 Okay, very good morning to you. It is Monday the 30th of November. Hope you're doing well. Had a great weekend As usual going to have a quick look around the markets and then also look at a couple of the major events happening this week And hopefully we can kind of pick out then potentially what the landscape looks like for the next five training sessions And starting off with the overnight session Quite interesting actually as you can see here from the center charts I've got the Dow and NASDAQ and the S&P 500 futures And if I was just to look at the S&P for example, and this was replicated across those three majors We had a gap up at the initial open. Let me just remove my camera for one moment to make the chart more visible But we had a gap up at the reopening of trade The initial indications when I was putting out my piece on Twitter for the week ahead was that the market was set to open up About two tenths of 1% there was some news coming out in regards to More vaccine stuff, which we'll get to in a moment. So we actually gapped up, but we hit basically this trend line I've been keeping an eye on Throughout really the initial Pfizer spike. So this chart I've been continuing to add annotations as some of the key fundamental kind of catalysts And that was that big extreme move that we had in that first Response to the Pfizer developments back on the 9th of the month. We had the retest here Back on the 24th so Tuesday last week and then this was last night We opened up we pushed up initially to that trend line and then we've just come all the way back down We've actually had a pretty sizable pullback in fact and from the high from overnight The S&P's down about 1.35% now importantly there hasn't been a singular Kind of catalyst for that no real major negative headlines But remember that it is now the end of the month. It's the last trading day of November Of course us participants who are largely out of the market since Wednesday given Thanksgiving holiday and the very quiet Friday Volume-wise that we tend to see they'll be coming back in so a lot of talk obviously on the month Then about just given the the size of the rally generally that we've had Not just in November, but of late putting us up to all-time highs if we were to look at things like the Dow for example And then a little bit of unwinding of that Book squaring of some degree wouldn't be the most surprising thing the Dow here is Already down or has been down in excess of 350 points this morning again, let me just remove my My camera feed for a moment and then we'll just draw in a bit more of a Picture of the the Dow price movement. So we hit the all-time high in the middle of last week, of course We really busted through that previous double top on the Pfizer Moderna stories Smashing threes thirty thousand in the futures at least and getting up to around that thirty thousand one six five at the high So continuation a bit of a pullback and this really is the overnight move here So it's been pretty steep as we've got through what was the low in the futures seen towards the back end of last week And quite a key area here technically I was watching in early trade here You've got the s2 level with what was the high on the 11th There's been a area of support in the middle of the month and resistance before the eventual break higher in a 23rd And we snapped through there that probably resulted in some of that Initial follow-through on that price movement. It's steadied since but we're still down beneath that area And so definitely on the downside next as I've put on this rectangle would be an error I'd be watching for the rest of the session that being that low We can see on the 17th and then that kind of range high through the 19th to the 24th before the move higher And that would be at 29 447. So yeah equities a little weak, but as I said, I don't think there's anything massively Negative that's happened. I think perhaps just a little bit of fatigue on the upside Going into month-end Would make the most sense to me at this point in time. Otherwise in the other asset classes T-notes not really doing a great deal I mean you would expect in a normal type movement for T-notes to be quite a bit higher with that equity Sell-off seen overnight, but that not the case But practically flat rough just one tick in gold was quite an interesting move That was seen in the overnight session There was that sell-off that Tim and I were talking the Amplify live community through when we saw that on Friday and remember a lot of that range break, but also the fact that Given the lower training volumes, you do tend to see kind of price movements somewhat exacerbated That was exactly what we were seeing at the end of last week when gold started to break down And then in the overnight session, we actually broke through that level of Friday's low to print the initial Intra-day low that's been seen the futures at 67 spot to worth noting overnight in Asia You did have Asian indices were generally lower the exception being China and the reason for that China's factory Activity expanded its fastest pace in more than three years their manufacturing PMI came in for November of fifty two point one against fifty one Point five expected the central bank PBOC also Unexpectedly injected funds into the financial system overnight Which typically lends its hand to being more supportive their local domestic equity market In the currency markets then just a quick look the dollar just seeing a little bit of recovery as UK European early birds come in But overall, this is a look at the US dollar index over the period of the last several days And this was that initial Pop we had on the upside when the market got down through and around this key 92 level which of course will be watching on a multi-year kind of timeframe really important support resistance area over Multiple years and every time we've got down close to that level We've seen quite a large kind of rejection and then a move up But as we've been saying in the last week or two of briefings the overall trend Continues to be at deterioration of the dollar and that's definitely what we've seen Although we get these kind of pull backs that can be quite violent the overall move has been south and then again Happening overnight as I said the dollar index just picking up a little bit. This is in the futures Looking to close the gap on the low from Friday But albeit still