 Right? We have a definitive area that if the bulls lose for tomorrow or whatever the case may be in the next couple of days, we're going to really, really swan dive. Again, there's nothing. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of a Wednesday edition of the Access a Trader.com Nightly Update Show. Hope everybody is doing well. Just to remind you, because I get this question all the time, Thursdays, which is tomorrow. That's my usual night off. So there are no nightly updates on Thursday unless one of my kids saw like a sporting event or something that I couldn't get out of during the middle of the week. And then I record one on Thursday. So just as FYI, there will be no video tomorrow night. So let's talk about the tape. You're not going to really get a good feel today of what the market did and did not do, right? If you look at the scoreboard today, nothing is going to raise an eyebrow. The Dow up three tenths of a percent, S&P flat, NASDAQ flat, and the Russell lost one and a half percent. The problem with that statement is if the bulls wanted to fight, this was the day for it. Yesterday, it kind of just kind of going back two weeks, right? Two weeks it took to lose the 20-day moving average. Before yesterday, it took two days to lose the 20-day moving average. We talked about the scenario, how incredibly sell bias. That was a pretty big signal. And we were hoping for a little bit of a gap up today, right? We talked about the names we wanted to view for today. Nvidia, AMD, Tesla, although Amazon and Meta held. I still like them for tomorrow. We really wanted a situation that the bulls gapped up today, right? Gapped up today after a 330-point decline and NASDAQ gets stuffed into supply. Start taking down yesterday's channels and hopefully get a swan dive. And again, we'll get into the individual pivots in a second. But this is how we were literally lined up for the whole morning. There was nothing more than look at beta. You don't need to be creative with stocks. You don't need to look at third-tier stocks, fourth-tier stocks, all these other things. You want to look at the names that have the highest probability of an average true range expansion if they lose the levels. And again, we'll get to them individually in a second. But what the bulls did today was exactly what we wanted, right? You had a little bit of a gap up today in some names, a small little gap down on others, but still well above the previous range. And the only question that we wanted, because I definitely knew I didn't want to buy stock today, the only question we had going into today was how many of these things were going to confirm. And we got our answer right from the word go. If you look at these candles, and again, I only put five pivots on the feed today. If you look at the pivots, right? If you look at the 60-minute candles today, this is all you needed, right? This is all you needed. These opening range channels were huge. Tesla destroyed, right? Netflix destroyed. Navidia, right? Navidia destroyed. AMD destroyed. So that's all you need, right? You don't need to be creative in certain situations. From the technical point of view, though, the bulls did hold on to the 10-day moving average, right? Everybody see that? So we lost the 20, lost the five. We tested the 10, lost the 10, reclaimed the 10. And now we have a definitive bottom, right? We have a definitive area that if the bulls lose for tomorrow or whatever the case may be in the next couple of days, we're going to really, really swan dive. Again, there is nothing below the 10-day moving average. The next measure potential is going down to 269. So if the cues start losing, you know, 281 on a close, man, you got 17 points of downside ahead of you. Listen, is it possible we rally tomorrow? Of course, again, there's nothing in the cards that always say everything has to go straight down. But that's the whole point. The only way I can see myself getting bullish again, you know, is if we start reclaiming back the 20-day moving average that we lost yesterday. And sometimes that's that. And if you look at a lot of charts tonight, you'll see that a lot of stocks kind of bounce back from morning lows. And that's okay. But you also see a lot of stocks that didn't. And if you look at today's action, the weakness today, right? The downside was carried by the cruise liners, right? You had CCL, you had RCL, a lot of weakness. The semiconductor names that we've been talking about, definitely the weakest group in the video. And you had your AMDs of the world. And you had your AMAT, which I kind of like for tomorrow. I'll give you guys a couple of ideas going into tomorrow's session. But that's kind of what we are up in. Even when we were up today, 30, 40 points on the Nasdaq, I kept on saying, well, if you're an investor, right, or even in a trader who just trades in today, how can you turn