 Dweudio'r ffordd ar gyfer, maen nhw wedi amddangos 13 November. Mae'r cyfrifwyr yn y dyfodol, ac mae'r cwerthio am gwybodaeth i'r gwneud, yn y dyfu gwirioneddau sy'n gwybod a gwneud yn y cyfrifwyr yn gyfodol. Mae'r cyfrifwyr yn y cyfrifwyr yn ddechrau yn y cyfrifwyr yn gyfodol yn y dyfodol. Mae'r cyfrifwyr yn gweithio'r gwirioneddau, ac rwy'n gofyn i gael ar y dyn nhw. yn fwylau'r ddweud i'r cyfodol i'r cyffredinol, ac yn dweud beth o'r cyffredinol i'w dweud i'r cyffredinol, a'r rhai i'w rhan o'r cyffredinol, i'w ddweud i'w ddweud i'w ddweud i'w ddweud i'w ddweud i'w ddweud, ac rhai i'w ddweud i'w ddweud. Felly, yn y bwysig i'w ddweud, yn cyfrifwyr gyffredinol, Cwrinsigwyr, rwy'n ei fod yn fwy o'r eu rôl, o wneud o glyweddau, sy'n gwybr ddim yn sgwrdd ar y llai'r sesnes gweld, nid o'r roi'r llwyddiadau i'r sgwrdd yn ffordd yn ei weld, i'n dd Ludw'r csau ddim yn llwyllur o'r gwahau. Rwy'n ddes i'n ddim yn dweud i'r gwahau, a'n yn dweud i'r dystod o'r roi llwyddiadau o'u cyffredinol, ondd fel jei anoddiaeth ymlaen iawn, ond dyne ddim yn cyfannedig Aberthydd, mae gennym yn cael ddinoi, cyrraedd, lle weird yng ngyfledd a'r cymhwy, gyda ni'w ddweud o'r troch iddyn nhw, ac yna i elwodol? Mae'r cyfeirledd yn ymdegol o'r newid gynnigieil, dwi'n sgwrdd ni gymryd. Mae'r cyfeirledd yn ddod yn yr unrhyw yng ngyfledd, oherwydd i'w ffordd i'w ymdegol o これwyd. Mae penydd i'w unrhyw o'r llwyffydd o'r llwyffydd, lle sydd e'w gweithio o'r llwyffydd yn y gwahod litech yn yr ymdwy. hyfforddiwod Alywodol yn 1100 o gyfathol swyddiadau yw yw'r stylu. Cymru, mae'r ydych chi'n meddwl yn hystyried, yna yn gyfrifiadau yn y cyflwynol y byd, ac mae gan y cyfrifiadau, dyna yna yng ngweithio ei fod yn ddeulogol, ac mae yna rhaid i'r ystod sydd wedi cynnig o'r byd, o bod mae'r rhaid i'r ystod yn cynnig o'r byd, sydd golwch yn llwyfodol fel y llyfr, daithio ei fod yn gwahodd ar y gwyno, mae hyn y gallwn cyfwynau bod hynny'n gweithio. Cysylltu yn 1466 ym mhobwch yn ymweld yn unwyddiad. So mae'n fyddi'r ysgolwch yn ein gael ar y genaf yr ysgolwch. Ond ydych chi'n gwneud o'r llun o'r llun o'r llun yw'r llun. Mae yw'r llun yn yr adeil. Felly mae rai'n cael eu tuwch, roeddwn i'n gwneud o'r llun o'r llun o'r llun. Dwi'n rhoi nesaf oherwydd, mae'r ystyried eich 5 dollar yma'i rhoi ond oingynnyddio fel hynny'n gorffodol. Felly mae yw ddim yn gallu cael ei cael hynny o wneud a bod yn gallu eich hyn yn ohon. Felly mae'n meddwl i'r llai yn ddesunio. Fydw i'r hynny'n ddegwyd, dw i'n meddwl pryn sy'n tremp ydynt yn rhoi ddaw, faint fel ychydig yn siŵr yn rhan oherwydd mae'n meddwl am y llyfr, felly mae'n meddwl o'r hyn i'ch diadwyd arno os y holl. fi gennym infinitely 95% figured in summer hereSonry of last night. Cos, of course, Trump was speaking. It was pretty much a non event, I have to say. I mean, I came back from the gym first time in three months other than going to the sauna to watch the back end of his speech, and the only thing of note, I would say, that he said was he said a deal could happen soon, So while this is nothing new and is kind of in line with what he's been saying, the S&P, of course, has been on this massive FOMO push higher, and it's kind of like without this overall confirmation yet, and the idea that he could still be hawkish with the terrace about the agreement that maybe stocks just needed to come down a touch, and that is kind of what happens. I was looking at the S&P for an opportunity to get short last night, and we had this trend line that had broken. Let me just get this on from the upside. You also had a previous low, and it did come up towards that point. I'm just sort of looking to get in on that. I didn't ride it all the way down, but you can see a decent push once we got into seven o'clock and beyond, and that is at that time that gold started pushing higher. So that correlation working okay. Perhaps the market is just sort of taking the no final agreement yet with a bit of an unwind. Of course, this market has just been on an incredible drive higher. You can see that longer term trend line here breaking on the first of the month, and since then we had gone yesterday to that high at 50 points higher from then. So a decent push will come on to a record that has been broken in the S&P's first time this had happened since 2012. So it will come on to that later. You're not just witness history with the 3100, but also something else. Headlines overnight, the main Bloomberg title, the market wrap, stocks retreat as investors' mole trade, I think that is fair enough. Just trying to gauge what's happened so far in the weekend, what has been relatively quiet, but this day for me is going to be on paper anyway, the better one. Overnight headlines to be aware of, the Royal Bank of New Zealand, sorry they're getting words mixed up, the RBNZ. Keeping rates on hold, which was a bit of a shock to market, so 16 of 21 Bloomberg economists were expecting a cut. The reasons for the rate on hold, there were signs of domestic economy will stop slowing and that inflation will pick up. So actually the currency overnight and into this morning jumped pretty decent move here. This is going to have a quick look over at the Kiwi. 1% on that announcement and it's retained a lot of that push higher, still only a tiny bit off those highs. Decent move following that. A couple of comments will go through in a moment. They also said economic development since August where it was the last time they had a cut. Do not warrant a cut now, but they will add further monetary stimulus if needed. So a wait and see approach, much like the Fed and the RBA, which have all this year cut free times and have all in their last meeting put rates on hold. So a bit of a theme coming there from those three central