 Okay, good morning everybody. It's just 8 o'clock a.m. Eastern time. It's Friday The I think it's the 15th of September. I'll just double-check that one Friday the 15th of September and We are doing another hour with bookmap Let me just go through the disclaimers here firstly and then we'll move on All bookmap limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and Should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations Trading futures equities and digital currencies involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results Okay Let us move on Yep, as we've been doing for the last couple of webinars. We've got the Content split up into four. I won't necessarily follow this order. It depends each session upon what the economic release is and whether there's some really good live Order flow action to provide commentary on But today I thought I'd actually start it up with the the third section the prep the context for today Okay, anyway, let us go back to the bookmap screens just for a second. Make sure that Everything is running okay And check that we have some people on board Good morning. If you've got any questions comments thoughts, whatever Please feel free to pop them in the discord or in the YouTube chat Think everything in YouTube is yep. It's all running fine. So we can press on Okay, so before we go into the The the prep for today. Let's just have a very quick look at the heat map zoomed out Just to predicate any action that we may see a little bit later So we have this big big band of liquidity We call it a band because it covers a zone several price levels all the way from 456 675 up to 4570 so nearly four points And we are just hovering above some liquidity below 237 decent amount and a bit further down we have larger liquidity down at 452 0.5. So that's just the Picture, so let's have a look at Where we are in some context, so we'll switch across to the slideshow and just Have a look at where we have been Okay, first of all, let's have a look at the calendar. We do have Some economic news coming out You've got the New York Fed manufacturing and US import prices coming in at 830 So that's 27 minutes from now. Just making sure I'm speaking over the microphone rather than into it I'm aware also that the voice or the microphone on the last webinar was a little bit quiet I do apologize. I did a listen to it And I'm trying to position the microphone a little bit better for this session. If there are any issues, please let me know okay, and Later on today we have the industrial production numbers. That's the main news release at 915 and the Michigan University of Michigan sentiment at 10 o'clock and That really is about it So you the main news is not going to be during this hour It's going to be at 915 but again still in the pre-session the breakfast session and then at 10 o'clock half an hour after the RTH session has opened Okay, where are we? Okay We've been following this month multi-month daily trend line. The up trend is still intact. We've been coming down To try and tag it but we have not yet got close. So the up trend is still intact for ES and For NQ it's it's a slightly steeper uptrend, but it's basically the same picture and you can see where we are On the profiles. I've just got screenshots to hold on Let me just the other snapshot, which is yesterday the stock market heat map of what actually happened under the hood And you can see the big players Microsoft Google Apple all had very healthy updates and we had a really good bounce Quite early in the session Okay Yep, let us look well to move on to ES first. Okay, I Know that's a little bit small and it is zoomed out Okay, there is a reason why I did that today and why I'm just having a look at the screenshot rather than Dragging in my Sierra window and going through it. Okay, what I'm trying to show here is a Value region a wide value region down here and Another big value region up here and we have traversed from one to the other So we're now in this upper value zone which stretches all the way from here all the way up to there And so that's quite interesting to note And if we look at NQ the same kind of picture the profiles are all obviously a little bit thinner because it's a thinner instrument but Again, we are now really in this upper band and we're moving towards this naked for your point of control up there That's even too small for me to read so I'm going to read my window that naked Point of control above in NQ is at 15 7 3 1 50 and the value zone in ES that I have in the in the In this picture here stretches really from 455 to all the way up to 4588 or 4587 So it's quite a wide value area and where we're now in it And there is a possibility that we're going to traverse it and go all the way up to that 4587 It's just a possibility, but it is one worth mentioning because we are in this value Okay So essentially if we look over if I just move over to the streaming Section section and we just zoom it out on the trading view charts and see what has happened today in and overnight so So the early AS early Asian session was quite choppy We move it up a little bit bouncing up and down up and down up and down We had a big breakout up above yesterday's high that continued into the London Open which has ran run about there and then we have broken back down into yesterday's range And NQ has even tagged yesterday's settlement. That's the pink magenta line And the ES is It has a triple bottom zone if you look at that across in fact, we just draw a line across here That effectively is a triple bottom Maybe even a quadruple