 So you have a measured potential of 129 to the upside of a 124.5, 125 build, and you have a measured potential of 108, initial measured potential of 108 if we start building below 17.5. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com nightly wrap-up show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a great weekend. Hopefully everybody had a pretty good trading day. We'll get to the individual pivots in a second. If you watched the video last night, we kind of talked about a very, very specific number on Tesla. We usually don't do so. But again, it's the first of the year. I figure kind of share the process with everybody. So we'll get to that in a second. If you are new to the channel, again, we would love for your support, continued support. If you are a mainstay here, drop a like. Right, drop a like. If you are new, click subscribe on the site so you can get notified when we are uploaded for the next day. So hopefully everybody did okay. So we started, if you guys remember, we just talked about this last night on the weekend video, we started 2023 exactly the same way we started 2022. That was below the 50-day moving average. We obviously are ready by now. In nausea, know the final statistics from 2022. NASDAQ lost 33% of its value, which is mind-boggling to continue to say out loud. Although today was not an exaggerated move or anything to be kind of notified, we're still playing out the same thesis as the market did when it lost the 50-day moving average back on December the 15th. And when you look at the final tallies today, it was really not a big deal one way or another. You're talking about here, let's see here, we're talking about the Dow down 10 points, the S&P down 15 points, and the NASDAQ down 79, obviously the weakest out of all of them. But the way the futures started out last night, if you were watching the futures last night, around six o'clock, pretty crazy roller coaster ride. Around six o'clock, the Dow futures jumped up about 200 handles. The NASDAQ futures were up about 80 points. And we're like, oh, okay, they're going to continue the rally from the last couple of days. They're pretty cool, who knows? Maybe the bulls make a stand. We talked about that 267 level, the importance of that 267 level last night in the video. And this morning, when you woke up, you're like, wow, what happened here? Excuse me, you look up an hour later, after yesterday's futures sessions started, and we went from Dow up 200 to Dow up 20 to Dow down 50. And we saw the NASDAQ futures go from up 80 to flat to down 20. So when I woke up this morning, I look up and I go, wow, the Dow futures up 300. The NASDAQ futures are up 110. And by the time everything was said and done an hour early, the Dow futures were up 100. The NASDAQ futures were up like 20. And let the roller coaster round go on and on and on. And you can see here pre-market, the cues really jumped up above that 267 level that we talked about pre-market. The problem is it lost it as soon as the market opened up. And again, we closed below the 10 day moving average, and which really brings us into a pretty good scenario here if you are a Delta neutral trader. So basically like me, I'm looking for a specific edge in those channels, whether we close above the range or below the range, that's the area that we are focusing on for the next day. And now we have a definitive area. We already know how important this 267 level is. We talked about last night the importance of 262. You see where it stopped again? You guys see that? 262 is the low from 12.29. 262 is the low from 12.30. Guess what today's low is, right? Drum roll, please. 262. So all you have to do if you are a channel trader or a day trader, a point of reference trader, whatever the case may be, you know the importance of 262 now, right? We held it three separate times. If the bulls give up that 262, then we're going to go back to the bottom of the range here. So this is a very, very important number that 267 level continues to be a big number on a closing basis for the bulls to kind of reestablish a little bit of footing, okay? But again, keep in mind, guys, again, watch that 262 level. It already held three times. How many times more it could hold? But if the leaders start taking down their major channels and we saw a couple of leaders today start taking down their major channels, we're going to have a problem on our hands. Well, at least the bulls have the problem on their hands. So send alert guys, right? So you're not shocked if the bears take over this area. 262, send alert. If the bulls lose control, we're going to go all the way back down to the bottom range and ultimately I still believe we test the bottom of the range here around the 254 level. Other