 Hi, my name is Liam row currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand for its technical Analysis if you're new welcome, and if you're returning welcome back And don't forget to like subscribe and share with your fellow traders if you find the information in here useful and Yeah, let's get into the fundamentals as we always do fundamentals and this sentiment is what really drives the market and understanding of value so Getting into the week ahead next week The US will be publishing retail sales in industrial production housing data and flash Michigan consumer sentiment so some decent potential market moving Data But I don't really think that's gonna it might add to the narrative I think any positive news at the moment for the dollar Isn't necessarily going to necessarily move the dollar higher It seems like the rate cut narrative is well in truly Being priced into the market. I'll get into a bit into that in a sec elsewhere Other important releases include UK and unemployment wage growth retail sales and inflation That's gonna be important for the UK eurozone foreign trade German investor morale German is the Europe's powerhouse. So if investors morale is down then It's gonna affect You know the the eurozone China second quarter GDP growth Industrial production is gonna be important for global growth narrative as well Is the world in a global slowdown is China slowing down or is it? You know still we're maintaining its dominance retail sales and fixed asset investment Japan trade balance and Australia employment figures so Decent week What happened really last week was the narrative that the the Fed is still going to be cutting interest rates And what's quite interesting is this this article in the market watch and the writer Jeffrey Bartash says an economy gone mad the Fed is going to cut interest rates despite record stock prices and low unemployment and it is a bit of a strange one Interest rate cuts are usually I guess synonymous with a Economy that's heading into a potential recession, but the US is You know by far the best economy in the world but interesting we'd I leave a link in the description box below but Someone says Think a critic of the Fed Stephen Stanley says that his case which is fed Jerome power For easing is focused almost exclusively on the uncertainty caused by trade negotiations and the result in drag on business confidence and investment said You know Stevens Stephen Stanley chief economist. I find the case for easing incredibly weak And it's an interesting article like I said the economy is doing you know well America's doing well and Not even close to really you know recession territory yet the Federal Reserve is cutting rates And it's just to probably try and get ahead of potential global slowdown and also use it as a as leverage against China in the in their little trade war that's going on I say little but it's You know the trade war that is between China and in America and so we have a 100% ease this is the CME Fed watch tool and it's the probability of potential rate cut and The market is pricing in a 77.5% rate cut at 0.25 and a 22.5% 0.5 Cut in July, which is 17 days from now just over two weeks from now into the month So that's gonna be probably the narrative until This happens and by the way just as a tip if they do if the Federal Reserve do not cut You probably want to be buying the dollar because it's gonna wrong foot the market if even if they do cut I don't think that you know the dollar is still a sell maybe and lead up to it It's a situation where you've got by the rumor sell the fact the type scenario going on and the market is really just pricing in what the potential cut will be and we'll get into that on the With regards to the technicals. So if you want to know a bit more about the fundamentals have Absolutely free fundamental analysis and sentiment course and it basically just goes over the basics of GDP inflation rates and interest and inflation interest rates and a lot of other things as well how to really trade the news and You know risk on and risk off and how it really affects prices, so I think it's in the description box below and let's get into the The technicals now and starting off as we always do on the US dollar Index so what we have US dollar index wise is From last week. I see the week before think the 30th. This was updated I Prices for the dollar and Dow Jones dollar index just a measure of you know dollar strength against the major currency like the euro yen And the pound we came up into this area here last week beginning of last week into the supply zone before selling off with drone power basically talking down the being very dovish basically on the dollar so you're seeing a bit of Selling off on the Dow Jones dollar index so if we go to the charts and Here we are what we have is a bit of a demand zone here. This is proof of value right here So what we're looking at is at the moment if dollar starts to rally within this demand zone You're looking for really buy trades on any of the dollar crosses at the moment like I said negative sentiment wise on the Dollar as there is anticipation of an interest rate cut So you probably may want to potentially buy at the lower end of this demand zone Here prices do come down to here if you're looking to sell the dollar You'd be looking for prices to come really back up to You know this zone here before looking at a sell trade so right now potential buyers and If that demand zone doesn't work out then you're looking at this area right here as a level of To look to buy the the US dollar like I said I don't think the even though the US dollar rock cutting interest rates are potentially Gonna cut interest rates at the end of the month. It puts pressure on a lot of the other Currencies who also want to weaken their Currency like the Euro the yen the Swiss National Bank as well Who have said that their currencies are basically overvalued so? The week of the dollar becomes the more problematic it is for other currencies who also want to weaken their currency so You know that the price doesn't go down forever So they could be some decent buying opportunities when it comes to the the dollar and looking for confirmation on the Dow Jones dollar index so next up we have the dollar yen and Again Couple weeks we have came up into this supply zone kind of peaked through it and then we had You know the dollar sell-off you can see the correlation with the Dow Jones dollar index coming down to this area here So what we do have now is actually demand zone within that area Let's go to the yen demand zone right there not here, but we've got Supply we can change that supply zone now because you've made lower highs and