bottom depending on how you look at it So there is a high probability that we will take out One two three four lows and and push towards settlements down at four five five five Maybe we'll even do that in our one-hour session Okay, just checking that we have some people with us. Yep Yep, we do. Okay. So, yeah, so since that break back into range in ES, which was just after the London Open We have essentially just chopped around in a wide value So if I zoom back out and have a look it's essentially this value here of four five six one fifty down to four five five seven But I'd be suggesting if you zoom out That's a relatively poor low and with a quadruple bottom a good chance If we get a nice setup to push down and take it out But bearing in mind if we look at the resting liquidity We've got a lovely high band that they may want to go up to first to get the fuel to go down Or alternatively they may go down first to go up We cannot know we cannot predict the future. We can only trade Analyze find I probably set ups that have An expectancy a positive expectancy in the longer term and that is A segue to what I actually wanted to talk about for my ideas education session today right, um, if I go back to The screenshots and I move on to the last screenshot Which is this? This is something I put in the discord room Um two days ago. I think it was now. This is a reverse spring a cat a category C type Supply and demand trade. I'm talking about just here where it fails and then moves down Um, this is also known as an upthrust a breakout failure a swing failure pattern It's got lots and lots of names But basically we have a swing high here We come down so there's clear supply to get us down there Then we reverse we take out the swing failure point. We look for something We'll talk about what what they tend to look for We hit a resistance band of high liquidity and we reject and the trade really is up about there And what we really want to do for our 10 15 20 minutes While the market is The market is just chopping around is talk about this as a setup. Let me Just get the display capture back up. Okay, so we have some We have some price action entertainment whatever you want to call it Something to keep us occupied for a second. Okay. What have I got for us? All right. Okay. I have got a Free program. So most of what I do. I mean all the stuff over here on the right in trading view is free This is another free program. This is a program called obsidian. I've mentioned it before I use it extensively for my trade journaling That's basically my commentary to myself on all sorts of things During the market trading day and also for my wiki or knowledge management second brain Whatever you want to call it. Okay. So what we're going to do here is do some visual strategy thinking Maybe we should just switch back to es just for a section session Second to watch this one as it goes towards tagging the liquidity that's been Relatively stable since 715 And they're coming up towards it's 200 liquidity Maybe we're gonna Yeah, we've got a couple of swing highs So it looks like it may Attack some stops above into this liquidity at four five six two It would be quite nice if they did that for us So we could actually watch it happening. You can see some more liquidity here. They're trying to attract Well, they're trying to advertise to everyone that that there is liquidity to transact at above Remember price does not go in a straight line So whenever I pause and I come across come along to this does not mean that we'll get that action straight away, but Whilst we have this we can have a look at the micro structures Since this low So at this low here or this this trading range you could call it Let me draw again Okay, I should have a blue pen now No, it's not drawing for me Yep now it's drawing Okay, you have this trading range here You've got some liquidity Down there both here and also lower down But most importantly what you want to look at Um to give you the idea that That it's not going to go down initially or one perspective is this So you've got very large Proportional sell delta right below in other words. You've got some players who are potentially being trapped You can see how many sellers there were there, you know, it's over a thousand Or you add the two levels or three levels together I think it's just two levels there and you've got 1600 1700 Sellers, so you've got fuel that this time of the day, which is 8 13 a.m On not too busy a day The relative volume we're early in the december futures contract So the relative volume isn't going to be as reliable as say in a couple of weeks time But the relative volume is 112 percent. So the relative volume is good So it indicates to us that we should get a decent level of volatility in the eth session But what i'm saying here is that you have enough Fuel there To go upwards And that's what happened here You know, is there an incredibly clear trigger To take a long around here? No, I would argue even if we zoomed into the micro micro structure So effectively what you've got If you were to try and take this kind of setup is you'd be trying to get out get in at one side of this small trading range Have a first scale the other side of the trading range and then try and trail it So you could milk the trade as much as you possibly can With the knowledge that there is liquidity up at 4562 and the the bigger band of liquidity above and all in the context of the TPO profiles that we were looking at earlier Okay, let me just get rid of all that So we did come up there. They added liquidity and it failed