 Lleiddo i'r ddodd yn eu gael y ddodd o'r fferm, ac mae'n cymrydm yn dda i'r gweithbeth yma, a'r mewn gwneud. Yn ffodus mewn ac yn meddwl, yn y chargeschau yn un arferwad, mae'r ddodd ar gyfer ymarferwad yr oedd yn gwelltyniol, yma, mae'n cymryddon ar gyfer y ffrwng gyda'r maes ydydd, i'r corffiadau cynnig o'r unrhyw dechau, mor oedd yn fwyaf ar gyfer cyntaf, ac mae'n mynd i'n mynd i'n ddweud 3. Yn ymhwyno, ymhwyno, ac ymhwyno'r gweithio. Ond, mae'r gweithio yn ymhwyno, yn ymhwyno, yn ymhwyno i'r gweithio ymhwyno. Ond, mae'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'ch gweithio. Mae hynny'n gweithio'r tîchwch ar y ddweud o'r event i ddweud, Mae'r tynnu'r gwleidioedd ymddurau yn ystod o'i cyfnod o'r ysgol. Dyma'r ysgol, mae'n ddigwyddiolio'i hefyd chi'n ei wneud i'r llyfradau cyfnodol, gyda'r rhain gwleidio ar gyfer maen nhw, a'r cyfnodol a'r llyfradau a'r adegau. Ond wedyn y teimlo, mae'n grwyffydd yng Nghymru sy'n gweithio'r fforddau sydd wedi'i cyfnodol, a ydych chi'n gwybod yn sianolio, a'r stymau oedd yn hyfforddiadau oherwydd, ond we'r cyfrifiadau yn ddodol, a'r cyfrifiadau yn Llywodraeth. Roeddwn i'r ddweud o gymryd yng Nghaerweddol yn Llywodraeth, ac yn ddim yn ddodol yn y ffrifio, yw cyfrifiadau yn ymweliad â'r fforddau. Cyfrifiadau yn lwylo gwybod yn y Cymru, ac yn y Llywodraeth yn y Llywodraeth. Dyna yw'rrif i amser, a mae'r rhwng ynnw'n crechio, mae'n ei chymreivu, mae'n rhaid i'ch gael. Mae'n rhwng yn ffawr iawn i ni'n brif, mae'n lle bryddoedd yn y gallu hanesfyrth o'i trefnod. Mae'r pwysig Professor DSRI oedd yn brineur rwy'n deimlo, ond mae'n ddewch i'r CDE ac mae'n ddug i'u chyfle i'r cyffrediant o'r Phrifeswerthol ysgrifennu yw Oxford. gan oedd wedi cyfnodwch ac yn meddwl Ebogwrt Gwyd-Gaeth rhagorio, ac mae'r llyfr yn rhaid i ti wedi gweld â'r bobl sy'n dros ffordd ddod. Rhaid i chi'n meddwl, maen nhw'n gwneud am y bobl yw'r Ythgrifennu Llywodraeth Cymru. Dyma'r llyfr yn mae'r bobl a'r Llywodraeth Llywodraeth Cenedddiau a rhai o'r llyfr cymrydd. Yn amlwg, mae'n ffnodd i'r newydd o pobl yn y pwg. gall Cenporllig Gy�fnolau hynny, dal yn agon ni, mae tu loediau'r datry adoptor hredgerach. Mae'n sefydlu hyngOr agon ni poisitude thoseiau a boedd nhw bod fade defnyddio cwyman lle, ac mae'n rhoi holleg y mor cerso zdol o'i archrofiadethe gan y bydd gyntaf, ac es workplace fi ddechしま향 yn ychydig syr. interests iawn am yw loc gonebebod,接i ychydig wedi chi dweud y hristdhaff iawn, mae'n rhoi e fo wnaeth digin i anym just��겠습니다ame ac mae awe현 ac efo mwynhe지만ig ar gyfer dechannu ac yn ystod yn ymweld, mae'n fath o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud. Rwy'n fawr, i'n fawr. Rwy'n fawr, i'n fawr, i'n fawr o'r ddweud o'r ddweud. Rydyn ni'n gweithio'r carte ar gyfer uniseff yma, yn ymddiad yw, mae'n cymryd 41 oes o'r ddweud yn y cyfnodig ymddiad, yn y fawr ymddiad yw'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud. Yn wychbeth, ond yn edrych yn deall i, y maen nhw'n gyda ni'n cofio'r gwerthu bod yw'r cyfrifau'r gweld yn drug wedi'u cyfrifau'r gweld yn cyfrifau'n gweld yn cyfrifau'r gweld. Mae'r cyfrifau sy'n gynyddoedd fydd y syngwyr arall yn y sefydliadau a'r hefyd i gyflym, i gilydd, i gwerthu a ddiweddol i gafoddiol, i gydigfnod i g bordernyddiaeth. Ysbeth yw'r bwg yw cyfnod hynny o'r umser o gweithio 11 o'r gennych, a gael i'r ymweld i'r cychwynig hynny yw'r ysgolwyr. Felly ydych chi'n gweithio am y gweithio, ac mae'n ffawr i'w hunud â'r ysgolwyr a'r uniseff ac yw'r ysgolwyr i'r yr uniseff a'r bwysig am y myneddio i'r erioed i'r ysgolwyr. ac yn ymlaen i unisef studiwch ysgrifennu'r arloeddau yn Llyrgrifennu. Mae'n meddwl amser am eu cyfrifio, amser i gael y cyfrifio a'r rhaglion, amser i gael'r cyfrifio, i 11 oed. Ac i gael ei wneud i gael eich bod yn fwy gwyllt o'r hwn. Mae ydych chi'n credu i'n pwysig o'r ysgrifennu ymddangas ysgrifennu analitigol, gyda i'n meddwl i'n meddwl o'r hyn. i'n credu'r llaw sy'n ffordd i'r cyffredig yw'r cyfyng ond y gallwn i'n meddwl i'n meddwl i'r ddiwrnod oherwydd i'n mynd i'r llwyddo i'r ffordd i'r Fyllteid. Ond mae'n meddwl i'n meddwl i'n meddwl i'n meddwl i'n meddwl i'r bobl yn oedrwyddiadau i'r dda'r amser o'r cyllidau o'r cyllidau ei wedi'i gofodol o'i gweithio ar y cyllidau sefydliadau. Dwi'n edrych chi'n ei wnaeth y gallwch chi'n meddwl i'r pins yw ychydig o radiolio i'r awr o'r cyllidau? across these countries. Now the complicating factor of course is how you're trying to measure child poverty and well-being in the first place and a lot of what I'm going to talk about is based on looking at the income of the households the children are living in and looking at measures of material deprivation for those households. Alas mostly not for the children specifically but for the households on the presumption that if the if the adults in the household are reporting serious deprivation that's going to impact on the children. There is some information for some countries specifically about the children but not enough to do this in a really firm to compare them in a really firm way and but the preamble has to be about how you measure poverty in terms of income because many of us spent many a long year arguing for poverty thresholds to be framed in relative terms so that if the average or the middle of the distribution moves up then over time it makes sense to think that people's expectations about what's acceptable normal adequate any of those words and that