potentially lower low So what we're looking for now is potential buy trades either within this zone Here or if prices get down to and I do like this lower area of demand this 107 area That's where looking to get Long if you're looking to get short, then you're looking at basically a pullback From here prices do pull back from here Then you're looking at potential short trades again the Japanese yen will benefit from a risk of Environments, so if again risk of starts to come into the market the Japanese yen will strengthen so That's pretty much those are your options at the moment Supply zone right here as well on the daily Next looking at the Dollar Swiss Frank and the dollar Swiss We did get a move, you know from this area here this demand zone all the way up all the way up And now we're actually pulling back and we're actually into this this demand zone right here, so What we're looking To do Now is look for demand Zones demand zone right there and Also into a demand zone at the moment as we've made higher highs right there, so right now Would be decent time for to look for some long trades Again, the better area is gonna be down into this demand zone If you think about where we are from a ranging perspective Where we are from a cheaper and expensive area if you really want to buy the dollar then You know, this is an expensive area because the market can't push higher Which means that this must be a cheap and a bargain area as prices You know went higher from there proven proof of value So anything above what we will say the 50% level was fair value So we're buying in a maybe more the expensive area and anything below this would be more of a cheap and a bargain area So what we want to do is look for buying opportunities either at this area here or at this Zone right here preferably down here if prices negative sentiment pushes prices to where we want to be buyers so Decent level right there Looking at the dollar It's a cad and the dollar cad At the moment is a really kind of struggling. We did have a bit of a Move up price kind of moved down a bit of a move up and prices, you know continually kind of just grinding to the downside I think the Canadian dollar really is the only Central bank Bank of Canada at the moment is the only one that's really not that dovish on On interest rates, so I think the Canadian Canadian dollar has been strengthening overall and But we're still down into this demand and I think this one point three round number is gonna be the The put in the area if price is gonna reverse from around here, and let's go to charts So at the moment Take that What we have is price at the moment Let's just delete that right So, yeah, I think it's one point three round number is where prices may want to start to look for Reversal if you're looking to buy the dollar And we also have an area of demand right there in fact you can pull this demand zone right down to here and It's also coincides with the level of support and resistance obvious levels, so Not only do we have value we're gonna have the supply and demand equation within this zone here as well So I think this round number is decent for a Buy trade Let's just start deleting some of that So again around here is where we want to put it look for Any kind of buy trades if you're going to buy the Canadian dollar take advantage of the immediate trend And we'll be looking at that area right there. I'm not sure why we have all these Supply zones within this area, but it should be there so again, we're looking for Prices intraday to come back to this area to look for trend if you're looking at that kind of trend continuation or potentially up into this zone as a level to sell We are at the yearly lows or actually we've passed the yearly lows as well We're looking at 2019 and let's go to year-to-date to the year as that was that was the 2019 highs and now we've actually broken past 2019 lows so potentially looking for a reversal prices haven't really pulled back to you know fair value either so we're expecting some sort of pullback as well around this area Maybe not this week, but maybe into the next coming weeks But if we get a game again, you know the right kind of price action, then we're looking for you know certain buy traits Moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar and New Zealand dollar US dollar So past couple weeks have been interesting prices came up to this supply zone Sold off a little bit came down into this hidden demand zone and then ended up going high of sales last week, sir Trade right there Nice price action and again. This was due to the dovishness from the Federal Reserve So go into New Zealand dollar US dollar this week Let me just tidy all this up I have no idea why this is a This is looking like this. So I'm on there looking for It's for prices to come back into this zone For sell trade if not this higher level right here around this six seven six to six seven eight level would be Second area if you're looking to be a buyer of the New Zealand dollar is basically looking for price to come back into this area here What I'm gonna do is start dated there here as that is some nice hard in hard out price movement. So Yeah, I would say Prices to pull back that's going to be the first area to look for by trades and at the moment this week would be an area to look for some short trades and you've got some confluence here of Support support turning into resistance. So decent areas to look for some trades this week Moving on to the pound dollar pound dollar Past few weeks did manage to sell off The demands I really didn't hold there, but this one below actually did And the pound has been suffering from Brexit sentiment and So it hasn't necessarily been the best pair to look for by trades Let's go to the pound dollar So what we're looking at the moment is some Supply right here, and I think probably be from up there The whole area of supply a bit of supply there into price to come down into that demand zone. So This week we could be looking at short trades right now or Anywhere pretty much up into this zone right here and if we're looking for some some confluence within that area Let's have a look probably Bit higher up Be you know, you got some some support Resistance resistance resistance. So anywhere I think around this one twenty seven to one twenty eight level We'll be looking for some decent short trades Again as bad as the dollar is sentiment-wise, I think the British pound isn't strengthening because you know Traders want to be buying the the British pan for everybody just taking profit on the US dollar. So it's looking at Any kind of short trades here in today? And then if not, then you'll be looking at sell trades around