Just having a look just making sure there are no questions. Okay That's interesting. So I promise that we would look into the micro structure and it's always worth looking at Because this is where book that really shines, especially in my view in eth So when you go into this you can see A few things, right? You um When you look at this trading range, and I know I've shrunk it a bit. I can just expand it again I'm hoping that one of the most Noticable aspects are the large dots and that they're mainly read as evidence by the delta over here What I tend to do is then get into the actual volume sizes the 130 the 140 Um The 150 so basically They're adding up to around about 600 750 around here. They're trapping people If you were a scalper There is a potential scalper and we're looking at es rather than nq and that's in the knowledge that I'm more likely to Take a trade in nq at this time of the day just because there is a greater level of volatility And that naturally means a greater number of trade setups that appear But what you'd be looking at is um Taking an entry At around this level within a couple of ticks with either either at four five Four five five seven or four five five seven 25 to try and get at least one R Back from the other side of the range and then you'd be trailing this as as hard as you could And this one's quite interesting because we were in balance We'd found balance. We'd found Harmony and then we broke out of balance Then what you what you may do or one of the things you might do is look at that microstructure Once we're out of balance and find out is it exploring or is it getting back into balance and here we are exploring um We don't even form a swing low really until you until about this This dot here if that is a swing low, but it's really as close as you're going to get at this time of the day To a straight move up. So it's it's clear balance That we saw and then it's a clear breakout That kind of action you can get in the eth session, but Yeah, it's just The one of the ways of trading it was getting in at this side of the trading range Taking a scale one R and then trailing it Towards that liquidity up at four five six two Okay. Anyway, let us move back to the ideas education section Right. Okay earlier just before the the webinar. I drew this and I'm going to continue drawing here, right this This is a mirror image of the screenshot that I posted in the discord two days ago It is on that occasion and I can draw that I might just draw that with my Blue pen on that occasion as I showed in the screenshot you had You had a swing high It came down Took it out There was a liquidity above a liquidity band above and then it failed So that is a effectively a mirror image of what I've got drawn here in Obsidian in it's a free plugin called Excalibur So if I remove that and then we talk about how we turn this into a setup because that is the whole point of this little discussion And what we might also see in in book map to help us here. So there's a few things that you're going to see in um In book map and what I'm doing here is I'm going to draw the most stereotypical things that you might see so Um And it's on this swing the second swing low which will give us the trigger So if I draw We just move that around turn that into a line Actually, that color is not very good. So Okay, not a good drawing. I may as well have just done it with my pencil Um, I'm not brilliant at Excalibur yet, but I have been using it for some of my visual strategies that I like drawing out in my trading plan What I'm trying to to draw here in terms of describing the setup visually is your swing low And maybe we'll just start typing here Okay So essentially this is a category C type supply and demand that I've been talking about for two three maybe even four weeks by now Uh, and this is about the best example that you can possibly get Okay, and I just wanted to explain some of what you can see in book map and then talk about how you then turn that Into a setup, which is a strategic part of your trading plan again It's only a tiny part of your trading plan, but it is a part Okay, um at and um, let me just start writing up here as well in lack, okay, I'm just writing down some fundamentals of What you need In this trade setup for it to even you even to think about it becoming viable In your in your strategy and in your trading plan. Okay Right. What have I done here? I've said I assume the 50% win rate. Why because until you have compiled your own statistics And that is logging every single trade that you do um You have to assume it's a coin toss and that also applies to every next trade that you do Regardless of the statistics that you may have compiled regardless of what you think should happen Every time you enter the casino and place a bet i.e. you take a trade It is a 50 50 for that individual instance for that individual bet So what better place to start in terms of describing your setup than to assume It's a 50% win rate and then look from there as to why you might want to take it. Okay Um Right, so I'm just going to I'm going to write one other thing on this as well Yeah, let me just do this in a different color and do this in a blue I need to move that one across I'm not sure why that did that never mind. Okay. All right um Let's quickly describe the features of this to make it a setup and then why we might want to and get into the expectancy which Is linked to two things it's linked to your stop and your targets plural Okay, you might just have one target in which case it's your stop and your target, but um the