 Hundreds of thousands of Afghan migrants have been fleeing Pakistan as a country-wide crackdown against them has begun. The Pakistan government had ordered all undocumented migrants to leave by October 31st. While the government has stated, these orders do not target any specific nationality, a large proportion of refugees in Pakistan are Afghans and it is clear that they will face the brunt of this action. Moreover, since the Taliban take over at least 600,000 more Afghan refugees are estimated to have entered Pakistan. Now with these expulsion orders ahead of winter, an estimated 1.7 million undocumented Afghan migrants are facing an uncertain fate with a rampant economic crisis under the Taliban regime and escalating hunger and poverty. Heela Najibullah, author and researcher and daughter of former Afghan President Mohammad spoke to people's dispatch about this developing situation. I think the current refugee crisis that is taking place across the border of Pakistan, Afghanistan needs to be looked at within a global, a larger global migration context and politics and then within the relationship of Afghanistan and Pakistan as two countries. And I must say that the current issue is extremely political, whether at the global context we analyze it or at the regional level between the two countries. I will start at the global context. You see the notion of the fact that migration is sort of tried to be restricted in the European continent and mostly an agenda in EU itself shows the fact that the European Union or the countries and members of European Union are trying to come up with policies that could restrict the flow of refugees. We saw this, for example, in 2014-15, where Germany had signed an agreement with the Afghan Republic in terms of repatriating Afghan refugees. Austria was one other country that did that. And then countries like Denmark, Sweden, and then Norway that was not a part of the EU were also promoting for Afghans to go back and identify where are the safe zones. So for example, if Helmand was where the war was during the war on terrorism, then let's specify areas in Kabul where these people could be returned to Afghanistan. Post the fall of the Afghan government in August of 2021, when the flow started again out of Afghanistan, it had actually two to three main reasons. One was the fact that Afghans who worked in the previous government, their lives were in treth and they had to come out for their own survival and their ways of coming out because we were a landlocked country or Pakistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan. And each one of these countries had very restrictive ways for Afghans to transit or to stay in order to find a settlement situation through UNITCR or through embassies directly to go to a third country. And then the second group of refugees were basically Afghans who did not have means of income and the economy situation is so bad in Afghanistan that a lot of people, as you know, you know, are under the poverty line. So for them, this is a way to earn money and send back. And therefore you had the flow and the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan is extremely poor. So that was one of the other reasons why they would come to earn money. And then the third class is basically or the Afghan youth or the Afghan families who won their women or girls to be educated. They want to have a future and the current political scenario in Afghanistan doesn't allow them or give them a hope for a future that they could perhaps, you know, have. So these are the main reasons why Afghans leave not only to Pakistan, but to Iran, Uzbekistan or Tajikistan or other countries. The means of like, for example, when I left Afghanistan, it was by air to India. But right now you need visas to come to India. And that doesn't happen. You're not given visas. Or, for example, the the the Finnish government had announced that Afghan women will be given asylum by by the Finland government because of what the trustees they are going through under the Taliban regime. However, in order for them to seek asylum, they have to end up with a mahram either in Iran or Pakistan and then get in touch with the Norwegian Embassy to see whether their paperwork will be processed. So it's an extremely complex situation where Afghans not necessarily want to stay in Pakistan long term, but, you know, find a way to be resettled or find a way of protection, at least in the in the short term, till they figure out what's the political situation of Afghanistan. And then there are those who have come for just economic reasons. What is happening now in this global context, I think. There was if I may add, there was a trilateral, for example, agreement between UNICEF Iran and Pakistan and Afghan government, how they would manage the situation of refugees. And what's really interesting to to understand is that what does this agreement entail? Because the money that is given to you and it's your to manage the Afghan migrants or Afghan refugees and asylum seekers in Iran and Pakistan. How long are they supposed to stay in these countries for a resettlement? Are they supposed to be kept there? And so we don't have a clear understanding of this kind of new agreements that have come up, which basically then play out at the local level where, for example, Pakistan wants to play the economic card globally with its allies if they have some sort of spat, let's say, and they just wanted to say, OK, we have the control over the refugees and therefore we will show you unless you hear our demand either economically or politically, they do exactly the same thing with Afghanistan. So to just give them an understanding that we're the big brother and you are pretty much inclined to listen to us and, you know, accept our demands politically or in terms of, you know, security situation and therefore then the card of refugees are played. And what is really sad to to observe in this in this whole context is that the Afghan refugees in the past 40 years of the Afghan conflict have been a tool first in the Cold War. They were a tool to be used for the war against the the Soviet Union and the the leftist government in Afghanistan. And now the refugees are used once again to put pressure economically or politically on the Afghan government and yet seek some sort of a bargaining card with countries in the West or in the United States. I think it's a very dire situation for 1.2 million Afghans who are forcibly deported against the International Refugee Law of 1951 to Afghanistan. So the the consequences are extremely difficult for those that are returned also because the condition that the Pakistan government has put for refugees before return is that they cannot take above assets of 50,000 Pakistani rupees back to Afghanistan and or their cattle or or whatever that they have in terms of assets needs to be either sold out or even if they're sold out, then the money needs to be left because it cannot be above 50,000. So in a in a country that the 98 percent of its people are kind of under poverty line. And then you have such limitations and such rules, you know, to forcefully return them back. You are actually, you know, forcing them to go through more poverty and hunger and harsher humanitarian crisis because when they go back home, they don't have anything. So and I don't think that Taliban regime is capable of managing any of this situation because currently there is no system as such. There is no government as such. It is just a militia group that is in charge and they might, you know, have a certain, you know, procedures in place with the UN, with the UN to to bring these these people back. But I don't think financially or socially they're capable in terms of also infrastructure are capable of, you know, meeting the needs of the returnees that are forced back. So the the situation is, first of all, that they are pushed to hunger, poverty. They will have no roof on top of their heads, no health care. A majority of the Afghan, you know, hospitals or or or having less number of doctors. And because after the fall of the the government, you know, they left the country. And this was one of the major crisis in Iraq. The earthquake where you had lack of doctors. So we we're heading towards a situation that will be extremely precarious for the Afghans themselves. And then for the international community, who constantly says that they have a challenge raising funds for the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. Just briefly on the deterioration of ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan, I think more than anything else, what the Afghans are understanding, I mean, that the notion of strategic depth and the the destructive politics between the two neighbors had the political elite always against against the Pakistan policies and the government. However, now we realize that this feeling of being insulted and being discriminated and being you know, pushed to to all the angles and isolated is also at people level where the where the Pakistan government is now forcing Afghans, you know, to to leave or put economic pressure on them. And this is something that I think the the people of Afghanistan are feeling extremely you know, sad about and hurt by because they always felt that, you know, at least people to people relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan was good, even though politically there was always, you know, conflicting interests. So I see that the relationship not only at the political level would be a challenge, but also at the local level amongst the people of Afghanistan, which I think is far more important to consider than what, let's say, the the Taliban one versus you know, the Taliban one versus the the X member political members of of the Republic from Pakistan.