 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody has a great weekend or had a great weekend or is having a great weekend enjoying this unusually warm seasonal weird weather. We've been having 70s, 80s and early 90s, low 90s now for about a week. Just absolutely incredible here in New Jersey. So hopefully everybody is enjoying themselves. If you are new to the broadcast and following for the first time. Thank you very much for your viewership. Please like, subscribe and share where we can get through this journey one day at a time, one trade at a time with the unbiased fashion. So let's talk about it. If you look at the indexes last week, there's no way it's going to paint the picture. You have the Nasdaq up three tenths of a percent. You have the Dow and S&P about S&P Dow up a little bit less than a percent. You have the Dow up a little bit more than a 1% for the week. But the volatility and the random nature from Wednesday's session to Friday was just something that I said in the webinar. I don't remember if all you guys are just recent viewers of this channel, I'm going on my 24th year. I don't remember, at least off the top of my head. I don't remember the last time I saw the Qs lose the bottom of the range, close at the lowest range. The next day closed at the top of the range. And then the following day give up those gains for pretty much 85% of the day only to rally back towards the close. So absolutely wild scenarios. Usually I'm pretty good at reading what's going to happen the next day based on, well, sometimes it's just reality. When stocks close at the top of the range, you're probably going to get a lot of premium the next day to the upside. When stocks close at the bottom of the range, well, that's vice versa. But when you have a scenario of stocks going up and down, up and down, based on the previous day's close on the channel, then that sets up to be a really wild week and that's exactly what we had. So let's talk about it. Monday and Tuesday were pretty solid, right? Very solid. We had a scenario even on Tuesday on Tesla broke down, on the video broke down, a lot of the semis have break down. And this is kind of what we want to start, you know, kind of start the week or kind of reviewing the week. And we had the lowest close. You guys remember we were talking about any close below 313, right? We need 19 to the upside 313 to the downside. That was the channels. That was the range that NASDAQ was trading in. And, you know, on Wednesday's session, we came out with CPI. If you guys remember, I believe that the mean consensus was 5.1%. CPI came in at five. And what happened was the NASDAQ exploded on the initial number. And the NASDAQ pre-market went from like 315 to almost 320. And in 15, 20 seconds, as soon as they reclaimed that 319 channel, the market literally imploded. Like it was like nonstop selling into the close. And the range for that day was almost 320 pre-market to where we closed at the bottom of the range, taking out one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine days in a row. Nearly two weeks of buying action on one candle, setting up for what should have been, right, should have been a confirmation to more downside selling the next day. The following day, right, came out PPI reading. Now, the PPI reading, the CPI reading, the ABC reading, everything else in between, at some point it gets, you know, too, just too much. You know, it feels like this data were a Fed speaker every 30 seconds of the day. So I didn't, excuse me, if I didn't care about, you know, the amount of detail that was going to come out the CPI. But the market did. And that's what we always talk about. It's not, you know, the actual data. It's not the actual news. It's how the market reacts to it. So Wednesday, the market completely sold off the data, even though it came in better than expected reading. The market completely sold off the data, closed at the bottom of the range. The next day, we started to sell off a little bit, got a little bit stronger. And then we closed, literally closed and fit cleaned up the whole gap that we lost the previous day to close at the top of the range above 319. Naturally, we should have gapped up, right? Naturally, right? Because again, we just closed at the top of the range and we just engulfed the previous candle that engulfed, oh, by the way, the previous nine days. So logically, what does the market do? The market implodes at the open, right? We implode at the open and the cues go all the way down to like 315 and change. And you're like, what the hell is going on here? It's like, you know, what is absolutely happening that you don't have a, you know, you don't even have a reference point to even go back in the history and say, hey, I remember this, I saw this. Again, I don't remember, I don't remember a three day sequence like this in a very, very long time. And what happened was that they finally got bought, but this is after three, four consecutive lower lows, just because the market just kept taking out lows, taking out lows, taking out lows in all the stocks. The majority of stocks that were super strong on the previous day were just losing their channels. Finally, the market woke up towards the end of the day and you can see this pretty aggressive, you know, pretty aggressive move back up towards the end of the day and almost reclaiming back that 319 channel and closing the candle green, which means the candle, the