 Welcome, traders, to TickMill's weekly live market trade analysis with me, Patrick Munley. Before we get going here, if I can just do a quick audio check, if you can hear me loud and clear, and you can see the TickMill welcome screen, if you just type a Y in the chat box and we will... So before I jump into today's discussion, as always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most importantly, the nature of our chat today is the idea that the views and opinions expressed by me are solely representative of me. They are not indicative of those held by either TickMill UK Limited or TickMill Europe Limited. So with that out of the way, quick introduction to myself for those of you who are here for the first time, my name is Patrick Munley. After I graduated from university, I joined the City PLC Consulting Fern and after a couple of years learning the ropes, I left with some colleagues and went on to co-found and successfully exit a consulting startup post-emerger in late 2004. I then moved on to explore my passion for markets with some capital to play with and some time in my hands. I started day trading, but more appropriately day gambling, the S&P 500, and after some beginner's luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginner's luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into what were losing positions, giving back all the gains and ultimately experiencing a six-figure hit on my personal capital. To say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent trading track record, working with my mentor for a period of about 18 months or two years. It was a period during which I upped not just my technical game in terms of researching and developing a strategy that suited my personality, I accepted the back and forward test of this strategy and developed a rigorous risk management approach to underpin it. But most importantly during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably the most important watershed shift for me was moving from being a highly goal-oriented individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. And so what does that mean? Well, actually it means that I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and you have that professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. And no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a group of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable on your return since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through my managed account service delivering annual positive returns and you can see the performance data on the screen. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've personally mentored over 100 private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to read consistent returns from the markets. I've also consulted to numerous brokers and trading education brands contributing written content, webinars and live presentation content on a range of topics from market analysis to trading strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring, I'm also the resident market expert for TICML providing daily market and trade analysis and you can access that through the TICML blog. You can put your email in there and you will receive those updates direct to your inbox. My other, I guess, passion project is as head of trading and trading education for fxcriswap.com and fxcriswap, we offer development and funding to retail trading times. fxcriswap, we don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge, we work on mindset development and through a structure program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit-share basis. For those that are interested in learning more about fxcriswap, you can see on the screen at the moment the telephone number for the desk in London. If you are looking for further information, you can email them as well and the guys on the desk in London will get back to you in a timely fashion. That gives you a flavour of where I'm coming from and now I want to jump into the charts. I've got a bunch of charts to run through today. What I'll do is I'll go through the charts that I've earmarked here and then at the end I'll open up for a brief Q&A and if you have any questions you can type them into the chat box or I can unmute your mic and if there's anything to do with the content we discussed today or anything else to do with the trading, I'm happy to have your answer. We're going to start looking at the equity markets, the risk barometers I guess. So we're looking at the S&P 500 here and important to note that we are sitting at or just below current prices, this trend line from last March to low, the post pandemic lows so to speak. We've made a fourth test of this trend line and we're starting to erode some support here. If we take out this orange line which is the projected weekly range support currently sitting at 37.78 then I'm looking for an equality objective, so equal legs versus this swing structure here to put it down into a test of 37.33. From there I'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns to set long positions, ultimately looking for a move up through the 4000 level in terms of the S&P. Now we might not get down to this area, we may get a close today back through the trend line and certainly we want to see a close back through the weekly pivot here, the weekly pivot comes in at 38.50 to get constructive before we test this equality objective, but for now my sense is that as we were taking out this trend line I think we're going to test 37.33, I'm watching the bullish reversal patterns for long positions talking move up through the 4000 level in terms of the S&P 500. Now if for whatever reason we don't see sufficient demand into the market here at 37.33 and I'll be looking for a move down through the 36.65 to the monthly predicted range support down to 36.19 which is also the 161 pivot extension of this structure here so we could then see this type of pattern develop. I wouldn't be looking for a immediate move there from that level to wartime highs, I think we would probably have to do a bit more sideways price action to build momentum for another run but certainly I would anticipate that we'd see some demand come into the market on a test of that area if 37.33 fails. Dow Jones, I think