down around one tenth of one percent this morning. So looking at these major pairs here Both slightly supported a euro dollar then probably one that's quite interesting to watch for the week ahead Because if we put that on the daily We also have broken out of that area that was constricting price on the upside So this is looking here at the last four or five months worth of price action and that area around 1924 was quite key. We've we definitely got through there in last or the end of last week on Friday with the breakout and then Now looking to target back up around 120 Which we know is a kind of symbolic reference point for the ECB where they start to voice Concern about the strength of the euro and how that could impede then The fairly fragile recovery in Europe given the back of the fact that a number of the largest economies obviously like Germany are heavily dependent on exports Otherwise oil is another one I'm gonna bring up that chart when we get round to the headlines to have a look at because there's an OPEC meeting happening today Which is particularly important So we'll have a look at that chart in a moment So let's get straight into some of the headlines and get you up speed of what's been going on over the weekend so This was one of the main things That I saw this is in the FT and it was talking about the fact that UK is poised to become the first country to approve Pfizer and buy N-Tex COVID-19 vaccine Clearance is possible as early as this week According to people familiar with the situation quoted in the Financial Times an emergency US approval Could come as soon as the 8th to the 10th of December So hence the reason why the UK may well be first here With shipments in the US then if that approval can come at between the 8th and 10th of deck Shipments could start within 24 hours later as everything is getting prepared in advance ahead of time Although British doctors have been put on standby for a possible rollout before Christmas Anyone who saw my notes that I tweeted or I put an Amphi live the weekend on Sunday There's two points that I'm looking at I think just to be aware of and point one is Despite the high order volume So what I was reading at the weekend in regards to this specific Pfizer by the N-Tex COVID vaccine Is that there's enough with a double dose obviously for this particular vaccine to vaccinate 20 million people in the UK The thing that I wanted to point out point one then was the speed of manufacturing is likely to be slow to start and companies also Have deals to supply hundreds of millions of shots to Europe the US Japan and elsewhere globally So just to make that point more clear, although a lot of the numbers that the politicians have been putting out obviously They have a slight framing Objective they're trying to hit which is look we're gonna we're gonna order and have 20 million shots When that 20 million comes in Is a different matter as I said Especially someone like bio N-Tex they're particularly Small comparative to some of the other more matured names like your Pfizer's and the Astra's for example And so the ability for them to upscale these monumental amount of demand that's coming on given that they're right at the Front-running in this kind of vaccine race means that it's not going to be a quick process So although these these first vaccines may become available in reality is it's going to be drip-fed in over time and and that really leads me to point to which is Ministers have already said in regard to the UK at least that care home residents and workers will be the first in line to receive a vaccine followed by people aged 80 and over followed by then health care workers and then the wider population, so As you'll remember we've talked about this quite quite a few times in regards to big banks putting out their analysis But the overall adoption of a phased system. So as we said then Care home residents older people 80 plus years old then health care workers And probably those with underlying medical conditions like obesity or diabetes these types of things and then the rest of the population so this is a very Long period of time we're talking about here so Hence the reason why this just being a headline that would be an immediate positive Well, that's kind of already happened with some of the moves that we've already seen over the last few weeks in the month of November So just getting up to speed there definitely vaccine updates It's something I've continued to be very vigilant about I mean this week There certainly are some economic data points to to keep an eye out for culminating in on farms on Friday But vaccine news is always going to be important both in a positive fashion. There's any more developments in terms of Approval statuses that come in any more quality details in the second round of testing Of certain phase trialing and then if there's any negative surprises, of course something that just comes up That was not anticipated. So I definitely would remain vigilant on that front And just so you're aware over the weekend the NYC school system is set to reopen and the reason I'm just pointing that out is it is the largest of course in the US So that coming despite the closure that it saw just a few weeks ago Moving over then I'm going to talk from vaccines to COVID Government plans on how to contain the natural virus and this is looking predominantly at the UK and this has come as Boris Johnson as I'm sure you might have read has come up against great resistance from a number of conservative members in regards to how stringent then This latest tiering system that's going to be adopted post then the lockdown that we're in to end on December 2nd And the main reasoning there that they have is that it's going to inappropriately penalize certain areas Which is going to have quite devastating economic repercussions So as many as a hundred members of Johnson's conservative party are unhappy surprisingly with this three-tier system Fearing it's too harsh as a concession to persuade Tories to back the strategy The government has promised that regulations would automatically expire expire in February Under what he's calling a sunset clause before then MPs will be given a chance to vote whether to extend the rules in January at this point so worth worth keeping an eye on at the moment as Boris tries to manage his own political party Moving away from that on the Brexit side of things