around and say this is a good day? If yesterday we lost 330 points on the Nasdaq, and we're only up 30, that's before the Nasdaq went red and we closed the day rent. So I think simplicity sometimes the way you look at things is the most important thing. And again, for me, again, like I said, for me to get bullish, we'd have to reclaim at least 290 on the close on the Qs. But I'll tell you one thing, if we get a close below 281 tomorrow, and that's the 10-day moving average, this is a wrap. This is a wrap, and this is a wrap for 17 points of downside. Again, maybe not in one day, right? Maybe not in two days, but that's kind of where the strength and the weakness is going to lie. And again, when you go through multiple charts today, especially in the Nasdaq, you'll see there's a lot of names that look like they're about to roll over. I mean, look at Google, right? Look at Google. Google just got survived by the 10-day moving average. If Google fails, right? If Google fails the 10-day, look how much room you have. I think they split July the 15th. Speaking of split, you had Shopify, right? First day after the split, well, again, not a lot of great response with down to 67% first close below the 10-day moving average. I like Shopify. This thing starts losing today's channel tomorrow. I mean, look how much room you have. You have room down to $29. And now the fact that the stock is a $30 stock, it's going to be much more liquid. If you see how Shopify traded today, it traded $0.23 spreads instead of $2.03 spread, $100 shallot. So even if it turns into something like an Amazon, at least they'll be able to be traded on a daily basis instead of birthdays, holidays, and special occasions. And again, anything that close below the 10-day, I'm definitely, definitely watching. Amat, I like for tomorrow as well, right? First close below the 10-day moving average. All Amat has to do is lose this little channel here, and this thing goes lower. A name, for example, let me just give you guys one more. A name, for example, let me see what else I like for tomorrow. Look at Twitter, man. First stock that's supposed to get taken over and everything is approved and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. We saw a bunch of 35 weeklies coming in with size. Again, first close below the 10-day moving average. Again, listen, you could take things on face value, but if they're telling you the deal is approved and everything is all great, why are they coming in for 35 puts, weekly puts when the deal was done at $54.20? Again, I'm not the smartest guy in the world, so what I see, and I kind of react to that. So look, I think the value, the values to the downside, even a name like Rivian, right? Even a name like Rivian. Look at this chart. You're not going to see this thing very, very obvious, but look how many times it held the bottom range here. This thing starts losing the bottom range, this thing is going to go lower. So even if we rally tomorrow, look, unless I find a range somewhere, a sneaky something for cash flow, like a Tesla, I couldn't care less if this market rallied tomorrow, 100, 200 points. Makes a difference to me because if again, if the NASDAQ, the majority of their members are on the lower range or in the middle of the range and they can't rally, if the indexes rally, I'm a very patient man. I don't need to go bulls deep tomorrow. I can wait till Friday with option expiration, which is the most aggressive day anyway, and there's a high probability of their betting in one direction, predominantly for the whole week, it's probably going to get carried out on Friday's action. I'm sell biased as far as setups. If the market rallies tomorrow, 100, 200 points, God bless, I have zero, zero interest in the upside until they reclaim the 290 level. That's the discipline. Maybe it'll take something for a scalp tomorrow, quick scalp, blah, blah, blah, to the upside if the market is strong, but I'm literally 100% sell biased as far as setups going into tomorrow. If there's something on the upside that we've set an alert for, God bless, then again, that is the discipline, letting everything play out. Again, you don't need to trade every single day because the markets open doesn't mean your theory is going to play out. Again, I'm not going to go against price action, but again, I'm very, very patient to see that price action play out just like we talked about today. Let's talk about today super aggressive guys, and this is what I keep on referring to a premium session. The biggest average to range are always beta stocks. It's the high beta mega cap stocks. Why? Because they have the biggest range. Somebody today asked me, hey Dan, what do you think of Intel on the downside? Again, there's nothing wrong with Intel. There's absolutely nothing wrong with Intel. If you look at Intel, it's a semiconductor. It went down today. Look how much it was