banks, the RBNZ starting things off in the beginning of the year by cutting. They've all now cut free times and have all kept rates on hold. Of course, the RBA most recently doing that last week before the RBNZ, the 30th of October for the Fed. So a couple of comments from the RBNZ. We expect economic growth to remain subdued over the remainder of the calendar year. Still domestic economic activity is expected to increase during 2020 supported by low interest rates, higher wage growth and increased government spending and investment. The low level of the OCR has flowed through the lower lending rates more generally, which support spending and investment. The interest rates will need to remain at low levels for a prolonged period to ensure inflation reaches the midpoint of our target range. We will continue to monitor economic developments and remain prepared to act as required. So are we now starting to see a theme across markets where we've done the cuts and we're now looking to go more on a hold basis throughout next year and then potentially look for cuts for hikes to come back in, especially if the trade deal is going to get agreed. That could well be the case because of course a lot of the times where these central banks were cutting rates, the main reason or one of the main reasons they were always citing was the trade war situation and how that had led to global slowdown as well. So the reverse of that, the rewind of that and we're going to have to start looking to raise rates as global growth starts to pick up again. Of course yesterday while trade comments on China was limited, we did have Trump attacking the Fed. This is nothing new of course, but a couple of his comments were of keeping an eye on how they are. We are actively competing with nations who openly cut interest rates and now many actually are getting paid when they pay off their loan known as negative interest. Clarida did come out and say later on that Trump, he doesn't know if Trump actually does want negative interest rates and there's an article not long ago we went through from the beginning of September where Trump was talking about negative interest rates but how the US didn't really want it. So more hot air from Trump here, but some other comments. Give me some of that money. I want some of that money. Our Federal Reserve doesn't let us do it. Trump said, which obviously drew a laughter from a crowd. It puts us in a competitive disadvantage to other countries. We're actually paying high interest rate, high interest. We should be paying by far the lowest interest. After noting the gains of course on the stock markets which are up 25% or sorry are up massively in his spell. He was saying they could have risen a further 25% if we had a Fed that worked with us. Also an article just going on to talk about a Fed policy. There's an interesting point here where George Bush was who criticised the then Fed Chairman at the time Alan Greenspan for costing him re-elections. I wonder Trump is wanting to try to get the Fed on the side and of course we know that the equity markets are his baby. So if he was to get anywhere near that 25% push higher for next year, well you can pretty much say he is a shwin for the re-election. Going forward as we get into more mid-part of next year where the polls start making more of a difference for the election any chance that Trump isn't going to get that stocks have got to come down quite aggressively you would say. So yes Trump yesterday bit of a let down in terms of market activity but having another go against the Fed. We do have Powell speaking today so worth keeping a watch on that four o'clock UK time as he speaks in the morning in the US. Of two days likely to signal again that this week that monetary policy is on hold. But saying the belief as well that he may steer clear of action through 2020 which would be a historic anomaly. So I'll just go back to the top here so we're really witnessing history today or potentially shall we say. That would be the first time that the rates of monetary policies being sort of kept on hold. The Fed has changed policy in one direction or another in each of the last 10 presidential polling years. So the Fed really not worried about changing rates either way during an election you can see here going back to 1979 through non election years and election years there's not really much difference at all. So the Fed perhaps right now not expected to change policy next year or this is what Powell is perhaps going to suggest today. During 2016 of course they didn't do it before the election they did it after that November election as well. So Powell likely to keep things in line and say monetary policy is on hold any comments digressing from that will be of note. The S&P creating history not just by hitting 3100 but the 25th time that the equity benchmark avoided falling in consecutive sessions. The longest run since 2012 which is quite remarkable and it really is that whole idea of FOMO really taking over. Yesterday we didn't get a confirmation at all and stocks hardly came down. We also was hawkish on the idea that if there is no agreement we're going to put the tariffs back on and stocks are still high for now. So this FOMO I think is the main reason we are dragging high. You speak to everyone. Surely it's got to come down at some point but the buying the dip mentality is still there and these dips are getting smaller when they're getting bought into. In this case over the last 25 days any down day is then being bought up. The S&P 500 last fell more than 1% on October the 8th so over a month and then since then there has been no daily loss which has exceeded 0.4%. So that S&P 500 25 day run you can see going back here