market closed higher than it opened. So just an absolutely insane week. You had stocks going from breakout to breakdown, from breakdown to breakout. I mean, absolutely insane. And the one thing I always tell traders, usually I have a reference point. Again, almost 24 years is a long time. I've seen a lot of, I see a lot of sequences, a lot of news events, geopolitical, you know, running gamut, but it's very rare that you've seen stocks trade at the top of the channel, close at the top of the channel, close back at the bottom of the channel, close back at the top channel, break down lower only to reclaim back the five day moving average. But that's exactly what we had. And again, if it confused me, right? If it confused me and I had really no answers to what was going on, or at least what we were seeing, you know, the pivots are pivots. You know, you're still going to find pivots just because intraday cycles are going to give you opportunities. But if I can't really come up with an answer and say, hey, this is what's going on here, I get it, man. I sympathize with the newer trader trading a year, two years, three years. Because again, it was crazy. It was ridiculous. And the price action, as people say a lot of times, doesn't make sense. And then my reply is usually, well, it doesn't need to make sense. Well, here is the ultra, you know, the ultra example of it doesn't need to make sense. But then here we are. And if you look at the final tally, you will never demonstrate how wild and crazy the market is. But when you look at the close at the end of the day, the queues did reclaim back the five and the 10 day moving average going into Monday's session. So again, I think, right? I think you have to give the bulls the benefit of the Dow. Right? And I don't want to say that with tongue in G, but that's kind of how the last three days have played out. Going, well, the more important part of kind of what we saw is not the data. When banks started reporting, and obviously our earning season is here, banks started reporting on Friday. You had Wells Fargo, you had JP Morgan, and you had Citibank. Like I was saying in the webinar before, the bank earnings, if you look at all these stocks, you look at every bank stock, right? JP and Citibank and Wells Fargo. There wasn't a lot of excitement about the banks, right? Again, not even have anything to do with the bank failures that we've seen the last month or so. I think there just wasn't a lot of enthusiasm going into the earning season. The banks, there wasn't a lot of expectations. So I kept on reiterating the point. I felt unless they came out with something really horrific, like Citibank was going to say, we're closing our doors. Right? I thought the reaction would have been muted to positively up. And that's exactly what we got. Again, I didn't anticipate this strong of a reaction, especially JP Morgan, it was up almost 10 points. Citibank's strong, strong move here as well, up a couple of points. And you had Wells Fargo. You know, Wells Fargo actually had a gap in crap scenario, but their earnings weren't that bad. So it's actually a good thing that the market is discounting kind of earnings, especially for the banks, especially what we did go through with the regionals only a month from now. But now this sets the tone to not that the data is out of the way. Now we're concentrating on earnings, at least for this short term. For Monday's session, you have, just kind of look at the calendar here. For Monday's session, you really don't have anything significant. Tuesday, we have Netflix, right? Netflix comes out with earnings. On Wednesday, you have more bank, you have, excuse me, on Tuesday, you have more bank earnings with Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, but Netflix definitely kicks off earnings for high beta. And here's a very weird stock, right? You know, we've seen some pretty big moves on Netflix in the last several weeks, just out of nowhere. And, you know, one day it'll be up $14, the next day it'll be down 10, and you're looking like there's no news to... I mean, I think something internally is happening, and I think the people who are in the know are positioning that way, but it's just something is odd. I wouldn't be surprised if there is, you know, outside of earnings, and again, unless they come out with something on their conference call on Tuesday, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's some sort of really major PR that's coming out. It's very, very odd to see just random days, Netflix up 10 and then down 10. It just doesn't make any sense, but again, I guess we'll see what's happening on Tuesday for earnings. This week, again, big names. You got Wednesday, you got Tesla. Tesla has been in deep doo-doo. Right, I think that's the best way of saying it. Ever since the last 50-day moving average, the predominantly strong days and expansion days have been to the downside. They report on Wednesday we saw a lot of insiders selling from Elon Musk's brother. Okay, I don't know if that's going to result in anything going into earnings, but on the surface this obviously is a bare flag. Obviously, if they come out with something really exceptional on Wednesday, technicals are not going to matter. It's all going to be about earnings, but at least on phase value going into Monday's session, I want to keep an eye on the bottom range here and Tesla because if it starts breaking down the bottom