 letters. The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trading hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044. Now, David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition power trading hour with me, your unbelievable and squeezeably soft host. As always, we come to you at this time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. And of course the Fed has come out and this morning I looked on the Fed calendar sheet and it said they weren't having a meeting. And now I just see that there will be a meeting or at least they just said there will be a meeting. I hope they're not confused. But man, I can't keep it straight. Anyway, if you believe a CNBC, now there will be a Fred Press announcement in our Suare Dog and Pony at 2.30. So we've got what, about 24 minutes to wait. But maybe someone can confirm that in the den. But I checked it this morning. It didn't have an asterisk next to it saying that there would be a press event. I don't know what has changed, but we'll get to the bottom of that. Certainly you can give me a call today at 877-927-6648. Not much of a reaction to leaving rates unchanged. They'll be patient, which means they're not going to raise them again probably until 2020, maybe the fall of 2020. The question is whether they would drop rates to keep the economy going. I read the blurbs, the headlines. I didn't see anything in there that made me think that they were going to drop any rates anytime soon. I suspect through the election, they are flat. So I don't think that there's, we're mid-summer now. They've got the rates up a little bit. They'll probably, right after the elections start firing up, if not right before the elections, start moving them higher. So we'll see. Maybe they think by the time they get into that September, October timeframe that the elections, they won't affect the elections, they'll be able to go on. We'd have to have probably 4.5% or 5% growth, I think, for them to raise rates now. They probably would like to see them grow a bit, maybe get a little bit of inflation, and then start tightening the noose instead of trying to get in front of it. And of course, the old saying in the stock market is you react to stuff, not try to forecast it. And I don't know, seemed to me like the forecast should have been in 2015 when they started, should have brought up rates a quarter of a point every six months or maybe every year. Just bring them up a little, trying to do it all at once. I don't understand this whole, we've got to tighten for the next two-year thing, but I'm not a Fed guy. I'm not inside. I'm not part of the Illuminati that runs the world. I just merely float on its, what would you call it? The tides, the tides are the currents, the currents. That's what I do. So not a lot happened and not a lot here. We did have earnings last night and going through Apple earnings, in fact, I guess we'll bring the chart up here rather early. A PPL, here. You had a nice gap up. You're right where this thing get down back on the 2nd of November that really started to move all the way back down to 142. That day had 91.3 million shares. You're into that with about 42.6 million shares. Now to me, everybody that's been a kind of a nitwit has been shorting Apple on the way up. And I think for a great deal of reason, that's why it's gone up. Don't understand shorting a company with $255 billion that can buy shares back at any time and screw your short trade over, because it's no longer about whether or not the financial conditions either improve or don't improve for Apple. It's all about having a giant pile of cash that they can go to war with you the shorter at any time. One of the reasons why I don't like shorting Goldman Sachs or Merrill Lynch or any of the other weasels of Wall Street. Hey, I like that weasels of Wall Street. That kind of sings, doesn't it? That's because they can come out and have a bunch of other people upgrade them. They do it for others. Others will do it for them. They just call them and go, you know what? You need to tell us everybody why Merrill Lynch is just turning led into gold and you'll get a handful of articles and they'll run the shorts out of it. And Apple, the problem is that everybody on Wall Street in a big fund owns Apple. And so it doesn't really do you any good to go. Every say don't fight the Fed. Probably a good thing is not to fight Apple, but the earnings very extremely average. Let's put it that way. Barely made the numbers. But you know what? If they bought shares last night, as soon as the earnings call came out, it's not illegal. How do we know that they're not spending those billions on earning calls nights to game the system? If I saw anything or if I would change anything to stock market rules, it would be not that they can't buy shares back, but they would actually have to disclose them on a daily basis so you know whether they were buying them back and how much. One of the unspoken big lies and that everybody screams about is how much money has been on buy backs. Apple did spend