 Hi, this is the weather forecast for Thursday through Monday April 9th through 13 and get us into the middle of the month almost I'm chief meteorologist John Hemsworth for the Longmont public media Let's start with the moon In the middle of our forecast window Saturday April 11th before it really hits. Well, maybe not. We'll see But maybe raining it but we will have a waxing crescent moon rising kind of later in the evening I won't see it unless you're out late and We are just past full And the big story is a big change. We've had some beautiful weather warm temperatures dry conditions Maybe a little too dry for some but it's it's been very nice to be out getting some uh Exercise a little bit of walking in and like that. Well, that's going to come to an end. Sorry But it's middle of april. This is our second snowy this month climatologically and uh, that's what's happening As thursday noon comes about about the time we go live with this Longmont is on the northeast side of a front kind of draped along the mountains. This is sort of a An orographic front orographic mean created by mountains or elevation And so yeah, lots of cool air pouring down in the center part of the nation The leading edge of that is this front stretching from the east coast down into the gulf States and then up through the rockies All the way up into the canadian rockies. So it really is on the western side all stopped by elevation The system we're looking at is rolling around. It's been creating day after day of rain in southern california And that will continue for a while before it heads our way for friday morning The front's still here, but a piece of upper-level energy comes through and kicks off some mountain snows lower elevation rain showers for friday You can see the main storm is still back here in the southwest Take a look at the big picture and then we'll come back to this graphic a little bit later Here's our outstanding warmth Going through thursday even into saturday. So it's not over yet. Even if showers are returning you'll have to dodge those It's not until sunday that the bottom drops out or late saturday night And it takes us quite a while most of the week to be returned to above freezing temperatures As you can see down here this blue line really marks the main front the main storm Impact or from there on the ensemble runs. These are all different runs of the model horizontally through time Agree pretty well that this rain or snow falling All right, this is an animation putting everything together and we'll run through this a few times because i'm talking over the beginning of it right now But this is a 500 mill bar map This is halfway up in the atmosphere as pressure goes Where there's cold air dense air the heights You have to go to to find half pressure or lower and where it's warmer They're higher. So you can kind of see a direct correlation there and we're going all the way through Near the end of april so April 23 or April 24 the end starting out Here's our low rolling around southern california Actually by friday it rolls down southwest before Connects with the jet rolls by on sunday giving us our sunday storm. Then we have this northwest flow again Setting up for a long time because another storm coming thursday friday Saturday next week the brief ridge And the northwest flow kind of keeps going with another ripple coming in Tuesday the 21st Northwest folks still keeping us cooler as another ripple for friday the 24th So let's do it one more time. Here's the low rolling down down to the southwest and it reconnects saturday into sunday That's when we get our first big shot. This ripple gives us our next big shot on monday tuesday Another ripple for later in the week But this is definitely puts us on the cool side of the the jet stream flow Which is created by the boundary between warm and cool air the two kind of chicken and egg off of each other So how much precipitation will we get out of all this? Well over the next five days, we'll just take it in pieces here That's a pretty good amount about a quarter inch maybe a half inch of total precipitation on its rain And snow melted added together snow according to the gfs Uh kind of hits in the one inch to two inch area towards firestone. Maybe a little bit less more of a coating Uh, so again a big yet not a big snow producer yet, but it's going to keep going next week You can see after this passes and the big sunday monday Precipitation chances go we have temperatures below freezing from sunday early morning all the way to wednesday night And even then it just gets up to the vicinity of freezing So it's really not till thursday afternoon that we warm up Enough to start seeing some melting So this is all snow in here. What does that look like when you add it up? What we see over the next 10 days in precipitation is a lot of water This is the one inch mark in the blue Green boundary one inch of liquid snow and rainfall melt two inches right on this side and even Two and a half inches just up in the foothills above us So definitely a lot of water coming down if you're concerned