way that I tend to describe and provide Suggestions is on the basis of it having multiple targets. I use scale up But meanwhile, I think we may be having some action back down. So let's have a look Okay If I actually draw on this this is essentially the same mirror image Of the the setup that I just described So if I draw this right We and I and I do this as a line. So I'm just doing this with my mouse here We have a swing high Right. We come down. We have supply to get down I'm not going to talk about the liquidity down here for a second. What I'm going to talk about is that this then breaks This is another swing point You can see it's taking out the previous swing high into an area of liquidity So that is identical to what I just drew. Well identical in In terms of what you can get the market to show you as identical Everything in the market will be different every single time But that is as close to what I did describe as can occur. So what I do like about this trade is that you often From a from a from an expectancy perspective, this is about as high An expectancy kind of trade as you can get right Let us Keep going on this one. So I will just Right up here. So I would say This is your risk point. Just the other side stop Just the other side of this liquidity So we're saying that if you get in here This is yes. So you can get in here. So I'm saying that you got in at 456050 and the worst 456025 You have a two-point stop up to here. So up to there Is two points, right? That means that I cannot date this trade in the way that I want to describe positive Expectancy until I can get at least two points back So to do that to get to the one-hour point it is at 45 5 8 25. So down to There That is one hour And then you have another tranche Two points. In fact, you've got a tranche four to five six 25. This is two are And then another two points would be down to here three are Okay, so I'm just trying to break this trade down visually whilst we build at the setup so that we can see What it is about this particular setup Attracts me and how it relates to a trading plan and what you're describing If we go across over to the trading view chart just so we have the the broader brushed image You can see what I was saying a little bit earlier Which was that it was likely or there was high probability we do would take out this quadruple bottom That's the one two three four or one two three four five We've done that and so this is also a breakout failure so far in the sense that it has taken that out and rejected it by going back above Okay But you've also got some resting liquidity and to me it's just A little bit more likely that we're going to go and get a little bit close to that Maybe take out that resting liquidity before we reverse back up to the The bigger bands of liquidity above in fact, we may even go down to some of the lower bands They're just adding here at four five sixty twenty five, which is quite interesting Let me just get rid of all of this Yeah, no I am I apologize going backwards and forwards, but sometimes it's good when we Do some education or some theory and then we immediately see it in practice Um, so if we go back to what we were describing, okay And just to recap What we ordinarily see and some of this I may not write out, but I'll just describe it So what I'm saying for the for the mirror image of that one you have a clear swing low You see clear demand up eventually it fails It comes back to the swing point low goes below breaks below. That's the whole point And and you'll often see some kind of big red dot if you're using delta dots or a big dot If you or big dots if you're if you're using volume dots and that is often It often correlates with stop runs such as the mbo Stop orders that you see inside bookmap, right and the idea or the theory behind why there might be A big volume dot or stop run Close to this second swing low is that the algos Decided to come for the stops which Were set by the buyers the buyers may have just gotten around about here just near the swing high These are late buyers. These are retail type buyers and the algos Decided that it was likely that they would be stops just under there So they break out below and they also know that there's this liquidity zone just underneath here So they know that there is a high likelihood of transactions occurring So they go under that low they take the stops of these late buyers And once they have those stops that is the fuel for them to take the rally much higher And it's at this point that you'll often see Some nice little green dots depending on what colors you have in your bookmap Suggesting that buyers are coming on board Sometimes it's more obvious than other times Just having a look across Uh the action in I might just zoom in on the one minute there so we can see if it's going to come down Further or there are clearly rejecting. So this is the swing low the previous swing low that we talked about This was the breakout failure Or the breakout below towards the And q-cell 33 stop and here they have And you heard or some of you on youtube would have heard my alert not on discord because it doesn't seem to come through You'd have heard the mbo stop alert. We've got the 61 stops But effectively anytime I have more than 50 stops In es at this time the day I get an audible alert and that I'm sure comes through on youtube because I Heard it when I watched the recording the other day all right Um and you also have to accept there is No 100 percent predict predictability of how this will play out So quite often because they do need fuel