some this quarter, but the reality is that on Wall Street over the last 20 years of the announced and it hadn't really changed the last couple of years either of the announced billions of dollars that we get every quarter on authorized fund buy backs. Only about 15% of that money is ever spent. It is the giant stick for keeping shorts out of your business and Apple wields that well. But again, you short the week and weak people don't have $250 billion to go to war with you. That's attacking somebody that has a lot more to lose than you do and a lot more dollars that they can potentially lose, but I don't understand it. AMD was another one on that particularly mediocre earnings and not surprised because these guys don't have the war chest at Apple that it opened up a little higher and sold off rather plainly. And that's kind of a tale of two stocks today as we wait for everything going on. Anyway, up six points on the S&P cash, not surprisingly volume is fairly lighter so far. We will probably get a great deal more. The dollars peaked back down right here under 97 bucks and of course we've got more earnings after the bell tonight. So we'll get you ready, but we've cleared one hurdle and we've got some more and we're going to talk about that in the next segment after Histoire. The Taz Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? As you begin your trading day, it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions. 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Well, history doesn't repeat as much as it rhymes on this day in 1941, months before its release. Orson Welles landmark citizen film, uh, Citizen Kane began generating huge controversy, uh, that they wouldn't show it. Um, of course, it is a thinly veiled movie that came out on this day in 1941, uh, just ahead of course, uh, the World War II brought to you by the Germans and the Japanese. Uh, anyway, it is a thinly veiled, uh, kind of history of, uh, Mr. Hearst of the Hearst newspapers. Orson Welles was a very good friend of his for a number of years. That friendship ended, I'm trying to remember exactly, was it 1937, 1938-ish? Uh, when, uh, depending on who you listen to, uh, Mr. Hess shot and killed somebody on his boat. And, uh, apparently Orson Welles was there, a bunch of other folks. Uh, they were, uh, for some fairly moralistic, uh, people, especially for, uh, Hearst and his newspapers, um, kind of openly ran around with a girlfriend, uh, along with another actor. And, uh, apparently at least the way that Orson Welles said later, uh, in life, uh, Hearst thought he was cheating with another actor that was on the boat. Uh, they all had big cruisers back then. I think his was like 108 foot. That was 1941. Or, of course, he had more money than Carter had bills. Uh, but of course, uh, spoiler alert, what is it, 80 years later, 60 years, 80 years later, uh, almost 80 years later. Rosebud, the last line delivered in the movie, uh, was supposedly, uh, the reason that, uh, Hearst was so mad, used all his newspapers to make sure no one ever watched it. Of course, uh, for many years, and still other than the fact that most people have grown old and won't watch older movies, uh, always thought that it was the best movie ever made, especially the camera angles. Um, they kind of wiggled out with that in Batman, the television series of the 60s, with all the, uh, they would call them Batman after that. But most of those oblique angles all came from, uh, that 1941 movie in Citizen Kane and the feeling of it and, uh, the great acting. But, uh, one of the best movies of all time, you know, you certainly should take a look at it. And I think, uh, that, uh, Facebook's CEO, uh, the, uh, people that run Twitter, uh, and Mr. Bezos, especially, uh, should watch this movie as a warning of what happens when a man gains the entire world but loses his own soul. Very biblical, very biblical. Okay. Now we're going to go to, uh, charts, take a look at, uh, the emails. You can email me at path at tfnn.com. Uh, you can call in at 877-927-6648 or put a message in the den. Uh, uh, yeah, very good movie. Uh, and, uh, just an aside, there are some very great interviews of Peter Bond, uh, Bogdanovich, uh, who did, uh, what was it, uh, the Texas movie, uh, Bonnie and Clyde, a handful of other ones in the late 60s and early 70s, uh, and continue to make movies and actually was in the Sopranos as the psychiatrist to the psychiatrist. If you remember him, he was an actor before he became a director, but in the last year, he's done three or four major interviews. Uh, and he's expounded on his, uh, he let, he had kind of like a guest home and back and Orson Welles, uh, was always in trouble financially after about the fifties, uh, or sixties and, uh, let him live in the guest house as long as he would talk to him about helping him with his movies. And he did until he died. Like, I don't know, 1980s, gotta be 80s. Uh, but, uh, fascinating interviews with, uh, with, uh, the man who made, uh, all those great movies. Okay. Uh, and as I'm waiting for