we are going to get similar story here really to the S&P, I'd like to see us pull back into the 30,475 area to gain is that trend line third test from the March lows, watch for bullish reversal patterns to get a retest of the ascending projected trend line resistance 32,343 on route I think then to a test of the 33,000 level. DAX trading looking for a test now of its ascending trend line resistance so I'm looking for a move up to 14,400 here certainly as we trade above the weekly pivot at 13,842 watch for bearish reversal patterns there we've got a bunch of divergence developing here in the cycle indicator and so whilst we have that divergence any test up into this area I'll be looking to fade on reversal patterns ultimately looking for a retest of the weekly range support 13,726 and then monthly range support which will coincide with this trend line then from the March lows for DAX there so 13,333 next area to watch on the down the side where we could see some some bias step back into the market. Finally in terms of the equity indexes the Nikkei traded just shy of the target zone I was looking for this 31,100 zone we pull back we're sitting at that internal trend line support if we get a bullish reversal pattern here we could still see one more push higher into this ascending trend line resistance and the monthly range resistance coming at 31,88 but if we don't get back into this channel today or sent by the closing tomorrow then I think we can be starting to think of a corrected pattern already underway and I've been looking for this type of structure to play out so something like this and then see if balls are going to step back in at the 27,245 area setting up a move into the top side of the channel. Dollar so this is the equal ways of dollar index this is a dollar versus the Aussie, the Yen, Sterling and the Euro I think although we've seen some constructive moves in the dollar of late I'm driven by the yields and we'll look at the 10-year yield in a minute I think we're in a period here where we're probably going to go sideways for a bit we've got the most importantly for today and really for this week obviously we have payrolls tomorrow but tonight at 5.30 UK time Fed chair Powell is going to be on the words he's doing a sit down interview with the Wall Street Journal and I would imagine or the view is that he probably will try and walk back some of this this strength that we've seen in the yields so looking at you know looking at front front-end rates I mean if he does then I think this that will prompt this sideways move to correct further in terms of the in terms of the dollar in late this is the equal sorry this is the broad-based dollar index so versus six pairs so I think you can see here we could get up into these prior highs 9165 and again I think we can correct we're basically replicating I talked about this last week so I'm not going to labor again but you can see this sideways action that we had into the back end of last year I think we're doing a similar thing over here and I'd anticipate that we've got a bit of work to do in terms of just corrective action before ultimately we set up for the next leg of downside in terms of the dollar index so something up into this area and then I'm ultimately looking for a move down to test that 8750 which is the long-term downside objective for the dollar index on this on this leg lower so I still think we can do it we can see a bit more upside in the dollar and then some sideways before lower is the is the view there 10-year yields we saw a big spike up through the 150 and we're now correcting that move I think and this if it pal does come out tonight and talks down these these yield expectations then certainly we get back down to this 135 area depending upon how much dual boning he does and the strength of what he's saying it could be that we go we take a deeper move back here before ultimately I think we're heading up to to make a test of the 165 area in terms of yields and then from there again I think we can see more correction in terms of in terms of yields metals so gold sitting right at this projected sending trendline sport we've got weekly range support just below us at 1690 I'm looking for a pot higher here in terms of gold to get back into this this 1760 area and then from there I think we complete this second leg of this big abc let me draw that infuse so we see exactly what I'm talking about so we have a b high here at 1690 and I'm looking for a c low at 1653 you will see there as well that that will complete a nice interim five wave pattern here and then from there I think we can see a more meaningful correction in gold so from this 1650 area we could then be looking for a bounce back up into the yearly pivot from below so back up into the 1800 level so I'm paying very close attention to one of the potential for a bullish reversal here today to set initial interim tactical long positions and then I'll see how we trade up into this 1770 area but the area that I'm really most interested in in watching for a reaction and a more meaningful corrective phase is going to be from this 1653 quality objective to the downside so paying very close attention to that in terms of gold silver a little bit stronger sitting on its trendline support third test so I'm watching for bullish reversal patterns here and I think what we could be then thinking about in terms of silver obviously we had the reddit crowd trying to run silver up and they got a pretty nasty shock but what I think we've got then is an ascending triangle pattern developing whereby if we hold here we have bullish reversal patterns I think we get back up and retest this 30 level and ultimately break out here to the upside in terms of silver so very very interesting where we close today in terms of silver if we can get back through the five-period VWAP 2653 will be a bullish reversal pattern for my trading strategy and I've been looking to get long silver certainly for a test of back through the 30 and then thinking about higher prices in terms of silver in the coming weeks pretty well we've seen the initial pullback in terms of career we talked about this 63 level in previous sessions I'm now looking for a test of this internal ascending trendline support which would put us into a 5870 