on your intuition around him. It seems like he's probably gonna shorten So let's say someone's listening to this 3 p.m. Eastern The number is shortened. How short are you comfortable going where that's still be a value for you? Are we talking like 140? Is that appropriate for you? Do you think yeah? I if it dropped below one four Like if you could if you found it at 125 or 115, I wouldn't love it I probably would just stay away at that point because You know, we're looking at some of the the goal odds in this game Matthews is plus 100. Good chuck is 105. Like that's where they should be And nilander shouldn't be at plus 115 130 is probably the lowest I would consider it. Okay, so it's plus 160 right now for nilander This is in the leaves versus panthers game nilander to score a goal Plus 160 right now check on that as always shop around try to get the best number But it does sound like that is a pretty forgiving number with where things currently stand Anything else you like in the NHL for tonight, tom? The Bruins are hosting the Montreal canadiens This is a great rivalry matchup an original six matchup As the money line would indicate as you can see there The Bruins the best team in the league who are on a record setting pace this year for wins for points Are massively favored tonight their their puck line is incredibly juiced. Yeah, so I actually have interest in going to the Bruins minus two and a half If you can find that on their alt uh puck line um, which is obviously, um Getting a puck lines hard enough is as I've said before but minus 102 Bruins minus two and a half right seems You know, it's it's not forgiving. I'll say that it's not forgiving but based on the Traditional market of the money line and the puck line. I think that's a good indication of what we should be seeing from that this game So if that were to happen like why are they so heavily favored? It's like well, they're heavily favored because they have the best You know the best team in the league and they're going up against one of the worst defenses So if you were to bet that The money line doesn't make sense. The puck line doesn't make sense The alternate puck line is the actual only spot to find any semblance of value Yeah, that's minus 102 That's the spot that would go and then I like one shot prop in this game Which would be brad march on at over two and a half at minus 115 He's the player that uh, I've said before this the guy that you know Licks players faces. I've talked about him before But he shows up in the in these big rivalry games big matchups First forward line first power play Great role for him Whether it be his actual offensive role or the instigator role that he plays He is there for every bit of it So the march hand shot number again is uh over two and a half minus 115 You were talking about the puck line before going back to that the traditional puck line for the bruins Minus one and a half is minus 170 their money line is minus 450 looking at The alternate puck line of minus two and a half at minus 102 and the march hand shot prop Preference for you would you go with the the march hand one just because You're getting a bit more leniency there more paths to that one hitting or Do you want to go with the puck the alternate puck line at minus two and a half? Uh You know if I had to if I had to make a pick It would I would just take the shot prop just because that can absolutely be independent of right The game you know the outcome of the game right where if you told me the bruins won this game One you know two nothing sure that that would make sense because they're they have the best defense in the league and the canadiens are horrible um And now obviously the minus two and a half wouldn't hit so I would just take the shot prop It's just straightforward the easiest to get to yeah That's the march hand again over two and a half minus 115 on that one Just because I'm a novice hockey person I want to ask you in terms of the NBA when we see a team get up big like last night the 76ers they're up 20 Like 30 seconds into the game and Joel and beach doesn't play its second half Do we see similar stuff in the NHL where a team will coast if they get a big enough lead? Or is that dynamic not as important here because we kind of empty net stuff like that How does that dynamic play out in terms of betting the NHL? in terms of betting That's tough because there's Like as I said like we don't see top line players see their minutes dramatically changed Yeah, we're like 21 to 17 minutes can happen But it's never going to be like 20 minutes down to 10 minutes Right, we're just sitting out the entire second half right unless they're in bench, which is obviously rare Yeah, so like third and fourth liners would see but that's strictly based on a game environment where Who was it the abs over the weekend? They beat uh, Chicago five nothing So instead of playing like 22 minutes. Nathan McKinnon only played like 17 or 18 right, so he's never going to sit out the whole period so It does lean towards unders because he literally won't have as many shifts on the ice But that's not something we can project accurately because There's no way to tell if they win this game five nothing or they win this game four to two because if they win the game Four to two, he's going to be out there 100% of the time right and with a shot prop like If they're getting enough shot volume where they're up by that big He's probably going to be involved most likely right and I think that two and a half is not like an outrageous number here It's the shots based on my again novice knowledge of this. No, like if you compare it To his teammate David posh rock I'm I'm going to assume but without looking his shot props going to be four and a half and it might even be Juiced to the over before I even look it's four and a half and it's minus 130. Yeah, so he's their primary shooter Him getting to five if they pull out to a five nothing lead Could be at risk because They're just not going to be put they're just going to be dumping the puck in they're not going to be Striving for offense if they don't have to right okay Well, that is our breakdown of the nba and the nhl for tonight Via tom vekio again If you want to hear a breakdowns of the thursday and friday games and the mens suite 16 Go find those over on the covering the spread podcast feed and over on the fandal youtube page But tom I want to thank you for swinging by for today breaking down both the nba and the nhl Good luck tonight. Good luck to quinipiac, and I'll talk to you again on monday to break down some MLB futures Yes, thanks for having a super exciting time back on monday Absolutely check out tom on twitter at dfs underscore tom find his work on number fire and on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s We are back once again tomorrow awesome cast breaking down the saturday games the elite eight I will also break down uh nascar at circuit of the americas should be a fun time We'll talk to you all then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network