down. Everybody see how much it was down? 50 cents. Now look at the video. Look at the video. One point in the video was down nine. Look at AMD, right? Look at AMD. AMD at one point was down four. Tesla at one point was down 28. So my point is when you get a premium setup and everything looks like it's about the flush, why fight with the one that you're going to fight with for 40, 50 cents if you can get the one that potentially could go 10, 15, 20 dollars, right guys? So that's what we talk about a window. That's what we talk about a premium hand. Yes, can a stock like Rivian go down 100%, but if you have exactly the same setup as Rivian as you do on Tesla, well, why the hell are you going to fight with Rivian for 50 cents when you can make $20 on Tesla? That's all I kind of meant by, you know, choose your battles. Choose the ones that will give you the biggest average to range and you can kick down that, you know, that window that you have during the day and just take advantage of the violence and that's exactly what happened today. So let's talk about this. Netflix 17830, 178, if it builds below, can flush. Netflix got hammered. I still think Netflix goes lower. So here is the 178, let me show you the 60 minute charts. So here is the 178 level right over here. Took out the 178, went all the way down to 175. Again, nice move on Netflix. Nothing wrong on Netflix. NVIDIA got murdered. They were coming for the 155, 150 weeklies. One after another, after another. 158 held twice. If it builds below, can flush. Here is NVIDIA. Right here is NVIDIA. See how many times it held 158? 158, 158. Excuse me, it actually held three times. It held 158 three times and this thing went from 158 all the way down to the 151 area destroyed on one candle. Absolutely destroyed. Amazon I was watching, they held 107 again. I'm still watching Amazon. Again, even though it was up today for a good part of the day and it held up, I mean, look at Amazon's chart, man. Again, it might not trigger tomorrow. It might not trigger the next day. But at some point, if they do pull the market again, look how many times they held this area here. Look how many times they held this 107. If this thing starts finally building below 107, it could get back down to the 101 range. So definitely keep an eye on that. Meta also held that 160 area. AMD got destroyed as well. 80, 20 and 79, 43 if it builds below can flush. Here was AMD, right? So it took out the 80, took out the 79, 20 and went all the way down to 76 and changed. This thing starts losing 76 is more downside there as well. This was obviously the big one. This is always the big one. Whenever in doubt, look at Tesla. Tesla 386, 85 held three times pre-market. If it builds below can flush. That's also the daily. So here was Tesla. Definitely the trade of the day, at least for me. Here was Tesla. It held the 85. Look how many times it held 85. Once, twice, three times, right? Three times. That's also the 85 was also the low on June the 20, no, excuse me, on June the 23rd. 685 was also the long. Also the bottom there. So you had three times, three times held 60 minute lows, broke the daily lows and the stock went down about 20, 25, about 20 points or so. Great move on Tesla. Again, I don't think the story is done yet. It got rejected back to where it got penetrated. That's what I said. So we're going to watch Tesla for the next couple of days. It might have a bounce day, but point is I want to watch the bottom range. I still believe it violates in the future. Today's session, we could see a move back into the 630. So that's it. That's it, guys. Very aggressive session today. Again, the discipline is, and this is kind of the words of encouragement, that I want to pass along, especially the newer traders. Number one, you don't need to trade every single day. You're trading because you're getting value, not because the market's open and kind of a little bit of a tip to all you guys who started trading the last couple of years. You ever hear the expression, I gave back my whole day, right? When do you think that happens, right? In the morning, it's usually in the afternoon. If you want to see a really good increase in your bottom line for the year, stop trading in the afternoons, because what happens in the afternoons is instead of the morning when channels expand and people are chasing, in the afternoon, the channels contract and people are underwater because of the whole day if they couldn't really get anywhere. So that's kind of my tip for the day. If you want to really see your performance really get better, just stop trading in the afternoons. See a world of a difference. Whatever you like in the afternoon, you're going to love the next day. Guys, God bless. Have a great night. Again, no video tomorrow. I'll see you guys all tomorrow on the webinar and I'll see the rest of you guys on the weekend update. Take care.