zone and from there I would be watching for bullish reversal patterns we've got the weekly pivot we've got the daily sorry the weekly range support projected range support coming there so I think if we get a bullish reversal pattern in around this zone I look to be long talking to move up to the primary ascending trendline resistance up towards $70 barrel mark in terms of crude oil copper so we we tested up into the 430 we're seeing a three-way corrective move now so if we can get a green close today back through the five-period VWAP I think copper could be set here to to make a test of projected ascending trendline resistance up as high as 457 is the next upside objective certainly we've retested here the monthly pivot and found some pretty strong demand and we've also retested this ascending trendline resistance from above here and that's where we're seeing this demand come in so watch for a close back through one sorry 413 area for long positions targeting move up into 455 Bitcoin I've talked about this at some length over the weeks where I what I think we're doing as we're essentially replicating the corrective phase that we saw at the beginning of this year and so to my mind we're doing a bit of back and filling here in terms of in terms of Bitcoin ultimately what I'd really like to see is a test of this 40 for the two area for then seeing the next leg to the upside it might be that we have to do a bit more sideways consolidation first but certainly any pull back into this 42 zone that sees bullish reversal patterns versus ascending trendline support coming in here just below the 4133 I think that's the next entry point in terms of in terms of Bitcoin I'm holding it from 10950 which was a setup we looked at in one of these live analysis sessions back in October but if we can if we can hold that 42 on a test and I think we've got scope to run up certainly getting moved towards the $70,000 price target there in terms of Bitcoin this is the $1 we're sitting right at that or just above that weekly trendline support at a 640 level and like I said last week I think we've got a bit of back and fill here a bit of sideways maybe we test 640 to again ultimately I've been looking for for that area to hold and suppress to see higher prices I think we're going to test up into the yearly pivot here at some point maybe heading into the summer 670 area there's a lot of options activity into the back end of last year looking for a 670 test into the the middle half of this year so I think that's the objective versus this area so if we can get if this RSI stochastic can roll back over get back below the 20 level without price breaking through these current lows then I think that sets up an excellent opportunity on the outside in terms of the Dolly one. Dolly Yen heavily correlated to the yield story obviously so I've got an area that I'm going to be watching later today we're into this evening with with power coming up just ahead really of that 108 area we've got projected weekly range resistance at 10775 got projected trend line resistance coming in there 10780 if we get through there then the if we don't see any bearish reversal patterns here then it's going to be this major trend line resistance 109 is going to be the area to pay attention to for a potential opportunity to to fade some of this this dollar Yen strength Swissy looking for 93 now and and again I'll be watching the bearish reversal patterns here to set short positions I think we get some back and feel them maybe back down to this 9050 or we've got a monthly range support down to 9020 and then we'll see if buyers are going to step back in here but come quite quite a decent clip here in a short period of time and so I've been looking to to fade this area looking for a pullback in terms of the dollar Swiss euro whilst we hold 122 47 as resistance I think we need to probably take a look at the equality objective now so this is our a b and we're going to see 118 50 monthly projected range support down to 1826 so any reversal patterns in this area I think then sets the stage for the next leg higher in terms of the euro and I'd be thinking in terms of the top side of this channel up through 125 is the next upside objective for the euro euro yen looking for another leg higher here to test the 161 extension of this swing here so I'm looking for 130 35 we've got ascending trend line resistance get some divergence going here on the momentum study and then I think we see a three-way corrected move back into 127 before setting the stage for a move up to test the 132 target in terms of the euro yen so today well say tomorrow watch this 130 35 area I think that's going to be an opportunity on the short side euro swiss I posted this on the blog this morning came just shy of my target I'm looking for a 111 59 111 60 this is this is yearly projected range support you can see earlier in January we came down just shy of yearly projected range support and we've traded straight up into the resistance area so I think we this is going to be a shorting opportunity here for a move back to test this 109 area as support so watching for bearish reversal patterns here to get in on the short side looking for 109 euro sterling has held that weekly trend line support doing a bit of back and filling here and so I'd look for a move down into this 85 60 area watch for bullish reversal patterns long positions then and I think we get a move up into this 88 nine well 89 level which is the yearly pivot I think we retest that from the from below it's it's what I'm watching euro sterling euro Aussie if we can hold this range weekly range support here 154 and I think we get up into 159 and then I'd like to pull back to set up an inverse head and shoulders pattern here so I'm watching 155 60s and then I think we can get that move up into projected monthly range resistance at 160 85 so keeping an eye on the euro Aussie euro cad is sitting right at this trend channel support could get another touch lower here I'd like to see it test 151 60 and then bullish reversal patterns and I think we can get a move back up into 154 25s what I'm watching there in terms of the euro CAD euro Kiwi similar idea really to the the euro Aussie looking for an inverse head and shoulders pattern to develop here we can get