than that, pretty cool day, right? Pretty cool day. I was talking to a couple of our guys, Matt and Larry, and I said, man, I don't remember the last time. Some of you guys have been with me for 12 plus years, but I don't remember the last time that the first day of the year was so darn aggressive, right? And when you're trading beta, the Teslas of the world, Netflix, Amazon, and so forth and so on, you don't need many trades, right? You don't need 100 different tickers throughout the day because they give you such a big range and such a big average shoe range that if you catch one the right way and you know your levels, like we talked about Tesla's levels yesterday and pretty much nausea, you could get a really potential big move and that's exactly what happened today to tech names, you know, they came in. You know, they came in. If you guys remember over the weekend video, we started talking about the Feb buyers of Apple 115 puts. Apple, you know, there's a report today that their products overseas in Asia, you know, they're being caught. They're not that as robust, as hopeful, as anticipated, as wanted. So that became an issue. Apple started losing and again, we'll get to the individual pivots in a second. It started losing its range from the Deccan bounce we had a couple of days ago, Tesla, right? And you know, here's kind of the deal with Tesla. So they had the delivery numbers, if you guys remember, over the weekend and I believe that they were still very good, right? I still believe, and again, I don't want to start a whole discussion about Tesla where it's going to be, where I think it's going to be two years from now. You know, we'll get to the technicals in a second, but, you know, their delivery still came in within like 40%, which is good. But the problem is, and this is where, you know, Wall Street and Main Street kind of disconnect, right? The problem is they did miss their estimates, right? And the problem with a growth story and they've been letting Tesla kind of breathe for seven years, mostly to the upside. But the problem is when a growth story in the eyes of Wall Street, maybe not in the eyes of retail investors or retail traders, but in the eyes of Wall Street, when it starts dying down and they stop paying for potential, all those expected numbers that they were supposed to do in Wall Street's eyes, those, they get sold. And if you look at the numbers, you know, the total deliveries were 405,000. The problem was the estimate was 420. That's a miss. The Model S, the Model X, the deliveries came in for 17,000. The problem was the estimate was 18,000. Again, not a big deal, but you kind of get my point. The Model 3, the Model Y, the estimates were 300, the estimates were 405,000. They came at 388,000, a little bit of a bigger miss. So again, Wall Street, once it stops paying for potential, well, that's the point of it. And the most important part of what happened to Tesla today is we were prepared. And again, guys, that's the theme for every single video. For all you guys who are not in the webinar, again, you're not really privy to this on a day-to-day basis. That's why in last night's video, I gave you guys very, very specific prices, right? And this is probably once a year I'll do that. Because again, it's all about the channels. No matter if we love Tesla, if we hate Tesla, you think Elon's an idiot, you think Elon's the best, it doesn't make a difference. Channels are either going to confirm the top of the range and go higher, or confirm the bottom of the range and going to go lower. We talked about this in last night's video, 124.5, 125 to the upside, 17.5 to the downside. It took out 17.5 today, guys. And this thing was an incredible move. We had a $13 move. Phenomenal flush. Absolutely phenomenal flush. Right now it's trading basically on the 108 level. 108 level after hours. You know, went all the way down to 104. Phenomenal move. They were coming some really, really aggressive buying. The weeklies and next weeks, they were coming for the 105s, the 103s, the 100s. So look, is it possible Tesla has a dead cat bounce tomorrow? Yeah, listen, everything's possible. I have zero interest in the dead cat bounce. I really do the same way. The same way when the market dead cat bounces, right? You're kind of kind of looking to pick your spots. You know, look, I think if Tesla goes sideways, or if it starts losing today's channels, I think there's a shot this thing tests 100. And if you look at the daily Bollinger ban, you have a move, you know, what, to 97? So, you know, keep an eye on this thing for the next couple of days. But today, absolutely phenomenal job, phenomenal, phenomenal move on Tesla. And it was super fast, super aggressive, but more important, very, very