at all About moisture that's taken care of in the next 10 days for snowfall. It's impressive as well You can see six inches out To the east of fort collins Little downslope hole here around denver. It's kind of interesting where they only get One to four inches But where we are sitting that puts us pretty clearly in the one foot to even 16 inch mark There's 14 inches coming around here And right up here Estes park foot and a half or so So very snowy for the mountains and the foothills snowy on the plains Here's an interesting comparison. This is a different model. This is the gem model a canadian model And the taking a look at the forecast 10 day forecast So it's looking at the same accumulation period for snow For us using 10 to 1 snow ratio if you're wondering what that means I'll let me take a little side trip here 10 to 1 snow means if you get one inch of liquid that's 10 inches of snow a tenth of an inch of Liquid would give you one inch of snow. So it's sort of the It's how fluffy or versus Compact or slushy the snow is And 10 to 1 is a pretty good Marginal kind of warm snow Warm being in the upper 20s over 30s snow ratio. It can be worse It can be one to eight or one to five if you're just a little above or right at freezing If you get extremely cold get down to the 20 or 15 degrees fahrenheit area Or colder this can be one to 15 because it comes down so fluffy and light so much air in it that it builds up much deeper What we see on the 10 day forecast with the canadian model Uh is a lot more snow This puts us in the it's a green is 12 to 18 inch area Now the forecast made wednesday It looks quite different We're still in that area with a bullseye of two feet in the mountains above the longmont In the higher elevations here, but the planes are very different There's a trail of half inch a half foot to a foot of snow across the northern part of the state out into Nebraska going back that heavier bound is down in southeastern colorado with less up there The planes get a lot overall, but you can see just one day how different the pattern can be We're pretty far away from The next 10 days a lot can change Especially with the cutoff low that low that's wobbling around In southern california can take another wobble and change the timing change the amount of moisture change the Availability of cold air so you can't get too married to any one of these models Forecasts I thought it would be fun to take a look at what the national weather service noa national oceanic and atmospheric administration climate prediction centers is predicting for april for the nation We're about a week into april, but We just looked at an actual model run going out We can kind of see if that still makes sense from the forecast that they made probably about a week and a half ago What they say see is with long amount here near normal conditions for temperature cooler in the northern rockies a lot warmer in the southeastern eastern part of the state the nation the Pattern that we just saw with repeated Occurrences of northwest flow over the next two weeks or plus Would put us in a lot colder regime I think so we'll have to look back and see what we see afterwards And for precipitation we're getting ripple after ripple down that northwest flow This flow coming from the northwest. That's why we call it northwest flow And that would imply a lot more moisture especially if we get an inch to two inches of liquid in just the next 10 days This is probably not going to hold up, but we'll see it's it's their their take on it All right putting the next seven days into Quick graphic here. We stay pretty mild through saturday The front doesn't come in until saturday evening Take a look at lungmontobserver.org as we get closer to saturday I'll have a more refined position of where the sun and rain showers change over to Some ice and some snow in the evening beforehand though We do have some chance of showers Especially with with some warming in the afternoon some moisture coming out ahead of that trough in the west It's it's not going to be just bone dry like it was for the last five days or so Then sunday easter. We have a lot of snow Good good couple inches healthy inches right now is what looks like Sunrise service if you're doing it in your backyard sunrise. I think it's 6 27 a.m Looks like it should be cloudy with a good chance of snow and East northeast winds at about 10 to 15 miles an hour, so it won't feel good to be outside Monday we still have an ongoing chance of snow showers Tuesday the same kind of diminishing a little then it's the storminess picks up again with another ripple coming by on Wednesday, but temperatures will be a little warmer in the day, so it might change over to rain For more local news take a look at longmontobserver.org They'll see my weather column there and you will get more frequent weather updates If any watches or warnings are issued I try to get those posted there as quickly as possible as well For longmont public media. This has been your weather forecast in longmont. I'm chief meteorologist John Nansworth. Keep looking up