break out of this channel test weekly range resistance 168 30 then I pulled back to test this prior trend line resistance of support from above giving us an inverse head and shoulders pattern so 165 90 area and I think we can target 171 on the upside sterling Aussie I've got an equality objective at the 83 level 183 looking for a breakthrough the the monthly pivot here to set that move up to 183 in terms of the sterling Aussie and I think we get another pullback into this 177 area so watching to see if we can get some continuation here and non positions there and looking for a test of 183 in the sterling Aussie sterling whilst we hold this 140 areas resistance now I'm actually looking for a move to test this 137 30 137 50 area trend line support just below 136 70 any bullish reversal patterns in here I think is a great opportunity on the long side certainly looking for a move back through the prize at 142 looking 145 as as the next target there but really what I'm looking for is this equal legs target to to play out in terms of sterling so I just dragged this across you can see the target the measured move target for this for this sequence is actually 147 so plenty of scope there if we can get this set up back in around this 137 50 area to play for the the test of the ascending trend line resistance and the equality objective at 147 sterling yen similar deal really to the euro yet I'm looking for a potential double top here we're getting some nice momentum divergence and so as we get up into this area three-way correction back into test 147 34 a support for a higher ultimately looking for for a test of the ascending trend line resistance at 153 then in terms of sterling yen sterling swiss has traded up into the top side of this channel potential for a double top here and we've got some momentum divergence and so if we hold this high look for corrective move back into 126 to bullish reversal patterns set long positions and then I think we've got scope to to trade up in this a monthly range resistance up into 133s there in terms of sterling swiss after we broke out from this long basing pattern here at 120 123 area sterling kiwi looking for a test of channel support here 188 90 189 I think that would be an opportunity on the long side then to target 197 nothing to do in this chop here at the moment the Aussie getting a bit of a pull back here where we've eroded this trend line support from the March lows so what I'm looking for now is a three-way correction into this 76 level and from there watch a bullish reversal patterns in my target for the the subside move now is going to be this test of the 82 30 which is the leading diagonal this should see this probably terminates the move them for a while and we have to do a some more deeper corrective work in terms of the Aussie but uh yeah pay attention to how we trade at the 76 level for long positions target from 82 Aussie yen so whilst we hold 8384 watch for a test of the ascending trend lines for 80 75 in the pivotal and then I think we're going to move up into the 87 39 area is going to be the next upside objective in terms of the Aussie yen so three-way correction into trend line support bullish reversal patterns targeting 87 50 Aussie Swiss similar story looking for a test of the trend line support here 69 35 prior highs and watch a bullish reversal patterns and then target 74 80s Aussie cad has broken the trend line support here so we might be looking to do some sideways action here in terms of the Aussie CAD but certainly moves back into these prior highs at the 96 handle 96 60 watch for bullish reversal patterns I think the target certainly projected monthly range resistance above 400 Aussie Kiwi looking for a test and failure at the 107 69 to set shorts again targeting this trend line support 105 70s before we potentially break higher there in terms of the Aussie Kiwi Kiwi sitting nicely I haven't shot at this on the long side um yes on Monday I've got stopped out small small loss there but I'm watching now if we can hold this trend line support and get these bullish reversal patterns I think we take out the prior highs and we're going to move up to 75 30 so keep an eye on how we trade here at this this trend line sport projected weekly range sport coming just below 71 60s is the pivotal area and I think an opportunity to do something on the long side there with Kiwi Kiwi yen looking for a test of the ascending trend line support now something around this 76 40 area opportunity then on the long side targeting the projected monthly range resistance 81 28 Kiwi Swiss not not such an attractive setup there at the moment I'll pass on that one similar story with the Kiwi calves Swiss yen sitting at the trend line support if we can get a bullish reversal today that takes out the five period view up on a closing basis so 116 69 will be the closing area to watch and I think we can target 119 69 cadm last but not least so what I'm looking for here with the cadm is a test of this ascending trend line resistance and a fade there so what's with bearish reversal patterns to get a short position going looking for a test of the 82 50 ascending trend line support for the attempt another leg to the upside so a couple of bunch of charts there I hope you can get a sense of what it is I'm watching certainly want to pay attention this evening seven sorry 530 UK time for Fed chair power beyond all the news wires and let's see what sort of impact he has on the on the rates perspective at the moment but as you can see with these charts and this is often the case that when we have these type of events that you'll see that a lot of prices are at or just below or above pivotal levels and what tends to happen is the technicals lead and then you get this fundamental catalyst to drive the pattern so pay close attention to to the comments from Powell and how the market responds and some of these prices where we closed and I could give some decent setups so with that said are there any questions if you don't have a question it's equally useful if you type an n in the chat box so that I know we're all on the same page okay so if there are any questions I'm going to wrap this session up here guys and we will reconvene at the same time next week thanks very much and have a great weekend