that's going to adjust over time too so the fact that you're not living that you don't have to go out the back to an outdoor toilet you know that would have been a significant improvement in the in the 50s and 60s and 70s but now our standards are very different and and that's still some that that approach is still an important component of how poverty gets measured and it gets labeled things like at risk of poverty in european context um but but of course that that wasn't designed to deal with a situation where average income collapses as it as it did in some countries in the crisis so what i'm going to use in talking about income for households with children is what get called anchored poverty thresholds so that means that you set the poverty threshold in the initial year and and as it happens they're being set these are the the average in or the the middle of the distribution the median in the country in question before the crisis and then they're operated not in line with the median because that's very often falling but in line with prices so the threshold is retaining its purchasing power so we're looking at real incomes as they get labeled so what happens if you look at a bunch of countries uh and you compare them so i i as i was saying to tony i think this is probably a record for me in terms of the number of slides because i've only got two so one of them relates to income poverty as i've just defined it so it's the proportion of children living in households that were below 60 of the median in 2008 and below a similar threshold through these other years indexed to prices but not to not to the median and then just to see if it tells the same story what happened to the proportion of children who were in households where the adults were reporting severe material deprivation which again is a is an EU measure now let's come back to sorry just to make the point that if you measure poverty in the traditional old pre-crisis way using relative income poverty thresholds nothing much happened in many of these countries because the threshold adjusted through the crisis so it's sort of it's it's pretty much nothing to see here whereas as you can see here um you get very different trajectories across these countries if you use this anchored or real income threshold now i've ordered these roughly speaking from best performing to worst performing with Ireland not ranked at the bottom but you can make up your own mind about how you think we rank so just just to talk through what how how were these experiences so different and why does Ireland fit where where it fits so starting with Sweden um you you will see that there was almost no impact there was no discernible impact of the crisis on Swedish children in terms of the incomes of their households and going to the deprivation measures things improved over this period now that's not because they didn't have a crisis but they had a very very uh quick bounce back and the Swedish contributors to the book point out that in a sense they had their crisis in the 1990s when they had a very severe financial and then economic crisis of pretty much the sort that that that we then and many other countries experienced in 2008 they had had their crisis and that's why child poverty in Sweden before the crisis was as high as it is there you might think well it's still the lowest on the table but it's a heck of a lot higher than it was in Sweden back in the 80s and early 90s so it jumped up in the crisis that they had in the 90s but they had bailed out their banks they didn't make the same mistakes again and they didn't have the crisis that other countries did plus they had a more resilient social transfer system than many others although interestingly not as not as robust and resilient and generous as it had been in the 90s so they they came out of that crisis with much higher poverty and much weaker social protection than they had had but that was starting from an extremely high base so what about Germany though it's sort of interesting in that Germany doesn't have that level of social protection that the Sweden does and yet we see no impact so how did how did they manage that and let's just check that on the deprivation measure again things actually improved rather than got worse through the crisis so what's what's what's the trick in that case well there were two two key components and sorry I should say this is in a context where the social protection system there has also been weakened in recent years more recently than in Sweden but as as a result of reforms that Kara Tröder now gets blamed for as opposed to uh he used to get the credit for um he gets blamed for the reforms in the early 2000s that uh flexibilize the labour market and weakened social protection but despite that income poverty and deprivation went down measured this way so the two two crucial ingredients were fiscal stimulus and job sharing in in a very structured way as many of you know the the German the large unions and employers with very substantial encouragement and subsidisation from the state essentially introduced highly structured part-time working to get through the crisis so unemployment didn't rise so if unemployment doesn't rise and incomes are boosted so your employment hours might fall you don't become unemployed and there's some compensation for the state both for the employer and for the employee to fill the