orderly. So let's talk about today's pivots, right? We started the day talking about, hey, look, you know, we said this last night on the video, you know, that first day, a lot of new traders are all excited. Remember the story, you know, you're at the bar, you're drinking. This is going to be our year. This is you kill it. I'm going to kill it. We're all going to kill it. And then 15 minutes in, you realize nothing has changed, except for the date on the calendar and everything that you were doing poorly and bad habits, poorly and chasing and all that stuff. You carried it over and 15 minutes in, you're depressed, right? It's very, very demoralizing. This is where, again, a lot of traders just really, just implode mentally. And it's very, very tough to recover. So my initial on the Twitter feed, let the initial excitement of the year die out. Big gap up in the future, right? We saw that really, really big gap of the futures after a volatile overnight session. Don't remind me, right? 33% last year of the Nasdaq loss. Let the channels for the day develop. Give us clear channels. No rush. Tays the first day of the month. It's very, very emotional for new traders. Again, for us, I don't care if it's a Tuesday, Wednesday, Groundhog Day, Flag Day, whatever day, right? First day of the year, it's business as usual, one trade at a time, one day at a time. Let the channels develop and boy, oh boy, that they develop. So Tesla, again, like we talked about last night in the video, 125 upside, 117.50 downside for the day. Tesla went through that 17.50, never looked back, and absolutely got destroyed. I mean, destroyed, went straight down to 104. Really big move here. Kala, I wasn't really watching. I put this in for you guys. Kala for thrill seekers and experienced traders, monster for they run. 29, if it builds below, can start a backside move. I have no idea what this thing did. I have no idea. This is the first time I'm seeing it. Not really my thing. It looks like it went down to like 28.50 and then bounce. So that is what it is. Yeah. So, you know, pretty much everything gapping close to their supply. I'll start putting in pivots as the day develops. Meta continues to be really, really strong, right? 124.70 needs to build. Here it was Meta. Really nice, strong pop considering how weak everything was. Here was the 124.70s, one nice move. You know, rally a couple of bucks very, very quickly on Meta. I still like it. It looks pretty strong, especially if the market continues to grind or sweet move there. Apple got hit. Again, they came. They started coming last week for the 115 Febs. Today, this morning, they were coming for the 127. The 126 puts last Friday, again, the Feb 115. 127.40, if it builds below, it can flush. Here's Apple, right? So these are the leaders. These are just regular, you know, average stocks. Took out the 27.41 all the way down to 24. Hey, man, if this thing starts confirming today's channel, I think there's lower prices up ahead. So let's keep an eye on that. Little stock, guys, keep an eye on this little stock, G-R-A-B. I tweeted this out in my regular account. For small cap lovers, they were coming for the February four and a half calls. 340, 345 needs to build. Take a look, take a look, take a look. I put this in my regular account. Let me just show you guys the option flow on this thing. Let me just show you the option flow with some pretty big, let me see, Dan Shapiro. Bear with me one second. It's here, it's here. Anyway, if you go through my full account, there is, right? Well, actually that wasn't me, but somebody posted this also. Looks like somebody posted it also. So I don't have to go only to my account, but somebody posted this also. Look at the buyers they were coming in for, guys. Look at the premiums they were coming in for. They were coming for the February 450, 450 calls, 450 calls, 450 calls. And guys, look at the size of these contracts. 10,000, 7,500, 9,700, 10,000, 8,700. Keep an eye on this thing. Nice looking chart, nice looking chart on Grab. Nice looking chart on Grab. It's breaking out of this whole cycle. This thing starts getting above this channel here, above November 16 highs. Who knows? Maybe you could take off the last big, smaller name that really did well was, if you guys remember IQ, right? We talked about IQ off that $4 break. They were coming for the $455 calls. Look at this thing they did today. So who knows? Maybe history will repeat itself. Anyway, guys, welcome everybody back. The new year is here. It looks fine, right? It looks fine to me. Again, new year, same process, same discipline. And most important thing is, again, stay healthy and stay happy. Guys, God bless everybody. I will see you tomorrow night. Take care.