the saga rolls on We had a lot of commentary the person they kind of sent out to do media rounds at the weekend on Sunday It was the foreign secretary Dominic Rab He came out and said that the EU negotiators British and EU negotiators have been showing pragmatism and good faith During recent talks and there's a deal to be done Potentially this week said Dominic Rab saying he's upbeat as talks enter the final few days Negotiations they are continuing with officials. I believe face-to-face given the fact that they had to move virtual one point last week because the European official contracting COVID resulting in a lot of Social distancing and so on waiting out and in order to see that through but overall, what do I think of this? I still don't think they're going to get a deal this week. So there's many times I still don't think we're at a real pressure point where Politicians are going to fold and really major types of concessions that would constitute a deal Although I still believe that that will happen. I don't think it's going to happen as soon as this week So again, it's actually just keep an eye Looking at oil. I did mention this Briefly that we'd look at the oil chart. So before we do, let's just get up to speed and what the news flow is And a panel of OPEC plus ministers couldn't reach an agreement and whether to today January's oil output increase leaving the matter Unresolved but full of full meeting of the cartel and its allies today and tomorrow. So apparently what happened was Saudis and Russia were putting quite a lot of pressure to get an early Discussions underway yesterday, but they they found to really reach any type of coordinated agreement Now most participants in that informal online discussion on Sunday evening last night Supported maintaining production curves at current levels into the first quarter according to a delegate now That would be what markets are expecting Which is the current supply pack between OPEC plus just be rolled over for another three months effectively to cover Q1 And that of course as we know being because of the fact that COVID is still quite rampant in areas like North America But it has also led to quite strict restrictions in mainland Europe the UK and so on although those are going to be Softling over the weeks ahead is what people are anticipating nonetheless though In order to secure a firm support for oil prices They want to just roll this over for another three months anything less than that then price of oil is going to collapse pretty quickly The other thing here was that the Russian deputy prime minister and edgy minister Alexander Novak Spoken favor of postponing the supply hike. So that's a good thing Russia is incredibly important in order to backstop any deal given how large they are so the Saudis will be happy with that However, the UAE and Kazakhstan have said that they were opposed to that being the case The other key name that a lot of people tend to look at because of their lack of Deering or complying to the general supply pact is Iraq Iraq has not asked for an exemption from OPEC plus limits on the country's oil output for fear than an increase in Production might actually cause crude prices to fall which would be self-harming for them So that's continuing to total a line at least for now So what I'll do is I'll I'll update you as the morning goes on about specific dates And I'll share some of the live feeds from from the meetings that they've got With OPEC that are happening today But if we look at the chart this this definitely could be important In regard to markets have definitely priced in a rollover of the supply pact If I just make my oil chart a bit bigger for a moment So number on the daily chart We broke above that really Key area that saw a decent breakout of price action on the upside last week, which is around that summer high Which was also that March 2nd Low at the time and that cook that created it and the break above 43 78 And we ran all the way up to around 46 26 a decent push on from that point Since then though, we have backed off a little bit. You can see here A little bit of weakness seen in overnight session the oil equity correlation fairly tight at the moment tied to just general kind of economic sensitivity overall And it's come off but it has recovered and we're back down to the base of the kind of range that had been forming Since really the middle of last week after that initial breakout that we had on the downside I mean could we get back down to these lower levels and that lower level really on the daily would be quite key Which would be a firm air of support back to the initial point that created the powerful breakout Which is kind of more in a daily around 43 78 So if we start getting down to around these sorts of levels here Which is close to around the s2 and that high we handle the 24s could be quite interesting But to get down there, which is another dollar lower than where we are at the moment We're already down 83 cents. I think you've really got to start having kind of The discussions from the OPEC meeting hinting towards the fact that they're finding it hard to get a deal done If that starts to do the rounds those kinds of noises then oil I think could definitely move lower today an inability to enforce that rollover Oil's got to take back some of these recent gains But don't forget the base scenario is they do agree to the three months if David goes for six months I think now That has kind of we've moved away from six months to center around three So rolling out for six would definitely be a short-term catalyst intraday from more positive crude prices If that was to happen I'd be looking up for a quick run-up back up towards 55 71 that previous hard of 25th And what we had at the end of last week, perhaps even a push on back towards this initial high that we've seen in recent months So yeah, definitely something to be aware of as soon as today and then going forward into tomorrow as well All right, quick look at the the calendar for this week. What have we got? So one thing to be aware of Christine the guard does speak later on today at 10 a.m. European policy Center forum It is interesting from a European perspective You've got a November flash CPI Which is expected to show another decline in prices and that of course coming ahead of the December important ECB meeting This is on Tuesday session You can see here today. We've got