to go up And it was quite a long way up that we were talking about to get to that liquidity band Which they've now removed a lot of actually at 4567 But you've still got liquidity zones up at 4570 and 4575 They'll need a lot of fuel to get those up to those 15 20 points above So they may well come down and keep coming down and getting lots and lots of sellers Um until until they have enough fuel to then Take out all those late sellers and drive it higher. So what we're watching again here is the delta profile we can Bring in the action here. We've got a nice little balance zone here. You can see With these profiles being volume profiles in the right hand column You can see that it is forming balance That often suggests there's going to be some continuation because there hasn't been a rejection They found acceptance at this zone and you've also got liquidity below So this is using volume profile to suggest suggest they're in balance But they are likely to strike lower before Before they do go any higher if they go any higher Okay But they may well have had enough fuel and you never know again I cannot predict as to when they will have the fuel. Okay. If we quickly go back to Why is this positive expectancy? Okay Um Right Okay, let us talk and let's draw this in Should we go we shall go green? Okay Get rid of that one green So i'm going to draw an arrow And say that right there is the tightest stop you can place You might place remember it's all individual personal to your trading plan And then let's draw another arrow. Okay, so The factors of why you might want to consider this trade You can see from both those sentences that There is clarity in terms of where this trade is wrong, you know You know The the tightest or the simplest definition of being wrong in this trade is if there is continuation lower Than this swing point low after the rejection upwards All right, and most conservative is is you're using the liquidity as a wall a barrier to place behind I'm often quite aggressive and you'll find my stop will often be there because I'd rather be wrong sooner And get more multiples of r Um And q by 21 iceberg 15,640 to All right, I'm just coming on this one as well It's hard doing both at the same time turn to describe a setup Go through all the criteria that you go through to talk about whether actually can be a setup and then There is also good action on why this particular spring or breakout failure and q cell 40 to stop But you know part of the recipe was the the bouncing that we just saw in the profile That liquidity below which they still wanted and the fact you've got even more liquidity below that So it's quite interesting at this point to see whether they Are also accepting here to go lower And if we quickly switch across to and q We zoom out Finally after a week and a half of this contract or I can't remember this week and a half Or just several days of this contract some of these resting liquidity Levels in nq are becoming a bit firmer and it's not not just the algo borders that we saw For the first few days of this december futures contract. So this level here at the um 40 was actually Quite good and you can see it's been in place for quite a long time So it's been in place since the asian session And now it's just been taken out for the last few days. There was nothing like that in nq And you can see it's breaking down. It wants to break down even lower towards that And we can also see now that es has tagged settlement and gone through it Again, I'm just stopping to see if there are any questions So yeah, nq took out the second liquidity level which again was arresting liquidity or magnetic level es is coming down to this area and again, we're watching this And a note on what I often comment on these unfinished auctions when I talk about unfinished auctions I do not mean that they are not an immediate reversal point. They can reverse right now off off something That's an unfinished auction. That's where you've got both a buy and seller at the extreme point zone And here the extreme point zone is low It is just something that I note for my records because Depending on the size of the unfinished auction i.e. how fat or poor it is There is a likelihood or probability that it will come back and tag it later later can be much later It is just something to have in your back pocket that there is Probability that it may come down and grab it later And when I say grab it it can often be a quick snatch and grab So you might just have an unfinished auction here It goes away up there up to the skies the heavens for two hours comes back down Just grabs it takes it out and then reverses back. And again, that is another example of these Springs that we are talking about in our other slide this slide over here Okay, so What I was trying to say and it's Let's just draw a box We have a clear stop and q by 24 iceberg 15 635.75 Just putting down usual first target I'm using the words usual because again, it depends upon your risk and reward as to whether that is or is not Uh in terms of where you enter. Let's choose a different color Let's go back to black um I'm just going to write this out. I know it's a little bit messy and it's quite hard as well because It's such a small canvas and we're doing a few different things at the same time And I know that's in the way. So I'm going to have to move it I'm going to have to take this arrow and bring it over here Then maybe if that arrow joins that one Yep Just try to get it out of the way so we could see it. Okay. So, um In book map and this is one of the reasons why we're