 Elections to the Scottish Parliament will be the most consequential round of votes anywhere in the UK on Thursday. That's because they've been set up by all sides as a barometer for the legitimacy of a second referendum on Scottish independence. The SNP are aiming for an absolute majority to then push for a second indie vote. It's therefore unsurprising that the final leaders debate on BBC Scotland was dominated by questions about a so-called indie ref 2. This is what the SNP's Nicola Sturgeon, Labour's Anna Sawa and the Tories Douglas Ross had to say on the issue. Our manifesto is very clear. We want the next five years to focus on the national recovery, but just on that point, about the recovery. Nicola Sturgeon has led us through the pandemic and people can make the case about whether she's done that well or not. But you can't lead the recovery and also lead half the country at the same time. You either lead all the country and take us to the recovery, not half the country. You can't lead a referendum campaign and lead the recovery at the same time. It's simply not credible. They should vote for me on Thursday, safe in the knowledge that getting us through this crisis is my priority. And then you'll claim their vote as part of the mandate for indie ref 2? When we come out of this crisis, recovery and what we recover to is not some kind of abstract neutral concept. We've got to decide ourselves what kind of country do we want to be, what are the values we want to underpin that recovery, and what do we want the recovery to look like? Do we want it when built in the image of Boris Johnson and Douglas Ross and their band of Brexiteers? Or do we want it to be one that put fairness and equality and building a prosperous Scotland? If she gets a majority, she'll take her eye off the ball for Scotland's recovery, for rebuilding this country from this pandemic, and seek to hold another independence referendum. She will ask for a Section 30 order. Seek to hold is not the same as guaranteeing that it will happen. She'll seek a Section 30 order, if the Prime Minister has said it's absolutely the wrong thing to do right now, in the middle of this global pandemic to seek to divide the country all over again. And then he would then say, absolutely, the priority has to be our recovery, and Nicola Sturgeon would say, well, we'll go ahead with an illegal wildcat referendum anyway. Now, despite what Douglas Ross said there, Sturgeon has in fact ruled out an illegal referendum, Alakata Lunya. So why did Douglas Ross bring it up? Well, it's likely he was trying to cover for this tweet from the Scottish Conservatives, which caused a stir on Monday. And so the Scottish Conservatives tweeted, an SMP majority is a guarantee of another independence referendum. And the reason this raised eyebrows is because the Tories have been fairly insistent that even if the SMP win a majority, they will not get another independence referendum, because it's within Boris Johnson's power to give them permission to, he's made it very clear that whatever the results of this election, the Tories have no intention of conceding that a referendum can happen. That means that Douglas Ross now has to suggest that what they actually meant was all there will definitely be another independence referendum, because Nicola Sturgeon will do an illegal one. To discuss these issues, I'm joined now by writer and campaigner Katie Gilliglay-Swan. Thank you so much for joining us this evening. First of all, on the big picture, is it correct to understand these elections as essentially a referendum on a referendum? So a referendum on whether there should be another independence referendum? Considering the recent, the past few years, constitutional disruptions, I think that that was always going to be a part of this election. But of course, you've also got the parties determined to pose this also as an election on economic recovery and recovery more generally from the pandemic. I think that Nicola Sturgeon is walking a very fine line, because in asking for a majority based on her capacity to sort of be an experienced manager of the country and to deliver a recovery, but if they get a majority, then you do get the referendum. That seems to be saying two things, but on the other hand, you've got the Conservatives pushing their one trick, which is be afraid, be very afraid of another referendum. And that works for them. That returns a solid sort of quarter of the vote, but it's wearing very thin and Douglas Ross is no Ruth Davidson. Douglas Ross is definitely no Ruth Davidson. It seems like his campaign is completely tanking, which brings second place into play. We'll talk about that in one moment. First of all, I want to go to the polling. This is a poll aggregator from the new statesman, which they've used to project an estimate for what they think could be the seat share when we come out of this election. So they have the SMP on, in fact, exactly the same number of seats they currently have, which is 63, and which is too short of a majority. Whatever happens though, there will be a majority for independence, because you can have the SMP supported by the Greens. And my question for you, one thing that's, I suppose, been confusing me slightly in this election is why have the SMP basically allowed a narrative to form, whereby an Indie ref 2 is legitimate if they get a majority when actually to have a majority for an Indie ref 2, the SMP don't need to get a majority. It's definitely going to be the case that either the SMP get an absolute majority or there is a pro Indie majority because of the Greens. So why have they made it so binary? Either we get an absolute majority and we have an Indie ref 2 or we don't, and then potentially we don't? Why has that happened? I would say there's a few different reasons. The first one is just in terms of external legitimacy and credibility. Nicola Sturgeon is now an international figure in her own right, and there is a reality that Downing Street are much more likely to sideline the Greens if indeed they are holding that balance of a pro Indie majority within the Parliament. So there's that sort of external PR international recognition that I think is a part of the SMP's game or consideration of this. Another is the historic precedent. They didn't get the sort of majority that they did in the last election, and in 2011 they did get that majority, which was why David Cameron, part of the reason why David Cameron granted the referendum. And then finally, I think it's, you know, they are in an election. They need to mobilize their base and mobilizing their bases, you know, both votes SMP, we need to bring back as many SMP MSPs as possible. And the Greens have played a really good role in the last Parliament in pushing the SMP to be, you know, for progressive concessions in order to pass SMP budgets, and that sort of compromise on their power within the Parliament I think is something that they would be keen to avoid. And finally, when it comes to who's second place, I mean, especially in England, lots of people are interested in how Labour are going to do, because people see that a sort of recovery in Scotland is necessary if they want to get back into government. So then currently has the Tories still in second, but Labour making ground. Anas Sarwar, he's had quite a good campaign. Is that, is that the case? Yeah, I would agree. I mean, I think Anas Sarwar's credibility has definitely increased. His likability has increased as this election campaign has continued. And I think that, you know, while he sometimes does stray along the line of being a wee bit more mature and the sort of calm down guys, don't argue like this in the debates. I think he has done a really good job in balancing the sort of recognition of, you know, the respect of the democratic principle, but his own clarity of what his position is, which is he doesn't support a referendum. On the other hand, you know, I think that the road for recovery for Scottish Labour is going to be very, very long. The vast losses that they had in the heartlands of Scottish Labour, you know, are not going to recover overnight. The way that, you know, Scottish politics has worked since the 70s is that there's a predominant party. It was Labour, you know, Labour could be depended on to bring back that majority, no matter really what folks were saying. And now that's the SNP. And that took quite a few decades for the SNP to get into that position. So I think a Labour resurgence isn't on the cards. I think, you know, I'd say that Sarwar has performed much better than I was anticipating as leader anyway in the short space of time that he's been in that position.