Christine legard is speaking as I just mentioned Her and several of her colleagues Are scheduled to speak this week and this will be the last opportunity before their kind of quote silent period To signal their intentions for what they intend to do for that December meeting where the market is expected that Fairly large 500 or so billion euro top up to their current PEP Program, so be interested to keep an eye out for what she has to say Particularly in context of the fact that the dollar index at the moment is trading at its lowest level since April of 2018 Which if anything is the main reason of why euro keeps grinding up towards that key 120 area again So be interested to see if she tries to counter at that with some of her comments later on this morning Otherwise just running through this calendar. You've got the rba rate decision seemingly the previous course of actions that they've taken with rates and qb are paying off so I'm really expecting any real defensive change there We then get these manufacturing PMIs coming out on Tuesday, but these are final readings. So nothing Too shocking to be aware of there are given the final prints from November But on Tuesday, you do get the fed chairman power and treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin appear before the senate banking committee They'll also be speaking On Tuesday and Wednesday. Now, obviously this could be quite interesting because if you think about it Mnuchin has been talking about Refusing to extend the feds emergency facilities So the dynamic between them obviously is going to be quite interesting to see as they host that event Of late that has been obviously a little bit of attention because pow has definitely been wanting Although being underutilized in those tools to keep them on the table To alleviate any pent up kind of concern that the market might show under the current risks emanating from the developing covid situation in the us So that could be quite an interesting dialogue to keep an eye out for overall though Probably not expecting too much and Tuesday you start getting things like ism manufacturing. Don't forget then that means on Wednesday We get adp Then we get the non manufacturing license on thursday So the usual suite of us data that runs us in then to non farm payrolls, which is coming on friday Now headline change in payrolls is expected to show a print of 500,000 now 500,000 That's jobs created. So it's still a positive number However, that number is decelerating And that comes in step with two Increases we've seen in the week to week initial jobless claims, which is anticipated to happen again this week So how important payrolls is as an individual figure? I'm not so sure because ultimately it will probably will show a degree of job growth But in the period ahead given the fact that now we're starting to phase in Increasing amounts of lockdown as that Outbreak of COVID-19 goes from midwest america to nationwide Resulting in more people and their loss of jobs, particularly areas in like hospitality and leisure and so on Then I don't think it's that unsurprising to see this headline figure is loving So I don't actually think payrolls is that big a deal But certainly as ever it will be the main crescendo to end the week as far as the set pieces are concerned Um So that really is about it. So, you know with with payrolls then You know, I know I made here was The following that even if Do know that if there is more positive vaccine news to come Then a moderate deterioration in job growth would likely be overlooked by the market and thus That reverting back to the gulf between forward-looking markets on mainstream and a deterioration of the situation underlying in reality on Mainstream and this is what I mean What I'm trying to say was that the jobs data is going to it's going to slow If anything, it's going to get worse But it does come to context, of course the stock's being up at up at highest So we're back in that era again of that kind of disconnect being apparent between the kind of the harsh Um, kind of realities in real world terms against forward-looking markets Who are anticipating things like ECB for example to have to do more? Uh, and that being of course a very supportive factor And the final article I just quickly wanted to mention I definitely don't see this as something Tangible for right here right now, but I think it is meaningful as far as the transition going from Trump To biden The one thing to have a look at there's quite a good article on the ft today, which I'll share about georgia senate race There's two seats there and they The republicans have to win both In order then to maintain the senate not not many people have really been too focused on this But obviously if they don't and the democrats win that ties them and then the casting vote from kamala harris Obviously using democrat would then constitute a blue wave. So it definitely is something that needs watching very closely But but this is an article that I wanted to just quickly touch upon and it's about The EU seeking to forge a new alliance with the us to bury the tensions of the trump era And meet the challenges of china according to a draft plan from brussels that was circulating over the weekend so for me Some were as I've talked about in briefings over many months ago There were some speculation that china might have actually have preferred A trump second term rather than the biden victory for this very reason Is that through the era of trump protectionism? Generally had isolated the us not just against china, but Isolated itself from its other key Western allies predominantly that in mainland europe for example As well as the uk and others so here then comes a more challenging issue for for china Which I don't think is a deal breaker. I think it just Means that there they'll come up against more stern challenges and that's because if Europe and the us can unite behind a Coordinated front that's going to be much more Challenging for for china to take on that kind of long-term play That global ambition of taking over as the world leading trading partner So quite an interesting development there on that article worth having a read if you get if you get time All right, that is it. I'm going to leave you to get on with things. I'm going to wish you a great week ahead Again, I hope you had a great weekend and I'll see you same time tomorrow. Thanks very much