describing this setup because we're using a setup Which is relatively easy to see in book map and I hope I've demonstrated that by showing it to you live Um, you will often get a retest especially if it's MQ cell 46 stop fairly significant bars there. The price will often if I'd get my old pen out again The price will often Go up up And then eventually it'll come back down to this level here retest it and then go up So the reason I drew these little green bicycles was they often provide a very good Um zone to To be tested On the supply demand test, you know So you you might get in straight away when you see this big stop run With a very tight stop and then take that there But you often get an opportunity upon a retest or a secondary retest or a third retest to take this and it Believe me, it can have several retests before it reverses and goes much higher It all depends on the fuel and we will never know when they have enough fuel to do their reversals Okay All right, so I'm just saying that there's a clear stop. There's often a clear entry And there's a clear one-hour target or that's normally well above one hour And then there are normally levels or zones Whether in book map, whether they are heat map zones of liquidity or whether they're key levels or other swing highs Or profile delineation areas hv and lv ends that provide further targets And you always have the option to use manually scale behind price in the words if price is going up You can drag your stop behind it and move your targets well out of the way And then just let price continue to explore until it finishes exploring Right, let's just analyze some of this action that we missed because I was trying to describe that I haven't actually got on to trade management yet. So whilst we look at the price action and we note that The nq has come down quite hard. I'm now going to look across at the value areas from yesterday to see If we're now at a at a zone We're quite a low an lv n in nq So if we move across to nq, I've got shortcuts, but I'm just looking to see what the Liquidity is around here. So we've got two more liquidity bands here So there's a good chance that You know, this couldn't mark a low or just it goes down just towards around here. Maybe even take them out and then bounces I'm just having a look as well You've got to assume all possibilities. So open your mind. So I'm also looking much lower so If I zoom out Again, nq this new contract the sembers contract is not the greatest at showing Showing magnetic liquidity levels that are far from the current price It's getting better at showing them when it's relatively close to the price, but nothing really further away So I was just looking at my profile liquidity to see where the big liquidity was below and There's a round number liquidity at 1550, which I tend to ignore And there's nothing else really. There's more liquidity above That's of interest. So really at the overnight high, there's some decent liquidity and above that there is as well So there'd be enough encouragement to me in terms of there being a lack of resting liquidity below And the fact that we've come down a fair way to start looking at reversals here And one of the things that I do look at in nq as you know is a long tail of red delta at a low This isn't bad. I mean you've got some interspersing of green, but If we look at the microstructure as well, we have a We have a really good spring here. We have a sharp breakdown. It takes it down below There's plenty of potential so earn trapper Trapped sellers and then we watch that microstructure So explores higher explores higher explores higher Nice little liquidity dip below a large trade here We can find the trade 63. Yep. That's quite large Right and then you and then at that point, let me get my line once you've seen that we draw a line across and Mark that as the line in the sand. It's not really very horizontal. Is it? Anyway For the ongoing microstructure auctioning just get rid of it because it's not horizontal So we can't really remember that this is a thin instrument the fact that you've made a Tiny low just under that big volume is neither here nor there. That's effectively a double bottom It can't get any lower and then it continues to auction higher But it doesn't really take out this high much. So we're really in a balancing zone here And so here we're a wide-ranging balance And that's where we are. So I'd say we're in a balancing zone all around here On NQ and on ES Oh, we've got some icebergs. So we've got something else to look at here to provide us extra Market generated information. I I do treat them as market generated information even though I don't necessarily use them in the way that you might expect them to be used I often as I keep saying I'll use sell icebergs as targets rather than as walls of defense Okay, so this liquidity down at 4550 even though it's a round number I'm just interested to see if now that we're in this balance zone in ES Which we've described in NQ a similar balance zone there. We're now breaking below it So there's an opportunity for them to get down take out this low And see how much further they can explore It's taking it's time to get down there NQ is not moving down. So NQ is in this balance zone So if it does break down on this occasion, it was ES that was leading Yep ES leading taking it out there bang So you saw them tag it and then the liquidity refilled so it's just Intriguing to know whether that was it And whether they might then reverse up to there or whether they're going to continue down looks like they want to continue