gap and again nothing nothing very much in in the way of an impact on poverty but not because they didn't have a crisis but because when the crisis happened they did something about it both in terms of macroeconomic stimulus and in terms of labour market intervention and they have a pretty robust social transfer system not as good as it used to be or it's sweden but pretty robust belgium a rather similar story i won't go into it again nothing no no increase in poverty or deprivation much and a combination of fiscal stimulus and some job sharing and protection of employment through the crisis and a boosting of social transfers to to to fill the gap for the rest now the uk then is is you could you could argue about whether you want to put the uk or the us next in the ranking for reasons that i'll come to but if you look at the uk perhaps surprisingly and i think it was perhaps surprisingly for the authors of the chapter in the book and the you don't see a sharp uptake in income-based poverty for children in the uk up to 2015 now if i could do this right you you do see a jump up in deprivation that that's hard to unpick though because unfortunately they changed the survey so these european numbers should come with a health warning that you don't often get enough attention paid to that says break in the series it's in this very small print in the footnotes but they switched from one survey to another in the gap between 2008 and 2012 and i think that's significantly responsible for that that jump and and that's that's partly because again at the onset of the crisis there was a substantial fiscal fiscal stimulus for which the Labour Government didn't get much credit from the voters but which did help to stave off the worst effects of the crisis and the while unemployment went up it it came down again reasonably fast and was mostly concentrate or was more more heavily concentrated in in those you didn't have children and so you didn't have quite the impact in the uk that i think analysts had been expecting now there's lots and lots and lots of health warnings about this in the sense that what the coalition government and then what more particularly the David Cameron Tory government had started into was a series of welfare cuts that were projected to have very marked negative effects on households with children and that if you look at projections for this going five years into the future you you get really big increases in child poverty because effectively they they have they they cut some of the welfare rates and froze the rest so that they would not be indexed as prices went up sterling has fallen because of brexit so prices are going up a lot more than had been anticipated and one of the big challenges for the government government is whether they can walk away or ease that austerity but interestingly even the labour manifesto didn't say it was going to tackle this they were that it was it was in some sense that the dog that didn't bark the promise they didn't make was to index welfare rates and not not have this austerity focused very specifically on working age rather than benching welfare recipients so what about the us us it's sort of interesting in that i think if you had started probably when we started into this as a collaborative exercise and your usual presumption is you used to seeing the us at at the high end of all these rankings as they feature in the high end of the unicef report card you used to thinking that the us is going to do worst on anything to do with poverty but it doesn't um poverty not measured the way it gets measured in the us which is a very specific way they have they are unusual in having a long-standing national poverty measure which is a good thing but it's a very odd measure and it's it has all sorts of flaws in it and if the the researchers who did the us chapter in this book tried to measure poverty the way it's measured in these european countries and this is the best they could come up with that there was some very modest uptake from from a very high level a very modest uptake in poverty in the us at the onset of the crisis now that it's it's it's staying up but uh and they don't have deprivation measures of the sort that we have in for european countries so what what happened there if they if they're if they have such a patchy and poor welfare system as we tend to think they have how come poverty child poverty didn't go up a lot more well again two reasons one is fiscal stimulus and again obama is another another politician who doesn't get enough credit for the the fiscal stimulus that made all the difference to the impact of the crisis um but also they they intervened to adapt the welfare system temporarily for the scale of the increase in unemployment that that occurred despite the fiscal stimulus so crucially um welfare entitlements tend to be low but they got extended your your your social insurance entitlement uh got extended in a number of steps so that uh essentially those who were affected could float through with some level of support and certainly much higher than would have been on a on a pure means test of basis they could get insurance related payments to get through a period of unemployment and then the economy started recovering and unemployment started coming down so there there are the countries where i think you could say um child poverty on either the basis of income or