it, not a lot changed here. Let me update this just to make sure we're up seven points on the S&P cash. That was up 60, what's called 67. Nasdaq, uh, 47 and the Russell up a half, a crude oil off about 44 cents. I think we're getting to the point on the right shoulder on energy where it's going to come back into the 52, uh, area. I went out to lunch today. Gas was, uh, 255 or 256 past a different couple of stations. And, uh, it's kind of interesting to see, uh, people squealing out there in California paying five bucks. But, uh, that's what you voted for. That's what you get. Okay. What else do we have out here? And we got a few bounces, um, and a whole lot of earnings. In fact, why don't we go ahead and take a look at some of those of the bigger earnings persuasions, uh, that we had last night. And then after the segment, uh, in the next segment, we'll get to a lot. Uh, the biggest movers on earnings were frontier communications. Uh, they bought, uh, the end of the Fios net down here in Florida. Uh, man, did they take a beating last year? No better today. Down 13% neighbors industries. Down about 7%. Carlyle group down about 5%. Garmin GPS is apparently they've lost their way down 4%. Clorox company down 4%. Morrison, uh, Coors are brewing down 4%. Zindex down three. Young brands, uh, not doing that well, uh, down, uh, almost 3%. And the rest kind of a whole lot of full, uh, runs, uh, on the winners side, tandem diabetes care up 11%. Uh, Akamai technology up eight. That has, I don't know what to call it, 8%. Groupon up 7%. CVS healthcare up 5%. Apple up 4.5%. Royal Caribbean up 4%. Twillow up, uh, almost 4%. Scott's miracle grow. My choice in the weed business, uh, because it's illegal and it, uh, actually does my thing where I say you want to buy the stocks, uh, that are around the questionable operation. You don't want to buy the questionable operation as in gold miners of the, uh, uh, early and late gold rushes in California and up to Alaska, you want it to be in the picks and shovels. And of course the biggest business still running the gene business for making those that minors could wear all day long. Those are the ones that last. Those are the ones that made the most amount of money. 95% of the people went broke going for gold. Guess what? The gold to the ground now. Another gold rush. But guess what? I think Scott's miracle grow. Man, that's the one to be long term. I think everybody's going to have a victory card in their back and, uh, states going to make a money on marijuana. May in depth with bird in hand. The path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter. And if you're looking for active trading ideas, then now is a perfect time for a 30 day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter. Using a combination of equity trades along with options, David keeps his subscribers up to date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted. Don't miss out on this great chance to get a 30 day free trial to David's daily newsletter, the path of least resistance with no obligation to pay anything. David has been delivering solid recommendations for his subscribers recently. And if you'd like to see the type of newsletter he delivers every morning, then visit the front page of TFNN and you'll find the path of least resistance under trading newsletters for all the details. And to start your 30 day free trial today, log on to TFNN.com now. Hi folks, Tom O'Brien here. If you'd like to get my daily newsletter and market insights, then now is a great time to sign up for a 30 day free trial. Every morning by 9 30, I send out my morning letter to subscribers with market commentary on a variety of markets, currencies and commodities to keep investors up to date on the day's trading action. Included in market insights are specific buy and sell recommendations for stocks, ETFs and even options, which stops and price targets included for every trade in my newsletter. If you'd like to try my newsletter risk free for 30 days, then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find market insights under trading newsletters. I use my years of trading experience to bisect and dissect the market every morning and give my subscribers the most important information they need to know for the day ahead. I even issue afternoon updates for my subscribers whenever warranted with important market action. I'm always scouring the market for the next great trading opportunity. Sign up for your 30 day free trial to my daily newsletter, market insights today by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Well, go get them folks. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program, the Art of Timing the Trade Chart. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best selling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, your ultimate trading mastery system, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first of its kind program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks or even months searching to find. And right now, we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day unconditional money back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. And John from Philadelphia has put in the den. Effective May 2, 2019, the committee directs the desk to roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing each calendar month that exceeds $15 billion. Now, I'm going to say, John says that it's now $35 billion per month, but it was $30 billion per month. Doesn't it bring that down to $15 billion per month? That's one of the hazards of actually being on the air. It's hard to actually figure all this stuff out. Yeah, so you'd be down to $15 billion. So it's actually cut in the bonds. And that may actually help out taking a little money out of the—or taking less money out of the market right now, if I read that correctly. Yeah. Now, some people think that you add those two. I'm going to read it again. Directs the desk to continue reinvesting in agency mortgage-backed securities, the amount of the principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings during each calendar month. I read that that they're pulling. They're not—they're going to take that $15 and roll it back over in more bonds. So they aren't just pulling that money out of the market. But no, I'd say it's actually 15—I read it 15 to the better for the market. And that just means there's going to be less bond supply. And it may be because they put actually, I think, put too much on. Now, one of the things that you instantly want to do is look at the TLT, see how it reacted, see if we had any kind of big movement on that, because you probably should have if it did. So you're up a buck. So I think that actually tells you that that that's good for the markets. So we shall see. But that's an interesting read. Not much movement in the actual S&P so far, but that should do it. Now, of course, we've got some other reasons, as I talked about, in the opening monologue of things going on. We finally have a date now for the Uber IPO. That is the 10th. So expect everything that they can throw at the market. This is the last big IPO probably of the year. There's a bunch of smaller ones coming out. We talked about Slack and how I like the company, but I'm not exactly sure if I like the stock. Uber is a dubious business proposition at best at the prices. Now, they did drop the money that they're asking for it as it goes out the door last week, rather significantly. Think by about 25%. That tells you that probably there wasn't the appetite. It certainly brings the price down significantly. That may still be another 25% too high for me. I don't understand buying IPOs that are priced with 10 years of growth in it. As I said before, you want to kind of look at the future like you're driving in fog. You think that you can see a lot farther than you actually can. The amount of companies that don't make any money, why they're private, that then make money when they're public is small. Facebook being an exception, not the rule. Generally, there are a lot more like Angie's list. If they didn't make money for 10 years, they ain't going to make money now once they go public. That's generally the rule Facebook being the exception. Now, some of these have put all the money back into their business. That's why they've lost money. When you go back into the books, you can look at the free cash flow and see exactly what's happening and if they're actually would make money if they weren't growing so fast and throwing it back in business. Somebody actually told me something like that the other day. Well, but Amazon did it. Amazon did it and I kind of feel like watching Ferris Bueller where they all say they all think that they can get away with it because Ferris can get away with it when they're just not that cool or slick or loved. Some people can just get away with a lot. He was able to do a lot with it because of course the market crashed right after it hit 100 bucks and it took it down to 10. Everybody wrote him off for dead. He basically was able to consolidate power in the company and keep investors at arm's length until he could turn the thing around. Most companies went bankrupt. But again, the exception to the rule is that a stock drops 90% and then comes back even to match that previous high is rare, probably less than 25%. So you'd have to be fairly confident of buying Amazon in 2001 or two at about 10 bucks. Pretty rare. Same thing with Apple except Apple made a wonderful and beautiful chart pattern at about $6.57 split adjusted back there in 2000. I want to say it's March or May of 2003 or four. I think it was 2003 when he finally got the money for Microsoft or got more money for Microsoft and that went on. A little bit. Oh, yeah. I think well we've seen a big change after the bonds in the GLD. It's down 34 since now after being up to 121.55. But I don't know if that really affects gold or if people are just trading to be trading here and maybe something he said during the break. Yep. What else do we have? Okay. Anyway, we're looking at talking about square