down a little bit further And The opposite of an unfinished auction is a rollover This is where you have very little volume and only on one side at the extreme price And a rollover will always be just sellers at the low and just buyers at the high Um single and Q cell 20 iceberg 15,633 Yeah, that was an alert single figure rollovers Um are usually the best here. We've now got an unfinished auction. So I'm just Monitoring that so it looks like it wants to explore a little bit further and NQ Now that's interesting there. So you see that Iceberg of only three. I know it's a very small number and totally insignificant But it is retained in the market market. So that becomes a potential target to me Especially if it goes down further and provides A real really nice multiple R target Unfortunately, unfortunately on this occasion, we went straight back up So in other words, I couldn't really use that as a target And we've taken it out now But again another good example of how one might use icebergs in a slightly different fashion In these markets So we've got another extreme point here. We've got 22 at the low. We've got a tiny tiny little bounce area here So if I zoom out, I zoom right in you can see what I mean about little bouncing zone And every time we zoom in and out you can see on the profile I haven't got that very wide But it gives you an example of When we get into balance and when we move out of balance All right, okay, so yeah going back to this and I'd call this really just more brainstorming It's not a clear visual strategy What you'd have to do is after you've been brainstorming this turn this into a much cleaner prettier picture So, um, yeah, you'd move everything around and you'd have it structured as a proper flow diagram It's been a little bit hard for me to do that whilst we have been Commentating on live market action at the same time But in summary of where we are at this point in time One of the reasons why you take it is it's clear where you are wrong. Whether you are aggressive or conservative It's crystal clear Or one of the absolute musts in my personal opinion or in terms of how I trade is knowing Do I have a clear wrong point? It's a better setup for me if I have a clearer wrong point because then there's no doubt I'm just I'm just executing a clear and simple plan Which is the best type of plan because it means you're going to be executing it with high efficiency Okay right Positive expectancy and the 50% win rate. That's what I mentioned at the beginning. Okay What I'd like to say here is that even if this trade And the way that I've drawn it here only had a 50% win rate If it did have that 50% win rate i.e. the coin toss win rate and you had And that applied to it taking your aggressive stop here And getting in here and getting a first scale there or are you getting at least that on each of your 50% winners That is a profitable system in the longer term Because you can see that would be above one R And some of those Some of those winners some of those 50% would go They would go Much further there'd be something up here. There might be a full reversal So they might get you the three hours the four hours the five hours the two hours up above So the fact that it's 50% should not be a much of a discouragement Um, you know, this is of all the setups that we might come across This is the one with the tighter stop and the highest potential for multiple R winnings on the trade And that's really why I wanted to try and start drawing it and trying explaining what you're going to see and why you might see it Just ditch all that Let's go back to um Let's go back to ES at the moment and just watch what's happening on the microstructure I'm just looking at a few things. So bear with me for a second One of the things that I'm looking at is the levels that are below. So, I mean, I'm aware that um on on the V-WAP bands that we're now right down underneath The second SD of V-WAP we're into the into the what I call the lower stanza And my view on on this third standard deviation is simply that It's unlikely to spend much time down here. It doesn't mean it won't continue going down on the trend motion It's just unlikely to stay down at the third stanza. In other words, it'll have little bounces and may continue um, but from what I am seeing We've got um the V-WAP of the rth session just underneath us at 4547 And yes stays mid which is often a very good place to go back to and tag after you've had a very elongated range session is down at 4540.5 So if it gets down there, it's not a tremendous surprise You know because if it flees the same as saying a 50 percent retracement of yesterday's high Which happens a lot more common than we all think Okay, let's do one of our little zooming out liquidity pictures again Because these liquidity pictures do change a lot right now. Why do I say that? All right, when we started talking about this back at 8 a.m There were these big liquidity and Q cell 39 stop and he is making a new overnight low um Well, yeah, when we started talking there were big liquidity bands up 4561 And 4567 and the ones above are still there, but I'm just saying these two have disappeared So if you do not zoom out on a fairly regular basis, you may have assumptions or Evidential positions, which no longer hold true. So in other words, even the liquidity map changes very very regularly And it is worth it. I know that when I was watching this video myself from wednesday That I spent an awful lot of time Zooming in and out and I apologize for that because it's probably a bit distracting Um, it is a