This area right here for the to buy the US dollar Looking at the euro Euro dollar right euro dollar Prices, you know fell away from this supply zone right here came down into this demand zone here and then we basically, you know Prices are pretty much reversed from here again. This is more to do with some negative dollar sentiment rather than Euro strength the European Central Bank of pretty much, you know trying to weaken their currency and has said Numerous occasions that they may actually start introducing stimulus so Which isn't good for their currency, but they have to always try to look for and look to Sorry We can their currency to boost inflation. So what we've got here. We've got a level of supply level of supply Yeah, level of demand right there and some demand right there So looking at where we're looking for trades if you're still looking to get short on the dollar this week Nice area to look for some short trades here. Even better would be this area right here If you're looking at buying the euro That would be, you know where you're looking for some long trades If you get a pullback into this level first touch Well, I should say this is the really the first touch of the level second touches are okay and Like I said from an overall range in perspective You've got a high or that low to that high where prices have been contained So at the moment, we're at fair value Supply at the moment anything around here would be considered a bargain for the dollar anything below He would be a bargain for the euro as you can see where what prices have done in the past Next on the list is the euro yen and the euro yen It's pretty much bounced around this week They get a nice reversal a couple weeks ago And then prices came down into this kind of spike through that, you know The man's own into the lower area of demand and then prices kind of held and now we're in between really You know that low and that high again heading down potentially the end probably strengthening due to potential risk off Sentiment coming into the market global risk So let's just clear this up drawing this chart. So there are supply and demand zones at the moment. So What we're looking at is either a move down into that area and look for buy trades on the euro The euro doesn't necessarily look the strongest at the moment But with you know, you'd be looking for positive news out of Germany and Europe really before looking at buying the euro If you are looking to buy the Japanese yen You'd be surprised to really kind of come back up into this area And I do like this this zone right here this one two three twenty zone as As an area to look for short trades Japanese yen wise again, especially if risk starts to really kind of come back off And the risk of environment would be you know, Donald Trump pretty much Saying that he wants You know to ratchet up the rhetoric with China and Any kind of deals that are not on the table then you know The Japanese yen will end up strengthening. So Those are pretty much options for this week going on to the Australian dollar US dollar and We did have a couple weeks ago Last into last week. We had a bit of a move down a bit of a move up And then we had the interest rate cut from the RBA push prices lower Then we also had you know now the Federal Reserve looking to cut rates So prices you know gone higher a little bit, which isn't good for the RBA the Reserve Bank of Australia. So the higher this goes the more I'll probably want to be a Shorter and a buyer of the US dollar as their economy is actually a lot better than the Australian economy. So let's look at the price chart and Delete some of this Do is put some new Supply and demand zone. She's got supply there Got a bit of supply around here From a demand perspective, you got demand right there I'm gonna say this is gonna be a bit of demand. It hasn't really You know proven that you know, it's it's demand So it's in a strong area of demand because that's taken out the new highs But you'd have this nice hard-in hard-out price movement And I think this is a decent area of demand. So just be careful. It's not necessarily the best area But I think it's a decent area of demand in that zone So if you are looking to get long The lower end of that area so that one 0.692 level be a decent area to look for some long trades if you're looking for short trades at the moment The fresher area of supply would be you know at the highs right there And then you've also got some supply Round here as well. We can turn that into supply Supplies on right so that's where we are at the moment again the dollar still regardless of you know, rate cuts is the really the best economy and currency out of Out of the rest and Finally we have the Australian dollar Japanese yen Again a couple weeks ago. We did have a Move up into that supply zone a bit of a set off but in prices You know and for the past maybe week or so have really just been you know in a sideways market Again, I think there's been less risk off at the moment in the market So the Aussie yen really is an indication of risk sentiments So the fact that it's gone sideways means that risk offers really kind of calmed down in the market not necessarily risk on but You know, it's a less risk off. So let's go to the charts and see what we can update and We have We've got a bit of a zone right here zone right here. So let's just add that one there So at the moment We're looking for, you know, any kind of sell trades right now Probably more up into this area this higher area here before looking at, you know, short trades Again, you'll be buying the Japanese yen based off of risk off sentiment And if you're looking at a risk on play, I think the nearest design is going to be really, you know Down here before you're looking at any kind of risk on and risk on would be an agreement between you know, China and The US as well as, you know, global growth, you know, coming back into the market, etc So these will probably be your areas to look for an area An areas to trade you've got as an area of a confluence zone where you've got resistance resistance resistance What I would say though is that again the more times the level is touched the weaker it becomes So what you probably want to do is look for anything Any kind of manipulation around this area here before looking at, you know, short trades or look for the 77 round number You know higher before looking at getting short but again just to ensure that risk is off if you're looking to get short So that's it for this week. Hope you enjoyed the analysis. If you do have any questions Please let me know and I'll try and get back to you as soon as possible Guys take care and have a great trading week