earnings out after the bell tonight because I can't do anything about what's going on right now. As EPS estimate is $0.08 on $937 million. You've got basically kind of lower highs and higher lows over the last few months in square. I think this is one business where it's kind of maybe gotten as good as it's going to get for square. I haven't seen a lot that actually changed and makes this much better. Probably the best thing for this company right now would be for it to get a real CEO and direct Dorsey to quit splitting his time between trying to manipulate the press with his Twitter and his other evil inventions and maybe try to work for good on either Twitter or square. Square, a lot less virtue signaling, going on a lot less manipulation of free speech. Again, they got their hands caught in the cookie jar over the weekend where they would not show a disabled veteran because they didn't like what he had to say and excommunicated him off their website. I still think that there's a lot of baggage for our square from Jack Dorsey and Twitter that this company would be much better off if it had its own CEO. What were they calling? I'm not a Catholic so I don't know. Excommunicated, that's what I'm thinking of and that's it. We'll keep an eye on that. Okay. What else do we have going on? Oh, we're going to break. We'll go back, look at a few more stocks in a fluid motion. We're back to flat on the S&P cash. Probably the next move out of the market is probably going to be some kind of signal for these first fluctuations, not a whole lot. Got another 30, 40 minutes with the Powell doing his dance on the catwalk. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Tax Act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits, which makes these lots valuable. The investment is anywhere from 30,000 to 75,000. The interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis. According to bankrate.com, the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1%. A $50,000 investment at a normal four-year CD rate of 3.1% would give you income of $1,550 per year or $6,200 over the four-year period. 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Don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV for the latest market information. We've got some action here and some volatility down about seven almost eight points on the S&P cash as we come to you. Now Russell's up one and a half points. Crude really hasn't moved that much. Dow is now just down or is now down 27. So you've got a 75 point move in that. We're now back down to just five. A lot of movement a little bit in gold. I think that's on inflation comments. But again, being live, I don't have a lot of time to research these things. I just have to kind of react if there's something to react to. Let's take a look at some of the other ones coming on tonight and see how they're doing. We talked about Square. We got Fitbit, which is one of those companies that never really quite made it with the wrist bands. You know, $5 is around support. You can't really short stocks after that. There's a good handle at about $5. I wouldn't buy it free earnings, but I would watch this. And if it doesn't do much to the downside, there's a huge short interest that may develop in this one. If this thing would kind of hold out around $5, $5.50 after the bell tonight, after earnings and not do much, that may be a squeeze candidate if we continue to go higher. Qualcomm, of course, after making its deals with Apple, had a huge gap higher, continues to push higher. You've got earnings after the bell on it tonight. Maybe a little bit extended, but you've got two nice huge gaps already. You make a third gap out here, and that may be it for Qualcomm for a while until it consolidates all these. Ideally, you would love for Qualcomm to come back into the low 70s after this giant candle. And you never know. A lot of stuff can happen, but back on light volume in the 70 to 70 to 50 range, maybe as high as 75, is where you probably want to look at this. If you are not long, it are ready. What else do we have? I want to look at tomorrow before the bell. I've got to go back one now. Okay. Tomorrow morning, we've got Under Armour. Let's take a quick look at that. U.A. Come on, Mr. Under Armour. U.A., right? Or UAA, I guess. I have to be better than that. Okay. UAA. I don't know why it's not bringing stuff up. Okay, Under Armour through today. It's down a little bit, down to about $22. Trading range is $16.52 on the low side from the December 26 low and $25 on the upside. So it looks to me like risk-rewarded there to be long Under Armour into earnings, but certainly $25 to the upside and of course, $8 to the downside, most likely. We've got some minor supported about $20.45 from that latest March 25 low, but something tells me that that's going to be hell or heaven by the time we get done tonight. Wayfair, another company that, I don't know what's going on with it, seems to be another bubble in the .com space. We've got somebody in the den that seems to love it, probably