necessary evil when you are actively trading it So if I was not um broadcasting this webinar now was actively trading it I would be zooming in and out a lot and as I said, I'll be looking at quite a few things to see Uh, where this range may go. So at the moment We do have a chunk of liquidity and that may act as a good little wall Especially if we get right up to it. So if we get right down to 4545, you know when I said right up to it I meant right down to it um 4545 There is a good possibility that we won't be able to Eat our way all the way down to 4542 straight away that we may have a small bounce And so if you were looking at getting short before before the session started It is one of those Fundamentals that you don't chase Why don't you chase because your expectancy i.e The r multiple for your first target is going to be absolutely tiny or in my opinion It's going to be really really tiny So what what i've been trying to say on all of the setups and all of the trading that we've been looking at The very first scale that I want to try and get out at is one r I do not wish to To um, you know to get out at 0.5 r 0.2 r 0.3 r And when you chase that it's effectively what you're doing You're making the high the highest probability target be only 0.2 r because you're not wrong For a long way because uh the market is due for a pullback because you've got all this fuel in in In the reverse direction and you also need the or the participants need to have a breather So even though i'm saying that it is quite likely that we will get down a little bit lower into that liquidity Um, you know, they need a breather There's also a possibility and you've got to look at it both ways that if this is a really really good Thick liquidity band coming up to the rth open That could just be positioning by bigger players to get as many people short as possible before they rip it higher at the rth open Um, you've got to be aware of really volatile times Um in the eth and the rth times I mean we've spoken about the the half hours and the our marks, you know the um The eights the seven thirties, etc all of those, you know They can be good points because the algos may turn on their little algorithms Round about those half hour points, but the market open is one of the The most volatile times and that applies equally to the other market opens whether it's the china pre open The london open or the rth open For the us Which you've just got to be aware that you know It could be a strategy and it has played out a few times in the last few weeks Where they try and get as many people short as possible right into the open And then the first action that they do is Or actually there's there's two first actions that they often do one is just to rip it straight higher Squeeze the living daylights out of all those people that got short before 9 30 The second is to take it down a little bit lower I convince them that it's going to go miles and miles down And get even more people short and then rip it higher Now both of those scenarios play out quite often Okay, we're down to about four minutes left on this. So again, I throw it open to any questions at all I know I didn't really finish the visual strategy That I was going through but hopefully I got some way on it. So It's really, you know, um, it's really must be your own strategy. So that was just an example of how to factor in a swing or a picture of A swing fairly pattern inside book map into your own trading plan And even though most trading plans are words I think there's absolutely no harm when you're concocting them to use diagrams flow diagrams pictures screenshots, you know screenshots are essentially Essential both in your trade journaling of the trades that you actually take and also other things that you see in the market from time to time But there's no harm in having those actually within your trading plan themselves So that the words are a lot easier to understand Okay back on to the microstructure here This looks relatively clear that we are now balancing in this little zone here. So if I was going to draw it This little congestion zone around about here. So we're just bouncing around there We'll change my view is if we then take out this high and then start exploring Uh higher, but we haven't so far. So we've just we're just staying in this range. You saw there's two swing highs there and there This one's effectively a Reverse spring or up thrust of the previous one and this one again is a repeat but essentially all we're doing is Congesting or balancing in this little zone of about Two points before the next exploration or the next auction move You've got some liquidity up above here 1987 you've got some bigger liquidity below at 303 391 is the biggest one down here and in eth Liquidity is more likely to be magnetic than it is in rth. We're still in eth at the moment We have not got any major economic releases in this one hour So I will pay more attention to that liquidity than I would do at 930 onwards. Okay, so we're now broken out of this little little balancing area and there's that Liquidity target just below as an example of where it might want to go And if we're looking for a spring, this is the previous swing low And we'd be looking for a breakout failure. Maybe a stop run down towards this liquidity and then a reversal up If we were looking for a long All right coming right up to nine o'clock as we do this anyway I hope the webinar was of some interest or help to people Thank you very much for coming along and watching. I am going to close the stream now. So thank you again