range, maybe there's a couple of days sell-off before they come out with earnings, but this is a very odd Monday going into because of the volatility, because of the price action both long and short or up and down. I don't even want to say long and short, open down. There's going to be a lot of disconnect within beta, which is very, very surprising. So for example, when you look at AMD, AMD does not look great. It absolutely does not look great. It's just sitting here at the bottom of the range, did not rally back with any of those stocks, and then you can turn around and then you turn around, for example, a stock like Google. Google is looking phenomenal. It's probably one of the better setups going into the week. You have NVIDIA, for example. It looked like it was about the fall off the earth this week, and then there was a Friday PR, and congratulations to all you guys who put that sneaky pivot from that to 6560s. Nice little move on the, I guess, Tesla PR on Friday. But you could see here, this thing was literally a day away from literally losing the 20-day moving average, and that PR kind of saved it on Friday. You have, for example, again, just to show you kind of a little bit of a disconnect, kind of a disconnect how you see on certain charts here. This is another perfect example. We have said Tesla looks weak. Look at a stock like Lululemon. Lululemon has now been going through distribution mode for about three weeks now. I have to assume if the market holds up, again, if there's so many ifs now with all this volatility, but if the market moves up here, guys, watch Lulule for the next couple of days. If this thing could finally get above these earnings highs and confirm, maybe it could finally start getting a two, three, four-day multi-day run on the stock. It's been consolidating a little bit too long than normal, but hey, if this thing finally starts waking up, and it did take out three days worth of selling here, if it finally wakes up and takes out the earnings high, maybe you could finally get next leg up. A couple of smaller price names I like. Look at the stock skin, right? This was one that we mentioned a couple of weeks ago, never confirmed, but this thing is starting to putting a long base coming from February. A very, very long base. If this thing just gets above this long base, I think it could finally wake up. ETNB, another former runner had a big, big four-day move, came back in, if you draw the trend line here, it broke its trend line here for the last couple of days. Keep an eye on this thing. If this thing can confirm the 10-day moving average, again, for all you guys who are brand new, the five-day moving average, for me, is short-term sentiment, and the 10-day, once it gets above the five, is called the birth of the trades, basically the birth of the short-term, the birth of the short-term potential run-up. So if it can get above the 10-day moving average, this thing has a lot of room, so definitely keep an eye on that as well. So going into this week, when we talk about you have to be prepared, you've definitely got to be prepared. Obviously, we want to watch the pre-20s, 30s level, there was Friday's highs on the queues. You know, the market was ripping on Friday until that Michigan data that came out at 10 o'clock, they're really reverse things, but if you look at stocks from Thursday going to Friday's session, after they gap down, they had a strong rally, and the Michigan data did knock down a lot of them only to recover the following day. So I think this is super-duper important to be very, very prepared on both sides of the market. Usually I say, you know, be prepared. I think you really have to emphasize that point going into Monday. I do want to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt, but there's definitely some strong-looking sell patterns out there or sell formations that if they do confirm, especially AMD or a name like Tesla, we don't know if they will, but you have to be prepared for it. We can get some definitely good value on both sides. The big number on the queues going into this week, we have $320.36, that was the top of Friday's channels, and then you have this area on March the 4th highs of $321.60, and if they finally get above that $321.60, it should start another leg up, and obviously that's probably going to be complimented that it complimented in between all these technology earnings. So Tuesday we have Netflix to kick off beta earnings. Wednesday, they highly, once again, anticipated Tesla earnings, and then we will go on from there. But so far, good news is bad news. Bad news is good news and vice versa. So yes, is the market a little crazy right now? I think that's an understatement, but you know what? Usually these things will die down. Organic option flow, equity flow and everything else in between will start being more orderly. Okay, that's the best way we have to think of it. Again, always remember guys, you sign up once you invest your first dollar into the stock market. You just then signed up for a bull market, a bear market, a distribution market, a chop market, a supermarket, but any type of market you want, you signed up for it. So, you got to take the good, you got to take the bad, you got to eat it all, digest it, and hopefully something nice and shiny comes out of the other side of the end. Guys, have a great remainder of your Sunday. God bless. I'll see you all on the field tomorrow. Take care.