it has been a grinder which we know is what stocks love. What's going to get us down there? Well Trump is starting to attack the Fed again. He's near a deal with the trade. So he's perhaps going to step up that hawkish rhetoric and this deal is not going to get done to get the Fed on side ahead of next year. Because if trade talks progress we get a first part of that deal and that continues to look positive into next year. The Fed aren't going to cut rates elsewhere. Other central banks aren't going to cut rates so surely then equities do have to come under a bit of pressure. While obviously you know I'm a long term equity bull I would be surprised to see this market just grind all the way to next election. I do believe there will be a bit of a correction if you like before this time next year being on those all time highs. But for now with FOMO taking over stocks still as you can see pretty much bang on all time highs. 3100 tested yesterday unbelievably. Also yes overnight headlines regarding Brexit. So what the papers are saying probably the main point of note here on Farage is that or the story on Farage that he has been urged to remove more seats in the general election. Take his chips off the table so he's come under renewed pressure to give Boris Johnson a clear run in labour at laboring in key marginal seats. This was something I was saying to Ant yesterday on the pound and obviously we had this decent push yesterday on the idea that Trump is unwinding 300 or so seats. And yes fine the pound absolutely should push higher off that. But it still brings in a bit of a worry that he is going to run seats in those labour and live them areas where if he does win he's just going to hold those chips where it goes down the line and maybe conservatives then need the Brexit party for a coalition. And that isn't pound positive that's pound negative. So for me this pound move not really justify yes a bit of upside fine but for it to really continue. Farage has to come out completely and unwind because as long as he's there as long as he's taking any votes away from conservative regardless of the place the constituency is going that's going to increase the chance of a potential coalition. Increase the chance of a hard Brexit no deal i.e. the deal now not getting put through and that is just more uncertainty for the pound. So in the meantime while it is I don't see the pound pushing higher until polls really start to change. The Times Overnight reporting that the Conservatives are opening up a 14 point lead over Labour on the back of those Farage comments so fair enough but how long that can last unless he was to withdraw more Brexit party candidates. I'm not too convinced on that looking at the pound on that longer term chart where we are trading in the strategy report on Monday we're talking about where the pound could get to on a conservative majority. And I think we definitely could get up towards these highs that we had from September 18 March 2019 135 36 I see that as a as a decent opportunity. So much like the stock market I do see a dip buying opportunity if we were to come lower in the pound. But if Farage is to still go through with running for all these seats I think that is a problem that needs to be taken into consideration before that result does come through. Having a look at the calendar for today it is a good one and speaking of the pound we have some inflation numbers out at 930. The year on year figure they're expected at 1.6 the core 1.7 so worth keeping an eye on that obviously we know the pound is not going to be moved too much by data. But remember the NPC just last week a couple of the members there wanting a cut of rates so worth keeping an eye on this data just to see in the medium term what they may be thinking ahead of that next meeting. But as said then as said now Brexit and of course the general election are going to hold a lot more waiting than a monthly data release into the latter part of the morning. We have EU industrial production at 10am and then US inflation numbers at 1.30 so already shaping up to be a pretty good day ahead of us. And with the bank holiday we had a Monday the API inventories are out this evening rather than last night so of course no DOE today that will be tomorrow. But we do have the power testimony testifying I should say four o'clock and a couple of fed speakers after that as well. So on paper looking like a pretty good day the rest of the week how it's shaping up Thursday also you've got some Australian data overnight in Chinese numbers UK retail sales quite a lot of fed speak the DOE numbers. And then Friday we've got the US retail sales as well so the week begins now I would say and in summary of overnight last night Trump speaking was a non event. But FOMO has overtaken the S&P to drag us higher so a bit of an unwind last night from that that the deal could happen soon and it's not happened. And then tariffs could be hiked without an agreement so gold getting a bit of respite on that S&P coming down a touch. The currency pairs the pound and the euro off a bit of dollar strength have been drifting lower but nothing really more than that. The RBNZ keeping rates on hold which has led to a push higher for the Kiwi the Aussie following suit in the morning but that's been paired back quite dramatically already as well. Brexit update really it's a case of waiting for those polls and to see what Farage does with these seats is he going to run or not and of course looking forward to the data as well. Any questions please do let me know. See beyond the mic throughout the day and be posting some of the technical setups on the Twitter as well. Catch you all in the chat and hope you have a good trading session.