because they're along it. But it seems to me like this is another stock that was able to actually hold up and go much higher on everybody shorting it, not so much that it had wildly good earnings. It had mildly better earnings, but seems to me like a lot of the other .com stocks that go up to heaven only to have its wings melt and it fall back into the ocean. For you people, that's a spoiler from some Greek stuff about 2000 BC, but that's it. Also, in the morning, we've got Dunkin' Donuts. Take a look at that. D, N, K, N, and take a look at that as we continue keeping a close eye on the rest of the market, which is already in progress. Dunkin' Group, you tested the previous high, you did so, you went above it, you did so on significantly lighter volume than the September 11th high, that was 76, 77 with 840,000 chairs. Got into it with 530,000 chairs on April 17th, you went above it, reversed right off of it, and actually down a little bit in front of it. These last two legs have been weak, both down and up. This does look like it could have a downside surprise in it, but tough to say. Starbucks, let's take a look at that as bucks, see how it did. Okay. This thing's way up here too, so it wouldn't be surprised to see Starbucks sell off a bit on maybe some bad news from Dunkin' Donuts if we get it. That may be the play, if I was going to go into it, that'd be for after the bell, short Starbucks, and probably not going to go very much higher after the bell, but certainly Dunkin' Donuts, if it got a miss, could go significantly lower and maybe give you a huge sell signal on Starbucks, which I think is wildly overpriced, but it has been for years and can continue on. What else do we have here? Wanted to look at V and Q with the news on the bonds. You wanted to see what happened. You had a little flag out here today, and I'm going to watch this especially over the next couple of days to see how this one reacts to the movement and bonds over the next couple of days as we unwind and unravel and unpack what the Fed actually said today about bonds, but it's going to take me a little while to figure it out. Certainly, we've got some lighter volume in this. It kind of looks like this is getting ready, as we said, to see a lot of action in a double repo market. This is exactly what I'm looking for. The next close below a three by three displaced moving average would be a giant sell signal on the V and Q. What else do we have? LGLD got down to $20.18, $20.53 now, off about 68 cents. The transportation, IYT, certainly probably if we were going to go a lot higher in the near future, probably should have broken up through the $200 level where it hit that on December 3rd. Instead, it kind of got there and rolled over $200 and 42 cents now back underneath it. Same thing on this one. I'm looking for all these patterns to go once more, maybe through this IPO season, above those highs, and then to roll back underneath them, and then you've got some fairly significant downsides in these. That's not forecasting it, a scenario that has not happened yet. But I think you've got a probably a pretty good shot at the IYT at $166 on a failure, but we have no evidence of that yet. No evidence at all that it's failed yet. Just telling you if it does do that. 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Nasdaq's up 22 again, and the Russell's now down two and a half crude off 26 cents. So again, as I said, want to watch the IYT, want to watch the TLT, because those are the ones making a move and getting jiggy. Got up to 250, 445 on the TLT. You're now kind of at the low end of that range. So whatever was going on, that I have to say that that news article was written poorly on what they're doing with the bonds. I'm wondering if this isn't a snap back on a poorly worded column that may have fooled the automatic trading machines, but you're up 61 cents still on the TLT, it's been up all day. But you're probably not going to get the truth out of this in a little while. It's probably going to take a while, maybe to the close, or maybe even tomorrow to actually figure out Fed is still talking, probably still will be for another 15 to 30 minutes. But I'm sure Tom O'Brien in the next hour will talk greatly about it. He's more of a bond guy. And at least take a look at his idea of what's happening. But you know what? It's one of those things where you have to kind of wait a little bit. It's got to go in the oven. It's got to cook a little bit. Got to percolate a little while. I don't see coffee percolators anymore. I wonder what that why that is. Anyway, don't drink coffee was biggest problem. So I don't know a lot about it, but we continue to see a lot of it. And of course, we want to look at those volumes as they come out at the end of the day. We're doing about four and a half billion, which is still incredibly light, not in common when we still have fed people speaking. It's that into the day volume that will matter in the meantime. So when you can, not when you have to see your tomorrow, say that channel, say that.