deprivation um given that this was the biggest recession since the 1930s um these these countries proved pretty resilient um so now we go on to it in some sense the other half um where where we see countries that really did much less well so these are these are countries that were certainly much more seriously damaged economically by the crisis um including bank bailouts of course um so the decline in GDP per head in these countries so we're talking about spain greece uh and i could have italy on here as well um spain greece italy in ireland they took a bigger hit but the impact was much more pronounced in terms of child poverty so you see pretty sizable increases against this real income measure where in spain child poverty is going from 27 to 38 percent um in greece collaboratively from 23 to 56 and in ireland initially from 18 to 28 so that's a very big increase and more or less you see a similar pattern for deprivation based measures where you see very substantial increases for spain and greece greece ago now it's gone up two and a half times um and this is i should say this is this is what the EU label severe material deprivation so this this is this is not um in any sense uh to be taken lightly and in ireland interestingly what you see is as with the income based measure you see an initial sharp rise a doubling um but but by 2015 a substantial decline so that's where obviously ireland is very different to spain greece or italy which i just didn't put on that so in in in in spain initially uh things pretty much kept getting worse until very recently um as as this shows and have only started to improve in spain in the last nine months or a year and haven't really started to improve in italy and in greece they're getting worse and worse um in ireland that's not the case things have been getting better as economic growth picked up and employment started to fall and they're continuing to get better and uh the while these are the latest comparative numbers that we have um national numbers suggest that this improvement has continued to happen so so why why has ireland done i'll wrap it quite quickly why has ireland done much less well than what you might call the top half of the table but rather better in in recovery than the uh Mediterranean countries i think i think two two two central reasons um one is the robustness of the social transfer system which you know gets ranked by the ocd in the u as among the most effective in addressing immediate declines in income now that doesn't mean it's particularly generous but it does mean that there aren't a lot of holes in it and that when when you when you lose your job crucially uh the uh transfer system is there to support the household and not not very many fall through the cracks i mean there were some there were some specific types of households that that became obvious during the crisis as potentially falling through the cracks but compared to the Mediterranean countries we have a pretty universal and comprehensive system and that brings out that that these these countries Italy Spain um Portugal and Greece have highly patchy underdeveloped um ineffective social transfer systems not only are there lots of holes in them but uh where where where they're generous they're very generous so it's not it's not even that there's there's holes and a generally low base there's a there's an allocation that makes no sense in terms of where the money is being spent versus where the need is so these these gaps are much bigger than the gaps you would see if you were comparing social expenditure levels because the money isn't spent very sensibly now so some some many of these countries have been very seriously trying to address this and improve their social transfer systems but of course trying to do that in the teeth of a deep recession is enormously difficult um and it's it's in some sense surprising that made the progress that they've made um but the other reason why Ireland is different of course is that we've had a recovery that they haven't had um that we've now had very rapid economic growth for three or four years and unemployment has come very significantly down and that took the pressure that has served to take the pressure off the social transfer system and that's just not the case in those other countries and it's particularly not the case in Greece and I should have marked the page but my my Greek colleague has has a heartfelt statement in the Greek chapter along the lines of um if if if if any other country had had to cope with the decline in income the Greece has had to cope with it wouldn't have mattered how developed their social transfer system was it just would have been swamped and I think that's absolutely true and and in some sense while Ireland is a very interesting case and one we're particularly interested in if you were to come away with one message from this book it's uh that Greece is I mean you just you just have to look at these deprivation numbers uh this is severe deprivation for households with children now I mean as as I stop you might like to look at the top line there and see just how low deprivation is for households with children in Sweden despite the fact that their income poverty rate is significantly higher than it was but the gulf between Sweden and Greece is is in some sense the big picture message from this and apart from our our local concerns I feel like